Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[Muppalla]

For a constitutional amendment Govt you need more.

True. Ram Temple at Ayodhya does not need const amendment. It only needs simple majority. if you are at 165 the allies suddenly start remembering secularism. If you are 200 they remember nationalism.

[IndraD]

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/aap- ... 39150.html

Kejriwal is becoming PM acc to India today

[Supratik]

Well if they fit an agni missile in-between Kejriwal's legs and fire he will win all 543 seats. But seriously, I think the leftist, anti-BJP vote is moving to AAP with also a section of non-committed voters specially in Delhi damaging mostly INC and socialist parties. It is probably going to stop Modi from getting an ever bigger win.

[IndraD]

who is bribing media to support AAP??

[muraliravi]

who is bribing media to support AAP??

Everyone who dont want to see BJP in power

[muraliravi]

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/aap-lok-sabha-election-arvind-kejriwal-india-today-survey/1/339150.html

Kejriwal is becoming PM acc to India today

Looks at the comments, not a single guy is believing their fake propaganda. The issue is you cant counter them when they give such paltry numbers like 5% and 6%. What can you say, but you know its fake.

[anmol]

who is bribing media to support AAP??

Maybe not bribing, but blackmailing them..

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012 ... ct_auletta << Jains
http://www.kenauletta.com/2012_10_08_Au ... spaper.pdf
http://caravanmagazine.in/reportage/network-effect << Raghal Bahl

[RajeshA]

For a constitutional amendment Govt you need more.

That means an alliance without INC, CPI-M, CPI, FB, RSP, BSP, SP, RLD, TMC, JDU, RJD, LFP, DMK, IUML, AIUDF, AIMIM, NC, PDP, YSRCP, TRS, JDS, NCP, DMK, VCK, KCM and AAP.

All of these should not be more than 177.

[muraliravi]

For a constitutional amendment Govt you need more.

That means an alliance without INC, CPI-M, CPI, FB, RSP, BSP, SP, RLD, TMC, JDU, RJD, LFP, DMK, IUML, AIUDF, AIMIM, NC, PDP, YSRCP, TRS, JDS, NCP, DMK, VCK, KCM and AAP.

All of these should not be more than 177.

I hope BJP will never need these guys, but here are some thoughts

RLD, JDU, TRS, & JDS can be broken up very easily or their MP's can quite easily be forced to support the Ram Temple.

DMK and YSRCP, you may not even need these tactics, they will just support. These two parties, for all their atheist and x-tian bases are pure money based parties, you feed them, they will support you. I am not saying that is moral especially for a cause like the temple at Ayodhya, but sometimes these chanakyan stuff needs to be done in the background. DMK may oppose if MK is alive until then.

Even bigger is if INC does really plummet below 100 (I still see them crossing 100), then INC WILL BREAK and I am sure we can find 33 Hindu minded congressis of the old mould even today (though they may not say that when with the congress)

[Shanmukh]

I hope BJP will never need these guys, but here are some thoughts

RLD, JDU, TRS, & JDS can be broken up very easily or their MP's can quite easily be forced to support the Ram Temple.

DMK and YSRCP, you may not even need these tactics, they will just support. These two parties, for all their atheist and x-tian bases are pure money based parties, you feed them, they will support you. I am not saying that is moral especially for a cause like the temple at Ayodhya, but sometimes these chanakyan stuff needs to be done in the background. DMK may oppose if MK is alive until then.

Even bigger is if INC does really plummet below 100 (I still see them crossing 100), then INC WILL BREAK and I am sure we can find 33 Hindu minded congressis of the old mould even today (though they may not say that when with the congress)

MuraliRavi-ji,
Since we have been estimating the max. of the Congress, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to produce a minimum estimate of the Congress.

AP-0, Arunachal-0, Assam-4 (believe me - BJP has a decent chance of winning in 8 of the 14 seats (not saying it will happen), 2 others are impossible for the Cong.), Bihar-0, Chhattisgarh-1, Delhi-0, Goa-0, Gujarat-1, Haryana-1, HP-1, JK-0, Jharkhand-0, Karnataka-10, Kerala-5, MP-3, Maharashtra-9, Manipur-1, Meghalaya-1, Mizoram-1, Nagaland-0, Odisha-3, Punjab-2, Rajasthan-0, Sikkim-0, TN-0, Tripura-0, UP-2, Uttarakhand-0, WB-1, UTs-1

Total-47

You will need only 16 people to break the Congress then, and even in the Congress, I can find 16 honest men/women.

[IndraD]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 222617.cms
ToI says that their allegiance is to readers and not to any one else
please read

It is being said that this paper, after initially supporting AAP, has now 'turned' against it. We were prepared for this. We have been called pro-Congress, anti-Congress, pro-BJP, anti-BJP. We have been accused by some of being cheerleaders for Narendra Modi, and by others of running a campaign against him. And depending on who you listen to, we are either too soft or too hard on Rahul Gandhi.

Truth is, we have no political masters, nor do we have any hidden agendas. The only side we take is that of our readers.

We do not seek power or influence despite being by far the world's largest-circulated English newspaper. But we do want to use the columns of this paper to do good. We want to make India a better place for our children; we want them to grow up with hope, not despair.

Our job is to inform, educate, entertain, guide, and above all, help every reader realise his or her full potential. We believe in primacy of the individual over the state, and that democracy in its truest sense is about the power of one. We believe in personal liberty and in freedom of choice. We believe that governments and political leaders are here to serve, not to rule. We believe taxpayers have a right to expect that their money is spent honestly, prudently and wisely—instead of disappearing down the ratholes of sloth, corruption and political handouts. We believe natural resources need to be allocated fairly and transparently. We believe that business, when honestly conducted, is good for the nation. We believe in the creation of opportunity for the greatest number.

We will support Modi, Rahul, Kejriwal and every other politician every time they do the right thing. But no one should expect a blank cheque from us. Our sole allegiance is to our reader, not to any politician or party.

[RajeshA]

Even bigger is if INC does really plummet below 100 (I still see them crossing 100), then INC WILL BREAK and I am sure we can find 33 Hindu minded congressis of the old mould even today (though they may not say that when with the congress)

The split in Congress may be on the horizon. Whatever result they get, they will be mightily pissed off at the Dynasty for their weak showing. Anyway NaMo has almost finished off this aura around the Family.

The interesting thing though is that the biggest contingent from Congress would probably be from Karnataka. From everywhere else Congress numbers may not cross single digits.

I don't see any Family-independent Congress kshatrap like Pawar who could pull off such a split. Each Congress MP may have considerable strength in his constituency considering that he would have won despite the NaMo wave, but beyond that each MP's reach would be insignificant.

If Congress receives say 81 seats, so 54 Congress MPs would have to agree for a split. What would be the glue among these 54 MPs without any strong kshatrap to whom they could look up to? May be NaMo could offer some of them some ministership, but would 54 agree to join him?

Let's also not forget most of the Congress MPs would have been voted with substantial Muslim votes, so magnetic pull from NaMo would not be sufficient, and on their own they would lack the leadership to go ahead with the split.

So I don't think a split in Congress in really possible.

Unless Congress really tanks! That means if it gets around 25 seats only. Then a split would be on the cards. But

Karnataka 8
Maharashtra 5
Assam 6
Telangana 6
Kerala 6

These alone make 30. So I don't think Congress would split.

[Shanmukh]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/A-note-to-our-readers-TOIs-sole-allegiance-is-to-you/articleshow/29222617.cms
ToI says that their allegiance is to readers and not to any one else
please read

It is being said that this paper, after initially supporting AAP, has now 'turned' against it. We were prepared for this. We have been called pro-Congress, anti-Congress, pro-BJP, anti-BJP. We have been accused by some of being cheerleaders for Narendra Modi, and by others of running a campaign against him. And depending on who you listen to, we are either too soft or too hard on Rahul Gandhi.

Truth is, we have no political masters, nor do we have any hidden agendas. The only side we take is that of our readers.

We do not seek power or influence despite being by far the world's largest-circulated English newspaper. But we do want to use the columns of this paper to do good. We want to make India a better place for our children; we want them to grow up with hope, not despair.

Our job is to inform, educate, entertain, guide, and above all, help every reader realise his or her full potential. We believe in primacy of the individual over the state, and that democracy in its truest sense is about the power of one. We believe in personal liberty and in freedom of choice. We believe that governments and political leaders are here to serve, not to rule. We believe taxpayers have a right to expect that their money is spent honestly, prudently and wisely—instead of disappearing down the ratholes of sloth, corruption and political handouts. We believe natural resources need to be allocated fairly and transparently. We believe that business, when honestly conducted, is good for the nation. We believe in the creation of opportunity for the greatest number.

We will support Modi, Rahul, Kejriwal and every other politician every time they do the right thing. But no one should expect a blank cheque from us. Our sole allegiance is to our reader, not to any politician or party.

Is that a peace offering to NaMo? As in `We will support you if you do not dig too deep into our misdeeds'? Anyhow, I should prefer to have the opinion of our resident conspiracy theory experts on the board what to make of it.

[IndraD]

this article has come as a big surprise !

[ramana]

They should be the first ones to be looked into even more than Hindu. For these are paid media and have abused the freedom of press to propogate lies.

[RoyG]

Haha, timesofindia coming out with that garbage at this stage can only mean that they fear Modi. As we come closer to GE expect all these editors and media people to slowly start trickling out of the country.

[IndraD]

they are so honest that they didn't publish my critical comments on this article either, but what has made them publish this article?

[ramana]

The PP guy gives COngress 0-33 seats with max from Telangana. Most likely someone from Telangana will be Leader of Congress party in Lok Sabha after elections.

[SwamyG]

I tend to believe that 30 seats in UP is underestimate. BJP, if things carry on as they are, will cross 40-45 by April. UP will be a game changer this time. So even in cas of overestimates, UP will balance them out.

They have to reach 180 without UP. If they can, then UP will give them huge number of seats. Because the effect percolates. regions surrounding UP is so charged up that BJP wins 170-180 without UP, it is going to have compounding effect in UP in BJP's favor.

It may sound overestimate now, but know that Tsunamo has not yet hit India in its full magnitude. From now on it is the skill of BJP and Amitbhai to time that wave to coincide with LS polls.

For the first time, in a decade or so, one feels BJP has prepared well to meet Congress. Every army needs an able inspirational General. In Modi we have one, and it is easy for cadres to be motivated and fight for a cause. Congress has given the country a cause - Congress Mukt Bharat. Social media is maturing, and Modi has been able to use it well to create a fan following among the intellectuals and middle class. Hopefully, the communication reaches the next set of people in villages and towns.

[SwamyG]

Kumudam Reporter Magazine survey of Scenario 1 from TN. It is along the expected lines for AIADMK and DMK. However, BJP seems to be doing better. Congress? Naa....

It is all % of Vote Share.

Scenario-1 : All parties stand on their own, without any alliance.

http://bongumedia.blogspot.in/2014/01/t ... 4-lok.html

[SwamyG]

http://bongumedia.blogspot.in/2014/01/k ... rt-ii.html

Scenario-2 : Four-way contest with DMK Alliance (DMK, VCK, PT, MMK), ADMK Alliance (ADMK, CPI, CPIM), BJP Alliance (BJP, PMK, MDMK, DMDK) and Congress.

[SwamyG]

Scenario-3: Three-way contest with DMK-DMDK-Congress Alliance (DMK, Congress,DMDK, VCK, PT, MMK), ADMK Alliance (ADMK, CPI, CPIM), BJP Alliance (BJP, MDMK, PMK).

[RajeshA]

SwamyG ji,

Thanks for sharing these graphs. Really incredible with BJP at 18% and Congress at 4%. It gives DMDK a chance to expand using some NaMo wind AND a seat in the next NDA govt..

I'm expecting Scenario 2.

[RajeshA]

The PP guy gives COngress 0-33 seats with max from Telangana. Most likely someone from Telangana will be Leader of Congress party in Lok Sabha after elections.

The PP guy is also overly harsh on TDP.

[SwamyG]

SwamyG ji,

Thanks for sharing these graphs. Really incredible with BJP at 18% and Congress at 4%. It gives DMDK a chance to expand using some NaMo wind AND a seat in the next NDA govt..

I'm expecting Scenario 2.

Oh no problem. Somebody did the hard work Moi just the messenger. The rumors are that Ahmed Patel is meeting or has already met Vijaykanth (DMDK). If that happens it will be Congress + DMDK. Keep the fingers crossed and hope that does not happen.

[muraliravi]

If Congress receives say 81 seats, so 54 Congress MPs would have to agree for a split. What would be the glue among these 54 MPs without any strong kshatrap to whom they could look up to? May be NaMo could offer some of them some ministership, but would 54 agree to join him?

Let's also not forget most of the Congress MPs would have been voted with substantial Muslim votes, so magnetic pull from NaMo would not be sufficient, and on their own they would lack the leadership to go ahead with the split.

So I don't think a split in Congress in really possible.

Rajesh ji, we need only 1/3 of the MP's for a split, I dont think we need 2/3.

[muraliravi]

I hope BJP will never need these guys, but here are some thoughts

RLD, JDU, TRS, & JDS can be broken up very easily or their MP's can quite easily be forced to support the Ram Temple.

DMK and YSRCP, you may not even need these tactics, they will just support. These two parties, for all their atheist and x-tian bases are pure money based parties, you feed them, they will support you. I am not saying that is moral especially for a cause like the temple at Ayodhya, but sometimes these chanakyan stuff needs to be done in the background. DMK may oppose if MK is alive until then.

Even bigger is if INC does really plummet below 100 (I still see them crossing 100), then INC WILL BREAK and I am sure we can find 33 Hindu minded congressis of the old mould even today (though they may not say that when with the congress)

MuraliRavi-ji,
Since we have been estimating the max. of the Congress, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to produce a minimum estimate of the Congress.

AP-0, Arunachal-0, Assam-4 (believe me - BJP has a decent chance of winning in 8 of the 14 seats (not saying it will happen), 2 others are impossible for the Cong.), Bihar-0, Chhattisgarh-1, Delhi-0, Goa-0, Gujarat-1, Haryana-1, HP-1, JK-0, Jharkhand-0, Karnataka-10, Kerala-5, MP-3, Maharashtra-9, Manipur-1, Meghalaya-1, Mizoram-1, Nagaland-0, Odisha-3, Punjab-2, Rajasthan-0, Sikkim-0, TN-0, Tripura-0, UP-2, Uttarakhand-0, WB-1, UTs-1

Total-47

You will need only 16 people to break the Congress then, and even in the Congress, I can find 16 honest men/women.

OMG, Nagesh ji if this happens (and as you laid out, it can happen), i will be on cloud 9. But if this is how congress performs, BJP will hit too much on its own, we wont need those 16 MP's and the tag we will get along with it.

[Pranav]

R Jagannathan ‏@TheJaggi 55s

Is Chidambaram in Davos to rubbish political rivals? Why should taxpayer pay for his junket when he plays politics? http://bit.ly/1aKVRDp

The thread has become backup of twitter

OT: At one point of time BRF was a major Indian discussion forum, but IMO the restrictive registration procedure has made it lose traction. Now, IMO, critical mass has been lost, and it may be difficult to recover. Continuous infusion of fresh blood needed to avoid becoming an echo-chamber.

[Muppalla]

SwamyG ji,

Thanks for sharing these graphs. Really incredible with BJP at 18% and Congress at 4%. It gives DMDK a chance to expand using some NaMo wind AND a seat in the next NDA govt..

I'm expecting Scenario 2.

That is why probably the rumor is that Jaya is planning to go with BJP as pre-poll alliance.

[Muppalla]

MuraliRavi-ji,
Since we have been estimating the max. of the Congress, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to produce a minimum estimate of the Congress.

AP-0, Arunachal-0, Assam-4 (believe me - BJP has a decent chance of winning in 8 of the 14 seats (not saying it will happen), 2 others are impossible for the Cong.), Bihar-0, Chhattisgarh-1, Delhi-0, Goa-0, Gujarat-1, Haryana-1, HP-1, JK-0, Jharkhand-0, Karnataka-10, Kerala-5, MP-3, Maharashtra-9, Manipur-1, Meghalaya-1, Mizoram-1, Nagaland-0, Odisha-3, Punjab-2, Rajasthan-0, Sikkim-0, TN-0, Tripura-0, UP-2, Uttarakhand-0, WB-1, UTs-1

Total-47

You will need only 16 people to break the Congress then, and even in the Congress, I can find 16 honest men/women.

That is why probably PP guy gave 33 seats.

[pankajs]

Before calling in CBI, Hooda govt approved, praised Khemka move http://iexp.in/lna60167
-------------------------------------------------->>

Hooda’s approval came after L S M Salins, then financial commissioner and principal secretary, food & supplies, referred it to him, writing, “As a new technological advance is involved, CM may also kindly see for approval.” On December 18, 2008, Hooda’s additional principal secretary K K Khandelwal issued a note that the chief minister had approved the decision to use galvalume sheets. Khandelwal, also the spokesperson for the government, did not respond to telephone calls and text messages from The Indian Express. A few months after Khemka introduced galvalume sheets, the government went on to laud the innovation, according to a document from a review meeting held by the chief secretary on November 16, 2009. “HSWC has taken the initiative for construction of food storage godowns with innovative technology using state-of-the-art galvalume sheets,” the document reads.

..
The letter, accessed by The Indian Express, says he stands vindicated with the Food Corporation of India having issued a circular in May 2013 that makes galvalume sheets mandatory for roofing. Among the questions raised by the government, one is about his insistence on using galvalume sheets manufactured by Korean company Dong Bu. Khemka writes that he insisted on Dong Bu, “a world leader in manufacturing galvalume sheets”, to ensure that quality is not compromised. His letter includes a table of the comparative rates for 18 contracts for galvalume awarded in India. It shows the contract awarded during his time as the lowest priced, with Rs 1,127 per square meter.

[Shanmukh]

OMG, Nagesh ji if this happens (and as you laid out, it can happen), i will be on cloud 9. But if this is how congress performs, BJP will hit too much on its own, we wont need those 16 MP's and the tag we will get along with it.

It is a possibility, but the estimate you put out is much more likely, in all honesty. Congress will still hit around 90 at least, IMO. But nevertheless, the Congress is on a very sticky wicket this time, and they know it. Which is why we are seeing all these Khujliwala dramas.

[krishnan]

my driver seems to also like the idea of modi coming to power. but i am not having much hope for TN to improve any much at least in infrastructure

[LakshO]

Haryana 10 - 3

Atri sir, in one of your previous posts, you had posted the above for BJP's seats in GE2014.

Yesterday, Headlines Today showed results of a survey on Haryana for elections in 2014. They have predicted 7 seats for BJP+ & 1 seat for CongI+. The GE2009 tally was 9 for CongI+ and 1 for BJP+. So, a major switch is in store

FWIW...

<TV alert>
Today, Rahul Kanwal @ HT has nation wide survey for GE2014 beginning 7 PM - 11 PM IST. Also, CNN-IBN will hopefully cover Haryana today beginning 8 PM IST. These will help learned BRFites to calibrate/validate their datapoints for a more accurate number for NaMO/BJP.
</TV alert>

All in all, a busy evening

[member_20317]

Tenth Schedule of the Constitution by the 91st Constitutional Amendment Act, 2003 during the NDA rule

http://swapsushias.blogspot.in/2010/10/anti-defection-law.html#.UuCj3RC6bcc

2/3rd for merger/split.

Best is a carefully calibrated resignation route.

[AjayKK]

Timesofindia article is reminder to AAP ke BAAP to release pending payment.

[pankajs]

Pawan Durani ‏@PawanDurani 2h

No records about the contribution of Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose to India’s freedom struggle - In response to RTI filed by Dev Bhattacharya

[rohitv]

<Del>

[rohitv]

<Del>

[rohitv]

CSDS Delhi AAP - 48%, BJP 30% INC 16%
This was before Dharna Drama

CSDS Haryana Congress 34%, BJP 20% INLD 15% AAP 17% HJC 8%


CSDS for Punjab - SAD+BJP 45% (34%+11%), Congress 27%, AAP 14%