Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 Dec 2013 10:36

vina wrote:Ah.. A quick quiz. Which is the fastest growing startup today , founded by an IIT-ian?

Ola cabs?

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 09 Dec 2013 10:36

So far, cong-mukt Mizoram doesn't seem to be panning out. But the state doesn't seem to be in anybody's radar anyway. Oh well.

Cong 14/21 MDF 6/21 Others 1/21 BJP zero (probably as expected).

I'm out - I'll read about it later.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 09 Dec 2013 10:40

Minority sarkar

BJP's constraints:
Cannot be seen to be undermining the constitutional process
Cannot allow legitimacy to Congress through AAP route
Cannot allow AAP to get into BJP strongholds
Cannot allow AAP to dominate the discourse - SM is getting breached, even the dumb hash tagging is working to an extent.
Cannot make laws

BJP's opportunities:
Minority govt by BJP allows it to push projects keeping the option of re-election open - other way round is obviously not possible.
AAP can be confronted on choice subjects
If a mass mobilization is on the cards then the Congress can be kept in check and Chidu cannot do a Ramlila ground invasion
NaMo wave is real and Delhi is undecided that is the problem of Delhi only not that of the rest of the country. Delhi can be quarantined and new allies can be asked to take a bet now (perhaps Amma can be persuaded).

What AAP has caused is that it has shown a way of by which the corrupt of the city to gain legitimacy. In essence BJP does not face a Congress now it faces a Team B like in UP and elsewhere.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 09 Dec 2013 10:45

It is better to have a deal with the IITian start up company, and I am sure he will understand.. modi needs to sit with them, and get an aap participate in live democracy.. show as a strong kaptaan ship for anti-corruption, and lets us work this out..

show some gains in 6 months before 2014 elections.

modi-ak should talk this out.. let one of them sit in the opposite side, but make one agree on the main policies.. this will only do good for dilli.. otoh, if both shy away, people can get angry with both.. and might get dixit back if called for reelections.

don't get me wrong.. people can turn to pappu/dixit/mom ji with free aam stuffs. .. it is anyways, per niran.. mostly bihari folks who has turned aam for aap votes. it would not take a second for them to get some booze and vote for dixit back again.

bjp should not shy from forming dilli gov.. and directly seek help from aap. put it on the table!

--ps: like in two-sided markets :
bjp says good governance, discuss policies, nail out issues, by aap
aap says no corruption, check my activities, open policy, full transparency by bjp

sum · Post by **sum** » 09 Dec 2013 11:10

Cant believe this is a Aakar Patel article:
Modi to middle class: 10 things to learn from state polls

First, a surge of voting, as high as 5% more than the average, indicates a positive vote and an enthusiasm for
democratic solutions rather than a despondency and an anger.

In states that the Congress ruled - Delhi and Rajasthan - it has been brushed aside. In states the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) governed - Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh - the Congress has been clobbered again in the big one and in the other it remains on the losing side despite a decade long anti-incumbency. But this is not a rejection so much as an affirmation. There is a wave rising in favour of the BJP.

Second, the evidence shows that in many two-party states, the Congress is slipping into a permanent opposition.

In Gujarat, the party consistently gets 40% of the vote but still hasn't won an election, whether Lok Sabha or assembly, in three decades. It last won a majority there in 1985 during Rajiv Gandhi's sweep.

In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, a similar model is now visible. A combination of the right caste alliances and competent governance in both states has kept the BJP in the saddle for 15 years. If the party abstains from infighting again in Rajasthan, it could shut the Congress out from that crucial state also. The indications are that the BJP is replacing the Congress as the establishment party of India. { Same was said on BRF some eons back}

Third, we must applaud and appreciate the remarkable and unprecedented rise of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi. This is the first time in north India that a party has been successful in gathering a non-caste vote. It is issues that have drawn the Delhi voter to the AAP.

This shows the size and power of the urban middle-class (an inclusive term that we must take to mean all those who are not the abject poor). This is a phenomenon, a new departure in our politics. It must be welcomed and studied in detail.

Fourth, this non-caste vote, on the evidence of this election, is lost to the Congress and is going either to the AAP or the BJP. This means that the expansion of India's urban middle class base, and it is a rapid expansion, actually goes against the Congress.

Fifth, the media's ability to influence politics is demonstrated through the AAP's success. Television and the Internet can legitimately claim to have helped create a formidable political force through concentrated focus on issues.

Sixth, 'None Of The Above' is not a serious option. This recent, Supreme Court-enforced innovation gives voters the right to reject all candidates. The meagre numbers who chose it reinforce the fact that this was a positive vote. There is little dissatisfaction with electoral politics or with politicians in the voters.

Seventh, the opinion polling has been spot on. Many pollsters have even squeezed out the right prediction in tight states like Chhattisgarh. This is amazing given how diverse the electorate in India is and how news budgets limit sample sizes. Most of these predictions have been made by polling a sample of only 2,000 or so people. This is world class psephology.

Eighth, Narendra Modi is dictating the terms of the debate. His sweeping campaign through the four states has been a command performance. He has cleared this semi-final brilliantly and is now the man to beat. He is the main issue of the next election so far as the news goes. The Congress is unable to effectively push through its message in the media. The Bills on which it hopes to retain power, for instance, food security, don't have traction in states where they should have been vote-winners.

Ninth, Rahul Gandhi's effort at rejuvenating the party by nourishing the Congress grassroots and making the district units more professional hasn't much to show by way of results. His style, which is realist and distant, has little appeal. His refusal or inability to deploy his charisma is hurting his party and his soldiers will be in despair when they size their general up against the BJP's dynamo.

Tenth, the BJP cadre will now be enthused, fired up and ready for the sprint to come. The minor squabbling in the party and positioning for leadership has come to an absolute end. This is now the party of Narendra Modi as much as it was in the past that of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and LK Advani and perhaps even more so.

The Congress won in Rajasthan and swept Delhi last time. It will not do so in six months' time. In other states its position is not good either. It got 31 MPs from Andhra Pradesh, and will not repeat that performance or come anywhere close to it given the epic mess it has made of the Telangana issue. The end seems nigh.
- See more at: http://www.hindustantimes.com/comment/a ... M7rUD.dpuf

The three Gandhis, mother, heir, and daughter, will be receiving the fawning whispers of sycophants trying to convince them, like the later Mughals sitting in the midst of a signal disaster, that this thrashing isn't really their defeat.

And the contender, alone in his spare Gandhinagar office and without need for family or of advisers, is coldly moving around his pieces, of which four have fallen into place.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 09 Dec 2013 11:13

Outcome of polls shows anger against UPA: Sharad Pawar - Firstpost

"In this context the example of Indira Gandhi can be given. She used to implement decisions with vigour," he said. "That is why, during her tenure, this "jhola" class (people with NGO background) which offers free advise, were not there."

The "jholawalla gang" is putting forth new unrealistic ideas, which are having an impact on media and some people in the Government, Pawar said, without elaborating.

Ouch, first attack on Dienasty (Sonia and its NAC) by a pawarful Subedar.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 09 Dec 2013 11:17

kmkraoind wrote: Ouch, first attack on Dienasty (Sonia and its NAC) by a pawarful Subedar.

Yeah, he's one to talk. Dienasty was the reason Pawar left the congress in the first place. But instead of standing up against them, he promptly joined up with them because the temptation of ruling and looting MH in perpetuation was too much to resist.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 09 Dec 2013 11:21

Is he attacking NAC by that jhola remark?

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 09 Dec 2013 11:21

kmkraoind wrote:Outcome of polls shows anger against UPA: Sharad Pawar - Firstpost

"In this context the example of Indira Gandhi can be given. She used to implement decisions with vigour," he said. "That is why, during her tenure, this "jhola" class (people with NGO background) which offers free advise, were not there."

The "jholawalla gang" is putting forth new unrealistic ideas, which are having an impact on media and some people in the Government, Pawar said, without elaborating.
Ouch, first attack on Dienasty (Sonia and its NAC) by a pawarful Subedar.

Was this an attack on Kejriwalas? .. or on the lefties ?
I know the two aren't really disjoint but even then ... need some clarity here.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 09 Dec 2013 11:23

Shutting CON out of Maharashtra will be the real test. If NaMo can do it, say 10 years down the line, then he would have changed the political landscape of the country for a very long time to come. JMT.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 09 Dec 2013 11:25

Dilbu wrote:Shutting CON out of Maharashtra will be the real test. If NaMo can do it, say 10 years down the line, then he would have changed the political landscape of the country for a very long time to come. JMT.

That is not really in Modi's hands. Raj and Uddhav Thackeray have to first join up for it to have even a slight chance of happening. RT doesn't seem to be game for that.

MH is a gone case anyway for the 2014 elections. BJP should concentrate more on getting their house in order in Karnataka before the LS polls.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 09 Dec 2013 11:26

Virendra wrote:Was this an attack on Kejriwalas? .. or on the lefties ?
I know the two aren't really disjoint but even then ... need some clarity here.

I think it is an attack on NAC loonies kept as advisors by Ma-Beta combine. Pawar is saying IG did not need advice from Jhola types to do what she did. He has realised, wisely so, that MNREGA, FSB and other pet 'socialism' projects imagined up by NAC brigade is not going to help UPA in the coming elections.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 09 Dec 2013 11:27

nachiket wrote:
Dilbu wrote:Shutting CON out of Maharashtra will be the real test. If NaMo can do it, say 10 years down the line, then he would have changed the political landscape of the country for a very long time to come. JMT.
That is not really in Modi's hands. Raj and Uddhav Thackeray have to first join up for it to have even a slight chance of happening. RT doesn't seem to be game for that.

Then he should find a way around this. That is the challenge. Hainji?

vina · Post by **vina** » 09 Dec 2013 11:58

Dilbu wrote:Is he attacking NAC by that jhola remark?

Yup. The NAC-MadamJi Kitchen cabinet and Yuvraj's penchant for Jholawala led "entitlement" legislation as the be all and end all.

That was what brought the Congress to it's knees. The Congress fundamentally misread teh 2004 and 2009 verdicts. They were on the back of a record 3 year drought in Andhra which wiped on Chandrababu (and that was the reason why Vajpayee lost 2nd term, the rest of the NDA delivered), the 2nd term in 2009 was due to record high growth and low inflation putting real money and prosperity in the hands of the people. Yuvraj and Jhloawalas (the usual lying scoundrel scum) self servingly twisted that as "Against India Shining" and "Victory for MNREGA /Dole/Welfare rubbish" and doubled down on that. The net result of that is run away inflation , a battered currency , loss of real income and of course stalled investment cycle and loss /no growth of jobs.

The Jholawalas got hoisted in their own petard. No one had the guts to take on those NAC ding dongs until now. But now the vase has broken on the floor and shattered into a hundred pieces and Pawar said the obvious. Congress getting back Chidambaram and trying to turn things around is too little , too late. The damage was done by that perennial failure Pranab Mukherjee, who was amply rewarded for his history of miserable failures as finance minister by being made the President.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 09 Dec 2013 12:04

^^Err, you need to make up your mind. Was it a failure of Yuvraaj and SG's NAC darlings or Pranab Mukherjee? What makes you think PM wasn't following SG and NAC's diktats?

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 09 Dec 2013 12:05

Pawar perhaps nursed the ambition of staying close to the Chair as number 2 .. and the Jholawalas shut him out.
I think there was an article once, talking about petty squabbles on who will sit where (read how close to numero uno seat) in I don't remember, was it Cabinet Meeting or NAC ??

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 09 Dec 2013 12:06

I think Yuvaraj never had anything to lose for Congress. It was a lost battle to begin with.
He just failed to do damage control and repair, thats it.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 09 Dec 2013 12:09

Virendra wrote:Pawar perhaps nursed the ambition of staying close to the Chair as number 2 .. and the Jholawalas shut him out.
I think there was an article once, talking about petty squabbles on who will sit where (read how close to numero uno seat) in I don't remember, was it Cabinet Meeting or NAC ??

Pawar wanted to the Congress' PM candidate, nothing less, in the 90's after PVNR. He and Sangma opposed SG because she wasn't born in India. After that, he was never going to get anywhere close to No. 2 in a Congress govt.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 Dec 2013 12:12

nachiket wrote:^^Err, you need to make up your mind. Was it a failure of Yuvraaj and SG's NAC darlings or Pranab Mukherjee? What makes you think PM wasn't following SG and NAC's diktats?

thats always been my problem with understanding Vina's posts. first he will thrash the lefties/NAC left n right. then a couple swipes at pranabda or PC. all without getting to who put them there by diktat and who controls their policy and decision in the first place. MMS cannot sign off on any major issue on his own and often had decisions thrust on him with the blessings of the NAC cabal. didnt he atleast want to setup big mines, coastal power plants, steel plants to change the heavy industry landscape. a collection of chinese backed / EJ backed / naxal backed interests have blocked most such projects and american deep state actors with EJ/green cats paws are now attacking our meager uranium mining and gas centrifuge sector.

when you have a bee attack problem, can you track and control all the bees?

get the queen bee to shift her hive and the rest of bees will either migrate away with her, wither and drop like flies or evolve into better behaved bees.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 09 Dec 2013 12:13

Pawar got it right with NAC's policies but I see his accusation as crying over spilt milk onlee as there was no other idea coming forth within CON camp. Situation and social structure in India have changed a lot since IG's time. IG was living off Nehru's charm and there was TINA wave in favour of CON in those decades. You will fall flatter than how RG has fallen now if you try those antics in this decade. People are seeing good governance making a difference in the lives of people else where in the country and they want equal opportunity and not dole handed out to them. The blame should fairly and squarely be placed at SG & Rg's feet.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 09 Dec 2013 12:14

Virendra wrote:I think Yuvaraj never had anything to lose for Congress. It was a lost battle to begin with.
He just failed to do damage control and repair, thats it.

rajmata has done the damage listening to the rabid jholawala loonies in the NAC

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 09 Dec 2013 12:14

nachiket wrote:
Dilbu wrote:Shutting CON out of Maharashtra will be the real test. If NaMo can do it, say 10 years down the line, then he would have changed the political landscape of the country for a very long time to come. JMT.
That is not really in Modi's hands. Raj and Uddhav Thackeray have to first join up for it to have even a slight chance of happening. RT doesn't seem to be game for that.

MH is a gone case anyway for the 2014 elections. BJP should concentrate more on getting their house in order in Karnataka before the LS polls.

What makes u say this, every poll gives bjp ss and rpi 30+ seats without mns. 31-32 out of 48 without any tie with mns is pretty good rite?

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 09 Dec 2013 12:15

SG tried to be IG and failed. Bahu kabhi beti nahi hoti or some such nonsense from TV serials are apt for this situation.

vina · Post by **vina** » 09 Dec 2013 12:20

nachiket wrote:^^Err, you need to make up your mind. Was it a failure of Yuvraaj and SG's NAC darlings or Pranab Mukherjee? What makes you think PM wasn't following SG and NAC's diktats?

NAC ding dongs are big picture guys who would have given Mukherjee a direction. That Prabab Mukherjee messed it up and made a dogs meal out of it by harking back to some make believe world kind of budget and a throw back to a command and control world is of his own making. He is from that era, his instincts and ideology and history are all from that , having lived and breathed that all his life. He is the classic old die hard Indira Gandhi groupie who did that "lurch to the left" and the attendant disastrous consequences in the 70s until 1992.

Now that the Kangress has decided "Kommunikashun" has been what let them down, I guess we will see a whole new series of cheesy ads like the one we were treated to about 3 to 4 months ago about a guy in a train extolling the virtues of Kangress programs (MNREGA, bank nationalization etc, etc,) being pumped out with the amps turned to full volume. Will be vomit inducing I assure you.

Unless the Kangress gets it's head out of it's a*se , kicks out the JNU and Jholawala ding dongs and gets some intellectual clarity and sense of purpose on what it is going to take to move this country forward and jettisons the socialist welfare doling out rubbish, it is a goner for sure and will be road kill after getting steam rolled in the 2014 elections, which of course I think will be a pity.

saumitra_j · Post by **saumitra_j** » 09 Dec 2013 12:23

vina wrote:Unless the Kangress gets it's head out of it's a*se , kicks out the JNU and Jholawala ding dongs and gets some intellectual clarity and sense of purpose on what it is going to take to move this country forward and jettisons the socialist welfare doling out rubbish, it is a goner for sure and will be road kill after getting steam rolled in the 2014 elections, which of course I think will be a pity.

If they do that, they will have to get rid of the DIEnasty and its associated slime.....and then they become the same as BJP

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 09 Dec 2013 12:24

nachiket wrote:
Dilbu wrote:Shutting CON out of Maharashtra will be the real test. If NaMo can do it, say 10 years down the line, then he would have changed the political landscape of the country for a very long time to come. JMT.
That is not really in Modi's hands. Raj and Uddhav Thackeray have to first join up for it to have even a slight chance of happening. RT doesn't seem to be game for that.

MH is a gone case anyway for the 2014 elections. BJP should concentrate more on getting their house in order in Karnataka before the LS polls.

What if Rashtravadis join BJP-SS?

niran · Post by **niran** » 09 Dec 2013 12:27

who they gonna ask for support, advice wagera if they kick out jollawallas
given that onree jhollawallas advice frau and herr clown prince orders and the rest
just gubo to those command.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 Dec 2013 12:32

Gandhi Mukt Congress - GMC - would be a viable entity in theory, but what is the glue or ideology that would keep pawarful satraps together ? without a T-Rex at the top of food chain to bite a few smaller dinos in half, they are like a colony of raptors...all bite and conflicting over any form of meat.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 09 Dec 2013 12:32

Like how communists got kicked out everywhere people had a chance to do it, same will happen to these 'socialists' also. Slowly but surely. If CON continues to hold onto its outdated socialist ideas then it will die too. The rise of BJP with center right policies with efficient implementation should put this process in afterburner.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 09 Dec 2013 12:34

dilbu, unfortunately they have been replaced in the capital with naxals in mufti.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 09 Dec 2013 12:37

matrimc wrote:
disha wrote: What will happen if one puts RaGa and Tejpal in the same cell! Imagine the next generation of dynasty? What kind of english they will speak and what kind of intelligence they will show!!
On what charge would one put Rahul Gandhi in a cell? Losing Cong(I) the elections?

Well, Sukanya Devi also deserves justice just like the victim of Tejpal.

nageshks wrote:
ramana wrote:Can we map where AAP won? And what does that mean?
Also what was the margin where BJP won?
Looks like in the 4 states it truly was a two party contest.

In one post I had said after the Looters Dilli needs some Lefties to rule them!
Here is the map of the constituencies, Ramana-ji. You can see that the AAP has mostly swept in the inner city. I will toss together my awk script to see what the current votes mean for the coming elections in 2014.

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/constituencies/delhi

Saars,
its a simple case of kongi and leftist supporters unwilling to go with BJP, so they are trying out AAP. AAP managed to pull in some neutral and BJP supporters also because its a new party with a radical message. With time, it will stabilize, and BJP will be able win back the anti-kongi ones. The fight will be between kongis and AAP for the same political space. (Ravig saar said it perfectly... people take time to move from kongis to BJP.)

I think BJP may be doing the right thing by not giving the opportunity to AAP to continue with its anti-kongi space. Instead, they will force the AAP to take over the kongi space and give up the anti-kongi space to BJP.

suryag wrote:meri thos ga*** pha* gayi on seeing CG go congies way. The last thing that we wanted after losing AP to EJs was losing CG to them. I dont think Raman Singh has done anything to reverse the EJing trend in CG but atleast hasnt let it go unabated or provided state support(like in the case of AP)

Saar,
the trends in AP are also getting better. Infact, I'd say that AP is ready for Hindhuthva. BJP is doing a big mistake by participating in this state division thing(which is anyway kongi project). I think BJP should go with united-state stance along with NaMo, development and Hindhuthva. This will allow BJP to gain space in AP. United-state stance will give it space in coastal and seema regions while Hindhuthva will give it space in T region. I have been saying this for long.

Frankly, BJP was headed for a defeat in dilli also if it had not changed course and appointed Harshvardhan. Similarly dynamic and hands on approach is needed to gain entrance into AP also. I think KT could also have been salvaged if NaMo were to be declared as PM earlier and better management of the yeddy situation. Frankly, the failure to get majority in dilli is squarely the result of mismanagement by the D4. And this is just a symptom. This has been going on from atleast 2009. Even the defeat of KT or Uttarakhand can be blamed on D4.

Even Vangal is ready for some Hindhuthva. Even Kerala. There are signs. But, there is need for some overt Hindhuthva posturing, atleast in these areas where BJP is not strong. Without overt Hindhuthva stance, BJP cannot grow in new areas. This simple truth, BJP is unable to understand. Even TsuNaMo is unable to come to its full realization because BJP organization is absent in many areas to take full advantage of the popularity of Modi. The big danger is that what happens once Modi's popularity wanes?

Right now, NaMo is looking at 200+ and kongis are staring at <80. This means the end of kongis. Truly kongi mukth...

----
BTW, I think some of us have been saying this for long time(in this very thread) that there is a severe anti-kongi wave in dhesh. The question is can NaMo capitalize on it. Now, the answer to that question is that NaMo can capitalize on it if there is an associated strong organization in place. If the organization is not strong or is not seen as distinct from the kongis, then the others will capitalize on it.

vina · Post by **vina** » 09 Dec 2013 12:41

JD-U won in Delhi ! I wonder which constituency has such a large concentration of Biharis there for JDU to make a mark in such dismal circumstance. Did the Congress contest that or did they transfer votes to JDU for that seat ? I think Nitish could be in trouble if the Congress support base defects en masse to the BJP (I guess it would be the remnant upper caste and SC vote in Bihar) and Lalu splits the OBC and Muslim votes against the Nitish/Congress alliance.

In any case, I think if BJP takes a big chunk out of Bihar and UP it will be within striking distance of power to roll in Amma & maybe Naidu if he picks up a few seats BJD after the elections. Keep Didi out. She is too much of a nuisance to be any good. UPA II got derailed and paralyzed because of her.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 09 Dec 2013 12:42

Rahul M wrote:dilbu, unfortunately they have been replaced in the capital with naxals in mufti.

MahulR they have promised paradise with houris to the people without realising how impractical their solutions are. It is mango abdul's anger against CON looting that gave them a win this time. People just wanted change and loony ideas like Lokjanpal is not what made them vote for AAP. In any case AAP will never be another CON with 60+ years of loot and gandhi name to hoodwink people. AAP can be taken care of.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 Dec 2013 12:43

vina wrote:Unless the Kangress gets it's head out of it's a*se , kicks out the JNU and Jholawala ding dongs and gets some intellectual clarity and sense of purpose on what it is going to take to move this country forward and jettisons the socialist welfare doling out rubbish, it is a goner for sure and will be road kill after getting steam rolled in the 2014 elections, which of course I think will be a pity.

How many terms of the Congress party's rule does it take to confirm that such a system IS what the Congress party is about ? The Congress is a center-left party that believes in a top down command-based rule, both politically and economically. They do not espouse a truly federalist system where the states have high level authority over anything that's not explicitly in the hands of the center. Their role in liberalisation was a classic TINA situation.

This 'Cong needs to stop doing XYZ and aal iz well' is classic obfuscation. Their record shows that every Congress administrations attempts to ensure they have a strong central authority controling the political and purse strings. The NAC system is not a mistake on their part - it's very much a reflection of their worldview. Attempting to repudiate that after nearly ~10 years of obvious failure of their ideas is enough proof that it's not some temporary failed tactic.

The only anomaly in their long-term unitary-minded record was the pathbreaking single-term PVNR regime. One of the first acts of UPA-1 was shutting down the disinvestment ministry. There's no point in blaming that on quid pro quo towards the CPIx parties - the Congress acted, and they'll be judged for their actions, not their excuses.

Any future Congress administration will also have some form of extra-constitutional authority, or an attempt to rollback the extent of divestment of the government's role in economic activity by any previous center-right regime, or both.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 09 Dec 2013 12:52

Pawar's comment has to do with his desire to get the CON-NCP seat shearing changed to his advantage in MH (State and General election).

Assembly poll results: NCP now eyes equal seat share in Maharashtra

The Congress' defeat in the Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi has emboldened the NCP to revert to the 2009 theme of equal partnership in Maharashtra. An informal meeting of the NCP top leadership Sunday ended with an unwritten resolution that the results signalled massive public anger against the Congress and hence there was no reason for the alliance partner to go on the back foot in Maharashtra.

A senior cabinet minister told The Indian Express: "Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan and MPCC chief Manikrao Thakre will have to set aside their high-handed agenda of according secondary treatment to NCP. Now, we can begin the seat-sharing talks asking 50% of the 48 Lok Sabha seats for 2014 elections."

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 09 Dec 2013 12:55

I am looking at the vote shares in the present elections in Delhi. The vote shares of Congress, BJP, AAP, and BSP are 25.43, 34.01, 29.75 and 5.29 respectively (Note - I have not included the NOTA in my calculations. Also, any invalid votes that may have been cast are not listed in my database, so I would not have counted them. But my computations should be more or less accurate).

This is a sea change from what it was last time. In 2008, the vote shares of Congress, BJP and the BSP were 40.31, 36.85 and 14.05 respectively. In other words, most of the vote share of AAP has come, this time, from the BSP (which lost roughly 9% of the total vote to the AAP, and the Congress, which lost roughly 15% of the total vote to the AAP. In contrast, the BJP has lost less than 3% the total vote to the AAP.

The figures are not directly comparable, of course. This time, many more people voted, which would really change the composition of the vote. But it is still remarkable, that the BJP has more or less preserved its vote, thanks to NaMo and Harshvardhan.

All this is not to minimise the effect of the AAP. The AAP is a serious political challenge to the BJP. But most of its vote seems to be coming from the Congress and the BSP. In other words, its policies are attracting the Congress and BSP voters, far more than any BJP voters. I would welcome any analyses of the present voting pattern.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 09 Dec 2013 12:58

Suraj wrote:
vina wrote:Unless the Kangress gets it's head out of it's a*se , kicks out the JNU and Jholawala ding dongs and gets some intellectual clarity and sense of purpose on what it is going to take to move this country forward and jettisons the socialist welfare doling out rubbish, it is a goner for sure and will be road kill after getting steam rolled in the 2014 elections, which of course I think will be a pity.
How many terms of the Congress party's rule does it take to confirm that such a system IS what the Congress party is about ? The Congress is a center-left party that believes in a top down command-based rule, both politically and economically. They do not espouse a truly federalist system where the states have high level authority over anything that's not explicitly in the hands of the center. Their role in liberalisation was a classic TINA situation.

This 'Cong needs to stop doing XYZ and aal iz well' is classic obfuscation. Their record shows that every Congress administrations attempts to ensure they have a strong central authority controling the political and purse strings. The NAC system is not a mistake on their part - it's very much a reflection of their worldview. Attempting to repudiate that after nearly ~10 years of obvious failure of their ideas is enough proof that it's not some temporary failed tactic.

The only anomaly in their long-term unitary-minded record was the pathbreaking single-term PVNR regime. One of the first acts of UPA-1 was shutting down the disinvestment ministry. There's no point in blaming that on quid pro quo towards the CPIx parties - the Congress acted, and they'll be judged for their actions, not their excuses.

Any future Congress administration will also have some form of extra-constitutional authority, or an attempt to rollback the extent of divestment of the government's role in economic activity by any previous center-right regime, or both.

+108 saar. This just seems like a way for the dynasty supporters to convince themselves that kongis will be alright if only they could do so and so. The fact of the matter is the present dynasty just following what the earlier ones did. Its just that people today are more aware due to the internet and also have the options due to rise of other political parties. Nothing more nothing less. Dynasty has always been bad news for the dhesh. And it is laughable to try to shift the blame on to Pranab or MMS while keeping mum on the dynasty itself.

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NCP(or whoever) would be fools to ally with kongis after looking at the anti-kongi wave.

Adrija · Post by **Adrija** » 09 Dec 2013 12:58

^^^

Suraj, well put. As I think has already bene said here many times before (including by me)- the dynasty's world view is Anti-growth, and dole-based..........they believe in keeping India, and Indians, poor and handout dependent. That is the only way they stay in power....and that is how they survived in power till 1991

And as GD mentioned, congress without dynasty does not exist.........asking the Congress to shift away from doles to growth is impossible without removing the dynasty, and Congress without dynasty is a non-entity (except for only someone as shrewd and intelligent as PVNR)

Luckily for India, the PVNR and NDA regimes stayed long enough to kindle the growth aspirations, and hope, amongst Indians. These people voted the Congress back in 2009 as they mistakenly thought that the high growth and jobs of the 2004-2009 period was the result of MMS, without realizing that this was simply a delayed outcome of the NDA regime

Now the chickens are coming home to roost, and the full force and impact of the Congress' worldview is stark and apparent, hence the anger..it is for the BJP to now ride this to come back to power (not easy, as Delhi has shown). But it should do so and then and truly banish the congress for once and all......the continued existence of the Congress is a threat to the nation..........Congress Mukt Bharat needs to be genuinely taken up as a war cry if this nation has to survive and prosper

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 09 Dec 2013 12:59

vina wrote:JD-U won in Delhi ! I wonder which constituency has such a large concentration of Biharis there for JDU to make a mark in such dismal circumstance. Did the Congress contest that or did they transfer votes to JDU for that seat ? I think Nitish could be in trouble if the Congress support base defects en masse to the BJP (I guess it would be the remnant upper caste and SC vote in Bihar) and Lalu splits the OBC and Muslim votes against the Nitish/Congress alliance.

JD(U) won Matia Mahal, a totally Muslim dominated constituency (not sure if it is Bihari Muslims, though - I would be surprised if it were. The constituency is part of Old Delhi). The candidate was what counted there, not the JD(U) tag. The tag was just incidental.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 09 Dec 2013 13:05

nageshks wrote:I am looking at the vote shares in the present elections in Delhi. The vote shares of Congress, BJP, AAP, and BSP are 25.43, 34.01, 29.75 and 5.29 respectively (Note - I have not included the NOTA in my calculations. Also, any invalid votes that may have been cast are not listed in my database, so I would not have counted them. But my computations should be more or less accurate).

This is a sea change from what it was last time. In 2008, the vote shares of Congress, BJP and the BSP were 40.31, 36.85 and 14.05 respectively. In other words, most of the vote share of AAP has come, this time, from the BSP (which lost roughly 9% of the total vote to the AAP, and the Congress, which lost roughly 15% of the total vote to the AAP. In contrast, the BJP has lost less than 3% the total vote to the AAP.

The figures are not directly comparable, of course. This time, many more people voted, which would really change the composition of the vote. But it is still remarkable, that the BJP has more or less preserved its vote, thanks to NaMo and Harshvardhan.

All this is not to minimise the effect of the AAP. The AAP is a serious political challenge to the BJP. But most of its vote seems to be coming from the Congress and the BSP. In other words, its policies are attracting the Congress and BSP voters, far more than any BJP voters. I would welcome any analyses of the present voting pattern.

More likely there is an (invisible) push happening with the pull visible on the surface towards sAAP.

Votebanks stay solid because of certain "solid" reasons. They cannot disappear overnight (just based on some corruption issue raised by a neophyte). This can only mean that Dienasty has chosen to drive its corralled sheep into the newly built sAAP pen.

And it happened as ujjual in the middle of the night.