Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 16 Apr 2014 10:43

@PingVod
Nawabganj - an upper caste ghetto in Kanpur - has decided to dump MMJ and vote for SPJ. If this is true elsewhere, MMJ will lose by a margin

The numbers in UP now seem to between 35-40 according to him.

Some saying total UP+Bihar will be 55ish (< 50%).

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 16 Apr 2014 10:46

5Forty3 is projecting 55 for NDA, 26 for UPA and 29 for others until 12th Apr 2014.
No major worries upto this point.
Apr 17 is "battle of Stalingrad".

Arunkumar · Post by **Arunkumar** » 16 Apr 2014 10:48

LKA and sushma are addicted to become opposition leaders. Court jesters in Lutyens Durbar.

vic · Post by **vic** » 16 Apr 2014 10:55

LKA wanted to be PM and was playing Sushma and Jaitely against each other, both hoping to inherit PMship from him. Modi upset the AppleCart. Now this Gang is doing everything possible against BJP victory.

My solution:- If Congress gets around 90 seats, then Modi should break congress and stabilize his Govt.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Apr 2014 10:57

>> Apr 17 is "battle of Stalingrad"

April 17 is barely 12 hrs away. the sky is black like thunder from the drifting smoke of heavy arty.

either the hated waffen SS shturm units will break through the thin red line of the tractor factory and roll up all rodina makeshift docks and units along the volga . stalingrad will fly under the swastika.

or

general Eremenko and Rokosowsky will unleash their famous pincer attack to encircle the entire 6th Army in a steel ring that will compress with time.

the battle has entered a decisive phase and both Gen Keitel/Jodl in the lutyens delhi wolf bunker and Stavka in gandhinagar are monitoring it 24x7.

We, soldiers of the Soviet Union, came to Berlin at our people's behest, not for destruction, not to murder German men and women. We had trodden our hard road in order to liberate our own native soil, and the nations of our brothers, from NAZI invaders. And now, again we are here in order to destroy for all time the nest of aggression, and by doing so to end NAZISM in Germany. In was not our fault that we were compelled to take Germany's capitol by storm.

In war people must die. But not so many need have died if Hitler and his underlings had realized when we were on the Oder that NAZISM had gone under, that further resistance was senseless...

...Even now, twenty years later, when I see in my mind's eye, again and again, those scenes of battle, that irresistable flood of Soviet soldiers rushing into Berlin, I keep asking myself the same question: What were the NAZI leaders hoping to achieve? For the fate of Berlin was sealed as from 25 April 1945."

Marshal Vasili I. Chuikov
"The Fall of Berlin"
Macgibbon & Lee Ltd., April 1968

vic · Post by **vic** » 16 Apr 2014 11:00

I wonder how can poor, dalit, OBC vote against person like Modi who is one of their own compared to Dynasty? Voting for Dynasty would be like Russian Jews voting for Hitler! I hope, wish, predict, pray, await for Modi Tsunami which will give BJP alone 275 seats.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 16 Apr 2014 11:05

I have a vague feeling that likes of Susu Aunty, MMJ, AK and Mithaiwala were already factored in as written off by NaMo and team. No show by cadre in MP yesterday and news reports about MMJ's dicey case in Kanpur would suggest so.
LohPurush seems to have last minute assessment of ground realities given "any position the party gives me". That's a big climb down for someone that led the charge in 80s and 90s.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Apr 2014 11:06

chaanakya wrote:
muraliravi wrote:
Thats what I think will happen on May 16. NDA will need 34 seats and I have shown where they can get 35 seats from. Those 35 (yes including NCP) will give Namo least trouble in running govt. Stay away from Jaya as far as you can. Dont align with BJD, instead grow BJP in orissa. People may not like DMK, but they are a reliable party to run a govt.

One caveat, I have assumed 36 seats for BJP in UP and 18 in Bihar. If that tally goes up to 75, then all bets are off. But even that should not change congress numbers much because Cong is anyway marginal player in UP and Bihar.

MRji. I am sure your astute analysis would give a sense of reality to euphoric brfites. You prediction seems to be modeled on the basis of previous voting pattern and caste equations. It Assumes that people would vote according to their caste and groups en block. I am not sure if you have taken swing factor into account.......

+1 to Chaanakya. In this election BJP would get 190 seats for just showing up for elections even without NaMo. 175 was the number being talked about last year before NaMo was projected as PM candidate.

So 190 seats means, that NaMo has made NO DIFFERENCE whatsoever to BJP campaigning. I for one, find it difficult to accept that. I do see a advantage due to NaMo, how much really in terms of vote, I dont know (and neither does ANY ONE else) -- but the push is clearly there.

The issue will be of how many of these convert to votes, i.e. the number of people who will finally vote on the polling day. Again 190 means that all the extra pro-NaMo people have not come out to vote (which means the wave has died with time)

I think its far too pessimistic. While the game is not won till its won. 190 number is dhoti shivering number.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 11:07

Modi glue binds splintered Maharashtra

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... harashtra/

Radical Maratha leader Vinayak Mete has quit the NCP to join the BJP-led alliance.

* The Republican Party of India, which has never subscribed to Hindutva, is showcasing Narendra Modi as a mascot to consolidate Dalit votes in favour of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in Maharashtra.

* The Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana, a powerful farmers’ organisation, is citing the “Gujarat model” to highlight the agrarian crisis in Maharashtra.

* Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena opposes the Shiv Sena but supports the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Modi.

* Radical Maratha leader Vinayak Mete has quit the NCP to join the BJP-led alliance.

* With Bal Thackeray not around, the Shiv Sena’s own disgruntled MPs such as Anandrao Adsul in Amravati have found refuge in posters which have Modi on their side.

Whether it is putting together poll campaigns or election strategies, the Modi factor has become integral to every party in Maharashtra, a state that contributes 48 seats to Parliament, the most after Uttar Pradesh.

BJP poll managers are working overtime to meet the demands of party candidates who want Modi to address a rally in their constituency. It is not just curiosity that is attracting phenomenal crowds to his rallies, they say. The “un-preached”, they claim, are getting converted.

Hope and pray that this leads to seats for NDA.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 16 Apr 2014 11:13

Vamsee wrote:5Forty3 is projecting 55 for NDA, 26 for UPA and 29 for others until 12th Apr 2014.
No major worries upto this point.
Apr 17 is "battle of Stalingrad".

Read it as NDA=55 and UPA3 (UPA with 3rd front outside support or vice versa)=55

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 16 Apr 2014 11:17

Sanku wrote:The issue will be of how many of these convert to votes, i.e. the number of people who will finally vote on the polling day. Again 190 means that all the extra pro-NaMo people have not come out to vote (which means the wave has died with time)

I think its far too pessimistic. While the game is not won till its won. 190 number is dhoti shivering number.

Yes 190 is pessimistic. But one thing one can be sure of - whatever number BJP ends up at will be at least 40 more than a non-NaMo led BJP campaign.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 16 Apr 2014 11:23

The elections are reaching a critical phase where it's more worthwhile for those who have ways to directly contribute to help get out the vote, to coordinate with each other to do so, and for others to not add noise to this thread with assorted dhoti shivers and CTs.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Apr 2014 11:24

Loh Purush is like Dhritarashtra ... burning with certain grievances...a bit ambitious...but fearful of losing everything too. when all his sons were dead , he put out one last burst of rage in hugging and crushing the statue of Bhima which Krishna has wisely substituted. after that he cooled down, adjusted to new realities and got with the program. he was allowed to retain his status but not part of the main power structure again...I believe Vidura was made the PM..but he too declined due to age and tired of warfare and with his elder brother retired to the forest to lead a hermits life until passing away.

brilliance of MB book is 1000s of years after it was written, one can still go back to it to learn lessons on people, conduct of statecraft, love, honour, lust, anger , greed and consequences of every decision we make.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 11:26

नंदीता ठाकुर ‏@nanditathhakur 3h

Who gave how much land to Adani pic.twitter.com/0IjsjgCisv

Seems to be newspaper cutting

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 11:28

CNN-IBN News ‏@ibnlive 3h

RT @IBNLivePolitics: Beheaded soldier's family hits out at UPA, SP; says will vote for BJP http://ibnlive.in.com/news/beheaded-sol ... 37-64.html … #Mathura #Elections2014

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 16 Apr 2014 11:31

Vinayak Mete is Maharashtra's Sabir Ali.. virulently anti hindu and anti brahminical.. Its stupidity to let such people in. he brings in nothing with him. only good news is his induction in BJP will catalyze his downfall among his fans and peers.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 11:34

Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 3h

Congi sources tell me that Sibal will admit to EC that his wife has shares in the meat outsourcing company Arshiya but will deny malafide.

Amit Shah ‏@AmitShahOffice 12h

I have stated in @Openthemag that we should not rely on positive opinion polls or on a wave. Keep working till the last vote is cast for BJP

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 16 Apr 2014 11:38

pankajs wrote:
नंदीता ठाकुर ‏@nanditathhakur 3h
Who gave how much land to Adani pic.twitter.com/0IjsjgCisv
Seems to be newspaper cutting

That newspaper story is absurd. The Adani SEZ is a huge container port, previously known as the Mundra port. The SEZ turned barren land in the Kutch into a huge generator of economic activity, wealth and taxation.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 11:44

Sure .. I think some BJP supporters on SM are playing up the figures to nail pappu's lie abt Rs 1/sq ft land charge against Modi. If that is the right approach to show up pappu is a debatable question.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 11:48

In coastal Karnataka, RSS hits every road

indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/in-coastal-karnataka-rss-hits-every-road/

The one region in Karnataka where the Narendra Modi factor is clearly in play for the Lok Sabha elections is in the coastal districts — encompassing the Dakshina Kannada and Udupi-Chikmagalur constituencies — where Hindutva and nationalistic streaks run strong.

It is the only region in the state where the BJP and Sangh Parivar, in the course of their campaign, frequently refer to the beheading of Indian soldiers by Pakistan, Chinese intrusions into Arunachal and the terrorist activities of Yasin Bhatkal and the Indian Mujahideen.

The choice of Modi as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate has reinvigorated the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh and other Sangh Parivar constituents in the region to such an extent that internal differences, which contributed to the BJP’s loss of ground in the region in the 2013 assembly polls, have been set aside.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 11:51

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 16 Apr 2014 11:54

This sea of saffron is Darjeeling, WB:

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 11:55

Prasanna Viswanathan ‏@prasannavishy 4h

As things stands now, data suggests Ananth enjoys a slender lead. Maximisation of Middleclass turnout will make his victory certain

vic · Post by **vic** » 16 Apr 2014 11:59

Fact is Sangh Parivaar has dumped BJP and it is Modi all the way.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 16 Apr 2014 12:13

Folks in Bangalore:

Try and round up people and get them to to vote.
Make Phone calls, to your friends & co-workers; give people half day off if you can; give a junket reward (a company sticker) for those who voted. Whatever you can to make people vote...

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 16 Apr 2014 12:18

congress stooping to new low

http://www.niticentral.com/2014/04/16/p ... 12200.html

True face of corrupt Congress! Professors arrested for distributing money on behalf of party

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Apr 2014 12:19

afaik, all ITvity and Manufacturing cos are holiday tomorrow in blr to accomodate voting except very minimal business critical support functions, and these too will have shifts to let people get half the day to vote.

shops will also likely remain mostly closed in the day...

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 12:28

https://twitter.com/KanchanDNA/status/4 ... 5916316672

Kanchan Srivastava ‏@KanchanDNA 12h

#PriyankaGandhi wd have contested Lok Sabha election long back, had EC not made it mandatory to give spouse's assets in the affidavit

rkirankr · Post by **rkirankr** » 16 Apr 2014 12:36

Vamsee wrote: 5forty3.in which is a subscription based site now. Upto this point things are looking good for BJP. 17th is a big day. Hopefully middle class will not take vacation and vote in big numbers.

Middle class will be middle class. Due to the long week end, because Friday is a good friday, today morning I saw many families going out in auto to railway stations or in their cars. Sheepish grins and "yaar bandre een madthare? " (who ever it is, what are they going to do?).
Sorry to say, most were hindus . I am losing hope , especially for Bangalore

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 16 Apr 2014 12:36

Singha wrote:afaik, all ITvity and Manufacturing cos are holiday tomorrow in blr to accomodate voting except very minimal business critical support functions, and these too will have shifts to let people get half the day to vote.

shops will also likely remain mostly closed in the day...

Gr8. Then make sure you send out an email to your address book, spam your contacts on FB, go door to door in your buildings etc. to get people to the booth.. Make phone calls if you can ....

Best, throw an after voting party

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 16 Apr 2014 13:07

An appeal in these lines from senior BJP leaders may help
"There are a few honest candidates from other parties whom you would like to Vote, but remember a vote to any one other than BJP candidate will bring Sonia gandhi and Rahul Gandhi back"

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Apr 2014 13:16

harbans wrote:Vamsee ji, i gave it a month back:

I wasn't aware you were such a pessimistic person!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 13:36

https://twitter.com/prasannavishy/statu ... 9405170688

Prasanna Viswanathan ‏@prasannavishy 2h

Dr @5Forty3 suggesting a huge saffron surge in Vidarbha So where will NCP-Con compensate for likely losses in Mumbai http://5forty3.in/2014/04/projections-t ... ril-polls/ …

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Apr 2014 13:39

Prem Kumar wrote:One more call for action

As you know, the South Bangalore race between BJP's Ananth Kumar and Nilekani is very tight. Nilekani is spending his millions like water and walking around with a posse of goondas & landsharks.

There is a request from BJP IT Cell to trend the #Ananth4NaMo hashtag. This can also be used alongwith the #Nilekani420 tag.

Lets create one more success after the previous one a few days ago! The link below has suggestions for what to tweet, accomplishments of Ananth Kumar etc

The tweeting has started now .............

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_dg ... edit?pli=1

My tweets

Rama: Nov29,12240BCE ‏@DharmicFundoo 14m
#Ananth4NaMo failed to tell truth about #Nilekani420, that NN sold biometric & personal data of all Indians thru #Aadhaar to USA via MongoDB

Rama: Nov29,12240BCE ‏@DharmicFundoo 13m
#Ananth4NaMo failed to tell truth about #Nilekani420, that NN made it possible 4 millions of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants to get #Aadhaar!

Rama: Nov29,12240BCE ‏@DharmicFundoo 13m
#Ananth4NaMo failed to tell truth about #Nilekani420, that NN sold biometric & personal data of Muslims 2 help USA in #WarOnTerror! #Aadhaar

Rama: Nov29,12240BCE ‏@DharmicFundoo 6m
#Ananth4NaMo failed to tell truth about #Nilekani420, that NN ws instrumental in arguing against #OperationParakram2002 as it wd hit exports

Rama: Nov29,12240BCE ‏@DharmicFundoo 4m
#Ananth4NaMo failed to tell truth about #Nilekani420, that NN is basically Washington's Candidate in Indian Elections & wd mk us a US-puppet

Do Retweet!

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 16 Apr 2014 13:51

^^

Points #2 and #3 contradicts intent.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Apr 2014 13:59

SRoy wrote:^^

Points #2 and #3 contradicts intent.

#2 and #3 just shows that NN doesn't have any ideology. He would do 2 to get votes for Congress and he would do #3 to get Washington's support!

For sold out people, ideology is useless!

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 16 Apr 2014 14:06

Splurging public funds sans any accountability has become an effing habit, the new norm, under UPA, seems like.

Recall the inflamed H&D issues amartya sen fumed with when questioned about the massive funds-bleed in the Nalanda university project. The less sadi about the entire NAC fiasco and the jean dreze types, the better...

And now Nilekani gasses around proudly having sunk 1000s of crores of public money on a half-baked aadhaar project. No accountability, no fear even of any accountability, law unto themselves seems like. All fancy themselves to be mini-10 jonpaths in that regard, seems like.

But not for long. Or so I hope. If all goes well. Somehow getting a bad feeling with each passing day about the results... Or maybe its just the still-sinking in feeling of just how high the stakes are that're giving me the jeebees...

archan · Post by **archan** » 16 Apr 2014 14:49

^ no, the feeling is because the establishment is going to try hardest with whatever they have to prevent Modi. They'd rather take Sushma and Advani if they have to.

niran · Post by **niran** » 16 Apr 2014 15:01

I bring happy tidings
Amethi since two hours ago has achieved 50/50 zone
from 80/20 in favor of Raga to 50/50 do not be surprised
if bjp Amethi achieve the unthinkable, no, at the moment no can
tell the how or future how.

negi · Post by **negi** » 16 Apr 2014 15:19

^ sir sasura Rashtrakavi Vishwas ke sath vishwaas-ghaat ho gaya ka ?