Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 02 May 2014 21:46

I was looking at 2009 Congress and BJP tally. AP gave the congis 33 seats - 12 more than the next highest which was UP at 21. I really hope they take a huge hit there this time. Problem is, if YSRCP gets most of their votes, that is as good as voting for Congis themselves.

bhavani · Post by **bhavani** » 02 May 2014 21:52

nachiket wrote:I was looking at 2009 Congress and BJP tally. AP gave the congis 33 seats - 12 more than the next highest which was UP at 21. I really hope they take a huge hit there this time. Problem is, if YSRCP gets most of their votes, that is as good as voting for Congis themselves.

Don't worry, This time congress is dead in Seemandhra and even in Telangana they will probably take around 5-6 seats. So in total of 42 seats they might win 6-7 seats.

Sonia Amma Rally in Guntur was a super flop. Major parts of the stands were empty. No body was cheering.

http://deccan-journal.com/content/sonia ... y-big-flop

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 May 2014 22:05

Bhavani, I think after elections Congress in Telangana will become Telangana Congress just like a regional party. It will cut links to INC. This way it will attract "settlers" who become a significant chunk.

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 02 May 2014 22:09

nachiket wrote: Must be wrong info. Cong can easily get to 100, probably more. Look at muraliravi's numbers. It has too much of a presence across the country especially in areas where BJP has no local strength. BJP won't make a serious assessment like that.

nachiketji, with due respect to muraliravi (I understand why he wants to be conservative), these numbers (BJP 210-240 and Cong <= 85) are also predicted in Delhi and Mumbai betting markets. People have bet several thousand crores on those numbers and they dont do it vacuum either. They have their own exit polls and they cant fix elections like cricket.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 May 2014 22:22

sivab wrote:
nachiket wrote: Must be wrong info. Cong can easily get to 100, probably more. Look at muraliravi's numbers. It has too much of a presence across the country especially in areas where BJP has no local strength. BJP won't make a serious assessment like that.
nachiketji, with due respect to muraliravi (I understand why he wants to be conservative), these numbers (BJP 210-240 and Cong <= 85) are also predicted in Delhi and Mumbai betting markets. People have bet several thousand crores on those numbers and they dont do it vacuum either. They have their own exit polls and they cant fix elections like cricket.

I vividly remember how many of these people lost a fortune in 2004 after betting and their sources gave BJP a landslide.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 02 May 2014 22:24

look at the seats, some of them are no wins put there. BJP may still reach that number, but not with the seats mentioned. Only thing I can say, it is a cooked up report.

vic · Post by **vic** » 02 May 2014 22:26

BJP 240 NDA 320

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 02 May 2014 22:38

What is disconcerting is that Subby Swamy is the only BJP leader who raises this issue of EVM hacking and he is comparatively minor player. NM or AS has not once said anything about EVM fraud on twitter despite being tagged in so many tweets on this subject. Something is definitely cooking...

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 22:43

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 1h

Is UPA scrambling to fill in key posts as an insurance policy if it goes out of power? #AppointmentHaste

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 1h

This is the first acceptance by Congress party that they are going out of power: Sudhanshu Trivedi #AppointmentHaste

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 1h

What the UPA is doing is immoral and begs credibility: TSR Subramaniam #AppointmentHaste

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 May 2014 22:54

The big corporate houses are getting ready with moneybags. No matter what happens, if NDA crosses 230 then there will be rupee raining on some regional satraps to fall in line and make sure that NaMo can govern uninterrupted for the next five years. The big guns can't afford to have aya-ram, gaya-ram for another five years.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 02 May 2014 22:54

bhavani wrote:
nachiket wrote:I was looking at 2009 Congress and BJP tally. AP gave the congis 33 seats - 12 more than the next highest which was UP at 21. I really hope they take a huge hit there this time. Problem is, if YSRCP gets most of their votes, that is as good as voting for Congis themselves.
Don't worry, This time congress is dead in Seemandhra and even in Telangana they will probably take around 5-6 seats. So in total of 42 seats they might win 6-7 seats.

Yes, I expect them to take a big hit to their tally as well. Only problem is the one I mentioned above, most of the congi votes will go to YCP in Seemandhra and TRS in Telangana. After elections, if Cong+Turd front seems possible, TRS may join them. And Jagan is an EJ which means he's as bad as the Congress.

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 02 May 2014 23:12

I think, there is too much dhoti shivering going on.
As per debate on timesnow day before yesterday, there is clear indication Patnaik is already been contacted and seems to be in dharmic fold.
I personally feel Jaya wont have much issue either but didi would be tough nut to crack.
This goes for the parties is double digit.
Maya wont show resistence either if she got call. JMM will go with money. INLD will be in NDA team. Ajit Singh of RLD if he wins any seat will wagging his tail toward BJP.
Now regarding the other smaller parties or independents, they will be going with whoever threw bones to them. Candidates sell or mortgage properties to generate dough for elections. Winner will be looking to cover the cost asap. BJP being the largest party will get the first call to form govt. If need arises I have full faith in AS and AJ already have strategy to buy over free lancers.
It will be modi government on May -16 but stability depends on NDAs number above or below 272.

disha · Post by **disha** » 02 May 2014 23:19

Posted the same in NaMo thread ...

I do not understand why the dhoti shivering (except Dilbu should always dhoti shiver ...)!!

In past 2 days:

1. NaMo takes a selfie with lotus and it becomes one of the largest retweets.

2. Gives a 20 min. impromptu press conference and going against maa-beta sarkar and becomes the largest news on *the* election day!

3. CongIs gleefully jump up like a bunch of baboons, files complains, EC overreacts and joins CongIs and CongIs are backpedaling furiously

4. Gujju bolis does yawn and files FIR and does another yawn and says that the impromptu conference was done outside of restricted zone so no cognizable case, showing up EC as bunch of baboons err ConGis.

5. Some in BRF go into full-fledged dhoti-shivering.

6. Modi gives interview and is candid and honest and says nothing wrong in a beti fighting for her mai-bhai and inspite of pink-chaddi's vicious and vituperous campaign Namo will not say anything against her.

7. Prasaar Bharati to *not* show Modi in good light - cuts this (and other) sections out.

8. News leak out, becomes a grist and just in front of a pack of baboons err Journos, pink-chaddi opens her mouth and inserts foot. Shows Modi in even better light and herself and bet-Maa-damaad-beti (RSVP) in a very very bad light. For what? For being told pink-chaddi is her own mom's daughter?

9. Prasaar bharti CEO admits in *writing* that he sucks his own thumb only and the rest is decided by the young and dynamic Manish Tiwari who goes to the hospital for heart troubles. Prasaar bharti CEO admits that he is sucking thumb only. Showing up the whole bunch of maa-beta sarkar as bunch of baboons err CongIs

10. And we are left here dhoti-shivering only.

Moi dhoti is shivering only in exhilaration. Such an amazing take down of the RSVP never done in history ... and no BRF is *NOT* ahead of curve - it is *BEHIND* curve., just look at the crowds Sonia Amma got in Telangana and SA and look at the love shown to NaMo in Vizag on heavy downpour.

And there is 14 more days to go for the D-Day and moi dhoti is in full-shiver mode - it will be exhilarating to watch the take down of baboons err Congress

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 02 May 2014 23:21

atamjeetsingh wrote:I think, there is too much dhoti shivering going on.
As per debate on timesnow day before yesterday, there is clear indication Patnaik is already been contacted and seems to be in dharmic fold.
I personally feel Jaya wont have much issue either but didi would be tough nut to crack.

Now regarding the other smaller parties or independents, they will be going with whoever threw bones to them. Candidates sell or mortgage properties to generate dough for elections. Winner will be looking to cover the cost asap.

If they can get Jaya and Patnaik, they won't need Didi. They can make up the rest from the independents and small parties. Best not to have Didi in the govt. She's completely unpredictable and almost certain to be a nuisance to any alliance she is in.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 23:23

Anyway did has an election dues in 1-3 years (Not sure) and her base has quite a big chunk of Muslims. She will not join NDA at least not formally.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 02 May 2014 23:52

In the LS elections 2009, there were total of 18 MPs who are available for any winning team(List given below). It is safe to assume that in 2014 we may have around 15 MP's who will be available to NaMo led NDA.
================================================
Independent 9
Assam United Democratic Front 1
Asom Gana Parisad 1
Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) 1
Nagaland Peoples Front 1
Haryana Janhit Congress (BL) 1
Bodaland Peoples Front 1
Swabhimani Paksha 1
Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi 1
Sikkim Democratic Front 1

Total = 18
=====================================================
Case 1:
Let us start from the number given by muraliravi for NDA and see how NaMo can form a Govt.
BJP ~ 190, Pre-poll NDA 225-235

In order to get 273, we need 38 to 48 seats

So we are looking at 240-250 seats for NDA if we add 15 from "floaters"
If JJ comes with 20 seats we are looking at 260-270 for NDA. Pretty close to finishing line.
Either BJD or TRS or some other party (NCP?) will take it over 272.
===============================================================================
Case 2: If BJP gets 200. I am keeping the same number for NDA allies 35-45. NDA will be 235-245
Add 15 independents
NDA = 250-260
Just JJ will be enough to form a Govt.
===============================================================================
Case 3: If BJP get 220 & NDA gets same number for allies and 15 from Independents means BJP will not require any post poll allies!!!

So unless BJP falls below 190, I do not see any alternative to NaMo led Govt.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 03 May 2014 00:17

Vamsee wrote:In the LS elections 2009, there were total of 18 MPs who are available for any winning team(List given below). It is safe to assume that in 2014 we may have around 15 MP's who will be available to NaMo led NDA.
================================================
Independent 9
Assam United Democratic Front 1
Asom Gana Parisad 1
Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) 1
Nagaland Peoples Front 1
Haryana Janhit Congress (BL) 1
Bodaland Peoples Front 1
Swabhimani Paksha 1
Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi 1
Sikkim Democratic Front 1

Total = 18

Vamsee,

There are currently only 7 independents in LS, i guess 2 were defeated in by elections etc..

1 Khan,Shri Hassan Ladakh(Jammu and Kashmir )
2 Kora,Shri Madhu Singhbhum(Jharkhand )
3 Mandal,Dr. Tarun Jaynagar(West Bengal ) -
4 Mandlik,Shri Sadashivrao Dadoba Kolhapur(Maharashtra )
5 Namdhari,Shri Inder Singh Chatra(Jharkhand )
6 Putul Kumari,Smt. Banka(Bihar )
7 Yadav,Shri Om Prakash Siwan(Bihar )

of these, only Hassan Khan may win again and that too if he is contesting which I doubt. In all probability all 7 seats will go to mainstream parties which are already part of all the calculations we have done. The only independents this time I see who can grab seats are Ajay Kumar from Jamshedpur and very low chance of Meena or his representative from Rajasthan. So 99% it will be only 1 Independent and he will support BJP.

AUDF will win 2 seats, but will never ever support BJP and BJP will also never ever take support from them. It is a pure bangladeshi muslims party

AGP will get a big 0

JVM and NPF together may win 3 seats and will support NDA

HJC, Bodo, Swabhimani and Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi are extremely unlikely to open their account. HJC may, but even so it falls within our error margin of Haryana numbers for BJP

SDF will win 1 and support BJP.

So the 18 drops to 5 and yes these 5 will support NDA. Sorry to pour water on your calcs, but this is the reality

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 03 May 2014 00:28

muraliravi,

Thanks for the corrections.

My basic focus was on single digit parties in 2009 (cumulatively there are 79 seats!!!) . The below is the list. What is your reading regarding them in 2014?
Individually they may look insignificant, but cumulatively there are 79 seats in 2009. So it is a big number and not much is known about them (ignoring some parties like NCP/DMK/TDP etc).
Can you give your thoughts on below list?
======================================================================================================
Independent 9 (You have said that it was reduced to 7)
Nationalist Congress Party 9
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 9
Telugu Desam 6
Rashtriya Lok Dal 5
Communist Party Of India 4
Rashtriya Janata Dal 4
Shiromani Akali Dal 4
Janata Dal (Secular) 3
Jammu & Kashmir National Conference 3
Telangana Rashtra Samithi 2
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha 2
Revolutionary Socialist Party 2
All India Forward Bloc 2
Muslim League Kerala State Committee 2
Assam United Democratic Front 1
Asom Gana Parisad 1
Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 1
Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) 1
Nagaland Peoples Front 1
Haryana Janhit Congress (BL) 1
Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi 1
Bodaland Peoples Front 1
Swabhimani Paksha 1
Kerala Congress(M) 1
All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimoon 1
Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi 1
Sikkim Democratic Front 1

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 03 May 2014 00:58

Out of the above list, the below would never join BJP. Are there any more such parties?
===================================
Communist Party Of India 4
Rashtriya Janata Dal 4
Revolutionary Socialist Party 2
All India Forward Bloc 2
Muslim League Kerala State Committee 2
Assam United Democratic Front 1
All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimoon 1

Total = 16

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 03 May 2014 01:08

Vamsee wrote:Out of the above list, the below would never join BJP. Are there any more such parties?
===================================
Communist Party Of India 4
Rashtriya Janata Dal 4
Revolutionary Socialist Party 2
All India Forward Bloc 2
Muslim League Kerala State Committee 2
Assam United Democratic Front 1
All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimoon 1

Total = 16

From your bigger list, RLD and NCP are in UPA. Rule them out.
ADMK will be in double digits this time (probably).
TDP, SAD and MDMK are already in NDA.
Nat. Conference will not join NDA.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 03 May 2014 01:15

ADMK and BJD are the parties to watch out for. ADMK should not get enough to join turd front. We are finally seeing the first election where the electorate can distinguish between local/national elections and vote accordingly.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 03 May 2014 01:20

Vamsee

It is better to make a list of such parties with their projected seats this time. You can pull those from everyone's post on that in this forum and put up a consensus number or average. Then remove those parties who are already part of NDA and remove ones that will will never come with NDA. Then remove parties in UPA that will never come with NDA. NCP, RJD are all parties that can do business with NDA or even be broken. After all this vetting, you will reach a list of small parties that can support NDA or be broken if they are hostile.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 03 May 2014 01:29

vamsee, add AIUDF. it's the BD's in assam party.

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 03 May 2014 01:33

We need somebody like Edgar Hoover to shake down some parties and leaders for the sake of country for atleast 10 to 15 years. Then hopefully the muck will be cleared

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 03 May 2014 01:47

Nijalingappa wrote:We need somebody like Edgar Hoover to shake down some parties and leaders for the sake of country for atleast 10 to 15 years. Then hopefully the muck will be cleared

Run off elections on each seat or instant run off is the only way

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 03 May 2014 02:09

The only parties one could think of supporting NDA due to ideological, worldview, historical proximity or lack of conflict of interest, not already in pre-poll NDA are

- INLD (4), JVM-P (2), MNS (1), AGP (0), SDF (1)

Together these may win around 8 seats
Next group readily available due to small size and need to remain relevant would be

- KC-M (1), JDS (2), PDP (2)

Together these may win around 5 seats
Next group available may be of mercurial local satraps with whom BJP may need to do some tough bargaining

- BJD (11), TRS (8), AIADMK (18), DMK (5), BSP (7)

Together these may win around 49 seats
Next group BJP may not want to approach would be of parties heavily dependent on their outreach to Muslims and Christians

- AITC (25), YSRCP (7)

Together these may win around 32 seats
Next group may be of regional secular adversaries

- RJD (5), JDU (3), SP (15), NC (1)

Together these may win around 24 seats
Next group would be of ideological adversaries

- AIUDF (3), AIMIM (1), IUML (2), INC (75), Communists (16)

Together these may win around 97 seats

Together these make up 216 seats. It's possible NaMo may take INLD, JVMP, MNS, SDF under the NDA tent.

Though I personally don't think NaMo would be needing any of these parties to prop up his govt. He would be having a very comfortable lead and buffer. For Constitutional Amendments, these parties may still have their relevance.

That's how the NDA figure many quoting hovers around 320!

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 03 May 2014 03:18

Ok. I will start with all non-BJP, non-Congress parties.
Right now I have estimates given by muraliravi, RamaY and RajeshA (If you guys want to predict *missing* numbers from below image, please feel free and I will update them.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 03 May 2014 03:37

Update 1:
The existing NDA allies

Those who would not join NDA

Leftover

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 03 May 2014 03:55

From the above list of left over guys, I tried to make "undesirables" list.
Please let me know if you want me to include/exclude anyone.
Also people can weigh-in on the list of "desirable" partners

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 03 May 2014 04:12

Arnab asked, paraphrasing "Will BJP Government allow Prasar Bharati to be independent".There was no "if"

I guess it is an open knowledge that BJP is forming the government.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 03 May 2014 04:26

harbans wrote:What if on May 16th Modi has 'Arjuna'itis' and gives an emotional speech in which he says "Advani Ji ke ungli pakad ke mein yaha tak pahoocha. Unse badaa kabhi nahee ho sakta main. Advani Ji ko Pradhan Mantri Pad par pehla haq hai". And then he gives it all to Advani till 2017 or something. What happens then?

Some of the votebank politics is too complex to follow, but I can tell you one thing for sure: Arjunitis is the LAST thing Modi will have. This is because for the past several years he has had a severe case of restless Vivekanaditis. Modi is a man on a mission, a mission which started years ago. It is not starting on May 16th. If he ever had an Arjuna moment, it would have been just when he entered politics. And certainly not after be became CM of Gujarat.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 May 2014 04:36

Vamsee, One suggestion. Add another column the average of the three estimates to give the consensus estimates. Also if you rename the columns to twitter ids or some other mnemonic you can tweet them.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 03 May 2014 04:38

I don't think it comes to this.

But nothing wrong in making plan C.

I think NDA should take all corruption guys instead of secularism guys. Then go with a 1yr time bound SC prosecution of all corruption cases.

If these guys are clean then they will appreciate Modi clearing their names permanently. If not Modi can build more trustworthy leaders in those parties.

Secular group is a long term project.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 May 2014 04:41

Sounds Chankian!

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 03 May 2014 04:49

ramana garu,

One thing that muraliravi has said is very true. Congress is very strongly entrenched party and BJP wasted last 10 years.
So even if there is a strong Modi wave, it may not fully translate into huge number of seats.
I am trying to solve the muraliravi's scenario (BJP-190) without NaMo making too many compromises.

This is still work in progress. Once there is some progress, I will blog & tweet with twitter id's.

Instead of simply saying NDA allies will get X seats and third front will get Y seats, I am trying to go down to the party level.
Once that is done, we can arrange those parties in the order of "desirability"
Once that is done we will know what are the minimum compromises that NaMo will have to make to form NDA Govt.

I hope muraliravi, RamaY & RajeshA will give the number of seats they are expecting for pre-poll NDA partners(non-BJP)
(In my scenario With BJP at 190 and allies at 37, We still need 46 seats to form Govt)

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 03 May 2014 05:00

If anyone else also wants to participate in this, I will include their names as well. But please enter your estimates in the following sequence

Existing NDA allies (2009 seats)
==============
Party 2009
Shiv Sena 11
Telugu Desam 6
Shiromani Akali Dal 4
Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 1
Nagaland Peoples Front 1
Haryana Janhit Congress (BL) 1
Swabhimani Paksha 1
Kerala Congress(M) 1
MNS
Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam 0
Pattali Makkal Katchi 0

The parties unlikely to join NDA (you can ignore projections for this section if you want to)
========================
Communist Party Of India (MARXIST) 16
Communist Party Of India 4
Rashtriya Janata Dal 4
Revolutionary Socialist Party 2
All India Forward Bloc 2
Muslim League Kerala State Committee 2
Assam United Democratic Front 1
All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimoon 1
AAP 0

undesirables
==========
Samajwadi Party 23
Bahujan Samaj Party 21
Janata Dal (United) 20
All India Trinamool Congress 19
Nationalist Congress Party 9
Dravida Munetra Kazhagam 18
Jammu & Kashmir National Conference 3
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha 2
Asom Gana Parisad 1
YSRCP 0
PDP 0

Leftover (this is very important. Please project for these guys)
================================================

Biju Janata Dal 14
Independent 9
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 9
Rashtriya Lok Dal 5
Janata Dal (Secular) 3
Telangana Rashtra Samithi 2
Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) 1
Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi 1
Bodaland Peoples Front 1
Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi 1
Sikkim Democratic Front 1
==================================
Any other party (specify)

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 03 May 2014 05:02

I think BJP wasted the last decade because of not projecting modi ahead... lk-ji would still spring and jump with his khakhi trousers and do a chaplin dance, if the party says, become PM. there is a big risk in having people greater than 70 years old to mess up anything organizationally.

if bjp wants better future, then should seriously restrict their membership <70 year olds, and start working with grass roots, bananas, and chai wala politics. only way to get up to speak against kangrez is work at really low level, and make their presence local.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 03 May 2014 06:34

Forget Patil, Niran, Muraliravi, KLPD etc...all fake fellows...correct predictions are here only....

Reliable Bihar predictions

Dhoti, angavastram, yajnopavit all shivering...

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 03 May 2014 09:07

Some thing is not right in Bihar. I feel that the fact the Niku is no longer the local leader and Sushil Modi was not the option so the TINA effect will divert votes to RJD. Voters are feeling that if RJD is not made strong in LS then there are chances that NDA will pull down BJP local govt and Bihar will be in a limbo! What are the predictions for Bihar for BJP and RJD and CONGI? Can this loss be made up in South or East?

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 03 May 2014 09:14

^Chill man, nothing is gonna happen. All these rumors are products of a desperate congi combine doing their best to demoralize the Dharmic forces. It embarrassing that fall for this nonsense so easily. Why are we so filled with self-doubt? We need stronger conviction and our faith needs to be firm. Besides, if Lalu can't get his wife and daughter to win, what the hell is he gonna do for the rest of the seats?

On average, opinion polls showed BJP getting 20+ in Bihar, but later on that was revised upwards by most experts and by the BJP's internal polls as well.

You have the choice of believing the enemy and being hysterical, or you can hold firm in your conviction and show courage in the face of enemy psyops.