Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 01 May 2014 22:29

Yup I understand that only too well. My question is really who to give credibility to in terms of polling. 5forty3 is very interesting but when somebody is so overtly pro-BJP, I fear for distortion of results.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 May 2014 22:34

Sanjay,

That is why we have the Good Judgment Project on Indian elections to get the wisdom of the crowds. Do read the weekly tallies that give sense. Will try to get Saral to put up some graphs to show trend lines now that we have four rounds.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 01 May 2014 22:35

Ah yes - good idea. Ramana, you're a sane sort of fellow - what's your take ?

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 01 May 2014 22:36

gandharva wrote:
IndraD wrote:I have many relatives in Bihar including my parents, they have all voted for BJP and there is strong Modi wave, RJD-Lalu comeback is a media spin started by Times House.
To channelize M votes to Lalu from JDU.

This media terrorists and Shitizens worry me a lot.

Imagine when Modi win: AAP+PAIDMEDIA+Civil Soceity Shitizens+ NGOs+ Foreign agencies + ISI + IM+CON all will be plotting from day one on how to destroy Modi. How do we counter that?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 01 May 2014 22:39

Then wait for exit polls on 12th. There is no other way to get a real idea. BTW, PP guy is a nutjob. I will not call him a professional.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 May 2014 22:39

Sanjayji,

If you browse through this thread you will find that everyone started with a very low baseline for BJP. I think people posted ranges like 130-150 and gradually moving up.
Unless one is in India and had opportunity to see NaMo addressing mammoth gathering (in the background of economic downturn), it is very difficult to understand how much different this election is from 2009.
BRF estimates are very conservative. Check the thread that Ramana is talking about, I think it is only in last round or so that the estimates have started picking up.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 01 May 2014 22:40

Huge turnout for Nitish in Chappra:

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 May 2014 22:41

^^
Half of them there to see the helicopter

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 01 May 2014 22:42

Shaktimaan wrote:Sanjayji, here it is :

https://twitter.com/IamIconoclast

This guy is broadcasting super positive news about the BJP's performance.

On twitter, there is baseless positive news and baseless negative news. Choose your poison and either dhoti shiver or sleep peacefully! There is nothing else we can do till May 16th.

Very different predictions by "bosechem". IIRC, he is the same person who posted on Chakresh Mishra's election blogs in the run-up to Lok sabha 2009. IIRC, he got both Lok Sabha 2009 and UP 2012 right. Patil's predictions for UP 2012 were wrong.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 01 May 2014 22:46

SRoy, good points and well taken as is Supratik's. It is just that this purported news from Bihar is so completely at odds as to what was happening before that it took me aback. I also know that we all seriously got the 2004 and 2009 results wrong.

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 01 May 2014 22:49

Sanjay wrote:Relax they are doing much better and will chug a decent haul in Bihar.

Like I said there are polls going on and people who know, know. Check out iconoclast handle on twitter.[/quote]

can't find.[/quote]

type in "iamiconoclast", he seems to be in the know

BTW: shahid siddiqui said BJP getting maximum 23 seats in Bihar.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 01 May 2014 22:49

Am amazed to see the temerity of ToI-let in casting NaMo consistently in negatives. Yesterday ToI-let
ran a headline saying 'NaMo facing 2 years jail....", while all other newspapers were much guarded,
especially Kolkata-based ones just brushed the matter off. Just wondering how ToI is getting so much
hyperactive in anti-NaMo campaign?....Looks like it has some Videshi backing, and don't care much of
desi readers.
...Once namo comes to power, there will be a serious need to overhaul media ownership in Bharat.
In massa-land, in order to own any media outlet one must be a massa-citizen (which forced auzzie
nutty Rupert Murdoch to take dual citizenship of massaland). We need to do the same in Bharat so that
slandering can be easily prosecuted. At least, they should be under check.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 01 May 2014 22:52

Psephology is not a perfect science. So you can go wrong. It depends on how good is your formula. However, guys predicting on twitter are just producing numbers from their mussharraf's.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 May 2014 22:56

^^^ My take is "professionalism" -- those who put their money where the mouth is -- i.e. lose out if their predictions are not correct, are reliable.

Everyone else (including 5fourty3 etc) are kite flying. Their numbers are no better than mine.

In this regard, I like Muraliravi-ji's poll of polls, and am taking that number of around 200 for BJP as worst case and 210-220 best case.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 01 May 2014 22:57

Follow bosechem on twitter. He is one of the conservative guys when it comes to BJP numbers and gets it right mostly.

CSDS March Tracker gave (BJP+) (21-29)/40 in bihar and UPA (7-13)/40 and JDU (2-5)/40. But as I have repeated before, please watch a IBNlive discussion yesterday with a guy from csds where he clearly mentions that their post poll data is consistent with their march numbers except in areas of bihar where the MY consolidation has become more intense in Lalu's favor and is working against the BJP.

Their March tracker midpoint is

NDA-25
UPA-10
JDU - 4

So if NDA is going a little lower, NDA -20 and UPA -15 cannot be ruled out

Now consider this, for those who subscribe to 543,

Phase 1 in Bihar 6 seats, look at his vote share predictions (http://5forty3.in/2014/04/the-heartland-analysis/) the gap between NDA and UPA is so huge that his seat share predictions can be relied upon with full confidence

Phase 2 in Bihar 7 seats, (http://5forty3.in/2014/04/changing-dyna ... ojections/), same story huge gap, no problem

Phase 3 in Bihar 7 seats (http://5forty3.in/2014/04/saffron-dalit ... 4th-april/), look at the vote share, both NDA and UPA are neck to neck, he has a 2% error margin which can go either way. I have zero confidence in the seat predictions with such tantalizingly close vote shares.

Phase 4 in Bihar 7 seats (http://5forty3.in/2014/04/good-evening- ... 0th-april/), he has not yet predicted seats, but look at the vote share again, though NDA has a lead, 2% error margin makes it so close if the 2% moves against NDA.

Overall, I am relatively confident that of the 1st 13 seats NDA will pull of 10.

In Phase 3, I am inclined to giving a 5 for UPA and 2 for NDA considering the inherent 2% bias that 543 has for BJP.

In Phase 4 It will be neck and neck making it 3 for NDA and 4 for UPA is i use the 2% against NDA to make vote shares even.

so as of now 15/27 is for NDA and 12/27 for UPA and 0 for JDU.

Now in the remaining 13, I wont be surprised if NDA gets 5-6 of the 13 taking the total tally to 21/40 which is right around where CSDS numbers are if you add the negative update they have provided owing to MY consolidation.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 01 May 2014 22:57

one has to wait till may 16th to confirm anything.. all other methods will only get verified then. so, how much ever we go by the survey methods, there is always the samples and method flaws that we are not including.. keep your fingers crossed or have some bp pills!

member_21074 · Post by **member_21074** » 01 May 2014 22:59

Supratik wrote:Please don't go by twitter on either side. Leave it to the professionals like 5forty3.

If it helps, my grandfather in bihar has voted for niku as of cast compulsion and some good local work he has done. But even he was sad that BJP is winning, considering he is anti NaMo and anti Bihar BJP for his own reasons( old political expectations).
In his words,"these young people will regret"

Assuming no EVM magic, I see very little chance of BJP going south. It's true bihar votes on caste lines, but this time people are well informed about benefit of development.
At least I believe people of my generation and my parent's generation far outnumber oldies (no disrespect meant) and they have voted for BJP, irrespective of local candidate.

rohitv · Post by **rohitv** » 01 May 2014 22:59

http://news.jagranjunction.com/2014/04/ ... ationship/

Apparently a sealed envelop was sent to media houses yesterday which contained the email/sms exchanges between diggi babu and the rstv news anchor. Dainik Jagaran has posted some of it on its website.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 May 2014 23:02

Sanjay wrote:Ah yes - good idea. Ramana, you're a sane sort of fellow - what's your take ?

Modi will form the govt.

When PMO burns files like Nero its time for change. They don't want files on their own folks to fall in Modi hands. Will take time to resurrect thse files but by then they will be rafoo chakkar.

ABV did not do that as the 2004 loss was unexpected. Thats how D4 got compromised with Neoryanan using those files as his first duty was to protect the Nehru lineage as IB task.
PMO collects maal on everyone. Thats a fact of life.
They may even have file on BRF!

One babu who was DySec IS in MHA used to get phone call records of his own phone to see who is calling him!!! Mostly brothers and sister.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 01 May 2014 23:06

BTW, check out bosechem's tweets (as i mentioned he is even more conservative than I am, but he has a good track record)

He gives NDA 165-175 until Phase 6 out of 349

Says we can expect 40-45 in phase 7 taking total to 205-215 after phase 7

In Phase 8 and 9, BJP can pull off around 15-20 in the 33 seats in UP, Bihar about 6/13, Uttarakhand and HP 7/9, and AP around 13 in AP of the 25 takes it to about 45.

This will take tally to about 250 for NDA. So puts BJP in early 200's. Not bad.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 May 2014 23:08

^^ And that is being a pessimist ?

LoL

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 01 May 2014 23:08

Kati wrote:Am amazed to see the temerity of ToI-let in casting NaMo consistently in negatives. Yesterday ToI-let
ran a headline saying 'NaMo facing 2 years jail....", while all other newspapers were much guarded,
especially Kolkata-based ones just brushed the matter off. Just wondering how ToI is getting so much
hyperactive in anti-NaMo campaign?....Looks like it has some Videshi backing, and don't care much of
desi readers.
...Once namo comes to power, there will be a serious need to overhaul media ownership in Bharat.
In massa-land, in order to own any media outlet one must be a massa-citizen (which forced auzzie
nutty Rupert Murdoch to take dual citizenship of massaland). We need to do the same in Bharat so that
slandering can be easily prosecuted. At least, they should be under check.

According to first person account of one Sanghi, the leading lady of TOI said to him, my full aashirwads to you for serving Bharat despite of consistent vilification campaign against RSS, keep doing your dharma. Our company needs to continue doing what it does for various reasons including business interests but not only business interests.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 01 May 2014 23:09

rohitv wrote:http://news.jagranjunction.com/2014/04/ ... ationship/

Apparently a sealed envelop was sent to media houses yesterday which contained the email/sms exchanges between diggi babu and the rstv news anchor. Dainik Jagaran has posted some of it on its website.

buddha is having relation since 2010. Moron now is admitting after she leaks pics to blackmail him to marriage.

Man! She has to blackmail this ugly/toothless obnoxious creep with soft weapon

to marry him?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 01 May 2014 23:09

If confirmed on file burnings, and the extent of national loss, MMS along with his queendom should go to jail!

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 May 2014 23:10

muraliravi wrote:BTW, check out bosechem's tweets (as i mentioned he is even more conservative than I am, but he has a good track record)

He gives NDA 165-175 until Phase 6 out of 349

Says we can expect 40-45 in phase 7 taking total to 205-215 after phase 7

In Phase 8 and 9, BJP can pull off around 15-20 in the 33 seats in UP, Bihar about 6/13, Uttarakhand and HP 7/9, and AP around 13 in AP of the 25 takes it to about 45.

This will take tally to about 250 for NDA. So puts BJP in early 200's. Not bad.

With these numbers it is UPA3

If these numbers are true then BJP is totally clueless about what's happening on ground. On the contrary we have to make sense of NaMo no holds barred campaign against JJ and MB.

The above is dhoti shiver only, I think BJP has already crossed the point where they don't need these riff-raff. And such point is much higher score than these.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 01 May 2014 23:11

from todays thuglak. from surveys conducted by 7 tamil mags

1. anbumani of pmk should win dharmapuri
2. pon. radhakrishnan should win kanyakumari

dmk can get assured 2. nagapattinam and central chennai. i am sure dhayanidhi maran must have spent crores and crores for buying votes in central chennai. i doubt thanjavur will go dmk when even their own cadre are annoyed that t.r.baalu was foisted on them instead of a local candidate.

virudhunagar should go to vaiko. coimbatore and pollachi are leaning BJP and they should win if they are able to attract both the gounder community votes without repelling the other caste votes. the area has sizeable middle class as well.

the biggest tragedy would be if Nilgiris goes to spectrym Raja.

congress and commies are nowhere in the picture. nation will get some money back from them in the form of deposits.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 May 2014 23:13

So Doggy was cheating with another woman on his dying wife also!!!! What credibility does this old foggy have and need to question Sonia's trust in having him mentor Rahulbaba!

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 01 May 2014 23:13

SRoy wrote:
muraliravi wrote:BTW, check out bosechem's tweets (as i mentioned he is even more conservative than I am, but he has a good track record)

He gives NDA 165-175 until Phase 6 out of 349

Says we can expect 40-45 in phase 7 taking total to 205-215 after phase 7

In Phase 8 and 9, BJP can pull off around 15-20 in the 33 seats in UP, Bihar about 6/13, Uttarakhand and HP 7/9, and AP around 13 in AP of the 25 takes it to about 45.

This will take tally to about 250 for NDA. So puts BJP in early 200's. Not bad.
With these numbers it is UPA3

How is it UPA3 ?

-M

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 01 May 2014 23:14

vivek.rao wrote:Man! She has to blackmail this ugly/toothless obnoxious creep with soft weapon to marry him?

Saar he was a biiiiiiiggg CON leader no! An ex-CM, the faithful family dog and the guru to pappu next in line for the throne of dilli. Some are attracted by power or perceived power.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 01 May 2014 23:16

muraliravi, as usual, your sense, sanity and professionalism have come through again.

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 01 May 2014 23:16

Where do these people like BoseChem or Iconoclast get such numbers to make seat projections? Is it really out of their Musharraf? I am about to disable my twitter feed until may 16!

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 01 May 2014 23:16

rohitv wrote:http://news.jagranjunction.com/2014/04/ ... ationship/

Apparently a sealed envelop was sent to media houses yesterday which contained the email/sms exchanges between diggi babu and the rstv news anchor. Dainik Jagaran has posted some of it on its website.

what r chances it is work of BJP ?

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 May 2014 23:17

Mihaylo wrote:
SRoy wrote: With these numbers it is UPA3
How is it UPA3 ?

-M

543 - NDA (250)

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 01 May 2014 23:17

ramana wrote:So Doggy was cheating with another woman on his dying wife also!!!! What credibility does this old foggy have and need to question Sonia's trust in having him mentor Rahulbaba!

Well first of all he is shameless and thick-skinned which is what is required to be a Congressman these days (quite different from my grandpas days).

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 01 May 2014 23:23

SRoy wrote:
543 - NDA (250)

Well it is in the ball-park of what opinion polls have said and what many are predicting on BRF's GJP poll. Only niran and a few others are saying it is going to be 300 or 300+. Even at 250 NDA will be SLC. So will be invited to form Govt. However, it will need allies and "operation remove Modi" will kick in. For Modi's own good he needs to get as close to 272 as he can. But I have to give it to him for stupendous campaign effort. He did everything that is physically possible given the geographical limitations of BJP.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 01 May 2014 23:29

muraliravi, may I ask something to see if I have this right - bosechem (with a decent record of his own) is saying despite the M+Y consolidation enabling the RJD+Cong combine to do quite well - that even now the NDA may be around 205-215 ?

And that even CSDS is still predicting around 195 NDA (or is that BJP) without Bihar/UP even after all the disasters mishaps, mispeaks, mistakes and missed opportunities ?

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 May 2014 23:32

Congis are already on record saying that all combinations are acceptable to them to keep Modi out.

So, NDA at 250 is a lost cause.

R_Kumar · Post by **R_Kumar** » 01 May 2014 23:33

NDTV opinion Poll for remaining 13 seats from Bihar.
RJD+ ->7
BJP+-> 4
JDU+->2

Now 9-phase election has explanation.
http://www.ndtv.com/blog/show/watch-bat ... eststories

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 01 May 2014 23:34

RajeshA wrote:
ANI @ANI_news · 24s
Why are you going into such details, ask KC Tyagi why he said what he said: Sharad Yadav on JDU supporting AAP
It seems Sharad Yadav and Nitish Kumar are going to go their separate ways after the elections.

Begging on different roads ?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 May 2014 23:35

Muraliravi, Need to ask you only.

What will be teh numbers for all regional satraps:

Mamata, JJ, Nitish, Mullhayam, Lalu and Commies anyother Congress mukut?

I think not more than 20 each at first cut.