Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

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Singha
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Singha »

allegedly these small shop owners are a core BJP voting block (or so it was said). so kill two birds with one stone.
Yagnasri
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Yagnasri »

It is rubbish sir. Just like many other rubbish paid media dishes out day after day.
merlin
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by merlin »

Arjun wrote:
merlin wrote:UPA and more specifically the Congress will still win handsomely in the urban areas in 2014. People forget the elections in Maharashtra after 26/11 far too easily.
Nope....UPA was foolishly regarded by urban India as the party of governance and development in 2009. That mantle is completely lost in 2013.
We shall see. I remain unconvinced.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

Let us use this thread to discuss some real strategy. Though we all like to see UPA out of the door, the ground reality of electoral math is not in favor of such a thing yet. As things stand and if there is an election next month UPA-3 is a sure shot thing.

Here is an important pointer that ShauryaT posted in the closed assembly election thread on 21st December.

many in this thread are still missing a ground to earth reality that exists in Gujrat. It is the rural-urban divide
The BJP may not be able to repeat its handsome win in the civic polls in the October 21 district panchayat, taluka and nagarpalika polls, if statistics of past elections are to go by.

Voters who showed a pro-BJP trend in the civic and Assembly elections have shown a tilt towards the Congress in the rural and Lok Sabha elections.

Besides, the gap in the vote share between the two parties in the rural polls is narrower compared to the urban polls. In Ahmedabad city, the gap was 12.48 per cent, which narrowed down to 1.94 per cent in the district panchayat polls last time. In Vadodara city, the gap was 21.09 per cent, but the Congress pipped the BJP in the district panchayat elections by getting its share up by 2.48 per cent.

The scene was no different in Surat and Rajkot. The municipal corporation polls showed a 23.84 per cent vote share in favour of the BJP in Surat and 22.11 per cent share in its favour in Rajkot, which narrowed down to 3.45 per cent in the district polls.

In Jamnagar, the civic poll share gap was 17.82 per cent in favour of the BJP and 3.28 per cent in panchayat body. In Bhavnagar though, the vote share in favour of the BJP was 4.16 per cent in the municipal corporation and 5.37 per cent in the district panchayat.

In the Assembly election of 2007, the vote share was 11.12 per cent in favour of the BJP which dipped down to 3.16 per cent in the Lok Sabha election of 2009.

The overall vote share gap in 2005 in the district panchayats was 4.75 per cent and in case of municipalities 4.78 per cent. But in the case of the taluka panchayats in 2006, the Congress had an upper hand with 15.11 per cent vote share.
Just before the actual election results came B.Raman and some those who has internal IB connection in India tweeted that congress gameplan of making Modi to CBN level. We should not brush aside such statements as some fantacy just because we don't like.

Congress has an APization plan for some states
The game plan of INC is whereever there is a straight fight and a pushy urban middleclass (the media wrongly puts is neo-urbanclass like neo-rich of Russia), you have to create fissures and divide it so that the votes of this class is irrelevant. That is the fundamental game here.

(1) They achieved it in AP using the Telangana bandwagon. TDP is almost irrelevant. It is easy to call it as some basket case today but just rewind back to 2000-2004 timeline. CBN being the CEO, all IT-Vty stuff and the world praising the state as a most forward looking etc. Not that AP does not have backwardness. Who is the reason for such a forward looking image? The so called neo-middleclass. The backbone of such an image was broken and the electorate is now splintered.

(2) Congress just tried APization on Gujarat. Do not take away the success of Keshubhai and his achievement in this election. It was Modi's electoral strategy that got seats but he did not win in places where he was expected to win. But congress will do a very micro level analysis in planning new strategies for LS2014. GJP will be the new RajT/Chiranjeevi of Gujarat and I am sure Modi will not take it lightly inspite of victory.

(3) Now the APization of Karnataka seems to be complete - The corruption is Karnataka is like a bird's drop in a ocean when compared to anything that happened in YSR's AP or central government. However, the extra brutal push on Yeddi and recently on Eshwarrappa tells that the push is as simple as the operation APization. You need several parties fighting for each other for the same space so that INC can win. Here is the survey (little biased towards congress as they gave alway 15 to 20 seats in all their surveys more to INC). http://www.daijiworld.com/news/news_dis ... _id=158171
Congress will be back to power in the state with a clear majority of 115 seats in the coming assembly elections, a survey conducted by C fore (Centre for Forecasting & Research) has revealed.

As per the survey, the ruling BJP will take second place with 58 seats, JD(S) will improve its tally from last elections to 31 seats and Yeddyurappa's KJP will be pushed to a corner with only 14 seats.

The survey conducted by C fore has considered 158 towns and 658 rural places with opinions from 10,279 voters around the state. The survey includes men and women from all castes, religions and age groups.

More number of youth and women have favoured Congress in the survey. Congress is expected to bag 36% of the total votes. Out 224 sitting MLAs, only 85 MLAs are expected to be re-elected this time, while the rest would be rejected by the people.

BJP will be a major loser losing about 60 sitting MLAs.

While 54% of the Lingayat community voters favoured B S Yeddyurappa, only 25% were in favour of BJP. Minorities Muslim and Christians are expected to back Congress strongly this time, along with backward castes. But Vokkaliga voters have shown support to JD(S).
In all the three cases above, it is just a line of political divisions that will keep a state looking like economically forward with development politics Vs completely casteistic backward. Gujarat was able to beat the plot where AP failed and KA is in the process.

Modi needs to do a VPSingh+ABV of 1989 to unite the voters and beat the divisions that are being plotted and executed.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

For Modi to be relevant and to really defeat UPA he needs to achieve the following and then we can talk about UPA-3 not forming.
(1) He should plan a way so that INC loses AP. Does not matter if uber-super seculars like TRS and TDP wins. To help that his party BJP should not even put candidates in Telangana even though BJP hates TRS.

(2) In karnataka he should try a coalition with Yeddi. Yeddi is being blackmailed to go alone and make sure BJP vote is split. How he achieves this is the test to his abilities.

(3) He should bring Raj, Uddav and RPI together with BJP as a coalition. INC+NCP has to lose this state.

All others things that he can do about being a messiah of urban India are useless. Twitter, facebook and social media can be orgasmic but unless he achieves above three there is no chance in the world. It is just UPA-3 is a gaurantee.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Hari Seldon »

No tie-up with BJP, Congress for 2014: Jayalalithaa (TOI)
CHENNAI: Tamil Nadu CM Jayalalithaa on Monday ruled out an alliance with either the Congress or the BJP for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, saying that both parties worked against the state on the Cauvery issue.
Uh-oh.
ramana
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

She doesn't want the seculars to sabotage her before she gets her tally.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RamaY »

I like your points Muppala garu. It is different from the other strategies where NM has to get endorsement from the likes of MullahM, which is nonsense. It is like the dhimmi media trying to get an apology from NM claiming that it would somehow magically (1) make him secular (2) gets Mvote and (3) he will get acceptance from dhimmis; all of which have nothing to do with the apology.

can we do a state wide analysis and strategy like what is INC strength and strategy for non-UPA faction and possible impediments?

For example Andhra Pradesh:

1. CBN cannot ally with BJP overtly before elections.
2. TRS can support BJP, provided t-state is not announced before elections.
3. YSRCP goes with INC
4. INC can win few seats on its own in the absence of a tsunami.
5. BJP may not win any seats at all on its own irrespective of t-issue

So it is better if BJP puts all its strength behind TRS and CBN covertly and make sure that YSRCP/INC do not win large number of MP seats.

Issues -
1. The closeness between INC and TRS
2. Backstabbing of TDP leaders to support YSRCP candidates (where family members of TDP are in YSRCP camp)
....
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Muppalla wrote:For Modi to be relevant and to really defeat UPA he needs to achieve the following and then we can talk about UPA-3 not forming.
(1) He should plan a way so that INC loses AP. Does not matter if uber-super seculars like TRS and TDP wins. To help that his party BJP should not even put candidates in Telangana even though BJP hates TRS.

(2) In karnataka he should try a coalition with Yeddi. Yeddi is being blackmailed to go alone and make sure BJP vote is split. How he achieves this is the test to his abilities.

(3) He should bring Raj, Uddav and RPI together with BJP as a coalition. INC+NCP has to lose this state.

All others things that he can do about being a messiah of urban India are useless. Twitter, facebook and social media can be orgasmic but unless he achieves above three there is no chance in the world. It is just UPA-3 is a gaurantee.
Above all, Modi/BJP needs 50 seats minimum in UP + Bihar. I think point 3 is covered. Point 2 will take shape only after modi is declared candidate. Lets all wait till it takes shape.

Here is the latest http://www.amarujala.com/news/samachar/ ... candidate/
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Yagnasri »

money transfer is a big mistake since Nehru became pm and started his stupidity. Now we are having no control for freebie cultures every where money, rice, power, loan waivers, and so on by every party. In case of inc they simply want to bribe the nation in 2013
Aditya_V
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Aditya_V »

Narayana Rao wrote:money transfer is a big mistake since Nehru became pm and started his stupidity. Now we are having no control for freebie cultures every where money, rice, power, loan waivers, and so on by every party. In case of inc they simply want to bribe the nation in 2013
I would say it was a masterstroke, see the Aim of Elite leadership, JNU types is not a shared vision for India like you and me. Outsiders use them as useful idiots and are very valuable to them. A strong Prosperous poverty reduced India is not in thier DNA.

For them India is a cow, milk it for its worth, if it becomes old cut and and eat some beef and sell some beef and make money.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by darshhan »

Narayana Rao wrote:money transfer is a big mistake since Nehru became pm and started his stupidity. Now we are having no control for freebie cultures every where money, rice, power, loan waivers, and so on by every party. In case of inc they simply want to bribe the nation in 2013
Narayana Rao ji, I am posting the following link to reinforce your point

How to Bring Down a Nation
If you were intent on bringing down a powerful rival whose philosophy, as originally founded, was strong, independent and entirely opposite from your own—a country that you would not want to confront militarily—how would you go about it? The answer is simple; orchestrate the society’s destruction from within.



Although possibly taking longer than a military victory and requiring great patience, the damage would be just as effective if not more so. When you destroy from within, you do it by using that country’s own people, no blood is spilled in combat and the physical infrastructure is left intact.



In any country, there are but a few key areas that determine how the citizens mature, live, and develop their beliefs. These are the focal points that must be attacked. In his book, On War, Clausewitz referred to this concept of identifying and then focusing on select points as attacking the center of gravity.



The center of gravity is that key element, if controlled or destroyed, would most hurt your opponent and is the critical factor in achieving your objective. In this case, when taking control of or destroying a country from within, the key is to attack and control the mind of the inhabitants—you must shape the way people view life and the values upon which their life is based. Shape the mind and you control their direction. Control their direction and you can lead them down a pathway to hell.



The centers of gravity I would shape in orchestrating a country’s downfall from within are its perception of truth, its future generations, the political philosophy, its sense of nationalism and of course, the economy.



To shape truth, control the media: Most people absorb what they know about life from the major media centers these days. The media paints the picture for all to see. If that picture is constantly distorted, lies become accepted as truth, i.e. tell enough lies repeatedly and soon those lies are accepted as fact. Spin and concoct, distort and influence using the public platforms such as television, radio and print and you can influence, sway and control the mind of the vast majority of its population in any area you choose. This subversive influence includes pitting one group against another in order to foment internal discord as well as ridiculing, discrediting and challenging moral principles and national values in order to destroy any hint of a strong spiritual foundation or allegiance to a unique national culture. This is a much easier task if many in your target audience have become lazy, ill-educated, ill-informed, unthinking and apathetic.



To shape future generations, control the schools: Incrementally indoctrinate the children with principles that are sympathetic to your philosophy. Make future generations weak in mind, body and spirit. Avoid teaching children the basic facts about their own history, constitution or rights. Teach them that natural aggression is wrong and docile submission is right. Teach them that any basis of a moral foundation, like the principles of religion, is a weakness to be avoided in the name of freedom and also redefine the concept of patriotism to support your views. Teach them to cast off old values and traditions in the interest and name of sensitivity—after all, we wouldn’t want to offend anyone with our old fashioned or traditional beliefs now would we? And guns, guns are wicked, dangerous, and socially unacceptable—an evil that must be eradicated from society—for the good of the children of course.



To shape the political philosophy, infiltrate the government: Whenever and wherever possible place those sympathetic to your philosophy into office at all levels—the higher, the better—so they can sway the direction of the country within every function of government, promising solutions, handouts and benefits for all. In such a way you can tilt legislation toward incrementally increasing the control of and dependency on government—a government that you are shaping. Concurrently, if you can pack the courts with appointed judges who will not hold you accountable to the law and its constitution, you can act with virtual impunity. Infiltration at the highest levels can also be employed to weaken the military through budget cuts, unwarranted restrictions and over commitment, degrading both force morale and effectiveness. A country without a strong military is like a bull without horns or a tiger without claws—defenseless and vulnerable.



To shape the sense of nationalism, dilute the culture and the language: A strong society has at its foundation a unique culture and a common language. Simply put, it is the culture and language which ultimately defines and unites a nation. If you can manipulate these two critical elements through legislative action and social pressure, you can weaken the foundation of any country. How? Introduce and eventually force the acceptance of a multi-cultural concept and refuse to accept a common tongue as the official language. In short, prevent cultural assimilation and undermine any sense of nationalism. Encourage and orchestrate a mosaic society rather than a melting pot and you will eventually mortally wound the national fabric.



To shape the economy, spend, spend, spend and tax, tax, tax: A country with a strong economy is financially independent and its people unlikely to look toward the government for much of anything. If free people don’t depend on their government, that government has limited sway over them. By legislating large sums from the public treasury you accomplish two important goals. First you create dependents of the public and private business that are now subject to conditions, rules and regulations you dictate. Secondly, you are putting that country into unsustainable debt, reducing the value of the currency while undermining its economy. And of course, to support all this spending, you now make the case that the people must “invest” in all these government provided “benefits” so you tax them relentlessly stealing money from their pockets and independence from their lives. Eventually, if you tax and spend enough, you financially oppress the people to the point of serfdom and overload their economic structure to the point of collapse.



Through patient manipulation and clever coordination of these few centers of gravity, you can, in time, weave the downfall of even the most powerful nation, using its own citizens and systems to orchestrate the destruction.



The irony is that in just a few generations, the indoctrinated masses will be convinced this trail which has been shaped for them is truly the enlightened path for mankind and they will unwittingly look forward to the trip! You have thus taken control of a powerful rival without firing a shot or spilling a drop of blood.
This is exactly what Congressis are doing for the last 65 years
Yagnasri
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Yagnasri »

And what British did before that .
Muppalla
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

RamaY wrote: can we do a state wide analysis and strategy like what is INC strength and strategy for non-UPA faction and possible impediments?
We should be able to do in due course. Something are still fluid.
So it is better if BJP puts all its strength behind TRS and CBN covertly and make sure that YSRCP/INC do not win large number of MP seats.
It is better if they do nothing at all for this round. They should just fight with MIM and that is their only strength at this time in the state.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Yagnasri »

AP with 33 MPs for INC today(out of total of 42) holds the key to 2014. TN is directly anti INC and they have to manage Karnataka somehow. INC is not that strong in Karnataka but it can encash the division in core BJP vote banks (yaddi votes) and anti incumbency votes and may gain Karnataka. BJP should mend with Yaddi and get him directly or indirectly in board otherwise they will lose. Kerala will be Anti BJP( left or INC) so no use in hoping for it.

One improtant news - Supreme Court has today ruled appointment of Lokayuktha in Gujarat by Governer directly without Modi consent as constitutional. With this the lokayuktha and Governer will start one more front against Modi. This time it will be curruption allegations. His image for lack of corruption will be attacked time and again in the media from now onwards.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by prahaar »

IMHO, BJP should try to make the party strong in KA, even if that means losing out in the short term. BSY may have crossed to the dark side (see Vaghela, for instance). It may be a nice day for Bharat if KA can also move to "centre-of-right" position eventually, there are all the ingredients, only a sustained momentum is needed.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ShyamSP »

prahaar wrote:IMHO, BJP should try to make the party strong in KA, even if that means losing out in the short term. BSY may have crossed to the dark side (see Vaghela, for instance). It may be a nice day for Bharat if KA can also move to "centre-of-right" position eventually, there are all the ingredients, only a sustained momentum is needed.
BJP needs BSY more than BSY needs BJP. INC and JD can mathematically defeat BJP now unless they make remedies before election. If BJP loses KA, they will be flushed out of KA. KA has been right-of-center and is the reason BJP can establish power so far and INC made the right off-balance will apply caste-polarizations to its advantage.

As Muppalla alluded tested AP-formula can be applied on any state. This slice-dice-and-merge formula can boxed-in real opposition to certain voting %.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vijayk »

http://www.firstpost.com/business/how-u ... 76163.html

How UPA’s populism may have entrenched jobless growth
Writing in Business Standard, Abheek Barua tells us that during 1993-2009, employment growth in the Indian economy was just 1.7 percent, down from 2.4 percent in 1972-83, and 2 percent in 1983-1993.

This would have been worse but for the NDA period’s 2.8 percent growth. What caused this jump? Barua is happy to leave this as an unexplained spurt. He says the “post-liberalisation average was shored up by a somewhat spectacular and unexplainable blip in employment growth to 2.8 percent between 1999-2000 and 2004-05.”

But Barua’s very next line tells us that this phenomenon needs close examination, for, as he points out, “in the 2004-05 to 2009-10 period, in which GDP growth hit historically its highest levels, job growth collapsed to virtually zero.”

The big question is: why did the NDA time bring jobs growth at a time when GDP was growing slowly (5-6 percent), and why did higher growth in the next five-year period bring almost no jobs growth?
In the next UPA-1 period, global growth winds were extremely positive (the George Bush tax cuts, the liquidity binge) and India directly benefited from it as GDP grew to 8-9 percent consistently. It seemed we have arrived.

And yet, jobs did not grow.

It is not possible to imagine any exogenous variable affecting jobs growth back home. Clearly, if jobs were not growing when GDP was, the faults have to be sought within.

The one major change during the UPA regime was the huge transfer of resources to rural welfare schemes, especially NREGA and farm loan waivers.

Did these impact jobs growth?

The one thing NREGA did for sure is create a wage-price spiral. It pushed more farmers to opt for farm mechanisation. Higher wages and loan waivers may also have allowed farm labour to seek more leisure time rather than work in the short run. Since rising rural wages also upped urban wages, it may have had the effect of increasing the capital-intensity of Indian industry, though we don’t know this for sure.

The only conclusion we can draw from the stats is this: GDP growth matters, but the quality of GDP growth may be more important than its quantity. A corollary could be: welfare is fine, but if welfare leads to a reduction in jobs, what is the net benefit to the country?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by rohiths »

People outside Karnataka seem to over estimate the hold that Yeddy has over the Lingayat community. Everyone clearly knows that Yeddy can never get enough seats to form a govt of his own. The best that Yeddy can hope is to be a Kingmaker which is possible only if the Cong+ JD(S) combine is less than majority and near the BJP tally. Given this why would the lingayat community waste votes on Yeddy.

Concerning the Congress, it does not have any strong Lingayat leaders in contention for the CM post since SM Krishna is a Gowda and Mallikarjun Kharge is from Backward Caste. The JD(S) is clearly Vokkaliga dominated.Only the BJP who will have Jagadish Shettar as the CM candidate will have a Lingayat who has a chance at being CM. I would be surprised if Yeddy is able to capture even 5% of the vote share.
IMHO,the only reason why the BJP govt would be voted out is poor governance. The damage to BJP would not be as much as some of the posters expect it to be
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

rohiths, I hope you are right and seems to be right. Yeddi getting 5% of Lingayat vote is also brutal for BJP. He may get less number of seats.
See the survey posted above from the following link:
http://www.daijiworld.com/news/news_dis ... _id=158171

It seems like Yeddi is forced to be anti-BJP and divide the BJP votes. If he doesn't do what he is doing he may have the same fate as Reddy brothers and Jagan (permanently in jail with no bail). Central congress is brutally misusing CBI and Lokayuktas. It is hillarious to see some in jail permanently while A.Raja, Kanimozi and CWG folks are all out on bail. The HP CM's cases are struck out to enable him to become HP CM. The whole anti-corruption stuff by CBI is very partial between those with UPA Vs those against.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ShyamSP »

rohiths wrote:People outside Karnataka seem to over estimate the hold that Yeddy has over the Lingayat community. Everyone clearly knows that Yeddy can never get enough seats to form a govt of his own. The best that Yeddy can hope is to be a Kingmaker which is possible only if the Cong+ JD(S) combine is less than majority and near the BJP tally. Given this why would the lingayat community waste votes on Yeddy.

Concerning the Congress, it does not have any strong Lingayat leaders in contention for the CM post since SM Krishna is a Gowda and Mallikarjun Kharge is from Backward Caste. The JD(S) is clearly Vokkaliga dominated.Only the BJP who will have Jagadish Shettar as the CM candidate will have a Lingayat who has a chance at being CM. I would be surprised if Yeddy is able to capture even 5% of the vote share.
IMHO,the only reason why the BJP govt would be voted out is poor governance. The damage to BJP would not be as much as some of the posters expect it to be
A mere 3% is enough for Congress to capture majority and INC will sweep if it goes with JD even if you ignore positive gains for INC and JD due to anti-incumbancy. Even 1% for Yeddy is crucial for BJP. If BJP doesn't do reasonably in KA, forget about ruling in center.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Hari Seldon »

India today political report on coming state polls in 2013

Nothing terribly new but a good summary/overview kind of read with particular focus on INC dilemmas here and there. Only.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RamaY »

Politics Party guys predictions for 2013 elections...

http://politicsparty.com/shownews.php?newsid=115
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vera_k »

I think the angst over the Delhi rape puts paid to Rahul Gandhi's ambitions to be Prime Minister. Remember, RG himself was accused of gang raping a girl, and the case went all the way to the Supreme Court. That is enough to create doubt in the minds of significant numbers of voters, even if the court cleared him.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by rohiths »

ShyamSP wrote:
rohiths wrote:People outside Karnataka seem to over estimate the hold that Yeddy has over the Lingayat community. Everyone clearly knows that Yeddy can never get enough seats to form a govt of his own. The best that Yeddy can hope is to be a Kingmaker which is possible only if the Cong+ JD(S) combine is less than majority and near the BJP tally. Given this why would the lingayat community waste votes on Yeddy.

Concerning the Congress, it does not have any strong Lingayat leaders in contention for the CM post since SM Krishna is a Gowda and Mallikarjun Kharge is from Backward Caste. The JD(S) is clearly Vokkaliga dominated.Only the BJP who will have Jagadish Shettar as the CM candidate will have a Lingayat who has a chance at being CM. I would be surprised if Yeddy is able to capture even 5% of the vote share.
IMHO,the only reason why the BJP govt would be voted out is poor governance. The damage to BJP would not be as much as some of the posters expect it to be
A mere 3% is enough for Congress to capture majority and INC will sweep if it goes with JD even if you ignore positive gains for INC and JD due to anti-incumbancy. Even 1% for Yeddy is crucial for BJP. If BJP doesn't do reasonably in KA, forget about ruling in center.
Congress was the largest party by voteshare even in Karnataka Assembly elections 2008 when BJP won the state. They are certain to increase the vote share and form the govt in 2013.
However LokSabha elections is a different ball game. BJP has done well even with a lower vote share than Congress since it has focused strongholds in the state.

2009: BJP Vote Share: 41.6%, Congress Vote Share 37.6% BJP Seats: 19 Congress Seats: 6
2004: BJP Vote Share: 34.8%, Congress Vote Share 36.8% BJP Seats:18 Congress Seats: 8
1999: BJP Vote Share: 27.2%, Congress Vote Share: 45.4% BJP Seats: 7 Congress Seats: 18
1998: BJP Vote Share: 26.9%, Congress Vote Share: 36.2% BJP Seats:13 Congress Seats: 9
1996: BJP Vote Share: 24.8%, Congress Vote Share: 30.3% BJP Seats: 6 Congress Seats: 5

Even if the BJP loses 5% of the vote share it should end up with 10-13 seats based on historical trends. My only point was that Yeddy leaving is not a body blow to the BJP and they are here to stay in Karnataka.

Moreover Karnataka has the tendency to vote the party which is in opposition to the center. If that pattern holds we should hope BJP/NDA will win in the center.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by krisna »

Auto finance mafia
Auto-finance-mafia own or control more than 90% of autos plying in Delhi. The entire Transport Department acts like a puppet in the hands of these mafias. Such brazenness flows from the patronage they are given by Mr. Sandeep Dikshit, a Member of Parliament and the son of the Chief Minister of Delhi.(Sheila Dixit)

The auto-finance-mafia adversely affect the livelihood of approximately one lakh auto drivers and cause suffering to millions of passengers. The vehicle which officially costs Rs.1,3,000 has crossed the market price of Rs.6,00,000 due to the tactics adopted by the auto-finance-mafia.
Transport Department admits and is aware that the high cost of autos is due to the illegal trading in permits and benami ownerships. However, instead of taking steps to check the malaise, it continues to act in sync with the very people who are responsible for widespread illegality within its department. This is nothing but amounts to a Mafia Syndicate in which some powerful politicians, Transport Department officials, and auto-finance-mafia are the partners in crime.

Whilst direct victims of the Mafia Syndicate are the auto drivers, the millions of passengers who travel in autos every day and face poor quality service are no less sufferers.
corruption and auto mafia in Delhi. No word from the media despite being a common knowledge.
Delhi going for polls this year, wonder how aam aadmi will vote.

Of course the mutant monkey with the gun is nowhere on congis regarding corruption. This is a easy task for him what with with stars not aligning properly for sheila aunty.
may be waiting for sonia aunty to give the green signal.
Atri
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Atri »

One question..

Why do we want INC to lose and BJP to win?

Can someone help me out with a comprehensive answer to this question in one paragraph.

BTW, I was surprised to see Shiv Sena in Thiruvananthapuram.. Plenty of Shiv sena posters and ambulances parked outside Sri Padmanabha swamy temple....
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sachin »

Atri wrote:BTW, I was surprised to see Shiv Sena in Thiruvananthapuram.. Plenty of Shiv sena posters and ambulances parked outside Sri Padmanabha swamy temple....
Shiv Sena has a good unit in Thiruvananthapuram. And one way they gained good mileage was by providing free ambulance (and hearse) facility to the needy and poor, cutting across religions.

Another thing I noticed in Kerala was that temples are slowly becoming a "meeting point/social hub" for the Hindus. Religion is now gaining prominence as the old commie tactics of acting non-religious is withering out. Organisations like RSS, ABVP have started making inroads into temple related activities. And in some places the polarisation was much more noticeable. A huge mosque built by Gelf money in one village, and every surrounding village having sizeable presence of RSS. Even small temples having Shakhas and all. This area nearly 15-20 years back did not have this at all. It was commies all around.

Now read this with Def. Minister Antony's remarks; "Communal harmony takes a beating in Kerala".
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Atri »

I asked various people about RSS.. Lower classes were proudly hindus, but were afraid of being seen as associated with RSS. It seems, CPM gundagiri is still potent. This was in Kumarkom, Kottayam area (the backwater region).

Furthermore, it seemed to me that most of the tourism industry is not in hands of Hindus. The boat walas, museum walas, guides are mostly Non-Hindus. Christians, to be precise. This has to change. Small museums, spice-gardens, massage parlors etc owned by Christians seemed to be on the list of KTDC. Either Hindus do not own prime property in tourist destinations OR the property owned by Hindus are not "recommended" to the outsider who is booking the trip online. Furthermore, the attitude of Hindus towards Syrian Orthodox Christians was much more favorable than Catholics and other newer denominations.

I specifically asked for parlors, boats, hotels and other services owned by Hindus to my taxi-driver (who himself seemed to be of similar mental bent as I), this is when I observed the difference.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sachin »

Atri wrote: Lower classes were proudly hindus, but were afraid of being seen as associated with RSS. It seems, CPM gundagiri is still potent.
CPM Goonda-giri is not that predominant in the areas you mentioned. The lethal variety is mostly in Northern Kerala and some parts of middle districts. More than being afraid of being seen as associated with RSS it was ashamed of being seen as associated with RSS. The organisation was pilloried as a caste-ist, elitist, Hindu fundamendalist organisation for the last 30-40 years mainly by the commies. It is only among a younger generation that the organisation has a different image. But my feeling is that majority of Hindus in Kerala are still split mainly on CPI & CPI(M) or BJP & RSS lines. If these two groups can stop killing each other and chart a good middle-course, INC would be in deep trouble.
The boat walas, museum walas, guides are mostly Non-Hindus. Christians, to be precise.
The Christian community in Kerala have been good businessmen from time immemmorial. They did not forcibly take any thing away from Hindus (or any one else). They showed sharp business acumen, focused on what would give them a comfortable living and took up those professions. Where as Hindus have not shown such qualities. Most of them took the hereditary route of being government servants etc. etc. Christian community also focused on good education and understanding the rules of the land (they are aware of their rights etc.). Pretty much same can be said about Muslims as well. Many of them are also into business, and once upon a time focused heavily on such activities which required heavy physical work (felling timber in forests was one such job). So if these have to be changed, Hindu communities should look at around them and chart a way forward.

Sorry for the long OT post, but just wanted to added more information. Would leave it for now.. :)
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by sum »

Who after me as DMK party chief ? Stalin, says Karunanidhi
Interesting story developing here...need to see how it pans out!
Atri
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Atri »

Thanks, Sachin Ettan.. :)
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Yagnasri »

But this is not translating into votes for BJP and seats for BJP in Kerala. Unless it happens we will be doomed to see INC and CPM with assosiated jihadi outfits winning the elections time and again.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sachin »

Narayana Rao wrote:But this is not translating into votes for BJP and seats for BJP in Kerala.
My take on this is that very many Keralite Hindus do feel that voting for the commies should be enough to have a decent existence as a Hindu. For one thing religion is a very diluted item in Kerala, and it is rare to find a person who "wears religion on his sleeves". Secondly the BJP has very mediocre leaders in Kerala. There are pretty much no crowd pullers or people who can make a difference. The commies are a much more entrenched lot and they still do have leaders who have come up through the ranks.

It is only with the current UDF government coming into power that many people have started thinking. The current ministry is pretty much under the tight control of the Muslim League and Kerala Congress (which is considered to be a X'tian party). People outside these religions have taken notice of this. And Muslim League leaders making open statements like "You really know who controls the government" etc, even the most dumb person will sit up.

So to be quite honest, I still don't see BJP winning any major chunk of seats in Kerala. But they can play a second fiddle to the commies, and help commies win. The BJP also would have to take the initiative in forming any strategic alliance with the commies, and at least make sure that it is not a really "Minority Only" government which is running the show. There were reports that in some parts of Kerala, commies and BJP have reached an unwritten tacit understanding on not going for the throats of each other. How ever the commies are also facing a dicey situation that old murder cases in which commies were the accused are now getting reopened. In one case the victim was a BJP Yuva Morcha activist, so here BJP also cannot really side with the commies ;).
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by member_23658 »

RamaY wrote:Politics Party guys predictions for 2013 elections...

http://politicsparty.com/shownews.php?newsid=115
what predictions !! :
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi will encounter a Huge Health Problem in 2013 ...
Congress President Sonia will experience the Most Severe Health Crisis in 2013 ...

BJP Parliamentary Party Chairman L.K.Advani, DMK President Karunanidhi, CPI Ex-President Bardhan, Samajwadi Party President Mulayam Singh Yadav, Gujarat Parivartan Party President Keshubhai Patel, J&K National Conference President Farookh Abdullah, Punjab Akali Dal Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha President Shibhu Soren and some others will find it extremely difficult to survive 2013 ...
:shock:

and
If the Scams Filled Manmohan Singh continues to be the Prime Minister, then the INC will be Reduced to the Single Digit Tally in the 543 MPs Lok Sabha
:rotfl: bas kya!!
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RamaY »

^ check the predictions on various state elections...

Also the numbers given for various state MP numbers

The stuff related to NM, SG saving India etc in PP site are like Curry Leaves in Indian dishes. You put them for aroma and taste, but you do not eat them.
member_23658
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by member_23658 »

RamaY wrote:^ check the predictions on various state elections...

Also the numbers given for various state MP numbers

The stuff related to NM, SG saving India etc in PP site are like Curry Leaves in Indian dishes. You put them for aroma and taste, but you do not eat them.
RamaYji, apologies if my post came across as bit cocky, I just went through the front page and found these pretty funny. You are right ofcourse, the devil is in the details
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RamaY »

No apologies required sir. I am with my iPadMe and cant post the details. Can you pls copy those details here? That guy generally changes the data as it comes. It may be interesting to see how the details are changing.
ramana
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

RamaY wrote:Politics Party guys predictions for 2013 elections...

http://politicsparty.com/shownews.php?newsid=115

More like his wish list or hallucinations under bhang.
ramana
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

Sachin, Thanks for the vignette on Kerala.


rohiths, Is the INC confined to some areas in Karnataka? The reason is depite high vote share they dont get proportional seats. Most likely they poll a lot of votes in seats more than required to win.
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