Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

chetak
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby chetak » 12 Dec 2013 11:00

pankajs wrote:Pressure grows on Obama administration to reach out to Modi
WASHINGTON: A prominent American analyst and veteran South Asia hand has aligned with the growing sentiment in Washington DC that the US administration should engage the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, regardless of the outcome of elections in India.

In a brief on the BJP's strong showing in the just concluded assembly polls, Teresita Schaffer, a former state department mandarin, policy wonk, and a senior fellow at Brookings Institutions, says while it is too early to forecast the outcome of the 2014 polls, "the US cannot afford to continue restricting its contacts with a politician of Modi's importance to a relatively low level."

Pointing out that the US had limited its official contact with Modi "even after ambassadors of other major powers had opened dialogues with him", Schaffer said normal US practice is to maintain contact across the political spectrum, unless there is some overwhelming reason not to — members of listed terrorist organizations, for example. Only the US consul general in Mumbai, whose consular jurisdiction includes Gujarat, has met Modi so far.

"Controversy about the nature and level of contacts with opposition figures is not unusual in the diplomatic world," Schaffer, a longtime South Asia expert, writes, adding, with respect to Modi, that "the longer a self-imposed ban remains in place, the more complicated and embarrassing it is to change it."

Schaffer's reasoning mirrors the growing sentiment on the Hill where some lawmakers are pressing the administration to reach out to Modi.

Eni Faleomavega, a ranking House member of the South Asia subcommittee recently called on the Obama administration to "shift its attitude and engage in dialogue with Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, just as the European Union and the UK are doing, and many other nations around the world.'' "Chief minister Modi is a democratically elected leader and has been elected 3 times by the majority of some 60 million constituents. He may well be India's next Prime Minister and Resolutions like H.R 417 (which praises the administration for banning Modi) do little to help strengthen US-India relations," says Faleomavega.

Pillorying the state department for succumbing to pressure from anti-Modi lobbies, he went as far as suggesting "should chief minister Narendra Modi become India's next Prime Minister, he should decline a visit to the United States unless the State Department takes a stand now and informs him in advance of whether or not a visa would be granted should he apply."

Schaffer and others in the thinktank community steer clear of the politics behind Foggy Bottom's no-contact policy, but there is a growing feeling that the state department is taking an unreasonably cussed stand on the issue. On their part, US officials say in private conversations that any decision on Modi at this point will add the controversy and will be instantly politicized in India, and they would rather have a status quo. In any case, they have indicated, if Modi does become Prime Minister, the visa ban will become infructuous because heads of government are entitled to diplomatic privileges.

The UPA government has also steered clear of the issue. On Tuesday, India's foreign secretary Sujatha Singh held talks with a state department team led by secretary of state John Kerry with the conversation centering mainly on regional issues, including the US drawdown from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

Modi should make the countries that have boycotted him sweat.



I am hearing that only NaMo's lower level minions interact with the official US machinery in India. He does not himself talk with or even receive any of the US embassy or consulate guys unlike with other consular or diplomatic representatives in India.

US trade delegations are another matter and he interacts personally with them all.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 12 Dec 2013 11:07

^^Regardless of what happens, I think it very fortuitous indeed that NM has so far been (by accident or design) kept away from pernicious US influence. After seeing how much MMS has bent and crawled in favor of US interests (FDI retail being one example, the Iran vote being another) it is so nice to have a leader who is uninfluenced by western worldviews (in the guise of propriety, values, precedent, established world order etc) and who has only Indian interests first and foremost. Jiyo NaMo saar.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby chetak » 12 Dec 2013 11:18

Hari Seldon wrote:^^Regardless of what happens, I think it very fortuitous indeed that NM has so far been (by accident or design) kept away from pernicious US influence. After seeing how much MMS has bent and crawled in favor of US interests (FDI retail being one example, the Iran vote being another) it is so nice to have a leader who is uninfluenced by western worldviews (in the guise of propriety, values, precedent, established world order etc) and who has only Indian interests first and foremost. Jiyo NaMo saar.


There is a theory that silent sam was a IMF plant during the PVNR days, like a desi version of the manchurian candidate onlee......

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 12 Dec 2013 11:29

^^
While it is impossible to prove that he was a plant .. His performance does bear out the facts .. When India should have been spending building Infra, etc. we are planning huge spending on dole .. What better way to keep a country forever in servitude!

US should be proud of the achievement of the good Doctor .. and to top it all now sell the country bit by bit to multinationals in the name of growth and jobs.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Karan M » 12 Dec 2013 11:48

pankajs wrote:[url=http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Pressure-grows-on-Obama-administration-to-reach-out-to-Modi/articleshow/27231545.cms]
Modi should make the countries that have boycotted him sweat. His first travel to any country should be on the Blue passport on visitors visa. Is this possible for a PM to reject a diplomatic passport and opt for the ordinary blue one? Let protocols be dammed and force other countries to deal with it.


He should visit Asian countries first along with Russia and let these guys sweat. MMS has bent over backwards to be good nice boy ("colonialism was good") with UK and of course, he overdid the Khan alignment by far .

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby chetak » 12 Dec 2013 11:54

Karan M wrote:
pankajs wrote:[url=http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Pressure-grows-on-Obama-administration-to-reach-out-to-Modi/articleshow/27231545.cms]
Modi should make the countries that have boycotted him sweat. His first travel to any country should be on the Blue passport on visitors visa. Is this possible for a PM to reject a diplomatic passport and opt for the ordinary blue one? Let protocols be dammed and force other countries to deal with it.


He should visit Asian countries first along with Russia and let these guys sweat. MMS has bent over backwards to be good nice boy ("colonialism was good") with UK and of course, he overdid the Khan alignment by far .


The crafty chap may be hedging his bets.

If the nobel doesn't materialize, the queens honor's list is always there.

Lord Manmohan of Racecourse??

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 12 Dec 2013 12:13

Hari Seldon wrote:^^Regardless of what happens, I think it very fortuitous indeed that NM has so far been (by accident or design) kept away from pernicious US influence. After seeing how much MMS has bent and crawled in favor of US interests (FDI retail being one example, the Iran vote being another) it is so nice to have a leader who is uninfluenced by western worldviews (in the guise of propriety, values, precedent, established world order etc) and who has only Indian interests first and foremost. Jiyo NaMo saar.

I agree. I would hope he learns the correct lesson and will not be swayed after they try to suck up to him once he is the PM. And the fact is that US cannot be ignored and has to be dealt with extreme caution. He will need a lot of luck too for formidable forces are aligned against him and will not vanish overnight once he becomes the PM and may infact become more dangerous.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Neela » 12 Dec 2013 13:17

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 48m

For #AAPSuckers| @SriSriSpeaks: "The dog chases a car, but once catching up ..it doesnt know what to do" LOL! Thats the status of AAP today

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Karan M » 12 Dec 2013 14:21

chetak wrote:
Karan M wrote:He should visit Asian countries first along with Russia and let these guys sweat. MMS has bent over backwards to be good nice boy ("colonialism was good") with UK and of course, he overdid the Khan alignment by far .


The crafty chap may be hedging his bets.

If the nobel doesn't materialize, the queens honor's list is always there.

Lord Manmohan of Racecourse??


Sirji as i mentioned a few times before, this guy is arguably the worst PM we've ever had, even including other worthies like Shri Gujral who occupied that seat. His WKKism was another issue. He ingratiated himself with those more powerful than himself, while ignoring those whom he should actually serve.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rahul Mehta » 12 Dec 2013 14:40

matrimc wrote:Yeah, in fact I posed the same question in a different way to Pranav and others who had been saying "EVM manipulation" at the drop of a hat. Now that BJP had won in the state elections, can we have some explanation of why EVMs were not manipulated by Cong(I)?


CIA uses EVM magic ONLY in Loksabha polls and NOT in Assembly.

Assembly polls are not worth the dishonesty.

Also EVM is NOT Cong vs BJP. CIA uses EVM to add its 15% votes to candidates that is favorable to MNC-owners and Missionaries. CIA doesnt get into Congress vs BJP mess.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 12 Dec 2013 14:46

Jaipur: Poll results show voters completely rejected Congress's social engineering & flagship schemes

Even after getting a sound drubbing in the Assembly elections, problems are not over for the Congress party. At a time when the parliamentary elections are just a few months away, the recent results of Assembly elections are no less than a nightmare for party.

The results are also shocking for the Congress that it not only rejected the social engineering done by the party but also the ambitious flagship schemes targeting minority, economically weaker sections and schedules caste and schedule tribes. Of 59 reserved seats in Rajasthan party could manage to get just four seats.

Out of 34 seats reserved in SC category, Congress failed to get even one seat. Similarly out of 25 ST seats in the state, party could get only four. The BJP won 32 SC seats while one seat each was bagged by NPP and Zamindara Party.

In tribal areas, 18 seats went to the BJP. Some Congress leaders feel that party never took demands of ST and SCs seriously and relied on the flagship schemes. It was just like patient being given dose on doctors’ will, ignoring the real problems.

“Retaining the traditional vote bank will be the biggest challenge ahead of general election.

Results of elections can be taken in any sense. But one thing has to be agreed upon that damage was massive that traditional voters too left Congress alone,” said a PCC office-bearer.

Same goes with other castes including minority community. As many as 16 candidates belonging to minority community and none could win. On contrary the BJP fielded just three candidates, of which two leaders that include Habib-ur-Rahaman from Nagaur and Yonus Khan from Deedwana won.

Even Jat votes were polled one-sided which is evident from the fact that out of 31 Jat candidates, 23 won. Senior leaders are of the view that it was not Modi wave in the community but it was anti-Congress feeling that worked as undercurrent. Jats have been blaming that some senior Congress leaders for wiping out their leadership from Rajasthan.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby IndraD » 12 Dec 2013 14:48

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/in-u ... 30794.html

if comments by (most of the)readers are any clue people are fast getting disillusioned of AAP and also recognizing media as arm of congress

Most aap candidates of Delhi qualification are Metric, puc, 8th pass. check it if you not believe: are they become mp , oh My god: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ashashi » 12 Dec 2013 16:37

Rahul Mehta wrote:Also EVM is NOT Cong vs BJP. CIA uses EVM to add its 15% votes to candidates that is favorable to MNC-owners and Missionaries. CIA doesnt get into Congress vs BJP mess.


What is the source of your information?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Supratik » 12 Dec 2013 16:59

Vasundhara's next agenda should be to emulate NM, SSC, RS and turn RJ into a saffron state with a positive program.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rahul Mehta » 12 Dec 2013 17:02

Rahul Mehta: Also EVM is NOT Cong vs BJP. CIA uses EVM to add its 15% votes to candidates that is favorable to MNC-owners and Missionaries. CIA doesnt get into Congress vs BJP mess.

ashashi : What is the source of your information?


Source ? :rotfl:

Here is the source : viewtopic.php?f=24&t=6494&start=7600#p1556751 :mrgreen:


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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 12 Dec 2013 17:05

Twitterati slam AAP for not forming Delhi govt, party terms critics as trolls on Facebook
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has made a dazzling debut in the Delhi Assembly elections, is facing a lot of flak for refraining from going ahead with government formation. While a section of twitterati feels that allying with any party would counter its basic principle, another is of the opinion that once AAP has chosen to be a part of the system, it should now use this opportunity to govern and put its policies into practice, even if that requires taking support from other political parties.

Reacting to the online criticism, the party posted a cartoon on its Facebook page, where it mentioned its critics as trolls. The cartoon also showed two politicians – one saying they had designed this pressure on AAP while the other saying that they won't let AAP make any law as they had the numbers to counter any move by Arvind Kejriwal's party.

Lets hope ordinary citizens of the country see the real agenda of AAP.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby kapilrdave » 12 Dec 2013 17:25

Rahul Mehta wrote:Also EVM is NOT Cong vs BJP. CIA uses EVM to add its 15% votes to candidates that is favorable to MNC-owners and Missionaries. CIA doesnt get into Congress vs BJP mess.


Isn't it a good news for BJP? Just promise moons to MNCs for now and dump them after elections. By next election there is going to be paper receipt anyways!!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby chaanakya » 12 Dec 2013 17:30

RG favours supporting AAP from outside. Lets see if AAP takes up the offer from him and forms the govt in Delhi to give clean govt and deliver in 100 days its manifesto promises.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SandeepA » 12 Dec 2013 17:47

Whats with Khangress favouring Gay sex? Is there an agenda? The BJP seems clearly against this.

Rahul speaks up AGAINST SC verdict on gay sex

Rahul speaks up AGAINST SC verdict on gay sex: Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi has spoken up against the Supreme Court's controversial verdict on upholding Section 377, which criminalises homosexuality.

"Sexual preference is a matter of personal choice. It's an individual's choice, it (the choice) should be left to them. This country is known for its freedom of expression," said Gandhi, adding that he agreed with the Delhi high court's decision in 2009, which had declared Section 377 unconstitutional.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 12 Dec 2013 17:57

Guess whom AAP really damaged: Not Cong, but Mayawati
Whose vote did the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) really dent in the assembly vote last week? You must be tempted to say Congress more and BJP a little less, looking at the seat count. But you would be only partly right. While it is true that the Congress was crushed, with only eight seats to show for its efforts, the real message is in the vote share. AAP dented both Congress and BJP, and according to some estimates, for every one voter the BJP lost to AAP, the Congress lost six. In terms of vote share, the Congress vote fell from 40.31 percent in 2008 to 24.55 percent in 2013 – it lost two-fifths of its previous vote share. The BJP lost less, from 36.84 percent in 2008 to 33.07 percent this year, a drop by a tenth from its share five years ago.

AAP’s vote share this time was 29.49 percent, according to preliminary computations. From all accounts, Muslims voted in significant numbers for AAP, which again shows that identity politics is fraying at the edges in cities. (Read this Economic Times report to get a sense of what happened in Delhi). Parties cannot win the Muslim vote purely by peddling scare stories about Narendra Modi. This is one reason why the Congress was mauled more by the AAP, and the BJP far less than that. But guess who got the worst shellacking? Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The BSP vote share, reckoned to be built of strong Dalit support, dwindled from 14.05 percent in 2008 to just 5.35 percent. That’s a steep three-fifths fall – more than 60 percent less than five years ago. This tells us one simple thing: in the urban centres at least, caste identities may count for less than class. Babasaheb Ambedkar was right. The town provides escape from caste – and unfortunately it is an Ambedkarite party, the BSP, that is yet to learn the lesson. Clearly, the message to Mayawati is the strongest. Her Uttar Pradesh Dalit vote may not be about to evaporate, for caste consciousness is probably stronger outside the metros, but the warning signals are clear. Also for Mulayam Singh, who is similarly banking on the Yadav and Muslim vote to give him many MPs - and a shot at power in Delhi if there is a hopelessly hung house.
.
Seems 10%, 1/3 of ~ 30% polled by AAP, has come directly from Maya khata ..

<Speculation> Perhaps another 10% from Muslims and the remaining 10% from yuppies </Speculation>


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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby merlin » 12 Dec 2013 18:22

Rudradev wrote:Merlin, Im not at all sure that "youth" will be re-energized to vote for AAP a second time around.

Youth voters are energetic, but highly impressionable, impatient and most of all very very fickle. Hell, in my own college days I went from being a fervent SS-BJP supporter to a far leftist and then all the way back around, 360 degrees in 3 short years! It was a time to experiment with new ideas, dominated by the urge try out new solutions more than anything else.

And my experience was way back in the 90s! Today's youth, brought up in the age of 24-7 news, internet, Twitter and consumerism are 100 times more ADHD, swinging back and forth at a far higher frequency than I ever did. In a Delhi repoll AAP will no longer be the New Story. For its appeal to the youth voter, at least, this will be its greatest liability.


I would wager they still will be energized because disenchantment has not set in yet. Case in point - how long it took for disenchantment with the Congress to show effect in elections?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Comer » 12 Dec 2013 18:57

SandeepA wrote:Whats with Khangress favouring Gay sex? Is there an agenda? The BJP seems clearly against this

This is probably one of the few times RG has opened his mouth without sounding like a jackass. Considering their traditional vote banks frown upon this it is pleasantly surprising that they have taken this position. I think Piyush Goal has spoken out against 377 in his personal capacity. I wish more had spoken but I guess BJP doesn't consider this as an hot button issue or don't want to ruffle feathers.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Pranav » 12 Dec 2013 19:18

matrimc wrote:
IndraD wrote:I asked earlier regarding EVM manipulation which was often cited as reason for BJP failure , any further review/comment on issue?


Yeah, in fact I posed the same question in a different way to Pranav and others who had been saying "EVM manipulation" at the drop of a hat. Now that BJP had won in the state elections, can we have some explanation of why EVMs were not manipulated by Cong(I)?


Question to me? Can you prove your claim that EVMs were not manipulated?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Paul » 12 Dec 2013 19:22

^^^NM needs to be careful as he is being now being and not shoot off his mouth on the gay issue.

There are entrenched gay lobbies in the western lobbies and this issue will give them more fodder to target the BJP, one more handle to deny visa etc., not that NM cares. However this is not a key issue for BJP to take a stand on, indian voters do not care about gay issues....hence do as BJP is doing...eat chai biscui,discuss to death in parliamentary board meetings, drag it out for as long as possible and this will go away sooner or later.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Pranav » 12 Dec 2013 19:26

kapilrdave wrote:Isn't it a good news for BJP? Just promise moons to MNCs for now and dump them after elections. By next election there is going to be paper receipt anyways!!


Unfortunately people have very short attention spans - there will be no paper trail in EVMs for 2014 except on very small scale.

However there is a new petition in the SC to force the ECI to use paper ballots where it cannot use EVMs with paper trail - see http://www.ttfindia.org . The first hearing is on 17th December.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby KLP Dubey » 12 Dec 2013 19:32

Mr Modi and the party should declare that they will launch an initiative to review and repeal all outdated, "Victorian"/British-era laws that have no relevance currently. The 377 issue will dealt with in this context. I agree that it is a stupid law and is against the Indian ethos, but there is no need to get into detailed discussions of who should be "allowed" to do it with whom when the answer is obvious.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Chandragupta » 12 Dec 2013 19:48

Kumar Vishwas is going after Rahul Gandhi. Why? I am confused.

They are attacking RG & calling him 'Shehzada' and talking of ending the dynasty. This is NaMo speak. Are they trying to take NaMo's space? It seems they are running a high tension drama :

1. AAP goes violently vocal against Gandhis
2. The MSM gives it prime time slot and chafes a little off the Gandhis, unlike the outrage when Modi commented on the same
3. AAP - Dynasty battle is played up till LS 2014 drowning all Modi speeches & rallies and AAP is showcased as the true anti-Congress alternative going for the jugular
4. AAP is defeated by SG & RG in their own constituencies but is able to salvage 10-15 urban LS seats riding on anti-dynasty wave and dents another 10-15 LS seats of the BJP by taking away from NaMo's original anti-dynasty stand
5. Sonia Gandhi retires from Politics, Rahul Gandhi 'retires' from Lok Sabha and takes yup the mantle of 'organization' and 'sanghathan' i.e. Youth Congress & NSUI and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is elevated to the position of the President of INC
6. AK is made PM of India with Congress & secular party support; denying BJP which still is the single largest party (160-170 LS seats)
7. In 2-3 years, AK fails miserably, India goes into deeper mess; Priyanka Gandhi takes away INC support and calls for re-election. Modi is 65 years of age, MSM builds it as the battle of young Indira Gandhi's second coming vs an old & divided BJP house (MSM playing Raman Singh, SSC, Modi & SS against each other)
8. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra leads INC to 180+ LS seats and becomes the Prime Minister of India

This is the worst case scenario. FWIW.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 12 Dec 2013 20:00

Chandragupta wrote:They are attacking RG & calling him 'Shehzada' and talking of ending the dynasty. This is NaMo speak. Are they trying to take NaMo's space? It seems they are running a high tension drama :


If you follow in other states Congress-sponsored third parties do those exactly same things. If opposition does jumping jacks third party does the same. If BJP explains a scheme, third party will counter it right there to diffuse the effect of the scheme on voting public. Congress goal is to get BJP bogged down by the third party so Congress doesn't have to oppose BJP in all aspects.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Paul » 12 Dec 2013 20:06

^^^Harshvardhan refused to form Govt in Delhi.

Will it bog the AAP down in Delhi forcing to them to keep their focus on the next round rajdhani elections?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 12 Dec 2013 20:17

Re the EVM magic issue: IMVVJO, if EVMs can be manipulated then they will be. Rest assured. Too much at stake for one to forgo an oppty like that...

Now the Q then turns to "are the EVMs temperable?" Well, there's evidence out there to suggest perhaps they are.... but who knows, hey?

IN any case, why take a chance with something like this?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RoyG » 12 Dec 2013 20:19

Paul wrote:^^^Harshvardhan refused to form Govt in Delhi.

Will it bog the AAP down in Delhi forcing to them to keep their focus on the next round rajdhani elections?


Good strategy. It's going to put a lot of pressure on AAP to ally with Congress.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Pratyush » 12 Dec 2013 20:22

It wont bog down the AAP in delhi. For a single reason, that it is a professional based party and will be use the support of volunteers, they can be sold on the idealism of the youth and function across the nation, while spoiling the game in delhi.

The only hope lies in the voter recognising the game and defeating the AAP. BJP on its own cant beat such a party.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 12 Dec 2013 22:43

Chandragupta wrote:Kumar Vishwas is going after Rahul Gandhi. Why? I am confused.

They are attacking RG & calling him 'Shehzada' and talking of ending the dynasty. This is NaMo speak. Are they trying to take NaMo's space? It seems they are running a high tension drama


This is exactly the same strategy that British used to prop up Naram Dal and push out the Garam Dal!

This is #SenatorPalpatine101!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 12 Dec 2013 22:54

Pranav wrote:Question to me? Can you prove your claim that EVMs were not manipulated?

I am not claiming either way so there is nothing to prove.

What is well known is that certain EVM technologies can be defeated. That doesn't mean that they had been manipulated whether Cong(I) won or BJP.

If your claim is all Cong(I) wins are due to EVM manipulation but none of the BJP ones are, then it so extraordinary a claim that a proof of that can severely damage Cong(I) 2014 LS elections - the party may even be barred from contesting.

So until such a proof is forthcoming I will continue to disbelieve in such a hypothesis.
Last edited by Vayutuvan on 13 Dec 2013 02:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 12 Dec 2013 22:58

Hari Seldon wrote:IN any case, why take a chance with something like this?

Not much can be done (though not saying BJP/Modi should not try). Why even manipulate EVMs? The incumbents simply stay in power (like IG did).

Rudradev
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rudradev » 13 Dec 2013 01:15

There is a massive MSM campaign to project Kejriwal and AAP as some sort of "unprecedented phenomenon". Clearly this is driven by the need to create a "New Story" that will occupy the imaginations of youthful voters by displacing what has been the "New Story" for a few months now-- NaMo as BJP PM candidate. NaMo has kept that wave going through the four state elections, and now there is a concerted effort by the MSM to dampen it and replace NaMo with Kejriwal at national centre stage.

Fine. But how true is the contention that Kejriwal is an "unprecedented" phenomenon? Honestly, the whole AAP fuss reminds me very much of something that happened when I was still in high school... the Bofors Rebellion of VP Singh against the Rajiv Gandhi establishment. Like VPS, AK successfully projects himself as an impeccably honest crusader against corruption. Like the Jan Morcha, AAP has come together around this English-educated leader, who himself has little or no mass base outside urban India (that's being generous... at present, AK's base doesn't seem much wider than Delhi.)

The comparison is instructive for two reasons. Firstly, in 89-90, various other non-Congress regional leaders who had once ridden under the JP and Ram Manohar Lohia banners drew themselves together to form a "third front" around the VP Singh phenomenon... including Mulayam Singh, Laloo, Chandra Shekhar, Deve Gowda, Devi Lal and others. We are seeing this happen again, with Nitish Kumar's eagerness to claim space on the AAP bandwagon as a means of building a transregional alliance in which people like him would hold the keys to power.

The second interesting point of comparison is that VP Singh's government failed completely to govern... as was made disastrously obvious by the Mandal agitation within a year of his PM-ship. VP Singh cut a formidable figure as a "crusader against corruption", but soon showed himself miserably lacking in the skills required to run a country. AAP is terrified that it will now have to implement the flighty notions it peddled to impressionable voters in its manifesto, by running a minority government in Delhi. Chances are good that they will fail even sooner, and more spectacularly, than VP Singh did. HOWEVER-- the regional satraps who surrounded VP Singh did not go down with his ship. Many of them formed political parties that went on to become the establishment in their respective regions of the country, including the SP, RJD, JD(U), JD(S) and so on... and the rise of these parties to serious power-brokers in regional politics came invariably at the cost of the Congress, who had dominated many of those regions virtually unchallenged before the rise of VP Singh.

Two things, therefore, stand out very clearly:

1) "Third Front" leaders like Mulayam, Nitish Kumar and others realize that their only chance at forming a national government lies in having a figurehead Emperor to whom they can play Daimyo... a character like 1989's VP Singh, or today's Kejriwal, who has captured the imagination of the middle-class urban public by espousing an anti-establishment stance that takes advantage of rising public anger against the incumbent Congress. Furthermore, the Emperor has little mass base of his own outside the city, and will depend on the numbers raised by these Third Front Daimyos to keep him in power; the Emperor also has little idea how to actually run a government, so he will be heavily influenced by the demands and suggestions of the Daimyos in formulating policy. These policies, of course, will be to the vast benefit of the Daimyos who hitch themselves to the Emperor's bandwagon... whether in terms of straighforward handouts (special status for Bihar), caste-bank pandering (Mandal etc.) or other corrupt practices. The end result of this kind of governance will be to discredit the Emperor... Kejriwal will fall from PMship even more quickly than VP Singh when people see what he is about... but the damage will have been done, and the Daimyos will have strengthened themselves enormously, by the time the government falls.

2) The Congress is stupid if it thinks it can use the propping up Kejriwal types to thwart the BJP. After the last time this happened-- the rise of VP Singh-- Congress was so damaged that it never quite recovered its pre-1989 stature as a national party. If it happens again with Kejriwal, the Congress will lose out even more badly, and will take even longer to recover if indeed it ever recovers at all. Even if Kejriwal's emergence as the "New Story" seems to dampen the advance of the Modi wave for the time being... the fuss won't last longer than a few months of AAP (non) governance in Delhi. With shrewd media management the BJP could actually turn the story around and make it an asset, using it to demonstrate the futility of elevating anti-corruption crusaders to the status of figurehead Emperor. They could contrast Kejriwal's inevitable three-month failure with the 144-month success of Narenda Modi... who actually has earned a mass base of his own and provided better governance for his region than anyone else in the country.

The people will see that Narendra Modi is no mere figurehead Emperor to be fussed over and elevated to failure. They already know that he is far more than a self-serving, opportunistic Daimyo in the Mulayam Singh or Nitish Kumar mode. And at last they will accept the inevitable truth. Modi is Shogun.

SBajwa
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SBajwa » 13 Dec 2013 01:27

Great Post RudraDev!

Kejriwal == Weepy Singh!!! Remind people that

1. V.P singh brought Mandal and there were riots all over India (north-south-east-west)., students tried to immolate themselves all over India Including Delhi.

2. Soon! Government of India had to ship Gold over to England due to sinking economy (oil prices) and thus ripple effect.

BTW... V.P at least had some experience of being chief minister, AK does not have any experience and any job that he tries he loses interest (IIT, IAS, NGOs, etc) and he gets money from his IITian USA friends (Rs 25,000 per person) AK is just an Anarchist who will never take responsibility and will always be a nuisance value.

RajeshA
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 13 Dec 2013 02:43

Rudradev ji,

Any SM campaign to project Arvind Kejriwal as a VPSingh redux has to be with a singular tag, and it has to be sustained over a long period of time.

#Kejriwal_AnotherVPSinghYawn or
#Kejriwal_VPSinghReduxYawn
#Kejriwal_EvenVPSinghWasBetter
#VPSinghKiKhichari_IsBarKejri
#VPSinghYaKejri_PharakKya
#EvenVPSinghWasBetter
#VPSinghKaBhootKejriwal

....

Or something shorter and better!


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