Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 02 May 2014 01:41

Mort Walker wrote:We'll see all the exit polls after 12 May and I'll pay attention to the CSDS polls and 5forty3.

Dr. Patil says he will give final projections in 24-36 without waiting for May 7.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 May 2014 01:41

Mort Walker wrote:
Sanjay wrote:muraliravi, if I haven't said it before - thanks for everything you've done.
+1

you are very welcome

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 02 May 2014 01:43

vnmshyam wrote:
chaitanya wrote:Sorry, slightly OT, but what is Low Purush?
Low Purush aka Loh Purush aka LOL Purush aka LKA

Add Limp Purush as well to the list.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 02:01

Saswati Sarkar ‏@sarkar_swati 3h

Prannoy Roy & Shekhar Gupta desperately trying to get BJP to act against Giriraj Singh perhaps 2 ensure backfire in UC region in next phase

Saswati Sarkar @sarkar_swati · 3h

Giriraj Singh is a bhumihar - subsequent phases in Bihar have high concentration of Brahmins & Bhumihars - hence the insistence on action!

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 May 2014 02:29

vivek.rao wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:We'll see all the exit polls after 12 May and I'll pay attention to the CSDS polls and 5forty3.
Dr. Patil says he will give final projections in 24-36 without waiting for May 7.

Are we ready to lungi dance this weekend?

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 02 May 2014 02:34

Mort Walker wrote: Are we ready to lungi dance this weekend?

NO! We need full-fledged anti-jinx right till May 16.

On May 16, keep a barrel full of booze ready. If things go acc. to plan, use it for the celebrations, if not drown your sorrow in it.

NaMo will lose onlee

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 May 2014 02:35

^^^Will do, but I need something to celebrate about?

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 02 May 2014 02:37

pankajs wrote:
Saswati Sarkar ‏@sarkar_swati 3h

Prannoy Roy & Shekhar Gupta desperately trying to get BJP to act against Giriraj Singh perhaps 2 ensure backfire in UC region in next phase
Saswati Sarkar @sarkar_swati · 3h

Giriraj Singh is a bhumihar - subsequent phases in Bihar have high concentration of Brahmins & Bhumihars - hence the insistence on action!

I'm pretty sure Singh is a Thakur.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 02 May 2014 03:00

Giriraj is rajput, 100%

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 02 May 2014 03:20

...leader-surjewala-doing-sexual-exploitation-of-nsui-girlShared by @pawankumarsingh (just now): RT @tajinderbagga: #***** Senior Leader Surjewala Doing Sexual exploitation of NSUI Girl: http://t.co/zBjrMmG5cY via …

.Did some one get the screen shot of Surjewala doing Singhvi act on Twitter. The tweet was removed prmpto.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 02 May 2014 03:32

Mort Walker wrote:
vivek.rao wrote: [We'll see all the exit polls after 12 May and I'll pay attention to the CSDS polls and 5forty3.
Dr. Patil says he will give final projections in 24-36 without waiting for May 7.]

Are we ready to lungi dance this weekend?

I thought you normally "do it" differently!

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 02 May 2014 03:39

Sanjay wrote:Yup I understand that only too well. My question is really who to give credibility to in terms of polling. 5forty3 is very interesting but when somebody is so overtly pro-BJP, I fear for distortion of results.

So you think NDTV is very impartial and unbiased ?

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 02 May 2014 04:04

Not at all. It is perhaps still the concern about the risk of pro-BJP pollsters hearing what they want to hear. Not saying that 5forty3 is doing that - I just do not know. Frankly NDTV is so overtly pro-CON that I gave up on them even for non-political news. However, are the pollsters also pro-Cong ? Harder to say.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 May 2014 04:08

Some are. The best bet is to use the 'wisdom of crowds' approach and take average of all surveys.

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 02 May 2014 04:10

Sanjay wrote:Not at all. It is perhaps still the concern about the risk of pro-BJP pollsters hearing what they want to hear. Not saying that 5forty3 is doing that - I just do not know. Frankly NDTV is so overtly pro-CON that I gave up on them even for non-political news. However, are the pollsters also pro-Cong ? Harder to say.

You should also look at betting market as an independent source of info. There is real money involved and people are unlikely to be emotional. I posted a screenshot yesterday, not sure you saw it. They are giving 210 to 240 for BJP alone and less than 80 for Congress alone. Note that they must be doing their own exit polls.

Here is the link
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 4#p1639184

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 May 2014 04:12

Estimate of the left parties in WB:
CPM = 10
CPI = 1
Forward Block = 1
RSP = 1

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 May 2014 04:18

Saik, Samyam and sandarbham.
And Vegas rules apply.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 02 May 2014 05:19

ramana wrote:One babu who was DySec IS in MHA used to get phone call records of his own phone to see who is calling him!!! Mostly brothers and sister.

Fascinating. Chanakya would be proud of him.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 02 May 2014 06:05

This long election schedule is killing me with anxiety.

Why does the EC need 7 days to move polling officers and security forces from Telangana to SA, or from one part of UP, Bihar, and WB to another? This is plain misuse of power.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 02 May 2014 06:18

Usually candidates and parties try to low-ball the expectations, to get their supporters out to vote for them and keep the campaign workers motivated. Why are Modi, Amit Shah, Rajnath, and BJP putting out numbers like 300 plus!
This could keep some of their supporters home thinking the fight is over; plus if they do not form the government such boasts would be adding salt to injury.

shyamoo · Post by **shyamoo** » 02 May 2014 06:28

VinodTK wrote:Usually candidates and parties try to low-ball the expectations, to get their supporters out to vote for them and keep the campaign workers motivated. Why are Modi, Amit Shah, Rajnath, and BJP putting out numbers like 300 plus!
This could keep some of their supporters home thinking the fight is over; plus if they do not form the government such boasts would be adding salt to injury.

This strategy disheartens the opposition cadre. BJP cadre will not be slacking. Rest assured. People on the fence would vote for BJP. No one would like to vote for a losing party.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 02 May 2014 06:40

^^^ Interesting. I too got the impression that they want to shake up the opposition camp....quite a non-SDRE approach. The very public comments about 'Robert Vadra will be jailed', the 'corrupt will be pursued' etc. will create a certain impression in their minds about will be in store for them after elections. On the other hand, it also makes the opposition fight the elections harder.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 02 May 2014 06:42

Mafia lost 20 in Rajasthan, 7 in Delhi, 25 in Ap, at least 17/18 in UP, what ever little they have in TN and Bihar. So we are looking loss of 70 plus seats before serious counting in other places and all these seats except in TN are going to bjp.

So present natural nasty behavior comes from this reality.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 02 May 2014 06:52

ramana wrote:And Modi is no ABV with Low Purush backstabbing him all the time!

ramana ji, pliss to elaborate on above. My understanding is that low purush gave up his PM berth to ABV and later regretted. Never heard of backstabbing though. TIA!

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 02 May 2014 07:11

Gus wrote:from todays thuglak. from surveys conducted by 7 tamil mags

The 7 came up with the above for BJP+: 3,5,11,2,9,5,4,3. Taking a mean, to make some sense of the data, one can predict 4-5 seats for BJP+ in TN. I think 2 for BJP and 3 for its partners is a reasonable expectation. Anything below will be a huge disappointment. Anything above 5 is bonus.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 02 May 2014 07:20

Narayana Rao wrote:Mafia lost 20 in Rajasthan, 7 in Delhi, 25 in Ap, at least 17/18 in UP, what ever little they have in TN and Bihar

So the yadav fortress has not been breached inspite of Ram Kirpal Yadav joining BJP? I have my doubts on your reading of Bihar. Bihar had overwhelmingly rejected Lalu 3 years ago. I don't see Biharis voting for Lalu outside of his core-Yadav+Muslim constituency. Also there is a lot of anger against Nikamma due to rising corruption. He has given lot of powers to panchayat/mukhiyas and mukhiyas as usual have screwed it up. RJD-INC combined vote share in last assembly election was 19+8%. RJD's share will go down, so will NIkamma's. LJP has about 7-8% vote share. BJP's vote share was 16.5% inspite of contesting 102 out of 243 seats. I see BJP-LJP easily scaling 40% giving them closer to niran's prediction. After all, NaMo's largest rally to date was in Patna inspite of bombs going off everywhere.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 May 2014 07:25

niran saab, If BJP gets 6/9 type result in WB, I am willing to come to your place and take crow sauce. Impossible sir jee. Even Sun can relent to raise from West instead of East if Jagan does goondagardhi but WB and BJP making everyother party there to smithereens is just not thinkable.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 02 May 2014 07:28

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 22m
There is Lalu wave in Bihar but his daughter lost in Pataliputra and wife trailing in Saran.Super

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 02 May 2014 07:30

self delete

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 May 2014 07:33

TonySoprano wrote:
Muppalla wrote:niran saab, If BJP gets 6/9 type result in WB, I am willing to come to your place and take crow sauce. Impossible sir jee. Even Sun can relent to raise from West instead of East if Jagan does goondagardhi but WB and BJP making everyother party there to smithereens is just not thinkable.
Exactly, niran lost all credibility in my eyes after saying such results for WB.

Oh no sir, if they get 6/9 in the west bengal seats that went to polls, EVM magic is for sure, just that this time around it is BJP that is creating the magic

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 02 May 2014 07:43

muraliravi wrote: Oh no sir, if they get 6/9 in the west bengal seats that went to polls, EVM magic is for sure, just that this time around it is BJP that is creating the magic

Lol i think you were joking but in case you were not, how does BJP have any control in that leftist-jihadi den?

saumitra_j · Post by **saumitra_j** » 02 May 2014 08:09

TonySoprano wrote: Exactly, niran lost all credibility in my eyes after saying such results for WB.

A Humble request onlee: If you do not believe someone (and you will have valid reasons for it!) please ignore. Request you to avoid raising other's credibility issues et al publicly. Unlike some of us internet experts who only discuss on forums and spend most of the time either whining or in intellectual ma****bation, Niran ji is actually doing the hard work on the ground, campaigning and what not for the nation. So when ever he gives info, it comes based on his ground level information which he is so kindly sharing with us. Ignore it if you want but the public dissing of credibility is not fair. JMT and all that.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 02 May 2014 08:09

SwamyG wrote:
Gus wrote:from todays thuglak. from surveys conducted by 7 tamil mags

The 7 came up with the above for BJP+: 3,5,11,2,9,5,4,3. Taking a mean, to make some sense of the data, one can predict 4-5 seats for BJP+ in TN. I think 2 for BJP and 3 for its partners is a reasonable expectation. Anything below will be a huge disappointment. Anything above 5 is bonus.

SwamyG
Who owns nakeeran, It gives the fewest seats to BJP

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 02 May 2014 08:11

Anantha wrote:
SwamyG
Who owns nakeeran, It gives the fewest seats to BJP

Nakeeran is pro-DMK

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 02 May 2014 08:14

muraliravi wrote:Oh no sir, if they get 6/9 in the west bengal seats that went to polls, EVM magic is for sure, just that this time around it is BJP that is creating the magic

I am not hoping for more than 2-3 seats from WB, but the wave creates other possibilities. All those NaMo rallies in WB weren't just for speaking practice, you know.

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 02 May 2014 08:18

Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 45m

If no EVM fraud then NDA will get 320 seats. Fraud could be possible only in Congi ruled states. We are working to minimise it.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 02 May 2014 08:19

Santosh wrote:maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 22m
There is Lalu wave in Bihar but his daughter lost in Pataliputra and wife trailing in Saran.Super

Looks like it is back to the cowshed for Lalu. Life comes full cycle. I am slightly disappointed that he wasn't allowed to contest the election and be the single RJD MP. Every darbar needs a vidushak, and Lalu fits the bill par excellence.

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 02 May 2014 08:22

^^^ What SS is saying, get ready for upa-3,4,5,6,7...........since EVM magic is coming

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 May 2014 08:24

should I start a separate dhoti shiver thread ?

everytime someone says anything, its back to collective shivering here.

people who are stressed beyond words should take a break until May7 and come back in a less jittery state of mind.

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 02 May 2014 08:27

amdavadi wrote:^^^ What SS is saying, get ready for upa-3,4,5,6,7...........since EVM magic is coming

Wasn't it the NDA government of ABV that started use of EVMs? SSwamy has a point in all this it seems. As my mother always said, hope for the best but prepare for the worst.