Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 13 Feb 2014 13:10

niran wrote:Pepper spray it is, sarry for the mijtik

Yes pepper spray. Congress used its MPs as Goondas and attacked non-Telangana MP while introducing AP reorg bill. MP L Rajagopal then used pepper spray as self-defense.

This is according to Andhra Jyothy media editor who was present there. Rest are Congress spins.

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 13 Feb 2014 14:26

Then, in a matter of seconds, Rajagopal produced his pepper spray, and the Speaker, Finance Minister P Chidambaram, Kamal Nath, Sushilkumar Shinde, Rahul Gandhi and others started running out of the House . The prime minister and Congress president Sonia Gandhi were not present in the House.

In the ruckus, Sharad Yadav fell and some Congressmen punched Rajagopal.

chaos in loksabha

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 13 Feb 2014 18:19

C Voter Survey on Assam on TimesNow

Cong 29% vote share, BJP 30% vote share. However, Congress is still getting 7 seats as opposed 5 for BJP. What this means is that either Upper Assam or Central Assam are getting completely polarised in favour of BJP (the are not showing the breakup of data). If the BJP can build on this momentum, we are going to see BJP win around 9 seats in Assam.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 13 Feb 2014 18:30

Mafia has little chance whereever it is in direct ffight with NM led BJP. Only huge faithful votes% or a very good/big goonda/moneybag local leader in few seats. AP is already gone (33 seats) Rajasthan and Delhi (30 seats) Except in KA they are not going get double digit seats in no state. Only question is how many NM will get. In Assam AGP people has to seriously thing and jump to NDA or even merge AGP with BJP. With that Indic forces will rule Assam for few decades to come and reverse the BD invasions.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 13 Feb 2014 18:37

Virendra S Rathore ‏@virendrarathore
When #PepperSpray MPs were acting like apes .. 4 Bangladeshi MPs were in the #Parliament as guests, to learn how Indian Democracy works ...

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 13 Feb 2014 18:40

Virendra wrote:Virendra S Rathore ‏@virendrarathore
When #PepperSpray MPs were acting like apes .. 4 Bangladeshi MPs were in the #Parliament , as guests to learn how Indian Democracy works ...

We are one peepal onlee!

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 13 Feb 2014 18:49

Anyone watching TimesNow ? Another round of Electo Analysis going on ...

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 13 Feb 2014 19:03

Aai la ... Cvoter says J&K will BJP with the largest vote share .. more than PDP and NC.

added later ... fast forward to maharastra : ornab and sidekick alternatively muttering 'this is a cong ncp rout' 'this is a cong ncp rout'
BJP Sena 41% with 30 seats, Cong NCP 30% ... end up with 13. MNS with 1

gashish · Post by **gashish** » 13 Feb 2014 19:21

Cvoter/TimesNow opinion poll predicting rout for Cong+NCP in MH: BJP+SS =15+15=30!! with 41% vote share

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Feb 2014 19:22

Looks like NDA might get around 240. So NDA might win in MH. Nice.

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 13 Feb 2014 19:26

not very surprising..when asked about better PM candidate..95% of traditional MNS voters opted for Sri NaMo

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 13 Feb 2014 19:30

What are the Cvoter/TimesNow figures for Bihar? TIA

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 13 Feb 2014 19:32

the devil is always in the details guys, what is the detail, not summary

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Feb 2014 19:33

What is the track record of CVoter?

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 13 Feb 2014 19:34

abhik wrote:What are the Cvoter/TimesNow figures for Bihar? TIA

From what i remember BJP 21, JDU arround 5 , Cong 1, RJD 12
But this is before the Cong RJD alliance

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 13 Feb 2014 19:42

Amol.D wrote:
abhik wrote:What are the Cvoter/TimesNow figures for Bihar? TIA
From what i remember BJP 21, JDU arround 5 , Cong 1, RJD 12
But this is before the Cong RJD alliance

I think in this survey, they have indeed accounted for the alliance, check yashwant deshmukh's twitter

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 13 Feb 2014 20:06

muraliravi wrote:
Amol.D wrote:...
From what i remember BJP 21, JDU arround 5 , Cong 1, RJD 12
But this is before the Cong RJD alliance
I think in this survey, they have indeed accounted for the alliance, check yashwant deshmukh's twitter

I thought i heard them say they have not taken it into account, but very possible i heard it wrong.

Just now Tamil Nadu results from CVoter, Amma gets 27 seats. DMK 5, Cong 1, BJP 0. There are other ***K parties on the chart with 1 or 2 seats but i can never remember who is with BJP amongst them

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 13 Feb 2014 20:10

NDA 218 with UP. UP is a dissappointing 34 seats from CVoter.
A bit weird the results from UP. SP is 20 and BSP is 21. Dont know much about UP politics but I would be very surprised if SP is not much lower

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Feb 2014 20:11

So even with 34 seats projected for UP, NDA is projected to be around 218. Others are doing good.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 13 Feb 2014 20:17

NDA 227 but huge scope for improvement specially in UP.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 13 Feb 2014 20:18

Supratik wrote:NDA 227 but huge scope for improvement specially in UP.

Even 21 in Bihar is not impressive. We need to go to 30

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 13 Feb 2014 20:20

No gains in TN for BJP.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 13 Feb 2014 20:22

Jode nahin, tode: UPA epitaph will read – divided, but didn’t rule

We have to tweet this as much as Possible

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 13 Feb 2014 20:26

any c voter site with % sample etc etc?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 13 Feb 2014 20:30

Amol.D wrote: I thought i heard them say they have not taken it into account, but very possible i heard it wrong.

Just now Tamil Nadu results from CVoter, Amma gets 27 seats. DMK 5, Cong 1, BJP 0. There are other ***K parties on the chart with 1 or 2 seats but i can never remember who is with BJP amongst them

Actually in their jan survey they did not take it into account and I think they gave BJP 30% vote and 22 seats, now in feb, they are giving 31% vote and 21 seats.

In UP 34 seats from cvoter is not bad at all. A month back they said 30 for bjp, 24 for bsp and 20 for sp

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Feb 2014 20:41

Even if we take all these numbers with a pinch of salt, it is clear that BJP has to nullify the regional and local parties. Congress all set to be humiliated. BJP/Modi's job now is to mop all the sundry seats from these local parties.

Boils down to ticket distribution and picking the right regional leaders.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 13 Feb 2014 20:48

The recent surveys suggest that the NDA has reached saturation in its core areas. Maybe they can add 10 more seats at best. They need to concentrate on UP, Bihar and the non-core areas to get those extra seats to reach 272. Add 20 odd seats from TDP and TRS if the survey is right. Otherwise he has to depend on more allies which may put his PMship in jeopardy.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 13 Feb 2014 20:55

Supratik wrote:The recent surveys suggest that the NDA has reached saturation in its core areas. Maybe they can add 10 more seats at best. They need to concentrate on UP, Bihar and the non-core areas to get those extra seats to reach 272. Add 20 odd seats from TDP and TRS if the survey is right. Otherwise he has to depend on more allies which may put his PMship in jeopardy.

waise bhi, UPA 2 has ruined the financials so much that it us a UPPPPPPPPPPPPHIIIIIIILL task for Modi to pull us out in 2-3 years. Jaya may not be be a bad partner when it comes to pushing bold economic reforms. Unfortunately modi might have to engage in some unwise economic/populist measures (definitely not as bad as UPA's measures) to win 2019. They have just razed some many things. SME's have virtually shut down in many of india's industrialized states, ah dont get me started. Even our human pool for good engineers to prop up small scale manufacturing (which is the backbone of a healthy economy) is depleted by this much advertized IT revolution. We have probably the worst quality of engineers we turn out every year. 99% of the mech engineers who graduate every year cant even do a basic design, something which even an average mech graduate in the 80's would do with ease. So lot of ground work is needed before we can get a robust economy running. Just filling the holes these guys have created will take 5 years easily.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 13 Feb 2014 22:02

Muraliji, expect a reversal of many acts passed by the UPA like Land acquisition act.

http://www.firstbiz.com/economy/will-dr ... 75870.html

This link above gives an indication that economics is going to be a rocking affair, with no stones left unturned to turn around the mess. Even if he announces these kind of measures and gets a majority without coalition hiccups that Mamta's and Left provide, the markets will gain lakhs of crores at one shot even before he takes over as PM! Money will even start flowing in on anticipation. Expect massive inflows into the construction, cement, steel industries. Expect POSCOs, Steel majors to start almost buildups, expect stalled mining activities to start up again, expect stalled power setups improving upon their efficiencies. Expect ruthlessness in developmental activity. Expect a great thrust in developing skilled labor institutions, particularly in backward areas. Knowing Modi i feel he will hit the ground running with a slew of measures. No time to waste. We have to get this guy up there. No alternative. We will be wrecked otherwise.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 13 Feb 2014 22:19

Supratik wrote:The recent surveys suggest that the NDA has reached saturation in its core areas. Maybe they can add 10 more seats at best. They need to concentrate on UP, Bihar and the non-core areas to get those extra seats to reach 272. Add 20 odd seats from TDP and TRS if the survey is right. Otherwise he has to depend on more allies which may put his PMship in jeopardy.

Well - there are a few areas they can tap a bit more. Just listing my thoughts.

Andhra - Telangana is lost for this election for BJP. They should double down on SeemaAndhra. The BJP can use this mess, poach aggressively on the SeemaAndhra front (of the 6 MPs who have been expelled from the Cong, BJP can get 4 of them). Add Daggubati couple, Prabhakara Rao, Krishnam Raju, etc, and BJP can win 5 seats from AP, in alliance with TDP. TDP should be made to yield around 6-7 seats (at least) in SeemaAndhra seats to accommodate the BJP heavyweights.

Assam - The latest C Voter showed the BJP hitting 30% of the votes in Assam, but getting only 5 seats, while the Congress is getting 7 seas with 29%. I suspect that the BJP vote share is spread out everywhere, while the Congress is still going strong in Central Assam and Upper Assam. With a focus on upper Assam, the BJP can shatter the Gogoi hold on upper Assam, and seize the Hindu belt. BJP should get all seats in the Hindu belt. So expect around 8-9 seats.

Karnataka - BJP is getting only around 10 seats or so now. If the BJP focusses on developing the NaMo goodwill with good candidates, it can get upto 18-20 seats. BJP should improve its Karnataka tally.

Tamil Nadu. There is a huge NaMo wave in the state. The BJP should work to get around 5 seats on its own in the state, and add another 5 to its allies.

Just with this, the BJP can get up to around 25 seats more. BJP can hit around 235-240 on its own, with the TDP getting another 10, Maharashtra allies - 20, SAD, HJC, etc - 10, This should take the NDA comfortably past the 272 mark.

Added: The NSS (Nair organisation) is playing coy in Kerala. If NSS supports the BJP, the BJP, with the support it is already getting in Kerala, might just surprise everyone and win both Kozhikode and Kasargod.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 13 Feb 2014 22:25

BJP has room to grow in Karnataka, Jharkhand, Assam and Kerala.
TN and WB are same - regional parties are too entrenched.
Also, the C-Vote poll doesn't say how close the winning/losing margins are,
statistical errors need to be taken into consideration. me think that the field
is too wild to speculate. NDA can reach 250+ in its own strength if committed
voters show up at the polling stations.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 13 Feb 2014 22:43

I would say 227 NDA (from C voter survey) + from BJP core areas (including KT) 10 more + TDP/TRS 20 more = 257. They need another 15 from UP, Bihar.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 13 Feb 2014 23:10

"Assam - … I suspect that the BJP vote share is spread out everywhere, while the Congress is still going strong in Central Assam and Upper Assam. With a focus on upper Assam, the BJP can shatter the Gogoi hold on upper Assam, and seize the Hindu belt. BJP should get all seats in the Hindu belt. So expect around 8-9 seats."

In general BJP support either seems to have saturated or support base seems to be spread.

However Bangladeshi ghuspetya - everywhere - first capture low lying fertile regions and then move on all over the country!

BJP should follow this as well as move a bit of saturated areas to other areas - with same ideas.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Feb 2014 23:10

nageshks, BJP never had any chances in Telangana at all.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Feb 2014 23:14

Having regional parties is healthy for long term democracy and people's aspirations. It can act as a check or restraint on a national party doing what it pleases. Foreign polices have to take into account regional sentiments, and regional parties can provide a channel for such dialog.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 13 Feb 2014 23:39

harbans wrote:Muraliji, expect a reversal of many acts passed by the UPA like Land acquisition act.

http://www.firstbiz.com/economy/will-dr ... 75870.html

This link above gives an indication that economics is going to be a rocking affair, with no stones left unturned to turn around the mess. Even if he announces these kind of measures and gets a majority without coalition hiccups that Mamta's and Left provide, the markets will gain lakhs of crores at one shot even before he takes over as PM! Money will even start flowing in on anticipation. Expect massive inflows into the construction, cement, steel industries. Expect POSCOs, Steel majors to start almost buildups, expect stalled mining activities to start up again, expect stalled power setups improving upon their efficiencies. Expect ruthlessness in developmental activity. Expect a great thrust in developing skilled labor institutions, particularly in backward areas. Knowing Modi i feel he will hit the ground running with a slew of measures. No time to waste. We have to get this guy up there. No alternative. We will be wrecked otherwise.

Yes sir, we have to get him. BTW thanks for replying on the Namo thread about uttarakhand. Your observations are supported by cvoter and other surveys, BJP getting all 5 there.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 13 Feb 2014 23:40

C-voter always was conservative in estimating the challenger/opposition. The guy openly says so. The Margin of error gets on to reduction of opposition. This 87 seater of Congress is going to go down and down only. Any type of alliances are not going to work. If T-bill does not pass that 87 will become 82 instantaneously. The great part I see is a rout in Maharashtra. NCP=5 and INC =8 , MNS=1, 15BJP, 15SS and rest to others.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 14 Feb 2014 00:37

SwamyG wrote:Looks like NDA might get around 240. So NDA might win in MH. Nice.

The NDA numbers (from all pollsters) keep moving upwards each week. The election is not next week, it is in May (12-14 weeks from now).

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Feb 2014 00:48

KLP Dubey wrote:
SwamyG wrote:Looks like NDA might get around 240. So NDA might win in MH. Nice.
The NDA numbers (from all pollsters) keep moving upwards each week. The election is not next week, it is in May (12-14 weeks from now).

Phase 1 is Mid April, barely 8 weeks away

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/lok-s ... 23465.html

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 14 Feb 2014 00:51

UK is a done deal. UK was a BJP state, it was a close win for congress in assembly (mainly because of BJP infighting). The Kedarnath tragedy and its mishandling already sunk con. It is 5-0 and will be with big margins.