Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 09 Apr 2013 13:37

They will have those relationships in future also. Money bags are frinds of everybody in politics who has some following. But they may now try to be "more frindly with BJP". INC is no position to complain. Everyone missed Chiddu speach that he is looking to clear infra projects worth 7 Lac Crores. Had they have done that in time INC would have earned lot of good will and would have created lot of jobs etc with a shot at 3rd term. But INC (NAC gang) thinks that nanny state and free bees will only win the elections and cover the loot.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Apr 2013 17:17

What is BJP's health in West Bengal? Can it win any seats? Is there any wave?

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 09 Apr 2013 18:33

IIRC South kolkata had some presence worthy of metnion

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 09 Apr 2013 18:37

Pratyush wrote:Karnataka 2013: No red carpet for Cong despite Yeddy-BJP war

The spin is on. Would be great if, this so called war is just a ploy to split the sikular vote. But it is not.

May be. But a question to Karnataka votes.

Do they believe that BSY is corrupt? If so, then why do they want to punish BJP for kicking him out instead of supporting BJP with full majority again?

If they think BSY is not corrupt, then shouldn't they teach BJP a lesson by giving BSY's KJP full majority?

In either case why would they want a scam-ridden and corrupt Congress or JD govts?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Apr 2013 18:48

The question is what kind of government would be formed if the Lingayats vote for BSY? It would be probably be a KJP-INC coalition. Is that what they want? I don't think they can be sure of a KJP-JDS coalition.

So the Lingayats may be ready to support Shettar instead, because at least this way, they can retain influence.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 09 Apr 2013 18:51

RajeshA garu,

Think Bharatiya alliance.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 09 Apr 2013 19:18

^^^ Last time I checked, BJP in Karnataka state was based around 2 personalities. A former CM Sadananda Gowda, who has good credentials and is known for a good work ethic, he is also in the BJP Parliamentary Board apparently close to Modi. The other is Shettar.

IMO Sadanand Gowda is a good face to campaign across Karnataka along with Modi in the 3 weeks leading upto the Karnataka polls, however the uncertainty is about whether the raw deal he got as CM of the state will be avoided this time around. This was the single biggest mistake of BJP within Karnataka, bigger than even the KJP split.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 09 Apr 2013 19:31

RajeshA wrote:What is BJP's health in West Bengal? Can it win any seats? Is there any wave?

Not good. If you stretch it far may be 1 or 2 seats in WB apart from Darjeeling. The non-left Hindu vote is with the TMC. The BJP does not have any meaningful organization on the ground. However, if Mamata shows potential (she is yet to) and if the left starts disintegrating like in former Communist countries may be TMC will turn out to be BJP-lite. However, at this stage it is just wishful thinking.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Apr 2013 19:45

Supratik wrote:The non-left Hindu vote is with the TMC. ...... if the left starts disintegrating like in former Communist countries may be

With 27% population of Muslims in WB especially as they have been rampaging here and there, why is polarization not taking place. And when it does, where do the Hindus go to and why?

Is there any party at all, which supports the Hindu cause there?

I think the reason why BJP is weak in WB is simply because the media is not really projecting the loss of the Hindus. Also Bengali writers need to write more on the problems.

That is all that BJP needs to win over WB.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 09 Apr 2013 20:35

Bengali Hindu's of the left variety are their own biggest enemies, they are also 99.999% if all Hindu's in Bengal in influential position.

25 years of loony tunes has left Bengal severely crippled, not just governance and economy wise, but also intellectualy .

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 09 Apr 2013 20:36

BJP has presence in many seats in WB. Though, except some, it may not be able to win. In era long gone by, in 1990s when BJP faught election alone, it gained 12% vote in WB (QUOTING FROM MEMORY). The seats that BJP won on its own (no alliance) are Dum Dum and Bara Bajar. These two BJP can pull still. Then it has chances in Purulia, Darjling (with coalition, it holds the current seat) and few other seats (though Hindus have started voting now when these districts have turned muslim majority already). I will be happy with BJP getting 2-5 seats on its own. I hope Mamta wins the rest, lion share. Even if she does not come to NDA, these will not go to UPA or communist (which is UPA).
rgds,
fanne

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 09 Apr 2013 20:44

Congress prospects assessed in AP

fun read...

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 09 Apr 2013 20:49

Hari Seldon wrote:Congress prospects assessed in AP

fun read...

HS ji, there is a major problem in AP political scene though something TDP/BJP should/can exploit out and out if planned carefully and well.

Basically between Congress and YSRCP (and to some extent TDP) the state is ruled by 42 families. Same family members are in all these parties INC/YSRCP and TDP.

There are rumors that INC might give more seats to women and <45yrs candidates. That means young and female family members (read - daughters, wives and DILs) of the same families will be INC faces for sure.

Husbands/brothers/SILs will stand on YSRCP tickets.

This is where the opportunity lies for others. Identify new, young, honest and nationalistic candidates from these communities and give them support.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Apr 2013 22:36

fanne wrote:BJP has presence in many seats in WB.

BJP got 6.14% of the vote in WB in 2009.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 09 Apr 2013 22:42

delete/

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 09 Apr 2013 22:42

RajeshA wrote:
With 27% population of Muslims in WB especially as they have been rampaging here and there, why is polarization not taking place. And when it does, where do the Hindus go to and why?

Is there any party at all, which supports the Hindu cause there?

I think the reason why BJP is weak in WB is simply because the media is not really projecting the loss of the Hindus. Also Bengali writers need to write more on the problems.

That is all that BJP needs to win over WB.

It is due to partly fear and partly brainwashing. The Bengali likes to think of himself as bhadralok (gentleman) and cultured and non-Bengalies specially Hindi speaking ones as uncultured. So one of the fear is to turn-up "communal" which is part of being uncultured if it favored parties like BJP which in any case is a party of those "uncultured North-Indians". The other part is Communist brainwashing which has led to the articulation of legitimate community grievances to be labeled as "communal". Today you can build a Aliya University and AMU for Muslims only and not be labeled communal but if you want to build a BHU you will be labeled communal.
However, the economy in WB is in dire straits with a Bihar in the making (there were 55 lakh applicants for 35000 primary teaching posts) and there is growing uneasiness with being reduced to a minority in many areas. Bengalies will start acting only when they have no other option. Till then the strategy is to use the TMC and hope the Communists disintegrate and the politics moves away from the North Korean model. Another 5-10% decrease in Left votes and you will begin to see the "disintegration model". If the Communists start disintegrating then the INC and BJP will come into the picture. The big question is "Will the Communists disintegrate?" or will we go back to the Kerala model (Cuban model with high HDI but no jobs) where they keep coming back.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 09 Apr 2013 23:16

1991 Sanku ji

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 09 Apr 2013 23:42

Cash for Ticket: HC notice to Sonia, Karnataka Cong chief

http://indiawires.com/21411/news/nation ... ong-chief/

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 09 Apr 2013 23:52

AAP Kaun Ho ???

http://risinggladiator.com/2013/04/08/aap-kaun-ho/

Abhijit · Post by **Abhijit** » 10 Apr 2013 01:36

Sushupti wrote:AAP Kaun Ho ???

http://risinggladiator.com/2013/04/08/aap-kaun-ho/

Good blog. Left a supportive message and did 'dunda' to a troll.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 10 Apr 2013 03:33

^^^^
twitter

Sadanand Dhume ‏@dhume01 6h

One of the nicer developments of the past 6 months has been the slide to irrelevance of Arvind Kejriwal and his band of moral grandstanders.

Bad thing is some of the delhites still drink kool aid enabling congis to scrape past again.
of course the Delhi BJP giving a walkover sort of with its insipid leadership.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 10 Apr 2013 03:55

This guy is a Nacxalite. Don't even get me started on his criminal partner Bushan. They are going nowhere. He will just rake up some issue here and there and milk foreign NGO's.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 10 Apr 2013 04:19

On table, EVMs with printouts

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1130410/j ... WSfNhKYNok

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 10 Apr 2013 06:50

Sushupti wrote:On table, EVMs with printouts

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1130410/j ... WSfNhKYNok

Swamy had suggested that EVMs must at least have a provision to give a printout of a voter’s choice

^^ This is too idiotic to to be true. Cant SS see how this "printout of the ballot" will result in all kind of abuse of the process ??

Whole communities can be bought , abused , browbeaten and forced with threats of violence and rape and what more now the enforcers will have receipts to confirm whether their required choice in ballot has been cast. I agree that there must be a paper trail. But its equally important that the paper has to stay in the box. Not presented to the voter.

I vaguely remember Pranav ji giving his approval to Swamy's initiative but didnt have the time to state this then (frankly i didnt think they will go ahead with this)...

Regarding Money and coersive power in action below post by B ji is informative

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 8#p1315338

brihaspati wrote:
Let us be realistic about the voting issue. Many from the upper crusts of society tend to shout a lot about the power of "voting", and somehow election results as self-legitimizing of some representation of popular sentiments.

The ground reality will not be obvious, unless you have worked from within the political system to see how votes are really extracted, and who manages this extraction. In most cases, for a very wide area of India, geographically and demographically - the aam voter is tied to financier+politico+crminal nexus, and depend on them for their livelihood or the safety of tehir life an dlimb and their family. I know the system working from the grassroots level. Take an urban slum for example - in most cases these people are on illegally occupied land, occupied by an influential urban goonda [who might be from an illustriously civilized and advanced section of society+party+education etc], who then lets it out to slum dwellers. The bosses' party/chamcha collects rent+women+other benefits, and even provide employment and tae a cut from that employment in the name of the boss/party. The gloriously superior Raj-hangover police forces are in total cahoots with whoever ahppens tod ominate the local biz+politco+mafia scene. [Their own upper level hierarchy will have corresponding ties with corresponding outer-civilized goondas at corresponding levels].

There are ways and means to estimate how people from a zone have voted. The conseuqneces of wrong voting - that is not according to the wishes of the prevailing wind within the biz+politico+criminal network dominating that zone, can be disastrous for the people. Their livelihood may be jeopardized, or even their lives and limbs or their women. This is how it works on the ground.

Because people have no means to ensure their own physical safety - the state monopolizes all right to violence, [and of course those it tolerates as part of the criminal nexus to crry out violence according political or financial secret needs and decisions], the police still think they are kind of detached and superior Raj type lords of the people and basically help protect the existing power's interests - people cannot hit back, even through votes. But note that "existing pwoer" is actually determined by the interests of the underlying criminal+politico+financier network and not necessarily just on the party in power.

When we see regime changes through voting, its because the underlying financier+criminal nexus has decided to teach the existing regime a lesson or that they think they will gain more with a change.

Its no use lambasting Hindus or aam for voting in the wrong way. I know what I am saying could be twisted into support for extra-constitutional means. That is not what I imply. The means to change is through mass movements, civil disobedience, in such large numbers that the biz+crminal guys themselves think that it would be better to switch to this new force to stay in profiteering and hence do not combine with the state's coercive forces to crush the nascent dissent. It is the task of the elite dissenters to show the way. They know - just as they have known and used for centuries - the internal weknesses of the elite, its factions, the educational wherewithal to utilize all fissures, and the confidence of "being right" that comes with being born into elite sections.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 10 Apr 2013 06:52

Sushupti wrote:On table, EVMs with printouts

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1130410/j ... WSfNhKYNok

They are delaying in such a way that this version is not going to be used in KA. If LS are pre-phoned there is a chance that these will not be used in this round.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 10 Apr 2013 06:53

Lilo wrote: Whole communities can be bought , abused , browbeaten and forced with threats of violence and rape and what more now the enforcers will have receipts to confirm whether their required choice in ballot has been cast. I agree that there must be a paper trail. But its equally important that the paper has to stay in the box. Not presented to the voter.

The whole plan is to have two slips, one after the voter sees it goes into box and the other one gets to the voter. It has been demoed that way.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 10 Apr 2013 07:03

Muppalla wrote:
Lilo wrote: Whole communities can be bought , abused , browbeaten and forced with threats of violence and rape and what more now the enforcers will have receipts to confirm whether their required choice in ballot has been cast. I agree that there must be a paper trail. But its equally important that the paper has to stay in the box. Not presented to the voter.
The whole plan is to have two slips, one after the voter sees it goes into box and the other one gets to the voter. It has been demoed that way.

Actually there is only one slip which gets put into a box. So it will be more or less equivalent to traditional ballots. But the voter should take the slip and put it by his own hand into the box. Don't have the details as yet.

Also, it is likely that vested interests delay as much as possible.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 10 Apr 2013 07:16

Lilo wrote: ^^ This is too idiotic to to be true. Cant SS see how this "printout of the ballot" will result in all kind of abuse of the process ??

Whole communities can be bought , abused , browbeaten and forced with threats of violence and rape and what more now the enforcers will have receipts to confirm whether their required choice in ballot has been cast. I agree that there must be a paper trail. But its equally important that the paper has to stay in the box. Not presented to the voter.

It will be good that violence will be disclosed if paper verification is done. In old days you would know when goonda was elected that he bought, abused, brownbeat, forced with violence and rape of voters. Now same goonda gets elected, you wouldn't know the nature of the goonda.

Disclosure is the beauty of the paper voting and EVM voting with paper verification dropped in ballot.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 11 Apr 2013 05:32

Clash in NTR family, interest in YSR Cong

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/clash ... /1100477/0

ashkrishna · Post by **ashkrishna** » 11 Apr 2013 12:02

Just pulling up some data on the AP elections (parl.) in 2009. These are constituencies where the TDP came second. I am comparing margins with 2004.

Can some AP gurus tell me how the PRP's Merger with INC will affect the outcome here?

munna · Post by **munna** » 11 Apr 2013 14:41

Cross Post from NaMo thread

Shanta Kumar ki Jai Ho!!! After poor Mr. Kalia, Shanta faction claims another scalp in Punjab. At this rate there will no mass leader worth his name remaining active in the party. If no corrections are made then BJP will get a big fat 0 this time. This shining tower of ego from Palampur has now cost 3 states to BJP. Modi cannot, simply cannot hope to win if he lets mass leaders be shot down by these has beens shunted out from their home states as Prabharis to indulge their sadistic tendencies.

2012 = No Kalia
2013 = No Sidhu
2014 = No Seats

Brilliant no?

Sidhu Ignored: 2013

BJP MP from Amritsar, Navjot Singh Sidhu, will not contest the 2014 Lok Sabha polls as he has been 'sidelined' by his party, his wife and BJP Chief Parliamentary Secretary Navjot Kaur Sidhu said on Wednesday.

On her Facebook page on Sunday, she had written in length expressing anguish over Sidhu not being in the loop to "run the show (of party) even in Amritsar, not to talk about the whole of Punjab". Among the things she wrote on her page, were "evil wins over; still kaliyug; Amritsar loses a real leader, who struggled to make the divine city beautiful. I salute him because truth always wins".
In one of her posts, she had asked whether Sidhu had been ignored "because he will not promote corrupt leaders and those who join the Opposition leaders to defeat their own men, will not be a party to engulf peoples properties, will not ring up police officials to support criminals?"

Kalia Ignored: 2012

The camp of former minister Manoranjan Kalia, who won from Jalandhar (Central) in this election, has been feeling ignored ever since Bhagat Chunni Lal was elected as the leader of BJP legislators in Vidhan Sabha. Kalia was nominated as the leader of BJP legislators in 2007. "With this move of the BJP High Command the chances of Kalia's becoming a minister are getting dim," said a senior BJP leader. Both Kalia and Bhagat are three-time MLAs.

Punjab, HP, Chandigarh and Haryana are threatening to snowball into a balckhole for BJP. But Modi hai na???

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 11 Apr 2013 15:06

Munde strikes back in MH politics. Nagpur's Devendra Phadnavis becomes State-chief for BJP. It is said to be a slight set back to Gadkari for he was backing the name of Manguntivar. Phadnavis is close to Munde and also to Reshim Baug and is a compromise candidate.

It is good to see Munde reactivated in MH. Hope he makes up for his inactivity in past 5-6 years.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 11 Apr 2013 15:24

ashkrishna wrote:Just pulling up some data on the AP elections (parl.) in 2009. These are constituencies where the TDP came second. I am comparing margins with 2004.

Can some AP gurus tell me how the PRP's Merger with INC will affect the outcome here?

It is very difficult to tell like that as it is not even pure math or derivable info. PRC derived votes from both INC and TDP in 2009. Its merger to INC is not an en-block merger of votes into INC.

In the same token, YSRC and INC have same votes and that is definitely going to split even if the pie that INC gets is smaller. AP is not predicable using past election's data for 2014. Only several serious survey can give some indication.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 11 Apr 2013 15:51

Published on Apr 11, 2013
JD-U may ask BJP to name its PM candidate soon, Sharad Yadav hints his party won't compromise on Narendra Modi as choice

Ahead of its national executive meeting, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) has been sending strong signals to its ally BJP that it might ask the latter to name the NDA's prime ministerial candidate at the earliest.

Sources said that a decision was likely to be made in this regard by the coming weekend as the JD-U has time and again indicated that it would not like BJP's strongest candidate -- Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi -- because of his "non-secular" credentials.

Party president Sharad Yadav , who is all set to retain the post in its election on April 14, made it clear once again that the JD-U would not let Modi emerge the consensus candidate for the NDA.

"We are not against any person, but we have some principles and that cannot be compromised," Yadav said on Thursday when asked about his party's view on Modi.

The JD-U appears to have made up its mind that it would accept only someone with a secular image. That means Modi would not pass the JD-U hurdle.

The BJP on its part has refrained from announcing its prime ministerial candidate for fear of offending the JD-U. However, the JD-U now does not want to wait till the very end and want the BJP to declare its leader for 2014 general election now.

On the other hand, the BJP has been trying to downplay the matter saying that the JD-U internal issues do not concern its alliance with the party.

And the UPA has already been sensing opportunity in the possible head on collision between the two key NDA allies and has initiated the secular versus communal debate. The Congress and the NCP have said that the NDA must make a choice between the two.

There could in fact be a parting of ways and pretty soon. It seems the Congress has indeed made an arrangement with JD(U) and paid them good money.

They need JD(U) at the center, now that DMK has left UPA and Samajwadi Party too may withdraw its external support.

Also in Bihar, in a Legislative Assembly of 243 seats, the various parties have:

Code: Select all

Janata Dal (United)..............115
Bharatiya Janata Party............91
Rashtriya Janata Dal..............22
Lok Janshakti Party................3
Indian National Congress...........4
Communist Party of India...........1
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha	..........1		
Independents.......................6

So in Bihar, JD(U) can keep its government even without the BJP, and Congress and a few Independents can lend a hand.

BJP should go it alone in Bihar!

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 11 Apr 2013 15:56

If JD(U) divorces on its own then it is not one way street. There will be substantial from the 115 who can break away. Forget about BJP in this analysis, JD(U) will have serious trouble at the polls if it goes away from BJP as its voters are not some easily markable exclusive block away from BJP. Vinaashakaale vipareethabuddhi.

geeth · Post by **geeth** » 11 Apr 2013 16:11

you mean, it is difficult to wean away few JD(U) MLAs and make the govt collapse? Afterall, Kangress& others together are only 12 and NiKu needs atleast 7 of them to keep going..

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 11 Apr 2013 16:57

Published on Apr 11, 2013
By R Jagannathan
Why BJP should oblige Nitish and announce its PM nominee

Reasons to Nominate Modi NOW

Announcing NOW helps BJP prepare itself for 2014, build up its strength, get over anti-incumbency
Break-up with JD(U) NOW allows a reaching out post poll in 2014. Last minute break-up makes this difficult.
Doing away with ambiguity NOW, helps BJP prepare in a coherent way.
Allies respect strength, so BJP cannot allow JD(U) to dictate terms. "Secularism" as an issue NOW would help the voter evaluate Modi on his own in the meantime.
BJP should deal more confidently with the "secular vs communal" angle and not let others paint it into a corner.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 11 Apr 2013 17:38

Indeed Rajesh ji. A bitter pill but it will lead BJP to a grand recovery.
Wish they have the stomach for it.
It is politically fine even if they don't declare the candidate.
But what an awe inspiring act it would be for all, if BJP would enter the fight with a face and would be proud of wearing it.
Sigghhhh ....

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 11 Apr 2013 18:10

Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav think that by pressing BJP to name Modi, they can jump ship and go over to UPA getting both a "secularism" pat and a big cash award.

Nitish Kumar can hope for a few million dollars from UPA for saving their skin before the polls in April-May 2014. So he is probably thinking why not encash the cheque.

In Bihar he has already got a strong majority (115/243), and if the BJP leaves the Bihar government, he will have even more portfolios to distribute among the JD(U) legislators. Besides he still has 2½ years before the next Assembly elections during which time he can consolidate his position.

So I think he is going to go for it! There is no point for BJP to wait for him or to appease him.

In any case, I think BJP wanted to wait before announcing Modi. Now they may be forced to, PERHAPS! So basically Nitish Kumar is doing Modi a service as well.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 11 Apr 2013 20:21

^^^^
will be fun on both sides including congis-
1) If BJP announces NaMo as PM candidate- both NiKu and congis will claim that they forced BJP to announce their" agenda". Muslims should go to them.
For BJP cadres it will enthuse them to work harder for victory. For NaMo baiters it is curtains for top leadership but will try internal sabotage to scuttle his chances.

2) congis will make paid media on over drive as usual regarding "communal vs secular" debate. As more polarisation is useful for congis. However it will reduce the votes for Mayawati and Mullah yadav. this can make them see red-- CBI will come in handy at any point for congis. OTOH the very OBC fact of NaMo will further reduce the votes for Mullah yadav and Mayawati.

3) polarisation may cut both ways-- more votes can go to NaMo kitty also.

4) By making NaMo PM choice , BJP can make them go full throttle on the corrupt queen bee.

5) Advantage for NaMo is the youth brigade who can propagate his speeches and actions on ground. Congis are paid volunteers with tax payers money. It will not last long.

The main question for BJP -
a) when to take the bait and announce NaMo as PM choice.
b) can it afford to sideline the detractors inside

NaMo
a) continue to do Bharat Darshan into the interiors of India regarding development hijacking the agenda of communal vs secular debate which in truth is no debate as NaMo is a true Bharatiya.
b) destroy the aura of queen bee both amongst the urban and rural folks.

BJP cadres
motivate the voters to cast votes.

tall order but eminently doable.