Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Oct 2013 20:51

CNN IBN says that BJP is getting a 6.7% swing in Rajasthan (41%) against Congress (32%). The BJP is expected to get 115-125 with Congress expected to get 60-68.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 29 Oct 2013 21:25

May be the 'international factor' is yet to be considered for elections. Secularists getting riled up for co-religionists (

factor?, pardon secular/co-religion contradiction or green color pun, wholly coincidental) even when co-religonists or co-co-religionists are outright corrupt.

There will be pressure to not harm corrupt co-co-religionists and that totally uncivilized and undemocratic problem will be passed off as secularism onlee. Ex Jagan, Muslim League etc and no pretenders at international press are pontificating to corrupt and violent nature.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Oct 2013 22:23

Nageshks, Now that BJP's Delhi leadership issue is settled what are their prospects? I think its important for the political mindspace for BJP to win Delhi.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Oct 2013 23:21

ramana wrote:Nageshks, Now that BJP's Delhi leadership issue is settled what are their prospects? I think its important for the political mindspace for BJP to win Delhi.

CNN IBN is scheduled to address Delhi tomorrow. Will watch what they say and let you all know.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 30 Oct 2013 00:06

nageshks wrote:CNN IBN says that BJP is getting a 6.7% swing in Rajasthan (41%) against Congress (32%). The BJP is expected to get 115-125 with Congress expected to get 60-68.

Looks like Modi election is affecting all these states. Will Delhi be immune?

I think Modi should avoid sparring over Patel/Nehru. There is no up side to that kind of quarrel. It only diverts the issues of MisGovernance, Price Rise, Economy, Growth and gives PAID MEDIA to demonize Modi.

Let the focus be on PAPPU and his stupid talk

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 30 Oct 2013 00:29

I wonder if poor Pappu is being forced to don the mantle that he is not cut out to wear. Sometimes I feel as if all his anger and condescending is fake and he would rather be somewhere else than hot and humid political landscape of India.
Yes he can always walk away from this but then walking away is never an option in mafia.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 30 Oct 2013 00:43

vivek.rao wrote:
nageshks wrote:CNN IBN says that BJP is getting a 6.7% swing in Rajasthan (41%) against Congress (32%). The BJP is expected to get 115-125 with Congress expected to get 60-68.
Looks like Modi election is affecting all these states. Will Delhi be immune?

I think Modi should avoid sparring over Patel/Nehru. There is no up side to that kind of quarrel. It only diverts the issues of MisGovernance, Price Rise, Economy, Growth and gives PAID MEDIA to demonize Modi.

Let the focus be on PAPPU and his stupid talk

Modi is questioning the roots of Dynasty. He is re-opening the unspoken history of post-Independence era. The idea is to remove the halo of dynasty and making them look like any other political family. NM has been talking about this even during his "coming out" speech in HT conclave, where he openly questioned Nehru's policy of opening a Hotel in a capital-deficient India, right in the heart of Delhi establishment.

Many people (even in Gujarat) vote for INC because they perceive it as Gandhiji's and Sardar's party. Probably someone from MP Raj CH can comment on the extent of legacy vote in those states.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 30 Oct 2013 02:08

^^ Probably true. Probably aiming at long term elimination of dienasty and see if nationalists can take over CON party

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 30 Oct 2013 02:11

Who in modern India still votes for Congress as Gandhi and Patel's party. It is JLN and his family all the way.
At least JLN and IG were tall leaders in their own light and were popular with masses across India.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 30 Oct 2013 04:20

VikasRaina wrote:Who in modern India still votes for Congress as Gandhi and Patel's party. It is JLN and his family all the way.
At least JLN and IG were tall leaders in their own light and were popular with masses across India.

Bingo, India votes for the dynasty, they vote for freebies, for false entitlement, thats what it is about, nothing else. But Modi is not a fool. He knows this. The reason he harps on patel is very simple and it has to do with local gujarati politics.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 30 Oct 2013 04:54

the word on Bihar street about Nikumma is that he is Chotta and chottapanthi kar raha hai. I do not believe there is equivalent English word or any other close hindi word so I will try to explain what it means - a small petty criminal who is without moral of any kind, an unscrupulous guy who lack of ethics is only surpassed by his smallness (in power and otherwise)..someone who is now beneath contempt.....

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 30 Oct 2013 05:20

fanne ji, may be "petty (or petite which is pronounced with second t silent)" is the word you are looking for?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 30 Oct 2013 05:54

paging usual suspect, Loyla college (you know from where) use to do surveys (mostly KA), that has been quite accurate. 2008 survey showed youths were with congress (they got EC to get help of cricketers and philum stars to advertise that youth should go out and vote). Now IBN/CNN is showing youths are with BJP decisively. I do not have confidence in these guys (the number could have been same, but with Yogender Yadav anal-yzing that time and not this time, very hard to tell), Loyala survey can tell us the real picture.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 30 Oct 2013 06:48

fanne wrote:paging usual suspect, Loyla college (you know from where) use to do surveys (mostly KA), that has been quite accurate. 2008 survey showed youths were with congress (they got EC to get help of cricketers and philum stars to advertise that youth should go out and vote). Now IBN/CNN is showing youths are with BJP decisively. I do not have confidence in these guys (the number could have been same, but with Yogender Yadav anal-yzing that time and not this time, very hard to tell), Loyala survey can tell us the real picture.

fanne ji. I will see if they have any survey. But look at peoplespulse.in They have good surveys too. The youth in 2008 was with cong, but now they are with bjp. but the new youth in rajasthan (as per that survey) is with bjp, but not as much as people who are 5 years elder than them. So looks like youth start as pro cong and then move towards bjp.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Oct 2013 07:42

It will be a change of mood if CNN-IBN does not project a three way race between AAP, INC and BJP in Delhi and telling the viewers that AAP is closing in on BJP. They can give good surveys where there is no completion but they can give a close call in a state like Delhi which actually will help AAP.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 30 Oct 2013 08:26

fanne wrote:the word on Bihar street about Nikumma is that he is Chotta and chottapanthi kar raha hai. I do not believe there is equivalent English word or any other close hindi word so I will try to explain what it means - a small petty criminal who is without moral of any kind, an unscrupulous guy who lack of ethics is only surpassed by his smallness (in power and otherwise)..someone who is now beneath contempt.....

+1. Pitashri visiting Bihar currently and in his interaction with folks the mood for satta parivartan seems to be overwhelming.

Added later: Price rise seems to be the biggest culprit. Bihar being one of the poorest, price rise has hammered them disproportionately

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 30 Oct 2013 11:00

I wish to coin a new meaning of UPA : United Paralysis Alliance. I hope this gets to Modi and he uses it in next meeting. The way they have ignored the killing of the recent Arihant scientists again demo that there is an absolute paralysis on responding to any issues that nation and people faces.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 30 Oct 2013 11:19

subhamoy.das wrote:I wish to coin a new meaning of UPA : United Paralysis Alliance.

Unlimited Power for Antinationals?

niran · Post by **niran** » 30 Oct 2013 11:32

nageshks wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:I wish to coin a new meaning of UPA : United Paralysis Alliance.
Unlimited Powered Antinationals?

edited out the mijtake onree

M Joshi · Post by **M Joshi** » 30 Oct 2013 15:41

CNNIBN-CSDS-Hindu survey for state polls.

Rajasthan:

MP:

Chhatisgarh:

"Tsunamo" not storm.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Oct 2013 16:33

Tell me the same for Delhi. I will say a change in Media houses is happening if they project BJP's win in Delhi

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 30 Oct 2013 16:52

Muppalla wrote:Tell me the same for Delhi. I will say a change in Media houses is happening if they project BJP's win in Delhi

How can that happen when CSDS is led by an AAP member ?

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 30 Oct 2013 17:03

subhamoy.das wrote:I wish to coin a new meaning of UPA : United Paralysis Alliance. I hope this gets to Modi and he uses it in next meeting. The way they have ignored the killing of the recent Arihant scientists again demo that there is an absolute paralysis on responding to any issues that nation and people faces.

Why are you mocking Paralysis victims by equating them with UPA?

Just kidding

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 30 Oct 2013 17:05

Where is the prediction on bjp seats in Chattisgarh?

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 30 Oct 2013 17:09

^ 61-71. Much better than any one could hope.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 30 Oct 2013 17:09

Narayana Rao wrote:Where is the prediction on bjp seats in Chattisgarh?

61-71 for BJP and 16-24 for Congress.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 30 Oct 2013 17:23

What's the condition in Bihar?

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 30 Oct 2013 17:46

karan, did you try the firstpost vote ? according to it bjp is winning landslide in WB and kerala. just goes to show what the netizens think, I guess.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 30 Oct 2013 17:49

Bihar, the outcome really depends on who forms the coalition against BJP, who the partners are. In theoretical situation of everyone going alone, BJP will get 35 out of 40 seats!!

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 30 Oct 2013 20:38

cnn ibn poll for delhi:
19- 25 for AAP
19-25 for Congress
25-28 for BJP

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 30 Oct 2013 20:42

^ 35 is the half way mark. way too close (vote share is cong:28%, aap:27% bjp:29%) and if true, AAP has successfully played the spoiler

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 30 Oct 2013 20:56

^AAP seats seem exaggerated given Yogendra Yadav's association with them. In any case, some of the AAP folks, and some independents and Congies could be bought over. BJP seems set for a 4-0 victory!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 30 Oct 2013 22:58

Amol.D wrote:^ 35 is the half way mark. way too close (vote share is cong:28%, aap:27% bjp:29%) and if true, AAP has successfully played the spoiler

survey surely looks cooked up. So do their other surveys also. Chattisgarh is quite close, i doubt BJP can pull off comfortably. Rajasthan is also quite tight. BJP may scrape thru, but not quite convincingly.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 30 Oct 2013 23:18

AAP will sink its ship along with congress. Likh lo.

AAP is < 5.

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 30 Oct 2013 23:20

muraliravi wrote: survey surely looks cooked up. So do their other surveys also. Chattisgarh is quite close, i doubt BJP can pull off comfortably. Rajasthan is also quite tight. BJP may scrape thru, but not quite convincingly.

And why would they cook this up? Not like the survey companies are pro-BJP!

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 30 Oct 2013 23:25

Rahul M wrote:karan, did you try the firstpost vote ? according to it bjp is winning landslide in WB and kerala. just goes to show what the netizens think, I guess.

Require all 4 emoticons i think. Are they merely click surveys from site, or surveys on ground.

So do you think the other surveys as well are fixed? They look credible..at least polling people on ground

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 30 Oct 2013 23:34

rajithn wrote:
muraliravi wrote: survey surely looks cooked up. So do their other surveys also. Chattisgarh is quite close, i doubt BJP can pull off comfortably. Rajasthan is also quite tight. BJP may scrape thru, but not quite convincingly.
And why would they cook this up? Not like the survey companies are pro-BJP!

Probably trying the 2004 game. Make BJP voters think that BJP is anyway winning, so why vote. In delhi the opposite, this khuliwal wont even win his own seat, but show him like a winnable party and make BJP voters try him and in the process make congress win.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 30 Oct 2013 23:36

Guys,

Mizoram is also a state. So here is some news: http://www.indianexpress.com/news/oppn- ... m/1188856/

Hope they kick congress out of there also. So it will be a wash out.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 31 Oct 2013 01:15

Ashok Sarraff wrote:^AAP seats seem exaggerated given Yogendra Yadav's association with them. In any case, some of the AAP folks, and some independents and Congies could be bought over. BJP seems set for a 4-0 victory!

As per Albatroosinflight, survey was done before Harshvardhan's name was announced.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 31 Oct 2013 04:58

Sushupti wrote:
Ashok Sarraff wrote:^AAP seats seem exaggerated given Yogendra Yadav's association with them. In any case, some of the AAP folks, and some independents and Congies could be bought over. BJP seems set for a 4-0 victory!
As per Albatroosinflight, survey was done before Harshvardhan's name was announced.

Rajdeep mentioned it quite clearly in the show