Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 30 Apr 2014 21:25

Frederic wrote:Just as a matter of curiosity, is Arun Jaitley a Punjabi (or) does he speak fluent Punjabi?

Yes he's a Punjabi, but a Dilli Billi.

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 30 Apr 2014 21:33

Ahmedabad, 30 April 2014

Presented below are seat-wise turnout figures at the end of the polling (at 6.00 pm), not officially shared by Election Commission. Final accurate figures. The final accurate figures are likely to be declared anytime tomorrow:

Vadodara: 70%
Surat: 58.84%
Navsari: 65.04%
Bharuch: 66%
Daman: 76.86%
Bhavnagar: 54%
Kutch: 59.68%
Porbandar: 43.64%
Junagadh: 55.99%
Sabarkantha: 61%
Rajkot: 51.74%
Bardoli: 67.81%
Chhota Udaipur: 53%
Dahod: 65%
Dadara Nagar Haveli: 83%
Jamngar: 49.22%
Ahmedabad(East): 54%
Mehsana: 60.84%
Gandhinagar: 52.10%
Banaskantha: 51.25%
Valsad: 66%
Amreli: 49%
Surendranagar: 47%
Patan: 51.87%
Kheda: 55.76%
Anand: 59.53%
Panchmahal: 52.11%

I see 2-3% more in actual.
Based on Voting percentage, I see 3 seats as risk. Surendranagar !!!! Shame.

Gujarat Gurus can comment.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 30 Apr 2014 21:34

A sobering assessment about Odisha from a statistician, that too with roots in rural Odisha:

BJD: 15
BJP: 5
Cong: 1

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 30 Apr 2014 21:41

Yashwant Deshmukh ‏@cvoter 14m

In Rest of India: BJP could be NDA. But in Punjab: BJP is SAD. Well; literally Now don't try to over-analyse )

Prasanna Viswanathan ‏@prasannavishy 20m

Lot of thought has gone in to AAP's candidate selection in Punjab . A good case study in disrupting 2 party status quo. Smart strategising

Prasanna Viswanathan ‏@prasannavishy 47m

Saffron day out in Uttar Pradesh. Finally Kangress opens account in UP. May be win 2 http://5forty3.in/2014/04/good-evening- ... 0th-april/ …

Saswati Sarkar ‏@sarkar_swati 30m

@prasannavishy 3: Mother, son, Anu Tandon

Prasanna Viswanathan ‏@prasannavishy 23m

@sarkar_swati Prof - Unnao is shockingly extreme caste polarisation. so refraining from making an early call

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 30 Apr 2014 21:43

Kati wrote:A sobering assessment about Odisha from a statistician, that too with roots in rural Odisha:

BJD: 15
BJP: 5
Cong: 1

Link?

Anyway, BJP wasn't really banking on Odisha to make up the numbers. Whatever they get there is a bonus considering the status of their state unit there.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 30 Apr 2014 21:48

News from LKO, FWIW:

Wife voted today (planned her India trip around that). Polled informally among friends, extended family, neighbors, etc over last two weeks. Among 250+ people (mainly thakur+khatri+brahman) spread across LKO city, almost to a man/woman everyone hit the "kamal" button. So there's some indication of where that segment of votes is going.

The EVM setup was apparently rather impressive. Two EVMs with all the candidates. There was also another device with a brightly lit screen, behind which it prints and displays a piece of paper with the symbol of the party you just voted for. Good paramilitary presence.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 30 Apr 2014 21:49

VB Singh ‏@vbsingh60 2h

62% voting in Gujarat, highest since 1967 poll, clearly indicates that there is Ahmed Patel wave.

In 2009 GE turnout was 47.9%

Seat > Turnout >> Margin (Votes)
Anand > 47.9% >> 10.0% (67,318)
Sabarkantha > 49.4 % >> 2.4% (17,160)
Surendranagar > 39.7 % >> 0.8% (4,831)

All data from > http://www.indiavotes.com/pc/info?eid=15&state=29

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 30 Apr 2014 21:50

Kati wrote:A sobering assessment about Odisha from a statistician, that too with roots in rural Odisha:

BJD: 15
BJP: 5
Cong: 1

Does this statistician have any assessments about theOdisha Assembly, Kati-ji?

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 30 Apr 2014 21:56

Kati wrote:A sobering assessment about Odisha from a statistician, that too with roots in rural Odisha:

BJD: 15
BJP: 5
Cong: 1

5 seats from OR is not sobering but delightful - deserves a drink or two.

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 30 Apr 2014 21:57

KLP Dubey wrote:News from LKO, FWIW:

Wife voted today (planned her India trip around that). Polled informally among friends, extended family, neighbors, etc over last two weeks. Among 250+ people (mainly thakur+khatri+brahman) spread across LKO city, almost to a man/woman everyone hit the "kamal" button. So there's some indication of where that segment of votes is going.

The EVM setup was apparently rather impressive. Two EVMs with all the candidates. There was also another device with a brightly lit screen, behind which it prints and displays a piece of paper with the symbol of the party you just voted for. Good paramilitary presence.

What and where is LKO?

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 30 Apr 2014 22:01

nachiket wrote:
Frederic wrote:Just as a matter of curiosity, is Arun Jaitley a Punjabi (or) does he speak fluent Punjabi?
Yes he's a Punjabi, but a Dilli Billi.

IIRC he's from Amritsar while Amarinder Singh is not.

Winning an election will give Jaitley a lot of clout, perhaps more than other BJP stalwarts because of his experience in Dilli.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 30 Apr 2014 22:04

5 seats in Orissa w/o a strong local leader is great.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 30 Apr 2014 22:06

An epic tweet I just had to share - Rai dene me wo maja kaha jo Rai lene me h. ~ Digvijay singh

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 30 Apr 2014 22:08

KLP Dubey wrote:News from LKO, FWIW:

Wife voted today (planned her India trip around that). Polled informally among friends, extended family, neighbors, etc over last two weeks. Among 250+ people (mainly thakur+khatri+brahman) spread across LKO city, almost to a man/woman everyone hit the "kamal" button. So there's some indication of where that segment of votes is going.

The EVM setup was apparently rather impressive. Two EVMs with all the candidates. There was also another device with a brightly lit screen, behind which it prints and displays a piece of paper with the symbol of the party you just voted for. Good paramilitary presence.

Oh first hint of VVPAT from Lucknow. EVM Magic without magic.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 30 Apr 2014 22:10

At the time of voting I searched for a symbol of two lit candles... found it to be the last in the list of 1st EVM out of the two... the name against the symbol read "Rahul Chimanbhai Mehta"... Thought about pressing that button for a split of second... then changed the mind and hit the first button reading LK Advani... in the box on the right of the EVM a piece of paper scrolled out which was showing black/white lotus above the word LK Advani written in Gujarati... paper was dropped out of the machine to go into the box below it... only the paper coming out and dropping could be seen from a narrow glassed window of the box. Paper trail EVMs are super!

LKA winning with huge margin.

Got about 200 voters pulled out of their home to vote. My booth polled 75%. It was a festival like atmosphere in the morning in my area. This is the area from where NM flew the kite with sallu this January.

Most of the problematic seats in GJ have seen good voting so all seems very good. Shankarsinh Vaghela seems to be in trouble. Porbandar scares me though. After low polling it not a safe seat anymore. It is an old cong fort breached only recently by bjp. Although there is NCP candidate there not cong's. I will try to get a confirmation on Porbandar.

@chandturakhia bhai, your numbers seem to be of 5pm. Almost all seats have higher percentage. In many there is gap of almost 10%. Voting picked up in final two hours.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 30 Apr 2014 22:13

Kati wrote:A sobering assessment about Odisha from a statistician, that too with roots in rural Odisha:

BJD: 15
BJP: 5
Cong: 1

Didn't 5forty3 indicate it could be up to 3 for BJP in Odisha? If 5, then that's a bonus considering in 2009 - 0, 2004 - 7, and 1999 - 9.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 30 Apr 2014 22:15

chaanakya wrote:Oh first hint of VVPAT from Lucknow. EVM Magic without magic.

Thanks, so that's what it is called. Google: VVPAT = voter verified paper audit trail.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 30 Apr 2014 22:19

merlin wrote:An epic tweet I just had to share - Rai dene me wo maja kaha jo Rai lene me h. ~ Digvijay singh

Also ~ NaMo, politically speaking of course

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 30 Apr 2014 22:20

Sangrur is sure win for Bhagwant Mann . He may be on Adharmic side but SAD with corruption filth and their leaders alleged to be drug peddlers doesnt sound too dharmic either.

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 30 Apr 2014 22:25

i am worried about Dahod seat in Guj

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 30 Apr 2014 22:29

atamjeetsingh wrote:Sangrur is sure win for Bhagwant Mann . He may be on Adharmic side but SAD with corruption filth and their leaders alleged to be drug peddlers doesnt sound too dharmic either.

Problem is AAP advance into Punjab is a sure way of enabling American interference in Punjab politics and reactivating the Khalistan movement.

The win would be spun by the media not as a win for Bhagwant Mann but for AAP, and thus for Kejriwal personally.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 30 Apr 2014 22:29

vishant chaudhary wrote:why is kasmir voting % is so low? is it sign of hatred for india?

terrorist fatwa enforced by secular AK-47's. a lot of sarpanches have been killed or threatened recently. LtGen Hasnain has an article on it, please read it.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 30 Apr 2014 22:31

आज तक ‏@aajtak 13m

सबको पता है मुलायम ने पहली पत्नी को कितना समय और सम्मान दिया: मायावती...#Aajtak http://bit.ly/SaUKdu

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 30 Apr 2014 22:33

A firm believer in 'Manufactured wave' theory

CNN-IBN News ‏@ibnlive 13m

Manini Chatterjee: India doesn't work on Gujarat model, higher voter turnout doesn't mean it will be in favor of Narendra Modi...

member_26255 · Post by **member_26255** » 30 Apr 2014 23:02

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 30 Apr 2014 23:10

agastya wrote:link

Summary translation please.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 30 Apr 2014 23:14

Suraj wrote:
agastya wrote:link

Summary translation please.

The headline says: "Nobody should help the Brahmins", as said by junior mullah Akhilesh Yadav.

One of the peaceful SP candidates made this clear to a Brahmin org in his constituency that since they had helped Mayawati get to power, the SP hates them and will have nothing to do with them. Junior mullah has told all SP workers to make sure nobody helps the Brahmins.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 30 Apr 2014 23:15

Frederic wrote:What and where is LKO?

LKO is airport code for Lucknow.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 30 Apr 2014 23:23

Thanks nachiket. I understood the headline, but got lost in the article.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 30 Apr 2014 23:29

12 days, 2 phases, 105 seats more to go!

Countdown to #NaMoSaka: 16 days

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 01 May 2014 00:04

RajeshA wrote:12 days, 2 phases, 105 seats more to go!

Countdown to #NaMoSaka: 16 days

It looks like NDA has already picked up 240-260 seats from the 7 phases so far.

My prediction: Phase 8: ~40 seats, Phase 9: ~20 seats.

Total 300-320 seats. BJP 272+, NDA 300+ on May 16 (maybe more if other parties admitted post-poll). I'm not seeing anything reliable that suggests otherwise.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 01 May 2014 00:58

KLP Dubey wrote:
RajeshA wrote:12 days, 2 phases, 105 seats more to go!

Countdown to #NaMoSaka: 16 days
It looks like NDA has already picked up 240-260 seats from the 7 phases so far.

My prediction: Phase 8: ~40 seats, Phase 9: ~20 seats.

Total 300-320 seats. BJP 272+, NDA 300+ on May 16 (maybe more if other parties admitted post-poll). I'm not seeing anything reliable that suggests otherwise.

I hope you are right... I am in perpetual dhoti shiver mode only till the 16th.

-M

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 01 May 2014 01:09

^^^At the most 250 after today. There are another 105 seats to go with 40+ in UP & Bihar. My guess is that NAMO will hit up to 2/3 of remaining seats in UP & Bihar. I am very doubtful NDA will cross 300, but there is a small possibility.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 01 May 2014 01:33

Mort Walker wrote:^^^At the most 250 after today. There are another 105 seats to go with 40+ in UP & Bihar. My guess is that NAMO will hit up to 2/3 of remaining seats in UP & Bihar. I am very doubtful NDA will cross 300, but there is a small possibility.

I agree with your assessment. Hard to see BJP get 272 seats by itself. Good chances of NDA crossing 250 but not 300.
As some say on this forum: Modi will loose only

-M

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 01 May 2014 01:33

What happens if BJP/NDA gets 138-148 seats and UPA gets 212 seats in LS 2014?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 01 May 2014 01:36

harbans wrote:What happens if BJP/NDA gets 138-148 seats and UPA gets 212 seats in LS 2014?

Nothing, continuation of 2004-14. Many R2I plans (not mine) will be differed.
Who knows Pakistan may merge back on India.

My thoughts on this: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/2012/ ... owing.html

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 01 May 2014 01:45

harbans wrote:What happens if BJP/NDA gets 138-148 seats and UPA gets 212 seats in LS 2014?

Harbans ji, The inner most desire of so many to see Pappu as PM (Since he is ummmm!! actually no reason) will be fulfilled and we all will live on the land donated by Jijaji.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 May 2014 01:46

So whats the consensus opinion after 4/30 round of polls? Is the 543 guy still making gibberish statements of math impossibility!

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 01 May 2014 01:46

Guys some worrying signs from Bihar...Twitter abuzz with NDA bagging only 3/7 seats that went polling yesterday.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 01 May 2014 01:47

confirms that EVMs are compromised