Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 23 Dec 2013 17:00

I hope this is true...

>>Pee Vee ‏@PingVond 22 Dec
Heard a whisper, NaMo planning to pitch in Kalyan Singh as next BJP President in mid-2015! He's already at it!

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 23 Dec 2013 17:44

RajeshA wrote:Kerala Christian Orthodox Church declares support to @narendramodi
Still unclear which Church exactly. ......

This could be one of the Jacobite Churches (either Orthodox, or their rival faction). There is one sect of X'ians in Kerala who is really harping on the fact that they are Indians, and do not tolerate any person outside the country as their religious head. And they have always been favourable to BJP. This church also have two factions, and if I get it right the reason for the dispute is when one faction considers the Arch Bishop of Antioch as their top religious figure, the other faction wants it to be one which is based at Kerala. This group are not Catholics (Roman or Latin).

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 23 Dec 2013 18:19

RajeshA wrote:MAJOR BREAKING NEWS

Jayakanth TL ‏@jkanthtl: Kerala Christian Orthodox Church declares support to @narendramodi

Still unclear which Church exactly. But it means a major reorientation of Kerala politics. It also means that the "secular" fort of "enlightened" Hindus, Muslims, Christians and (West-sponsored) Dalitist "neo-Buddhists" has been breached.

I believe it is an autocephalous church in Kerala.

I think they are referring to the Malankara Orthodox Syrian Church.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 23 Dec 2013 18:20

Slightly OT post but didnt know where to post and since this is the most watched topic on BRF, I am posting it here. Mods please move it to a more suitable thread, if you deem so.

Francois Gautier is building a Shivaji Maharaj Museum of Indian History in Pune and is need of some funds. He is one of the very ardent pro-Hindu journalist and worker and would request BRFites to donate. I have and would urge you guys too. I can post the details of account here, or you can send a mail to me (kittoo4202004 at gmail). The trust is registered a tax benefit will be given.

Just as a declaration, I am in no way related to the trust or Francois.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Dec 2013 20:20

Dileep saar had once published a taxonomy of the various churches and their followers in kerala. the old catholic and syrian churches I believe were the oldest and not EJish. so no surprise they are doing the logical & nationalist thing and expressing displeasure with the INC-Left crook duopoly.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 23 Dec 2013 21:23

panduranghari wrote:^^ Isn't that Syrian Catholic church whose patron saint is St. Anthony of defence?

Nopes Antony is catholic. This is te original orthodox church

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 23 Dec 2013 21:27

so is that only particular christian caste that supports modi? would they be castified as chaiwala caste?

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 23 Dec 2013 21:39

krisna wrote:
Santosh wrote:So how big was the show of strength? 6-8 Lakhs?
Police say it is 3+lakhs.
Source undie tv

The capacity of BKC ground is about 60-70K. Even less if the parking has taken up some of its land. Don't know where these numbers are coming from.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 23 Dec 2013 23:05

how can both be wrong?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 23 Dec 2013 23:45

Here's a graphic of the Kerala christian sects. The original Malankara orthodox folks are the ones in question.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 24 Dec 2013 00:03

SaiK wrote:so is that only particular christian caste that supports modi? would they be castified as chaiwala caste?

Orthodox church head denies backing Modi's candidature

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 24 Dec 2013 00:04

A biographical video on Modi.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 24 Dec 2013 00:14

kujlies ahead! jan lokpaal in 2 weeks flat! watch out and zero in your radars towards dilli.

all aap a sudden, dixit is even erased from history.. and i'm sure more kujli to ma-beta co.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 24 Dec 2013 00:17

The whole video is worth watching, but try to watch from 25:00 to 25:50

hanumadu wrote:A biographical video on Modi.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 24 Dec 2013 02:42

Have Not Hit The Intellectual Bottom Yet

Modi Is No Champion of India's Women SONIA FALEIRO

Vadodara, INDIA — The mother, an animal herder in the western Indian state of Gujarat, watched in horror as her 3-year-old daughter was snatched from her. The kidnapper, an upper-caste woman from a nearby village who was unable to conceive, had been encouraged by her in-laws to help herself to a low-caste child. The mother pleaded with the village council and police for her daughter’s return. But both were dismissive. So she approached the unofficial Nari Adalat, or Women’s Court. Five members of the court walked to the village where the girl was being held, and confronted her abductors. They refused to budge until the family let them search their house, where they found the girl hidden beneath a pile of mattresses in a musty storage room. They brought her home.
In Gujarat, a state of 60 million, a rural, grassroots network of courts has emerged to assist women shut out of more formal systems of justice. These courts originated with a few women in a Gujarat village in 1995 to combat domestic violence; today, there are at least 35 across the state, and similar tribunals in over half a dozen others. They have heard thousands of cases on everything from assault, child marriage and dowry disputes to accusations of witchcraft.
After a complaint is brought to a Nari Adalat, its members — about 15 women, ranging in age from their 20s to their 80s — walk from house to house to conduct interviews. Everyone is invited to testify. Often the courts can’t afford an office, and the meetings are held under a tree. Women habituated to a crouching silence can stand and speak freely. In a country where police are notoriously corrupt and cases can drag on for years, these amateur jurists, who are often illiterate, are seen as impartial and speedy. They typically render a verdict in only four months. And their services are often free.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 24 Dec 2013 02:45

It is....http://www.khaleejtimes.com/kt-article- ... ernational

Catholicos of the East and Malankara Metropolitan Baselios Mar Thoma Paulose II said the Church, which incidentally is one of the oldest in the entire Christendom, had no problem in supporting Modi if he will be able to ensure religious harmony.

And then he denies supporting. Of course: http://news.outlookindia.com/items.aspx?artid=822148

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 24 Dec 2013 03:25

Orthodox church denies endorsing Modi & in fact says he is "not a leader secular tolerance"

2 days ago, we had church leaders of various hues in TN endorse Jayalalitha for PM. No one raised an issue with this, even though this was tantamount to church interfering in the affairs of the state.

However, when an orthodox church supposedly endorses Modi *gasp*, all hell breaks loose. The church leader immediately has to issue a denial. Anyone remember the Darul Uloom vice-chancellor, MaulanaGhulam Mohammed Vastanvi, who got hounded out when he praised Modi?

This is secularism in India!

Anindya · Post by **Anindya** » 24 Dec 2013 03:29

OT - Secularism in India is by and large islamo-pandering. Some of it is vote bank politics, but given that this degree of islamo-pandering is also happening in countries with much smaller populations of Muslims - there may well be financial investments being made.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 24 Dec 2013 03:53

AND displease any set of majority who are supposed to be higher class by religious orientation definitions and not by economic status.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 24 Dec 2013 04:30

panduranghari wrote:^^ Isn't that Syrian Catholic church whose patron saint is St. Anthony of defence?

FWIW AK Antony's wikipedia page lists him as atheist.

Abhijit · Post by **Abhijit** » 24 Dec 2013 04:54

Maybe he is a church-going, bible-thumping atheist?

vish_mulay · Post by **vish_mulay** » 24 Dec 2013 05:35

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A._K._Antony

Same wikipage says

A. K. Antony was born into a Syrian Catholic family. He is an atheist[2] and has always assumed office by affirmation rather than by a religious oath; however, he is a devotee of Mata Amritanandamayi[3] and claims to have seen stars when she hugged him.[4]

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 24 Dec 2013 06:27

Guru log, what is the impact of Con declaring support to Jat reservation in UP?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 24 Dec 2013 06:37

Four Faces of Arvind Kejriwal

My blog post

So finally AAP has publicly accepted Congress’s offer of marriage.

Delhi citizens and indeed Indians all over the world following the going-ons in India have mixed feelings. Most do not know what to make of it, what would have been the right approach, both AAP supporters and BJP supporters are groping in the darkness of political morality and strategy. So let’s try to make head and tail of this marriage from various perspectives.

A. Hazrat Kejriwal faithfools: According to this group Arvind Kejriwal cannot do any wrong, either ethically nor strategically. If he has entered into an alliance with Congress, it still hasn’t changed his convictions. He is out to change the face of Indian politics and root out all corruption. This is the Jholawala, the city Marxist, the NGO activist view. Then there is the idealist first time student activist who finds the energy of student activism addictive, allows him to expand his social network even as it makes him feel as making a contribution to the betterment of India and society, especially as the student activist movement is led by a coalition of yuppies and jholawallahs, willing to inject the spice of cool modern (read West-inspired) cultural ambiance. Most importantly this view is shared by the “Aam Aadmi” (read middle-class) who has grown up in Delhi on a cultural diet of secularism and an ubiquitous and perennially dysfunctional and corrupt system, who has been taken in by the images broadcast by the mainstream media, and is thus more than willing to project all his hopes onto this simple looking former IT inspector.

They are willing to believe that Kejriwal did not long for power but was forced to accept CMship due to the pressure from others and their supporters who wanted to see him in power and fighting corruption.

This coalition is taking Kejriwal at his word that despite this alliance with the corruption devil, he would continue to expose corruption in high places even if it is of the devil.

B. Cautious AAP Supporters: Many Delhi citizens supported Aam Aadmi Party believing that it was the political heir to the Indians Against Corruption Movement led by Anna Hazare.

They too share the concerns of the most of the faithfools, but their support is not to the individual Arvind Kejriwal but more to the movement in general.

This group is shocked to see Arvind Kejriwal and Aam Aadmi Party agreeing to forming a government in Delhi together. If not shocked, at least this group is quite worried whether he may have made a mistake in trusting the party and its leadership. The support this group provided was qualified support and the question is whether the group was betrayed.

C. AAP is Congress’s B Team: Most of the BJP leadership as well as the BJP voters feel this way. They can see how the Indian mainstream media doted on Arvind Kejriwal. For them Arvind Kejriwal is a crook not to be trusted. He is part of Congress’s strategy to wean away urban youth away from Modi’s magnetism, and thus to stop Modi’s march to power.

According to this view, Congress and its support system in the media helped to project Arvind Kejriwal as the anti-corruption messiah. Arvind Kejriwal and indeed Aam Aadmi Party was built up to cut into BJP votes, and to channelize all the anti-corruption and thus anti-Congress votes to AAP, rather than allow these to fall into BJP’s basket.

During the elections, BJP was focused on taking down Congress, and almost completely ignored Aam Aadmi Party not expecting them to put up such an impressive showing.

This marriage of AAP and Congress only confirms their strong suspicions that AAP is Congress’s B Team, and helped Congress to steal an election which should have brought BJP to power. According to this view, Kejriwal fooled the people and basically did a Chiranjeevi on Delhi citizens.

Many were however expecting that Kejriwal would not take the bait and refuse to join Congress, as that would destroy his credibility, especially as he wishes to fight Lok Sabha elections too, and may have dreamed of winning the re-election, especially in the aftermath of such a very good electoral performance. In the re-election more of Congress vote-banks may have gone over to AAP thus enabling AAP to get a majority. BJP supporters were feeling that Arvind Kejriwal may feel over-confident, also thinking on similar lines and opt for new elections.

However now that the marriage has been solemnized, BJP supporters feel that Kejriwal has bowed to the wishes of his MLAs to taste power. BJP feels that he has taken the bait and gone into the trap set by them. Now it makes Kejriwal vulnerable to the charge of duplicity.

BJP had opted to not stake their claim on government formation and acted honorably. BJP feels that they are on a strong wicket and sooner than later either Arvind Kejriwal would make a fool of himself in power or the Congress would withdraw support to AAP sooner or later, especially if Arvind Kejriwal tries to live up to his stated agenda of anti-corruption. If he doesn’t follow up on his promises, then Kejriwal becomes a dead duck, and stops being a serious ideological challenger to BJP.

The interests of Congress seem apparent to these BJP supporters. Congress wants to avoid a re-election right away, as well as stop BJP from coming to power and thus is willing to extend support to AAP.

To some extent the fact that AAP received more votes and seats than Congress, and in fact AAP hurt Congress more than they hurt BJP, does cause some cognitive dissonance as to why would Congress allow itself to be decimated by AAP. It weakens the theory that AAP is Congress’s B Team. This weakness makes it difficult for those holding this view to convince others of AAP’s duplicity. With this marriage BJP feels that it would be easier to make this case.

I believe this view is restricted and does not think everything through.

D. Kejriwal can have his cake and eat it too: This is the view I hold.

The main danger to the Dynasty comes from Narendra Modi. Stopping Narendra Modi is all his detractors think of. Kejriwal and his image as a corruption fighter is in fact the only ace the dynasty has up its sleeve to stop Modi. Mainstream media does not tire from projecting Arvind Kejriwal as if he was himself a PM candidate running against Narendra Modi.

If Arvind Kejriwal can entice the urban youth away from Modi, there is a chance that Modi would then not get a good majority and thus would have to either have to make way for a more amenable BJP leader or accept the poisoned chalice of support of “secular party” agents thus hindering him in translating his agenda.

So Arvind Kejriwal has to be bolstered at all costs.

So the question was how best to bolster Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party? The Congress could have chosen to not extend outside support to AAP.

This would have kept Arvind Kejriwal squeaky clean, but it would also shown to the voter that a vote for AAP is a wasted vote, as the citizens do not get a government in the end. So all those looking for stability would have chosen to vote BJP next time.
In fact people would have cast aspersions on Arvind Kejriwal that he is afraid of embracing responsibility and AAP is nothing more than a protest party unsuited for doing the hard work of governing.
Thirdly if Arvind Kejriwal had opted not to form a government, his own MLAs would have left him and joined up with BJP. This would have given a jolt to the idealist charm of AAP.
If Arvind Kejriwal has to stand up to Narendra Modi someday, he has to be able to show some executive experience.
The most important consideration was however that a hung assembly would have led to President’s rule and re-elections which would probably have coincided with the general elections. That would have put Congress and AAP at a serious disadvantage. For one thing AAP would have been chained to Delhi elections, as they would have had to pledge all their meager resources to Delhi, and Kejriwal would have been thus unavailable for campaigning across the country in Lok Sabha elections supporting AAP candidates. Also with assembly elections coinciding with Lok Sabha elections, Modimania would have been at its highest and BJP would have swept away both AAP and Congress from the field, even in Delhi.

So due to all these considerations it was felt by both Congress and AAP that Arvind Kejriwal’s loss of political virginity and idealistic appeal to Congress can be otherwise offset and in fact be bolstered even more.

Most detractors of Arvind Kejriwal, especially those in BJP, take it for granted that Arvind Kejriwal would not go after Congress corruption once in office, as otherwise Congress would withdraw support. Actually they revel in this certainty.

There is no such certainty. By taking over power in Delhi, Kejriwal has eaten his cake, his reputation.

But the understanding with Congress is that he is still going to have his reputation in the end, in fact it would be multiplied even more.

What we assume is that Sonia’s and Congress’s interests are identical. They are not. In order to let Arvind Kejriwal win, Sonia started shifting her vote-banks through the local Congress controllers towards AAP, even as it decimated Congress MLA candidates. Sonia Gandhi got the mainstream media to do carpet bombing of Delhi citizens with news and interviews of Arvind Kejriwal and his movement and tried to project the animosity between AAP and Congress as real.

So the AAP-Congress plan is to have Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal discover some big corruption scandal against some prominent Congress leader, possibly against Sheila Dixit herself. Even a scam pointing culpability directly at the dynasty itself is not unthinkable. Such a scam and the following attack by CM Arvind Kejriwal would give him even more credibility. The thing is all these scams are going to be discovered anyway if Modi comes to power, so better let one’s own man uncover one or two of them and use these to bolster his image.

So to keep the pretense of genuine opposition by Arvind Kejriwal to Congress corruption, most probably Congress would pull the rug sometime in March or early April, a few weeks before the Lok Sabha elections. This would allow Arvind Kejriwal to hog the limelight with his attack on Congress corruption or even Dynasty-based corruption. Impressed by his selfless pursuit of anti-corruption struggle where Arvind Kejriwal even endangers his CMship, many voters in cities around the country would vote for AAP candidates. Instead of NaMo being at the spearhead of anti-corruption drive against Congress and Dynasty, Arvind Kejriwal would be able to don this mantle, or at least the mainstream media would try their level best to put it on his head. Arvind Kejriwal would be projected as somewhat who sacrificed his position as CM for his principles.

This approach would then confirm the faith of the faithfools of Hazrat Kejriwal. It would also allay the fears of those who thought Arvind Kejriwal was compromised by Congress. And in fact this theater may even attract more votes who did not believe in Arvind Kejriwal or AAP earlier, as they would see themselves proven wrong about him. In this case it would be difficult to not see the rakshasa as a devta.

So what happens then? Does Arvind Kejriwal have to pay anything? Of course not! Congress would withdraw support and Lt. Governor of Delhi would declare President’s Rule in Delhi. The fun part of it would be that if done in March, it would be too late to hold elections for Delhi assembly together with Lok Sabha elections. So Kejriwal would be free, even from CMship, to campaign across the country on his “anti-corruption” agenda. Also there would be no danger of AAP MLAs rebelling against Kejriwal as he would again be upheld as a new prophet of anti-corruption, unlike now where Kejriwal is being seen with suspicion holding hands with Congress.

Once the Lok Sabha elections are over, and before the Lt. Governor is changed by the next government at the Center, the Congress legislators would again pledge their support to AAP. If that looks too suspicious, in the aftermath of the Congress rout in 2014, the Delhi Congress could simply rename itself and superficially cut its ties to parent Congress, and thus give Arvind Kejriwal their support, under a new name!

So before the new government takes over at the Center, Delhi would again have a stable Arvind Kejriwal led government, perhaps this time including the “erstwhile” Delhi Congress MLAs formally into the government.

So Kejriwal gets to stay as Delhi CM for a full 5 year term, i.e. unless he is made PM by some third front, AND at the same time Kejriwal receives both a boost from exposing some scam just before elections and can keep his image as anti-corruption crusader intact.

Arvind Kejriwal can have his cake and eat it too!

BJP’s only chance is to break away MLAs of Congress or of AAP right now. Make them resign on principle and force a reelection. Congress MLAs can resign by exposing Sonia’s hand in the defeat of many Congress MLAs through her support to AAP. AAP MLAs can resign citing Arvind Kejriwal’s duplicitous move to form a government with the support of Congress.

If the Delhi BJP does not do this now, then there is a real possibility of them sitting in opposition benches for at least the next 5 years even though they came so close to power. Much worse would be that Arvind Kejriwal would be ballooned by Sonia Gandhi to a size of NaMo just before elections through the media and thus stop the Modi juggernaut just enough to deny him a free hand at Center even if he does become the PM.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 24 Dec 2013 07:02

Singha wrote:Dileep saar had once published a taxonomy of the various churches and their followers in kerala. the old catholic and syrian churches I believe were the oldest and not EJish. so no surprise they are doing the logical & nationalist thing and expressing displeasure with the INC-Left crook duopoly.

I never miss an opportunity to inform Westerners that Christianity came to India hundreds of years before Western Europe. They are invariably ignorant about this.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 24 Dec 2013 07:40

Sikularism is a holy cow in BRF.Mods will pounce on chatter-jis if we dare to tell the truth everyone knows.

To expect any support from christaians and muslims to Narendrabhai is wishful thinking.This has nothing to do with GOVERNANCE.It is the inherent hatred the value systems have for the native religion.The local franchisees of ME cults will vote against BJP if they have even a whiff of an alternative.They will consolidate against BJP.

Also by the very nature of BJPs ideology,Narendrabhai is not in the reckoning in coastal andhra,most of TN,NE christian states.The good news in TN is ADMK will keep out Congress and allies.

Its a harsh truth but better to face truth than have illusions.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Dec 2013 08:02

svenkat wrote:Sikularism is a holy cow in BRF.Mods will pounce on chatter-jis if we dare to tell the truth everyone knows.

There's a good reason for the rule. Posters have historically demonstrated little sense of self-moderation when it comes to religion, politics or a combination of both. Emotions cloud thinking, resulting in the use of language and characterization that they would never use in the real world company of people of said minorities. The task of the moderators is to moderate and ensure posters don't turn on each other.

The rule will only be relaxed if people collectively demonstrate over the course of months, that they can converse without making it personal. Considering that both off-topic and nukkad were cleaned within the last week due to posters turning on each other, that is clearly not going to happen anytime soon.

debadutta · Post by **debadutta** » 24 Dec 2013 08:59

Hari Seldon wrote:Yup, admittedly the Mumbai speech lacked punch. 'cept when LBT was mentioned. Well, law of averages working, I guess. Happens. But MH is oh so terribly important.

Now, Hope NM takes on Odisha next. The Naveen types have grown fat and lazy sans any competent opposition only.

Ya sure. Neither NM nor any Sr. leader of BJP bothered to visit the state post phailin. No words / no nothing , where as BJD govt did all the work on the ground and proved themselves. Now people should just forget everything and jump into the BJP bandwagon !

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 24 Dec 2013 10:23

RajeshA wrote:Four Faces of Arvind Kejriwal

My blog post

So finally AAP has publicly accepted Congress’s offer of marriage.

Delhi citizens and indeed Indians all over the world following the going-ons in India have mixed feelings. Most do not know what to make of it, what would have been the right approach, both AAP supporters and BJP supporters are groping in the darkness of political morality and strategy. So let’s try to make head and tail of this marriage from various perspectives.

A. Hazrat Kejriwal faithfools: According to this group Arvind Kejriwal cannot do any wrong, either ethically nor strategically. If he has entered into an alliance with Congress, it still hasn’t changed his convictions. He is out to change the face of Indian politics and root out all corruption. This is the Jholawala, the city Marxist, the NGO activist view. Then there is the idealist first time student activist who finds the energy of student activism addictive, allows him to expand his social network even as it makes him feel as making a contribution to the betterment of India and society, especially as the student activist movement is led by a coalition of yuppies and jholawallahs, willing to inject the spice of cool modern (read West-inspired) cultural ambiance. Most importantly this view is shared by the “Aam Aadmi” (read middle-class) who has grown up in Delhi on a cultural diet of secularism and an ubiquitous and perennially dysfunctional and corrupt system, who has been taken in by the images broadcast by the mainstream media, and is thus more than willing to project all his hopes onto this simple looking former IT inspector.

They are willing to believe that Kejriwal did not long for power but was forced to accept CMship due to the pressure from others and their supporters who wanted to see him in power and fighting corruption.

This coalition is taking Kejriwal at his word that despite this alliance with the corruption devil, he would continue to expose corruption in high places even if it is of the devil.

B. Cautious AAP Supporters: Many Delhi citizens supported Aam Aadmi Party believing that it was the political heir to the Indians Against Corruption Movement led by Anna Hazare.

They too share the concerns of the most of the faithfools, but their support is not to the individual Arvind Kejriwal but more to the movement in general.

This group is shocked to see Arvind Kejriwal and Aam Aadmi Party agreeing to forming a government in Delhi together. If not shocked, at least this group is quite worried whether he may have made a mistake in trusting the party and its leadership. The support this group provided was qualified support and the question is whether the group was betrayed.

C. AAP is Congress’s B Team: Most of the BJP leadership as well as the BJP voters feel this way. They can see how the Indian mainstream media doted on Arvind Kejriwal. For them Arvind Kejriwal is a crook not to be trusted. He is part of Congress’s strategy to wean away urban youth away from Modi’s magnetism, and thus to stop Modi’s march to power.

According to this view, Congress and its support system in the media helped to project Arvind Kejriwal as the anti-corruption messiah. Arvind Kejriwal and indeed Aam Aadmi Party was built up to cut into BJP votes, and to channelize all the anti-corruption and thus anti-Congress votes to AAP, rather than allow these to fall into BJP’s basket.

During the elections, BJP was focused on taking down Congress, and almost completely ignored Aam Aadmi Party not expecting them to put up such an impressive showing.

This marriage of AAP and Congress only confirms their strong suspicions that AAP is Congress’s B Team, and helped Congress to steal an election which should have brought BJP to power. According to this view, Kejriwal fooled the people and basically did a Chiranjeevi on Delhi citizens.

Many were however expecting that Kejriwal would not take the bait and refuse to join Congress, as that would destroy his credibility, especially as he wishes to fight Lok Sabha elections too, and may have dreamed of winning the re-election, especially in the aftermath of such a very good electoral performance. In the re-election more of Congress vote-banks may have gone over to AAP thus enabling AAP to get a majority. BJP supporters were feeling that Arvind Kejriwal may feel over-confident, also thinking on similar lines and opt for new elections.

However now that the marriage has been solemnized, BJP supporters feel that Kejriwal has bowed to the wishes of his MLAs to taste power. BJP feels that he has taken the bait and gone into the trap set by them. Now it makes Kejriwal vulnerable to the charge of duplicity.

BJP had opted to not stake their claim on government formation and acted honorably. BJP feels that they are on a strong wicket and sooner than later either Arvind Kejriwal would make a fool of himself in power or the Congress would withdraw support to AAP sooner or later, especially if Arvind Kejriwal tries to live up to his stated agenda of anti-corruption. If he doesn’t follow up on his promises, then Kejriwal becomes a dead duck, and stops being a serious ideological challenger to BJP.

The interests of Congress seem apparent to these BJP supporters. Congress wants to avoid a re-election right away, as well as stop BJP from coming to power and thus is willing to extend support to AAP.

To some extent the fact that AAP received more votes and seats than Congress, and in fact AAP hurt Congress more than they hurt BJP, does cause some cognitive dissonance as to why would Congress allow itself to be decimated by AAP. It weakens the theory that AAP is Congress’s B Team. This weakness makes it difficult for those holding this view to convince others of AAP’s duplicity. With this marriage BJP feels that it would be easier to make this case.

I believe this view is restricted and does not think everything through.

D. Kejriwal can have his cake and eat it too: This is the view I hold.

The main danger to the Dynasty comes from Narendra Modi. Stopping Narendra Modi is all his detractors think of. Kejriwal and his image as a corruption fighter is in fact the only ace the dynasty has up its sleeve to stop Modi. Mainstream media does not tire from projecting Arvind Kejriwal as if he was himself a PM candidate running against Narendra Modi.

If Arvind Kejriwal can entice the urban youth away from Modi, there is a chance that Modi would then not get a good majority and thus would have to either have to make way for a more amenable BJP leader or accept the poisoned chalice of support of “secular party” agents thus hindering him in translating his agenda.

So Arvind Kejriwal has to be bolstered at all costs.

So the question was how best to bolster Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party? The Congress could have chosen to not extend outside support to AAP.

This would have kept Arvind Kejriwal squeaky clean, but it would also shown to the voter that a vote for AAP is a wasted vote, as the citizens do not get a government in the end. So all those looking for stability would have chosen to vote BJP next time.

In fact people would have cast aspersions on Arvind Kejriwal that he is afraid of embracing responsibility and AAP is nothing more than a protest party unsuited for doing the hard work of governing.

Thirdly if Arvind Kejriwal had opted not to form a government, his own MLAs would have left him and joined up with BJP. This would have given a jolt to the idealist charm of AAP.

If Arvind Kejriwal has to stand up to Narendra Modi someday, he has to be able to show some executive experience.

The most important consideration was however that a hung assembly would have led to President’s rule and re-elections which would probably have coincided with the general elections. That would have put Congress and AAP at a serious disadvantage. For one thing AAP would have been chained to Delhi elections, as they would have had to pledge all their meager resources to Delhi, and Kejriwal would have been thus unavailable for campaigning across the country in Lok Sabha elections supporting AAP candidates. Also with assembly elections coinciding with Lok Sabha elections, Modimania would have been at its highest and BJP would have swept away both AAP and Congress from the field, even in Delhi.
So due to all these considerations it was felt by both Congress and AAP that Arvind Kejriwal’s loss of political virginity and idealistic appeal to Congress can be otherwise offset and in fact be bolstered even more.

Most detractors of Arvind Kejriwal, especially those in BJP, take it for granted that Arvind Kejriwal would not go after Congress corruption once in office, as otherwise Congress would withdraw support. Actually they revel in this certainty.

There is no such certainty. By taking over power in Delhi, Kejriwal has eaten his cake, his reputation.

But the understanding with Congress is that he is still going to have his reputation in the end, in fact it would be multiplied even more.

What we assume is that Sonia’s and Congress’s interests are identical. They are not. In order to let Arvind Kejriwal win, Sonia started shifting her vote-banks through the local Congress controllers towards AAP, even as it decimated Congress MLA candidates. Sonia Gandhi got the mainstream media to do carpet bombing of Delhi citizens with news and interviews of Arvind Kejriwal and his movement and tried to project the animosity between AAP and Congress as real.

So the AAP-Congress plan is to have Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal discover some big corruption scandal against some prominent Congress leader, possibly against Sheila Dixit herself. Even a scam pointing culpability directly at the dynasty itself is not unthinkable. Such a scam and the following attack by CM Arvind Kejriwal would give him even more credibility. The thing is all these scams are going to be discovered anyway if Modi comes to power, so better let one’s own man uncover one or two of them and use these to bolster his image.

So to keep the pretense of genuine opposition by Arvind Kejriwal to Congress corruption, most probably Congress would pull the rug sometime in March or early April, a few weeks before the Lok Sabha elections. This would allow Arvind Kejriwal to hog the limelight with his attack on Congress corruption or even Dynasty-based corruption. Impressed by his selfless pursuit of anti-corruption struggle where Arvind Kejriwal even endangers his CMship, many voters in cities around the country would vote for AAP candidates. Instead of NaMo being at the spearhead of anti-corruption drive against Congress and Dynasty, Arvind Kejriwal would be able to don this mantle, or at least the mainstream media would try their level best to put it on his head. Arvind Kejriwal would be projected as somewhat who sacrificed his position as CM for his principles.

This approach would then confirm the faith of the faithfools of Hazrat Kejriwal. It would also allay the fears of those who thought Arvind Kejriwal was compromised by Congress. And in fact this theater may even attract more votes who did not believe in Arvind Kejriwal or AAP earlier, as they would see themselves proven wrong about him. In this case it would be difficult to not see the rakshasa as a devta.

So what happens then? Does Arvind Kejriwal have to pay anything? Of course not! Congress would withdraw support and Lt. Governor of Delhi would declare President’s Rule in Delhi. The fun part of it would be that if done in March, it would be too late to hold elections for Delhi assembly together with Lok Sabha elections. So Kejriwal would be free, even from CMship, to campaign across the country on his “anti-corruption” agenda. Also there would be no danger of AAP MLAs rebelling against Kejriwal as he would again be upheld as a new prophet of anti-corruption, unlike now where Kejriwal is being seen with suspicion holding hands with Congress.

Once the Lok Sabha elections are over, and before the Lt. Governor is changed by the next government at the Center, the Congress legislators would again pledge their support to AAP. If that looks too suspicious, in the aftermath of the Congress rout in 2014, the Delhi Congress could simply rename itself and superficially cut its ties to parent Congress, and thus give Arvind Kejriwal their support, under a new name!

So before the new government takes over at the Center, Delhi would again have a stable Arvind Kejriwal led government, perhaps this time including the “erstwhile” Delhi Congress MLAs formally into the government.

So Kejriwal gets to stay as Delhi CM for a full 5 year term, i.e. unless he is made PM by some third front, AND at the same time Kejriwal receives both a boost from exposing some scam just before elections and can keep his image as anti-corruption crusader intact.

Arvind Kejriwal can have his cake and eat it too!

BJP’s only chance is to break away MLAs of Congress or of AAP right now. Make them resign on principle and force a reelection. Congress MLAs can resign by exposing Sonia’s hand in the defeat of many Congress MLAs through her support to AAP. AAP MLAs can resign citing Arvind Kejriwal’s duplicitous move to form a government with the support of Congress.

If the Delhi BJP does not do this now, then there is a real possibility of them sitting in opposition benches for at least the next 5 years even though they came so close to power. Much worse would be that Arvind Kejriwal would be ballooned by Sonia Gandhi to a size of NaMo just before elections through the media and thus stop the Modi juggernaut just enough to deny him a free hand at Center even if he does become the PM.

RajeshA ji, an extremely thoughtful post. And not out of realm of possibility either. I shudder at the thought of this happening. It will be a sad day to see so many of people, who otherwise are well-wishers of India, to be fooled by AAP and Sonia and go into euphoria when Kejriwal wins completely.
I hope destiny has something else planned for my nation.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 24 Dec 2013 10:30

Santosh wrote:Guru log, what is the impact of Con declaring support to Jat reservation in UP?

The same as there was, to Gehlot distributing freebies in the last year of his Govt. A tight slap !!

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 24 Dec 2013 10:41

Virendra wrote:
Santosh wrote:Guru log, what is the impact of Con declaring support to Jat reservation in UP?
The same as there was, to Gehlot distributing freebies in the last year of his Govt. A tight slap !!

It can have effect only in 2 states that would be western UP and Haryana. Western UP is lost cause b'cos of Muzuffarnagar riots. In Haryana it will strengthen Hooda who is expected to win 2 seats for sure from Rohtak and Sonipat. In other areas Hooda dont have much influence and there is lot of factionalism in Congress. BJP leaders in Haryana were opposing it.. Kuldeep Bishnoi was also opposing it.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 24 Dec 2013 11:16

Re. RajeshA

To some extent the fact that AAP received more votes and seats than Congress, and in fact AAP hurt Congress more than they hurt BJP, does cause some cognitive dissonance as to why would Congress allow itself to be decimated by AAP. It weakens the theory that AAP is Congress’s B Team. This weakness makes it difficult for those holding this view to convince others of AAP’s duplicity. With this marriage BJP feels that it would be easier to make this case.

Saar lets see what the facts are:

>Congress is roundly rejected.

>BJP got half the mandate and AAP got the other half.

>BJP and AAP have same overt agendas.

>BJP has also a covert agenda but by its deeds has show that the covert is not there to damage the overt agenda they profess by.

>AAP OTOH has a lot of deeds that subvert its own overt agenda.

Now at this point one can decide if AAP has a covert agenda at all and if not then I guess this is the second coming of christ we have all been waiting for. Halleluja.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 24 Dec 2013 12:08

debadutta wrote:Ya sure. Neither NM nor any Sr. leader of BJP bothered to visit the state post phailin. No words / no nothing , where as BJD govt did all the work on the ground and proved themselves. Now people should just forget everything and jump into the BJP bandwagon !

Good point. Any central BJP leader visiting Odisha post phailin would have triggered outrage at interference in relief activity. NM alone showed presence of mind in helping out with what he could after the UKD calamity.

Anyway, good if BJD can keep out Cong from there. Later, I don;t see any fundamental incompatibility between BJD joining NDA later. Or so I hope...

member_27426 · Post by **member_27426** » 24 Dec 2013 12:20

[quote="RajeshA"]Four Faces of Arvind Kejriwal

My blog post

Thank you Rajesh ji for an excellent post, I however, have few points to make especially about your hypothesis D, where AK can have his cake and eat it too!

1) Your argument is based on an assumption that SG's interests are different from congs'. More pertinent question then is how much? can it go all the way to decimate cong reputation beyond repair. She still has to think about RG's future and party may not let her to go that far, on an all out suicide mission from where there is no coming back. Thus, she can inflate AK's image at the cost of cong but it cann't be beyond a point.

2) We regularly anticipate NM's difficulties in converting support into votes esp in eastern and southern India, even if he has managed to capture people's imagination (which is actually a genuine concern), going by the same logic, I don't think its possible for AK to make a huge impact (even in the urban areas) from virtually 0 vote base to a point where he can hinder NM's march. Think about BJP strong holds (delhi was not in assembly elections) like Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan, Bihar etc where lot of organizational power is required. AK needs an army to make a formidable impact in 3 months or so (besides he has to please delhi janata as a CM as well).

3) 2014 is not a state election where local issues can capture public imagination - its going to be more about economy, mehengai, foreign policy and even hindutva more many. In this scenario, its extremely difficult for AK to repeat similar performance (or even play a spoiler's role) nationwide.

4) The most imp aspect is AK would be ask to express his views about Maoists, Kashmir, pak policy, bangladesh policy etc where he may find him self in a very tight spot and NM (or NM's army) may latch on to the tongue tightness of AK over these issues pretty badly!

5) Finally IMO, BJP should not try and break away MLA's from any party and rather stick to a high moral ground which can be beneficial to Harshwardhan in a longer run. This will help in consolidating BJP's vote bank with the help of good work on the ground. Excessive media scrutiny may highlight BJP's horse trading, which can be harmful for BJP in 2014.

alexis · Post by **alexis** » 24 Dec 2013 12:26

Dear svenkat, some muslims and christians do support BJP. No need for generalisation. There is no "inherent hatred" for hinduism. Many christians and muslims hate each other than they hate hindus. Once BJP is able to govern properly without favouritsm as in gujarat, i expect BJP to attract more support from minorities.

Kerala Syrian Christians are more Indic valued than others due to the fact that they have been in India for the last 2000 years compared to 400 years for other christians. I dont recollect any hindu-christian riots in Kerala.

alexis · Post by **alexis** » 24 Dec 2013 12:29

I somehow do not subscribe to majority view that AAP is B team of congress. It seems to be an opportune movement created by Kejriwal which will die within next 4-5 years once the "volunteers" realise that real world problems cant be solved by idealism only.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 24 Dec 2013 13:00

alexis wrote:I somehow do not subscribe to majority view that AAP is B team of congress. It seems to be an opportune movement created by Kejriwal which will die within next 4-5 years once the "volunteers" realise that real world problems cant be solved by idealism only.

I agree. In a sick polity, such "opportunistic infections" are dime a dozen. Shri Modi and the party are the only hope.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 24 Dec 2013 13:31

alexis wrote:I somehow do not subscribe to majority view that AAP is B team of congress. It seems to be an opportune movement created by Kejriwal which will die within next 4-5 years once the "volunteers" realise that real world problems cant be solved by idealism only.

B Teams do not have to be nurtured, they can also be co-opted. AK may be a creation of certain forces but the Congress was quick enough to latch on.

M Joshi · Post by **M Joshi** » 24 Dec 2013 15:18

Country Stand Still when NaMo Speaks!! Picture taken at Kolkata airport when NaMo was speaking at Varanasi.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 24 Dec 2013 15:50

alexis wrote:I somehow do not subscribe to majority view that AAP is B team of congress. It seems to be an opportune movement created by Kejriwal which will die within next 4-5 years once the "volunteers" realise that real world problems cant be solved by idealism only.

Which is exactly why I am happy that AAP is setting up Govt. in Delhi. Reasons are three:
a) We should not handwave someone without giving him a chance.
Kejriwal here's yours .. enough of slogans and ideologic blabber. Now, pick the shovel.
b) If shit hits the fan. They will stand exposed .. for good.
c) If things go better in Delhi and AAP really performs. Well that is what we wanted .. governance and performance.

Whichever way I see it .. seems fine to me.

Regards,
Virendra