Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 01 May 2014 01:47

ramana wrote:So whats the consensus opinion after 4/30 round of polls? Is the 543 guy still making gibberish statements of math impossibility!

His latest tweet says that Namo4PM is virtually unstoppable now. I think he is too much of an optimist and pro BJP bias tilts his results. Just my 2 paisa.

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 01 May 2014 01:49

Congress is adamant it will bag 140 seats at least. What do our pundits have to say about this?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 01 May 2014 01:50

EVM Magic!!

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 01 May 2014 01:52

fanne wrote:EVM Magic!!

And with that NaMo will lose and Im being serious. India might be headed for more partitions, conversions will keep on occurring by Xtian missionaries, inflation will continue, economy will sink lower, and India will finally become a true banana republic. Seriously, I wish I cared less for India sincie I am living abroad, but I can't help it...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 May 2014 01:58

Lets stop the sky is falling worry.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 01 May 2014 02:04

TonySoprano wrote:Congress is adamant it will bag 140 seats at least. What do our pundits have to say about this?

120 max.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 01 May 2014 02:15

boss in case of bhootnath UPA 3 returns I'll presume hindusim is cursed to perish

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 01 May 2014 02:18

Navjot Siddhu disappeared and han't voted today for Jaitley http://www.punjabkesari.in/news/article-241421

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 01 May 2014 02:35

nageshks wrote:
Kati wrote:A sobering assessment about Odisha from a statistician, that too with roots in rural Odisha:

BJD: 15
BJP: 5
Cong: 1
Does this statistician have any assessments about theOdisha Assembly, Kati-ji?

Nageshks-ji and Dubey-ji:
The source tells me that the common people, while voting, had state in mind (not the center). That's why BJD is supposed to do well. The source also says that in rural areas NaMo wave was very limited, and
it was mostly in urban areas.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 01 May 2014 03:06

Tactical voting by Muslims on Apr 30 collapses as mullahs give confusing signals. Advantage BJP

After the reported disarray among Muslim voters in the three previous rounds, the ulema (clerics) had issued appeals to the community to be cautious while voting.

Jamiat Ulema Hind president Maulana Arshad Madni called for unity in the community, emphasising that tactical voting be undertaken to “frustrate the designs of the communal forces”.

But reports from the 14 constituencies, especially Kanpur, Fatehpur, Barabanki, Jalaun and Sitapur indicated that there were sharp divisions in the community that could end up helping the BJP.

The confusion can also be attributed to the fact that almost all non-BJP parties garnered the support of one or the other cleric. While Delhi Jama Masjid Shahi Imam Ahmad Bukhari openly urged Muslims to vote for the Congress, others worked quietly for inexplicable reasons.

Lucknow, which has a high concentration of nearly 4.5 lakh Muslims, forming nearly 25% of the city’s electorate of 18.5 lakh, was a test case on Wednesday. The entire exercise to prevent division of the community’s votes collapsed during the day as the Congress, Samajwadi Party and AAP succeeded in making dents into the minority vote bank.

Read: Rajnath eyes more Muslim votes than even Vajpayee in Lucknow

All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) executive committee member and imam of the Lucknow Eidgah, Maulana Khalid Mahli, who was quite active in the community, blamed “Muslim leaders” for the division. “The lack of political vision and proper guidance” led to the division, he lamented.

There was utter confusion in the community over the winnability of a candidate from the ‘secular formation’. In previous elections, the Milli Council, the political wing of the AIMPLB, played a vital role in guiding the community about who to vote for on the basis of surveys from the ground. But this time no such exercise was conducted. “We stopped this exercise because of objections from various quarters in the community,” council member Zafaryab Jilani said, adding that “there were divisions today”

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 01 May 2014 03:14

vivek.rao wrote: The confusion can also be attributed to the fact that almost all non-BJP parties garnered the support of one or the other cleric. While Delhi Jama Masjid Shahi Imam Ahmad Bukhari openly urged Muslims to vote for the Congress, others worked quietly for inexplicable reasons.

Lucknow, which has a high concentration of nearly 4.5 lakh Muslims, forming nearly 25% of the city’s electorate of 18.5 lakh, was a test case on Wednesday. The entire exercise to prevent division of the community’s votes collapsed during the day as the Congress, Samajwadi Party and AAP succeeded in making dents into the minority vote bank.

So the sickular herrows have shot themselves in the foot by trying to outdo each other in sucking up to the Muslims.

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 01 May 2014 03:24

nachiket wrote:
vivek.rao wrote: The confusion can also be attributed to the fact that almost all non-BJP parties garnered the support of one or the other cleric. While Delhi Jama Masjid Shahi Imam Ahmad Bukhari openly urged Muslims to vote for the Congress, others worked quietly for inexplicable reasons.

Lucknow, which has a high concentration of nearly 4.5 lakh Muslims, forming nearly 25% of the city’s electorate of 18.5 lakh, was a test case on Wednesday. The entire exercise to prevent division of the community’s votes collapsed during the day as the Congress, Samajwadi Party and AAP succeeded in making dents into the minority vote bank.

So the sickular herrows have shot themselves in the foot by trying to outdo each other in sucking up to the Muslims.

Hah, that would make a nice cartoon topic for Kureel!

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 01 May 2014 03:35

TonySoprano wrote:Guys some worrying signs from Bihar...Twitter abuzz with NDA bagging only 3/7 seats that went polling yesterday.

The seven constituencies that went to polls today are Khagaria, Begusarai, Darbhanga, Samastipur, Madhepura, Madhubani and Jhanjharpur.

Of these, Samastipur is most likely gone since it was given to Paswan and he fielded his brother, Ram Chandra Paswan. This character used to contest from Rosera, a backyard of Ram Vilas, but has since moved to Samastipur. This guy is not very inspiring, and also, Samastipur still has too much of the old JD(U) base that the BJP has not been able to dent, and the MY factor would ensure victory for the UPA. This one is tough for the NDA.

Madhubani is the traditional stronghold of the Maithili Brahmins, and they generally vote for the BJP. Usually the Gope-Thop (Yadav Brahmin) factor ensures victory for the Yadav candidate fielded here by the BJP, but given that Hukum Deo Narayan Yadav is contesting for the BJP, I have no idea what the Brahmins might have done. Hukum had gained too much of a bad name, he is anti-Brahmin, and he is 80+, so he is extremely uninspiring. These two were the danger seats for the BJP. However, there was a low intensity blast yesterday, and IM is very active in the Mithila region, so it is very possible that Brahmins and other UCs might have closed ranks behind the BJP. If they have done that, BJP should be fine.

Madhepura is going to go down to the wire, but this is Laloo's seat, so he might have snatched this one too. BJP had done very well in this seat, consolidating the Brahmins and the Kushwahas to beat the Yadavs, but still, this is not easy to win. This is impossible to predict. Sharad Yadav is going down badly, so that is one thing to chalk up.

Darbhanga and Begusarai are easily upper caste (read BJP) strongholds. Kirti Azad and Bhola Singh should have respectively won them with contemptuous ease. In his heydays, Laloo was able to win these with a combination of all OBCs and Muslims, but with OBCs and EBCs split three way between BJP, RJD and JD(U), BJP is going to win these. These two are not going anywhere.

That leaves us with Khagaria and Jhanjharpur. In Jhanjharpur, BJP had fielded Virendra Kumar Chaudhary. I don't have much information about this character. If anyone knows anything about him, please do let me know. However, the demographic profile of Jhanjharpur is rather similar to Madhubani, but without the stigma of Hukum Deo Narayan Yadav, BJP should be fine here. Yadav votes will go to Laloo, but other upper castes + Kushwahas should have gravitated to BJP to undo any advantage RJD had gained.

Khagaria is the last one, and it is a rather dicey one. This is the home turf of an extremely unpleasant JD(U) character called Shakuni Chaudhari (he had promised to bury NaMo alive in Bihar), who might split the BJP's upper caste (particularly Bhumihar) vote base. This one had been left to LJP and they had fielded a Muslim (Chaudhari Mehboob Qaisar) here. I don't know if BJP's saffronised upper castes will vote this character with the same fervour that they would have voted for a BJP candidate. Between Shakuni and Qaisar, I don't feel confident predicting this one.

So, all in all, I should say BJP can surely win 3, possibly 4-5.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 01 May 2014 03:37

TonySoprano wrote:Guys some worrying signs from Bihar...Twitter abuzz with NDA bagging only 3/7 seats that went polling yesterday.

Twitter has less credibility than MSM. I think it is better to read an analysis on this elsewhere.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 01 May 2014 03:44

nageshks wrote:
Madhubani is the traditional stronghold of the Maithili Brahmins, and they generally vote for the BJP. Usually the Gope-Thop (Yadav Brahmin) factor ensures victory for the Yadav candidate fielded here by the BJP, but given that Hukum Deo Narayan Yadav is contesting for the BJP, I have no idea what the Brahmins might have done. Hukum had gained too much of a bad name, he is anti-Brahmin, and he is 80+, so he is extremely uninspiring. These two were the danger seats for the BJP.

Khagaria is the last one, and it is a rather dicey one. This is the home turf of an extremely unpleasant JD(U) character called Shakuni Chaudhari (he had promised to bury NaMo alive in Bihar), who might split the BJP's upper caste (particularly Bhumihar) vote base. This one had been left to LJP and they had fielded a Muslim (Chaudhari Mehboob Qaisar) here. I don't know if BJP's saffronised upper castes will vote this character with the same fervour that they would have voted for a BJP candidate. Between Shakuni and Qaisar, I don't feel confident predicting this one.

These look like two major candidate selection blunders that seem to have turned easy wins into possible losses.

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 01 May 2014 03:48

Mort Walker wrote:
TonySoprano wrote:Guys some worrying signs from Bihar...Twitter abuzz with NDA bagging only 3/7 seats that went polling yesterday.
Twitter has less credibility than MSM. I think it is better to read an analysis on this elsewhere.

The only other analysis is Patil and he is predicting BJP sweep all seven bihar seats!

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 01 May 2014 03:51

The Bihar vote against the BJP was divided between lalu and niku, hence BJP did well. My guess is 5/7.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 01 May 2014 03:51

The truth is probably somewhere in between what Patil is saying and the dire predictions on Twitter. 3/7 would be a terrible result although not a total loss.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 01 May 2014 03:53

TonySoprano wrote:Congress is adamant it will bag 140 seats at least. What do our pundits have to say about this?

I still say cong can easily get 125 and i also have been this for a while, put people who live on mars think that only evm magic can fetch cong 125 seats

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 01 May 2014 03:54

All this 'candidate blunder' talk is giving me a headache at this point. If 5forty3 is to be believed, AJ, RNS and MMJ are all cruising to easy wins, despite the pre poll talk of them - especially AJ - being on sticky wickets. He even gives Madhepura to the BJP candidate by a comfortable margin. It's hard to really wrap one's head around arguments that made more sense before polling began, than they do now.

Not saying any particular person is right or wrong, but there's really no way to know until May 16.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 01 May 2014 03:56

^^Suraj, 5forty3 is giving all seven seats to the BJP. I don't think I'm the only one suggesting that he may be getting carried away in his predictions.

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 01 May 2014 04:04

There is is "Suyash Bharadwaj" on twitter who is basically king of IBTL. He now says 9seats to BJP in UP and 6/7 for bihar.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 01 May 2014 04:08

TonySoprano wrote:
ramana wrote:So whats the consensus opinion after 4/30 round of polls? Is the 543 guy still making gibberish statements of math impossibility!
His latest tweet says that Namo4PM is virtually unstoppable now. I think he is too much of an optimist and pro BJP bias tilts his results. Just my 2 paisa.

HE is the same Albatross in flight guy who made super high predictions for Bhajpa in UP and they got 10% of what he predicted IIRC

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 01 May 2014 04:12

^^

But his projections for 2013 assemby elections turned out well right? I for one would be extremely pissed if he is off by a large margin come May 16.

disha · Post by **disha** » 01 May 2014 04:19

Tony'ji

Please go and read my post in NaMo thread or this FirstPost article http://m.firstpost.com/politics/electio ... tml?page=1

Currently the situation is that people have already forgotten who the current PM is and some already thing NaMo is the PM. I will not be surprised if IB is already giving him regular updates!

BJP conservatively on its own will win @220 seats. And I think it will win @243 seats. BJP will definitely win 190 seats. NaMO is the PM.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 01 May 2014 04:20

I don't know much about his UP 2012 predictions, but my general impression of 5forty3 is that he's developing a methodology using prior experience. Psephology is not an exact science, and prior experience at correctly or wrongly predicting an election gives invaluable insights on how to do it the next time. This can be seen from the fact that 5forty3 did call the Dec 2013 4-state elections quite accurately compared to his alleged UP 2012 performance. He even came close to getting Delhi right, which most opinion and exit polls got very wrong.

Rather than argue "he got UP 2012 wrong so he can't be believed" my own viewpoint is "he may have got UP 2012 wrong, which taught him how not to read certain things about UP electoral process". That's not to say he'll get it right, but undoubtedly, I would expect him to have a more rigorously backtested methodology this time around. It won't be perfect, but it'll be better than UP 2012. At the very least, it'll be far more rigorous than anyone making 'zomg! I just read on twitter that...' projections.

It's the nature of a multicornered 1st past the post fight that you can be mostly correct about trends and be completely wrong about result because of a relatively small sampling error between actual voting breakdown and your own sampling. In addition, the 18-35 - with significant first-timer - demographic makes anyone's projection effort a nightmare because their historical voting profile is unknown.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 01 May 2014 04:35

The best congress can hope for is a repeat of 1996. We may see a lallu, mamta or Jaya as a pm.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 01 May 2014 04:41

TonySoprano wrote:Guys some worrying signs from Bihar...Twitter abuzz with NDA bagging only 3/7 seats that went polling yesterday.

If u use 2% error margin of 543 predictions and reduce 2% from bjp and give it to upa, in todays 7 seats its even even, so 3/7 is perfect

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 01 May 2014 04:46

nachiket wrote:The truth is probably somewhere in between what Patil is saying and the dire predictions on Twitter. 3/7 would be a terrible result although not a total loss.

I assumed 5/7 from BH on Apr 30 when calculating the total estimate of ~250 so far for NDA.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 01 May 2014 04:55

nachiket wrote:^^Suraj, 5forty3 is giving all seven seats to the BJP. I don't think I'm the only one suggesting that he may be getting carried away in his predictions.

Remember the 543 guy has already declared that he is "downgrading" his raw data of the NDA vote share based upon some methodology that is unclear to me. His reasoning, if I understand correctly, is that without the "downgrade" the predictions for NDA are way too good to be true!

I had a problem with that reasoning (as I posted earlier). Either he is trying to correct a serious problem with his methodology by doing some arbitrary scaling, OR the NaMo wave is beyond all expectations and he is not taking that into account properly.

Whatever be the case, the upshot is that Patil claims his projections are already conservative.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 01 May 2014 05:01

I for one am keeping muraliravi's prediction as the seats that the BJP/NDA will win. Not keeping my hopes too high. It will be hard to come to terms later on if 5Forty3's prediction turn out to be too rosy!

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 01 May 2014 05:03

KLP Dubey wrote:
nachiket wrote:^^Suraj, 5forty3 is giving all seven seats to the BJP. I don't think I'm the only one suggesting that he may be getting carried away in his predictions.
Remember the 543 guy has already declared that he is "downgrading" his raw data of the NDA vote share based upon some methodology that is unclear to me. His reasoning, if I understand correctly, is that without the "downgrade" the predictions for NDA are way too good to be true!

I had a problem with that reasoning (as I posted earlier). Either he is trying to correct a serious problem with his methodology by doing some arbitrary scaling, OR the NaMo wave is beyond all expectations and he is not taking that into account properly.

Whatever be the case, the upshot is that Patil claims his projections are already conservative.

He had tweeted something like that during the previous phase (April 24) or the one before that. I don't think he's doing that for all phases. I also don't understand how this arbitrary scaling is supposed to give a more accurate picture.

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 01 May 2014 05:04

^^^ I think this is a misunderstanding of 5forty3. He has given current predictions based on raw sample data. The sampling is not exact representation of voting population. For example, x percent of some group was sampled but they are y percent in voting population. He needs to analyze such things and give a more correct prediction in due time. There is nothing sinister about that.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 01 May 2014 05:08

putnanja wrote:I for one am keeping muraliravi's prediction as the seats that the BJP/NDA will win. Not keeping my hopes too high. It will be hard to come to terms later on if 5Forty3's prediction turn out to be too rosy!

Muraliravi's analysis seems more realistic (BJP ~190 and NDA ~230-240). But I don't share his confidence that the NDA will be able to get the extra 30-40 seats needed fairly easily to form a government. I'm hoping that NaMo and co. have pulled off a miracle somehow and boosted BJP's seats to around 220. I'll be extremely happy if BJP reaches 220 by itself to be honest.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 01 May 2014 05:09

TonySoprano wrote:
fanne wrote:EVM Magic!!
And with that NaMo will lose and Im being serious. India might be headed for more partitions, conversions will keep on occurring by Xtian missionaries, inflation will continue, economy will sink lower, and India will finally become a true banana republic. Seriously, I wish I cared less for India sincie I am living abroad, but I can't help it...

TonySopranoJi,

"TonySoprano wrote:
Whatever you guys, I still think India has atleast 70-80 million Christians and many of the predominantly Australoid Dravidians and former Untouchables have had enough of caste oppression by Brahmins. Hinduism is clearly not the answer, India needs a liberating religion that is truly universal, non-violent, and is found in the heritage of India: I see no other option other than Buddhism. Infact, where many former Untouchables converted to Buddhism, the Church's plan of harvesting souls have failed.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 5#p1546455

Just curious, whose side are you really on? Is NaMo a Buddhist?

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 01 May 2014 05:10

nachiket wrote:He had tweeted something like that during the previous phase (April 24) or the one before that. I don't think he's doing that for all phases. I also don't understand how this arbitrary scaling is supposed to give a more accurate picture.

This is the tweet on Apr 28:

Dr. Praveen Patil @5Forty3
Most of our projections so far are essentially downward revisions of BJP & if something like December happens again, God Save Congress!

He was doing this for Phases 1-6, and I don't see anything from him that indicates he is taking a different approach for Phases 7-9.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 01 May 2014 05:10

KLP Dubey wrote:
nachiket wrote:The truth is probably somewhere in between what Patil is saying and the dire predictions on Twitter. 3/7 would be a terrible result although not a total loss.
I assumed 5/7 from BH on Apr 30 when calculating the total estimate of ~250 so far for NDA.

Interesting. I do not think 5Forty3 has given any numbers for 30-Apr. Prior to that his total was 190 for NDA. So you are expecting 60/89 on 30th Apr?

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 01 May 2014 05:16

Cosmo_R wrote:"TonySoprano wrote:
Whatever you guys, I still think India has atleast 70-80 million Christians and many of the predominantly Australoid Dravidians and former Untouchables have had enough of caste oppression by Brahmins. Hinduism is clearly not the answer, India needs a liberating religion that is truly universal, non-violent, and is found in the heritage of India: I see no other option other than Buddhism. Infact, where many former Untouchables converted to Buddhism, the Church's plan of harvesting souls have failed.

TonySoprano sounds like some of the "Dalitstan" guys back from the 90s. I wonder if he has converted to Boodism himself, or whether he is only wanting others to convert. Boodism in India has no attraction (even for dalits) except as a means of getting some extra tourist dollars from east/southeast asia.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 01 May 2014 05:17

Vamsee wrote:Interesting. I do not think 5Forty3 has given any numbers for 30-Apr. Prior to that his total was 190 for NDA. So you are expecting 60/89 on 30th Apr?

No, I assumed 53/89 from Apr 30.

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 01 May 2014 05:27

Cosmo_R wrote: TonySopranoJi,

"TonySoprano wrote:
Whatever you guys, I still think India has atleast 70-80 million Christians and many of the predominantly Australoid Dravidians and former Untouchables have had enough of caste oppression by Brahmins. Hinduism is clearly not the answer, India needs a liberating religion that is truly universal, non-violent, and is found in the heritage of India: I see no other option other than Buddhism. Infact, where many former Untouchables converted to Buddhism, the Church's plan of harvesting souls have failed.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 5#p1546455

Just curious, whose side are you really on? Is NaMo a Buddhist?

I am against conversions to Abrahamic religions and I think Hinduism is not conducive to national solidarity hence my preference is Buddhism. Mind you, I much rather prefer to live in Hindu majority India than Christian or Muslim India.

NaMo has great respect for Buddhism like he does for all dharmic faiths. It is not for no reason that Dalit leader Udit Raj who converted lakhs of Dalits from Hinduism to Buddhism is now a BJP member.

And all this is clearly OT and this will be my last post on this thread regarding religion.