Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Vikas
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vikas » 31 Oct 2013 06:55

If BJP sweeps all 4 states, would that cause LS elections to be advanced or will have no effect on central Govt and its working (or lack of working) ?
About AAP, they are nothing but nuisance in the grand scheme of things. More popular on TV Channels than on ground. Showing them neck and neck with Congress and BJP is utter rubbish. Unless EVM play their role, it is going to be BJP all the way in Delhi.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 31 Oct 2013 07:19

^^^
Yesterday itself I thought that CNN-IBN will put AAP in neck-to-neck position. :) Surveys are other means to propaganda.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby fanne » 31 Oct 2013 07:22

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-we ... al-1911520

So if there is EVM magic, this is how it will go down in 2014. AAP spoils enough for BJP in Delhi that congress to pull through (courtesy EVM). He repeats that (EVM again) in Mumbai, Banglore, Other odd urban center (Chandigarh, Lucknow etc) and make 25 -30 seats either go congress way or AAP way. Then AAP in name of secularism supports Cong. Sounds like an old movie you have seen (starring Chiranjivi), you bet it is.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RoyG » 31 Oct 2013 07:36

Jayalalithaa is hedging her bets.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby niran » 31 Oct 2013 08:04

The above surveys are hogwash attempts to reverse the NaMo tide
AAP was formed to slice off votes from bhajapa but to their horror congress
in all their internal survey found AAP was slicing into the congress votes and
would not win a single seat hence this propaganda AAP will get this and bhajapa that
just yesterday one AAP candidate who is a convicted wife beater got to know
real atta, dal ka rate when people shut their doors on his face keeds ran away yelling
rakshas aya and for desert his subordinates got into fistcuff over the day wages.
but all this did not happen coz no link can be provided.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Santosh » 31 Oct 2013 09:31

RoyG wrote:Jayalalithaa is hedging her bets.

Pliss to expand onlee.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby abhik » 31 Oct 2013 09:53

Why the sudden modesty by Yogendra Yadav? Just a few days before he was claiming that AAP will get a simple majority, 33 seats or so according to their own internal survey.
Amol.D wrote:cnn ibn poll for delhi:
19- 25 for AAP
19-25 for Congress
25-28 for BJP

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 31 Oct 2013 09:57

AAP wish to cheat people and there is always people who can be cheated. It also represent powerful gora funding agencies. Just like colored revolutions in erstwhile soviet union, goras are trying here in India also. First attempt is Lok Pal drama and now this.

Never underestimate them. If anything bjp should try seriously to select good candidates, no internal fighting and day and night hard work.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 31 Oct 2013 10:00

abhik wrote:Why the sudden modesty by Yogendra Yadav? Just a few days before he was claiming that AAP will get a simple majority, 33 seats or so according to their own internal survey.
Amol.D wrote:cnn ibn poll for delhi:
19- 25 for AAP
19-25 for Congress
25-28 for BJP


Maybe that kind of kite flying would be too obvious?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 31 Oct 2013 10:03

Narayana Rao wrote:AAP wish to cheat people and there is always people who can be cheated. It also represent powerful gora funding agencies. Just like colored revolutions in erstwhile soviet union, goras are trying here in India also. First attempt is Lok Pal drama and now this.

Never underestimate them. If anything bjp should try seriously to select good candidates, no internal fighting and day and night hard work.


AAP is the part of the liberal lobby that did not get into the NAC. Both the liberal lobbies (the one in the NAC and the one that did not get in) are funded by the west. The Congress and its stooges are getting too much flak and are unlikely to win. So - this second line of leadership to make sure that the west does not lose out, and Indian nationalism is contained. If the BJP wins, they should go after the foreign funding and make it very hard for anyone to get foreign funding for socio-political projects.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby niran » 31 Oct 2013 10:19

nageshks wrote: If the BJP wins, they should go after the foreign funding and make it very hard for anyone to get foreign funding for socio-political projects.

simpal zee, make furrin money donation taxable and charge service tax, VAT, and all the employes at the agency made to pay income tax on the amount donated from furrin.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby merlin » 31 Oct 2013 10:23

fanne wrote:http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-we-ll-be-in-mumbai-too-all-depends-on-delhi-arvind-kejriwal-1911520

So if there is EVM magic, this is how it will go down in 2014. AAP spoils enough for BJP in Delhi that congress to pull through (courtesy EVM). He repeats that (EVM again) in Mumbai, Banglore, Other odd urban center (Chandigarh, Lucknow etc) and make 25 -30 seats either go congress way or AAP way. Then AAP in name of secularism supports Cong. Sounds like an old movie you have seen (starring Chiranjivi), you bet it is.


For EVM magic to happen, first perception has to be created that there is a very close race that can go any way. So surveys are first created and "independent" surveys are rigged. Then EVM magic happens. Maybe for assembly elections it will be done only in Dilli but no holds barred in LS elections next year.

All the ducks are in a row (EC, SC, CBI, IA, IB).

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby kmkraoind » 31 Oct 2013 12:45

What Micromax is to Nokia, Kejriwal’s AAP is to Dikshit - Firstpost

My comment:
Some similarities and problems:
Nokia - An European company, most popular in India, because it entered India first.
Congress- A party started by European, most popular in India, because it started early than any party.

Micromax - Mere Indian brand label, where it is actually manufactured in China with Taiwan chips and American OS.
AAP - Mere Indian face - where it ideology is actually comes commie China, Arabs funding, with American Ford Foundation running the show.

Then AAP is Micromax.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vishvak » 31 Oct 2013 18:23

niran wrote:
nageshks wrote: If the BJP wins, they should go after the foreign funding and make it very hard for anyone to get foreign funding for socio-political projects.

simpal zee, make furrin money donation taxable and charge service tax, VAT, and all the employes at the agency made to pay income tax on the amount donated from furrin.

Or donations acceptable only from secular countries and not pseudo secular countries passing off as civilized. Plus VISA and recognition only to secular people not pseudo secular ones who have done actual work in secular manner not pseudo secular manner or backing indirectly to be passed off as civilized.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 31 Oct 2013 18:36

fanne wrote:http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-we-ll-be-in-mumbai-too-all-depends-on-delhi-arvind-kejriwal-1911520

So if there is EVM magic, this is how it will go down in 2014. AAP spoils enough for BJP in Delhi that congress to pull through (courtesy EVM). He repeats that (EVM again) in Mumbai, Banglore, Other odd urban center (Chandigarh, Lucknow etc) and make 25 -30 seats either go congress way or AAP way. Then AAP in name of secularism supports Cong. Sounds like an old movie you have seen (starring Chiranjivi), you bet it is.


to fanne ji's point on EVM and AAP party. Saar, dilli is quite small and nothing on earth is stopping modi and his team from having 64 candidates in each seat. Already probably there will be 10-15 candidates in each seat. All they need to do is fund 50 more in each seat, so that is 3500 people. Kind of nothing for a party like BJP. I dont believe BJP is not aware of this, TRS has done it, GVL who is a member of the BJP and meets modi regularly has cited this before. Either they believe they have a handle on the evm's or they think evm's are not tamperable. So i will not buy this explanation that BJP loses becos of AAP nor will i will buy this explanation that it was actually evm giving votes to aap and in the name of aap congress won.

BJP can well force a ballot if they fear the evm by putting 64 candidates.

They have lost 3 elections in a row in delhi, why do you think they should win this time and if they lose it is evm. A party that was squabbling openly just 8 weeks before elections against a well oiled congress machinery in delhi is never destined to win. Have you seen congress vote share in delhi in LS 2009. They had 54% vs 30 of BJP. I would argue that AAP is doing BJP a favor by screwing congress equally, or else i am pretty sure that at a state level BJP would have lost delhi, they may have won 2014 LS in delhi owing to modi. They have done that in the past too, lost 98 assembly and won 99 LS in delhi.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Kakkaji » 31 Oct 2013 19:39

If you shut down foreign donations, then what happens to donations I (and other NRIs) send to Ekal Vidyalaya, Sewa Bharati, and Akshay Patra? :-?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Pranav » 31 Oct 2013 19:45

x-posted from political Christianity thread -

Crash course to show India's Christians how to vote
Will it have any impact on the 2014 election?

John Dayal, India
India, September 10, 2013

Great hope is being pinned on a recently launched crash course in electoral politics for the Christian, particularly the Catholic, population in India to prepare them for the general elections scheduled for early 2014.

The object is to counter and, if possible, defeat right wing Hindu nationalist groups who are making a determined bid to wrest political power in New Delhi in the general elections. The Church leadership and laity are being told how they can synergize their voting strength in select constituencies in collaboration with other groups in so as not to divide what is said to be the “secular vote”.

This, it is presumed, will help defeat the political parties with a history of antagonism towards religious minorities.

This political exercise has been undertaken by a small group in the Archdiocese of Delhi working with representatives of Protestant churches and Muslim religious leaders, apart from a handful of civil society activists.

But members of the core lay team spearheading this campaign in applied democracy have their work cut out. They face problems ranging from rank incredulity on the one hand to the passive disinterest of people who feel they are too few to make any impact. The upshot is that many feel they will not be missed if they don’t vote. This feeling of resignation could have far reaching consequences.

The Christian community in India is so small as to seem irrelevant. At 25 million people, it accounts for only 2.3 per cent of the national population, or one fifth of India’s largest and politically powerful Muslim minority community. While there might be more Christians than Sikhs, the Sikh community is concentrated in Punjab from where they control the state legislature and government, and can have their voice heard decisively in the country’s parliament.

In contrast, the states where Christians are a substantial proportion of the population – Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Goa and Kerala -- are themselves politically miniscule, with a total of less than 30 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. Uttar Pradesh alone, for example, has 80 seats.

Historically, the Christian community, with some individuals as exceptions, has been considered close to the Indian National Congress. It was loyal to Mahatma Gandhi and to Jawaharlal Nehru, the first prime minister of the country. And over the decades it has to an extent remained loyal to Indira Gandhi and her Nehru-Gandhi clan, which controls the ruling Congress Party, though no one of the clan holds any ministerial position at present.

The opposition parties, especially the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, have jeered at Congress Party president Sonia Gandhi for her Italian Catholic origins, but the Christian community itself has derived no advantage from this connection.

There have been no Christian chief ministers of any major state in the past, other than of the tiny three in the north east, and Goa and Kerala on the west coast. In other areas, disempowerment of Tribal Christians continues to be a sad fact of life, and Dalit Christians in particular feel betrayed by the Congress-ruled federal government.

There is a deep seated feeling that development funds for religious minorities have been sluiced to the Muslim community, deemed to be a “vote bank” of Congress and Samajwadi political parties, at the cost of the silent Christians. This by itself failed to arouse the community for years.

The turning point, one feels, was the anti-Christian violence in Kandhamal in Orissa state in 2007 and 2008. The sheer magnitude of the violence shocked the community and its religious and secular leadership out of their torpor.

There had been more than 20,000 “communal” riots, or religion-based acts of mass violence, since 1947, but the victims in almost all of them were Muslims. The Sikh community was the victim of mass violence in 1984 following the assassination of prime minister Indira Gandhi by her Sikh bodyguards.

Though there had been thousands of sporadic and isolated acts of violence against pastors, priests and nuns, there had been just one case of mass violence, and that in Tamil Nadu. Kandhamal suddenly made the Christian community aware of its vulnerability.

The lack of an adequate and comforting response from civil society and political parties also made it clear to the Christians that they really had no political voice, and had to find one.

It is impossible for the Christian community to become politically viable on its own strength. But many in the community have come to realize that they can be a force-multiplier if they act in concert, and perhaps in alliance, with other like-minded groups.

The cementing factor is the common concern against the rise in religious fundamentalism triggered by the right wing Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh and its political wing, the Bharatiya Janata Party. It rules in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Punjab [in a coalition with the Akali Dal of the Sikhs].

The recent emergence of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, widely presumed to have encouraged a veritable genocide of Muslims in 2002 in his state, as a prime ministerial candidate in 2014 has brought a rare sense of urgency.

Christian leaders realize that with Muslims and other “secular” entities, they can make a difference in perhaps as many as 140 parliament constituencies, which could be decisive when it comes to the formation of a future coalition government.

The Muslim community is known for its “strategic voting” which maximizes its presence by giving a winning edge to select candidates who have the best chance of defeating anyone seen as being communal or sectarian.

The call now is for the Christian community to adopt and join this concept of strategic voting, and help the electoral prospects of candidates – and they can be of any of the political parties – who have the best potential of defeating candidates with a known communal bias or track record of hostility towards religious minorities. It is not an easy task to educate a Christian community scattered widely across the country, split into denominations, cultural rites and scores of language and cultural groups.

The time is short, the resources very limited, and the experience extremely little for extensive political mobilization at the grassroots. But the collective adrenalin is pumping high, as early reports come in of a swing of the young and the middle class towards Narendra Modi, with his known animosity towards religious minorities.

Perhaps nothing may come out of this exercise in a worse case scenario. But the newly acquired political awareness will be useful in the future building of a community that is aware and proud of its identity and knows how to assert its rights for development and security equity under the constitution.

John Dayal is the general secretary of the All India Christian Council and a member of the Indian government’s National Integration Council


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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 01 Nov 2013 07:36

http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/ ... mohan.html

CONGRESS, RJD alliance

Though the Congress has not yet taken any decision on its alliance in Bihar, it appears to be moving closer to the RJD. Except Ashok Choudhary, president of the Bihar Congress, more than half-a-dozen State leaders have written to Sonia Gandhi and emphasised the need to go into alliance with the RJD and the LJP. Even the general secretary of the party, Shakeel Ahmed, is believed to be in favour of this alliance.

Congress Legislative Party leader Sadananad Singh and former minister Awadhesh Singh have mentioned in their letters that the RJD-LJP-Congress alliance in 2004 had won 30 seats and it is only this alliance that can stop Narendra Modi from winning the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. {Paging fanne ji, can this happen again. I am a little concerned about Bihar and very concerned about UP. Alliance with lalu-paswan in bihar and with maya in UP, can put bjp in a real corner. In Bihar if nitish is stripped of his base, that can help bjp romp home}

The leaders of the Bihar Congress also had a word with other central leaders like Jairam Ramesh, Sachin Pilot and Shakeel Ahmed, who were in Patna recently to participate in a function. In Delhi, senior leaders like Digvijay Singh and Kapil Sibal have declared Lalu Prasad Yadav as the Congress’s natural ally. The answer, however, lies with Rahul Gandhi, who will take the final decision in consultation with the party’s Bihar in-charge, CP Joshi.

The Eastern challenge

Congress leaders are trying to rejuvenate the party in Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Assam and six other northeastern States. Under a well-planned strategy, seat arrangements have been finalised in Jharkhand with the JMM. Likewise, the Congress has started to recover the losses it had faced when Mamata Banerjee left the alliance in West Bengal; it is taking some of its old leaders back into the party. Probably, Somen Mitra and his wife will make a comeback after Diwali. The Congress hopes that it would be able to save some of its seats with this strategy.

In Odisha, the party has started a campaign to showcase the relief work done by Central agencies during the recent cyclone. It is vigorously publicising that the UPA Government has done more work in comparison to the State Government and administration. In Assam, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is playing an emotional game of retirement and has stated that he will leave politics soon. Apart from this, he has met AIUDF leader Badruddin Ajmal.

So all in all congress has a game plan as i suspected. In UP ally with maya, bihar ally with lalu, gain in jharkhand and orissa and WB.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 01 Nov 2013 08:07

muraliravi wrote:In Assam, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is playing an emotional game of retirement and has stated that he will leave politics soon. Apart from this, he has met AIUDF leader Badruddin Ajmal.

So all in all congress has a game plan as i suspected. In UP ally with maya, bihar ally with lalu, gain in jharkhand and orissa and WB.


I cannot talk about the other states, but in Assam, if Tarun Gogoi allies with the AUDF, it means that he is giving up on the Hindu vote. AUDF is the party of Bangladeshi Muslims. Also, Tarun Gogoi and Badruddin Ajmal have a long and troubled history - it is hard to believe they can just work together. If Gogoi is talking with Ajmal, it is likely due to the pressure from on high. This is a golden opportunity for the BJP. AGP is on its death bed. The BJP should absorb what remains of the AGP and strike up a deal with one of the Bodo parties (either Bwiswamuthiary or U G Brahma). No Bodo, particularly after the recent riots, is going to vote the Congress, or a Congress ally. It is vital to ensure that the Bodos do not cut into the Hindu votes in Mangaldoi, Gauhati and Barpeta. The BJP should offer Kokrajhar and maybe even Barpeta to the Bodo parties to unite the Hindu votebank. But the BJP (thanks to the stupidity of the high command) has been weakened somewhat in the Barak valley. So, all in all, Tarun Gogoi allying with AUDF means that they are going to cause a counter polarisation, against them. It is for the BJP to rise to the challenge. The news of a Congress-AUDF alliance, from the BJP point of view, is not at all negative. The BJP, if it accomplishes what I have suggested, can still win about 8 seats in Assam, and ensure the victory of its Bodo ally in Kokrajhar, and Barpeta.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Santosh » 01 Nov 2013 08:55

muraliravi wrote:http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/gupshup/cbi-gets-ready-to-quiz-manmohan.html
CONGRESS, RJD alliance

Okay, so this is more and more looking like a 2004 redux aka sampradayik forces colluding together to keep secular forces out. Many of us had predicted that such will be the situation in UP and Bihar and BJP should be prepared for it. In Bihar Congi+RJD combine is trying to stop Yadav dis-illusionment and exodus to BJP due to Lalu and neighboring Mulla both being in gutter situation. Consolidation of Yadav+Muslim vote bank would be about 11%+15% which is Lalu's traditional vote bank. Nitish will join Congi post poll since to remain relevant otherwise he will be wiped out. He will bring 4% Kurmi + residual vote from communities like businesses which have done better due to improvement in law n order, infra etc. NaMo needs to bring about total consolidation of remaining Hindu groups including forward, backward and scst to take Bihar. Tough order. The only silver lining I can see would be Nikamma not going for pre-poll alliance with Congi. That would split pseudo-secular votes. Still a tough order. Fanne ji?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby M Joshi » 01 Nov 2013 10:01

muraliravi wrote:http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/gupshup/cbi-gets-ready-to-quiz-manmohan.html

CONGRESS, RJD alliance

So all in all congress has a game plan as i suspected. In UP ally with maya, bihar ally with lalu, gain in jharkhand and orissa and WB.


My spidie sense tells me that Congis will let Lalu be released from jail before elections and hail him as a hero of bihar. The foolish janta will most probably fall for this trap based on past electorate experiences. That is Congi's best hope in Bihar, better than an alliance with nikumma.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby niran » 01 Nov 2013 10:16

but, is not a NaMo wave going on in UP Bihar?
as tidal wave crushes and sweep anything and everything in its path
will not this wave crush everything? I have ears in 78 ls constituencies
68 in UP 10 in Bihar the noises are music to me
onree Deoria sadar the seat for now dead Mohan Singh is doubtful and remember deempile yadav last time not only lost she came in distant fifth moolayam won onree by a whisker then there was no wave,so in a no wave
situation that was sapa showing then what would be when there is a wave?!?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Malayappan » 01 Nov 2013 10:29

nageshks wrote: The BJP, if it accomplishes what I have suggested, can still win about 8 seats in Assam, and ensure the victory of its Bodo ally in Kokrajhar, and Barpeta.

+1
1. Appropriation of AGP vote bank
2. Consolidation of Bengali Hindu vote base
3. Alliance with Bodos

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby apoorv » 01 Nov 2013 15:59

Talked to some government employees close to ministries. They said congress is having a slight edge in Rajasthan as BJP is facing a lot of infighting and also tickets are sold in BJP. RSS still does not back Vasundhara Raje fully and she is herself trying to defeat some BJP leaders like Ghanshyam Tiwari, Narpat Singh Rajvi etc. Even Gulab Chand Kataria is not fully convinced and happy.

Also, Kirori Lal Meena who left BJP due to fued with Vasundhara will play a spoilsport and if his support is required for any party to form government he is more likely to support congress.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby fanne » 01 Nov 2013 18:20

Niran bhai why 68 only in UP why 12 missing, 10 in Bihar, are they adjoining area to UP?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 01 Nov 2013 18:22

Opinion polls should not make bjp complacent. Candidate selection is very very very critical and many bjp mla s are having very bad name in public in mp, cgarh, and even in Delhi. They all needed to be dropped.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sushupti » 01 Nov 2013 19:44

Treasure Chest
What Chhattisgarh’s political factions are fighting for


The Maoist conflict and the mining juggernaut dominate the national view of the state, but in the assembly polls in November, both will actually be cast in minor roles, geographically limited as they are to the forests and hills in the north and south. The real political theatre is playing out in the central plains—over caste, community, candidates, the inner intrigues of political parties and their public campaigns focused on governance. On that last count, the ruling BJP, with its umbrella of welfare schemes, has an edge.


- http://caravanmagazine.in/perspectives/ ... c9TUF.dpuf

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Supratik » 01 Nov 2013 19:58

nageshks wrote:
I cannot talk about the other states, but in Assam, if Tarun Gogoi allies with the AUDF, it means that he is giving up on the Hindu vote. AUDF is the party of Bangladeshi Muslims. Also, Tarun Gogoi and Badruddin Ajmal have a long and troubled history - it is hard to believe they can just work together. If Gogoi is talking with Ajmal, it is likely due to the pressure from on high. This is a golden opportunity for the BJP. AGP is on its death bed. The BJP should absorb what remains of the AGP and strike up a deal with one of the Bodo parties (either Bwiswamuthiary or U G Brahma). No Bodo, particularly after the recent riots, is going to vote the Congress, or a Congress ally. It is vital to ensure that the Bodos do not cut into the Hindu votes in Mangaldoi, Gauhati and Barpeta. The BJP should offer Kokrajhar and maybe even Barpeta to the Bodo parties to unite the Hindu votebank. But the BJP (thanks to the stupidity of the high command) has been weakened somewhat in the Barak valley. So, all in all, Tarun Gogoi allying with AUDF means that they are going to cause a counter polarisation, against them. It is for the BJP to rise to the challenge. The news of a Congress-AUDF alliance, from the BJP point of view, is not at all negative. The BJP, if it accomplishes what I have suggested, can still win about 8 seats in Assam, and ensure the victory of its Bodo ally in Kokrajhar, and Barpeta.


I don't think INC is going to ally with the AUDF. For the simple reason that it is playing a mischievous game in Assam. It is fooling the people by anti-illegal posturing but pushing more illegals specially in non-Assamese tribal areas. The BJP should cut a deal with Bodos and promise to expand the BATC area in exchange for support if Bodoland is not outright possible. It should also cut a deal with the Koch-Rajbonshis and promise them tribal status and Kamtapur autonomous region in exchange for support. That will take care of the two biggest non-Assamese tribal groups. Lastly, it should expose the game of the INC. NM rallies in Assam is necessary.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby subhamoy.das » 01 Nov 2013 20:27

Some folks are casting doubt about the survey results. What are the local news papers saying? Can we correlate if local news papers are also predicting the same? So far there seems to be a uniform view of BJP having a 4 - 0 win in the state contest and 200+ in national content. Any reason to doubt that when the predications of multiple agencies are in line? A cooked up survey can hurt congress equally well as this could lead to a BJP polarisation

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 01 Nov 2013 20:35

subhamoy.das wrote:Some folks are casting doubt about the survey results. What are the local news papers saying? Can we correlate if local news papers are also predicting the same? So far there seems to be a uniform view of BJP having a 4 - 0 win in the state contest and 200+ in national content. Any reason to doubt that when the predications of multiple agencies are in line? A cooked up survey can hurt congress equally well as this could lead to a BJP polarisation


Well, for one this is the 1st set of surveys that is giving BJP such a huge victory margin in Chattisgarh. I am really not sure what is causing a 6% vote swing from congress to BJP this time to give them such a massive victory. 2 months back all these channels were predicting a close contest in which BJP will just scrape through. What has happened in these 2 months? I dont believe Modi being declared as PM candidate has had any impact in Chattisgarh Assembly elections and even if it did, 6% swing is way too much.

Either the survey is correct and all the surveys 2 months ago including the same survey 2 months back were wrong (deliberately wrong) and the 6% gain was obtained over the last 5 years

or

this survey is wrong

or

something dramatic has happened in the last 2 months in chattisgarh about which we have no information.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby subhamoy.das » 01 Nov 2013 20:49

I would say that we need to look at the survey to detect the mood of the electorate. As the days of the poll nears the mood becomes a reality check. If the mood continues its upward swing for BJP then there will surely be big gains. I was looking opinion poll results done in April 2004 and they were clearly bringing our warning signs for the NDA. So far the mood is showing a continuous improvement for BJP and so the election , which is so close, will also reflect the mood, IMO. Let us wait for another 4 weeks and we can all check back. What has happened in last 2 months is that NAMO has started to have mega rallies!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby fanne » 01 Nov 2013 20:53

or it is a close contest and this is a feeble attempt by turdesai to make BJP complacent. I acn't put is past them.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 01 Nov 2013 20:55

fanne wrote:or it is a close contest and this is a feeble attempt by turdesai to make BJP complacent. I acn't put is past them.


I agree, i think these surveys were intended to make BJP complacent (but that is not their main goal as BJP gets its own surveys), I think the main goal is to make the BJP voter sit at home assuming that BJP will anyway win and in Delhi show as if AAP is a serious player for BJP voters to waste their vote on khujliwal and in the process help congress.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vikas » 01 Nov 2013 22:15

How many people actually form their opinion based upon these surverys. I cant even remember after few minutes who was leading or losing in the survey. Even if they show congress winning zero or 100% seats, I will still go out and vote against them to give vent to my ire and frustration against this govt. I doubt if Surveys can swing any vote or seat results.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby fanne » 01 Nov 2013 22:33

In multi cornered contest (as in UP), if they want to kick off the incumbent, everyone wants to vote for the leading apposition. The 'biggest' opposition wins here. I doubt there also a survey can alter much as people know which way the hawa is.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 01 Nov 2013 23:24

fanne and muraliravi, When these survey results are released do they alo release the questions or just some top line percentages?

If they have multiple questions then one can have some insight into the minds.

The PP guy has only one question and it is a plain yes or no.
No insight into why its yes or no.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby fanne » 01 Nov 2013 23:31

Well multiple questions also do not help, Who is better PM among Modi and RG. Some may say Modi but vote Con or some turd front and vice verse. Moreover, even for people saying yes to Modi and yes to BJP may change their vote at the time of candidate selection or may not vote at all. I have yet to see a voting questionaire that is comprehensive and asks, will you vote, did you vote in last 3 elections, will you change your vote depending on candidates. Bottom line, these are rough measures, or indicators or vectors of which way things are going. The best is comparison from period to period if the underlying data and methodology is same. It gives the pure trend (but not the absolute number). There is no survey that tells that absolute thing.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 01 Nov 2013 23:37

No those are Page 3 questions. If one asks another question which reveals the mind it could help. For example gender or socio-economic status questions.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby fanne » 01 Nov 2013 23:40

Caste, gender and Income are part of almost all questionnaire and they give that breakdown.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 01 Nov 2013 23:43

ramana wrote:No those are Page 3 questions. If one asks another question which reveals the mind it could help. For example gender or socio-economic status questions.


Please see this report to see kind of questions asked: http://peoplespulse.in/pdf/surveys/Raja ... Report.pdf

Quite detailed, I am not sure if every survey is like this. But this lastest CSDS-IBN survey does seem to have quite a number of relevant questions.


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