Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Muppalla
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 28 Nov 2013 21:20

BJP, Congress using analytical tools for tracking voter choice down to tiny detail
NEW DELHI: Who are you? What do you like? What do you buy? What entertains you most? And therefore, what's your likely political preference?

India's two biggest parties - BJP and Congress - are asking and trying to answer these questions. Both are deploying highly sophisticated data-based analytics in the upcoming parliamentary elections. In other words, Big Data is watching you, the voter

On a recent Sunday afternoon, in the lawns of a Lutyens' Delhi bungalow near the upscale Khan Market, some 150 BJP workers gathered to listen to a presentation by a team headed by Arvind Gupta, head of the party's national IT cell. The audience was drawn from among the key campaign managers of the party's candidates from 66 assembly constituencies (of the 70 constituencies in Delhi, four are being contested by BJP's alliance partner Shiromani Akali Dal).

In the course of a two-hour presentation, Gupta ran them through the array of technologies and analytics tools the party is deploying this election in Delhi. The work led by the IT cell, overseen by the party's state in-charge, Nitin Gadkari, is in two domains - one is the use of social media and customised micromessaging (text messages, emails, WhatsApp messages) to reach the voter. The other is a broad range of tactics based on crunching publicly available data for the upcoming elections.

Image
The party's war room for the Delhi election, based out of a ramshackle outhouse converted into a modern 20-seater office in this bungalow, has been asking every candidate to make two appointments - a social media manager and a data-savvy person to leverage a software the party has developed.

The software allows access to a server located in the war room that holds within its digital recesses a great deal of information about some 12 million voters who will decide Delhi's political future, how they voted in the past and how they are likely to vote this time. "India runs three elections - pre-modern, modern and post-modern. In at least 150-160 parliamentary constituencies, the election can be classified as post-modern. In these areas, we are confident that the technologies we have developed over many years now, can make a difference," Gupta said.

DATA-DRIVEN CAMPAIGN

This round of assembly elections is serving as the testing ground for techniques being developed by BJP and Congress. According to people with direct knowledge of the situation, the most advanced polling and analytics work is being done by Narendra Modi's backroom based out of Gandhinagar for BJP and a team in Bangalore led by Union minister Veerappa Moily's son-in-law and entrepreneur Anand Adkoli for Congress. The work done by these two teams is secretive and little about their precise nature is known outside of a few senior functionaries in both parties. But data analytics of varying sophistication is being applied at many levels.

The most widespread technique is to marry two sets of data that are in the public domain. One is the historic voting pattern, which is now available for up to the booth level in many states. The other is the voter roll, which many state election commissions now make available online. By marrying the two, candidates can identify the pocket boroughs of their party, the booths unlikely to elect them and the ones that could go either way, or the swing booths.


This helps them decide where to spend how much time and effort. But an analysis of the voter rolls can further narrow this down, and tell a candidate whether or not to spend any time at all on any particular individual. This is an imprecise science, based on surname analysis and application of conventional wisdom about the castes and religions that are traditionally likely to vote for one party vis a vis another.

"Data might be available with a lot of people. It's the analysis that matters," said Sanjay Sachdev, a key campaign official for Arti Mehra, who is contesting on a BJP ticket from Delhi's Malviya Nagar constituency. "The war room has given us the details of the entire electorate. Our booth-level managers try to collect contact information for every voter. We manage to cover 60-80% of the constituency this way," he said.

BJP's Delhi war room has handed over colour-coded voter rolls to each candidate. The red, green and yellow codes indicate, based on a number of factors and local intelligence, how likely an individual is to vote for the party. When a candidate meets the voter and makes a different assessment, he can change the colour code against that person, and it gets updated in the central server. "Data gives you the most dispassionate view, but human intelligence is always more reliable than system intelligence," said Gupta, the IT cell chief.

On the messaging and outreach part, Gupta's team has developed some advanced techniques. When you visit a website of BJP or its various support groups, a cookie (a tiny bit of software) is planted on your computer. This cookie will track your browsing pattern long after you have closed the website and help an algorithm to build a demographic profile based on your browsing pattern. If, for instance, you go from a BJP website to a site on motorcycles and then to a jobs portal, the algorithm will conclude that you are a young male from this particular constituency who is a job seeker. This then helps the system place a contextual ad when you, for instance, run a search on Naukri.com for 'jobs in Delhi'.

A BJP banner ad under the results will say: "There are no jobs in Delhi. India deserves better". Based on your digital profile that sits on BJP's servers, their computers can tailor the message served to you through a text message or email wherever they are able to marry the digital profile with contact information.

This could mean that different individuals in the same household could get messages customised to address their specific concerns.

CONGRESS FIGHTS BACK

While BJP is secure in its domination of the social media space and has started focussing on specialised electoral solutions, Congress has started an earnest campaign to capture lost ground on social media. "We realised that a lot of BJP's dominance is orchestrated and is a result of big spending online. Our approach is different. Ours is volunteer-driven and organic. And we encourage our volunteers to focus on positive messaging and to absolutely stay away from lies, half-truths and canards," said Deepender Hooda, the two-time MP who is heading the party's efforts on social media. Hooda's social media cell has been organising social media workshops.

They will eventually cover 70 cities. Each workshop is attended by 250-300 volunteers. "Now you will find that Congress-related hashtags trend more often because the geographical spread of our volunteers is very wide, from Agartala to Kanyakumari, unlike BJP's, which comes from a few big cities," Hooda said


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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 28 Nov 2013 23:35

rajithn wrote:Sycophancy's new level: AP ex-minister wants Telengana named as "Sonia Telengana". He calls her Telengana Telli (Mother of telengana) and is putting up a bust of SG in hyderabad!!!! ROFLMAO!!!


And I thought Modi was the Teli in this election! :wink: May be NaMo can be the next Samaikyandhra Teli!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 29 Nov 2013 00:21

Parveen Kaushik. ‏@Me_pkaushik 2h
@madversity
Kamasutra has added a new position called *'Manmohan'* You get on top and do Nothing.. Hahhahha, Sir Pls RT. :rotfl:

Sridhar K
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sridhar K » 29 Nov 2013 10:34

vivek.rao wrote:Parveen Kaushik. ‏@Me_pkaushik 2h
@madversity
Kamasutra has added a new position called *'Manmohan'* You get on top and do Nothing.. Hahhahha, Sir Pls RT. :rotfl:

This is a old one and heard it as * manmohana*

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby kapilrdave » 29 Nov 2013 12:47


bjp should consider the recent marketing tactics used by quickr. They have tied up with some mobile manufacturers to provide their app preloaded in their fones. Similarly they can provide NM's app preloaded too :) .

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 29 Nov 2013 14:00

in rural areas and for the urban lower middle class, its a big business selling phones with SD cards having lots of songs and movies and periodically reloading them with the latest content. this is where a well organized namo app with speeches might slot in.
the consumers do not have internet conn at home to download content so these small shops do it.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rahul Mehta » 29 Nov 2013 20:52

Rahul Mehta: Finally, MNC-Missionaries will use AAP\AK in may-2014 to

1. Either cut NaMo-votes

2. OR force NaMo to give tickects to pro-MNC pro-Missionary anti-Swadeshi anti-Hinduvaadi candidates .

If NaMo accepted MNC-Missionary terms, and MNC-media will downplay AK, or MNC-owners may even ask AK to openly support NaMo. And if NaMo doesnt acceot MNC-Missionary terms, then MNC-paid-media will project AK with full force and cut 3 crore middle class voters making a dent of 30 seats. In either case, Hinduvaad and Indian interest are both gone in may-2014.

If AAP was working to damage Congress and help BJP, then why does English Hindustan Times Delhi gives FAR more and far better coverage to AAP than Hindi Hindustan Times Delhi

vivek.rao: So what are you doing to expose AK? What can we do to expose AK?


Well, I am only telling the TRUTH to all via newspaper advt as well as FB posts, pamphlets etc that AK doesnt have have any agenda to change the laws of the land. (see last para in my IE advt at https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... 2173661922 and Gujarat Sacmachar advt at https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... 9078216922 , pls see translation in the text ) . Once activists are convinced that AK has no goal to change the law of the land. , it becomes easy convince activists that AK's ONLY goal is to cut NaMo-votes and thus help Congress.

Most pro-NaMo activists say that "AK will cut NaMo votes" and that IMo doesnt make any difference to pro-AK-activists. Because pro-AK-activists believe that (a) AK wants to change law of land and so he is contesting election (b) his cutting NaMo votes is unwelcome side-effect, but cost of greater good (c) those votes are not NaMo's property. IOW , along as activists think that "AK wants to change law of India", all his ill-side-effects are pardoned.

IMO, pro-NaMo-activists should take pains and explain that "AK has no intention to being good laws in India". How can that be proved? For that, they need to prove that "Janlokpal with NO RTR Janlokpal" that AK demanded was *bad* law. And that AK has NOT given any draft for law he claims he wants and so forth.

Rahul Mehta: In either case, Hinduvaad and Indian interest are both gone in may-2014.

vivek.rao: Are these interests being take care in any form or fashion now to be gone in 2014?


Yes. I am trying to benefit Hinduvaad and national Interests using means described in following thread viewtopic.php?f=24&t=6646

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 30 Nov 2013 02:57

Mystery chip on EVM presses panic button
BHOPAL: The people's verdict is locked away in EVMs stashed in strong-rooms guarded by paramilitary forces, but 10 days to D-Day, conspiracy theories are afloat. While Congress alleged EVMs could be tampered with, the seizure of an electronic chip on Tuesday from a voting machine at a remote booth in Sagar has given grist to political intrigue.

The device - larger than the size of a standard mobile sim card and three small batteries - was found wrapped in black cloth, below the EVM, said sources. District election officer Yogendra Sharma said a probe has been launched to ascertain whether the device had any impact during voting.

The officer summoned polling officers of Booth No. 56 in Surkhi constituency on Thursday and directed returning officer Suresh Agrawal to submit a report on this issue. "I am waiting for a report of the returning officer before taking action. We will send the device for forensic analysis," said Sharma.

Panic buttons were pressed after Congress candidate from Surkhi, Kamlesh Baghel, lodged a complaint naming a local resident, C P Singh, as the brain behind the device. Singh went underground hours after the complaint was lodged giving credence to the conspiracy angle.

"Singh telephoned me on November 21 seeking an appointment. He said three EMVs can be manipulated with a single remote control. I did not hear him out. On polling day when my agent reported seizure of a device, I recalled Singh's offer," said Baghel.

"Singh is on the run ever since I sent my driver to his house to enquire about the device. He sent several SMSs on my cellphone, saying he can use this device to delete all votes from the EVM." One of the SMSs sent to Baghel's phone by the suspect reads, "abi bhi sab kuch ho sakta hey, evm ki memory ko khali kiya ja skta hey. Lekin isme apna bhi ghata ho sakta hey. Maine evm factory mey kaam kiya hey." (Manipulation can still be done. The EVM memory can be formatted, but it could have an adverse effect too. I have worked in an EVM manufacturing company).

He sent more than 10 SMSs to the Congress candidate, which was forwarded to the investigating officers.

District police have launched hunt for Singh, who has since sneaked into Gujarat. "We are trying to hunt him down," said superintendent of polilce, Abhay Singh.



Experts claim that a 2x2 mm chip can receive radio signals from a distance of 100 metres. If these EVMs use such a chip, then the candidate's 'number' can allegedly be transmitted to the EVM from a distance any time before counting and the machines can change the votes inside. This leaves no traces and ensures that their favourite candidate wins, say experts.


Chief electoral officer Jaideep Govind claims the EVM machines are tamper-proof. "There is no need to worry," he said.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krisna » 30 Nov 2013 03:32

http://www.theindianrepublic.com/tbp/su ... 014-2.html

why you should vote for NDA led NaMo- brilliant article.
needs to be read esp for the non NDA voters who believe in India.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Deans » 30 Nov 2013 10:44

krisna wrote:http://www.theindianrepublic.com/tbp/support-narendra-modi-pm-2014-2.html

why you should vote for NDA led NaMo- brilliant article.
needs to be read esp for the non NDA voters who believe in India.


Great article. Several things I as unaware of even though I'm a NM supporter. It should be widely circulated.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 30 Nov 2013 14:05

Folks,
Over skype, I was talking to a bunch of Tamil Nadu BJP members (mostly from south Tamil Nadu), who were present with a Karnataka BJP bigwig. I want to emphasise that this is just my impression. Usually, the Tamil Nadu BJP wing would approach elections very casually. I have never observed any degree of seriousness towards any elections in the Tamil Nadu BJP cadre. But this time, there is a new spring in their stride, and they were claiming that among the fishermen and the coastal folk, the BJP has made a definite impression, and it will show in the elections. I asked them if they expect to win any seat. They say that Pon Radhakrishnan has a definite chance in Kanyakumari, and they expect to make a good showing in Ramanathapuram, and Thoothkudi. They were saying that Vaiko is eager to partner with the BJP precisely because the BJP apparently has very considerable influence in Virudhnagar. They are certain about one thing though. They say that if Chidambaram contests this time from Sivaganga, without a DMK/AIADMK alliance, they expect to beat him to fourth or fifth spot. The NaMo effect seems to be very considerable in Tamil Nadu. They are keen to have a top BJP leader contest polls from Tamil Nadu - say it will show seriousness, and will help a great deal in getting votes that might otherwise go to JJ. Of course, much of this may be just bravado, but I get the feeling that they are approaching the elections, which are still more than six months away, in real earnest.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 30 Nov 2013 16:05

nageshks wrote:They are keen to have a top BJP leader contest polls from Tamil Nadu - say it will show seriousness, and will help a great deal in getting votes that might otherwise go to JJ.


May be Nirmala Sitaraman and Subramanian Swamy can contest from TN.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gunjur » 30 Nov 2013 16:17

Though not exactly election related news/views. This is not based on any survey(i.e. no hard data to prove this) but just my observation only.

In bengaluru, i have noticed that many people from states where even though bjp is a fringe player, talk highly in favour of bjp. Few who do have votes here, vote for bjp blindly. (why i say blindly is, one specific guy said he voted for bjp in assembly polls here. But when i asked who was the bjp candidate, he had no clue. It was another thing that bjp lost that seat. This person is from orissa). I have come across many bengalis, APites, mallus, tamils (upto date on current affairs & are news junkies) and also have favourable opinion about bjp. As said those few of them who have votes here, do vote for bjp here. But the same folks somehow do not vote for bjp in their own states. Actually one mallu whom i know (to an extent) is always like why is bjp not growing in kerala. But ask him who he votes for, its either cong or commies. When asked why, atleast as per him no good leaders there. But without voting , how will bjp grow?? Without growth how will any leadership emerge??

So is it lack of leadership?? Is it just that they do not to "waste" their votes?? or??? Why a person who votes for bjp in karnataka even for local municipal elections doesn't want bjp in his own state? Seems many are confused at least in terms of voting preferences.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 30 Nov 2013 16:43

Gunjur wrote:Actually one mallu whom i know (to an extent) is always like why is bjp not growing in kerala. But ask him who he votes for, its either cong or commies. When asked why, atleast as per him no good leaders there. But without voting , how will bjp grow?? Without growth how will any leadership emerge??

So is it lack of leadership?? Is it just that they do not to "waste" their votes?? or??? Why a person who votes for bjp in karnataka even for local municipal elections doesn't want bjp in his own state? Seems many are confused at least in terms of voting preferences.


Perhaps in Kerala he thinks like a Keralite, hence votes according to Kerala-specific politics; and in Karnataka he thinks like an Indian, as belonging to the big country, and hence votes according to national interests.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 30 Nov 2013 19:17

Image

(posted on facebook by someone)

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krisna » 01 Dec 2013 04:09

per some reports- unverified-
ahmed patel/high command has told congis and paid media to pull the plug on aap kejriwal-
congis losing position as aap has pulled some committed voters from congis also.
Hence now aaap losing ground,
Sheila aunty leet the cat amongst the pigeons by saying that she would not mind if aap congi joing together-- mainly to convince congi voters drifting to aap to come back it is all in thee same family.
kejriwal panicked and said that he will not align with BJP or congis.
but in every street mohalla this is being propagated effcetively-- surely will scr@w aap royally.


BJP overall seems a little bettre despite encroachment by aap on uncommitted voters, but due to the revelations of kejriwal by congis high command. some voters are also back in BJP kitty.

-------------------------------------------------
kejriwal goose may be cooked slowly as there is suspicion amongst high command that he has gone a little too far, trying to be a kingmaker if not the king. :mrgreen:

voting pattern will tell the fate of congis-aap on dec4.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Aditya_V » 01 Dec 2013 07:24

Ihope AAP ends up splitting vote and giving BJP a bigger victory than otherwise would have been. That will mean the INC will stop PRP and similar ventures. IF BJP gets a majority in Delhi, INC will wind AAP within 3 months. IF AAP can help an INC victory or give a hung verdict, AAP will be funded in all major cities.

Lets see how it pans out

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 01 Dec 2013 09:06

Rajasthan Congress MLAs blame Rahul Gandhi for poor crowd

While some leaders in Delhi believe it’s the poor choice of candidates that’s behind the thin crowd at the party vice-president’s rallies, Congress candidates in Rajasthan hold Rahul himself responsible.

“He (Rahul) is always late by 2-3 hours and leaves the gathering dissatisfied,” a candidate told dna. This candidate was among the few for whom Rahul had campaigned in the state.

In fact, party candidates say people have nothing against the Congress government in Rajasthan either. People are angry with the leaders at the centre for not doing anything to bring down inflation and prices, they say.


Poll-bound Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan have seen some 54 rebel candidates filing nominations against official Congress candidates.

In Delhi, Congress candidates have a different complaint. They are upset at the lack of support from the party headquarters.

“Our spokespersons have been so fixed on attacking Narendra Modi for the past two weeks that they have no time to focus on elections. The BJP is bombarding the media with so many press conferences and statements on its campaign in Delhi,” a candidate told dna.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby apoorv » 01 Dec 2013 09:37

Voted for BJP in Jaipur today. Hopefully kamal khilega aur haath ko lagegi hathkadi.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby apoorv » 01 Dec 2013 17:26

74.38% percent voting reported by ETV Rajasthan as final figure.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 01 Dec 2013 17:43

apoorv wrote:74.38% percent voting reported by ETV Rajasthan as final figure.


Historic!

In 2008 vote share of Congress was 36.82% against the BJP’s 34.27% with 66.34% voting.

So there is not going to be just a swing from Congress to BJP of a few percentage say of 3-6%, but a substantial increase in vote difference between BJP and Congress. Congress is truly finished in Rajasthan in these elections.

Official figures

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 01 Dec 2013 18:11

:D :D Increase in % of votes normally favours ruling party as per some people including gurus of BR.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vishvak » 01 Dec 2013 18:44

≈50% => con race 'victory' is equation for the Rajasthan elections is what I heard.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sridhar K » 01 Dec 2013 18:49

I just came back from a Panchdwaraka pilgrimage covering Guj and Southern Rajasthan. BJP flags and Vasundhara Raje posters everywhere and hardly any congress posters.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 01 Dec 2013 19:38

^^Cong don't need bosters and naytas... Cong has EVM magic. We'll see who'll win... Bwhahahahaha (RenookaC ishtyle).

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Manish_Sharma » 01 Dec 2013 21:04

Meenakshi Lekhi is really good, she proved inconclusively on INDIA Tv that AAP is 'B' team of congress. AAP professor had no answer, She claimed:
1.) Sonia wrote letter to FM and PM not to transfer Kejriwal outside Delhi in '2005.

2.) AAP wasn't entitled to have a symbol legally, but again ConParty made it possible for them through a change in law.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby rohitv » 01 Dec 2013 22:45

http://surajitdasgupta.blogspot.in/2013 ... party.html

A very detailed account of what is wrong with AAP by former member Surajit Dasgupta

Added later:
last para in the above article :

Observing things from a distance, Rahul Chimanbhai Mehta of the Right to Recall movement says, “The AAP is wasting thousands of crores of activist-hours by creating just one more party, which will be no different from the Congress.”
:)

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 02 Dec 2013 05:06

Pee Vee ‏@PingVond 2h
#AUG national figures BJP 196, Con 105! Rajasthan fig (based on ground reports and not Exit poll) BJP 137, Con 53, Rest 10

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 02 Dec 2013 15:45

Voter turnout in Rajasthan Assembly polls at 75.27%.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krisna » 02 Dec 2013 17:08

Look Saba elections were never as high as local state elections.

Max was during 1984 sympathy wave at 63%.
If the voting in 2014 is similar to the elections of state around 70%, it would have truly marked a step towards real democracy-- in the sense more people voting.
Worst was in 2004 when under 50% voted.
Because of that India truly lost her way in this decade.

All efforts must be made not to miss the bus this time-- every Indian must vote. :(( :((

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RoyG » 02 Dec 2013 17:20

Dhananjay wrote:Meenakshi Lekhi is really good, she proved inconclusively on INDIA Tv that AAP is 'B' team of congress. AAP professor had no answer, She claimed:
1.) Sonia wrote letter to FM and PM not to transfer Kejriwal outside Delhi in '2005.

2.) AAP wasn't entitled to have a symbol legally, but again ConParty made it possible for them through a change in law.


link to video?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 02 Dec 2013 17:59

Image

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Manish_Sharma » 02 Dec 2013 21:47

RoyG wrote:
Dhananjay wrote:Meenakshi Lekhi is really good, she proved inconclusively on INDIA Tv that AAP is 'B' team of congress. AAP professor had no answer, She claimed:
1.) Sonia wrote letter to FM and PM not to transfer Kejriwal outside Delhi in '2005.

2.) AAP wasn't entitled to have a symbol legally, but again ConParty made it possible for them through a change in law.


link to video?


This was the news but this one I found is a small part of that 1 hour long program maybe they'll load more by tomorow:

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rahul Mehta » 02 Dec 2013 22:30

Congress may give away Delhi Assembly 2013, to create image that AAP is anti-Congress and thus win Loksabha-2014

lets compare two scenarios A and B

A ) Congress lets AAP get Delhi muslim\slum voters. That would create following scenario . BJP = 35 seats , Congress = 25 seats , AAP = 10 seats , total = 70 seats ; And AAP will abstain in forming Govt and so BJP will get CM-ship.

B ) Congress does not let AAP get Delhi muslim\slum voters. That would create following scenario . BJP = 25 seats , Congress = 40 seats , AAP = 5 seats , total = 70 seats ; And Congress will get CM-ship.

In scenario-A, AAP will get reputation of "party which cuts all votes including poor and muslim votes". So in may-2014 loksabha, AAP will get many more Hindu middle class voters. Now in may-2014, AAP wont get even one slum\poor votes. So Congress gains, BJP loses and AAP gains zero seats.

In scenario-B, AAP will get reputation of "party which cuts BJP votes". So in may-2014 loksabha. So AAP will get less Hindu middle class voters. So BJP gains, and Congress loses.

in scenario-A, Congress loses Delhi Assembly but gains Loksabha.

in scenario-B, Congress gains Delhi Assembly but loses Loksabha.

For Congress, scenario-A is profitable.

So there is a real possibility that Congress will ensure that poor/muslim voters vote for AAP. How? By asking Mullah to issue fatwa to vote for AAP and by not doing much campaigning etc in slums.

RajeshA
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 02 Dec 2013 23:09

Rahul Mehta ji,

if AAP doesn't get double digit, hardly anybody would be voting for AAP in 2014.

Shanmukh
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 03 Dec 2013 02:17

There is a curious amount of enthusiasm in the Tamil Nadu BJP, as I mentioned before. They are undertaking a padayatra to cover 12K villages.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEOczvLIo54

I am not sure how much of their efforts will translate into votes, but, at least, even with six months to go for the elections, the BJP is actually alive in Tamil Nadu!

Can somene recognise the logo of the news channel it is being aired in?

Prasad
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Prasad » 03 Dec 2013 02:34

Dinamalar (Daily Flower)

KJo
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby KJo » 03 Dec 2013 06:49

High turnout in Rajasthan. Does that mean that it is advantageous to the challenger (NaMo)?
Or am I mistaken in my analysis?

Rahul Mehta
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rahul Mehta » 03 Dec 2013 07:07

RajeshA wrote:Rahul Mehta ji,

if AAP doesn't get double digit, hardly anybody would be voting for AAP in 2014.


AAP is very likely to get 15% to 20% votes

It may get a few seats.

Well, due to MNC-paid media-campaign , the enthusiasm of AAP workers is very very high. It will NOT decrease even if AAP gets 2 seats, as long as AAP gets over 10% votes, which it will get.

Some 20000 AAP volunteers from across India have come to Delhi to work for AAP campaign. When they go back, they will put up a Loksabha candidate in may-2014 in their respective areas. They are given following mantra --- if we get 1% votes in may-2014 Loksabha , then we may win in may-2019 Loksabha. But if we dont put even a candidate in may-2014 Loksabha, then we will not win in may-2019 Loksabha." So all of them will put a Loksabha candidate in may-2014.

The MNC-paid-media is powerful because nationalist "leaders" did not create any media. Whatever money they got, they invested in real estate, gold etc but didnt create media. So in India, MNC-owners have huge media , while nationalist forces have near zero media.

Yagnasri
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 03 Dec 2013 07:20

If you see the trend fordstar is getting less and less seats and votes as the election comes near and time progress. Voters will take a call seeing all the things.


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