muraliravi wrote:srirambhartur wrote:Muraliravi, I think too much is being made out about AAP and the Challenge. People are smart enough to see through it. BJP relies on strong state leaders who have a very firm connect with the voter base. Rajasthan, MP, Chattisgarh, Gujarat, Bihar, Goa make up 133 seats where there are strong State level leaders who can pull through 100 seats (If the recent assembly election results are anything to go by) . HP, Uttarakhand, Karnataka, Delhi, Jharkhand make up another 58 seats where its always a 50-50 so if they can pull 30 from there, it becomes. That leaves you with one big state i.e. UP with 80 seats. BJP should pull up at least 30 seats (Thanks to Akhilesh/Mulayam and company). Now we have Punjab and Maharashra where they contest with SAD and SS, both the states added up will give another 20 seats. that brings the tally to 180 seats. BJD has already shown an inclination recently, CBN in Andhra Pie is a potential ally, Amma and Didi are in for NAMO. So chill lets not make a monster out of poor AK. Let him first try and govern a small city state before he or his supporters can think about him going for the top job.
Based on your analysis, BJP will get on its own 150-160 seats. I can tell you (though not many will like it) that with 150-160, all sorts of wheeling dealing will happen to stop BJP. They need at least 175. Its not about AAP. AAP is just one weapon. When you go to war, you have many weapons. BSP is another, MNS is another. Analyze each one of these weapons, collective effect of all these has good chance of pushing BJP below 160. That is their target buddy, they all know BJP will be single largest party, but that is not enuf.
I just heard about talks going on from the NAMO front to bring in Rajnikanth into BJP in TN and Sourav Ganguly might just say yes in WB. Don't know how that will impact the fortunes in the states where they are "Zero".