Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 21 Apr 2014 22:37

Atri ji,
Did you check 5forty3 for his exit poll projections of MH?

Political earth quake if they turn out to be true.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 21 Apr 2014 22:39

Two constituencies I want Modi to win are Kanyakumari (S.TN) and TiruvananthaPuram (S.T).

Mr. Modi/AmitShah - Please note this. You copied many of my posts here and this is the royalty payment I demand!

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 21 Apr 2014 22:40

Vamsee wrote:I am looking at only pre-poll NDA getting full majority. I am aware that post poll TRS etc can join.
==============================
AP - Depends on performance of TDP
WB & TN - I would prefer not to count too many seats from these 2 states

Yes I know. I am being ambitious as I thought 5forty3 said "mathematically impossible" or something like that.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Apr 2014 22:43

RamaY wrote:Two constituencies I want Modi to win are Kanyakumari (S.TN) and TiruvananthaPuram (S.T).

Mr. Modi/AmitShah - Please note this. You copied many of my posts here and this is the royalty payment I demand!

are you working for the nation or for yourself like the die-nasties?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Apr 2014 22:46

sum wrote:^^ Well, i commented since i saw some pretty fantastic claims and dreams being woven in the previous Assembly dhaaga by some posters.

Always will remember both the 2004 and 2009 elections where even i got suckered by the Kool-aid being projected on the election dhaaga at that time and the kind of sucker punch delivered when results finally came out! Hence, have completely stopped taking in the optimism of BRF election dhaagas since then!

Which is why I tend to follow folks like MRji who are realists and look at the low end of projected results from reputed sources.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 21 Apr 2014 22:47

SaiK wrote:
RamaY wrote:Two constituencies I want Modi to win are Kanyakumari (S.TN) and TiruvananthaPuram (S.T).

Mr. Modi/AmitShah - Please note this. You copied many of my posts here and this is the royalty payment I demand!
are you working for the nation or for yourself like the die-nasties?

Like Rahul Gandhi, I want to enrich India by enriching Indian, that is me

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 21 Apr 2014 22:48

Vamsee wrote:Atri ji,
Did you check 5forty3 for his exit poll projections of MH?
Political earth quake if they turn out to be true.

Haven't subscribe. As i said, I do not wish to dream in HD.

30 seats for NDA at least for NDA in MH. 18-19 for BJP.

Fall of sugar lobby likely to be biggest story of India which will most probably go unnoticed in the din of victory. Their victory margins will drastically reduce and most seats will go.

Depends how janta behaves on 24th. Was on booth coordination duty on 17th. Now same on 24th. Trick is to make ppl vote. Voter list manipulation rampantin MH. Needs to be tackled.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Apr 2014 22:53

thank god you're not like his dad, banana pm.
pappu yama r ki jai ho!

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 21 Apr 2014 22:54

ramana wrote:You didnt send it to me! I am guided by the principle "If you dont strike oil in five sentences, stop boring"

Just tweeted this

All verses of Thirukkural are tweetable. So are most great quotes. Were humans always tweeting & just didn't know it?

geeth · Post by **geeth** » 21 Apr 2014 22:56

Is there any possibility that this 5forty3 guy took money from Kangress and to launder it, he offered public access to his site by subscription? I don't know if his rosy figures which others mentioned are too good to be true...

Anyway, lot of fun with numbers..I hope I don't have to throw my TV remote control onto the wall again, (As I did in 2009) after the results on 16th. If that happens, I will never read politics for the rest of my life.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 21 Apr 2014 22:58

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 5h

Hapur satta market giving 234-241 for BJP 69-76 for Congress nationally.Phalodi bazar BJP 244-246 1 Rupee after 5 phases

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 1h

RSS leaders anticipating 10 seats for BJP in Odisha including Bhubhaneshwar.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Apr 2014 23:00

Amit Shah says 18/21 in UP so far, and the tough part of UP is done. 5forty3 is saying 16/21. The remaining 59 seats may be 75% for Modi. Which gives BJP 60/80 for UP. My guess is Bihar will be at least 30/40 and Jar will be 11/14.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Apr 2014 23:02

geeth wrote:Is there any possibility that this 5forty3 guy took money from Kangress and to launder it, he offered public access to his site by subscription? I don't know if his rosy figures which others mentioned are too good to be true...

Anyway, lot of fun with numbers..I hope I don't have to throw my TV remote control onto the wall again, (As I did in 2009) after the results on 16th. If that happens, I will never read politics for the rest of my life.

It is certainly possible, but there is a Modi wave in the heartland of India. BJP will do much better than 180 seats it did in 1999.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 21 Apr 2014 23:02

Boss, if you read 543, HE IS GIVING CONSERVATIVE RESULTS, he is not going gung ho that his number suggests. Please keep that focus.
So exit polls (in absence of MR ji) or data that you need to follow -
543
ibtl
niran
(all pre poll surveys)
some handles in twitter (some actual insiders from polling agencies/grounded journalists). Take all those inputs. I am still with Modi at 200ish. Let's see what actually it is.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 21 Apr 2014 23:03

geeth wrote:Is there any possibility that this 5forty3 guy took money from Kangress and to launder it, he offered public access to his site by subscription? I don't know if his rosy figures which others mentioned are too good to be true...

Anyway, lot of fun with numbers..I hope I don't have to throw my TV remote control onto the wall again, (As I did in 2009) after the results on 16th. If that happens, I will never read politics for the rest of my life.

No. Even before NitiCentral was started, Shashi Shekhar used to run a blog called offstumped. Praveen Patil (5forty3) guy used to comment on that blog. He was RW even at that point.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Apr 2014 23:04

For me anything less than 363 for NDA is a loss.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 21 Apr 2014 23:07

I would be ecstatic if pre-poll NDA is >260

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 21 Apr 2014 23:07

Saswati Sarkar ‏@sarkar_swati 50m

There is a group of dedicated RSS/BJP cadres in WB -they are upbeat now & believe they are in contest in 14 seats & are expecting 20% votes

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Apr 2014 23:09

For Many Indian Voters, Corruption Issue Takes a Back Seat at the Polls
Wall Street Now Targeting, Profiling Yeddyurappa

SHIMOGA, India—Politician B.S. Yeddyurappa was forced to step down as chief minister of his state nearly three years ago and jailed for weeks after a series of corruption allegations against him.
A few weeks from now, Mr. Yeddyurappa, who hasn't been charged and who denies the allegations, is expected to get a seat in Parliament.Political corruption is a defining issue in India's national elections. Surveys show widespread dissatisfaction over pervasive graft. Parties trade allegations and battle to be seen as the cleanest alternative.But when it comes time to cast ballots, many voters are more concerned with picking the candidate they believe is most likely to deliver the goods—whether those are new roads or more generous welfare programs—needed by their communities.Karnataka voted Thursday in India's parliamentary elections. Results are due May 16.In a campaign speech in the southern state of Karnataka one recent evening, Mr. Yeddyurappa, a candidate for the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, boasted that while in office he had pushed through measures to increase pensions and offer interest-free loans to farmers. And he promised to defend the use of areca nut, a mild stimulant wrapped in betel leaves and chewed in many parts of India, which some public-health advocates say can cause cancer.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Apr 2014 23:09

^not a loss for NDA, but for desh to move forward from slavery.

just think about MMS alone.. sad! he was the slave #1

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 21 Apr 2014 23:16

Suraj wrote: A new administration will have to sit down right away and clear the huge stack of files pending at the commerce , environmental and finance ministry. Clear a whole lot of them in one go as the equivalent of a defibrillator shot. The next government really has no 100 day honeymoon period or anything like that. May 16th is 2 weeks from the start of monsoon season. If that's delayed due to the La Nina effect, they'll be in trouble within less than a month. It's imperative that positive sentiment be backed up by a set of policy actions immediately, preferably before June, so as to absorb any downward sentiment from a weak monsoon.

listen to the thanthi tv interview (http://www.thanthitv.com/Video/VideoLis ... 6b64677139) . he clearly talks about the 'policy paralysis' of current admin and his top priority is to clear all the decisions pending to get things moving asap.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 21 Apr 2014 23:19

saw cnn ibn now. all the people the reporter asked in central chennai said would vote for modi. Whats news there? And was surprised that aam looking people would bring up reasons like dollar strengthening.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Apr 2014 23:20

SaiK wrote:^not a loss for NDA, but for desh to move forward from slavery.

just think about MMS alone.. sad! he was the slave #1

Tweet that.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Apr 2014 23:29

SaiK wrote:^not a loss for NDA, but for desh to move forward from slavery.

just think about MMS alone.. sad! he was the slave #1

MMS= Madam Maino Slave #1

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Apr 2014 23:56

Jhujar, I tweeted that.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 22 Apr 2014 00:16

ramana wrote:Jhujar, I tweeted that.

2 Media Trader Madams now are on verge of loosing their mental balance. BRFTweeple now have the opportunity to reinforce the imbalance message by getting to them Via Mediacrook.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Apr 2014 00:21

Need some more info as to who and from where.

That MMS #1 is going well.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 22 Apr 2014 02:58

ramana, what do you think of the analysis of 5forty3 ?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Apr 2014 03:15

I don't like his misuse of mathematical words. Why not just say it for what it is and let the reader decide. A sincere person overwhelmed by past historical data in a wave type election. Hope he manages to survive past this election.

One lurker said the GJP is one of the best projects for its a sum of all the polls that the readers get access. And Saral is putting statistical analysis on top of it.
So wait for Thursday evening (PST) when he posts right after polls close on 4/24!

I'll request him to post them earlier if possible.

BhairavP · Post by **BhairavP** » 22 Apr 2014 03:45

Atriji,have lost hope for South Mumbai. Old timers including dad and his friends, committed diamond market and industrial players, put off by Arvind Sawant and his arrogance. Was very rude to some elderly folk at the candidate meetings.
Milind Dora comes off as suave and business friendly in comparison, heck, even Nandgaonkar seems to be better behaved!

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 22 Apr 2014 04:28

BhairavP wrote:Atriji,have lost hope for South Mumbai. Old timers including dad and his friends, committed diamond market and industrial players, put off by Arvind Sawant and his arrogance. Was very rude to some elderly folk at the candidate meetings.
Milind Dora comes off as suave and business friendly in comparison, heck, even Nandgaonkar seems to be better behaved!

North-Central can't be counted as well. I don't see Poonam Mahajan beating Priya Dutt there. Last time Priya Dutt got more votes than the BJP and MNS candidates put together.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 22 Apr 2014 04:34

^^^Remember to tell family and friends that a vote for bjp is a vote for Modi who will turn things around no matter who your MP is. Hold your nose and ~~kamal~~ dhanush-baan ka button dabao.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 22 Apr 2014 04:45

Thanks for the clarifications. He will survive depending on whether he is closer to the end result. If he is way off and (Gods forbid) UPA3 comes, then....

GJP ? What's that ?

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 22 Apr 2014 05:08

Tell your family and friends MPs are needed for change of large policies facing the nation. Local MLA's and MLC's are the ones who need to take care of local issues.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 22 Apr 2014 06:08

http://centreright.in/2014/04/analysis- ... 1XBdkqx_9p

NDA 4-15 seats in tamil nadu

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 22 Apr 2014 06:58

Sanjay wrote:ramana, what do you think of the analysis of 5forty3 ?

He has the habit of creating his own Jargon and Acronymns and misuses mathematical statements.At the end of the day we will have to see how his predictions turn out -whether fluke (previous analysis) or consistent analysis. One thing is he really needs to work on his website- access is difficult initially.It doesn't load well on a mobile platform/There are large breaks of silence in his postings, His twitter feed that he posts on his web site doesn't work.His comments section is never moderated and the only persons posts which come upin his comments section is someone called Jitender Desai!

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 22 Apr 2014 07:37

Bhairav bhai,

As mortullah said, hold ur nose and vote for dhanush-Baan. This will pass onlee. I am personally discounting south bombay. It was my estimate that they wid let mns win south bombay and in turn he will not create problem elsewhere. So far no confirmatiom from ppl who matter. Please chk brf on 24th morning before you go to vote and look for my post addressed to you. Will let you know whether they have let that seat to mns. In that case vote mns. Else request u to vote for sena.

Sena candidates are either chors or chutiyas this time. They are piggybacking on modi. Fair enough, we piggy backed on balasaheb to gain traction in mumbai too. So it is just, at least this time.

As far as mumbai NC is concerned, poonam has a fighting chance. AAP will eat the chichi votes of bandra west cloud along with nota. Most wont come to vote only. Bandra west is India's malibu. Muslims had major sabha on friday and finally decided to back priya dutt en masse. Farhan azmi was cutting the votes and they decided to vote for PD to stop NaMo. Factor working in PM's favor is alliance of big chunk of marathis, gujjus and bhaiyyas. And absence of MNS. If voting jumps 10-15% here and crosses 60, insha allah unthinkable WILL happen.

Threat is shiteloads of bangladeshi votes in muslim areas. Pain in mush onlee.

Speaking of muslims, yesterdays rally was quite incendiery. Sena leaders were speaking as if they are motivating hindus to do what they did in 1992 riots. Urged hindus to remember how BT and Sena saved them from muslims in 1992 riots. Quite unnecessary but was surprised to see that mention. Of course the relevant point was Aug'2011's asad maidan rally and abuse of lady-police officers of the faithfuls. Ppl werr turning sides uncomfortably upon mention of 1992 though.

UT too spoke of muslim problem but in relatively subtle way. It was heartening to hear old style hindutva speech in this devpt din. Public's har har mahadev was genuine. I was worried abt election commission and media picking on ramdas kadam for his speech. Good that it went unnoticed in togadia's gaffe.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 22 Apr 2014 07:53

Atri wrote: Fall of sugar lobby likely to be biggest story of India which will most probably go unnoticed in the din of victory. Their victory margins will drastically reduce and most seats will go.

This is a real Deepavali moment. Hope this time our wishes are really horses.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 22 Apr 2014 08:01

Mort Walker wrote:For me anything less than 363 for NDA is a loss.

Really, you are expecting that high number?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 22 Apr 2014 08:04

ramana wrote:You didnt send it to me! I am guided by the principle "If you dont strike oil in five sentences, stop boring"

Where is Acharya these days? Unless he is in a different Avatar...