Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Apr 2014 05:52

nageshks: as others mentioned, a very good post indeed. That's why I was skeptical of people complaining about so many phases being a Cong plot. While it helps Cong in the heartland where the BJP is stronger, it does the reverse elsewhere, enabling the BJP and RSS to shift their less established cadre between phases. I'm not sure whether to call the Congress base a 'cadre' as such - we often hear that BJP is the cadre-based party, as opposed to the Congress.

However, it's very true that by and large, the Cong has the deepest and broadest countrywide political base. They've won the popular vote in 14 of 15 GEs. They polled 20% more votes than BJP even when they hit the nadir in 1999. I don't know whether to say that the BJP+RSS+VHP etc have fewer cadre in total than the Cong. The most recent numbers I've seen is that the RSS is deploying 7 lakh people in this election effort to help energize and get out the vote. Even in places where they can summon nearly as many people at Cong, the problem is that Cong is simply far more established and 'know the right people' better.

In these elections, the BJP will definitely encounter seats in new places where it wishes it could summon more feet on the ground to canvass votes. But that's not a bad thing - in many of these places (e.g. TN and KL), BJP didn't until now even have mindshare as a potential choice. Further, a lot of the Cong low level apparatus is not necessarily ideological, but just function as a political bureaucracy. The BJP will have to both gain its own cadre depth and decimate the Cong low level cadre. In some places, this already happened before the elections, as some saw the way the wind blew. If the BJP wants to be the de facto national party instead of Cong, it's important that they squeeze the Cong low level base in the south.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 27 Apr 2014 06:03

Further, a lot of the Cong low level apparatus is not necessarily ideological, but just function as a political bureaucracy. The BJP will have to both gain its own cadre depth and decimate the Cong low level cadre. In some places, this already happened before the elections, as some saw the way the wind blew. If the BJP wants to be the de facto national party instead of Cong, it's important that they squeeze the Cong low level base in the south.

+1.

Notice how, when once the INC was out of power in a state (Odisha, GV, WB, TN), clawing back to power is so difficult for them only, despite retaining a decent voteshare in all these places even today.

Which is why, there is hope still for places like MH and AP where, now, once INC is ejected from power somehow, the template to follow to keep them from power is well-laid out and understod.

Lotus failure in KA to do this to INC is doubly depressing for that reason...

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 27 Apr 2014 06:16

so net essense is that it is hard to find low-corrupt baboze who can sustain.. desh will see only sustained high-corrupt babooze. blame it on bjp being low on corruption [reverse mapping those who are strong candidates seems to be highly corrupt].

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 27 Apr 2014 06:36

the most important feedback I am waiting is on niran's for 24th. I believe, I have read all the news and tweets on 24th and 543 and other sites. My take, this was the toughest round for BJP, not because of states like TN where it does not have much presence and any seat won is gain, but because in 3 places, MH, UP and BH (also Assam), it has the toughest fight with con or SP/RJD. Any clean sweep by BJP seals the fate, any decimation of BJP put them back at a coalition that they may not be able to cobble. With fraud in MH, Three Mulayam family men fighting in UP, and strong MY in BH this is the toughest round. All data points to that it is too close to call, but with Advantage BJP. So Niran sir, what is the feedback?

In cricket term, do we have to play teh second inning or we have won? (of course the otehr round, seats have to be faught and won, but this is the pivot round.

niran · Post by **niran** » 27 Apr 2014 06:57

fanne wrote:the most important feedback I am waiting is on niran's for 24th. I believe, I have read all the news and tweets on 24th and 543 and other sites. My take, this was the toughest round for BJP, not because of states like TN where it does not have much presence and any seat won is gain, but because in 3 places, MH, UP and BH (also Assam), it has the toughest fight with con or SP/RJD. Any clean sweep by BJP seals the fate, any decimation of BJP put them back at a coalition that they may not be able to cobble. With fraud in MH, Three Mulayam family men fighting in UP, and strong MY in BH this is the toughest round. All data points to that it is too close to call, but with Advantage BJP. So Niran sir, what is the feedback?

In cricket term, do we have to play teh second inning or we have won? (of course the otehr round, seats have to be faught and won, but this is the pivot round.

in UP the score line should be 8/12. i.e. out of 33 till now BJP has 90% plus chances in 28
out of the 3 Mullayam men Dimpill is certain loss, yeah! despite all the tricks in book she will lose, Ashkay Yadav is in 50/50 zone.
Bihar the score line is Bjp 7 others 0 for 24th, out of 20 till now BJP 19 congress 1 others ghanta.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 27 Apr 2014 06:57

are they going "to congress" world over?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 27 Apr 2014 07:02

so BJP is pulling all 7. The yadavs of Bhagalpur going with RJD sounded too good to be true, they did not vote rjd (voted BJP) when Laloo was at the height of his power!! The Bhagalpur riot you know was between whom and whom, what caste was at the fore front. Which seat you are giving con in Bihar - Sasaram or Aurangabad (I guess Sasa)? What 4 are gone for BJP in UP?
So this round was good for BJP. Maybe they can now win with an inning then.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 27 Apr 2014 07:30

Suraj wrote:nageshks: as others mentioned, a very good post indeed. That's why I was skeptical of people complaining about so many phases being a Cong plot. While it helps Cong in the heartland where the BJP is stronger, it does the reverse elsewhere, enabling the BJP and RSS to shift their less established cadre between phases. I'm not sure whether to call the Congress base a 'cadre' as such - we often hear that BJP is the cadre-based party, as opposed to the Congress.

Thanks, Suraj. It is, as you say, perhaps improper to say that the Congress workers are a cadre per se. The Congress, however, has been in power in the Centre and most of the states for most of the time, and consequently, they have a large bunch of hangers on of power in most of the country (including places like TN, where they have been out of power for 30+ years. While their cadre strength in TN is less impressive than that of AIADMK or DMK, they can beat any of the others hands down even today. I know, from personal experience, how many Congress workers there are in Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri and Chennai constituencies). At the rural level, most go-to-guys (this is the guy who helps the rural folk get their birth and death certificates, their BPL card, etc) double up as Congress workers, at least in KT and TN. This is the guy who explains to the local folk, often with chicken biryani packet and a bottle of country alcohol, who to vote for, who is contesting and what he gets from voting the Congress. A bit higher up the food chain is the village sarpanch, the panchayat board members, etc. Most of those in power or those who have just gone out of power (but are hopeful of returning next time) are Congressmen, present or former. Most double up as Congress workers in an election. So, even if the theoretical RSS/VHP membership is higher, the available manpower is far, far greater for the Congress. Further, the RSS cadre are non-political folk, for the most part. They consist of part-time volunteers, who just want to see the BJP come to power, and have no stake in it themselves. These are honest workers, and will often go to great lengths to make sure BJP wins, but since they have little personal stake in the outcome, they are often harder to motivate too (this is why enthusing cadres is so vital for the BJP - if the cadres see little to cheer about in their candidates and/or leaders, the BJP candidate is done for, even if the BJP cadres technically outnumber Congress workers).

There is another source of manpower for the Congress-the NGOs, who are often taking grants from governments (both India and abroad). Many of these are left oriented and have a pathological hatred of the BJP. During elections, you can expect them to do everything they can for the Congress (usually, Congress is well placed to stop the BJP, so they campaign for it).

There is a second part to this too. BJP voter base is the middle class in the urban areas, and the better off farmers in the rural areas. In short, the BJP voter base is the educated voter base, who again have little personal stake in the outcome of the elections. Believe me, getting these folk to vote is like pulling teeth. You can't get these folk to vote with a bottle of country liquor, or a packet of biryani. These are high maintenance (not in terms of money, but often in terms of effort). In my own example, I had to figure out who had not voted, go to their homes, and often drive many people to the booth, which was five minutes walk away, but since there were fifteen of us in my booth, we could manage to do both this and helping the folks at the booth, by taking turns ferrying people to the booth in our cars. So, the getting the BJP voter base to the booth may take a larger effort than getting the Congress vote bank to the booth.

Sanku-ji often waxes eloquent about how BJP is judged more harshly by voters than the Congress, and how BJP voters flock to the Congress when the BJP fields a less than perfect candidate/leader/agenda, but this is not really the case. What is true is that the BJP voter base, being educated and well acquainted with facts, expects a decent amount of governance, but not a five hundred rupee note. BJP voters don't usually move to the Congress, or elsewhere, the moment BJP fields a bad/corrupt candidate. If the BJP is uninspiring, the cadres stay the hell away from volunteering, and there is no one to push the BJP voters to the ballot box.

However, it's very true that by and large, the Cong has the deepest and broadest countrywide political base. They've won the popular vote in 14 of 15 GEs. They polled 20% more votes than BJP even when they hit the nadir in 1999. I don't know whether to say that the BJP+RSS+VHP etc have fewer cadre in total than the Cong. The most recent numbers I've seen is that the RSS is deploying 7 lakh people in this election effort to help energize and get out the vote. Even in places where they can summon nearly as many people at Cong, the
problem is that Cong is simply far more established and 'know the right people' better.

From personal experience, I can tell you that the number of people you need per booth is 10-20 (depending on whether the region is urban or rural, sensitive or not, etc). The number of booths in the country in 2004 was 6,87,402, and I assume that the figure is similar today. Even if the RSS mobilised 7 lakh people, it means that there is approximately a grand total of one RSS person per booth. They would need to find another nine to nineteen people per booth, for every booth. To make matters worse, even in states where the RSS is strong, it is strong only in specific areas - like the communally sensitive , and urban areas. So, BJP often has a surfeit of workers in some areas (like the previously mentioned Dakshin Kannada in KT), while there are very few workers in other areas. On the other hand, the power hangers on of the Congress are widely and evenly spread throughout the states, from urban areas to the most remote rural regions, because there is power in every place and Congressmen have it (or have had it) in every place. Uneven spread of BJP workers makes it problematic for the BJP.

In these elections, the BJP will definitely encounter seats in new places where it wishes it could summon more feet on the ground to canvass votes. But that's not a bad thing - in many of these places (e.g. TN and KL), BJP didn't until now even have mindshare as a potential choice. Further, a lot of the Cong low level apparatus is not necessarily ideological, but just function as a political bureaucracy. The BJP will have to both gain its own cadre depth and decimate the Cong low level cadre. In some places, this already happened before the elections, as some saw the way the wind blew. If the BJP wants to be the de facto national party instead of Cong, it's important that they squeeze the Cong low level base in the south.

IMHO, Suraj, it is best if the BJP works to eliminate the political bureaucracy entirely, and makes them redundant. While the political bureaucracy is much more efficient than the BJP cadre at political tasks, it is also high maintenance in itself. The local tout who puts up a cutout of your candidate, and persuades the poor labourer to vote with a bottle of country liquor or a thousand rupee note, expects much for himself from your administration in return. If you try to reward him, your government will become another Congress government. This low level political bureaucracy (except for constitutionally mandated political posts) is best crushed and eliminated by more efficient governance which reaches the common man. This low level political bureaucracy, which carries the Congress culture in its bones, is the curse of this country.

The south and northeast are an entirely different problem altogether for the BJP. The spread of the RSS, outside Malabar and the communally sensitive Karnataka coast, is quite thin (except in some urban regions). BJP not only lacks manpower, it lacks manpower that speaks the correct language. How many proper Tamil speaking RSS folk do you know? Or Assamese speaking RSS folk? In the past, BJP used to ferry Tamil and Telugu speaking people from Bangalore to campaign for it in other states. But these are stop-gap efforts, possible only when the BJP is contesting a few constituencies. The BJP (and its sister organisations) will have to recruit massively in erstwhile AP and TN to work for it, establishing a shakha in every village. Same goes for the NE. These are massive logistical challenges, particularly since the BJP-RSS work often with non-political folk, who have a genuine desire to make things better in the country, but are not in it for political spoils.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 27 Apr 2014 07:49

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinio ... connect/2/
Fifth Column: A dangerous disconnect

They waited for hours under a scorching sun to catch a glimpse of Narendra Modi. And, when he finally came, they shouted ‘Hello Modi’ as if he could hear them. In seconds he was gone, but they were happy to have seen him. I asked a young man in a Modi T-shirt why he supported him, and he said, “He will bring us ‘vikas’ like he has done in Gujarat.” I pointed out that he was a politician not a magician, and he replied, “We believe that when it comes to development, he is a magician.”Afterwards I tweeted that I had covered every election since 1977 and had never seen anything like the frenetic fervour of the crowds on the streets of Benaras. This caused a torrent of insults on Twitter, so I went that evening to Papu’s chai shop for a reality check. At this teashop in a teeming, squalid square near the Assi Ghat gather politicians, thinkers, philosophers, political analysts and students. They sit on wooden benches near an open drain and discuss the problems of the world. On an earlier visit, I discovered that the level of political discourse was higher than in Delhi because people speak without worrying about being labelled ‘fascist’ or ‘communal’.This time I found myself sitting between a historian from BHU and a retired museum curator. They said of that morning’s crowds that they had never seen such an exhibition of political support before in Benaras. I asked why Modi was so popular and they said people were desperate for real change. For Benaras, they want municipal infrastructure and the Ganga to be cleaned. For India, they want a leader who will stand up to “insults” from China and Pakistan, and in terms of “vikas”, they want economic policies that will create prosperity and jobs. They told me of the hopelessness of public services in education and healthcare and said these could be easily improved with good governance.
Since I first discovered signs of a Modi wave in rural Rajasthan last summer, I have been reporting in this column that development and governance were going to be the big issues in this election. For my pains, I have been labelled anti-Muslim, anti-Sonia and fascist. There are other charges unrepeatable in a family newspaper. What has intrigued me most is the arrogant assumption that it is wrong to support Modi. Famous editors and public intellectuals have gone public with their love for Sonia Gandhi and her children and this is considered normal, but unless you compare Modi to Hitler, you are an intellectual pariah. If this is liberalism, we better learn to live without it because more than half of India is likely to end up in the pariah box after this election.Modi is not just development but magic, so in the 60 months that he has asked for, he better be able to magically transform India. This is because in no other election have I seen aspirations raised to such a pitch. Has he not noticed that most of the media hates Modi? I have met eminent editors and celebrated TV anchors who have admitted this openly and till not long ago were certain that Modi would not win a single seat outside Gujarat. Modi frightens most of us ‘intellectuals’ because in our leftist, liberal little hearts, we know that he brings with him not just political change but a revolution. This could bring to the fore the sort of people who gather in Papu’s chai shop and land our more renowned public intellectuals in history’s dustbin.And, this is only one of the grim problems that remain unmentioned as we babble on daily about secularism and communalism and how India will be destroyed if Modi becomes prime minister. Let me state clearly that if he destroys the India created by 67 years of Congress-style secularism and socialism, he will be doing India a real service. Now that is something we should be talking about!

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Apr 2014 07:57

^ from above

Let me state clearly that if he destroys the India created by 67 years of Congress-style secularism and socialism, he will be doing India a real service. Now that is something we should be talking about!

I made that underlined statement a couple of years ago to much takleef of erudite members and glad the idea went mainstream.

I pray it comes to reality on 5/16.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 27 Apr 2014 08:04

niran wrote:in UP the score line should be 8/12. i.e. out of 33 till now BJP has 90% plus chances in 28
....
Bihar the score line is Bjp 7 others 0 for 24th, out of 20 till now BJP 19 congress 1 others ghanta.

I agree. The victory margins will be probably be lower from these seats though, but a win is a win. JDU will be wiped out, and RJD will have a few seats at the most.

amritk · Post by **amritk** » 27 Apr 2014 08:12

bhargava wrote:

Gowhati Jalukbari

... dafaq??

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 27 Apr 2014 08:15

btw niran, I think numbers are in consistent. For UP you had said before 18 out of 21 and now 8/12 so it is 26 of 33, why you say 28, sloppy math or just a fatta?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Apr 2014 08:32

nageshks, what can I say ? Another magnum opus from you

I wasn't suggesting the BJP co-opt the low level bureaucracy though - I was suggesting what you were, i.e., that they should be eliminated through a proper administrative framework. This bureaucracy is the real 'Congress system', not the SG/RG/PG.

I think your description needs wider publicity. A lot of even what's called corruption is just the transactional cost of dealing with this quasi-party bureaucracy at the day to day level. They are described as a soulless venal bureaucracy, but the association with the Cong is not made, despite their dual role.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Apr 2014 08:34

Difference Between Modi Wave and Anti-Modi Sentiment is About 100 Seats

http://www.newindianexpress.com/prabhu_ ... 190919.ece

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 27 Apr 2014 08:37

< 272 !

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Apr 2014 08:51

That is just BJP. NDA should be 300+
Next important point is that CON will be reduced to 70 odd seats.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 27 Apr 2014 08:54

This is in line with what I also feel. Details in my blog rlindia at blogspot.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 27 Apr 2014 09:05

Dont take me wrong. I am working on a scenerio if NDA gets a. 232 seats b. 242 seats . where would the other 30 /40 seats come from. You will have Lallu with 5 seats picking his nose in public proclaiming the mandate is towards secular parties.IN that scenerio
a. Jaya 10-15 seats
b. Karuna 10-15
c. Mamta 15 seats
d. NCP 10 seats
Ir congis get 120 seats then this total is 175 . Who are the other 125 LS members and how can Modi put forward a coalition once he tells Pranabda, as the largest party, he will form the Govt

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 27 Apr 2014 09:07

Hari Seldon wrote:
Further, a lot of the Cong low level apparatus is not necessarily ideological, but just function as a political bureaucracy. The BJP will have to both gain its own cadre depth and decimate the Cong low level cadre. In some places, this already happened before the elections, as some saw the way the wind blew. If the BJP wants to be the de facto national party instead of Cong, it's important that they squeeze the Cong low level base in the south.
+1.

Notice how, when once the INC was out of power in a state (Odisha, GV, WB, TN), clawing back to power is so difficult for them only, despite retaining a decent voteshare in all these places even today.

Which is why, there is hope still for places like MH and AP where, now, once INC is ejected from power somehow, the template to follow to keep them from power is well-laid out and understod.

Lotus failure in KA to do this to INC is doubly depressing for that reason...

In TN, the INC has been out of real power since a very long time. In TN INC - there is a lot of churn happening but they are still quite weak even though not as weak as the TN BJP (which is yet to attempt to build a cadre base even). There was an attempt to rejuvenate the TN INC cadre base by Pappu over the last 3 years but no results are being seen. The name of this project was TN Youth Congress and there were very big announcements that their drive to collect volunteers had lead to many lakhs of TN youngsters joining the party. On the ground though - nothing is working. None of the Youth Congress people got voted in as either MLA (inspite of TN INC contesting 63 MLA seats in 2011) or MP (this time). After the DMK - TN INC is the party where the main Non-Hindu people flock to become cadres. Their % is increasing as against the % of Hindus. The INC party leaders of KA come for campaigning in Hosur/Krishnagiri areas, the Telugu leaders canvass in areas like Tiruttani, Avadi and KL leaders may also be coming to areas in TN border with KL. I can understand the INC guys trying to put up a non-TAMIL type candidiate in border seats of TN like Hosur/Krishnagiri/Tiruttani/Kanyakumari/Colachel areas (bordering KA, Seema Andhra and KL states) but we are starting to see some very interesting development of non-TAMILs being put up by TN INC in current election in the METRO seats also.

Take the case of one Mr.Biju Chacko (who appears to be a guy with a Malayalee christian background) , a TNYC guy and as is usual, a political guy involved in Land Broker, Realtor business - who is standing as INC candidate from NORTH CHENNAI LS seat. There are a lot of Malayalee people in Chennai & Coimbatore since a long time and as is their wont - they do get integrated with local society in terms of adopting the local language (even though Tamil is not difficult to adopt for a Malayalee). Hope i am not wrong - but first time i am noticing this type of a candidate being put up by INC in TN in a metro seat. Either TN INC is so weak that they are putting up such candidates or INC people from nearby states are consciously pushing in their people into TN to bolster the TN INC party unit. The DMK & Communists might not speak about this but AMMA will use fringe Tamil Nationalist groups like Naam Tamizhar organizations to bust such candidates & in general - the anti-Tamil intentions of TN INC to put up such people in TN seats. AMMA had in the early 2000s ... tore into Sonia Gandhi's Italian origin and questioned whether India needs such people to rule itself. Still TN INC - on a stand alone basis - is a dead entity in almost all areas of TN but for some life in border regions with KL & KA.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Apr 2014 09:09

you forgot navin patnaik. I feel Jaya + Patnaik might be the least troublesome prospects. NCP has the baggage of the pawarful. Mamata is actively wooing the islamist constituency. DMK might not get enough seats to be a help. orissa has very few mussalman so Patnaik does not need to woo them to survive...that way ideologically not much conflict with core NDA philosophy I feel.

but TDP had better deliver May7 else its game over. it was failure of TDP and wipeout of TN NDA in 2004 that opened the gate of Gondor to the orcs.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 27 Apr 2014 09:14

amritk wrote:
bhargava wrote:

Gowhati Jalukbari
... dafaq??

5 election officers including the fellow shown "helping" voters and the photographer who didn't report it were arrested yesterday

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 27 Apr 2014 09:23

niran ji, your post brings a breath of fresh air. There are lot of gloom and doom type numbers floating around. This is a true test of nerves, I hope your ears are closer to the ground than anyone else's. Let Mahadev's kripa be on dharmics.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Apr 2014 09:27

The BJP has changed the election campaign paradigm

http://www.hindustantimes.com/comment/s ... 12631.aspx

On a visit to Mumbai two days before the city would vote, I did the clichéd thing of talking to Nithyanand, my cab driver, on a slow ride from the airport into town. A second-generation Tamil migrant in Mumbai, Nithyanand is 32. I asked him whom he was going to vote for. He smiled: “Ab ki bar, Modi sarkar, sir!” He said he’d be voting for Rahul Shewale, Mumbai South Central’s candidate from the Shiv Sena, an ally of the BJP. The Marathi chauvinism of the Sena, which in its early days targeted south Indian immigrants, especially Tamils, in Bombay (as it was then known) didn’t seem to faze him although he admitted that his parents had suffered during those years. He said it was to Narendra Modi that his vote would go and that if things had to change and his future turn brighter there was only one man in these elections who could do that.

As it happened, on voting day, Mumbaikars did better than they traditionally do — the turnout was the highest in 25 years — and everyone said this was in keeping with the high voting in most large cities because urban Indians want to plump for change. A few hours after my chat with Nithyanand, Maharashtra’s articulate and well-respected chief minister, Congressman Prithviraj Chavan, told me how the BJP’s campaign had not only turned the polls into a presidential form of elections, pitching Modi as the PM candidate but it was also the first time that product marketing principles had been used in elections and that regardless of whether it created “a tsunami, a wave or a ripple”, there was a lesson in this for the future.

He is right. How successful Modi’s singular campaign is will be known less than three weeks from now, but the contrast between his and the Congress’ campaign couldn’t be starker. Modi revved up his campaign long before the election dates were announced. In six months, he’s addressed more than 400 rallies; the BJP’s advertising, all of it focusing sharply on one man, has been like a relentless series of carpet-bombings; there’s been copious use of hi-tech aids such as simulcasts of his campaigns using 3D holography and real-time feedback analysis from key constituencies; and, not to forget, an eager media has generously covered the blitz, particularly the TV news channels, which have lapped up feed from every meeting he’s addressed and telecast it live.

In contrast, the Congress’ campaign has been tepid. Its star campaigner and vice-president Rahul Gandhi can hardly match the demagogic yet arresting oratory of Modi, who skilfully customises his messages for the audience he’s addressing with appropriate tweaks depending on whether he’s at a Google Hangout or he’s speaking at a rally of Dalits. Gandhi is a poor public speaker and even though he’s addressed nearly 100 rallies since March 1, his oratory isn’t impressive. Questions have been raised about the BJP’s huge spends — on rallies, advertising and merchandising — and the sources of funds but the Congress’ promotional efforts have been low key, so much so that, at least in the beginning, it even opted for black and white print ads, which got lost in the clutter.

It is almost as if the two parties are fighting two different elections — one here and now and the other in the past. The BJP has been quick to adopt technology, modern marketing and new media tools to take things to a new level, while the Congress’ campaign has been retro-styled and old-fashioned. Elections aren’t won solely on the strength of rallies or advertising. The vast majority of people’s votes, like Nithyanand’s, are decided by who they think will make their lives better. But, if the BJP strikes success when the results are announced on May 16, it may well have changed the way elections will be fought in the years to come.

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 27 Apr 2014 09:33

LS 2014 : Voter turnout in Tamil Nadu, second best since 1967

The final figure of 73.68 per cent polling in Tamil Nadu, released by the office of Chief Electoral Officer on Saturday, makes the turnout in the Lok Sabha elections the second highest after the 1967 figure of 76.56 per cent.
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Dharmapuri, where caste clashes have resulted in polarisation, topped the list, with 81.14 per cent. Three other constituencies — Karur, Arani and Perambalur — polled more than 80 per cent. In the 2009 polls, Karur alone breached this mark.

Officials at the CEO office said polling of over 75 per cent was considered significant by the Election Commission. This mark was surpassed in 21 constituencies in 2014, compared with 17 in 2009.

vic · Post by **vic** » 27 Apr 2014 09:37

Re Niran

Tere ko Rahul Gandhi ki pappi. Now does it mean BJP is looking at 260 seats itself and NDA around 320?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Apr 2014 09:40

TOI India ‏@TOIIndiaNews 3h

#DanceOfDemocracy Officials 'guide' voters in Dausa http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 270102.cms

TOI India ‏@TOIIndiaNews 4h

#DanceOfDemocracy After Kandhamal's riots, 'secular' Naveen prefers to go it alone http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 271837.cms

Internet Hindoo ! ‏@DrShobha 4h

“@GanapathyI: A Dalit BJP leader Udit Raj, said Ramdev has not said anything wrong against Dalits http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... on-remark/ … ”

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 27 Apr 2014 10:44

71 lakh names deleted from voter list, but larger number added: Election Commission

The Election Commission (EC) may have apologised for the deletion of thousands of names from the voters list in Mumbai, but officials within the body insist that the exercise to revise the electoral roll was undertaken meticulously.

In the last two years, 71.76 lakh names have been deleted from the State’s electoral rolls. But 74.74 lakh names added, EC sources say. In Mumbai, around 14 lakh names have been deleted and around 7 lakh names have been added to the rolls, according to informed sources.

“Maharashtra’s electoral roll was bloated because new names were being added and invalid names were not being deleted. Usually deletions are at least 50 per cent of additions. We had to undertake a major revision,” said Deputy Election Commissioner Sudhir Tripathi.

Maharashtra’s electoral roll also faced another major problem. “There were many names in the roll for which photos were absent,” he added. While most other States had a match of over 90 per cent between the names and photos on the rolls, in Maharashtra it was just about 70 per cent.

However, it is the manner in which the roll was revised which has caused a problem. Election Commissioner H S Brahma has admitted to procedural lapses. “I have not seen this kind of massive operational mistake. This kind of unauthorised deletion happened due to the lack of supervision and coordination on the ground,” Mr. Brahma told journalists.

However, EC sources claimed a long process was followed before the names were deleted. And that the deleted list was shared with political parties and published in newspapers. “House visits were undertaken before deleting names. The lists were also put up online. People should have checked the voters list in advance to check if their names were on it,” said a senior EC official in Maharashtra.

However, this has been disputed by many. Filmmaker Shivendra Sinh Dungarpur said he did not recall anyone from the EC staff visiting his house, but found his name struck off the list. “I have voted in the last two elections and have not shifted residence since then. Naturally I assumed I did not have to check if my name was on the list,” he said.

EC officials say their checks are handicapped by the lack of a dedicated staff. “We rely mainly on school teachers to do the house visits. Also metros face the problem of anonymity. Often neighbours do not know each other and cannot confirm if someone lives in the address listed,” said a senior EC official.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Apr 2014 11:04

dna ‏@dna 9m

The Modi wave: An election of hope and not hardliners says @mazumdar_sid http://dnai.in/cbdQ

If one were to scan every punctuation in Modi’s speeches, a man who was once labeled ‘Hindu Hriday Samrat' by his critics, the word Hindu would never be found. A study of Modi’s speeches reveals that the most frequently occurring word in his speeches is “Bharatiya” and not the name of any religion. This template extends to most of the top BJP leadership including Modi’s perceived protégé Amit Shah. If one were to watch in totality his alleged ‘hate speech’ in Shamili earlier this month, he concludes by making an appeal of not to vote on caste or religious lines. After all there would have been compelling evidence that Election Commission considered when it exonerated Shah by lifting his campaign ban last week.

...
Development and decisive leadership has been the principal engine of the Modi campaign. Though an iron-strong leadership was a BJP poll plank in 2009, Modi’s track record as an able administrator provided the party unprecedented credibility on the twin D’s—development and decisiveness—in 2014. Given that UPA’s decade long misrule forms the context of these elections, Modi has been extra cautious of not trying to alter the popular mood of the electorate. Such firm has been his conviction in the twin D’s that Modi even uses development as a vehicle for his minority outreach. From talking about the crisis of the power loom sector in Akbarpur, quoting the success of Gujarat’s kite industry to promising a transformation in the weaving industry in Varanasi, Modi has chosen to reach out to Muslims by offering to revive industries that employ them. This strategy is a marked departure from the modus operandi of the ‘secular’ parties who have traditionally used the fear or appeasement psychosis to preserve their ‘minority votebank’.

...
India’s diversity begins to exert itself on any rising wave. And BJP well wishers such as the Sangh are extremely cautious of this time tested principle. A party which is making serious efforts to expand its foot print beyond the cow belt and after a virulent effort has succeeded in making economy as a central election discourse has the remotest incentive to create any communal fault line. This paradigm shift in the party’s thinking—of evolving as true national party—is also reflected by, the rather less noticed, renaming of its flagship slogan Mission 272+ to Mission 300+.

Beyond electoral rhetoric, facts and performance clearly point that over the years the BJP has abdicated identity politics in favor of good governance as an instrument to remain in power. And perhaps this explains why Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have been able to defy the anti-incumbency trend more than once.

A closer analysis of central government data on communal violence incidents between 2011 and 2013 establishes that Congress ruled state have a much higher frequency of religious violence compared to the BJP governed ones. And not surprisingly Uttar Pradesh fairs the worst in maintaining communal harmony in the country. Even the Sachar committee recognises the greater participation of Muslims in public sector workforce in BJP ruled states. And it is precisely these facts and figures which Modi has been successfully able to use to punctuate the ‘secular’ credentials of his opponents.

If any attempt has been made to polarise these elections, they have mainly emanated from the opposition camp and fringe right winged elements, the latter’s political significance is close to nonexistent. Fortunately till date any attempt to veer of the discourse of this election has had minimal impact on the ground.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Apr 2014 11:05

Internet Hindoo ! ‏@DrShobha 14m

CPM leader Budhdeb Bhattacharya accepts that Modi is unstoppable in Bengal also.

dna ‏@dna 46m

Kamal Nath overrules envt secy, grants 500 hectares of forest land to builders as parting gift http://dnai.in/cbfY #DNAtopstory

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 41m

Union urban development Minister Kamal Nath approves a major land use change ahead of the polls

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 38m

Kamal Nath and Haryana CM Bhupinder Hooda went ahead with decision to convert forest land into natural conservation zone despite resistance

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 37m

EC had allowed Union Urban Development Minister Kamal Nath to hold meeting, but prohibited him from taking any policy decisions

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 36m

BJP cries foul over approval of a major land use change ahead of polls, alleges violation of model code of conduct #India2014

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 27 Apr 2014 11:24

Only on 16th Others would know what hit them. The Juggernaut ( derived from Lord Jagganath's Chariot in Famous Rath Yatra in Puri) of NaMo is unstoppable. The voting pattern indicates that young , students , professionals, middle class, women, old and infirm, cutting across caste lines have voted for Modi. Please do not take this as vote for BJP. NOTA could be about 10% among young and students. Others are decisive.

Congis would struggle to cross 60-70. Many established bastions are going to fall leaving psephologists red faced.

UP and Bihar are total sweep. Nikuamma is biting dust and his govt is going by end of this year. We are staring at assembly election soon. Congis and RJD will draw nominal seats less than 5, methinks.

Even TN is proving difficult for Amma. NaMo has turned BJP around in TN. Likely to get 10+ seats from unlikeliest of places. Amma and DeeMaK would not be a major force at least for five years. But Amma sure would support NaMo but I doubt NaMo would need any post poll arrangement as it would get 272+ on its own. NDA+ will be second highest, if not the highest, in the electoral history of India.

Congis and its legendary organisation and its members are at the receiving ends even within their close circuit. Now that they are calling Brother of MMS a Vibhishan , they have tacitly admitted to being a Raavan and NaMo a Ram.

I am ready to be ridiculed on 16th after 12.00 Noon by which time we will know if good triumphs over evil or not.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 27 Apr 2014 11:37

sudarshan wrote:Looks like 5forty3's TN predictions are in line with the conservative estimates of Muraliravi, Frederick, et. al. Good to know - that builds confidence in 5forty3's other analysis and predictions.

sudarshan ji the lower bound stands on much firmer grounds but nobody is quite sure of the upper limit. In a swing/wave election this is expected. Probably 2% votes will decide about 50-60 seats after 240 mark. Nobody has the wherewithal needed to be able to predict that well.

I would be satisfied with 230-240 for PrePollNDA. After that I treat everything as windfall. People have been very angry and deprived since last 3 years. Hope they get their well deserved windfall. Dekho, samay bada balwaan hai aur ab 20 din bache hein.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Apr 2014 11:44

narendra nath ‏@iamnarendranath 21m

Save tweet- Prediction for Bihar result NDA-25,UPA-15.JDU will get one or two...

Hoping for at least 28-29 in Bihar!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Apr 2014 11:51

Close encounters of the live-wire kind

http://www.dnaindia.com/delhi/report-cl ... nd-1982440

In Barambora village, some 40-km from Dharbhanga city, Abhi Ram Chowdhry is awaiting BJP's prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi to take over Delhi and fix a burnt transformer in his village of 1,800 souls.

The village has been without electricity for over the past 15 years after a 25KV transformer installed in his hamlet burnt out due to excessive load. Since then, despite several representations and running exercises through offices, the burnt transformer stands at a village crossroad like some kind of an archaeological structure, reminding the villagers that they once had power.

Just 10-km away, in a village in Tumul panchayat, electricity is being considered a curse. In order to pocket money, the electricity department pitched bamboos to carry the electric lines and they are now almost touching the ground. In the past one year, 10 buffaloes and three villagers have either died or been maimed due to electric shock.

Village Diha in Shahebpur Kamal block in the neighbouring Begusarai district, had electricity connection till 1984. But a massive flood washed away the electric polls here. Since then nobody has come to the village to reinstall the polls or reinstate electricity.

Like Chowdhry, Ram Kumar Yadav of Tumulare is not a traditional BJP supporter. The villages here have been voting for the RJD and in between switched to JD (U) after the latter had promised to construct a road and to put up polls for electric lines.

"We have now pitched our hopes on Modi to fix our problems. We are fed up, having to run around offices leaving our fields. They don't listen to us," says Yadav.

Village Dauvi, around 50-km from Dharbhanga city, is just opposite the electricity sub-station. It has no power, however. An engineer in the sub-station told dna that they had submitted a plan to electrify the village 10 years ago, but were still awaiting orders and funds to purchase 500-meter wires.

...
BJP's massive advertisement blitz portraying the Gujarat model of development as panacea for all ills has touched the imagination of the floating voters, who give vote on issues of development cutting across caste and community. But more than those in the Muslim community, it is this voter segment that is now perturbed at BJP's Nawada candidate Girijar Singh's remarks that those who don't like Modi as PM should go to Pakistan. They are equally perturbed at former BJP president Nitin Gadkari's statement that casteism is in Bihar's DNA.{While such utterances should be a concern to the BJP and must be avoided, I think Gilani saab is giving it far too much importance}

...
"Some BJP leaders are going overboard. Many Hindus simply hate such utterances and are moving away from the BJP. The tragedy is that the party does not understand this," said Professor Sachidanand Singh of LN Mishra University in Dharbhanga.

Hindus moving away now on the basis of a couple of statements is an exaggeration but if a big stink involving very controversial issues like UCC does occur during BJP's 1st term it will harm its future prospects. Better let such issue lie dormant till you have convinced a majority to your point of view. In the mean time aggressively rewire the internal governmental machinery that supports and sustains all the anti-national and always mind your language.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 27 Apr 2014 11:58

Door to door campaign by RSS. Just ask one question to the broader Hindu society at large. "Are you happy with your traditions being changed at whims by legislature while others get to keep theirs".
Most Hindus don't even know they are taken for a ride by the republic.

vic · Post by **vic** » 27 Apr 2014 12:06

Living in Delhi, I am yet to meet anybody who said he will vote for Congress in last few months. If NAMO wave turns out to be true then BJP itself may get 270+

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 27 Apr 2014 12:08

RajeshA wrote:
narendra nath ‏@iamnarendranath 21m

Save tweet- Prediction for Bihar result NDA-25,UPA-15.JDU will get one or two...
Hoping for at least 28-29 in Bihar!

15 for upa is over estimate.That lone one in 15 will be knocked down on 16th.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 27 Apr 2014 14:05

SRoy wrote:Door to door campaign by RSS. Just ask one question to the broader Hindu society at large. "Are you happy with your traditions being changed at whims by legislature while others get to keep theirs".
Most Hindus don't even know they are taken for a ride by the republic.

See how people have to go to courts for freeing temples off government controls. It is like we are ruled by barbarians and no one is saying a word.

vineetmehta · Post by **vineetmehta** » 27 Apr 2014 15:21

SRoy wrote:Door to door campaign by RSS. Just ask one question to the broader Hindu society at large. "Are you happy with your traditions being changed at whims by legislature while others get to keep theirs".
Most Hindus don't even know they are taken for a ride by the republic.

Would be great if i can have more information on this topic. Would be helpful to understand and take the information to the people around me. Thanks

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Apr 2014 16:48

can someone also explain Mujrai which I was told is how funds are siphoned officially from hindu temple trusts and given to mainority orgs ?