Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Vayutuvan
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 12 Dec 2013 22:54

Pranav wrote:Question to me? Can you prove your claim that EVMs were not manipulated?

I am not claiming either way so there is nothing to prove.

What is well known is that certain EVM technologies can be defeated. That doesn't mean that they had been manipulated whether Cong(I) won or BJP.

If your claim is all Cong(I) wins are due to EVM manipulation but none of the BJP ones are, then it so extraordinary a claim that a proof of that can severely damage Cong(I) 2014 LS elections - the party may even be barred from contesting.

So until such a proof is forthcoming I will continue to disbelieve in such a hypothesis.
Last edited by Vayutuvan on 13 Dec 2013 02:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 12 Dec 2013 22:58

Hari Seldon wrote:IN any case, why take a chance with something like this?

Not much can be done (though not saying BJP/Modi should not try). Why even manipulate EVMs? The incumbents simply stay in power (like IG did).

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rudradev » 13 Dec 2013 01:15

There is a massive MSM campaign to project Kejriwal and AAP as some sort of "unprecedented phenomenon". Clearly this is driven by the need to create a "New Story" that will occupy the imaginations of youthful voters by displacing what has been the "New Story" for a few months now-- NaMo as BJP PM candidate. NaMo has kept that wave going through the four state elections, and now there is a concerted effort by the MSM to dampen it and replace NaMo with Kejriwal at national centre stage.

Fine. But how true is the contention that Kejriwal is an "unprecedented" phenomenon? Honestly, the whole AAP fuss reminds me very much of something that happened when I was still in high school... the Bofors Rebellion of VP Singh against the Rajiv Gandhi establishment. Like VPS, AK successfully projects himself as an impeccably honest crusader against corruption. Like the Jan Morcha, AAP has come together around this English-educated leader, who himself has little or no mass base outside urban India (that's being generous... at present, AK's base doesn't seem much wider than Delhi.)

The comparison is instructive for two reasons. Firstly, in 89-90, various other non-Congress regional leaders who had once ridden under the JP and Ram Manohar Lohia banners drew themselves together to form a "third front" around the VP Singh phenomenon... including Mulayam Singh, Laloo, Chandra Shekhar, Deve Gowda, Devi Lal and others. We are seeing this happen again, with Nitish Kumar's eagerness to claim space on the AAP bandwagon as a means of building a transregional alliance in which people like him would hold the keys to power.

The second interesting point of comparison is that VP Singh's government failed completely to govern... as was made disastrously obvious by the Mandal agitation within a year of his PM-ship. VP Singh cut a formidable figure as a "crusader against corruption", but soon showed himself miserably lacking in the skills required to run a country. AAP is terrified that it will now have to implement the flighty notions it peddled to impressionable voters in its manifesto, by running a minority government in Delhi. Chances are good that they will fail even sooner, and more spectacularly, than VP Singh did. HOWEVER-- the regional satraps who surrounded VP Singh did not go down with his ship. Many of them formed political parties that went on to become the establishment in their respective regions of the country, including the SP, RJD, JD(U), JD(S) and so on... and the rise of these parties to serious power-brokers in regional politics came invariably at the cost of the Congress, who had dominated many of those regions virtually unchallenged before the rise of VP Singh.

Two things, therefore, stand out very clearly:

1) "Third Front" leaders like Mulayam, Nitish Kumar and others realize that their only chance at forming a national government lies in having a figurehead Emperor to whom they can play Daimyo... a character like 1989's VP Singh, or today's Kejriwal, who has captured the imagination of the middle-class urban public by espousing an anti-establishment stance that takes advantage of rising public anger against the incumbent Congress. Furthermore, the Emperor has little mass base of his own outside the city, and will depend on the numbers raised by these Third Front Daimyos to keep him in power; the Emperor also has little idea how to actually run a government, so he will be heavily influenced by the demands and suggestions of the Daimyos in formulating policy. These policies, of course, will be to the vast benefit of the Daimyos who hitch themselves to the Emperor's bandwagon... whether in terms of straighforward handouts (special status for Bihar), caste-bank pandering (Mandal etc.) or other corrupt practices. The end result of this kind of governance will be to discredit the Emperor... Kejriwal will fall from PMship even more quickly than VP Singh when people see what he is about... but the damage will have been done, and the Daimyos will have strengthened themselves enormously, by the time the government falls.

2) The Congress is stupid if it thinks it can use the propping up Kejriwal types to thwart the BJP. After the last time this happened-- the rise of VP Singh-- Congress was so damaged that it never quite recovered its pre-1989 stature as a national party. If it happens again with Kejriwal, the Congress will lose out even more badly, and will take even longer to recover if indeed it ever recovers at all. Even if Kejriwal's emergence as the "New Story" seems to dampen the advance of the Modi wave for the time being... the fuss won't last longer than a few months of AAP (non) governance in Delhi. With shrewd media management the BJP could actually turn the story around and make it an asset, using it to demonstrate the futility of elevating anti-corruption crusaders to the status of figurehead Emperor. They could contrast Kejriwal's inevitable three-month failure with the 144-month success of Narenda Modi... who actually has earned a mass base of his own and provided better governance for his region than anyone else in the country.

The people will see that Narendra Modi is no mere figurehead Emperor to be fussed over and elevated to failure. They already know that he is far more than a self-serving, opportunistic Daimyo in the Mulayam Singh or Nitish Kumar mode. And at last they will accept the inevitable truth. Modi is Shogun.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SBajwa » 13 Dec 2013 01:27

Great Post RudraDev!

Kejriwal == Weepy Singh!!! Remind people that

1. V.P singh brought Mandal and there were riots all over India (north-south-east-west)., students tried to immolate themselves all over India Including Delhi.

2. Soon! Government of India had to ship Gold over to England due to sinking economy (oil prices) and thus ripple effect.

BTW... V.P at least had some experience of being chief minister, AK does not have any experience and any job that he tries he loses interest (IIT, IAS, NGOs, etc) and he gets money from his IITian USA friends (Rs 25,000 per person) AK is just an Anarchist who will never take responsibility and will always be a nuisance value.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 13 Dec 2013 02:43

Rudradev ji,

Any SM campaign to project Arvind Kejriwal as a VPSingh redux has to be with a singular tag, and it has to be sustained over a long period of time.

#Kejriwal_AnotherVPSinghYawn or
#Kejriwal_VPSinghReduxYawn
#Kejriwal_EvenVPSinghWasBetter
#VPSinghKiKhichari_IsBarKejri
#VPSinghYaKejri_PharakKya
#EvenVPSinghWasBetter
#VPSinghKaBhootKejriwal

....

Or something shorter and better!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 13 Dec 2013 03:27

Rudradev ji,

what happened to your idea of opening a thread in Strat forums on the discussion about Modi's foreign policy agenda?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 13 Dec 2013 04:15

IANS report:

Stunned in four states Congress fears 2014

New Delhi: Congress leaders across India are virtually in mourning after the humiliating defeat in four states, with many admitting the rout has rattled the party ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha election.

Congress leaders at various levels in state after state blamed a variety of factors for the electoral drubbing in Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Most state leaders who spoke to IANS said they were worried over the coming Lok Sabha battle. A few conceded that the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi was indeed a major threat.

"You cannot deny the Modi factor," said a Congress leader in Rajasthan, where his party was crushed by the Bharatiya Janata Party. "He is a good orator. People enjoyed listening to his speeches."

Another Rajasthan leader, who did not want to be identified by name, added that he was now convinced that people were angry with the Congress in all states.

"The Congress will find it very tough to come out of this crisis by the next Lok Sabha election," he said, adding the party would win only one or two parliamentary seats in the state.


In elections held in November-December, the BJP retained Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh despite being in power for 10 years, ousted the Congress in Rajasthan and came close to victory in Delhi.

In Delhi, the one-year-old Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) created history by bagging 28 of the 70 seats in its maiden electoral battle. Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit was herself defeated by AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal.

In Punjab, a prominent Congress leader did not hide his disgust. "Mere rhetoric on non-issues will no longer work," he told IANS. "Rahul Gandhi will have to take drastic measures now."

Punjab Congress president and Gurdaspur MP Pratap Singh Bajwa said the results were "a wake up call".

Congress leaders in Haryana are worried that the AAP -- which has pockets of influence in areas bordering Delhi -- could expand its base in the state.


A senior Congress leader in Maharashtra blamed four 'M's for the debacle: "Modi, Media, Minorities and Manmohan." :((

He said party activists appeared disenchanted in the Congress-ruled state. Although he felt that the result would not impact on the Lok Sabha polls, he warned that the Congress "will have to work doubly hard". :?:

In Odisha, where the Congress has been out of power since 2000, senior party leader Niranjan Patnaik warned of similar debacles elsewhere unless "mistakes" were rectified.

Another leader complained that there was no internal democracy in the country's oldest political party.

Almost all of those who spoke to IANS, however, insisted that Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her son and vice president Rahul Gandhi could not be blamed for the electoral mess. :mrgreen:

"The results are definitely a matter of grave concern," said Jammu and Kashmir minister and Congress leader Sham Lal Sharma. "But to blame the defeat on Rahul Gandhi is highly unfair." :mrgreen:

Salman Soz, a Congress leader and son of the party's state president Saif-ud-Din, told IANS that the state results were "deeply distressing" and "we must learn some hard lessons".

On Sunday, after the Congress was soundly defeated, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi spoke on similar lines.

A Tamil Nadu Congress leader said "Modi and the media" contributed to the electoral drubbing. But he insisted there was no Modi wave. :mrgreen:

A few felt that rising food prices and corruption -- for which the Congress-led central government was to blame -- were the reasons people had become disenchanted with the party.

"We were not expecting this kind of defeat in the four states," rued a Goa Congress leader. But he told IANS: "But people are mature. They vote for one party at local level and another at the national level."

"Disconnect with people appears to be a major reason for the defeat," Jharkhand Congress spokesman Shailesh Sinha told IANS. "Leaders seem to be depending on the party's name and leader to garner votes."

In Andhra Pradesh, whose division has also split the Congress, those from outside the Telangana region openly spoke out against their own national leaders. :mrgreen:

"The results are a reflection on the UPA government," said L. Rajagopal, MP from Vijayawada. Warned former minister J.C. Diwakar Reddy: "The party has already died in the state. It cannot be revived."

Some Congress leaders expressed the hope that the party will overcome -- and not allow Sunday's verdict to cast a shadow on the Lok Sabha polls.

Said West Bengal Congress general secretary Om Prakash Mishra: "The Congress showing is disastrous but it won't have any significant bearing on the Lok Sabha polls. There is no reason for despondency."

(Mohammed Shafeeq, Sirshendu Panth, Fakir Balaji, Nityanand Shukla, Sujit Chakravarty, Mayabhushan Nagvenkar, Sanu George, Anil Sharma, V. Jagannathan, Sheikh Qayoom, Jatindra Dash, Quaid Najmi and Jaideep Sarin contributed to this story.)


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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Suraj » 13 Dec 2013 05:52

Humorous aside: all these statements about 'there's no Modi wave!' caused a bulb to light up in my head. They are all correct. There's no Modi wave. It's actually a tsunami (or a tsuNaMo, as forumites would put it), which unlike a wave can't be sensed easily until it almost makes landfall, upon which it caused far more damage than a wave :)

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SBajwa » 13 Dec 2013 05:54

and sometimes I think that these elections were fair and people's vote did count (100%) just because Rahul Gandhi wants to sit in opposition and learn before coming back.
and thus AAP (since fair elections) got 28 seats in Delhi!

The elections after 13 days of BJP government were not fair.
The elections after BJP's 5 years of rule (National grid of highways, Nuke, 8% of Economy, Metro, etc) where BJP expected 100% to come back to power were not fair.

Something definitely is fishy going on in the strategic front vis-à-vis elections!!! Again we need to learn from our recent as well as far history!

Congress tactics are to "Attack low and from as many people as possible" Diggy, Mani, Tiwari, etc.
And then use the vile like below!


Journalists like Tarun Tejpal, Rajeev Shukla (who was just a reporter with startrek videos, etc) gets top position in Congress just like earlier a Stenographer from Chandigarh (can't recall his name) and a Yogi baba who was top around Indira Gandhi and even before him., a top advisor around Nehru was O.P Mathai.

and if that does not work go sit in opposition benches while finding such "low people" TT, etc who will do "sting like" operations to get the government down. (Tarun, Barkha should be sentenced just for George Fernandes, Kargil)

Congress has a habit of using and dumping these "low common AAP people"! Morarji, Vajyapaee, Advani, V.P these didn't realized and became part of "dilli billis" and also were too naïve!

Only person who can counter these vile must be a person well versed in Dharma and with utmost character along with unflinching will against all odds!!

Now so far we have a hope in NAMO! Let's pray that he will ditch all these plots and will rule India for minimum of 10 years!!!
Last edited by SBajwa on 13 Dec 2013 06:06, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 13 Dec 2013 05:55

Delhi might go under President's rule. BJP and AAP want the re-elections along with General Elections. Congress wants to decouple them.

Delhi being UT can have elections in one year instead of six months.

So expect hera pheri.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Pranav » 13 Dec 2013 06:25

Matrimc, in your previous post, you said -
matrimc wrote:can we have some explanation of why EVMs were not manipulated


To which I replied -
Pranav wrote:Question to me? Can you prove your claim that EVMs were not manipulated?


Now you say -
matrimc wrote:I am not claiming either way so there is nothing to prove.


I think you better clarify what you are trying to say.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Pranav » 13 Dec 2013 06:37

Rudradev wrote:The Congress is stupid if it thinks it can use the propping up Kejriwal types to thwart the BJP.

Congress is not indispensable as far as the neo-colonial system is concerned.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 13 Dec 2013 06:45

TOI has been somehow running a high decibel campaign on the LGBT issue .

what irritates me is that nobody in any co I know of cares about this issue , nobody wants to intrude into personal life and people are free to do whatever they want on their own time. why should company HR need to get into someone's sexual orientation?

but no , there has to be a high decibel campaign and committes in every co per the TOI to identify and enable these people come 'out' and 'celebrate' who they are and hold parades and such probably. why? this is like creating problems where there are none.

I think they take all their cues from some western outlets.

another case is the obsession with breast cancer awareness in terms of campaigns , even runs , when its well known cardiac issues kill more women than cancer, HIV, TB and malaria combined per a narayana hrudalaya leaflet I picked up this week.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby disha » 13 Dec 2013 07:03

More HR Celebrations means more "NGO type of committees" of eminent feminists to look into "internal" HR issues. Forgot Urvashi Bhutalia?

And more breast cancer awareness means more ways to mint money out of foreign donors. Reminds me of the HIV scare mongering where 10Cr people will have HIV/AIDS by 2010 and 1 Cr will die every year.

Cardiac issues (Type II diabetes & High BP included) is the no.1 killer. But then this issues are known and no new drugs can be pushed for this (for eg. a healthy diet and lifestyle is far more effective than taking a lifetime of statins or blood thinners for general population).

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 13 Dec 2013 07:06

Here is some news to chew on

http://aajtak.intoday.in/story/raman-si ... 49403.html

इस अवसर पर बीजेपी के राष्ट्रीय अध्यक्ष राजनाथ सिंह, वरिष्ठ नेता लाल कृष्ण आडवाणी, प्रधानमंत्री पद के बीजेपी के उम्मीदवार नरेंद्र मोदी, हाल में मध्य प्रदेश और राजस्थान विधानसभा चुनावों में जबरदस्त जीत दर्ज करने वाले शिवराज सिंह चौहान और वसुंधरा राजे, बहुमत न मिलने के कारण फिलहाल दिल्ली में मुख्यमंत्री पद की कुर्सी से दूर डॉ. हर्षवर्धन, गोवा के मुख्यमंत्री मनोहर पर्रिकर, शिवसेना नेता उद्धव ठाकरे, एमएनएस प्रमुख राज ठाकरे, अर्जुन मुंडा, बीजेपी के पूर्व अध्यक्ष नितिन गडकरी, उड़ीसा के मुख्यमंत्री नवीन पटनायक और कांग्रेसी नेता अजित जोगी सहित अन्य नेता मौजूद थे.


और भी... http://aajtak.intoday.in/story/raman-si ... 49403.html

So has a deal been worked out to have MNS silently into NDA. Is Naveen now being amenable?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 13 Dec 2013 07:08

^^^
+1.

in India, nobody cares about LGBT distractions. it's a non-issue. people couldn't care less or more about it.

this whole hooplah, forcefully making this a central issue, and making only one particular side of it as the "right stance" is just social engineering on a mass scale.

more importantly, this SC ruling is a nice distraction. an unnecessary distraction.

societies which go to absurd lengths to regulate sexual behavior will ultimately end up displaying the most grotesque perversions of it.

there is no need for this law prohibiting gay sex.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 13 Dec 2013 07:09

Gd, the 2Gs are trying out new hot button issues to take the sting out of the 0-4 defeat.

Am sure they will pass an ordinance even though its a British legacy law and should have been removed by them in the last 60 years.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby archan » 13 Dec 2013 08:33

Guys this is election thread. LGBT has little to do with it.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 13 Dec 2013 08:37

Seriously, the AAP are just a bunch of posh Naxalites. All this `People's Court' (Kangaroo courts where everyone deemed guilty by a bunch of terrorist scum are lynched - the modernised version of it was the StaSi), terrorist apologia, maligning the police and the army, economically disastrous freebies, people's assemblies setting prices, etc should tell anyone with half a brain what these scum are. If Khujliwal wants to contest the Lok Sabha polls, there is plenty of stuff to beat him and his party with.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 13 Dec 2013 08:39

^Now that re-polls have become a necessity in Delhi, any idea by when one can know the approximate date of the re-poll? I think by end-jan the dates would be out after which the BJP can get to work on candidate selection, voter outreach and other issues.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 13 Dec 2013 09:31

Hari Seldon wrote:^Now that re-polls have become a necessity in Delhi, any idea by when one can know the approximate date of the re-poll? I think by end-jan the dates would be out after which the BJP can get to work on candidate selection, voter outreach and other issues.


Hari Saar,

Its a catch 22 situation for BJP. Should they spend their resources on a small tini-mini place like delhi (has just 7 seats for LS), but at the same time, if they let AAP win, then MSM will play the AAP card from Feb thru May 24X7 to reduce modi wave.

Not Sure how BJP will deal with this

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Gus » 13 Dec 2013 09:45

am i missing something. why would they not have the repoll alongside the scheduled LS elections that only a few months away?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 13 Dec 2013 09:49

Gus wrote:am i missing something. why would they not have the repoll alongside the scheduled LS elections that only a few months away?


I believe if the elections occur it could be with General elections. That is like a huge success for INC as they don't want to see a BJP government in Delhi. President's rule means INC rule.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 13 Dec 2013 10:07

^^
So congress in control of the Delhi gov for 6 more months. After the re-poll it is either BJP or AAP in Delhi unless INC can claw is way back. Another 6 months of INC rule matters to the people of Delhi but why is that a huge success to INC?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby chaanakya » 13 Dec 2013 10:09

xposted

Two companies that put Rs 28 crore in Tehelka linked to Jindal firm named in coal scam FIR


Two firms that together invested Rs 28.35 crore in Tarun Tejpal's holding company, Anant Media, which publishes Tehelka magazine, have links to a Jindal group company that is named in a CBI FIR in the coal blocks allotment scandal, an investigation by The Indian Express has found.

Records show that Enlightened Consultancy Services invested Rs 16.75 crore and Weldon Polymers Private Ltd Rs 11.60 crore in Anant Media. Both companies made the first two tranches of their investment on the same dates: June 20, 2008 and November 20, 2008. Both bought Rs-10 Anant Media shares at a premium of Rs 10,623. This effectively valued Anant Media at Rs 93.1 crore while its loss was Rs 21.06 crore.


An analysis of the share transactions (see box) involving Tehelka and these companies shows that between 2006 and 2010, through sale and purchase at regular intervals, Tehelka's management sold shares at a high premium, bought them back at nominal face value and then re-issued these same shares among these interlinked companies.


The Indian Express emailed a detailed questionnaire to Neena Tejpal, COO of Anant Media. She said she was not in a position to comment at this time. The questionnaire was also emailed to Shoma Chaudhury, Tehelka's former managing editor. She did not reply.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Raja » 13 Dec 2013 10:12

Paul wrote:eat chai biscui,discuss to death in parliamentary board meetings, drag it out for as long as possible and this will go away sooner or later.


Depends on the context. In the long run, this issue is not going to "go away" and pretending that it does not exist in "Indian culture" will bite BJP in the ass long term. Just ask the sane Republicans.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 13 Dec 2013 10:13

muraliravi wrote:Hari Saar,

Its a catch 22 situation for BJP. Should they spend their resources on a small tini-mini place like delhi (has just 7 seats for LS), but at the same time, if they let AAP win, then MSM will play the AAP card from Feb thru May 24X7 to reduce modi wave.

Not Sure how BJP will deal with this

Same for AAP .. they too have to spend resources on Delhi elections. Being an cadre based party it should be easier for BJP than the volunteer based AAP .. that too when lots of them are working folks from outside Delhi and will have to be committed enough to take leave without pay for another election with uncertain results.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krishnan » 13 Dec 2013 10:16

how long are companies that these volunteers work for , allow them all these leave, its not going to go on and on.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 13 Dec 2013 10:19

DMK not keen on alliance; Cong’s southern plans go haywire
NEW DELHI: The Congress's 'southern strategy' in 82 Lok Sabha seats seems to be in a shambles with DMK veering further away from its former ally for the 2014 elections and heir apparent M K Stalin going to the extent of dubbing the UPA lead player as "untouchable".

The chances of revival of Congress-DMK alliance appear to have receded irreversibly after the Congress rout in four assembly elections, a jolt to the ruling party that is banking on expanding the UPA ahead of the mega battle for 2014.

There is concern in Congress at indications that DMK has hardened its anti-UPA stance.

<snip>

According to sources, the Congress rout in the recent assembly elections in MP, Rajasthan, Delhi and Chhattisgarh seems to have convinced the top brass of DMK against aligning with UPA. All eyes are on DMK's stance on alliance to be spelt out at a convention this week.

For Congress, it is the second piece of bad news after evidence that it may have overshot the timeline to follow up on its decision to create Telangana by dividing Andhra Pradesh. The two southern states including Puducherry account for 82 Lok Sabha seats.

This is the secondary but equally important impact of 4-0 to BJP is having on the prospect of pre-poll alliances for congress.

member_20317
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_20317 » 13 Dec 2013 10:23

Pratyush wrote:It wont bog down the AAP in delhi. For a single reason, that it is a professional based party and will be use the support of volunteers, they can be sold on the idealism of the youth and function across the nation, while spoiling the game in delhi.

The only hope lies in the voter recognising the game and defeating the AAP. BJP on its own cant beat such a party.


BJP had the RJB movement, by coincidence just when VP was installing an EJ agenda with outside support of Congress. How is AAP different. Though I admit the new fight will have to be of a different flavour and RJB will not get BJP out of this.

Here's what I think on this matter.

Premise - AAP is trying to take the BJP wind of criticizing congress far more bitterly and with far less credibility then that of BJP. AAP's statements (BJP copying us, BJP contacting our MLAs, BJP = = Congress) are all designed to pre-empt the BJP supporter as well as the BJP leadership.

Fact - Congress lost everything except the only state where their blackmail and wheeling dealing works. BJP on the other hand retained its states and convinced new states to join the band wagon.

Challenge - There are a lot of state elections scheduled in 2014 and the big deal GE-14. But almost all are going to be in a multi-cornered situations from the BJP POV or where BJP is not very strong but has some ground presence eg. Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Orissa, Sikkim

Way forward - BJP must make sure that its own propaganda now shifts gear from being critical of Congress to presenting itself as the true alternative. The lesson from Delhi is that BJP has not presented itself well as the alternative. AAP is just a sideshow and can be swatted at an appropriate time. The agenda must now shift, for the final stretch of the campaign to:

a) Development and governance. The belief that BJP governed states have shown in BJP and the no-confidence that Congress governed states having shown on Congress, must be highlighted. Also when I say governance I am specially focusing on the law and order. Law and order is something that all turd front sarkars fail on, check NCRB data. This change in gear will allow people to contemplate instead of getting excited. Exciting mood is what the AAP and BJP got the Delhi public into and that worked against BJP.

b) BJP will be able to transfer/corral at least 2% votes (1% Hindutva + 1% Development) to any of its partners in all of the above states going to elections in 2014 and also in the GE-14. That is an advantage that confers negotiating ability. Hence BJP must strike pre-poll alliances in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand and even Orissa. Naveen Patnaik and Raj Thakrey must be convinced to play ball. Raj must understand that his urban, semi-urban circus is under threat from the NEW MNS ie. AAP :). This can be conveyed to Udhav too. Both these guys will understand, once given confidence of BJP support at a much more bigger scale then usual. Naveen Patnaik is strong without BJP but he must be convinced of having a pre-poll alliance by giving his state a promise of reviving the projects that were chased out by congis. This logic should be understandable for Didi too. Both can be made to understand that the recent Delhi elections imply that the turd front is a non-starter because people are voting based on perceptions of corruption and the turd fronters are the most ill viewed in this regard. OTOH they can strike deals with BJP and have advantage in state elections & GE-14 in their respective states and advantage for BJP in terms of leading the centre in 14. Andhra and Jharkhand can be used to dirty up the situation for building up a threatening position at later stages. Haryana is a tough nut but the good thing is the wheeling dealing nature of lay haryanvi politician. At smaller level the AAP can be used to create a Hauva (pretense).

Pls TIFWIW. May not by much worth though :lol:

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krishnan » 13 Dec 2013 10:24

they sure have become untouchable , a person i known camped in delhi for weeks to meet SG, but didnt get a chance to. and he is no ordinary citizen, is well known in political circles even in delhi

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 13 Dec 2013 10:28

1. NCP making noises to get a more advantageous seat sharing.
2. JDU has for the present backed away from CON.
3. CBN is now more inclined towards BJP
4. BJD will maintain equidistant from both BJP and CON when earlier there was talk of seekoolar JV
5. DMK seems to be distancing itself from CON
6. SS and MNS may be more inclined to come to some understanding with BJP that will benefit all 3.

All because of 4-0 in favor of BJP

suryag
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby suryag » 13 Dec 2013 10:38

birathers aap will form govt with outside support from congies. khajana will be looted and all freebies distributed for next six months. aap will showcase this and eat middle class votes of bhajpa in the ls elections

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_20317 » 13 Dec 2013 10:41

pankajs wrote:
muraliravi wrote:Hari Saar,

Its a catch 22 situation for BJP. Should they spend their resources on a small tini-mini place like delhi (has just 7 seats for LS), but at the same time, if they let AAP win, then MSM will play the AAP card from Feb thru May 24X7 to reduce modi wave.

Not Sure how BJP will deal with this

Same for AAP .. they too have to spend resources on Delhi elections. Being an cadre based party it should be easier for BJP than the volunteer based AAP .. that too when lots of them are working folks from outside Delhi and will have to be committed enough to take leave without pay for another election with uncertain results.


AAP had worked well at BJP == Congress. That is why Vijay Goel had to take the brunt of the attack and then the pristine white Harshvardhan had to be brought in.

The difference between volunteer vs. cadre is that of discipline. Hell even the BJP sympathezers (volunteers) have far better discipline then the most committed of AAP volunteers. But the big prize are the elections in 2014. Which are far more important than just Delhi. Delhi has been made to believe that whatever happens in Delhi eventually happens in rest of the country. A specious argument but the 24/7 propaganda is too much even for BJP cadre. No point wasting time in Delhi. Encircle and blockade. Delhi will sure come out of this spell of self-importance, once it realizes the depth of politics that the rest of the country is seeing. BJP should ideally not look for a new fight where it does not stand to gain much, but give a good account of its capabilities wherever the fight actually is.

All said and done if despite its patience, BJP finds itself having to fight an election in Delhi then rest assured the support base in Delhi is not eroded much and in fact I suspect a lot of traditional congressis will join in with BJP because they have been betrayed by their own central leadership. Slowly this will sink in, into the gali nukkad congressi's mind. Delhi has seen BJP win on seats that congress had won on earlier. At the ground level the lay congressi who ensure presence in the mohallas, is cross at AAP and not at BJP. They tend to view BJP as a legitimate challenger but about AAP they feel like it is some gross infection. I mean its actually BJP that lost the elections despite being the biggest party but it is the Congressis that are full of scorn for AAP.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 13 Dec 2013 10:43

Khajana can be looted and bijli bill can be cut by half for 6 months budget be dammed .. but 700 litres of paani cannot be provided to all house especially slums in 6 months.

I read somewhere that this water issue was what pulled the mayavadi vote to AAP. BJP needs to choose and focus on the issue like this and hammer it home as betrayal if AAP-CON gov. is formed.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Pranav » 13 Dec 2013 10:48

Interesting that there is now an open rift between Bhushan Senior and AAP. Look at this article in India Today -

Kejriwal on course to ruin 2014 for BJP
SHANTI BHUSHAN | New Delhi, December 13, 2013 | 06:35
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/arvi ... 30897.html

Arvind Kejriwal might prove to be a spoiler for the BJP bandwagon in 2014. During the Delhi assembly elections, Kejriwal and party made it quite clear that they were opposed to the BJP more than the Congress. Kejriwal very cleverly targeted BJP using the corruption plank, equating BJP and Congress on one hand and on the other hand meeting Muslim leaders to acquire Muslim support on a secular plank knowing that Muslims, who were notionally against the BJP, are now were fed up of the Congress and seeking a new platform to stand against the BJP.

Anna

Kejriwal and his party are the product of 'Anna' Hazare's movement, which erupted against the Congress's colossal corruption and patronage to corruption. Later on, however, the movement, which was essentially against the misdeeds of Manmohan Singh's government, took a different turn and was made to look as if it were against the BJP too on purpose, by some vested interests, with the active support of Arvind Kejriwal. Once it was done, it confused the people and the movement, which started with a bang, ended up slowly with a whimper. The sheen of the movement was gone. It put Kejriwal and company out of a job.

But Kejriwal would not accept defeat. He came out with the decision of entering into electoral politics, which he had claimed to be stoutly against. However Anna Hazare did not consent to the idea, and it was a big dampener to Keriwal's ambitions. So Kejriwal defied Anna Hazare and formed a political outfit by the name of Aam Admi Party, giving it a colour of an anti-corruption unit against both the national parties, instead of just opposed to the Congress against whom the movement was initiated in the first place. He intentionally and mischievously raised the bogey of Gadkari's corruption and bracketed him with the Congress party's known corrupt politicians to show his 'secular' credentials. The BJP's name was sullied to please a particular community. Otherwise the BJP was nowhere near power so there was no question of them having been involved in corruption.

Arvind Kejriwal took full advantage of the BJP's complacency in ignoring AAP. He was preparing his ground ingeniously, working silently against the BJP and outwardly showing his opposition to the Congress. He exploited the sentiments of the people and gained phenomenal success at elections, cleverly shifting the blame for rampant corruption on the BJP too along with the Congress. He did it on purpose to attract minority votes. Kejriwal showed exemplary skills in election management and deserved credit for his forthrightness, his courage and his hard work.

Corruption

Riding high after his phenomenal success, he announced his arrival on the national scene. His crusade against corruption is laudable, but governance does not mean eradication of corruption only, as Kejriwal thinks and would have us believe. There are other many threats staring the nation, because of misdeeds of this present Congress government. The economy is in shambles, despite or one may say because of the economic wizard we have as our prime minister. Ever-increasing prices of essential commodities and petroleum products for no valid reason is threatening the life of common people. Nobody knows the extent to which such price rise would continue. The Congress government mandarins seem to have no clue as to what has been happening, let alone taking any measures to control the rising prices. Internal strife, increasing crimes particularly against women, lawlessness in the country as a whole indicate the total failure of law and order machinery.

And the biggest threat the nation is staring is external aggression, which has undermined country's security. China is surrounding India with aggressive postures much beyond the tolerance of any sovereign state. Pakistan is daringly abetting insurgency and rebellion in Kashmir, sponsoring terror in India and breaching our borders on a regular basis and our Prime Minister as a helpless onlooker has failed to take any appropriate measures. He always resorts to dialogues with the neighbouring countries who are behaving as enemies, without realising that talks or dialogues may avoid the aggression but the aggression can not be talked about. It has to be met with full force at your disposal, if you are a self-respecting nation.

Governance

All these issues concern the governance of the nation and need to be addressed effectively without wasting time. This is why it is essential to rid the nation of this inactive and failed government of Manmohan Singh which has become a liability. And it is why Narendra Modi is becoming the people's choice because he has shown the acumen and guts both to solve the nation's problems and restore the nation's pride. Kejriwal seem completely oblivious to governance in a larger perspective.

Moreover he does not seem too bothered about the practicability of his lofty ideas of governance through 'Janata Durbar'. At least he realises that so called Janata or Aam Admi choose their representatives through elections to deliver goods for them. So as an elected representative he can not throw the responsibility of governance back to them, as he has been shouting from the roof tops that it is the janata which would decide what to do and what not.

His priority is seemingly to destabilise the political system of the country - which is well established and need no replacement - by discrediting political parties, particularly the BJP and stop Modi from coming to power irrespective of the consequences for the nation. Because once Modi comes to power his shop would be wound up, and his dreams whatever he has and his lofty ideas would be shattered beyond repair.

In a national scenario like this Arvind Kejriwal and his party does not fit into the scheme of things. But his popularity among the masses can't be denied. He is a good person and for the masses, he is honest too. His decision to jump into the fray in the national election might pose a serious threat to BJP. His lofty ideas about governance by the masses are neither understandable nor backed by history. His idea of fighting elections does not seem to be providing good governance, but to derail the system first. And then he thinks a new system would evolve. He is clever enough to play the emotional card to get the people's support. Therefore he is a dangerous antagonist the BJP needs to be wary of.

The writer is a former law minister, a former member of the BJP and a founding member of the Aam Admi Party
----------------------

Update - Now Shanti Bhushan is saying above article is not written by him. But it is still available on the India Today website. All a little strange. Regardless, the allegedly forged article makes some valid points. Also, from twitter, a type-set version -

Image
Last edited by Pranav on 13 Dec 2013 15:32, edited 2 times in total.

subhamoy.das
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby subhamoy.das » 13 Dec 2013 10:49

Success has many fathers and failure dies orphan. BJP success - driven by NAMO - is blurring the artificial secular-communal lines. 2014 will see BJP close to 250 mark on their own. Mark my words. It is a good move by BJP to not form the govt in Delhi and force PAAP to show their true colour to the voters. A re-election, closer to general election, will swing votes for BJP as voters will try to get a maximum millage out of having a local govt in line with the federal govt post 2014.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Pranav » 13 Dec 2013 10:52

The way for BJP to counter AAP is to take the corruption issue more seriously. Present system of caged parrot CBI is fundamentally flawed. Since BJP has not been proactive on this issue the emergence of AAP became possible and perhaps necessary.
Last edited by Pranav on 13 Dec 2013 10:53, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Altair » 13 Dec 2013 10:53

subhamoy.das wrote:Success has many fathers and failure dies orphan. BJP success - driven by NAMO - is blurring the artificial secular-communal lines. 2014 will see BJP close to 250 mark on their own. Mark my words. It is a good move by BJP to not form the govt in Delhi and force PAAP to show their true colour to the voters. A re-election, closer to general election, will swing votes for BJP as voters will try to get a maximum millage out of having a local govt in line with the federal govt post 2014.

+1
Yes. I agree. Very accurate call from BJP. Top minds at work there.

member_20317
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_20317 » 13 Dec 2013 11:08

Pranav wrote:The way for BJP to counter AAP is to take the corruption issue more seriously. Present system of caged parrot CBI is fundamentally flawed. Since BJP has not been proactive on this issue the emergence of AAP became possible and perhaps necessary.


I am yet to come across anything that suggests AAP has taken a stand against 'caged parrot CBI'. In fact Kejriwal has used the CBI threat in some rape case against the SaPa also. However the most damaging bit is that AAP and kejriwal want the CBI to remain a caged parrot albeit of their Lokpal. A lokpal that will not ask questions on Rs. 10000 crores of religious funding coming into India but will be allowed to dictate anything and everything against the very Parliament of India.

BJP OTOH has time and again said that CBI is being misused. On the MSM too. And yes they probably want to use it themselves against the Kejriwal types so I believe they too will not let go of CBI.

The point from BJP side remains that CBI was supposed to be TFTA, CVC was supposed to do even better, CIC was supposed to do even best, now Lokpal is supposed to do the bestest. Pranav da, a weapon is only as good as the wielder of the weapon.


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