Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 22 Feb 2014 20:30

niran wrote:@ anmolji that means bjp has 80% and above chances of a win.
these data are collected mohalla by mohalla unlike earlier
when it would be from the neta mushy

@fanne saar,
Tara Kant jha wasn't going to get tikit, so he proposed his nephew then his cowjinn brother
when all was shot down he did the usual took a hike.

Your data is probably the most believable. I was in UP (sasural in LKO) last two weeks of Dec. Almost everyone I talked to (family, friends, domestics, people in random sarkari and "pribhate" offices that I struck up conversation with) claimed they were NaMo voters this time. No Mulla-ayam or Mayawati, even in the sarkari offices where most of the babus and clerks are "quota-wallas". Let us see how it plays out on election day.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 22 Feb 2014 21:18

niran wrote:
muraliravi wrote:Abp nielsen feb survey

Bjp gains 1% vote and 5 seats compared to jan in UP taking tally to 40 seats.

Bjp loses 3% vote and 3 seats compared to jan in bihar although being largest party with 21 seats

Nitish gains 3% vote and 3 seats improves tally to 9.

I am surprised about bihar
Please! Saar!, do not lose any sleep over this, In Bihar, Nitish and Lalo and Cong are losing ground fast
as fast as farts evaporates, notice the drama of Bihar bandh in March for ishpayshul status, the plan was Nitish
do some dharna and bandh and Congress agrees to the status just before EC announces dates and the model code of conduct
comes into effect, what Nitish can do Bihar BJP can do better, they have called Bihar bandh on 28 of Feb. now if Nitish lathi charges
BJP his March bandh will be moot, no? and BJP will play the victim expect at least few tankers of tears, in UP except western UPs 14 seats rest are in green zone for BJP as per data 21 hours ago.

Niran sir,

I agree with you. I mean there is nothing jdu has done in the last month to gain any vote share.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 22 Feb 2014 21:47

Word from the ground in TN from a mid level party functionary - BJP is slowly but surely gaining acceptance among four groups, apparently, with NaMo's PM candidacy. Also, unlike the old BJP heads, Pon Radhakrishnan is actually active, and has been working hard to build BJP.

1) Pon Radhakrishnan himself is a Nadar, and BJP is finding some traction among the Nadars, particularly in the far south.

2) Apparently, the BJP is building many NaMo fish stalls all along the coastline, and organising awareness about fishermen's plights in south. Fisherfolk are BJP's second constituency.

3) With the Kongu parties allying with the BJP, BJP is finding some traction among the Gounders. Grapevine has it that Nagaraj is being wooed with a Ministry, if he will merge his group with the BJP. While Nagaraj himself has not said anything, BJP is finding Gounders being sympathetic.

4) Educated middle class. With NaMo's development credentials, these people are willing to give BJP a chance for the first time.

Would welcome any inputs from the resident experts.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Feb 2014 22:09

Thanthi TV - Tamilnadu LS 2014 Pre-poll Survey Results

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 22 Feb 2014 22:22

muraliravi wrote:
niran wrote:Abp nielsen feb survey

Bjp gains 1% vote and 5 seats compared to jan in UP taking tally to 40 seats.

Bjp loses 3% vote and 3 seats compared to jan in bihar although being largest party with 21 seats

Nitish gains 3% vote and 3 seats improves tally to 9.

I am surprised about bihar
Please! Saar!, do not lose any sleep over this, In Bihar, Nitish and Lalo and Cong are losing ground fast
as fast as farts evaporates, notice the drama of Bihar bandh in March for ishpayshul status, the plan was Nitish
do some dharna and bandh and Congress agrees to the status just before EC announces dates and the model code of conduct
comes into effect, what Nitish can do Bihar BJP can do better, they have called Bihar bandh on 28 of Feb. now if Nitish lathi charges
BJP his March bandh will be moot, no? and BJP will play the victim expect at least few tankers of tears, in UP except western UPs 14 seats rest are in green zone for BJP as per data 21 hours ago.
Niran sir,

I agree with you. I mean there is nothing jdu has done in the last month to gain any vote share.

Niku is a "kati Patang", that too without "Manjha". Maar dala re D4 in isko chane ke jhaad par chadhakr. Badi daya aati hai.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Feb 2014 00:29

Sushma gives her blessings to Sreeramulu return to BJP?: Bangalore Mirror

BJP seems to be getting momentum in Karnataka!

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 23 Feb 2014 00:49

Nagesh: if twitter is any reliable, I hear Salem has a huge support for Modi. Maybe that will translate into a seat from the Nilgiris. Take with a pinch of salt, some BJP IT cell member was buoyant in SM.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 23 Feb 2014 00:54

ABP News-Neilsen survey: NDA to get 236 seats

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 868_1.html

The BJP-led NDA is likely to bag 236 seats with the main party getting 217 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress will be reduced to double-digits at 73 of the 92 seats projected for the UPA, while the Aam Aadmi Party is likely to get 10 seats, a survey said Saturday.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Feb 2014 01:15

RajeshA wrote:Thanthi TV - Tamilnadu LS 2014 Pre-poll Survey Results

wtf. 30% to BJP in TN

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 23 Feb 2014 01:22

RajeshA wrote:Thanthi TV - Tamilnadu LS 2014 Pre-poll Survey Results

This is highly encouraging. This channel is projecting 6/14 so far for NDA in Tamil Nadu.

Also as mentioned earlier, the NDA national predictions are going up by several seats each week. India 272+ is very much a realistic mission.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Feb 2014 01:26

RajeshA wrote:Sushma gives her blessings to Sreeramulu return to BJP?: Bangalore Mirror

BJP seems to be getting momentum in Karnataka!

This has wider implications. They are putting Reddy brothers, Jagan and TDP in a competitive spirit of who will be part of NDA. One thing they are ensuring this time is "you all better listen to me otherwise we can play one Talib against other Talib". Some of they will either listen or CBI will be changed to keep a hanging sword over the neck forever.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 23 Feb 2014 02:10

Muppalla wrote: This has wider implications. They are putting Reddy brothers, Jagan and TDP in a competitive spirit of who will be part of NDA. One thing they are ensuring this time is "you all better listen to me otherwise we can play one Talib against other Talib". Some of they will either listen or CBI will be changed to keep a hanging sword over the neck forever.

Muppalla-ji,
Out of curiosity, is it possible to cut the EJ connection with Jagan, using the CBI sword?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Feb 2014 02:15

nageshks wrote:
Muppalla wrote: This has wider implications. They are putting Reddy brothers, Jagan and TDP in a competitive spirit of who will be part of NDA. One thing they are ensuring this time is "you all better listen to me otherwise we can play one Talib against other Talib". Some of they will either listen or CBI will be changed to keep a hanging sword over the neck forever.
Muppalla-ji,
Out of curiosity, is it possible to cut the EJ connection with Jagan, using the CBI sword?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 23 Feb 2014 02:42

Muppalla wrote:
RajeshA wrote:Thanthi TV - Tamilnadu LS 2014 Pre-poll Survey Results
wtf. 30% to BJP in TN

They have put all of BJP's allies except MDMK in BJP kitty. Even so, 30% seems like an overestimate to me. 15-20% would be closer to the truth.

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 23 Feb 2014 03:52

Will be in desh next week.
Will try to gauge the public preception and try to do my own survey. Guru log any app avialable on android for survey?????
Will be travelling in Haryana mostly and Alwar and Jaipur.
Right now reports from my own sources is people who got swayed by AAP are finding it laughing stock. If AK cannot handle a small state like Delhi what can he do???
Resignation has created an adverse effect on voters.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 23 Feb 2014 06:07

http://www.abplive.in/video/video_india ... wlFrvldXX4

- Delhi AAP =6, BJP =1,
Haryana - BJP -6, Rest all parties 1 each (AAP/HJC/CON/INLD/IND)
JK BJP = 1, CONG 1
HP bjp =4
UK BJP =5
Punjab , BJP =3, SAD = 7, CHANDIGARH = AAP1
Rajasthan 20 con 5

niran · Post by **niran** » 23 Feb 2014 08:38

RajeshA wrote:Thanthi TV - Tamilnadu LS 2014 Pre-poll Survey Results

two interesting graphs
- the percentage of people in favor of NaMo as PM NaMo consistently scores 50% plus
his rivals the best they manage is 21%, logically it should be landslide for NaMo, yes? now am getting the why? NaMo
has been campaigning vote for me, do not look at the candidate.

-the percentage of people against AAp is consistently above 82%, Papu is doomed, his adopted birder AK420 is doomed
who else is there? it should be align with NaMo or else..... find some dark corner to suck thumbs.
I know, I know, if wishes were horses, Indian election is more complicated than deciphering how to stop ageing. sigh!

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 23 Feb 2014 09:26

dont depend too much on TN...they them self dunno who they will vote for. Each party has its own share of die hard voters who will never change, and what ever people are left out dunno whether they will make any diff

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 23 Feb 2014 10:50

The popularity of NAMO in Bengal as a PM is way on top of that of Didi. BJP has been increasing its vote share to now a good 16% but still there are no seats - why? NAMO lovers are spread thin?

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 23 Feb 2014 10:53

I would say that once NAMO forms the govt, he should teach the delhi billies some lesson. How about making Magadh the capital and leave the delhi billies to at the mercy of PAAP?

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 23 Feb 2014 10:59

In Indian politics grey hair matters or being a lady matters. NAMO is at the right age. RAGA will have to wait for another 20 years if at all he can pull it off ( chances of that is remote as he lacks the skills ) and her sister cannot be that lead as it will under mine RAGA and their mother has run her course. So it is a steep down hill drive for the jwaharlal family from here like all other family based dynasties around the world, after having been in the run for 65 years! The question is who will fill the vaccume. The federal front could actually!

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 23 Feb 2014 11:00

ABP is suspect editorially. They're as establishment as they come (OK, not as bad as rrNDTV maybe which's an underground bar to jump over) and I wouldn't buy their surveys much anyway. Who knows if they aren't positioning for EVM mischief by starting out as 'reasonable' to build cred, eh?

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 23 Feb 2014 11:35

ABP says Delhi will be 6-1 AAP-BJP, eh? We'll see...

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Feb 2014 12:07

fanne wrote:http://www.abplive.in/video/video_india ... wlFrvldXX4

- Delhi AAP =6, BJP =1,
Haryana - BJP -6, Rest all parties 1 each (AAP/HJC/CON/INLD/IND)
JK BJP = 1, CONG 1
HP bjp =4
UK BJP =5
Punjab , BJP =3, SAD = 7, CHANDIGARH = AAP1
Rajasthan 20 con 5

Is it really possible for Delhi's 6-1 in favor of AAP? Punjab has no congress at all? Rajasthan - 5 INC is so doubtful.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 23 Feb 2014 12:10

Don't trust ABP. They are NDTV v2.0. Bloody CIA agents.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Feb 2014 12:18

If there is going to be any large-scale use of EVM magic, then I think it is going to be in Coastal Andhra, and maybe Delhi.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 23 Feb 2014 12:47

Only thing believable in that ABP survey is J&K . Rest is all pulled out of musharraf only.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 23 Feb 2014 13:04

RajeshA wrote:If there is going to be any large-scale use of EVM magic, then I think it is going to be in Coastal Andhra, and maybe Delhi.

National media is creating impression that Congress with TRS sweeps Telangana and YSRC with Congress sweeps Residual-AP.
Local media other than YSRC gives different impression. Some samples of local news at city/village level also give different impression.

I'm surprised India today carrying exaggerated numbers to give impression of TRS+INC and INC+YSRC win.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Feb 2014 13:12

ShyamSP wrote:
RajeshA wrote:If there is going to be any large-scale use of EVM magic, then I think it is going to be in Coastal Andhra, and maybe Delhi.
National media is creating impression that Congress with TRS sweeps Telangana and YSRC with Congress sweeps Residual-AP.
Local media other than YSRC gives different impression. Some samples of local news at city/village level also give different impression.

I'm surprised India today carrying exaggerated numbers to give impression of TRS+INC and INC+YSRC win.

Yes and the question we need to ask ourselves is why is national media building up YSRCP? Who is prodding them to do it?

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 23 Feb 2014 17:20

^^ Exactly. Telangana split and Jagan to power are foreign projects. That's why SONIA is bent upon executing them

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 23 Feb 2014 17:35

Twitter is filled with buzz on alliance between BJP and LJP of PAswan in Bihar. Is it true?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Feb 2014 19:13

gandharva wrote:Twitter is filled with buzz on alliance between BJP and LJP of PAswan in Bihar. Is it true?

This guy is very big unreliable person in all aspects. He is the one who was minister and left NDA saying he can't stay due to Gujarat.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Feb 2014 19:15

RajeshA wrote:If there is going to be any large-scale use of EVM magic, then I think it is going to be in Coastal Andhra, and maybe Delhi.

ShyamSP wrote: National media is creating impression that Congress with TRS sweeps Telangana and YSRC with Congress sweeps Residual-AP.
Local media other than YSRC gives different impression. Some samples of local news at city/village level also give different impression.

I'm surprised India today carrying exaggerated numbers to give impression of TRS+INC and INC+YSRC win.

So far entire narrative has gone per plan and on expected lines. We have to see if and when twist happens.

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 23 Feb 2014 19:23

vivek.rao wrote:^^ Exactly. Telangana split and Jagan to power are foreign projects. That's why SONIA is bent upon executing them

The plan is and has always been to create a Christian majority state in Southern India. Only the Hindus of Andhra were unable to see it.

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 23 Feb 2014 19:37

There is a strong buzz doing the rounds that SS will contest from Secunderabad. The incumbent here is former actress Jayasudha for Cong. She was know for her xtian missionary interests. The seat previously returned BJP MP Bandaru Dattatreya.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Feb 2014 19:42

SandeepA wrote:There is a strong buzz doing the rounds that SS will contest from Secunderabad. The incumbent here is former actress Jayasudha for Cong. She was know for her xtian missionary interests. The seat previously returned BJP MP Bandaru Dattatreya.

SS will only win the seat if either TRS/INC yields tactically to her or if there is TDP+BJP alliance. BJP and TDP lost that seat twice so far and with wider margins.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 23 Feb 2014 19:43

There seems something strange going on about all these surveys. Everyone I have pinged over the last few days in SA has been reporting rising support for TDP (in places like Chittor and Hindupur) - there even seems a kind of sympathy for him that he was betrayed by BJP at the last minute. But all these surveys are showing Jagan sweeping. Where is Jagan getting all these votes from?

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 23 Feb 2014 19:54

nageshks wrote:Where is Jagan getting all these votes from?

Kapus and Reddys who are finding it unviable to side with the Cong anymore + xtian converts

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 23 Feb 2014 20:01

Muppalla wrote:
SandeepA wrote:There is a strong buzz doing the rounds that SS will contest from Secunderabad. The incumbent here is former actress Jayasudha for Cong. She was know for her xtian missionary interests. The seat previously returned BJP MP Bandaru Dattatreya.
SS will only win the seat if either TRS/INC yields tactically to her or if there is TDP+BJP alliance. BJP and TDP lost that seat twice so far and with wider margins.

It may be BJP way of ensuring the political demise of D4. Force Rajnath, Jaitley, Sushma, Venkaiah to contest LS from hard states/seats to `enthuse cadre.'

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Feb 2014 20:04

nageshks wrote:There seems something strange going on about all these surveys. Everyone I have pinged over the last few days in SA has been reporting rising support for TDP (in places like Chittor and Hindupur) - there even seems a kind of sympathy for him that he was betrayed by BJP at the last minute. But all these surveys are showing Jagan sweeping. Where is Jagan getting all these votes from?

When dust settles down we will see the reality. The opposition to INC+TRS+YSRC will get traction in the coming days. Follow chinmay's tweets and he did a pretty seat-by-seat analysis something ago. Even though it was pre-split, actually it will come back to the same state. Jagan is not that good anywhere above Krishna district in AP.