Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Apr 2014 23:05

nageshks wrote:For what it is worth, I will say I agree more or less with MuraliRavi-ji. My own estimates are very close to his. I estimate the BJP ~195, and the Congress ~100. Anything they get beyond this is bonus for both of them.

That does not compute -- who is picking the rest 250 seats ? 30 (maya+sp)+30(didi)+30(amma)+30(naveen)+30 (others) is what will be needed -- too much of a stretch ?

Some thing will give.

I any case 195 is bad news. That means no BJP govt and Atri-ji's middle option comes through.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Apr 2014 23:07

muraliravi wrote:Sanku Sir,

For what we have now, I will even take a wobbly govt by Modi. Lets see what happens.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 16 Apr 2014 23:13

Sanku wrote:
muraliravi wrote: Thats 126 for you Sanku Sir
190 wont cut it for BJP. Trying to blame SS/LKA/D4 and other such mythical creature and EVM (not you but in general) are only attempts to rationalize.

190 is a loss. Not a victory. It can not be made to look any other way by claims that some one else as face would have it lower. The issue here is not NaMo or even BJP, but getting India a good govt, and that needs a higher number, that is all that there is to it.

And with all due respects, I will take the public opinion poll numbers in 2013 mid as baseline.

I don't want to get into LKA vs NaMo comparison as there is no competition. One would do well to remember that 182 in 1998 was all due to LKA and not because of ABV. Being softer face of BJP ABV was preferred option to stich a coalition. With 182 Govt did not survive long. LKA had chance in 1998 and 1999 and then in 2009. This year is for NaMo. If NaMo gets 190 rest assured someone else would be PM and that could be AJ. That could be one reason NaMo is asking for 300+. He himself has set bar high, not me, as he realises the danger of getting less than 200.

I am positive that he would get more than 300.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 16 Apr 2014 23:13

bhargava wrote:TDP-BJP alliance breaks..per CNN-IBN

Links please.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 16 Apr 2014 23:14

haath wala phuckers were upto usual tricks in certain areas near Pune station few hours ago. just back from action onlee.

some mild stone pelting and police had to interfere and seize the booze. people took money, though. it will be trick to drag them to booths tomorrow and make them press lotus. heck, even MNS cadres helped us in thrashing the shite out of congoons.

Shirole set for win in pune. I wish for more than 65% voting.. The software enggs and deracinated IT-Vity type crowd from newer areas and Koregaon park have big chunk of AAP type supporters. Most of them will be either using NOTA or going away on holidays.. The brahmin mahasangh has put all their votes behind Maratha Shirole. I doubt how much that would have counted, but it seams there will be a clean sweep now from the old city.

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 16 Apr 2014 23:18

Mort Walker wrote:
bhargava wrote:TDP-BJP alliance breaks..per CNN-IBN
Links please.

TDP pulls out of alliance with BJP in Seemandhra: Sources

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 16 Apr 2014 23:22

ramana wrote:chaanakya are you mocking?

Absolutely no.

I have respect for his analysis so much so that I subscribed to 543 on his request. It is what I think of him. I was merely pointing out the contradiction in his assertion when he is OUR psephologist, a star one.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 16 Apr 2014 23:25

chaanakya wrote:
muraliravi wrote: Remember, all the gung ho 200+ numbers depend on one gold mine called UP which is known to deceive psephologists always. .
Well you are our Star Resident psephologist here. No?

muraliravi wrote: Sir if that was a remark out of sarcasm, I am not sure what to say, but if it was compliment, I dont deserve that, I am just an avid data collector who believes numbers more than anything else.

MRji
Its compliment not sarcasm and to tell you that you could have been deceived as well, going by your logic.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 16 Apr 2014 23:31

5forty3 still down.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 16 Apr 2014 23:32

Folks,
Ignore the rumors about TDP, BJP break up. CBN is not a fool.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 16 Apr 2014 23:43

Mort Walker wrote:5forty3 still down.

Yes.

They had a good review of Vidharbha and Haryana today

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 16 Apr 2014 23:45

I did a quick check of Odisha for BJP last time. Out of the 21 seats, BJP had lost by 1 lakh margin or less in only 2 seats-Sundargarh, and Balasore. Balasore was the charisma of Mahameghabahan Aira Kharabela Swain, who has since quit BJP. Not sure how much of the old influence BJP retains in the seat. Even if the BJP won 1 lakh votes more in every seat (roughly 10% more votes), even then, the BJP would win only 2 seats, of which BJP has lost its principal leader in one. Please compute for yourselves just how many seats BJP can win in Odisha this time. The BJP scored more than 20% of the vote in Sundargarh, Balasore, Dhenkanal, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, and Puri. How many of the 20%+ seats can the BJP convert to a victory, particularly when winning margins are around 35-40% in Odisha? To win 5+ seats, BJP will need a massive 15-20% swing (in a state where their organisation is weak, their local leaders decrepit, and where the BJD has just beaten the daylights out of them in recent local polls).

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 23:46

chaanakya wrote: MRji
Its compliment not sarcasm and to tell you that you could have been deceived as well, going by your logic.

Sir, the whole problem with UP is the 4 way contest. It is a nightmare predicting seats in a 4 way contest. But, predicting vote shares should not be that tough for any decent survey agency. But again even with that, you need to have a representative sample in all regions, it is not enough if you have representative sample for the whole state.

When you do sampling, beyond a population level, the sample size required tapers out. So literally the sample size required for lets say Kerala with 30 million pop is quite close to the sample size needed for UP. But then if a survey company uses that logic and surveys the same number of people in UP and Kerala, it may very well get kerala right and go horribly wrong in UP. UP has 6 distinct regions, so they need to treat UP as 6 Kerala's and have a sample size 6 times larger.

That is the only way they will even get vote shares right. Now to get seat tally right, their sample needs to be even better, because of the variations within each of those 6 regions. So unless someone has conceived an ultra smart error cancelling and bias removal method to predict UP which can compensate for a lower but tactically better placed sample, you ideally need 15000 data points to predict UP alone. 5forty3 had 1500-2000 data points for 10 seats in UP which is very very good in my opinion. We should be delighted by his results and his track record in the 4 assembly polls exit polls should make us confident, It is just that "once bitten twice shy" concept that is not letting me go beyond 200 for BJP.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Apr 2014 00:12

muraliravi, the 2009 actual votes provides an awesome resource. So cant one go thru and determine what has changed seat by seat and get verification by surveys?

So effort is more but sample size is manageble?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 17 Apr 2014 00:18

ramana wrote:muraliravi, the 2009 actual votes provides an awesome resource. So cant one go thru and determine what has changed seat by seat and get verification by surveys?

So effort is more but sample size is manageble?

Sir, its very very tuf to fathom what goes on at a seat level and who is moving towards which party. I mean it can be done, but only by 100's of Niran's who can give us that level of info.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Apr 2014 01:04

https://twitter.com/Sudeshvermaji/statu ... 4157212672

Sudesh Verma ‏@Sudeshvermaji 9h

This is what illegal Bangladeshi migrant are doing. And no opposition to such subversion of the mandate. Secularist? http://www.deccanherald.com/election/co ... s-too.html …

As many as 25,000 illegal Bangladeshi migrants, who are staying in slums in the eastern part of the City, will also exercise their ‘franchise’ in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, claimed Yediyur Corporator N R Ramesh.

A sting operation conducted by some private channels has shown that about 25,000 illegal labourers have settled in KR Puram, Ibbalur, Kundahalli Gate, Devara Beesanahalli and Begur.

...
Shockingly, most of these illegal migrants have got voter identity card and Aadhaar card, he said and also released pictures of migrants showing their voter identity cards. “They got these cards by paying a meagre Rs 200 to Rs 300. Now they will also decide the course of our democracy,” Ramesh said.

He said these people were brought to India and settled in Bangalore in great number as part of the vote bank politics.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Apr 2014 01:15

Published on Apr 17, 2014
BJP threat to Mamata dreams: Indian Express

In Alipurduar and Cooch Behar, the BJP traditionally has a high vote share which could go up significantly.

Kolkata: The first phase of elections begins in West Bengal Thursday with four constituencies – Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Alipurduar and Coochbehar – going to polls. While Darjeeling was won by BJP’s Jaswant Singh last time, the other three seats were won by Left Front constituents – CPM in Jalpaiguri, RSP in Alipurduar and Forward Bloc in Cooch Behar.

Mamata Banerjee’s dream of emerging as the third largest national party by winning most of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal depends much on Trinamool Congress wresting some of these seats.

Of these four seats, the most prestigious is undoubtedly Darjeeling, where the BJP-Gorkha Janmukti Morcha candidate, S S Ahluwalia, will find it hard to defend Jaswant Singh’s victory margin of 268,000 in 2009. His nearest rival was CPM’s Jibesh Sarkar who has been replaced by Saman Pathak this time.

Ahluwalia’s biggest threat is TMC’s celebrity candidate Baichung Bhutia. Backed by Mamata’s extraordinary campaign – she has made repeated trips to the hills and plains – the Darjeeling contest has assumed an extremely competitive edge. If the GJM holds sway over the three hill assembly segments, Didi has established a solid base in the four assembly segments in the plains.

But with the BJP striking deals with another regional player — Kamtapur People’s Party and a faction of the Adivasi Vikas Parishad – Mamata should be worried as it has the potential to split TMC votes in the plains.

In Jalpaiguri, the CPM is ahead, at least on paper. It has held the seat for last several terms with a significant superior vote share. In Jalpaiguri and Alipurduar the BJP is likely to emerge as a major force and may upset earlier trends. The Trinamool Congress has made deep inroads in Alipurduar, having effected defections from the RSP. The BJP too has high hopes from its alliance with GJM here and in other North Bengal seats.

In Alipurduar and Cooch Behar, the BJP traditionally has a high vote share which could go up significantly. The GJM and KPP support may add to those gains.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 17 Apr 2014 01:22

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/Sudeshvermaji/statu ... 4157212672
Sudesh Verma ‏@Sudeshvermaji 9h

This is what illegal Bangladeshi migrant are doing. And no opposition to such subversion of the mandate. Secularist? http://www.deccanherald.com/election/co ... s-too.html …
As many as 25,000 illegal Bangladeshi migrants, who are staying in slums in the eastern part of the City, will also exercise their ‘franchise’ in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, claimed Yediyur Corporator N R Ramesh.

A sting operation conducted by some private channels has shown that about 25,000 illegal labourers have settled in KR Puram, Ibbalur, Kundahalli Gate, Devara Beesanahalli and Begur.

...
Shockingly, most of these illegal migrants have got voter identity card and Aadhaar card, he said and also released pictures of migrants showing their voter identity cards. “They got these cards by paying a meagre Rs 200 to Rs 300. Now they will also decide the course of our democracy,” Ramesh said.

He said these people were brought to India and settled in Bangalore in great number as part of the vote bank politics.

Well see this is where Rahul Mehta ji makes sense and that is why I keep saying nothing wrong in beating up BJP on this issue. They only talk, but do nothing. Even now in their 2014 Manifesto they have 3 lines on Illegal Immigration

1. Page 37-38: India has a sensitive neighbourhood and there are internal security issues. There have been intrusions inside the LAC (Line of actual control), loss of squadrons of combat aircraft by the air force, witnessing of a series of accidents by the Navy, leading to a loss in its combating capability built over many decades, communal riots, Maoist attacks, increase in incidence of Pakistan backed terror groups in India, illegal immigration across the eastern border, and racists' attacks in the national capital. All these are indications of surrendering of India's interest. This calls for a review and overhauling of the current system. With the financial situation worsening, the issue of national security can acquire a horrifying dimension. BJP recognizes the importance of identifying a clear roadmap to address the issue head-on, with radical systemic changes.

2. Page 38: Review and improve the border management. Punitive measures will be introduced to check illegal immigration

3. Page 8: complete all pending fencing work along the India-Bangladesh and India-Myanmar border, stepping up border security.

But where is the word deportation?? I asked Kanchan Gupta over twitter and he says that I am an idiot and I have not read their manifesto properly. I have read every line of that damn 52 page document and did not find the word deport/deportation

Now in Karnataka, BJP has been in power with JDS from 2006-08 and on its own from 2008-13. They did not deport even one single illegal immigrant. I appeal to all brfites to really put pressure through all channels available and force these morons to publicly state that they will deport and more importantly do that when they are in power. To me this is the single largest threat in current India. Demographics is destiny.

SagarAg · Post by **SagarAg** » 17 Apr 2014 01:32

panduranghari wrote: We need war memorials for our martyrs. All indo pak wars, indo cina war, soldiers who died fighting maoists, soldiers who died fighting ltte, soldiers who died during 26/11, soldiers who have given lives under UN peacekeepers. Its the minimum we can do for our heros.

From BJP Manifesto

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Apr 2014 01:39

How well BJP can deal with issues like Abolishing Article 370, Uniform Civil Code, Building Ram Mandir, even dealing with illegal Bangladeshi immigrants, really depends on the strength of BJP alone in the elections.

If BJP gets a post-poll coalition over 272 which agrees with these issues, say BJP + Shiv Sena, then that BJP can tell others, here is the deal, either you go along or you are not part of the ruling alliance!

How many would really object?

It's possible that a LJP or a PMK may have objections, but these too would only be used to get better ministries, for negotiation purposes.

If BJP plus Shiv Sena do not have the numbers, then I am afraid these pet projects would have to be dealt with in a round about manner or be put on ice.

Even Akali Dal does not want a UCC. On the contrary they want a special civil code for Sikhs. They are also not in favor of river-linking.

On the question of Vidarbha statehood, even Shiv Sena is not with BJP.

So let's just hope BJP gets their 272 seats!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 17 Apr 2014 01:51

RajeshA wrote:How well BJP can deal with issues like Abolishing Article 370, Uniform Civil Code, Building Ram Mandir, even dealing with illegal Bangladeshi immigrants, really depends on the strength of BJP alone in the elections.

If BJP gets a post-poll coalition over 272 which agrees with these issues, say BJP + Shiv Sena, then that BJP can tell others, here is the deal, either you go along or you are not part of the ruling alliance!

How many would really object?

It's possible that a LJP or a PMK may have objections, but these too would only be used to get better ministries, for negotiation purposes.

If BJP plus Shiv Sena do not have the numbers, then I am afraid these pet projects would have to be dealt with in a round about manner or be put on ice.

Even Akali Dal does not want a UCC. On the contrary they want a special civil code for Sikhs. They are also not in favor of river-linking.

On the question of Vidarbha statehood, even Shiv Sena is not with BJP.

So let's just hope BJP gets their 272 seats!

Rajesh ji,

On this i disagree. When NDA was in power, tell me which party stopped them from deporting illegal immigrants or even fencing the border. Mamta was not part of the govt for the most part. But even she did not stop them from fencing. Jyoti Basu opposed, but he was not part of the govt nor was his party. The bottom line is BJP itself did not take the initiative. In the table I have posted in page 400 of this thread, even with 190 BJP can form govt. Which party in that list do you see as creating trouble if the govt wants to deport illegals. LJP maybe, but they can be managed. DMK/JDS or even NCP does not care 2 hoots about this. I can understand temple and stuff, but this is the easiest under the radar administrative thing that can be done and fencing is even easier, no party can object to it. They just give them alliance explanation as an alibi for their inability/non-intent.

The border fencing and deportation are just rountine administrative stuff which will be done by BSF and local police if given the nod. There is no need to pass any bill for this. Existing provisions are more than enough. And if deportations start getting reported, I dont see any of the parties who may support NDA withdrawing because of this issue.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Apr 2014 02:04

muraliravi ji,

Problem with deporting illegals is that Bangladesh never accepts them, saying they are not Bangladeshi citizens.

My suggestion is simply to paradrop all illegals from the sky, or put them into small cheap boats just outside the Bangladeshi waters. However this requires the govt. to take on human rights orgs and even Indian Muslims who would be saying Indian Govt is deporting legitimate Indian Muslim citizens calling them illegals. When Muslims start protesting then the "Seculars" would just leave the govt. and let it fall.

Basically to do this, it requires a no-nonsense govt. willing to take on the criticism head on and still continue the program of deportation.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 17 Apr 2014 02:16

This maybe OT, about illegals in southern states, there is a good deal of support from small businesses and agricultural/animal farm owners to let the illegals stay. This is mostly due to the jobs that southern states generate which allows most of the locals to choose easier and better paying employment than take up farming or work as dishwashers in restaurants etc.

I was surprised to find Rohingyas and Bangladeshis in interior Coorg and Puttur in Karnataka. Upon inquiring i was told that there are labor contractors from north who bring these folks down south on commission. And ofcourse, once they settle, they never leave. It is no different than what is happening in US or EU with illegals. Just that,the wealthy western countries have security infrastructure and a pretty transparent enforcement/judiciary to curb trouble.Where as we will once again be caught nanga if we dont stop this non-sense soon. The nigerian trouble in bangalore and Goa goes to show the seriousness of our government agencies about illegal immigration.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 17 Apr 2014 02:46

muraliravi wrote:
chaanakya wrote: MRji
Its compliment not sarcasm and to tell you that you could have been deceived as well, going by your logic.
Sir, the whole problem with UP is the 4 way contest. It is a nightmare predicting seats in a 4 way contest. But, predicting vote shares should not be that tough for any decent survey agency. But again even with that, you need to have a representative sample in all regions, it is not enough if you have representative sample for the whole state.

When you do sampling, beyond a population level, the sample size required tapers out. So literally the sample size required for lets say Kerala with 30 million pop is quite close to the sample size needed for UP. But then if a survey company uses that logic and surveys the same number of people in UP and Kerala, it may very well get kerala right and go horribly wrong in UP. UP has 6 distinct regions, so they need to treat UP as 6 Kerala's and have a sample size 6 times larger.
That is the only way they will even get vote shares right. Now to get seat tally right, their sample needs to be even better, because of the variations within each of those 6 regions. So unless someone has conceived an ultra smart error cancelling and bias removal method to predict UP which can compensate for a lower but tactically better placed sample, you ideally need 15000 data points to predict UP alone. 5forty3 had 1500-2000 data points for 10 seats in UP which is very very good in my opinion. We should be delighted by his results and his track record in the 4 assembly polls exit polls should make us confident, It is just that "once bitten twice shy" concept that is not letting me go beyond 200 for BJP.

Sir, beg to disagree. When the population is large ("infinitely large") then only the sample size matters in estimating the true percentages, i.e., the population size = N >> n = sample size. The standard error depends solely on the sample size. In theoretical statistics, we can prove that when the sampling fraction = (n/N) is less than 0.001, then it really doesn't matter what the population size (actual N) is (assuming that it is large enough). For relatively very large N (compared to n), sampling with replacement is almost same as sampling without replacement. That's all it matters.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 17 Apr 2014 02:55

Dinamani, a tamil daily, reports a 'secret meeting' where azhagiri has asked supporters to work for NDA candidates

http://www.dinamani.com/

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 17 Apr 2014 02:59

Jingos, 5Forty3.in is back on line. Here in massaland it loads, albeit terribly slowly. Traffic must be picking up for Dr.Patil's website.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 17 Apr 2014 03:01

The "population" in statistics as an abstract concept and does not necessarily map to the word population in English. If UP indeed has 6 distinct populations, then the sample for UP as a whole would necessarily be larger than Kerala (which I am assuming has less distinct regions or populations) to achieve the same error margin in surveys. If a state has 10 constituencies and they all have a similar mix of subgroups, one can treat the state as if it has just one population and the sample size needed would be less than if the constituencies are heterogeneous (read, representing different populations).

The only scenario in which one can disregard the heterogeneity within UP is an overall state election (but we do not have that system as is present in the US for state governors). In that case of course, the sample size for given error margin would be the same for UP or Kerala so long as the sample is truly representative.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 17 Apr 2014 03:54

vivek.rao wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:5forty3 still down.
Yes.

They had a good review of Vidharbha and Haryana today

543 is still down. I probably missed the Haryana and Vidharva update. Can you please give a high level update.
TIA

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 17 Apr 2014 04:04

If I remember correctly Haryana 5/10 for BJP & Vidarbha 8/10 for NDA

The number that I remember and posted here is 55/110 LS seats (NDA) that went to polls until 12th Apr 2014.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 17 Apr 2014 04:26

Vamsee wrote: The number that I remember and posted here is 55/110 LS seats (NDA) that went to polls until 12th Apr 2014.

So a 50% strike rate? That's not encouraging. There are more difficult battles to come. KA, Western MH, AP, JH, etc.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 17 Apr 2014 04:30

Guj, MP,Raj,Jharkhand, Chattisgarh are places where BJP is expecting massive sweeps.

=====================

The 110 also contains 20 seats from Kerala where BJP will not get any seats. So its basically 55/90

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 17 Apr 2014 05:23

Frederic wrote:Jingos, 5Forty3.in is back on line. Here in massaland it loads, albeit terribly slowly. Traffic must be picking up for Dr.Patil's website.

5forty3.in doesn't resolve to an IP address suggesting that the domain name servers are somehow messed-up or hacked. Oddly the IP address for the domain doesn't seem to be anywhere else either (these should propagate to other DNSes).

http://www.whois.com/whois/5forty3.in

NS1.TGSPROPERTY.IN is a nameserver that doesn't even ping. Seems like an odd name server to use and likely the cause of this problem.

http://www.whois.com/whois/tgsproperty.in

I'd guess that the site itself is still functional.

disha · Post by **disha** » 17 Apr 2014 05:24

nachiket wrote:So a 50% strike rate? That's not encouraging. There are more difficult battles to come. KA, Western MH, AP, JH, etc.

And there are states where more less difficult battles to come. GJ, Eastern UP, RJ, BH etc.

Why so much dhoti-shiver? NaMo himself says that the kind of response has surprised him and there is an yearning for change!

How it gets converted to votes is always a challenge, but NaMo himself has mentioned that he is expecting to cross 200 seats. Watch his interview on TV9. Of course there are lot of things that can go wrong till the votes are counted and no need to celebrate prematurely., but the fact is that NaMo and BJP has managed this campaign very well.

If you are expecting "... we haav thoo sheventhy thoo pluz and more are comming,,," statement, then of course I will present you Sonia ahmed singh

On a best day, I myself am not expecting more than 243. On a good day it will be around 220 for BJP and anything above 200+ is a bonus.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 17 Apr 2014 05:40

Saral wrote:
http://www.whois.com/whois/tgsproperty.in

I'd guess that the site itself is still functional.

tgsproperty website doesn't load either

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 17 Apr 2014 06:08

Re. the deportation of Bangladeshi illegals, IIRC during the ABV Govt it was tried once. The Mumbai Police had rounded up a bunch of illegals and, after obtaining proper court orders, sent a bunch of them under police guard in a train to WB to be taken to the border and deported. The newspapers made big noise about it and, when the train entered WB, CPM goons stopped and gheraoed the train and freed the prisoners. Jyoti Basu said they were all Indian citizens who happened to be Muslims from WB. So no deportation.

There can be no mass deportation until the WB and BD Govts agree, and they will not.

IMHO the only deportation that will work is voluntary deportation, i.e. if they cannot find jobs in India they will deport themselves.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Apr 2014 06:51

krishnan wrote:
Saral wrote:
http://www.whois.com/whois/tgsproperty.in

I'd guess that the site itself is still functional.
tgsproperty website doesn't load either

Maybe some Congressis in Begaluru took it down knowing it would also bring down 5forty3.in? Can someone here help out Praveen Patil? Maybe temporarily host his site on their server for about a month?

Sidd · Post by **Sidd** » 17 Apr 2014 06:55

Voted! Bangalore Central constituency.

Second person in my Booth. Quite a big crowd built up in the morning itself. Saw a north Indian Mother-Son Hi Fiving after voting, most probably voted for AAP:). In my booth BJPs PC Mohan will lead but overall the seat seems to be going Congress Way. Infosys Bala will be eating into a lot of BJP votes.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 17 Apr 2014 07:12

Kakkaji wrote:IMHO the only deportation that will work is voluntary deportation, i.e. if they cannot find jobs in India they will deport themselves.

Self-deportation is a pretty lame suggestion (Mitt Romney learned the hard way in 2012). Deporting illegals is not hard. Set up a few deportation points on the eastern seaboard (e.g., Paradip, Vizag etc), transport them there by train, and deport them by sea. Drop off point could be anywhere on the Sunderbans.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 17 Apr 2014 07:15

Kakkaji wrote:Re. the deportation of Bangladeshi illegals, IIRC during the ABV Govt it was tried once. The Mumbai Police had rounded up a bunch of illegals and, after obtaining proper court orders, sent a bunch of them under police guard in a train to WB to be taken to the border and deported. The newspapers made big noise about it and, when the train entered WB, CPM goons stopped and gheraoed the train and freed the prisoners. Jyoti Basu said they were all Indian citizens who happened to be Muslims from WB. So no deportation.

There can be no mass deportation until the WB and BD Govts agree, and they will not.

IMHO the only deportation that will work is voluntary deportation, i.e. if they cannot find jobs in India they will deport themselves.

Then Namo and BJP should stop talking about it and stop the drama. If it can be done talk about it,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cZiEutJMS4

Watch the last one minute, why is the so called visionary fooling junta that he will come and deport all bangladeshis from India, listen to the last 1 -2 mins. If they can they should put it in the manifesto, if they cant they should stop fooling people for votes.

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 17 Apr 2014 07:19

BJP may spring a surprise in Odisha, take sheen off Patnaik