Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[Shanmukh]

The very fact that the gang is BSR_Congress and not BSR Janata party or something like that clearly shows who their real masters are/were. BSR congress is congress mole at the end of the day. BJP can grow/regain inspite of BSR not being inside. Yes, they have to put in more efforts but certainly doable. Actually its a benefit to bjp as BSR gang puts off lot of other people in state. But will sushma allow this?? If yeddyurappa is brought in, she will fight for her "sons" also.

Thing is - Sreeramulu is seen as an ST leader in large areas of central Karnataka. When the BJP won, it was winning on the back of the STs rooting for it, and the mobilisation of the STs in favour of the BJP was done to a large extent by Sreeramulu. The Valmikis (who constitute a large part of the STs) are all polarised behind Sreeramulu. The BJP needs another strong Valmiki leader to break the Sreeramulu vote bank. The only Valmiki leader of any significance in BJP is M S Somalingappa, but his influence is limited to Siraguppa (and he is not exactly inspirational, and he lost the recent assembly elections). The question is whether Somalingappa can break the Valmiki votebank to an extent that he can influence the elections in central Karnataka. I am not certain that he can. However, if Yeddy returns, the Lingayat votebank (the other significant factor here) should be back to BJP. How useful it will be remains to be seen.

[gunjur]

The very fact that the gang is BSR_Congress and not BSR Janata party or something like that clearly shows who their real masters are/were. BSR congress is congress mole at the end of the day. BJP can grow/regain inspite of BSR not being inside. Yes, they have to put in more efforts but certainly doable. Actually its a benefit to bjp as BSR gang puts off lot of other people in state. But will sushma allow this?? If yeddyurappa is brought in, she will fight for her "sons" also.

Thing is - Sreeramulu is seen as an ST leader in large areas of central Karnataka. When the BJP won, it was winning on the back of the STs rooting for it, and the mobilisation of the STs in favour of the BJP was done to a large extent by Sreeramulu. The Valmikis (who constitute a large part of the STs) are all polarised behind Sreeramulu. The BJP needs another strong Valmiki leader to break the Sreeramulu vote bank. The only Valmiki leader of any significance in BJP is M S Somalingappa, but his influence is limited to Siraguppa (and he is not exactly inspirational, and he lost the recent assembly elections). The question is whether Somalingappa can break the Valmiki votebank to an extent that he can influence the elections in central Karnataka. I am not certain that he can. However, if Yeddy returns, the Lingayat votebank (the other significant factor here) should be back to BJP. How useful it will be remains to be seen.

The few bharat gellisi posters which i saw were in siraguppa area only. WRT nayaka votes behind sriramulu, actually this guy was propped up post 2008 using huge money under their disposal. How popular was he in 2005?? If push comes to shove, they will throw bjp away without batting an eyelid. They are least bothered about bjp or ideology etc, the prime example being their outfit is called bsr congress. It should also be remembered that all these areas including bellari are places where veerashaivas are also in big numbers. The general mood towards bjp helped which these folks portrayed as if it was their work which got the seats by throwing money around. Bjp can bring up a new guy. Yes, it can not be done in short time. But given the current situation, bjp karnataka has itself to pull up which again is not a short term job. Bjp should come up with a new leadership. Also ensure that all elder leaders are gracefully retired with due respect.

[Virendra]

Rajasthan is the best placed state as per BJP walas too and MP is the closest of all. Largely on account of the anti-incumbency faced by MLAs and Ministers who were put in place to decimate Uma Bharti in the first place! SSC is hard pressed to eject them in favour of winnable candidates. Moreover SS being an MP from that state she chooses to assert her role there too.

Rajasthan is a far closer fight than perceived. Gehlot's image hasn't taken a huge beating.
His freebie distribution programs have been going on in full swing for quite some time now. He has been boasting of Refinery and Metro over here.
And as much as I hate to admit it, there would be the usual caste dynamics in play.
One thing that I heard from people in one to one conversation at my paternal village barely few days back, is that people who're thinking of BJP are actually thinking of Modi .. not Vasundhara or anyone/anything else.
This I believe is a smart move. Because it means that they're thinking about aligning the State Govt. with the Centre Govt. (ruling partywise)
Which in turn implies what? Well you know that
Jats and Gurjars are the two communities bargaining very hard with both Congress and BJP. I don't know what Meenas and others are up to this time. Haven't seen a big build up in Meenas this time.
The key are Jats and Gurjars.

OT: Me, SHQ and parents would be going over to my paternal village to cast our votes on Dec 1st (Sunday). A mini en-masse voting
From Noida it would be a total 800 kms round trip for me, but fully worth it

[Muppalla]

MP is threatening to go the HP way where the CM started off well in popularity ratings and then fell off the high horse once pitted against a decent rival. This state needs to be guarded. And finally round after round of surveys are showing a differentiated voting trend by electorate for the LS and VS elections therefore no need to treat this as a vote for or against Modi, DDM desperately wants to do that.

These are last minute blues. BJP will probably prevail. Could anyone put latest survey on MP.

Added later:

Shri Narendra Modi to address four campaign rallies of BJP in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh on Monday at Chhatarpur, Sagar, Guna and Bhopal.

[Muppalla]

must read analysis though coming from a congress ideologue:

http://exitopinionpollsindia.blogspot.c ... is-of.html

Here is where the INC+BSP as potential brahmastra against Modi can come.

[sooraj]

Rahul forced to cut short speech at Delhi election meeting as people leave
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/asse ... 959271.cms

[Hari Seldon]

must read analysis though coming from a congress ideologue:

http://exitopinionpollsindia.blogspot.c ... is-of.html

Here is where the INC+BSP as potential brahmastra against Modi can come.

Scary... and I see no reason why that tie-up won't happen... A BSP-INC alliance is practically unbeatable in the hindi heartland (including in UP) everywhere except in the hill states and Bihar.

[Shanmukh]

The few bharat gellisi posters which i saw were in siraguppa area only. WRT nayaka votes behind sriramulu, actually this guy was propped up post 2008 using huge money under their disposal. How popular was he in 2005?? If push comes to shove, they will throw bjp away without batting an eyelid. They are least bothered about bjp or ideology etc, the prime example being their outfit is called bsr congress. It should also be remembered that all these areas including bellari are places where veerashaivas are also in big numbers. The general mood towards bjp helped which these folks portrayed as if it was their work which got the seats by throwing money around. Bjp can bring up a new guy. Yes, it can not be done in short time. But given the current situation, bjp karnataka has itself to pull up which again is not a short term job. Bjp should come up with a new leadership. Also ensure that all elder leaders are gracefully retired with due respect.

Gunjur-avare,
What you have said about Sreeramulu is true. He became famous in the aftermath of 2008. But in reality, the mobilisation of the STs of central Karnataka under Sreeramulu had begun much earlier, maybe around 2001-2002. The BJP had become dependent on the Reddy money bags even in the 2004 elections (which is truly a pity). The 2004 victory of the BJP (Gali Karunakara Reddy) in Bellary (up until then, a Congress stronghold) owed to a large degree to the STs and the Veerashaivas backing the BJP. Of course, this was further upgraded by Karunakara Reddy, who allowed the people to take vehicles from his showrooms without a downpayment (but then, he is quite capable of getting people to pay him what they owe). The STs were mobilised under Sreeramulu, and the Veerashaivas followed Yeddy. The BJP, as an organisation has never existed there at all. The few leaders who are left are people like Anand Singh (another money bag in the Hospet region) or old time leaders like M S Somalingappa in Siraguppa. Somalingappa can probably do the trick for the BJP (he is relatively young - in his 50s), but he cannot contend against the money bags of the Reddies or Sreeramulu. The return of Yeddy, and mobilisation of the Lingayat anger against Siddaramaiah may work (remains to be seen). But the BJP needs both STs and Veerashaivas to back it (or if one of the two communities do not back it, it needs the OBCs or SCs). The OBCs and SCs of central Karnataka are all currently with the Congress. I am not sure what effect the appearance of Modi, himself an OBC being the BJP PM candidate will do. But the fact remains that the BJP has no organisation there capable of grabbing the attention of the OBCs at the local level. This is what the BJP failed to do (they depended too much on the Reddy-Sreeramulu organisation). Hopefully, they have learnt their lessons, and will build up their base.

[VikramS]

must read analysis though coming from a congress ideologue:

http://exitopinionpollsindia.blogspot.c ... is-of.html

Here is where the INC+BSP as potential brahmastra against Modi can come.

This Rajan Alexandar is one of the NGO EJ types. It is amazing how many such people are on the payroll of the church and active in India.

[Shanmukh]

Some interesting news regarding the BJP in Tamil Nadu. Have they really made any progress in the coastal areas and among fishermen?

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... ttarget=no

[niran]

SSC has sent in a maanhani legal notice worth 10+2 keyroar INR to sonia ghandhi and kantilala bhuria for taking out an advert calling SSC a corrupt.

[bhargava]

Looks like Nandan Nilekani is going to stand from Bengalooru South, after all.

After heading UIDAI for the last five years, Nilekani is preparing to leap into politics as the Congress party's candidate from Bangalore South in the 2014 elections. At the core of his campaign is a hi-tech "back office" which is already in place although the official announcement of his candidature is yet to come.

Source: For 2014 polls, parties net techies as 'backroom boys'

[Virendra]

Rahul forced to cut short speech at Delhi election meeting as people leave
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/asse ... 959271.cms

Excerpts:
For starters, the organizers had failed to get a wholesome crowd in Dakshinpuri, which is regarded to be a party stronghold. On top of that, Rahul didn't help matters by reaching three hours behind schedule, ostensibly because he didn't want coverage of the rally to clash with the publicity of a party press conference.
...
...
Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit appealed to the crowd to stay put and listen to Rahul but that didn't stem the thinning.
Sunday's disappointing show could be a cause of concern for Congress as its hopes of retaining power in Dakshinpuri are based on the calculation that the poor and migrants, who constitute the majority in the constituency, will continue to stand by the party.
...
...
Rahul opened his speech by calling Delhi a city of migrants. "Delhi is a like a mini-India where people come from all over."
[The same guy then goes on to say this]
The people of Delhi are very sharp and do not respond to borrowed players from outside the capital.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Regards,
Virendra

[gunjur]

The few bharat gellisi posters which i saw were in siraguppa area only. WRT nayaka votes behind sriramulu, actually this guy was propped up post 2008 using huge money under their disposal. How popular was he in 2005?? If push comes to shove, they will throw bjp away without batting an eyelid. They are least bothered about bjp or ideology etc, the prime example being their outfit is called bsr congress. It should also be remembered that all these areas including bellari are places where veerashaivas are also in big numbers. The general mood towards bjp helped which these folks portrayed as if it was their work which got the seats by throwing money around. Bjp can bring up a new guy. Yes, it can not be done in short time. But given the current situation, bjp karnataka has itself to pull up which again is not a short term job. Bjp should come up with a new leadership. Also ensure that all elder leaders are gracefully retired with due respect.

Gunjur-avare,
What you have said about Sreeramulu is true. He became famous in the aftermath of 2008. But in reality, the mobilisation of the STs of central Karnataka under Sreeramulu had begun much earlier, maybe around 2001-2002. The BJP had become dependent on the Reddy money bags even in the 2004 elections (which is truly a pity). The 2004 victory of the BJP (Gali Karunakara Reddy) in Bellary (up until then, a Congress stronghold) owed to a large degree to the STs and the Veerashaivas backing the BJP. Of course, this was further upgraded by Karunakara Reddy, who allowed the people to take vehicles from his showrooms without a downpayment (but then, he is quite capable of getting people to pay him what they owe). The STs were mobilised under Sreeramulu, and the Veerashaivas followed Yeddy. The BJP, as an organisation has never existed there at all. The few leaders who are left are people like Anand Singh (another money bag in the Hospet region) or old time leaders like M S Somalingappa in Siraguppa. Somalingappa can probably do the trick for the BJP (he is relatively young - in his 50s), but he cannot contend against the money bags of the Reddies or Sreeramulu. The return of Yeddy, and mobilisation of the Lingayat anger against Siddaramaiah may work (remains to be seen). But the BJP needs both STs and Veerashaivas to back it (or if one of the two communities do not back it, it needs the OBCs or SCs). The OBCs and SCs of central Karnataka are all currently with the Congress. I am not sure what effect the appearance of Modi, himself an OBC being the BJP PM candidate will do. But the fact remains that the BJP has no organisation there capable of grabbing the attention of the OBCs at the local level. This is what the BJP failed to do (they depended too much on the Reddy-Sreeramulu organisation). Hopefully, they have learnt their lessons, and will build up their base.

Nagesh avre
Yes, it remains to be seen if bjp can regain its mojo back. But just to add to your points, wrt to lotus even being recognised esp in bellary, that effort goes to MP Prakash, the local janata dal strongman from bellary. When sushma contested against sonia, it was he who toured entire district asking votes for bjp. If rumours are to be believed then, it seems in many villages people asked him when did chakra(janata dal symbol) become lotus(bjp symbol). Only then these people(karunakar et al) took over. In 2008, karunakar reddy even defeated MP Prakash. Anyways all these are history now.

[niran]

In a desperate attempt of modi bad RG kood congress have lodged a complaint
with EC WRT NaMo utterance
mama and sik Sonia, wipe off that silly grin!! or else yem teawaari will personally do that.

[gunjur]

http://namovsraga.com/

[M Joshi]

Place ads that apologise, or I will sue: Shivraj Singh Chouhan to Sonia Gandhi

Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, has sent a defamation notice to Congress president Sonia Gandhi.

Mr Chouhan, who is asking voters for a third straight term, has threatened to sue Mrs Gandhi for Rs. 10 crore if her party fails to retract charges of corruption against his family.

Last week, the Congress ran ads in local newspapers that suggested Mr Chouhan's in-laws have landed important government contracts.

Mr Chouhan has said that unless the Congress places new ads that apologise for that allegation, he will file a defamation lawsuit against the party's top leader.

Unimaginable things are happening to the dynasty. People don't want to listen to Raul's speeches. Madam is getting lawsuits slapped on her face, secular truck drivers are abusing them openly on road, many past sickulars are slowly turning communal. Bad time to be a Nehru-Gandhi.

[Hari Seldon]

Looks like Nandan Nilekani is going to stand from Bengalooru South, after all.

After heading UIDAI for the last five years, Nilekani is preparing to leap into politics as the Congress party's candidate from Bangalore South in the 2014 elections. At the core of his campaign is a hi-tech "back office" which is already in place although the official announcement of his candidature is yet to come.

Source: For 2014 polls, parties net techies as 'backroom boys'

Have mixed feelings about this. Loss of a good, solid seat... but it may well be worth it if anant kr is cut down to size and further denied an RS ticket... ejected from the parliamentary board etc. His patron Sushmaben may suffer a similar fate if the party decides against supporting her whole heartedly in her MP seat wherever...

[bhargava]

^^ Don't want to sound too optimistic and all that, but don't we need to wait for BhaJaPa's move before doing or

[anchal]

One thing going against INC BSP alliance is maya's fear about massive mobilization of strong obc castes in favor of bjp. We must remember in hindi heartland sc people are more in conflict with strong bc sections than fc. Another thing is muslims may have to abandon cozy relantioship with yadavs. Everyone is waiting for assembly results

[RajeshA]

Looks like Nandan Nilekani is going to stand from Bengalooru South, after all.
Source: For 2014 polls, parties net techies as 'backroom boys'

After heading UIDAI for the last five years, Nilekani is preparing to leap into politics as the Congress party's candidate from Bangalore South in the 2014 elections. At the core of his campaign is a hi-tech "back office" which is already in place although the official announcement of his candidature is yet to come.

Have mixed feelings about this. Loss of a good, solid seat... but it may well be worth it if anant kr is cut down to size and further denied an RS ticket... ejected from the parliamentary board etc. His patron Sushmaben may suffer a similar fate if the party decides against supporting her whole heartedly in her MP seat wherever...

It's better to send Sushma Swaraj to Rajya Sabha. She doesn't want to work under Narendra Modi anyway in Lok Sabha, as I've understood from some reports. And then to deny her leadership of BJP Rajya Sabha but give it to someone else. Make her a common Rajya Sabha MP. This means she would not be on the Parliamentary Board anymore.

Ananth Kumar for all his shortcomings is at least an organization man, and in South Bangalore has his personal following. He should win. Sushma Swaraj is just Dilli-Billi and needs Shivraj Singh Chauhan's support to win her own seat. So she should be pushed upstairs.

Anyway Parliamentary Board should rather have all the BJP CMs, current and former PMs, current and former Home Ministers, current leaders of BJP in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, current and previous BJP President, and two RSS appointees.

Too man past Presidents of the party in the Parliamentary Board - Nitin Gadkari, Ananth Kumar, etc. They need not be there.

The downside would be that Parliamentary Board would not have any power to change CMs and thus Keshubhai Patels would not be replaced by Narendra Modis.

[munna]

MP is threatening to go the HP way where the CM started off well in popularity ratings and then fell off the high horse once pitted against a decent rival. This state needs to be guarded. And finally round after round of surveys are showing a differentiated voting trend by electorate for the LS and VS elections therefore no need to treat this as a vote for or against Modi, DDM desperately wants to do that.

These are last minute blues. BJP will probably prevail. Could anyone put latest survey on MP.

Added later:

Shri Narendra Modi to address four campaign rallies of BJP in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh on Monday at Chhatarpur, Sagar, Guna and Bhopal.

Good work to get some CAS from Namo-MKI. BJP can prevail in all the states if everything goes right, heck even Delhi electorate may show up a decisive swing. The issue is to guard against complacency and be aware that local issues and factors do tend to influence voting in a big way even under mega wave conditions. So stay steady and win more is the slogan.

[Saral]

Just heard about this group and donated 30 bucks (this will translate into 100 registrations).

The website is http://www.overseasvbi.org/pledge.html

From a newsletter:

The system knows the power of the eighteen year old vote. There are potentially 150 million new young voters in India. Add to that another 150 million from the urban and semi-urban set up. In the 2009 elections the winning party polled 119.2 million votes, that is just over 16.6% of the eligible voter share. That means there is practically one new voter for every vote the winning party received in the last election. Add to this a whopping 300 million who did not vote last time, and we would have had a whole new ball game and a whole new politics.

To this effect, a nationwide initiative has been launched with an aim to to register new voters. Every day volunteers from across the country are registering ten's of thousands of voters. This is one of the largest nation building exercise in modern times, with an estimated 1.2 million volunteers participating. The Volunteer for a better India (VBI) movement is divided into three phases; Phase 1, voter registration & deletion;
Phase 2, Voter awareness;
Phase 3, Voter turnout.

The voter registration phase is the critical part of the campaign, with the aim to register 30 million fresh voters and reduce bogus voters.

You can elect the next government of India - you can create a responsive base of power in your community - you can establish an alternative that would be a major force in this country - only if help us in registering people to vote! For a small pledge of $30, we can register 100 voters. You can also help by making a phone call to your friend or loved one in India, urging them to register for voting. Take responsibility and make a difference, the time is act is now!


Mahatma Gandhi famously said: "'Be the change that you wish to see in the world." It is this thought that drives an international movement like OVBI, where each individual is an inspiration. And thus begins our new column "The Shining Star," a piece that places the spotlight on individuals, famous and otherwise, who have spearheaded change in their own unique way.

This week, "Shining Star" introduces Sriram Iyer, our resident volunteer who has worked tirelessly to help build the India of his dreams. Under siege from all the shades that color the NRI life - late work hours, fun commute, laundry, dishes - Sriram is a volunteer success story.

For two weeks, Sriram swore to become a phone whiz, dialing during every free minute of his day to get voters registered. When his two-week personal deadline came around, Sriram had called 497 persons to register to vote, and, in fact, registered 164 individuals himself. He didn't just stop there. Hearing about the now famous Kiran Bedi OVBI hangout, he proceeded to make
arrangements to project this e-meet at a Diwali Mela booth at Atlanta, Georgia. The step drew hundreds of inquiries and funds across Atlanta and, in no time, the one man army found himself at the center of the change that he hoped to engineer.

Indeed, one person is all it takes to make a difference. And here's raising our Diwali lights to volunteers like Sriram who have given their time and energy toward the new India.

- VBI has signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Chief Election Officer, Andhra Pradesh office. The office now recognizes VBI as partner organization. With the MoU VBI volunteers can now approach educational institutions, gated communities, public places and corporate offices for voter drives. The MoU would also allow VBI volunteers to work with city and district administration for verification of voters, to ensure only eligible voters are added to the list.

- Thanks to the efforts of the Bay Area team both Vinod Khosla & Vivek Wadhwa have come on board to support the OVBI campaigns. Series of promos featuring these acclaimed persona's will be aired in the coming weeks.

- Meet Devesh Sharma a resident of Mumbai. Devesh is a visually impaired. Devesh, was inspired by the voter registration movement, and he decided he wanted contribute in whatever way he could for his country. He took leadership under the 'I Vote for a Better India' Campaign. Walking door-to-door to register new voters, educating people on importance of voting he has personally registered 25 new voters in his neighborhood. OVBI salutes Devesh and hundred's like him who are making our country proud.

- Voter registration application (app) is underway. Designed to cover all three phases of voter registration, voter education and voter engagement, the app gives the users the experience and convenience of online voter registration with least headache.

- The OVBI team of 10 committed volunteers made a big splash with the Diwali fund raiser. Attended by around 450 Indians, the event was a huge hit and received great feedback. We got several people to commit to the cause.

[VikramS]

Have mixed feelings about this. Loss of a good, solid seat... but it may well be worth it if anant kr is cut down to size and further denied an RS ticket... ejected from the parliamentary board etc. His patron Sushmaben may suffer a similar fate if the party decides against supporting her whole heartedly in her MP seat wherever...

Why do you assume that the techies will vote for him? Was he very popular inside INFY? Familiarity often breeds contempt.

[RajeshA]

Published on Nov 18, 2013
By Shishir Gupta and Rahul Karmakar
BJP lone crusader in Assam; no truck with AGP: Hindustan Times

Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi’s plan to hold five rallies in the northeast is no indication of a tie-up with its formal ally, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). In fact, the Sangh Parivar feels the party should face the electorate alone in Assam.

Senior party leaders told Hindustan Times that an alliance with AGP was remote as the former ally was not expected to bring in any incremental vote to the BJP and may end up sending a wrong message to its traditional voter. The conclusion was arrived at after discussions within the state unit and the Sangh Parivar.

The BJP plans to hold three election rallies in Assam, one in Itanagar in Arunachal and another one in Gangtok in January 2014 with an outside chance of a rally in Imphal.

While AGP President Prafulla Kumar Mahanta said: “Any talk of revival of alliance with BJP is premature,” BJP’s Assam unit president Sarbananda Sonowal said: “Expanding the party base is our main priority at this juncture, not alliance.”

Other leaders of both parties said there are hints yet of reviving the decade-old alliance. The divorce followed assessment of electoral performances by AGP and pressure from within on Mahanta — readmitted into the party in 2008 after banishment in 2005 — not to align with a party with a communal tag.

It all began in 2001, when faced with an anti-incumbency wave, then chief minister Mahanta forged a pre-poll alliance with BJP. The alliance proved counter-productive for AGP that won 23 seats, but was beneficial for the BJP which bagged 10 seats — remarkable for a party in a state that finds it difficult to align with its Hindutva agenda.

In the 2006 assembly elections, the AGP’s tally came down to 21 while the BJP held on to its 2001 score of 10 seats.

In the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP and AGP got two seats each out of a maximum of 14 seats. In 2009, the BJP doubled its tally to four seats while the AGP managed only one. This cemented the belief that the BJP’s rise was at the expense of the AGP.

This was reflected in the 2011 assembly elections with the AGP winning only 10 seats. The BJP managed five seats — half of its 2006 tally — but the performance was attributed to the Congress playing the Hindu Bengali card to capture southern Assam’s Barak Valley that had been with the BJP earlier.

BJP should seriously consider merging a part of AGP into BJP itself, along with Prafulla Kumar Mahanta.

[Shanmukh]

Published on Nov 18, 2013
By Shishir Gupta and Rahul Karmakar
BJP lone crusader in Assam; no truck with AGP: Hindustan Times

Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi’s plan to hold five rallies in the northeast is no indication of a tie-up with its formal ally, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). In fact, the Sangh Parivar feels the party should face the electorate alone in Assam.

Senior party leaders told Hindustan Times that an alliance with AGP was remote as the former ally was not expected to bring in any incremental vote to the BJP and may end up sending a wrong message to its traditional voter. The conclusion was arrived at after discussions within the state unit and the Sangh Parivar.

The BJP plans to hold three election rallies in Assam, one in Itanagar in Arunachal and another one in Gangtok in January 2014 with an outside chance of a rally in Imphal.

While AGP President Prafulla Kumar Mahanta said: “Any talk of revival of alliance with BJP is premature,” BJP’s Assam unit president Sarbananda Sonowal said: “Expanding the party base is our main priority at this juncture, not alliance.”

Other leaders of both parties said there are hints yet of reviving the decade-old alliance. The divorce followed assessment of electoral performances by AGP and pressure from within on Mahanta — readmitted into the party in 2008 after banishment in 2005 — not to align with a party with a communal tag.

It all began in 2001, when faced with an anti-incumbency wave, then chief minister Mahanta forged a pre-poll alliance with BJP. The alliance proved counter-productive for AGP that won 23 seats, but was beneficial for the BJP which bagged 10 seats — remarkable for a party in a state that finds it difficult to align with its Hindutva agenda.

In the 2006 assembly elections, the AGP’s tally came down to 21 while the BJP held on to its 2001 score of 10 seats.

In the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP and AGP got two seats each out of a maximum of 14 seats. In 2009, the BJP doubled its tally to four seats while the AGP managed only one. This cemented the belief that the BJP’s rise was at the expense of the AGP.

This was reflected in the 2011 assembly elections with the AGP winning only 10 seats. The BJP managed five seats — half of its 2006 tally — but the performance was attributed to the Congress playing the Hindu Bengali card to capture southern Assam’s Barak Valley that had been with the BJP earlier.

BJP should seriously consider merging a part of AGP into BJP itself, along with Prafulla Kumar Mahanta.

It has already done so, RajeshA-ji. Sarbananda Sonowal, the current state BJP president, used to win Dibrugarh for the AGP. I would poach on Sabda Ram Rabha, Bhupen Roy, Arun Kumar Sarma, Chandra Mohan Patowary, and Keshab Mahanta of the AGP, if I were the BJP. The only danger is that Prafulla Kumar Mahanta might himself contest Lok Sabha elections from Nagaon (which is a delicately poised seat - about 40% of the electorate is Muslim), and ruin the chances of the BJP (which has been winning for the last three elections). Prafulla Kumar Mahanta is a very influential politician, but he is the hot potato that BJP can neither swallow nor spit. He cannot be ignored (he is too powerful for that), and he cannot be integrated, since he is too authoritarian,and his brand of politics will alienate the Bengali Hindu votebank of the BJP. The BJP needs to figure out what it will do with him.

The BJP has another problem, by the way. That problem is Gautam Roy of the Congress (MLA from Katlicharra). Single handedly, he took away the entire Barak valley (once a BJP stronghold) from the BJP in the last elections (2011 Assembly). If he contests from Silchar, I expect the BJP to find itself in trouble in that seat, which the BJP had won in 2009. The BJP is a divided house in the Barak valley, and does not seem to have an answer for Gautam Roy.

[RajeshA]

It has already done so, RajeshA-ji. Sarbananda Sonowal, the current state BJP president, used to win Dibrugarh for the AGP. I would poach on Sabda Ram Rabha, Bhupen Roy, Arun Kumar Sarma, Chandra Mohan Patowary, and Keshab Mahanta of the AGP, if I were the BJP. The only danger is that Prafulla Kumar Mahanta might himself contest Lok Sabha elections from Nagaon (which is a delicately poised seat - about 40% of the electorate is Muslim), and ruin the chances of the BJP (which has been winning for the last three elections). Prafulla Kumar Mahanta is a very influential politician, but he is the hot potato that BJP can neither swallow nor spit. He cannot be ignored (he is too powerful for that), and he cannot be integrated, since he is too authoritarian,and his brand of politics will alienate the Bengali Hindu votebank of the BJP. The BJP needs to figure out what it will do with him.

I would say, let Prafulla Kumar Mahanta stand from Nagaon, but on a BJP symbol!

The BJP has another problem, by the way. That problem is Gautam Roy of the Congress (MLA from Katlicharra). Single handedly, he took away the entire Barak valley (once a BJP stronghold) from the BJP in the last elections (2011 Assembly). If he contests from Silchar, I expect the BJP to find itself in trouble in that seat, which the BJP had won in 2009. The BJP is a divided house in the Barak valley, and does not seem to have an answer for Gautam Roy.

I would say Gautam Roy is a loud mouth with little development delivery. BJP should promise the people that if they come to power, they would engage Gautam Roy in the local theater for daily amusement.

[Yagnasri]

If there is a base in a area then NM mantra will give seats. It was seen a increase of 10 to 15% votes increase was predicted in other areas as NM effect. I hope this gives some advantage in Assam. I am not at all having any knowledge of the state of course.

What about the resent Bodo - bangaldeshi riots? will there be no effects?

[Shanmukh]

If there is a base in a area then NM mantra will give seats. It was seen a increase of 10 to 15% votes increase was predicted in other areas as NM effect. I hope this gives some advantage in Assam. I am not at all having any knowledge of the state of course.

What about the resent Bodo - bangaldeshi riots? will there be no effects?

Narayana Rao-ji,
It is quite possible that the BJP will register a significant increase because of the Modi effect. The BJP has always scored about 25% of the vote in the Lok Sabha elections (althouth this drops to around 12% in the Assembly elections). The best performance of the BJP was in 1999, when it got nearly 30% of the total vote. Due to the recent riots, it is possible that the state has been polarised. The BJP would, in that case, increase its vote share by 5-10%. It can expect to retain Silchar (possible, but difficult, due to infighting in the BJP), Gauhati, Mangaldoi, and Nagaon (unless Prafulla Kumar Mahanta contests from Nagaon), and maybe even snatch a seat or two from Congress in upper Assam (a bit difficult, because the dynamics of upper Assam are different, but possible to win Dibrugarh and Tezpur, and with some luck, even Jorhat). However, the Bodos are represented by their own parties - the BPF and the BPPF - and unless the BJP gets the Bodo vote, it is hard to win in Kokrajhar or Barpeta. If the BJP can integrate the BPPF (party of U G Brahma), then the BJP stands an excellent chance of taking about 8-9 seats of the 14 in Assam.

[Yagnasri]

The going with Bodo parties may be wise idea. Right?

[Shanmukh]

The going with Bodo parties may be wise idea. Right?

Indeed. The BPF has been with the Congress for the last 10 years. However, after the recent riots, BPF is said to be feeling the heat. What they will do is now open to question (however, Bwiswamuthiary of the BPF is said to be fully in the grip of the Congress). BPPF is the other Bodo party (led by U G Brahma), and they have always gone alone. If the BJP can ally with, or better still, integrate the BPPF into the party, it will be great.

Thing is - the Bodos have a strong community attachment, no matter the religion (some 10-20% are Christians, but 80% of the Bodos are still Hindus or their own religion, as they describe it). Bodos vote on community lines, rather than religious lines. Therefore, it is vital that the BJP try to bring them into an alliance, and under the greater Indic umbrella, before the EJs make a significant impact.

[Sidd]

Nishant Chaturvedi of Express news doing live opinion poll. Gives you a sense of which way the wind is blowing in Delhi.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3lF9frAZL8&feature=youtube_gdata_player

you can find link to his previous polls at this twitter account.

https://twitter.com/nishantchat

[VinodTK]

From Times Of India: Priyanka on hush-hush visit to Rae Bareli

LUCKNOW: Making a quiet and unannounced visit to Shivgarh in Rae Bareli, Priyanka Vadra began a low-key two day tour of parliamentary constituency of her mother Sonia Gandhi, the All India Congress Committee president. Priyanka, who spent the day interacting with residents of Shivgarh, sources said, will continue to travel from village-to-village in a bid to understand local level problems being faced by the locals. She also, lent the healing touch to an injured boy in Shivgarh on Monday.

Over the past months, Priyanka has not only watched over reorganisation of the party structure in Rae Bareli, she has also hand-held a similar exercise in her brother Rahul Gandhi's constituency, Amethi. In continuation of Rahul's advisory to all sitting MPs and ministers to be more aggressive and visible in the state, Priyanka has also decided to travel to the remotest corners of her mother's parliamentary constituency to "connect" with the voters there. Sources in the party said she will continue, over the next few weeks and months, to make more such visits.

[niran]

some breakfast NEWS:
second phase voting in CG has started, there are 72 seats, in 2008, BJP=36 Congress=35 BSP=1
this time around there are 4.2 million young voters out of them 1.9 million are first time voters, and as per
early trend already 4 hundred thousand first timers as already cast their votes, as usual every party claims the young
voted them, but reality is this the first time happenstance and everyone is dhoti shivering.

Raj Babber (congress neta whose claim to fame is "i can still eat full stomach wholesome meal in mumbai in under Rs15 INR)
got a notice from Dr.Raman Singh raj baber has been advised(in legal ishpeak) to bend down and beg for forgiveness or else...
Raj babu two days ago saw few mahila attendees in a rally in CG so in his mardangi show off he uttered DR. Raman Singh is nakli(fake) daagder.

[Chandragupta]

Have mixed feelings about this. Loss of a good, solid seat... but it may well be worth it if anant kr is cut down to size and further denied an RS ticket... ejected from the parliamentary board etc. His patron Sushmaben may suffer a similar fate if the party decides against supporting her whole heartedly in her MP seat wherever...

Why do you assume that the techies will vote for him? Was he very popular inside INFY? Familiarity often breeds contempt.

Techies will vote for him, but only those who will never ever vote BJP anyway. He will make little impact.

[Santosh]

Nishant Chaturvedi of Express news doing live opinion poll. Gives you a sense of which way the wind is blowing in Delhi.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3lF9frAZL8&feature=youtube_gdata_player

you can find link to his previous polls at this twitter account.

https://twitter.com/nishantchat

There are some serious AAP supporters still out there. We need to go all out and bring out true image of AAP which is that of kangi lapdog who hates Indian Army, hates Delhi POlice for Batla House, loves rabid mullas and want to give away Cashmere.

[niran]

Some underground khabar (AdM pliss to delete if inappropriate)
Sanatani samaj who last time voted Basapa have overwhelmingly
voted bhahapa this time.

[dhruvM]

Ground report from Chhattisgarh:

I am a nanha mujahid and this was my first time voting. Last elections I was still in madrassa so could not vote. Returning officer in the polling booth was happy with the turn out. Approx 35-40% by 1 o clock.

Some observations:

1. Got report from house maid in the morning of congress distributing daaru, blanket and 500 bucks per family last night. According to her info this happened in all Labour bastis. FWIW the incumbent MLA is congressi.

2. Maid, Gardner and most of their friends are true blue panja chaap. Only my doodh wallah said he'll vote bjp.

[vivek.rao]

The scum IAS officer involved in Shah spying case

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/-in-j ... a-/808557/

Was Gujarat-cadre IAS officer Pradeep Sharma, who is behind bars in connection with a slew of corruption and illegal land allotment cases in Kutch district, planning to take asylum abroad?

If evidence reportedly found in his laptop seized from a Delhi hotel is anything to go by, Sharma was trying to obtain a duplicate passport.

The recovery of the laptop and the evidence sourced from it by the officials of the Directorate of Forensic Science (DFS) was one of the reasons considered by the Gujarat High Court while refusing him bail recently in a graft case registered against him by the state CID (Crime).

In his judgment denying bail to Sharma, Justice J B Pardiwala says: "I... cannot ignore the fact that certain items like laptop, mobile phone, deed of conveyance, etc. were recovered from the possession of the accused-applicant from the said hotel in New Delhi. As per the report of the Directorate of Forensic Science laboratory, Gandhinagar, there were some chats on the laptop relating to obtaining another passport, seeking asylum option, etc".

Incidentally, the state CID (Crime) had moved an application in a Rajkot court last week, seeking permission to collect Sharma's DNA samples, saying he might flee India on a fake passport. The CID had even submitted that Sharma might undergo plastic surgery to change his appearance.

At present, Sharma is an accused in a number of cases registered against him in connection with illegal land allotment to private companies as Kutch district collector.

[vivek.rao]

What is going on here? Somebody is on fire and PAPPU getting earful from PAPPINI