Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mort Walker » 29 Apr 2014 18:31

muraliravi wrote:Here are the exit polls in 2009

Headlines Today: UPA 191, NDA 180
Star-AC Neilsen: UPA 199, NDA 196
India TV-C Voter: UPA 189-201, NDA 183-195
CNN-IBN-CSDS: UPA 185-205, NDA 145-160
The Times of India: UPA 198, NDA 183

I would say csds was closest to reality, they got NDA almost perfect, they predicted the wind correctly, but just did not predict the extent of UPA victory very accurately. So I would not conclude that they were wrong, and surely they were not right either.


Final results of 2009: UPA 262, NDA 159, 3rd Front 79. Could be because NDA allies were well known and UPA allies accumulated as the election in 2009 went on.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 29 Apr 2014 18:33

Mort Walker wrote:
muraliravi wrote:Here are the exit polls in 2009

Headlines Today: UPA 191, NDA 180
Star-AC Neilsen: UPA 199, NDA 196
India TV-C Voter: UPA 189-201, NDA 183-195
CNN-IBN-CSDS: UPA 185-205, NDA 145-160
The Times of India: UPA 198, NDA 183

I would say csds was closest to reality, they got NDA almost perfect, they predicted the wind correctly, but just did not predict the extent of UPA victory very accurately. So I would not conclude that they were wrong, and surely they were not right either.


Final results of 2009: UPA 262, NDA 159, 3rd Front 79. Could be because NDA allies were well known and UPA allies accumulated as the election in 2009 went on.


Yes sir, so overall while most exit polls got UPA close to 200, they overestimated NDA and CSDS was the only one to get NDA right. But exit polls are easier than prepolls. I had posted csds prepolls in 2009 also, they did well on that too.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 29 Apr 2014 18:44

Minhaz Merchant ‏@minhazmerchant 3h

What the devil! ED: Saradha's Sudipto Sen bought Mamata's paintings for Rs 3cr in wife Piyali's a/c http://www.mumbaimirror.com/news/india/ ... 068458.cms
The Calcutta High Court on Monday ordered the West Bengal government to repay investors affected by the Saradha chit fund scam.

In addition, the enforcement directorate (ED) has started investigating the role of TMC ministers in the multi-crore scam.

Sources in the ED said that West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who is also an artist, sold two of her paintings to Saradha CEO Sudipta Sen for Rs 3 crore.

"The transactions were made from the account of Sen's wife Piyali," the source added.

Piyali Sen and her son Subhajit were arrested last week for their alleged role in a money laundering case.

---------------->
Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 1h

Will now Mamata apologize to Namo? TMC Audited accounts reveals for 2012, Rs 3.93 crores receipts from sale of paintings !! Where is Arnab?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 29 Apr 2014 19:30

dna ‏@dna 8m

Election Commission finds Congress' Milind Deora, Sanjay Nirupam guilty of paid news http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report-e ... ws-1983380 … pic.twitter.com/QtTrzjpBeK
Livemint ‏@livemint 9m

BJP demands EC probe into voting ‘manipulation’ in Arunachal Pradesh http://mintne.ws/1m6wxOk

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 29 Apr 2014 19:39

Singha wrote:when the time for the downfall of the Yadava clan came, they became arrogant and pleasure seeking. Krishna and Balarama kept quiet because they knew what was fated.
<snip>


The Yadavas who followed Sri Krishna & Balarama went to Dwaraka.
There are some Yadavas who stayed back under Jarasamdha's rule. Current Yadava population is that group.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Adrija » 29 Apr 2014 20:02

Current Yadava population is that group.


Err, no...............current yadav have no relation to the yadav clan of Krishna..........they merely renamed themselves in the 1920s IIRC...

Anyway's, off-topic, so unless you want to drop it, we can take it in the Distorted History thread

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 29 Apr 2014 20:06

Adrija wrote:
Current Yadava population is that group.


Err, no...............current yadav have no relation to the yadav clan of Krishna..........they merely renamed themselves in the 1920s IIRC...

Anyway's, off-topic, so unless you want to drop it, we can take it in the Distorted History thread


Please give us brief history of Yadavas in that thread.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Adrija » 29 Apr 2014 20:27

^^ will do this weekend

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby munna » 29 Apr 2014 20:40

How is AAP is playing it fine in Punjab? They are pointing to the inescapable fact that central BJP sold its own in the state. An octogenarian eye doctor who is the AAP candidate in Amritsar is having a ball with the deceits of SAD against BJP. Mind you he has treated poor for free across Majha region since decades and is now calling upon his patients with the emotive appeal of giving him his "fees" now!! :P

Don't expect SAD to support Jaitley in future: AAP

Accusing SAD of working against former BJP MP from Amritsar Navjot Singh Sidhu, AAP today said if the Akalis did not support a Punjabi, how could they be expected to support Jaitley, who is a non-Sikh and not from the city. "If Akalis can cut the roots of their own Punjabi, Navjot Singh Sidhu of BJP,who is Arun Jaitely to them --a non-Sikh and not even a resident of Amritsar?" said AAP's candidate from the seat Daljit Singh during his rallies and road shows today. "Navjot brought many innovative schemes for Amritsar, but Akalis, especially Bikramjit Singh Majithia, worked against him.

<snip>

"If a man as clean as Sidhu, who tried to upgrade Amritsar with the international airport, a waste management plan and other schemes, could not grow due to?vested interests of Badals and their kin, how will Badals and Akalis digest Jaitely if he tries to do the same thing for Amritsar" ."Secondly, when Akalis have vested interests in terms of Mohali versus Amritsar, why would they let Amritsar grow into an international hub in comparison to Mohali and Bathinda (from where daughter-in-law of CM Parkash Singh Badal Harsimarat Kaur is contesting)," he quipped.

<snip>

"Haven't the Akalis grabbed both top positions in the state government, with the seat of CM and the deputy CM :(( . What was given to BJP? he asked. "Akali,BJP and Congress have morally lost their right to ask for votes. They are asking for your votes and promising to make your children and men folk drug addicts and alcoholic," he said.


I hate to say this but this is one AAP candidate who is laying the truth bare for the public. It is important for Team Modi to understand one point, a rogue ally that undercuts your leaders and plays devious games can be the downfall of the entire cabinet a la Mr A Raja.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 29 Apr 2014 20:45

munna, Everyone on Pandavas side was not 100% Dharmic. I know you are on a "BJP in Punjab sucks" crusade but not att his time. The old doctor is doing emptional ataychar and should be shown his place. When he did not charge fees he did not say will collect it later as votes.
If so he is guilty of misrepresenting his altrusitic behavior.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SRoy » 29 Apr 2014 20:48

Have to go with SAD now.
But in next 5 years need to get rid of SAD, SS, TDP et. al. These 'allies' do more harm than good.
Punjab, BTW is one FUBARED state.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 29 Apr 2014 20:48

Every ally is a rogue. Tell me one who is not. CBN is a fox and unreliable from TDP. The Sena go and cross vote to INC. INLD comes and goes. Ultimately the BJP has to become a goonda on its own and that was lacking.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby munna » 29 Apr 2014 20:49

ramana wrote:munna, Everyone on Pandavas side was not 100% Dharmic. I know you are on a "BJP in Punjab sucks" crusade but not att his time. The old doctor is doing emptional ataychar and should be shown his place. When he did not charge fees he did not say will collect it later as votes.
If so he is guilty of misrepresenting his altrusitic behavior.


BJP does not sucks sir, its ally does! BJP on its own, left untouched would have delivered all seats in its quota to national kitty. I am perturbed at conversion of 3 safe seats into 3 dicey seats. All people on the side of Team Modi would like to contribute max to national kitty, is it wrong to attempt the same from Punjab?

Compared to 3 it could be just 1 or 2 at best (if heavens are benevolent) :((

Muppallaji wrote:Every ally is a rogue. Tell me one who is not. CBN is a fox and unreliable from TDP. The Sena go and cross vote to INC. INLD comes and goes. Ultimately the BJP has to become a goonda on its own and that was lacking.


True that. BJP should atleast not politically assassinate its own leaders to keep allies in humour. Fine you may not play hardball with them but to snuff out careers of promising leaders to keep Daddy-Son happy? Not done!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mort Walker » 29 Apr 2014 21:02

muraliravi wrote:
Yes sir, so overall while most exit polls got UPA close to 200, they overestimated NDA and CSDS was the only one to get NDA right. But exit polls are easier than prepolls. I had posted csds prepolls in 2009 also, they did well on that too.


But since CSDS was so off on the UPA, is it possible they simply got lucky and or that a lot of UPA's strength comes from rural areas where exit polling by the various agencies are lacking? I am still leery about all the different polls. 5forty3 has a good track record from the last assembly elections, but as you said it may not be as good in all states. I thought their reporting from TN was pretty good.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 29 Apr 2014 21:09

TMC leaders worry about burning bridges with Modi

http://gulfnews.com/news/world/india/tm ... -1.1325902
Kolkata: Trinamool Congress (TMC) leaders are worried about the possible future implications of the ugly fight between Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi, and West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee.

Both parties have been trading charges of corruption against each other even before polls were announced. But now the war of words, between TMC and BJP has turned personal, ugly and utterly divisive.

Those within the TMC are worried that burning bridges with Modi, the man who is the front runner in this electoral battle, can cost the party in the days ahead.

“Without the support of the central government the state government will not be able to run the show. Burning bridges with Modi by attacking in such personal life was not required specially if he becomes PM,” said a TMC candidate with repeated request of anonymity.

“As a chief minister you have to have a working relationship with the prime minister. Even if you oppose him politically a certain level of decency needs to be maintained. Mamata should not have gone with the flow,” he added.

TMC strategists worry that even people of rural Bengal who probably have not heard about Modi but will surely now do as Banerjee herself is talking about him.

“The best way is to ignore such comments, or reply with specific data to blunt opponents charges. Name calling actually helps the opponent get milage. However, some of our partymen decided to go upto the point of no return, and fall into BJP’s trap,” said another state minister.

“Just 10 of the 42 seats in West Bengal have gone to polls so far. Before this there is no need to give further publicity to Modi,” he added.

The Saradha chit-fund scam which surfaced in April last year, has reappeared as a major issue this elections, where Enforcement Directorate is on the verge of interrogating state government minister for their alleged role. It has already questioned TMC candidate from Balurghat, Arpita Ghosh, about her involvement in the group’s media business. It has issued notices to several persons close to Mamata.

Till date, none of the investigating agencies have been able to trace the money.

Modi who is expected to campaign in West Bengal again before May 4 is expected to return Banerjee the favour for her choice of words.

“If Modi become PM, and even if TMC wins all the 42 seats, it will not make any difference, since BJP is not dependent on West Bengal in its bid to capture power in Delhi. Whatever additional seats it wins, it will be a bonus,” said another TMC leader, who admits of an undercurrent in the state.

Analyst believe that by attacking Modi, Banerjee was actually ruling out any possibility of tie-up with the National Democratic Alliance, post elections, which she believes will help her to win big in the state, given her strong support amongst the minorities in the state.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby munna » 29 Apr 2014 21:12

Mort Walker wrote:But since CSDS was so off on the UPA, is it possible they simply got lucky and or that a lot of UPA's strength comes from rural areas where exit polling by the various agencies are lacking? I am still leery about all the different polls. 5forty3 has a good track record from the last assembly elections, but as you said it may not be as good in all states. I thought their reporting from TN was pretty good.


Au contraire

2010-11 most critical years…we made mistakes, were disconnected: Chidambaram

The cities of India voted us to power, except for Bangalore. And all the poorer states to which we had directed many of our anti-poverty programmes did not vote for us. We got fewer seats in the poorer states and we got many more seats in the affluent urban areas of India,” Chidambaram said.


The exit polls got the 2009 trends right but failed to gauge the extent. All of them put the UPA nose ahead of NDA's. They could not simply fathom the pro-INC sentiment in urban areas at that time. 2014 is a different ball game and PC knows that.
Last edited by munna on 29 Apr 2014 21:15, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mort Walker » 29 Apr 2014 21:15

Munna,

The way I saw it in many parts of central and northern India was that Congress cadres were there aplenty in villages and a lot of older folk in villages were(are) pro Congress.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby rajithn » 29 Apr 2014 21:16

SRoy wrote:Have to go with SAD now.
But in next 5 years need to get rid of SAD, SS, TDP et. al. These 'allies' do more harm than good.
Punjab, BTW is one FUBARED state.


+1. This is exactly what NaMo will work towards. A BJP majority government always, with no need for allies. 2014, there may need to be some allies, some with questionable intentions too, but further on towards 2019 and beyond..BJP will have to stand on its own. And this is very much in the realm of possibility - and we will have a curtain raiser to this as early as May 16th.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby munna » 29 Apr 2014 21:20

Mort Walker wrote:Munna,

The way I saw it in many parts of central and northern India was that Congress cadres were there aplenty in villages and a lot of older folk in villages were(are) pro Congress.


Sir, almost all rural and agri-based socities/states in North and Central India have already given INC a solid kick on its Musharraff. Cities like Kanpur, Chandigarh, Delhi ityadi went with INC big time in 2009. Quite simply MMS was accredited with performance of the economy by urban electorate that was actually seeded by ABV. It is simply not the case this time....

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mort Walker » 29 Apr 2014 21:24

^^^Thanks. I'm not on the ground now, but can only state what I observed in the last decade. If what you're saying is true in villages, then for the NDA to get 300+ should be a cake walk.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanjay » 29 Apr 2014 21:27

Remind me someone, what was CSDS's last pre-poll this time around ?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby munna » 29 Apr 2014 21:33

Mort Walker wrote:^^^Thanks. I'm not on the ground now, but can only state what I observed in the last decade. If what you're saying is true in villages, then for the NDA to get 300+ should be a cake walk.


Wokay sir, since I cannot talk quantitative data because my fourth coujin in BJP HQ refued to give it to me, I will begin with a qualitative article by Onkar Goswami.

250 For BJP Is Possible

The performance of BJP will boil down to following points or fulcrums mentioned in the article (bold):

At the beginning of the year, in an article for this magazine (BW | Businessworld issue dated 27 January 2014), I had expressed doubts about the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Narendra Modi securing 210 Lok Sabha seats in this national election. I concluded, “as of today, it isn’t obvious how the BJP on its own can win 210 seats” and argued that if it won less than 200, Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik or Jayalalithaa might end up calling the shots.

<snip>

Things can change. But, as of now, I need to admit that I was wrong in January 2014. It seems clear to me that the BJP is set to not only comfortably cross the 210 mark, but also take a realistic shot at around 245 to 250 Lok Sabha seats. Let me suggest why.

It is useful to start with two critical states: UP and Bihar. In the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had 51 seats in a united UP, including all five seats in what is today’s Uttarakhand (fulcrum 1). Disenchantment with the Samajwadi Party is at its peak; barring a few constituencies, the Indian National Congress is a non-entity in the state; and many would agree with me that the polarisation of voters according to religious lines is at least as pronounced in 2014 as it was in 1999. Therefore, much as some may consider the thought outrageous, I wouldn’t be surprised if the BJP won around 50 seats in UP.

On to Bihar. In 2009, the BJP won 12 seats out of 40, and the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), clinched 20. The JD(U) is in shambles, and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal will probably cut into a quarter of his seats. Bihar BJP’s Sushil Modi runs a tight ship. And the NaMo wave can help the BJP to claim 20 seats in this elections. Maybe even 25 with some extra luck. So, UP and Bihar could get the BJP 70 to 75 seats in the aggregate.(fulcrum 1 aggregate)

What about the BJP’s backyard, namely Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand? (fulcrum 2) Gujarat has 26 seats, of which the BJP should secure 22. In Madhya Pradesh, it should win 24 out of the 29. Even if Sachin Pilot gives a stiff fight, the BJP should get 20 of the 25 seats in Rajasthan. And 9 out of 11 in Chhattisgarh plus 10 out of 14 in Jharkhand. That makes it a sub-total of 85 seats for the BJP.(fulcrum 2 aggregate)

The total now rises to 155 to 160 seats. Now for a few other states. One should expect the BJP to win 14 of the 28 seats in Karnataka; seven of the 10 seats in Haryana; five of seven seats in Delhi NCT; 20 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra; 10 out of 42 in Andhra Pradesh; and perhaps eight of the 21 seats in Odisha by eliminating the Congress and getting a few Biju Janata Dal seats as well. This sub-total is 64 seats. (fulcrum 3 aggregate)

Add the three sub-totals and you get 224 seats. With such tailwind, the BJP should also pick up bits and bobs everywhere bar the North-east. I expect it to gain another 26 seats (fulcrum 4) across Uttarakhand, Himachal, Goa, Punjab, some of the Union territories and West Bengal.


Let us see if all the four fulcrums manage well!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rahul M » 29 Apr 2014 21:34

^^^
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 247822.cms

Lok Sabha polls 2014: NDA to get 234-246 seats, says survey

NEW DELHI: As the opinion polls wind up before the real polling begins on Monday, the pollsters have promised a victory for BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and a smooth takeover of the next government by Narendra Modi. A survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) on Friday claimed that NDA minus Telugu Desam Party will win 246 seats.

TDP, whose tie-up with BJP was not clinched till the survey was done, is expected to win at the most 19 seats, thus taking the total NDA tally to 265, just seven short of the simple majority of 272.


Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SaraLax » 29 Apr 2014 21:47

Sanjay wrote:Remind me someone, what was CSDS's last pre-poll this time around ?


Pre-poll Conducted in March 2014 : NDA = 234 - 246
Refer http://ibnlive.in.com/news/national-tra ... 10-81.html

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 29 Apr 2014 21:48

Mort Walker wrote:
muraliravi wrote:
Yes sir, so overall while most exit polls got UPA close to 200, they overestimated NDA and CSDS was the only one to get NDA right. But exit polls are easier than prepolls. I had posted csds prepolls in 2009 also, they did well on that too.


But since CSDS was so off on the UPA, is it possible they simply got lucky and or that a lot of UPA's strength comes from rural areas where exit polling by the various agencies are lacking? I am still leery about all the different polls. 5forty3 has a good track record from the last assembly elections, but as you said it may not be as good in all states. I thought their reporting from TN was pretty good.


That is the issue. We should all use surveys to read the direction of the wind and not gauge the intensity of the wind. So this election NDA is ahead and by a decent distance, that is all we can say. The can win a landslide or make a govt with a lot of partners. We just wont know until may 16.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 29 Apr 2014 21:52

Yashwant Deshmukh ‏@cvoter 57m

The polarization of minorities for Congress is now confirmed in Varanasi. Can we rule out a counter-polarization which saved MMJ last time?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SaraLax » 29 Apr 2014 21:53

munna wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:^^^Thanks. I'm not on the ground now, but can only state what I observed in the last decade. If what you're saying is true in villages, then for the NDA to get 300+ should be a cake walk.


Wokay sir, since I cannot talk quantitative data because my fourth coujin in BJP HQ refued to give it to me, I will begin with a qualitative article by Onkar Goswami.

250 For BJP Is Possible

The performance of BJP will boil down to following points or fulcrums mentioned in the article (bold):

At the beginning of the year, in an article for this magazine (BW | Businessworld issue dated 27 January 2014), I had expressed doubts about the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Narendra Modi securing 210 Lok Sabha seats in this national election. I concluded, “as of today, it isn’t obvious how the BJP on its own can win 210 seats” and argued that if it won less than 200, Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik or Jayalalithaa might end up calling the shots.
.
.
.

Add the three sub-totals and you get 224 seats. With such tailwind, the BJP should also pick up bits and bobs everywhere bar the North-east. I expect it to gain another 26 seats (fulcrum 4) across Uttarakhand, Himachal, Goa, Punjab, some of the Union territories and West Bengal.


Let us see if all the four fulcrums manage well!


Sir - Fulcrum4 is quite tough and Goswami is expecting 26 seats from UK/HP/GOA/PUN & UT's for BJP/NDA .... Is it not too much ?.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby munna » 29 Apr 2014 21:54

pankajs wrote:
Yashwant Deshmukh ‏@cvoter 57m

The polarization of minorities for Congress is now confirmed in Varanasi. Can we rule out a counter-polarization which saved MMJ last time?

Deposit bachao krantikari bhai!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SaraLax » 29 Apr 2014 21:55

pankajs wrote:
Yashwant Deshmukh ‏@cvoter 57m

The polarization of minorities for Congress is now confirmed in Varanasi. Can we rule out a counter-polarization which saved MMJ last time?


What sort of a ? is this ...

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 29 Apr 2014 22:00

^^
Yashwant Deshmukh ‏@cvoter 1h

Ajay Rai is considered a strong leader who has carried the Brahmin and Bhumihar votes with him so far. After Mukhtar; unsure of that in now.
So now that the muslims have lined behind Ajay Rai the forwards(B&B) might shift towards Modi i.e counter-polarization
Yashwant Deshmukh ‏@cvoter 56m

Dalits in Varanasi are primarily Behen Ji territory and Yadavs will stick to Neta Ji. You have the spread complete in Varanasi. Air-tight.
Yashwant Deshmukh ‏@cvoter 56m

Modi needed an insurance policy in Varanasi; which came in form of Apna Dal and Kurmi votes. Now he can also expect Upper Caste to join.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 29 Apr 2014 22:01

munna wrote:250 For BJP Is Possible

The performance of BJP will boil down to following points or fulcrums mentioned in the article (bold):


The total now rises to 155 to 160 seats. Now for a few other states. One should expect the BJP to win 14 of the 28 seats in Karnataka; seven of the 10 seats in Haryana; five of seven seats in Delhi NCT; 20 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra; 10 out of 42 in Andhra Pradesh; and perhaps eight of the 21 seats in Odisha by eliminating the Congress and getting a few Biju Janata Dal seats as well. This sub-total is 64 seats. (fulcrum 3 aggregate)

Add the three sub-totals and you get 224 seats. With such tailwind, the BJP should also pick up bits and bobs everywhere bar the North-east. I expect it to gain another 26 seats (fulcrum 4) across Uttarakhand, Himachal, Goa, Punjab, some of the Union territories and West Bengal.


Let us see if all the four fulcrums manage well!


I really doubt the last 2 fulcrums.
KA - reduce at least 2 seats if not more
Haryana - reduce by at least 2
MH - BJP alone wont get more than 17, reduce 3
Andhra+TG - BJP will get at best 2 seats, so reduce 8
Orissa - BJP may get 3, reduce 5

He is exaggerating Fulcrum 4 by at least 8 seats, they cant manage more than 18 seats in NE and all the mentioned states.

So overall he is overestimating BJP by 30 seats even from an optimistic perspective. 10 in AP+TG for BJP alone takes the cake.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rahul M » 29 Apr 2014 22:07

muraliravi ji, check this out.

SaraLax wrote:Sir - Fulcrum4 is quite tough and Goswami is expecting 26 seats from UK/HP/GOA/PUN & UT's for BJP/NDA .... Is it not too much ?.

he is discounting NE, don't know why, there's 7-10 from NE alone.

Assam 5-7
AP - 1-2
Manipur 1-2
Total 7-11

then,
Goa 1
HP 2-3
UK 3-4
Pun 4 (?)
A&N 1
Other UT's 2-3
Total 13-16

20-27 in all.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 29 Apr 2014 22:08

After losing his contract with india tv, timesnow and headlines today, I can safely say that yashwant deshmukh has also lost his mind.

What ridiculous piece of psephology is this, he claims that in varanasi dalits will stick to bsp, yadavs will stick to SP, brahmins, bhumihars and muslims are going to vote for ajai rai, so what does he want to convey that Namo will lose deposit.

Varanasi will be a pure bipolar contest is what he says next and does not realize that in this one tweet he is contradicting all the BS he tweeted before.

My sureshot prediction, Varanasi will be a one way contest, all hindus will vote for Namo and rest will vote for congress. Namo will win by unprecedented margins.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 29 Apr 2014 22:11

Rahul M wrote:muraliravi ji, check this out.

SaraLax wrote:Sir - Fulcrum4 is quite tough and Goswami is expecting 26 seats from UK/HP/GOA/PUN & UT's for BJP/NDA .... Is it not too much ?.

he is discounting NE, don't know why, there's 7-10 from NE alone.

Assam 5-7
AP - 1-2
Manipur 1-2
Total 7-11

then,
Goa 1
HP 2-3
UK 3-4
Pun 4 (?)
A&N 1
Other UT's 2-3
Total 13-16

20-27 in all.


Sir, BJP will win all 5 in Uttarakhand. But in punjab they are only contesting 3 and will win 1. Others UT's they will win daman/diu and dadar. Assam best case 5, Arunachal 1, Manipur will be big zero.

So UTT-5. Goa -1, HP-2 (will lose mandi and shimla), Punjab -1, UT's including Andaman - 3, Assam -5, Arunachal -1 makes it 18.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby munna » 29 Apr 2014 22:11

muraliravi wrote:After losing his contract with india tv, timesnow and headlines today, I can safely say that yashwant deshmukh has also lost his mind.

What ridiculous piece of psephology is this, he claims that in varanasi dalits will stick to bsp, yadavs will stick to SP, brahmins, bhumihars and muslims are going to vote for ajai rai, so what does he want to convey that Namo will lose deposit.

Varanasi will be a pure bipolar contest is what he says next and does not realize that in this one tweet he is contradicting all the BS he tweeted before.

My sureshot prediction, Varanasi will be a one way contest, all hindus will vote for Namo and rest will vote for congress. Namo will win by unprecedented margins.


Hello sir read what he has been saying all along. He is talking of deposit loss for Mr Krantikari after the rebound billiard shot of today. He hails from Varanasi and is a key guy for dharmic team.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 29 Apr 2014 22:16

munna wrote:
Muppallaji wrote:Every ally is a rogue. Tell me one who is not. CBN is a fox and unreliable from TDP. The Sena go and cross vote to INC. INLD comes and goes. Ultimately the BJP has to become a goonda on its own and that was lacking.


True that. BJP should atleast not politically assassinate its own leaders to keep allies in humour. Fine you may not play hardball with them but to snuff out careers of promising leaders to keep Daddy-Son happy? Not done!


BJP needs to cultivate its own line of influential and aggressive Jat Sikhs in sync with the Hindutva ideology. Due to lack of this, to an extent BJP has to depend on Akali support.

This can be done best when BJP+SAD is not in power in Punjab.

Secondly BJP should take over the SCs in Punjab. Moreover BJP needs an outreach to Sikhs living in UK, Canada and USA even though it seems they would be difficult to crack!

Best to let go of Punjab between 2017 and 2024.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SaraLax » 29 Apr 2014 22:25

muraliravi wrote:After losing his contract with india tv, timesnow and headlines today, I can safely say that yashwant deshmukh has also lost his mind.

What ridiculous piece of psephology is this, he claims that in varanasi dalits will stick to bsp, yadavs will stick to SP, brahmins, bhumihars and muslims are going to vote for ajai rai, so what does he want to convey that Namo will lose deposit.

Varanasi will be a pure bipolar contest is what he says next and does not realize that in this one tweet he is contradicting all the BS he tweeted before.

My sureshot prediction, Varanasi will be a one way contest, all hindus will vote for Namo and rest will vote for congress. Namo will win by unprecedented margins.


Sir - TIFWIW , He claims that cvoter's Exit Polls will start from 6.00 PM on TimesNow TV on 12th May ........

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 29 Apr 2014 22:28

shahid siddiqui ‏@shahid_siddiqui 2h

This division of votes Will help Bjp and coming together of these two will unite the people of Varanasi behind Modi.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 29 Apr 2014 22:36

Many Trinamool leaders are accused in riots cases: BJP

http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/ma ... 28392.html
"Many TMC leaders and candidates are accused in cases of rioting in West Bengal and no action has been taken against them. There are many such leaders who are contesting on TMC tickets. Who is the butcher of Sandeshkhali? Who is the "shaitan" (devil) of Panchala, Howrah? Who is the devil of Asansol and Midnapur?," BJP spokesperson Meenakshi Lekhi said.

She said "the party has not been able to investigate the scams and such like things in the state. Who is responsible for the anarchy in West Bengal? Would TMC reply to such questions as to who is the real butcher?"

Lekhi alleged there is a situation of riots continuing in West Bengal and many riots have taken place in the state after 2002, whereas there have been none in Gujarat ever since.

She said such language is used by those people who do not have a reply to the real issues of corruption, high prices, unemployment, lack of development that are confronting the people.

"That is why they are doing misguided politics," she said, adding that when it comes to issues of malnutrition, farmers, industry, they stand nowhere," Lekhi said.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 29 Apr 2014 22:43

SaraLax wrote:
muraliravi wrote:After losing his contract with india tv, timesnow and headlines today, I can safely say that yashwant deshmukh has also lost his mind.

What ridiculous piece of psephology is this, he claims that in varanasi dalits will stick to bsp, yadavs will stick to SP, brahmins, bhumihars and muslims are going to vote for ajai rai, so what does he want to convey that Namo will lose deposit.

Varanasi will be a pure bipolar contest is what he says next and does not realize that in this one tweet he is contradicting all the BS he tweeted before.

My sureshot prediction, Varanasi will be a one way contest, all hindus will vote for Namo and rest will vote for congress. Namo will win by unprecedented margins.


Sir - TIFWIW , He claims that cvoter's Exit Polls will start from 6.00 PM on TimesNow TV on 12th May ........


oh, i guess he got that contract back. thanks for the update


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