Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 03 Apr 2014 20:49

Mort Walker wrote:
Muraliraviji,

Good analysis. The AAP damages INC in some states and the BJP in other states. I think better than CSDS to determine trends is to look at the crowd turnout at the Bharat Vijay rallies particularly in UP & Bihar.

Mort Sir

The effect of these rallies are here in the CSDS march tracker on UP

BJP 36% (42-50)
SP 22% (11-17)
BSP 18% (10-16)
Cong+RLD 16% (4-8)

Rajeev karandikar who does the vote share to seat share conversion is getting even worse. I really doubt the seat tally. Compared to Jan, BJP had dipped 2% in Feb and has stayed there. SP has picked up marginally and gone ahead of the BSP. But BJP's seat tally has improved even more. Something is fishy.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 03 Apr 2014 21:12

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 03 Apr 2014 21:13

Arundhati Roy's mother joins AAP. Famous for saying 'Kashmir has never been a part of India'.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 03 Apr 2014 21:20

interesting that they didn't give seat predictions for punjab, hp or haryana

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Apr 2014 21:22

Guha is taking it very hard
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IBNLive Realtime ‏@IBNLiveRealtime 41m

Ramachandra Guha on UP - the rout of the Congress in UP is Rahul Gandhi's responsibility. It is a political failure of the family.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 03 Apr 2014 21:22

NDTV polls are on.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Apr 2014 21:26

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 46m

What Madhusudan Mistry did in Vadodara was Kejriwal style: Jaynarayan Vyas, BJP leader
------------------------------->>
Mistry was only following RaGa's directives .. Need to learn from AAP.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Apr 2014 21:44

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Apr 2014 21:49

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Apr 2014 21:51

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Apr 2014 21:55

Anyone watching Times Now ... M on M violence on TV Live

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 03 Apr 2014 21:57

^^ Please elaborate

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Apr 2014 22:03

Debate:Open fight for Muslim vote wrt Sonia-Bukhari meeting

Younger Bukhari, an AAP supporter blasting Congress as the most communal party in India

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 03 Apr 2014 22:15

^^^I almost misread the above as Yogender Bukhuri, LOL

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Apr 2014 22:17

pankajs wrote:Guha is taking it very hard
------------------------->
IBNLive Realtime ‏@IBNLiveRealtime 41m

Ramachandra Guha on UP - the rout of the Congress in UP is Rahul Gandhi's responsibility. It is a political failure of the family.

When a disaster happens its the family retainers who have hitched their wagon to the family that will stab it in the back. This is because of a sense of loss at having believed in the wrong wagon.

This is from time immemorial.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Apr 2014 22:35

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Apr 2014 22:38

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Apr 2014 22:39

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 03 Apr 2014 22:56

Seems MMJ was insisting that Ram Janmbhoomi be put into manifesto. Modi opposed that and said no cannot put that. Modi took the right call. Many of these contentious issues need not find manifesto mention. Manifesto must conatin what they will positively do and deliver, not intent. The intent is well understood.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Apr 2014 23:07

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Apr 2014 23:08

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 03 Apr 2014 23:09

harbans wrote:Seems MMJ was insisting that Ram Janmbhoomi be put into manifesto. Modi opposed that and said no cannot put that. Modi took the right call. Many of these contentious issues need not find manifesto mention. Manifesto must conatin what they will positively do and deliver, not intent. The intent is well understood.

Harbans ji,

They cannot avoid putting that in the manifesto, that will cause huge heartburn among some core supporters and karyakartas at large. They should phrase it better and say that BJP wishes to see a Ram Temple and the legal case is going on as expected. They should say that we expect the case to be resolved in favor of Ram Lala.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Apr 2014 23:11

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 03 Apr 2014 23:14

^^^How valid is this Hansa Research, and what has been their previous track record? They all look a bit low.
For BJP:
Bihar 28-30
Jarkh 11-12
MH 38-40
MP 26-28

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Apr 2014 23:17

pankajs wrote:Debate:Open fight for Muslim vote wrt Sonia-Bukhari meeting

Younger Bukhari, an AAP supporter blasting Congress as the most communal party in India

His exact words.

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 1h

No party is more dangerous for the Muslims than the Congress: Syed Yahya Bhukari, President, Jama Masjid United Forum #PolarisedPolls

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 03 Apr 2014 23:20

RamaY wrote:
harbans wrote:Ramay ji,the only difference between stating UCC/Temple/370 in a manifesto and quietly working to achieve it is a possibility BJP/ NDA will end a 50 seats less if stated openly. I trust that should not be difficult to understand.
Agreed.. like someone said, no need for manifesto to begin with.

NM already gave his vision - the seven-Rishis and Pancha-Tanmatras etc.

Simple five point agenda:
- Educational and economic opportunities for every one.
- Good, decisive and corruption-free governance
- Enforcement of rule of law and delivery of speedy justice
- No-nonsense national security and foreign policy firmly rooted in Indian interests.
- Delivering true potential of India to every Indian.

UCC and 370 are no big deal if BJP has to adopt INC methods that were used in AP split - pepper spray/video cuts. Constitutional protection of 371d is swept in that episode. 370 is no more than 371s. As for UCC it is directive principles that are already part of constitution and can be applied without any noise and with judicial help.

Temple is emotive issue that has to be dealt in open. It is political and religious issue that can flare up to riots else where. They can let courts deal with it or have deal with Muslims of Ayodhya/Kashi/Madhura and be done with those issues. If those local people agree, rest of the country can be managed. It is not Muslims that are an issue, it is psecs - apply incentives to Muslims and apply Dhand to psecs, things can go smooth.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 03 Apr 2014 23:45

Am continuing with the Cricket approach: Century and Half Century State combo's: A likely result

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 04 Apr 2014 00:02

only two seats in goa, how come three go to NDA, hain ji?

hansa is perhaps in paramananda while sampling. while I wish that this might be true picture over all, I cannot agree to the figures being pulled out of mush by hansa. MH-36: How I wish.. I will offer modaks at siddhivinayak temple if something like this materializes and have that prasaad distributed among the beggars of haji ali.

'

northwestern India is under Modi wave. that includes all the erstwhile maratha territories plus UP-Bihar. They will have a very high strike rate in this region (70% overall). but 36 in MH is impossible as of yet, unless something drastically miraculous happens. Even INC could not do this except once in 1991 (SP winning 37 seats for INC). NDA's best is 33. In best case scenario, they will reach this figure. And I do not see the best case happening.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 04 Apr 2014 00:06

Goa has only 2 LS constituencies

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 04 Apr 2014 01:03

Yes and apologies. OK here is my take final tally.

Modi will be 200 seats less from convincing the entire country about his agenda..

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 04 Apr 2014 01:11

harbans, wish I could share your optimism. I don't see us doing so well the Karnataka, Assam or Kerala or even Delhi. UP seems high. Are you basing this on ground level impressions ? I mean I really want to believe but...

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Apr 2014 01:20

harbans wrote:Ramay ji, Art 370 for example, the solutions are there. The integration referendum is one solution. If the Paki's, Westerners, separatists are so much about having people make a choice, then they should not be averse to allowing a referendum in Jammu and Ladhak to integrate devoid of Art 370 completely with India. That would leave a rump of the valley slightly larger than NCR where we can have the same referendum if they would like to integrate with India devoid of 370 or keep 370 special status. So the solution exists and i have written about it in my blog. Many of these solutions do not deserve a manifesto declaration. In fact they cannot be, as there are legal issues and perspectives and some outside the scope to force it through without 400 seats in the parliament. The temple issue too will either be solved by the courts or will be solved by some agreements with the communities. Both don't require a manifest declaration. FDI in retail is again a tricky thing. A declaration of blanket ban in FDI retail will only be harmful to BJP interests. So it's better some of these contentious stuff simmer in the back burner for a bit of time. Let us consolidate the change first. 300 first. Manifesto later.

According to Article 370, India really has only powers over defense, foreign affairs and currency in J&K. All the rest have to be approved by J&K Assembly.

So one can really forget having referendums in Jammu & Ladakh mandated by the Center.

What Modi Govt. ought to do is .....

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 04 Apr 2014 01:24

While the seats being won will not be obviously that high, but I think the interesting trend is the increasing vote share. BJP/RSS must maintain the momentum and start participating in state wise assembly and municipal elections.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 04 Apr 2014 01:32

Sanjay, last time around ABV time, UP vote share was 36% and they got 58 seats. Now it's 37% and rising, so UP will go up even discounting UKh. Bihar might be more not less. Basing it on that the peaking has not commenced yet IMO. There's much left. Lots of people are turning around. You can see that on your FB walls. AAP is going down, Sonia is not getting popular. INC is making mistakes. Muslims are debating, there is churning all around. The shackles are breaking, people are clambering on to the development, good roads, bijlee, paani delivery wagon. Trust that NM can deliver on these is going to go if not vertically at least horizontally broader. We will see history being made. For a further push we need 1-2 Arnab type interviews of Pappu. That will help. Tweet Sanjay Jha on that folks..

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 04 Apr 2014 01:35

harbans wrote:Am continuing with the Cricket approach: Century and Half Century State combo's: A likely result

BJP J&K:
Jammu has good chance
Udhampur is a close battle

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 04 Apr 2014 01:40

Rajesh ji, there is no sanctity in the State of J&K anymore than there is of the erstwhile Travancore, Hyderabad, Madras, Bombay, Bengal, UP etc etc. It vanished with Pak, China doing land grabs. Even apart from that the concept of a State never had permanent sanctity in India. The constitution can be amended for sure. Right numbers.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 04 Apr 2014 01:47

Nothing will happen if one fine day GoI removes A370.

How many MPs can say they want special status to JK but not their state?

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 04 Apr 2014 02:02

Paging muraliravi, nageshks & anyone else who has insight: can you guys please do a big favor?

We are trying to mobilize canvassing efforts & want to focus on swing constituencies. Could you, off the top of your head, list the swing constituencies per State?

For example, I heard that Anand & Khera districts fall into the swing category in Gujarat

Thanks in advance!

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 04 Apr 2014 02:05

Like I said in earlier post:
Udhampur-Doda needs some help.
Jammu-Poonch with some consolidation of Hindu votes.

satya · Post by **satya** » 04 Apr 2014 02:06

Here's the gossip topic for Battlefield UP :

1) BSP's votebank is not longer intact as in past . There will be cross voting but how many is an open question .

2) UP muslim voters exercising their right to vote will come down this time ( SG & co.'s last ditch efforts of courting mullahs openly case in point ) .Consensus around 'Stop Modi = last barrier before return of muslim rule in India' issue losing its traction. While UP muslims not going to vote for BJP but are they going to vote at all ?

3) UP Brahmins are the real wild card this time . BJP relying exclusively on Sanghis to get them on board. Is it sufficient ?

My question is : does any of the survey discount these three issues/factors ?