Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Arjun
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Arjun » 09 Dec 2013 13:05

So the BJP lost 3% to AAP, while the Secular / Left parties have lost 24%. And this enabled BJP to emerge as the largest.

Very clearly entry of AAP into other similar situations across the country is to be welcomed by the BJP !!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vina » 09 Dec 2013 13:08

johneeG wrote:---
NCP(or whoever) would be fools to ally with kongis after looking at the anti-kongi wave.

Oh. NCP has no other option whatsoever. They know that they are so unpopular in MH that if they go alone, they will be ground to dust and not a trace left of them forever. They will align with the Congress to survive.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby BhairavP » 09 Dec 2013 13:12

^They only have 7 MPs in MH anyway, and there is a positive undercurrent here, in the urban areas at least, for the BJP-led alliance.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby nachiket » 09 Dec 2013 13:26

vina wrote:NAC ding dongs are big picture guys who would have given Mukherjee a direction. That Prabab Mukherjee messed it up and made a dogs meal out of it by harking back to some make believe world kind of budget and a throw back to a command and control world is of his own making. He is from that era, his instincts and ideology and history are all from that , having lived and breathed that all his life. He is the classic old die hard Indira Gandhi groupie who did that "lurch to the left" and the attendant disastrous consequences in the 70s until 1992.

If Mukherjee was following NAC's "big picture", there is nothing he could have possibly done to avoid the catastrophic collapse of the economy. Anything that the NAC jholawallas come up with is set up to be an economic disaster by default.
Secondly, you cannot berate the NAC loonies without blaming the people who let them out of the psych ward and gave them keys to the treasury - viz. Sonia and Rahul Gandhi and their sycophants. I have never seen you actually blame them for what they've done and say that their time is up. You continue to beat around the bush by blaming Mukherjee.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby darshhan » 09 Dec 2013 13:32

vina wrote:JD-U won in Delhi ! I wonder which constituency has such a large concentration of Biharis there for JDU to make a mark in such dismal circumstance.


The JDU candidate who won is Shoaib Iqbal from Matia Mahal. He would have won anyway. It is a muslim dominated constituency (not Biharis)

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby subhamoy.das » 09 Dec 2013 13:43

yesterday congress spoke person ms. natrajan was hiding behind quantity of 11 chief ministers Vs BJPs 8 ( after yesterdays win ). What are the states were congress has chief ministers?
Last edited by subhamoy.das on 09 Dec 2013 13:44, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Virendra » 09 Dec 2013 13:43

Seelampur is another muslim dominated area where Congress fielded muslim candidate won. Though I remember that a Hindu candidate from BJP/AAP was leading somewhere in the middle of the counting.

The minority vote: 5 of 8 seats Cong won are in areas dominated by Muslims
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/the-m ... s/1205201/

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 09 Dec 2013 13:51

CNN IBN > BREAKING
JDU extends its supports to AAP, says Arvind Kejriwal should be Delhi CM

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dilbu » 09 Dec 2013 13:53

^^
With 1 seat?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 09 Dec 2013 13:54

^^

I forgot to add " for whatever it is worth ..."

Saurry saar

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vina » 09 Dec 2013 14:02

But really, some of the rhetoric that has been coming out of the Kangress has been unreal, bordering on the ridiculous. What is that Tamil Woman from MP (Some Natrajan) who Diggy Baba called "Tunch Maal"? The one supposed to Yuvraj's hand picked choice for whatever.

The magazines in all their adulation, said that she was so "down to earth" that she didn't know how to open a can of coke! So, the "Tunch Maal's" street cred in the Kangress world is to be unable to open a can of coke, why couldn't that woman open her eyes and read the instructions to do so I wonder . With messages and self selected toadies like this substituting for real substance, and multiply that by a 1000 and with the NAC jokers at the top, no wonder the Kangress is lost.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 09 Dec 2013 14:06

Congi CMs - haryana, uttaranchal, maharashtra, andhra, karnataka, kerala and assam comes to mind among the large states. (7 states)

B-team - orissa, UP, bihar, jharkhand , J&K (5 states)

C-team - west bengal (1 state)

its a gigantic footprint still, the forces of mordor occupy all parts of the forest from himalayas to indian ocean from china border to arabian sea.

they have a solid grip on the heartland via MH, AP, KA three huge states, plus Bteam operators in UP,Orissa,Jharkhand and Bihar is a country size all by itself.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 09 Dec 2013 14:09

I am for re-elections. This sit-out by BJP and especially AAP should be interesting. It will test AAP folks who won by small margins and have little hope of reelection in former BJP bastions once BJP get its act together. This also allows BJP to cull out non-performing "heavy weights" who could not be touched earlier.

Can someone with access to data figure out the BJP bastions lost by narrow margins to AAP that could be turned around in a re-election by getting rid of useless "heavy weights"?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sagar G » 09 Dec 2013 14:21


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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dilbu » 09 Dec 2013 14:26

Right place, right time: Kejriwal’s AAP will need more to convince
Inexperience and a surreal program are likely to be AAP’s Achilles heel. This is made more poignant by the tsunami of expectations that AAP’s populist plank has generated. The AAP does not have a magic wand to bring about changes of a structural nature. It will have to operate in an institutional environment that has not changed. This will impose constraints on it and will inevitably lead to disappointment amongst its supporters. Whether it will disappear as a force cannot be said with certainty. However what can be said is that it is likely to lose its lustre and appeal with the passage of time. This then means that the political space at the Centre can either be reclaimed by the Congress or alternatively the field will be open to the BJP. Voters weary of experimentation could vote for the ‘devil that is known’ , so to speak. In turn, this would again mean a bipolar contest in Delhi. What will eventually determine whether it is the BJP or the Congress that makes it to the top is the BJP’s performance in government and how the Congress re-invents itself.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Karan M » 09 Dec 2013 14:39

Singha wrote:note his facial expression yesterday...even TI after a 4-0 thrashing back in the old days wasnt so happy looking. the smug look of a guy who knows his job is safe, no matter how bad the outcomes :twisted:

Image


This pic shows it all.
1. On the left, bumbling kid who knows nothing about anything and has been put in charge of everything
2. On the right, imperious queen who is used to having everything going her way, and is upset that the indian public apparently have a mind of their own

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 09 Dec 2013 14:43

AAP movements genuine supporters should be asking the cynical strategist why the historic mandate given to AAP is not being used to implement AAP's promises when the BJP has stepped aside and the Congress and JDU have offered support in government formation.

Such a though process should be encouraged in interactions with AAP supporters hoping to inject an element of doubt about the AAP leaders.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Karan M » 09 Dec 2013 14:46

Dilbu wrote:Pawar got it right with NAC's policies but I see his accusation as crying over spilt milk onlee as there was no other idea coming forth within CON camp. Situation and social structure in India have changed a lot since IG's time. IG was living off Nehru's charm and there was TINA wave in favour of CON in those decades. You will fall flatter than how RG has fallen now if you try those antics in this decade. People are seeing good governance making a difference in the lives of people else where in the country and they want equal opportunity and not dole handed out to them. The blame should fairly and squarely be placed at SG & Rg's feet.


in middle class, people are traveling. tv and media show foreign countries as well. its no longer easy for politicos to justify their pathetic development record. homus INC politicus indicus has been a pathetic underperformer by far and most sensible folks realize it.
in more economically disadvantaged classes, the contrast between INC and BJP is also there in terms of development.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 09 Dec 2013 14:51

CNN IBN BREAKING >
6 Seemandhra Congress MPs give notice of no confidence motion against UPA

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Karan M » 09 Dec 2013 14:51

Hard hitting and cogent analysis by the guy at mediacrooks.

http://www.mediacrooks.com/2013/12/poll ... qWSHeL7B50

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 09 Dec 2013 14:55

Congress didn't back me as much as it should have: Sheila
New Delhi: A day after the Congress government of Sheila Dikshit was decimated in Delhi Assembly elections by the BJP and AAP, the outgoing Chief Minister on Monday blamed the party for massive lass. "I didn't get the support from the party which I should have. The party and the government went separate ways and that was a problem. There should have been more cohesion," Sheila

<snip>

Her reaction comes hours after Congress put the blame on her for the poor show in Delhi where the AAP delivered a massive blow to the party bagging the space of the main opposition as the BJP took a slender lead and emerge as the single largest party with 32 seats in 70-member Assembly.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby kmkraoind » 09 Dec 2013 14:56

pankajs wrote:CNN IBN BREAKING >
6 Seemandhra Congress MPs give notice of no confidence motion against UPA


Probably a birthday gift to Sonia Gandhi (initially all Cong mercenariesmachinery wanted to create Telangana on Dec 9th as a gift to Sonia Gandhi.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Manu » 09 Dec 2013 15:03

Singha wrote:Congi CMs - haryana, uttaranchal, maharashtra, andhra, karnataka, kerala and assam comes to mind among the large states. (7 states)

B-team - orissa, UP, bihar, jharkhand , J&K (5 states)

C-team - west bengal (1 state)

its a gigantic footprint still, the forces of mordor occupy all parts of the forest from himalayas to indian ocean from china border to arabian sea.

they have a solid grip on the heartland via MH, AP, KA three huge states, plus Bteam operators in UP,Orissa,Jharkhand and Bihar is a country size all by itself.


This was the Count on Saturday Night:
N. Kiran Kumar Reddy - Andhra Pradesh
Nabam Tuki - Arunachal Pradesh
Tarun Gogoi - Assam
Sheila Dikshit - Delhi
Bhupinder Singh Hooda - Haryana
Virbhadra Singh - Himachal Pradesh
Siddaramaiah - Karnataka
Oommen Chandy - Kerala
Prithviraj Chavan - Maharashtra
Okram Singh - Manipur
Mukul Sangma - Meghalaya
Pu Lalthanhawla - Mizoram
Ashok Gehlot - Rajasthan
Vijay Bahuguna - Uttarakhand

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Karan M » 09 Dec 2013 15:05

Narendra Modi's blog:The Final Tally- BJP has won 408 out of 589 seats, which is near 70% of the total seats. Phenomenal! Congress shrunk - only 21% of seats. This is a wonderful beginning towards success in our Mission272+ & for fulfilling the dream of a Congress Mukt Bharat.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 09 Dec 2013 15:07

JDU has extended unconditional support to AAP. Hopefully CON too extends the same soon. AAP elects are to meet @ 6 pm today evening where the AAP high command's decision will be conveyed.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 09 Dec 2013 15:08

Delhi deadlock: Jaitley says, Congress should lend outside support to AAP in Delhi
New Delhi: Senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley today held the Aam Aadmi Party responsible for the deadlock in government formation in Delhi, alleging that the AAP is "leading people up the garden path."

Speaking to a news channel, Jaitley said, the best way could be that the AAP comes forward to form a government with outside support from the Congress.

About his own party, the Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha said, BJP would neither take nor offer support to either the AAP or the Congress, and would prefer to sit in the Opposition.

"There are two options left: first repolarizing the parties which fought the elections, and secondly Congress should come forward to provide outside support to the AAP.

"The third option is the resort to Constitutional mechanism", said Jaitley.

The senior BJP leader alleged, the strategy of AAP seems to be to refrain from taking responsibility of running a government. "They are leading the people up the garden path, but are not ready to accept responsibility", he added.

"The kind of exaggerated and unimplementable promises made by a non-conventional party like the AAP in Delhi, make it clear that once you are in the government, you can't implement your promises. They are leading the people up the garden path, because they are a confrontationist party, not a responsible party", said Jaitley.

It is time that AAP step up to the plate and deliver on its promises an not run away. It is time AAP show the country its model of good governance.
Last edited by pankajs on 09 Dec 2013 15:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dilbu » 09 Dec 2013 15:12

The attack on AAP from BJP has begun.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 09 Dec 2013 15:13

^^Very relieved to see lotus doing what I was hoping they would - not jump to stake claim on govt formation with inadequate mandate.

Better to bait the AAP into exhausting its energies tied up with things governmental and administrative rather than plot on how to spoil seats in Bangalore and mumbai in the LS polls...

My guess is, even with the most deferential and effusive media praise, their administrative incompetence will expose itself inside of the 5 months remaining for the LS polls...

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Adrija » 09 Dec 2013 15:14

Can someone with access to data figure out the BJP bastions lost by narrow margins to AAP that could be turned around in a re-election by getting rid of useless "heavy weights"?


Have made a table of the constituencies where BJP came # 2 (unable to past even as a picture; BRadmins, any solutions?), but here are the main takeaways:

1. Came # 2 in 30 constituencies
2. Was the 2008 incumbent in 12 of those (worryingly high figure IMHO)
3. In 4 of these, the losing margin was less than 1000 votes (Delhi Cantt 355, Vikaspuri 405, Sangam Vihar 777, Sadar Bazar 796)
4. of the 30 losses, 23 were to AAP, 6 to Cong I, and 1 to Independent
5. Of its 12 losses, 11 were to AAP, and 1 to the Independent (Rambir Shokeen, BJP rebel)

Hope this helps

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 09 Dec 2013 15:15

Even a re-election scenario will force AAP to try protecting its gains in Delhi vs spending its energies else where.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 09 Dec 2013 15:20

Adrija wrote:
Can someone with access to data figure out the BJP bastions lost by narrow margins to AAP that could be turned around in a re-election by getting rid of useless "heavy weights"?


Have made a table of the constituencies where BJP came # 2 (unable to past even as a picture; BRadmins, any solutions?), but here are the main takeaways:

1. Came # 2 in 30 constituencies
2. Was the 2008 incumbent in 12 of those (worryingly high figure IMHO)
3. In 4 of these, the losing margin was less than 1000 votes (Delhi Cantt 355, Vikaspuri 405, Sangam Vihar 777, Sadar Bazar 796)
4. of the 30 losses, 23 were to AAP, 6 to Cong I, and 1 to Independent
5. Of its 12 losses, 11 were to AAP, and 1 to the Independent (Rambir Shokeen, BJP rebel)

Hope this helps

Thank you saar .. If I may trouble you again, Can you provide full details of the 12 seats mentioned in point 2.?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dilbu » 09 Dec 2013 15:22

After Congress walloping in states, Nitish Kumar decides against alliance
Earlier this year, he ended a 17-year alliance with the BJP, and attributed the break-up to the party's decision to elevate Mr Modi to top man.

The outcome of the state elections has also reportedly convinced the Bihar Chief Minister to rule out an alliance with the Congress for the general elections.

Nitish is hoping for turd front.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Adrija » 09 Dec 2013 15:25

If I may trouble you again, Can you provide full details of the 12 seats mentioned in point 2.?


Pankajs babu, here is the list of 12:

1. Burari
2. Delhi Cantt
3. Greater Kailash
4. Hari Nagar (SAD was #2 in 2013, BJP winner in 2008)
5. Karol Bagh
6. Mundka
7. Rohini
8. Sangam Vihar
9. Shakur Basti
10. Shalimar Bagh
11. Tilak Nagar
12. Trilokpuri

Not sure if these are the "full details" you are looking for, but unable to post the table (formatting is getting all screwed up), let me know what else you need........

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Nitesh » 09 Dec 2013 15:29

wow this is great:
www.indiatvnews.com/politics/national/d ... 13782.html

hope AAP bites the bullet with Congress support, so BJP can take the anti congress space as was being suggested here

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 09 Dec 2013 15:30

Adrija wrote:Not sure if these are the "full details" you are looking for, but unable to post the table (formatting is getting all screwed up), let me know what else you need........

Thank you again saar for all the trouble. I was hoping for the losing margins but with the above I can easily find it on the EC website. Do not trouble yourself on my account any further and Thank you again.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Comer » 09 Dec 2013 15:33

pankajs wrote:AAP movements genuine supporters should be asking the cynical strategist why the historic mandate given to AAP is not being used to implement AAP's promises when the BJP has stepped aside and the Congress and JDU have offered support in government formation.

Such a though process should be encouraged in interactions with AAP supporters hoping to inject an element of doubt about the AAP leaders.

Doing it IRL. In the morning the folks were gungho about the win etc. By lunch time, the AAP supporters were squirming a little offering weak excuses for their reluctance.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 09 Dec 2013 15:36

AAP is running away from showing its model of good governance when it was given the opportunity by Aam Admi.
AAP is running away from implementing its policies when it was given the opportunity by Aam Admi.
AAP is running away from being the change that it talked about for the last 2 years even when it was given the opportunity by Aam Admi.
etc. etc

Keep emphasizing running away , historic mandate, responsibility and Aam Admi's mandate for change
Last edited by pankajs on 09 Dec 2013 15:39, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Adrija » 09 Dec 2013 15:36

I was hoping for the losing margins


here you go

1. Burari 10,351
2. Delhi Cantt 355
3. Greater Kailash 10,351
4. Hari Nagar 8,876
5. Karol Bagh 1,750
6. Mundka 7,134
7. Rohini 1,872
8. Sangam Vihar 777
9. Shakur Basti 7,062
10. Shalimar Bagh 10,651
11. Tilak Nagar 2,088
12. Trilokpuri 17,685

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krishnan » 09 Dec 2013 15:39

Dilbu wrote:After Congress walloping in states, Nitish Kumar decides against alliance
Earlier this year, he ended a 17-year alliance with the BJP, and attributed the break-up to the party's decision to elevate Mr Modi to top man.

The outcome of the state elections has also reportedly convinced the Bihar Chief Minister to rule out an alliance with the Congress for the general elections.

Nitish is hoping for turd front.


the way other parties performed , even that is in question , they hardly won anything, in fact BSP lost 27 seats it contested in delhi

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 09 Dec 2013 15:40

Adrija wrote:
I was hoping for the losing margins

here you go

Thank you


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