Mort Walker wrote:
Good analysis. The AAP damages INC in some states and the BJP in other states. I think better than CSDS to determine trends is to look at the crowd turnout at the Bharat Vijay rallies particularly in UP & Bihar.
The effect of these rallies are here in the CSDS march tracker on UP
BJP 36% (42-50)
SP 22% (11-17)
BSP 18% (10-16)
Cong+RLD 16% (4-8)
Rajeev karandikar who does the vote share to seat share conversion is getting even worse. I really doubt the seat tally. Compared to Jan, BJP had dipped 2% in Feb and has stayed there. SP has picked up marginally and gone ahead of the BSP. But BJP's seat tally has improved even more. Something is fishy.