Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 04 Dec 2013 15:13

^ Saar, voting closes at 6 (or is it 7?)

Is it realistic to expect a 50%+ jump (from its current 42% level) in less than 50% of the time it took to get to 42%??

I'm majorly worried about dilli now... Cong can easily get away with diverting votes to AAP. Yet again the vote katua trick has worked for the cong...

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 04 Dec 2013 15:14

it can , if people vote

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Dec 2013 15:16

svenkat wrote:When one reads Virendrajis post on rajasthan elections,it is clear the jat-rajput-gujar-meena conflicts are corrosive,moraly degrading to Hindu society.We cant stop electoral mobilisation.But we can end reservation and muslim role in electoral arithmetic.

Require 50%+1 votes for election of candidate. Then all this Jat, Yadav, Dalit politics along with Muslim vote banks would come to an end.

Any Jātivadi politicians would tend to repel ⅔ of the electorate even after securing Muslim backing.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 04 Dec 2013 15:17

5 pm AFAIK.
Offices in Noida, Gurgaon are open. Many people who commute to these places from their homes in Dilli couldn't vote

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 04 Dec 2013 15:27

15:42 LIVE! Delhi polls: 48% turnout till 3 pm, EC expects it to rise to 70%: At 3 pm, the voter turnout in Delhi has touched 48 per cent. The EC says it is happy with the turnout and expects it to touch 70 per cent by the end of the day.

This, despite people in many polling booths in Tuglaqabad, Karol Bagh, Trilokpuri and Badarpur said they had to wait for a long time to cast their votes as electronic voting machines were not working.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 04 Dec 2013 15:48

jamwal wrote:5 pm AFAIK.
Offices in Noida, Gurgaon are open. Many people who commute to these places from their homes in Dilli couldn't vote

Exactly !!
Offices falling in UP, Haryana areas of NCR (Gurgaon,Noida,Faridabad) didn't declare a day off - EC has been caught with its pants down with this eff up.
With the kind of sinuous transport network in place due to ever expanding metro, every registered office in NCR should have been closed down for the poll day .

Monumental eff up . Opposition should force EC to stretch the rules by allowing polling till 9-10 pm in night , with the batallions and batallions of security setup always in place in dilli this can be done in a jiffy if EC wants to.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 04 Dec 2013 15:54

we are looking at around 55-60% vote, unless people turn up in large nos at closing

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 04 Dec 2013 16:02

Farziwal's minions on FB and other social media are already whining, "if it was over 75% then Farzi would be C M of India itself"

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 04 Dec 2013 16:07

AAP is indeed punching much above its weight. Lots of young middle class youth making noise on social media. Idiots.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 04 Dec 2013 16:09

Dilli is rape capital but sheilaben seems to think it is the rap capital only...

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 04 Dec 2013 16:13

, looks more like a pissed of SD

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 04 Dec 2013 16:16

Chandragupta wrote:. Idiots.

Idiots is right.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 04 Dec 2013 16:31

Looks to me like BJP might not make it in Delhi with such low turnout and AAP appearing to give a better performance than expected. Congress will try anything to not let BJP win here. I think it might turn out to be AAP + Congress in Delhi despite what Kejriwal might say now.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Dec 2013 16:40

Kejriwal would this time not make a coalition with Congress. In LS 2014 he has to show that he isn't Congress B Team.

If BJP cannot form a govt in Delhi now, all of the air waves would be devoted solely to Arvind Kejriwal and the "groundswell" of support he received and Modi would be out with almost a news blackout.

For Kejriwal it is important to show his foreign backers that he can pull off a miracle and stop Modi. If he shows a little bit of that magic, he can be assured of funding for him: for his party and the media blitz for LS 2014.

Even second place for Kejriwal is extremely undesirable in terms of seats.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 04 Dec 2013 16:51

Unless there is wave in AAP's favor, which I think is not there (only in 1982 was there was in AP for NTR), this is no wave for AAP.

Very few parties get a good no of seats on their first attempt unless it is a movement like happened to Janta Dal in the 90s or with NTR.

archan · Post by **archan** » 04 Dec 2013 16:54

Would the booths have closed by now? It's about 5:30PM.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Dec 2013 16:56

Exit polling in Delhi

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd and Albatrossinflight ‏@albatrossinfo predicting it for BJP. Giving BJP 34 and 33 seats respectively. AAP in second position.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 04 Dec 2013 16:59

That is still short of a majority.

Poll percentage overall is 62%. Not very good. If Delhi does not give a verdict for the BJP then 2014 is going to be very, very tough indeed.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:07

Times Now : Voting trend up to 1 PM
BJP: 29
AAP: 21
CON: 16

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:08

CNN IBN: 66% turnout

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:09

Turnout may increase

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:11

Late surge in favour of BJP will push its number up

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:13

Times Now: Final numbers for Delhi in 30 mins

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:14

Times now seems to suggest in the other 3 state surge increased the vote count of both CON and BJP

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:21

Times Now: Delhi @ 3 PM
AC Nielson:
BJP : 32
AAP: 18
CON: 18

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:21

1st Times Now numbers was from CVoter

archan · Post by **archan** » 04 Dec 2013 17:22

Wonder how do they make these guesses. Anyone know?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:23

Times Now>> Chattisgarh photo finish

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:25

Times Now >> Chittasgarh (Avg. of 2 exit polls)
BJP: 43
CON : 40

within margin of error of 7

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 04 Dec 2013 17:28

Those who don't bother to vote are generally high on morale and low on intelligence type, just like AAP supporters. To get people out of their house to vote requires good manpower which AAP doesn't have. So lower than expected turnout will definitely hurt AAP. Very few of those who are busy twitting in favor of AAP belong to delhi. Breaking an opposition's stronghold while protecting one's own is not easy even for BJP. AAP doesn't even have any stronghold of its own let alone breaking congress's. AAP will come third. The best they can do is to cut BJP votes.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:30

Times Now disclaimer: Exit polls conducted at polling booths near highways only. For safety reasons the pollster did not venture into the interiors.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:37

Delhi >> People still in queue > Polls may be extended till 6:30 pm > Up to 1 lakhs people still waiting to vote

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:41

Final Delhi numbers may not be know before 7:30 pm

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 04 Dec 2013 17:41

Times Now : over 75% turn out. Massive. BJP shying short of a majority. AAP has played its role it seems. If they indeed cut enough BJP votes, then you can expect AAP to go national in LS14. Absolute idiots, my fellow Delhiites. Idiots.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:45

BJP has > 3% vote share advantage in all exit polls > In a triangular contest this may be sufficient to get a simple majority

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 04 Dec 2013 17:47

If Times Now is correct, BJP will have a tough time forming government in Delhi and Chattisgarh.

So the polls are still going on in Delhi, how is Arnab giving projections for Delhi?

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 04 Dec 2013 17:49

weren't exit polls banned ? so how come all these channels are presenting it ?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:53

Times Now: MP to BJP

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:54

banned from publishing for the period not from collection

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2013 17:57

CNN IBN: BJP holding Chattisgarh