Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

fanne
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby fanne » 01 May 2014 19:27

Ok on Niran Method (we all know 543 method, if not please read it at his web sites - In short he has chosen swing constituencies with mixed population to guage the mood. He has past election numbers for these constituencies to compare against and predict the swing. His basic premise is, if you get caste line voting %, wight them with caste population, then you can predict what is going on for whole LS seat, or more than 1 seat around that LS) - Niran Method is simple. Each polling booth has BJP (and other party polling booth age agents) who are local. Whenever someone goes in to vote, the polling officer announces name, all parties cross these names (to prevent double polling by someone, if they can get rid of ink mark) and object if the person is not person A. Usually people get their voting slip from the party they are going to vote (so you can count who is voting whom) or if they have a slip, they go directly and vote (and being local you know whwere that person is voting, I can point out at BR who the congress voters are). So I believe BJP is not only crossing the names also putting some symbol on where the votes are going. This lists then is collated at the end of the day and counted. From that you know who is winning what seat. Not a perfect method, but the best that is out there (better than exit polls). It of course has many shortcomings. So what Niran Ji is posting, is that inside info. His % ranges are interesting, I think too close to call he is giving to others and where there is clear advantage to BJP. I would take his numbers seriously unless 1)Niran ji is himself misinforming 2)He is being misinformed.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Denis » 01 May 2014 19:28

harbans wrote:What happens if BJP get 75 and INC gets 340 or something? What if? or AAP get 220. INC 180. What reactions can we expect?


Impossible! But to answer your question, I will uproot myself and shift along with my family to Gujarat. If it means a significant cut in salary and creature comforts of life, so be it.

fanne
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby fanne » 01 May 2014 19:29

Naah then probably democracy is not the way to go

member_24042
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_24042 » 01 May 2014 19:30

an important question is whether a Turd Front is preferable to the Family. I much rather see Netaji, NiKu, Behenji, Didi, and Amma rotate the PM gaddi between them, at least they are not foreigners who will put India on a platter to its enemies.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SaiK » 01 May 2014 19:31

harbans, the worst fear for you should be having is jhaduwala becoming PM and doing mobing all over desh and UNO.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby harbans » 01 May 2014 19:43

Sai Ji, with Jhaduwala things will slide downwards faster because the slope they pursue is steep. With INC it is gentle. m is lower and Mu may be higher but it's just a slight delay in the slide. Same with Maya, Netaji, Niku. We need to understand this is not fundamentally about much more than they can offer. It's about destroying a system that Nehru created that facilitated loot, destruction of original culture, distortion of history that allows other ideologies to gain foothold and dominate the natives here. With Modi the slide friction Mu is going to be high, the slope m going to be less. The reversal in slope will come later but we need to arrest the steep inclination and slope first. My take is anything can happen if the results are like INC 340. That is why it is so risky to have a EVM system without necessary backups. Just too risky. Modi needs to correct this ASAP if all goes well.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 01 May 2014 19:53

Deepak Singh ‏@smarket 3h

Ansaari support to Congress is now becoming a major issue. Wife of Krishnand Rai has come out in support of Modi now
Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 14h

How well did TDK know Abdul Gayoom of Maldives? I am chasing a money laundering case.
Dinesh Nath ‏@dinesh4aol 1h

Insider news: congress hatching plan for covert govt with yearly PM, 1 yr for mamta, 1 yr for mulayam, 1yr for jaya. @surnell @DrShobha

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krishnan » 01 May 2014 20:35

they can have a 6 month rotating PM

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Karan M » 01 May 2014 20:45

TonySoprano wrote:an important question is whether a Turd Front is preferable to the Family. I much rather see Netaji, NiKu, Behenji, Didi, and Amma rotate the PM gaddi between them, at least they are not foreigners who will put India on a platter to its enemies.


You think wrong. They are all worthless opportunists.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Karan M » 01 May 2014 20:46

krishnan wrote:they can have a 6 month rotating PM


Why not weekly? Real decisions will all be taken by the Familia anyways.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby KLP Dubey » 01 May 2014 20:47

nageshks wrote:(They all believe in wave theory, too. Guess I am just too much a particle minded creature, with a strong belief in Murphy rather than Einstein.).


Chhodo Marphi Khao Barphi
Acche Din Aane Vaale Hain

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mihaylo » 01 May 2014 20:49

Karan M wrote:
krishnan wrote:they can have a 6 month rotating PM


Why not weekly? Real decisions will all be taken by the Familia anyways.


Actually, each selected candidate should be assigned a # and a random # generator should be employed to know who will be the PM for specific decisions or meetings vaghera vaghera. Lets be creative here and give every Turd a chance.

-M

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby KLP Dubey » 01 May 2014 20:52

Mihaylo wrote:Actually, each selected candidate should be assigned a # and a random # generator should be employed to know who will be the PM for specific decisions or meetings vaghera vaghera. Lets be creative here and give every Turd a chance.

-M


Whole country can be governed by mohalla sabhas.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 01 May 2014 20:54

ANI @ANI_news · 24s
Why are you going into such details, ask KC Tyagi why he said what he said: Sharad Yadav on JDU supporting AAP


It seems Sharad Yadav and Nitish Kumar are going to go their separate ways after the elections.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mihaylo » 01 May 2014 20:58

KLP Dubey wrote:
Mihaylo wrote:Actually, each selected candidate should be assigned a # and a random # generator should be employed to know who will be the PM for specific decisions or meetings vaghera vaghera. Lets be creative here and give every Turd a chance.

-M


Whole country can be governed by mohalla sabhas.



..and when difficult decisions are to be made, we can employ the age old effective technique of chintan baithak couple with maun vrat.

-M

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby harbans » 01 May 2014 21:01

Aaptards Braintanks ( if one can call it that) seem to be converging on an Indian model based on Mohalla Sabhas and Art 370 for every state in India. Will break India in less than 5 years.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby arminius » 01 May 2014 21:14

The buzz on twitter is that BJP's plan in Bihar has gone pear-shaped. Some are talking of figure as low as 7/27 so far.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SaiK » 01 May 2014 21:24

harbans, i have a plan and perhaps modi does too. the only way to remove a system is providing a migration path. the best migration path is the gujarat model, while working on replacement model behind the scene in a systematic way that the c-system is erased under-ground is the ideal option - grass root banana attack is required.. for that we need feku gandhies instill confidence to grass roots to move away from the misguided setup to a more robust setup. while this happens, a prevention setup should be established to eradicate the virus by innoculation of good education at village levels. graduate the villages, automagically we have to deal only with one middle class for the entire country. SEAD ops is required!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shaktimaan » 01 May 2014 21:29

Arminius ji, all that Kongi uchal-kood is due to one report broadcast by NDTV. It is psy ops to influence the rest of the seats (13) in Bihar that have not yet voted. No need to dhoti shiver just yet.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 01 May 2014 21:33

Remaining Bihar seats are in Bhojpur and Mithila. Places like the Champarans, Sheohar, Buxar, etc are all BJP-JD(U) strongholds, many of them UC strongholds. The idea that they will all run and vote Laloo is ridiculous. RrNDTV's report seems cooked up, like every other opinion poll they did.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanku » 01 May 2014 21:35

nageshks wrote:Remaining Bihar seats are in Bhojpur and Mithila. Places like the Champarans, Sheohar, Buxar, etc are all BJP-JD(U) strongholds, many of them UC strongholds. The idea that they will all run and vote Laloo is ridiculous. RrNDTV's report seems cooked up, like every other opinion poll they did.


7/27 in Bihar means I will start believing in EVM magic.
:((

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_28352 » 01 May 2014 21:40

Is 7/27 for BJP and RJD/INC performing well in Bihar a media creation like Kejriwal is?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_24042 » 01 May 2014 21:42

I think the thakur Giriraj Singh ruined BJP's prospects in Bihar, that is at least what Shahid Siddiqui was tweeting.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanku » 01 May 2014 21:43

TonySoprano wrote:I think the thakur Giriraj Singh ruined BJP's prospects in Bihar, that is at least what Shahid Siddiqui was tweeting.


:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby harbans » 01 May 2014 21:45

SaiK ji, we've all been touched by the way Modi has gone on hundreds of rallies, 1000's of 3D ones, Chai pe Charchas, working tirelessly 18 or more hours each day for the last few months. This is not an easy task and i have not seen anyone anywhere working with this much focus and dedication on development and governance. Important thing is all along he has been infusing people to keep the discourse on development and governance and demand that of whom they elect. This is really a huge and massive educational turnaround program lifting hundreds of millions out of looking at caste based or even Sampradaya based mindsets. That is his single biggest contribution and it is a historic one. If he infuses that spirit in a dream team that really works first on providing basics like Bijlee, pani infra and such, we will see a massive change within a year or so. People will never go back to the politics and centers of yore. Institutions will change tack. There will be little chance this dynastic poodles and bimbos that will make a comeback.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 01 May 2014 21:51

Yashwant Deshmukh ‏@cvoter 56m

So; is showing the "Low Support" for BJP in "Muslim" opinion poll in the "seats yet to poll" a new classic act of secularism. Right?
Rohit Sardana ‏@sardanarohit 1h

जमाई राजा के ज़मीन-प्रेम का 'पर्दाफ़ाश'! Daily News and Analysis, 9PM, @ZeeNews with @sudhirchaudhary .
Last edited by pankajs on 01 May 2014 22:09, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shaktimaan » 01 May 2014 21:53

One thing I can see on Twitter, the AAPtards are dancing with glee at the "news" that Lalu is doing well in Bihar at the cost of the BJP. If the AAP is so anti-corruption, how can they be glad at the rise of Lalu, who is a convicted corruption expert?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanjay » 01 May 2014 21:55

So is it game over in Bihar for us ?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby munna » 01 May 2014 21:58

Sanjay wrote:So is it game over in Bihar for us ?

Relax they are doing much better and will chug a decent haul in Bihar.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 01 May 2014 21:59

No no saar! Just another roll of dice as far as the sickular brigade is concerned in the hopes of denting Modis prospects in the remaining seats in Bihar.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SRoy » 01 May 2014 22:00

Sanjayji,

Just misinformation to influence the voters in the remaining constituencies.

If tweets are anything to go by then, there are tweets out there suggesting the opposite.

Better to go by information from the people on the ground.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanjay » 01 May 2014 22:01

To boost my morale, can we start circulating such tweets ?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby arminius » 01 May 2014 22:01

Shaktimaan wrote:One thing I can see on Twitter, the AAPtards are dancing with glee at the "news" that Lalu is doing well in Bihar at the cost of the BJP. If the AAP is so anti-corruption, how can they be glad at the rise of Lalu, who is a convicted corruption expert?

It seems EC misreported the proportion of peaceful voters in Bihar and BJP poll managers didn't care to verify. That seems to have disturbed the artimetic. But yes AAPtards are quite happy it seems, irony surely died today.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby munna » 01 May 2014 22:04

munna wrote:
Sanjay wrote:So is it game over in Bihar for us ?

Relax they are doing much better and will chug a decent haul in Bihar.

Like I said there are polls going on and people who know, know. Check out iconoclast handle on twitter.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 01 May 2014 22:08

Not until the last vote is cast.

Its all media campaign to slow Modi and nothing else.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby IndraD » 01 May 2014 22:10

I have many relatives in Bihar including my parents, they have all voted for BJP and there is strong Modi wave, RJD-Lalu comeback is a media spin started by Times House.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SRoy » 01 May 2014 22:12

I don't think EC publishes electoral rolls on basis of demography. The proportion of peaceful voters, that too in a communally sensitive state, are no secret.

If we believe the AAPturds then we have to conclude that every where in Bihar the peaceful votes consolidated with sickular votes of Lalu to ensure first past post.

On the contrary we had the spectacle of Lalu's daughter (whats her name?) smashing EVM out of frustration. Maybe out of sheer joy that her horse was ahead in the race.

When 2 or 3 phases of polling have already occurred, trends posted and circulated within next 1-2 days, doesn't it occur strange that all of sudden we are being suggested that the trends are different than what was reported first? That's fishy.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gandharva » 01 May 2014 22:13

IndraD wrote:I have many relatives in Bihar including my parents, they have all voted for BJP and there is strong Modi wave, RJD-Lalu comeback is a media spin started by Times House.


To channelize M votes to Lalu from JDU.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanjay » 01 May 2014 22:13

Relax they are doing much better and will chug a decent haul in Bihar.[/quote]
Like I said there are polls going on and people who know, know. Check out iconoclast handle on twitter.[/quote]

can't find.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 01 May 2014 22:18

Sanjay, According to PP guy Modi got 55/89 seats in the last round ie 7th phase. And helped SAD in Punjab and wiped out Lalu and Nitish in Bihar Mullahyam in UP and Sonia in Telangana leading to TRS becoming the CM without external support.

http://www.politicsparty.com/shownews.php?newsid=421

TFWIW as he is quite a partisan.


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