Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

satya · Post by **satya** » 16 Mar 2014 19:02

nageshks wrote:I am seeing considerable hand wringing about BJP's Haryana list. I am afraid I am no great expert on Haryana politics. Can anyone comment on the BJP choice of candidates listed below?

1) Ambala - Rattan Lal Kataria (This guy was MP in 99-04 period, I think. He is the political successor of Suraj Bhan, who used to win from Ambala).
2) Kurukshetra - Rajkumar Saini
3) Sonepat - Ramesh Kaushik
4) Rohtak - Om Prakash Dhankhad (He is president of Kisan Union, I think).
5) Bhiwani-Mahendragarh - Dharamveer
6) Gurgaon - Rao Inderjit Singh (He is a Congress defector, old time enemy of Hooda, I think).
7) Faridabad - Krishnapal Gujjar (He is a sitting BJP MLA in the region).

Ambala : a reserve seat . Kataria iirc ex HPSC chairman . Corrupt but then who isn't. A fighting chance for BJP . Surajbhan was much much better than him .

Sonepat & Rohtak are two of the most safe seats for Congress even in current times . I would be very surprise if Hooda's son loses in Rohtak . Sonepat has traditionally gone with INC so will be very hard for BJP to win here .

Bhiwani-Mahendragardh : Late Ch. Bansilal ex CM of Haryana's home town is Bhiwani . His name still carries weight now his grand-daughter is current MP from this seat & her mother ( daughter -in-law of Ch. Bansilal ) a minister in Hooda's government . It might be a close fight as Dharamveer is also from this area & had defeated Ch. Bansilal in 87 assembly election iirc.

Gurgaon : BJP has the best chance here if Inderjit can spend some money on meo muslims . He did in past and he being an ahir has a good chance .

Faridabad : Gujjar in place of RamChander Bainda ( a jat but also a mining heavy weight , won from here iirc once but a hopeless MP ) . Gujjar most probably will fight against Avtar Singh Bhadana another gujjar if so it will be a close contest. Faridabad has a large number of punjabi voters & this group might pull in favor of BJP-HJC alliance .

All i can say possibly 3-1 for INC ( ROHTAK , Sonipat , Bhiwani ) - BJP ( Gurgaon ) . Ambala is unknown to me so cannot comment . Rest of them should be close fight .

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Mar 2014 20:20

Published on March 16 2014
BJP rebel outfit in Himachal heads for split: IANS

Shimla : The Himachal Lokhit Party (HLP), a political outfit formed around two years ago by BJP rebels, seems heading for a split. Party chief Maheshwar Singh Sunday removed senior leader Khushi Ram Balnatah from all posts alleging he was conniving with his former party.

In a notice to party vice president Balnatah that he had indulged in anti-party activities, four-time MP Maheshwar Singh said: "You tried to instigate workers to leave the party. You have been conniving with BJP leaders. The party will not tolerate this."

"The HLP is committed to becoming a strong third force in the state and does not want to meet the fate of other parties, which failed to sustain in the past," Maheshwar Singh said in a statement.

Reacting to the action against him, former legislator Balnatah blamed the party president for hobnobbing with the ruling Congress in the state.

"I worked sincerely for the party since it was formed in February 2012. Every worker knows about it," Balnatah told IANS.

Earlier, two senior leaders of the party -- Dulo Ram and K.D. Dharmani -- both two-time legislators, rejoined the Bharatiya Janata Party.

The HLP has already decided not to merge with the BJP and announced it would support the Aam Aadmi Party in all four Lok Sabha seats in Himachal Pradesh for the May 7 polls.

HLP sources said there was discontent within the party against the decision of the party president that the HLP would not contest the Lok Sabha elections.

"Most of the party leaders are unhappy over the decision to extend support to the AAP without any offer from it," a senior leader said.

Maheshwar Singh, a sitting legislator from Kullu, along with former assembly speaker Radha Raman Shastri and two former ministers - Shyama Sharma and Mohinder Sofat - had resigned from the BJP ahead of the 2012 assembly elections.

They formed the HLP under Maheshwar Singh's leadership and contested the assembly polls, winning a seat.

Maheshwar Singh is getting isolated in Himachal Pradesh. Those who don't bend before the NaMo Aandhi, would break.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 16 Mar 2014 20:53

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 16 Mar 2014 21:02

TN BJP alliance fluid! crumbling in some areas. Too many parties. A big mistake by BJP. It should have picked a party with similar ideology and provided financial support.

NDTV had a good report on JJ, Sreenivasan Jain asking the questions among TN people. It gives a better idea of the situation on the ground.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 16 Mar 2014 21:08

gandharva wrote:Massive outrage on twitter against denial of ticket to Dr Swamy. Also, there r rumors of Sonia talking to D4 to make sure Swamy doesn't get a ticket.

He should be used like Rakhi Sawant, and sent to China or Saudi Arabia. He is a snake.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 16 Mar 2014 21:17

vivek.rao wrote:Check the part about this Jat leader who saved a lot of Muslims too. The morons in Delhi even call him communal

Bad move IMO. Can't understand why BJP is projecting protectors of Muslims and shafting protectors of Hindus. This was their opportunity to send a strong message that fundamentalist jihadi type violence will not be tolerated. Instead they squandered away this opportunity.Jats of Western UP are very clear about this being a Hindu Muslim election as pointed out by N Rao ji. Muslims of Western UP are not voting for NDA in any case. Why this self goal then? Why not strongly align with sentiments of your constituency? Is BJP trying to ensure Ajit Singh or his son's win?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Mar 2014 21:23

SwamyG wrote:TN BJP alliance fluid! crumbling in some areas. Too many parties. A big mistake by BJP. It should have picked a party with similar ideology and provided financial support.

NDTV had a good report on JJ, Sreenivasan Jain asking the questions among TN people. It gives a better idea of the situation on the ground.

It is all sealed. In 3 days Rajnath would be making big official announcement of seat distribution and launch of TN NDA.

Only problem is in Puducherry, where AI NR Congress has pledged to be part of NDA, but PMK is going to be putting up a candidate there anyway. TN NDA alliance not stretch to PY.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 16 Mar 2014 21:28

Santosh wrote:
vivek.rao wrote:Check the part about this Jat leader who saved a lot of Muslims too. The morons in Delhi even call him communal
Bad move IMO. Can't understand why BJP is projecting protectors of Muslims and shafting protectors of Hindus. This was their opportunity to send a strong message that fundamentalist jihadi type violence will not be tolerated. Instead they squandered away this opportunity.Jats of Western UP are very clear about this being a Hindu Muslim election as pointed out by N Rao ji. Muslims of Western UP are not voting for NDA in any case. Why this self goal then? Why not strongly align with sentiments of your constituency? Is BJP trying to ensure Ajit Singh or his son's win?

Very good and popular Jat leader ! Every one loves him.

He is not just Jat but he is fair and balanced. Not an appeaser and sickular crook like Nandan Nilkeni or Kujli!

He is future star. Agriculture scientist, unmarried, adopts, helps people. What else do you want? U want chahutala? Jats will benefit from projecting leaders like him

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 16 Mar 2014 22:17

Rajesh, if you notice in twitter lots of TN BJP supporters are not happy about the alliances and seat distributions at all. They are demotivated. Another Bihar and UP in the making, that is not allowing BJP to grow.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 16 Mar 2014 23:02

Is Delhi being traded for Karnataka by NaMo? There was lot of dissidence by Vajpayee Congress led by SS against tie-up/merger of BSY and Sriramulu. This was an attempt by Mafia thru SS to give mafia a safe haven in KT to live and fight another day. Now that saffron has emerged strong in KT, mafia interests are being accommodated in Delhi? Not allowing Swamy a ticket from Delhi could be part of this strategy. Notice how saffron is staying away from black money and Vadra deals that directly target Congi.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 16 Mar 2014 23:41

Swami should be accommodated in RS as so many RS MP's like AJ will be vacating their seats..
Win win no... I doubt if D4 has any clout left to ask for accommodation in ticket distribution and since when has INC president started calling BJP ticket distribution cell for favors..

We need subbu swamy in some avatar in Cabinet to hunt Queen and her minions. He is the one with intellect, focus and chutzpah.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Mar 2014 23:53

nageshks wrote:
MuraliRavi-ji,
Care to share your opinion on the candidates? On that note, I noticed that BJP Kaliabor candidate is Mrinal Kumar Saikia. Does anyone know if this Mrinal Kumar Saikia is the same person as the man who wrote the exceptionally detailed book `Assam towards Islamisation' in the mid-late 90s? If so, is it a signal that NaMo is taking illegal immigration very seriously?

Nagesh ji

Sorry did not see ur post. Let me dig a little bit more and get back to u

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Mar 2014 23:57

SwamyG wrote:Rajesh, if you notice in twitter lots of TN BJP supporters are not happy about the alliances and seat distributions at all. They are demotivated. Another Bihar and UP in the making, that is not allowing BJP to grow.

That is sadly true.

But there are different growth models. BJP was at 2%. May in the last 2 years and the death of Ramesh in Salem, there was renewed energy among Karyakartas and it may have risen further. Modi's advent and popularity however has put BJP in double digits.

TN BJP needs to use this opportunity to build mind-share and viable alternative in TN. The thing is that it is BJP now that is providing the glue to the disparate lot - DMDK PMK MDMK IJK KNMK .... Without BJP it would fall apart. So BJP gets even more mind-share.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 17 Mar 2014 00:30

So if Varanasi is as bad as people depict, then was MMJ not able to do anything for Varanasi? I know there are State vs Central issues, municipality ityadi ityadi issues. But an MP should have some clout, no? Especially if he has been elected numerous times there? To me he seems to have let down the people.

sunilUpa · Post by **sunilUpa** » 17 Mar 2014 00:34

SwamyG wrote:So if Varanasi is as bad as people depict, then was MMJ not able to do anything for Varanasi? I know there are State vs Central issues, municipality ityadi ityadi issues. But an MP should have some clout, no? Especially if he has been elected numerous times there? To me he seems to have let down the people.

There is no doubt about that! Really sad though.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 17 Mar 2014 02:17

SwamyG wrote:So if Varanasi is as bad as people depict, then was MMJ not able to do anything for Varanasi? I know there are State vs Central issues, municipality ityadi ityadi issues. But an MP should have some clout, no? Especially if he has been elected numerous times there? To me he seems to have let down the people.

2009 was first time mmj became mp from varanasi. He is a really bad mp

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 17 Mar 2014 02:51

SwamyG wrote:So if Varanasi is as bad as people depict, then was MMJ not able to do anything for Varanasi? I know there are State vs Central issues, municipality ityadi ityadi issues. But an MP should have some clout, no? Especially if he has been elected numerous times there? To me he seems to have let down the people.

He is a RajyaSabha material but insists on fighting Loksabha because he suffers from delusion of mass leader. Also, doesn't want to miss thin chance (in case it arrives)of becoming PM due to handicap of not being LS member. What Dinesh Kartik is to Dhoni, he is/was to Advani.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 17 Mar 2014 03:39

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 17 Mar 2014 03:54

Once again, I hope Dr. SSwamy is put up against PChidambaram in Sivakasi. They have a long history.

Once Dr SS defeats PC, he should be made the Finance Minister in a NaMo cabinet.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 17 Mar 2014 04:32

Kakkaji wrote:Once again, I hope Dr. SSwamy is put up against PChidambaram in Sivakasi. They have a long history.

Once Dr SS defeats PC, he should be made the Finance Minister in a NaMo cabinet.

The way to defeat the greasy little low-class crook Chidambaram is to put him in jail, not to win an election against him. He needs to be hounded and cornered like a rat by the state machinery. Whether or not he wins the LS election does not matter. Dr. Swamy has vowed to "put Chidambaram in jail", not to "defeat him in the election". I urge him to fulfil his promise with the state machinery at his disposal from 2014 onwards.

member_27718 · Post by **member_27718** » 17 Mar 2014 04:45

satya wrote:
nageshks wrote:I am seeing considerable hand wringing about BJP's Haryana list. I am afraid I am no great expert on Haryana politics. Can anyone comment on the BJP choice of candidates listed below?

1) Ambala - Rattan Lal Kataria (This guy was MP in 99-04 period, I think. He is the political successor of Suraj Bhan, who used to win from Ambala).
2) Kurukshetra - Rajkumar Saini
3) Sonepat - Ramesh Kaushik
4) Rohtak - Om Prakash Dhankhad (He is president of Kisan Union, I think).
5) Bhiwani-Mahendragarh - Dharamveer
6) Gurgaon - Rao Inderjit Singh (He is a Congress defector, old time enemy of Hooda, I think).
7) Faridabad - Krishnapal Gujjar (He is a sitting BJP MLA in the region).
Ambala : a reserve seat . Kataria iirc ex HPSC chairman . Corrupt but then who isn't. A fighting chance for BJP . Surajbhan was much much better than him .

Sonepat & Rohtak are two of the most safe seats for Congress even in current times . I would be very surprise if Hooda's son loses in Rohtak . Sonepat has traditionally gone with INC so will be very hard for BJP to win here .

Bhiwani-Mahendragardh : Late Ch. Bansilal ex CM of Haryana's home town is Bhiwani . His name still carries weight now his grand-daughter is current MP from this seat & her mother ( daughter -in-law of Ch. Bansilal ) a minister in Hooda's government . It might be a close fight as Dharamveer is also from this area & had defeated Ch. Bansilal in 87 assembly election iirc.

Gurgaon : BJP has the best chance here if Inderjit can spend some money on meo muslims . He did in past and he being an ahir has a good chance .

Faridabad : Gujjar in place of RamChander Bainda ( a jat but also a mining heavy weight , won from here iirc once but a hopeless MP ) . Gujjar most probably will fight against Avtar Singh Bhadana another gujjar if so it will be a close contest. Faridabad has a large number of punjabi voters & this group might pull in favor of BJP-HJC alliance .

All i can say possibly 3-1 for INC ( ROHTAK , Sonipat , Bhiwani ) - BJP ( Gurgaon ) . Ambala is unknown to me so cannot comment . Rest of them should be close fight .

IMO, Sonipat is always used to be BJP seat. Bhiwani will not going to be easy for Cong because of HJC factor. I guess Sonipat and Gurgaon should be easy for BJP with very good chance in Faridabad & Ambala.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 17 Mar 2014 05:34

Kakkaji wrote:Once again, I hope Dr. SSwamy is put up against PChidambaram in Sivakasi. They have a long history.

Once Dr SS defeats PC, he should be made the Finance Minister in a NaMo cabinet.

Unless the World has changed recently, I do not think there is mass support for Swamy. People openly say on TV they would vote because of jati. The Internet Hindu support must not be construed into him having support at booths. He knows that, and that is why he has not made any tamasha yet. He has other plans in his mind. Only Swamy and time will tell how it is going to play out. He will get his pound of flesh. Elections are silly for him.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 17 Mar 2014 06:07

gauravsharma wrote: IMO, Sonipat is always used to be BJP seat. Bhiwani will not going to be easy for Cong because of HJC factor. I guess Sonipat and Gurgaon should be easy for BJP with very good chance in Faridabad & Ambala.

Okay - fun begins over ticket distribution in Haryana.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2014/20140317/main6.htm

The Haryana BJP chief had to face the wrath of supporters of former party MLA Naresh Malik who was denied ticket from Rohtak. Malik’s supporters ransacked the party office, raised slogans against the central leadership and showed black flags to Sharma.

The Rohtak ticket has been allotted to president of BJP Kissan Morcha Om Parkash Dhankar, who is seen as an outsider.

Why is anyone even concerned over Rohtak ticket? Do they fancy their chances against Hooda's son?

n Sonepat, workers were unhappy over party choosing Ramesh Kaushik and ignoring front-runner Pradeep Sangwan. Sangwan, a state secretary, has threatened to contest as an Independent and his supporters have vowed to defeat Kaushik. Kaushik was first elected as Haryana Vikas Party’s MLA from Gannaur constituency in 1996 and served as minister in Bansi Lal cabinet. He later joined hands with Om Prakash Chautala to topple the Bansi Lal government in 1999.

Ah yes - the indefatigable Ramesh Kaushik. It is hard to know which party the lad is in, given his propensity for changing hats at the drop of a hat

Resentment was reported from Bhiwani, too, where Sohna legislator and former chief parliamentary secretary (CPS) Dharamvir Singh, who quit Congress two days ago, has been made the BJP nominee for the Bhiwani-Mahendragarh parliamentary constituency. Haryana Congress Minister Kiran Chaudhary, whose daughter Shruti is the sitting MP, accused Dharamvir of procuring the BJP ticket by clandestine means. BJP’s ticket aspirant and former MP Sudha Yadav has gone on record to lodge her protest with the party high command saying the party had ignored the committed workers and loyal leaders by giving the ticket to a person who joined the party just a day ago.

Another Kangressi given tikkit. Surprising a bit, no? And finally

Even BJP’s Gurgaon nominee, Rao Inderjit Singh, joined the party a couple of weeks ago after deserting the Congress. A prominent leader of the Ahirwal belt, he is said to be facing opposition from BJP workers. In Kurukshetra, BJP nominee Raj Kumar Saini came under strong attack from various quarters.

So - out of the 6 tickets given out thus far, 3 (Sonepat, Bhiwani-Mahendragarh, and Gurgaon) have gone to Congressmen (ex-Congressmen now, I suppose), and one has gone in favour of an independent (Rajkumar Saini in Kurukshetra). Congressmen vs Congressmen, with BJP workers campaigning for one set of Kangressmen (hard to make out which is which, I guess).

No wonder there was so much breast-beating in Twitter today. Jats seemed to be particularly incensed that their community had not been given enough representation (and were muttering darkly about dire reprisals against the BJP). Does anyone know if Dharamveer or Om Prakash Dhankar are Jats (I know the other four are not)?

Also, looking at the list, does it seem that the BJP is trying to get a non-Jat (Brahmin-OBC, to be precise) consolidation given the competition for Jat votes? If Jat votes are divided between Hooda and Chauthala, possibly even AAP, then it mkes sense for BJP to unite OBCs and Brahmins.

jimmyray · Post by **jimmyray** » 17 Mar 2014 07:07

No wonder there was so much breast-beating in Twitter today. Jats seemed to be particularly incensed that their community had not been given enough representation (and were muttering darkly about dire reprisals against the BJP). Does anyone know if Dharamveer or Om Prakash Dhankar are Jats (I know the other four are not)?

Also, looking at the list, does it seem that the BJP is trying to get a non-Jat (Brahmin-OBC, to be precise) consolidation given the competition for Jat votes? If Jat votes are divided between Hooda and Chauthala, possibly even AAP, then it mkes sense for BJP to unite OBCs and Brahmins.

Om Prakash Dhankar is definitely a Jat , Dharamveer Singh most likely

Javee · Post by **Javee** » 17 Mar 2014 07:09

Swamy will not contest against PC. There is a strong core of support for Swamy but it is not enough to win a LS seat. Not sure if PC himself is contesting this time, it may be his son Karthi, which makes Swamy'a job even more easier. Put both the thugs in jail.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 17 Mar 2014 07:25

jimmyray wrote: Om Prakash Dhankar is definitely a Jat , Dharamveer Singh most likely

You are right about both, Jimmyray-ji. Both of them are Jats.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 17 Mar 2014 07:44

gandharva wrote:

My guess: One of NaMos two seats will go to him, post election. Probably the one in Guj.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 17 Mar 2014 08:29

Kya website hai !

http://t.co/MzwjtGFuST

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Mar 2014 14:44

gandharva wrote:Kya website hai !

http://t.co/MzwjtGFuST

Basically says Gul Panag has only her looks to offer and nothing more! Only change for Aam Aadmi would be more visibility of Gul Panag!

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 17 Mar 2014 15:14

Reservation required in pvt jobs: Nandan Nilekani

Now he's a true blue congressiya ... aaak thoo only

This is what Mohandas Pai had to say

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Mar 2014 15:29

But he has already obtained anticipatory bail by donning the skullcap.
future ashrafi "leader" of blr im vote bank perhaps.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Mar 2014 15:40

Nilankani and NMurthy created disgust on Infy. Not singing national anthem because your gora guests will feel embarrassed and then lobbying to become President of India, now his chamcha want to become another MMS and serve gora mafia queen. Just wait and see. Infy employees themselves will not vote for him in Namma Bangaluru.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 17 Mar 2014 16:06

OK.. I hereby declare MH as officially "relapsed" case. they tried get out of congi addiction but the cancer has relapsed.

Narvekar left SS and joined NCP. many SS people going to support NCP in upcoming general elections, around Mumbai area. Most probably, by june-july - there will be many defections from Shivsena (and perhaps MNS also) to NCP. Pawar will then kick congi butt and form government on his own (or perhaps supported by two senas) who may go with them in spite of being screwed.

Before he kicks bucket, Sharad Pawar will have shown and amazed the world with his magic, one last time and go behind the curtains with roaring applause and power firmly in hands of his kin.

Now if Gopinath Munde is seduced by INC, this will upset this balance. There is serious chance that he might switch over (I hope he does not) after general elections. I would prefer NCP eating up INC and two senas and eventually BJP and NCP being the only two poles left in MH-polity. I doubt pawar saheb will grant me this wish.

In terms of GE seats - do not expect more than 25 NDA seats from MH this time. if more, it will be just by freak accident OR because of Modiwave. In terms of assembly elections, as I said way earlier, before being slightly confused by apparent victories and glaze of namo, NCP will sweep through MH polls. I wish BJP on its own wins at least 15 seats to contribute to the tally fo 190-200 seats from main 6-7 states. Bulk of these seats will come from Vidarbha region and few from Mundé's Marathwada and rest 3-4 from MMR-Pune-Nasik region out of 10-12.

The supreme egos of Thakré brothers will be their undoing.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 17 Mar 2014 16:11

Communal tag in school books: EC probing BJP complaint

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/c ... 796062.ece

satya · Post by **satya** » 17 Mar 2014 16:21

A bit on Haryana :

Dharamvir knows how to fight dirty & he connects easily with voters & had defeated Ch. Bansilal in past an achievement given the goodwill later Ch. Bansilal enjoyed ( for right reasons ofcourse ) . HJC presence means Bishnoi votes so if they go for BJP its a plus. But still it will be a tough fight but Dharamvir is the best bet for BJP to snatch Bhiwani seat. As for Sudha Yadav : she is a non-starter . Her cv being wife of a Kargil Martyr is not much to write about . Failed twice in Gurgaon , its time to keep her on sidelines maybe in assmebly but definitely not for Parliament.

Sonipat had never been BJP seat . BJP did have a good leader Sangwan iirc but it seems he had been sidelined or changed sides . If INC loses Rohtak & Sonipat then its good bye assembly election in October .

BJP for reasons best known to itself never courted nor promoted good Jat leaders in state leadership with exception of Sangwan from Sonipat & now Dharamvir but Dharamvir is no leader material . It works if your coalition partner is INLD or in past HVP ( both jat leaders party).

Kurushetra is another seat that might go against INC as INLD has a good presence there .

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 17 Mar 2014 17:56

Me likey Rahul Narvekar, who appeared on TV debates as Shiva Sena spokesperson. Now he has jumped to NCP. Me sad.

Baba Ramdev making noises too. The tickets distribution was it too late? Only time will tell.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Mar 2014 17:59

Atri wrote:OK.. I hereby declare MH as officially "relapsed" case. they tried get out of congi addiction but the cancer has relapsed.

Narvekar left SS and joined NCP. many SS people going to support NCP in upcoming general elections, around Mumbai area. Most probably, by june-july - there will be many defections from Shivsena (and perhaps MNS also) to NCP. Pawar will then kick congi butt and form government on his own (or perhaps supported by two senas) who may go with them in spite of being screwed.

Before he kicks bucket, Sharad Pawar will have shown and amazed the world with his magic, one last time and go behind the curtains with roaring applause and power firmly in hands of his kin.

Now if Gopinath Munde is seduced by INC, this will upset this balance. There is serious chance that he might switch over (I hope he does not) after general elections. I would prefer NCP eating up INC and two senas and eventually BJP and NCP being the only two poles left in MH-polity. I doubt pawar saheb will grant me this wish.

In terms of GE seats - do not expect more than 25 NDA seats from MH this time. if more, it will be just by freak accident OR because of Modiwave. In terms of assembly elections, as I said way earlier, before being slightly confused by apparent victories and glaze of namo, NCP will sweep through MH polls. I wish BJP on its own wins at least 15 seats to contribute to the tally fo 190-200 seats from main 6-7 states. Bulk of these seats will come from Vidarbha region and few from Mundé's Marathwada and rest 3-4 from MMR-Pune-Nasik region out of 10-12.

The supreme egos of Thakré brothers will be their undoing.

MH will be divided with Nagpur becoming the capital city of Vidharbha state. It is just a matter of time.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 17 Mar 2014 18:04

From my POV, the bottom line is that BJP is getting 200 seats (+/- 10) and Congress is getting 90 (+/-10) according to all major and minor surveys that use different samples and prediction formulae(CSDS, C-Voter, Neilsen, Hansa Research, Praveen Patil etc.). Given this broad consensus among disparate sources it is very likely that Modi will be our next PM, save for a catastrophic event.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 17 Mar 2014 18:28

satya wrote:A bit on Haryana :

Dharamvir knows how to fight dirty & he connects easily with voters & had defeated Ch. Bansilal in past an achievement given the goodwill later Ch. Bansilal enjoyed ( for right reasons ofcourse ) . HJC presence means Bishnoi votes so if they go for BJP its a plus. But still it will be a tough fight but Dharamvir is the best bet for BJP to snatch Bhiwani seat. As for Sudha Yadav : she is a non-starter . Her cv being wife of a Kargil Martyr is not much to write about . Failed twice in Gurgaon , its time to keep her on sidelines maybe in assmebly but definitely not for Parliament.

Satya-ji,
Do you think the presence of Rao Inderjit Singh, Narendra Modi and Baba Ramdev can induce the Yadavs to vote en masse for the BJP? Do you think the presence of Yogendra Yadav in neighbouring Gurgaon will have any effect?

Sonipat had never been BJP seat . BJP did have a good leader Sangwan iirc but it seems he had been sidelined or changed sides . If INC loses Rohtak & Sonipat then its good bye assembly election in October .

BJP is fielding Ramesh Kaushik (wasn't this the character who helped Chauthala bring down Bansi Lal's government back in 99?) who has been in several parties. Pradeep Sangwan, Kishan Singh Sangwan's son, is threatening to rise in revolt. If the revolt is staunched, do you think the BJP has a chance in Sonepat with a Brahmin?

BJP for reasons best known to itself never courted nor promoted good Jat leaders in state leadership with exception of Sangwan from Sonipat & now Dharamvir but Dharamvir is no leader material . It works if your coalition partner is INLD or in past HVP ( both jat leaders party).

BJP has never promoted any leaders, of any community, in Haryana. How many leaders do you know from Haryana (No, Sushma Swaraj is not a leader. She is a wheeler and dealer, a Sonia poodle. If she is a leader, I am Napoleon Bonaparte).

Kurushetra is another seat that might go against INC as INLD has a good presence there .

The INLD is fielding Balbeer Saini from Kurukshetra. Do you think the person has a chance? Why did the INLD dump the successful Kailasho Devi? She was winning Kurukshetra quite a few times for INLD.

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 17 Mar 2014 19:48

You could have an alliance of the BJP, the SS, the MNS, the Shekap and Raju Shetty and yet the Congress and Pawar might just sneak through.

The status quo with the Sena on the division of seats in the alliance just can't go on. Something's gotta give.