Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Sanjay
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanjay » 01 May 2014 23:29

muraliravi, may I ask something to see if I have this right - bosechem (with a decent record of his own) is saying despite the M+Y consolidation enabling the RJD+Cong combine to do quite well - that even now the NDA may be around 205-215 ?

And that even CSDS is still predicting around 195 NDA (or is that BJP) without Bihar/UP even after all the disasters mishaps, mispeaks, mistakes and missed opportunities ?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SRoy » 01 May 2014 23:32

Congis are already on record saying that all combinations are acceptable to them to keep Modi out.

So, NDA at 250 is a lost cause.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby R_Kumar » 01 May 2014 23:33

NDTV opinion Poll for remaining 13 seats from Bihar.
RJD+ ->7
BJP+-> 4
JDU+->2

Now 9-phase election has explanation.
http://www.ndtv.com/blog/show/watch-battleground-bihar-nitish-kumar-vs-lalu-yadav-517032?pfrom=home-lateststories

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby KLP Dubey » 01 May 2014 23:34

RajeshA wrote:
ANI @ANI_news · 24s
Why are you going into such details, ask KC Tyagi why he said what he said: Sharad Yadav on JDU supporting AAP


It seems Sharad Yadav and Nitish Kumar are going to go their separate ways after the elections.


Begging on different roads ?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 01 May 2014 23:35

Muraliravi, Need to ask you only.

What will be teh numbers for all regional satraps:

Mamata, JJ, Nitish, Mullhayam, Lalu and Commies anyother Congress mukut?

I think not more than 20 each at first cut.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mihaylo » 01 May 2014 23:40

SRoy wrote:Congis are already on record saying that all combinations are acceptable to them to keep Modi out.

So, NDA at 250 is a lost cause.


Depression is setting in. Need to visit maikhana on the way home.

-M

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby arminius » 01 May 2014 23:44

SRoy wrote:Congis are already on record saying that all combinations are acceptable to them to keep Modi out.

So, NDA at 250 is a lost cause.

Sounds reasonable. Though would be tragedy of epic proportion. Desh ka durbhagya

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby munna » 01 May 2014 23:46

arminius wrote:
SRoy wrote:Congis are already on record saying that all combinations are acceptable to them to keep Modi out.

So, NDA at 250 is a lost cause.

Sounds reasonable. Though would be tragedy of epic proportion. Desh ka durbhagya

At 250 NDA its a Modi govt. Period!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby KLP Dubey » 01 May 2014 23:47

ramana wrote:Muraliravi, Need to ask you only.

What will be teh numbers for all regional satraps:

Mamata, JJ, Nitish, Mullhayam, Lalu and Commies anyother Congress mukut?

I think not more than 20 each at first cut.


From where will these jokers bring 20 each ?? More likely:

JDU: 3-5
RJD: 3-5
SP: 10-15
BSP:5-10
BJD:12-15
AIADMK: 12-15
DMK: 10-15
NCP:3-5
Commies: 15-20
TMC: 15-20
Total all above: 88-125
Last edited by KLP Dubey on 01 May 2014 23:49, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vamsee » 01 May 2014 23:47

muraliravi,

Can I ask you a question? Are your projections based on leaked exit poll info from CSDS? or is it your own?
You can ignore this question if you want to.

Regards,
V

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanku » 01 May 2014 23:48

^^
Oh no, the above means, left, Amma, DMK, Maya, Mullah.I.am etc etc etc are all together on the same side. What are the chances of that happening ?

Seriously 250 NDA is in govt in bag. I suspect it will be more. Anyway NCP etc will happily support.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SRoy » 01 May 2014 23:49

Those that are saying 250 means Modi govt.
And who'll bring in the other 22?
At the best it will be a ABV v2.0, even if Modi manages to stay put.
Get real.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby nachiket » 01 May 2014 23:49

If NDA gets 250 I hope Jayalalitha does a 180 and supports them in return for ministerial berths. Rest of the seats can be cobbled together.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vamsee » 01 May 2014 23:50

Guys,
NDA at 250 means Modi will be PM. No question of any UPA-3. There will be around 10-15 "independents" who are available to any party. and either DMK or ADMK will take them above 272.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby nachiket » 01 May 2014 23:51

Sanku wrote:Seriously 250 NDA is in govt in bag. I suspect it will be more. Anyway NCP etc will happily support.

Why are you guys so confident about NCP? I saw muraliravi counting on their support somewhere too. And if they do support, I fully expect Uddhav Thackeray to walk out.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 01 May 2014 23:52

Sanjay wrote:muraliravi, may I ask something to see if I have this right - bosechem (with a decent record of his own) is saying despite the M+Y consolidation enabling the RJD+Cong combine to do quite well - that even now the NDA may be around 205-215 ?

And that even CSDS is still predicting around 195 NDA (or is that BJP) without Bihar/UP even after all the disasters mishaps, mispeaks, mistakes and missed opportunities ?


Sir CSDS is its march tracker gave BJP 193-212 on its own (not NDA). So some slip in Bihar by 5 seats wont change their tally much.

Coming to bosechem, i can see how he is getting his numbers. Lets look at his numbers only until phase 6 where he is saying NDA is 165-175 out of 349.

Assam +Other NE - 5
UP (33 seats until phase 6) - 26
Maharashtra - 28 (thats what he predicts and that is the exact midpoint of csds march tracker and in fact even consistent with Atri ji)
Madhya Pradesh - 26
Chhattisgarh - 9
Delhi - 6
Haryana - 5
Rajasthan - 21
Jharkhand - 10
Karnataka - 12
Andaman -1
Goa -1
JK-1
Orissa -4

Thats makes 155 without Bihar and other small ones here and there. I guess that how he gets his 165. Maybe he uses full sweeps in RJ etc.. for 175.. I am just guessing

But you and Sanku are right, I just carried away i guess seeing it from him. 165-175 until phase 6 itself looks rather high
Last edited by muraliravi on 02 May 2014 00:01, edited 1 time in total.

KLP Dubey
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby KLP Dubey » 01 May 2014 23:52

Vamsee wrote:Guys,
NDA at 250 means Modi will be PM. No question of any UPA-3. There will be around 10-15 "independents" who are available to any party. and either DMK or ADMK will take them above 272.


None of these things will likely be needed though. NDA has already got about 250 from Phases 1-7. The main question at this point is how much majority they will have based upon results of Phases 8 and 9.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 01 May 2014 23:54

SRoy wrote:Those that are saying 250 means Modi govt.
And who'll bring in the other 22?
At the best it will be a ABV v2.0, even if Modi manages to stay put.
Get real.


c'mon dude, u get real. 22 is a joke they can manage anyday, INLD, TRS, JMM, JVM, DMK, breaking smaller parties, options galore. In 6 months u will many MP's from these parties breaking away and merging with BJP. Even RJD can be broken.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 01 May 2014 23:55

ramana wrote:Muraliravi, Need to ask you only.

What will be teh numbers for all regional satraps:

Mamata, JJ, Nitish, Mullhayam, Lalu and Commies anyother Congress mukut?

I think not more than 20 each at first cut.


Thats what I also think sir, except Mamata I doubt if anyone will cross 20.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 01 May 2014 23:56

Vamsee wrote:muraliravi,

Can I ask you a question? Are your projections based on leaked exit poll info from CSDS? or is it your own?
You can ignore this question if you want to.

Regards,
V


i am no pollster sir, all my projections are basically just aggregate of information that i collect, just that i usually trust conservative pollsters with some track record.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mort Walker » 01 May 2014 23:57

muraliravi wrote:
SRoy wrote:Those that are saying 250 means Modi govt.
And who'll bring in the other 22?
At the best it will be a ABV v2.0, even if Modi manages to stay put.
Get real.


c'mon dude, u get real. 22 is a joke they can manage anyday, INLD, TRS, JMM, JVM, DMK, breaking smaller parties, options galore. In 6 months u will many MP's from these parties breaking away and merging with BJP. Even RJD can be broken.


They'll flip. The estimate in 2014 this time is 15 crore per seat. The problem is will the government be stable? My guess is no as there will be gulf and EJ monies to flip votes out. With NDA 250, the govt. will last 2-3 years.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 01 May 2014 23:59

MW,
dont forget IB and RAW will be under control of whoever is the PM. And Modi is no ABV with Low Purush backstabbing him all the time!

muraliravi thanks for the affirmation. So with each around 20 not much chance of any of them demanding to be PM the others will undercut.
So Congress plan is a non-starter.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby durvasa » 02 May 2014 00:00

SRoy wrote:Congis are already on record saying that all combinations are acceptable to them to keep Modi out.

So, NDA at 250 is a lost cause.


All combinations may be acceptable to Congress, Commies, Lalu, AAP and BSP but not to other regional satraps like BJD, AIDMK, TMC or even NCP who may prefer to be in a more stable NDA than sharing bed with their sworn enemies in bloated UPA.

Anything above 240 for Pre-poll NDA should be enough to make a govt though BJP alone getting 272+, targeted by NaMo, would be a dream come true. In any case BJP should aim to make govt, if they are the biggest party, by whatever means. Time to be nice to traitors has long gone.
Last edited by durvasa on 02 May 2014 00:03, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 02 May 2014 00:00

Mort Walker wrote:They'll flip. The estimate in 2014 this time is 15 crore per seat. The problem is will the government be stable? My guess is no as there will be gulf and EJ monies to flip votes out. With NDA 250, the govt. will last 2-3 years.


Kuch nahi hoga, they will be forced to resign and merge into BJP and fight by-elections. After that they cant resign.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 02 May 2014 00:01

While sp and bsp can and have supported congis from outside together i find it hard to imagine them being part of turd front govt with congi support.
same fr dmk and admk in same room.imagine jj as pm and stalin reporting to her in cabinet.

congis are appealing to ego and promising each warlord a six month reign as pm.
problem is all warlords will want a longer reign

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mort Walker » 02 May 2014 00:02

muraliravi wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:They'll flip. The estimate in 2014 this time is 15 crore per seat. The problem is will the government be stable? My guess is no as there will be gulf and EJ monies to flip votes out. With NDA 250, the govt. will last 2-3 years.


Kuch nahi hoga, they will be forced to resign and merge into BJP and fight by-elections. After that they cant resign.


I hope your are correct. I pray that after Phase 7 the NDA 240-250.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SRoy » 02 May 2014 00:02

Mort Walker wrote:
muraliravi wrote:c'mon dude, u get real. 22 is a joke they can manage anyday, INLD, TRS, JMM, JVM, DMK, breaking smaller parties, options galore. In 6 months u will many MP's from these parties breaking away and merging with BJP. Even RJD can be broken.


They'll flip. The estimate in 2014 this time is 15 crore per seat. The problem is will the government be stable? My guess is no as there will be gulf and EJ monies to flip votes out. With NDA 250, the govt. will last 2-3 years.

Exactly.
And once that happens NaMo and team will come out discredited, having formed a govt. solely for power when they didn't even had a mandate.

However all that is speculation. By my back of the envelope calculation, I think they already past 235-245 mark as of now and remaining 2 phases will land them around 275 or 280.
Last edited by SRoy on 02 May 2014 00:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby suryag » 02 May 2014 00:03

Mortullah ji - 15 crore is nothing, Shibu Soren himself got close to 1cr to save PVNR govt

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 02 May 2014 00:04

Dhoti shiver has reached sentient levels here. Take a break from brf folks.
come back refreshed on may7.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mort Walker » 02 May 2014 00:09

I recall when JJ pulled out of the NDA in 1999 at the onset of Kargil. It may have been in the back of the mind of ABVP, LKA, & GF not to escalate the matter and not cross the LoC under any circumstance since they were a care taker govt. Had the IA, IAF & IN crossed over, the scum would have been finished for good and even the US would have been without a 9/11. My point is a stable govt. in India is essential to international security and prosperity. A weak or perceived weak govt. will create long term consequences.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mort Walker » 02 May 2014 00:10

suryag wrote:Mortullah ji - 15 crore is nothing, Shibu Soren himself got close to 1cr to save PVNR govt


That was early to mid-1990s. Today 15 crore is probably the starting point!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby shyamoo » 02 May 2014 00:12

Singha wrote:Dhoti shiver has reached sentient levels here. Take a break from brf folks.
come back refreshed on may7.

You can ensure that by posting more frequently on your dhaaga. :D Just noticed your new entry. Was saving it for later ( as in when I'm feeling drowsy at work. Looks like now is as good a time as any :-) )

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby johneeG » 02 May 2014 00:16

A mix-n-mash is generally a non-starter because every local satrap wants to be in control and will immediately destabilize after having their fill. But, the equations are different this time. After, what they have gone through(i.e. each local satrap was threatened by NaMo wave in their fort), no satrap will want to take chances and give chance to NaMo. So, if NDA does not get ~272 on own, then I don't think other satraps would be willing to bail out NaMo for long. But, there is another issue here, if NaMo can get on to the throne somehow, then he controls the leash. That means, all those who are afraid of See Bee Eye hounds will dance to NaMo's tunes. It also means all those who are afraid of those hounds will not want NaMo to control the leash. So, very less likely that any satrap out of NDA will support NaMo.
The few that come to mind who may support NaMo are:
Amma, Dhidhi, Maya and Biju.

Amma, Dhidhi and Maya face a huge risk if they allow NaMo to settle down because he is threatening to spoil their local equations by taking away their vote banks. So, Biju maybe the only one who might not lose much by supporting NaMo.

Gajan and KCR will support anyone who controls the leash.

Anyway, I think NaMo is getting minimum 230 on own which means NDA will get 272. But, then, world is a Maayaa, anything is possible...

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 02 May 2014 00:19

This is why Harry Trueman said "God give me a one handed expert!"

Its the other hand that kills you while you wait!!!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mort Walker » 02 May 2014 00:20

We'll see all the exit polls after 12 May and I'll pay attention to the CSDS polls and 5forty3.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 02 May 2014 00:25

ramana wrote:MW,
dont forget IB and RAW will be under control of whoever is the PM. And Modi is no ABV with Low Purush backstabbing him all the time!

muraliravi thanks for the affirmation. So with each around 20 not much chance of any of them demanding to be PM the others will undercut.
So Congress plan is a non-starter.

Ramana saar is right. Once on the kursi Modi will have access to all the dirt accumulated over a period of 20-30 years in RAW/IB/CBI/CVC/IT/ED/and many such small narrow and dark corners of the government machinery. And Modi being the kind of administrator that he is. No amount of money will be able to counter this kind of treasure trove!

If BJP crosses 200 on its own rest all can be arraigned and that formation will have Modi at the center give it whatever name you like.

Added later: Saw johneeG saar post later and tend to agree with him that the problem is getting to the kursi and the dynamics involved. I am however optimistic about his chances for a couple of reasons. Whoever forms the gov in Andra and Telengana will most likely deploy their party MPs in support of the single largest party or formation. INLD will support BJP and NCP is opportunistic. Independents will most likely go along with the largest formation unless they have a large sickular base or are committed sickulars. NDA at 250 will put them across easily just based on these dynamics.

The other dynamics that will work for Modi is that if one of the regionals break for Modi the rest are screwed! Modi will not need the others and the first one to jump on the bandwagon will enjoy all the advantages of being an insider. The only thing that will prevent this is if the regionals trust each other completely not to open secret negotiations with Modi. At the first hint of a secret deal in works will prompt most to seek their own deal except for the most committed sickulars like the RJD. That is where motivated leaks via the media can play havoc with the opposition unity.
Last edited by pankajs on 02 May 2014 01:20, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby shyamoo » 02 May 2014 00:59

[Semi OT]
This thread is awesome for many reasons. Any one interested in psychology, should visit this forum.

BRF ( at least this thread ) is becoming an echo chamber. But there are differences.

The general mood can be gauged by the posts ( frequency, content and posters ). I have formed a picture in my mind of the nature, as in tendencies, of various posters.
1) Some of them are very conservative in life.
2) Some get easily discouraged.
3) Some jump to conclusions.
4) Some are stubborn.
5) Some are disingenious. :roll:
6) Some of them, quite often, pull a fast one and assume that they have fooled everyone. :mrgreen:
7) Some of them genuine and passionate beliefs regardless of whether they are right or wrong.

Note: Some are a mix of all the above.

If some of the posters were into active stock picking/investing, I could almost guess their portfolio mix. Very fascinating stuff. This is an emotionally driven thread. But folks are attempting to make intellectual arguments. Which is a good thing. People from different backgrounds, regions, levels of education, experiences in life have contributed to this thread. Makes for some great analysis in itself.

So some of us will dhothi shiver, some of us will be optimistic, some of us will be or attempt to be nonchalant about. To each, his/her own.

Just remember, for most of us, life will not change much ( I'm talking about our immediate future not our collective one in the distant future ).

For me this is the fun part. The anticipation, the thrill of the chase, if you will. I actually enjoy Friday nights more than the weekend ( generally speaking ). At this time, I'm actually happy. I do not know the future. I might end up being disappointed. But why should start worrying about it now. Why this anticipatory worry?

Just my thoughts and all that.
[/Semi OT]
Last edited by shyamoo on 02 May 2014 01:29, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby shyamoo » 02 May 2014 00:59

Duplicate post.
Last edited by shyamoo on 02 May 2014 01:20, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 02 May 2014 01:08

Murali Ravi garu,

Can you pls give your optimistic estimates for these parties?

Communist Party of India (Marxist)
Communist Party of India
Revolutionary Socialist Party
All India Forward Bloc
Bahujan Samaj Party
Biju Janata Dal
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
Janata Dal (Secular)
Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
Haryana Janhit Congress
Pattali Makkal Katchi
Samajwadi Party
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
All India Trinamool Congress
Nationalist Congress Party
Rashtriya Janata Dal
YSR Congress Party
Telangana Rashtra Samiti


thx in advance

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanjay » 02 May 2014 01:18

muraliravi, if I haven't said it before - thanks for everything you've done.


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