Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

gandharva
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gandharva » 04 Apr 2014 20:34

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Last edited by gandharva on 04 Apr 2014 20:37, edited 1 time in total.

muraliravi
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 04 Apr 2014 20:36

nageshks wrote:
Malayappan wrote:nageshks might find this interesting! Guess it is not yet posted!

Sweeping Mood for poriborton

That is on Upper Assam.


Thanks, Malayappan-ji. Out of the five seats going to polls on 7, only 1 is certain for the Congress (Kaliabor) and one more is slightly pro-Congress (Dibrugarh). 3 more (Tezpur, Jorhat and Lakhimpur) are in the toss up category, with Lakhimpur being slightly pro-BJP. We shall know soon enough, I guess.


Nagesh ji,

Follow 5forty3, his exit poll on all 4 states was bang on. The best exit poll provided by any agency. Even his prepoll was good, but his exit polls had 90% correlation with the actual results. He was the only one to predict how BJP screwed up in Chhattisgarh in Phase 1 and how they recovered in Phase 2.

5forty3 has partnered with CRI and will now have podcast on all voting days and have updated by the hour.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby fanne » 04 Apr 2014 20:45

SagarAg wrote:
muraliravi wrote:
Niran saab,

How is the jatav vote, are they still with BSP?

jatav bahul village UP
This was a superb episode of prime time. Every house in the village had respective flag of party they are supporting, amazing. Ravish tells in middile how BJP have made in roads in jatav community :)


I heard the whole episode (freeking 45 minutes), I did not hear the part where BJP makes inroad into Jatavs. Can you please point the time.
TIW
f

pankajs
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 04 Apr 2014 20:48

Swapan on CNN-IBN > Modi now started asking for 300 seats.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby archan » 04 Apr 2014 20:49

^ he is sounding more and more confident. Hope he has good reasons for that, and niran ji is getting correct feelers.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 04 Apr 2014 20:51

^^ Is it just me that thinks Mayawati can still spring a surprise by stitching a Dali+Muslim+25-30% brahmin vote to topple BJP'c cart in UP and thereby dent their tally severely.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 04 Apr 2014 20:53

NDTV All India numbers will start @ 9:30 PM.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby fanne » 04 Apr 2014 20:57

I hope soo too!!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanjay » 04 Apr 2014 21:03

What has 5forty3 predicted for this election at this stage ?

I can't seem to find one on his site.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SagarAg » 04 Apr 2014 21:07

fanne wrote:
I heard the whole episode (freeking 45 minutes), I did not hear the part where BJP makes inroad into Jatavs. Can you please point the time.
TIW
f

fanne ji, check out from 35:00 :) He said it indirectly.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 04 Apr 2014 21:14

Robert Vadra equals land mafia, says BJP's Shivraj Singh Chouhan
http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/e ... eststories

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SwamyG » 04 Apr 2014 21:17

RajeshA wrote:.

Congress is also finished in Seemandhra and Tamil Nadu in the South.

What do you mean finished in TN? I thought they were finished in the 60s/70s. It has all be the SDRE Dravidian parties onlee. Congress (and BJP) just jump on the bandwagon for seats.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krishnan » 04 Apr 2014 21:18

not fully finished , they are still very active

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SwamyG » 04 Apr 2014 21:20

ramana wrote:Explains the Shahi Imam Bhukari's rant against Muslims voting for BSP!!!


Now that he is fully immersed in poliitcs is it OK to attack him politically! Hope he wont claim religious figure immunity.

I like the development, now BJP can openly ask for Hindu votes no? And it is time for BJP to paint Congress is not secular and totally communal.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 04 Apr 2014 21:22

ShivrajSingh Chouhan ‏@ChouhanShivraj 47m

One can't even blame the PM as there was always a super PM and super super PM.The charge sheet released by BJP amply brings out the facts.
ShivrajSingh Chouhan ‏@ChouhanShivraj 53m

Who is honest and who is corrupt, who is efficient and who is callous, who delivers and who makes only false promises, Is it not apparent.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 04 Apr 2014 21:30

nageshks ji,

Sachin Reddy ‏@snsachinnandu 8h
#GSR upgrades BJP prospectus in Assam! Givs chancs in Gauhati Nowgong Silchar Kaliabor Dhubri Jorhat Dibrugarh Mongoldoi Lakhimpur & Tezpur!

Don't know what to make of it, but this #GSR seems to be highly respected by Sachin Reddy.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 04 Apr 2014 21:34

ramana wrote:Now that he is fully immersed in poliitcs is it OK to attack him politically! Hope he wont claim religious figure immunity.


Well Mullah per se can be considered as a political post as the sermons are often political in nature.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Supratik » 04 Apr 2014 21:50

This Shahi Imam business is nothing new. INC going to the Imam before elections for endorsement has been going on since IG days.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby bhargava » 04 Apr 2014 22:05

AndiTV says BJP getting 53 in UP

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gandharva » 04 Apr 2014 22:09

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 04 Apr 2014 22:22

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mort Walker » 04 Apr 2014 22:23

pankajs wrote:Swapan on CNN-IBN > Modi now started asking for 300 seats.


It seems his sights are set on a 2/3 majority in parliament for an NDA govt. If true, this will bring unprecedented sweeping change not just in India, but world wide. Time to think big.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 04 Apr 2014 22:24

RajeshA wrote:nageshks ji,

Sachin Reddy ‏@snsachinnandu 8h
#GSR upgrades BJP prospectus in Assam! Givs chancs in Gauhati Nowgong Silchar Kaliabor Dhubri Jorhat Dibrugarh Mongoldoi Lakhimpur & Tezpur!

Don't know what to make of it, but this #GSR seems to be highly respected by Sachin Reddy.


Dhubri and Kaliabor are alomost ruled out. Dhubri has 65-70% Muslims, and Kaliabor is Tarun Gogoi's seat (believe me, he won't lose). Others are possible.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby harbans » 04 Apr 2014 22:25

Cobra post article. Ashish Ketan is a LS candidate from AAP!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vishvak » 04 Apr 2014 22:41

This 'secul vote' should nomenclature must be immediately challenged in courts. Who decides this and who can take any legitimacy away from normal voters.

If EC can not do it by law then how can SoniaG - by whose authority?

Shows twisted minds of pseudo secular vote bankers very clearly.

+100 to someone who said BJP/NDA must also start working for next elections. Reminds of Narendra or Swamy Vivekaanand ji who advised Indians to not rest till goal is reached.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 04 Apr 2014 22:52

vishvak wrote:This 'secul vote' should nomenclature must be immediately challenged in courts. Who decides this and who can take any legitimacy away from normal voters.


That is like shooting in the foot for Bharatiyas.
Let sik-uh-lisam be what it is and slowly free majority bharatiyas from that cob-web.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby harbans » 04 Apr 2014 23:00

I keep saying, the best way is to replace secular with Dharmic (not Hindu). Don't change everything. Just that. Handle the effects for a few months. Then evolve slowly to banning cow slaughter, bringing Yoga into mainstream, opening Dharmic, Sanskrit Shiksha kendras/ universities (all inherently and truly secular endeavours). Fact is there is a huge list of Dharmic initiatives that can be overtly taken that will satisfy both the true secular as well as many aspects of pristine Hindutva objectives. But needs a 320-350 strength plus delivery on development fronts to get solid backing and support to initiate that without much ado. But can be done? Yes sure!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 04 Apr 2014 23:16

harbans wrote:I keep saying, the best way is to replace secular with Dharmic (not Hindu). Don't change everything. Just that. Handle the effects for a few months. Then evolve slowly to banning cow slaughter, bringing Yoga into mainstream, opening Dharmic, Sanskrit Shiksha kendras/ universities (all inherently and truly secular endeavours). Fact is there is a huge list of Dharmic initiatives that can be overtly taken that will satisfy both the true secular as well as many aspects of pristine Hindutva objectives. But needs a 320-350 strength plus delivery on development fronts to get solid backing and support to initiate that without much ado. But can be done? Yes sure!


Harbans ji,

I will repeat again, the only true long term method to ensure our survival is to start active reconversion. There is no point ignoring or dilly dallying on that. On war footing, we should prepare dedicated Hindu missionaries and educate them on all religions and teach them how to convince and convert christians and muslims in India slowly back to Hinduism. It will not be easy or fast. But in the long run, it will yield us unprecedented gains. The GOI can help by 1st freeing temples from Government control so that there is no lack of funds for hindu orgs to start this effort. Approx 1 Lakh preachers need to be trained across the nation with 50:50 Men/Women ratio. They need to be trained in psychology/ religion etc..

Orgs like VHP/Arya Samaj/RSS can help in this. 1st thing is to strengthen and create our own hindu institution within 2 years. There can be one national level trust which handles most major temples of india. They can allocate a portion of the funds (there wont be any shortage since govt would have freed hindu temples by then) to this reconversion cause and train 1 lakh people in 2-3 years. They can use their funds for their other causes (maintaining temples, priest salaries, free education to poor hindu children, hindu widow support etc..). Basically create a pure hindu NGO with lots of funds that will be looked at with respect by the poor in the hindu society. They should scout for talented motivated youth who can serve the reconversion agenda.

In 2 years, the youth should be taught all aspects about hinduism/islam and X-tianity. What are the ways to reconvert (philosophical methods for middle class working muslims/x-tians, social service and financial help for people who became x-tians because of economic distress). In fact this trust should give special focus and free education to all christians who have converted recently (last 50 years) due to economic reasons.

But there should be one cardinal rule, NEVER ABUSE MUSLIMS/X-TIANS in this process, the only way we can reconvert them back is through love and free discourse. I am not referring to appeasement of muslims involved in terror, i am talking about reconversion process. You are never going to reconvert Abdul by telling him Allah is fake on day 1 of your discourse with him.

This is a pure private citizen/hindu ngo effort. The ONLY help govt can do is by freeing temples from government control.
Last edited by muraliravi on 04 Apr 2014 23:22, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 04 Apr 2014 23:22

harbans wrote:I keep saying, the best way is to replace secular with Dharmic (not Hindu). Don't change everything. Just that. Handle the effects for a few months. Then evolve slowly to banning cow slaughter, bringing Yoga into mainstream, opening Dharmic, Sanskrit Shiksha kendras/ universities (all inherently and truly secular endeavours). Fact is there is a huge list of Dharmic initiatives that can be overtly taken that will satisfy both the true secular as well as many aspects of pristine Hindutva objectives. But needs a 320-350 strength plus delivery on development fronts to get solid backing and support to initiate that without much ado. But can be done? Yes sure!


exactly... we need to cure dhimmified Indians slowly

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby harbans » 04 Apr 2014 23:41

Murali ji, i agree we have no option left but to bring back tens of millions into the Dharmic fold. That happens only when this bogey of misinterpretation of 'secularism' is put to a full stop and the strong arm of the law catches up with those that disrespect the provisions. A Bukhari with 65 NB warrants seen with a cop giving a TV presser to vote Cong is hard to watch. Modi this election is doing one major service to Dharma..and that is redefining the Nehruvian interpretation of 'Secular' which has come to mean Islamic appeasement. Few have noticed that this will be a major shift if he actually gets to power and enforces with State muscle this version. A Bukhari even might land in jail after due process of the law. If a Shankaracharya could land up in one, why is this fellow not in the cooler? That kind of change we certainly will see with Modi, and that is a source of some hope for many of us who feel helpless as the Nehruvian version of secularism gets more and more bizarre by the day. Till what extent he can change that remains to be seen.

Secondly it would be difficult to garner large sections immediately into a Hindu fold. It would/may be prudent to allow them to identify with Dharma, Dharmic principles (have enunciated that in my blog) and then when they identify their inner nature with these principles lead them to make a choice amongst the various margs that Hindu/ dharma have to offer. We tend to skip simple steps in the midst to reach our final destinations. But the establishment of these steps is key to success. As an example brazenly putting reconquisita of Ayodya, Nathura, Art 370, UCC in the manifesto as must do will cause recoil. But working on

1. Changing the definition of Secularism
2. Replacing Dharma with Secularism in Constn
3. Getting Dharmic thought mainstream to minorities.
4. Curbing illegal immigration and conversion funds.
5. Openly advocating Dharmic practises of Yoga, meditation, Ayurveda..
6. Getting minorities to proudly declare themselves Dharmic

Point being that instead of direct quantum change which will evoke possibly violent reactions, small changes with major backend effects that soften/cushion the whole process keep both stability essential for development which by itself solves many issues, but also allows easier access back to the Dharmic fold for the minorities.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 04 Apr 2014 23:50

^^^ overall I agree, in 2-3 years, the whole discourse needs to change 1st. Maybe in those 2-3 years, the Hindu NGO's can focus on 1st grooming that 1 Lakh preachers who will be needed in the next stage. Because, it is not easy to train a preacher who is capable of converting someone from religion x to y.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby jamwal » 04 Apr 2014 23:57

There is nothing wrong with hating a religion or an ideology. Just don't hate the people who were just born in to it.
I hate Islam, but I don't hate people like APJAK Azad.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby harbans » 05 Apr 2014 00:03

Jamwal ji absolutely right, have said this n times it's always the doctrine. Everything is a clash of doctrine. It requires evolution to comprehend that. It's doctrine that traps. Yet when people become so messed with doctrine and it is an impossibility to wean them out, then only a MB occurs. But the effort and chance to change must be given. Modi is the right step in that direction.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Suraj » 05 Apr 2014 00:05

I'd like to remind everyone that this is one of the election threads. Please stay on the topic. There are other threads and forums for some of the matters being discussed in the last few posts.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 05 Apr 2014 00:19

Harbans and Jamwal sir, that is why i specifically said dont hate muslims/x-tians (u can hate islam/christianity)

Anyway back to elections.

NDTV Hansa Survey is showing BJP in UP at 53 seats (more than what they got in 1998 with their best tally of 57 which included the 5 seats in Uttarakhand) and 38% vote share which will be their highest in history.

I am just a little too jittery, too many eggs in one basket called Uttar Pradesh

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby panduranghari » 05 Apr 2014 00:22

Mort Walker wrote:
pankajs wrote:Swapan on CNN-IBN > Modi now started asking for 300 seats.


It seems his sights are set on a 2/3 majority in parliament for an NDA govt. If true, this will bring unprecedented sweeping change not just in India, but world wide. Time to think big.


Time to hold breath and pray to Narayana( not Rao Saheb).

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby fanne » 05 Apr 2014 00:25

In many states, there is momentum effect - BJP is only going to gain. The seat distribution has been +ve instead of -ve (that could have been one factor that would have stopped them). SO more seats, not less, specially in Bihar/UP. Watch out for secular tactical voting, that is the last wild card.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 05 Apr 2014 01:10

fanne wrote:In many states, there is momentum effect - BJP is only going to gain. The seat distribution has been +ve instead of -ve (that could have been one factor that would have stopped them). SO more seats, not less, specially in Bihar/UP. Watch out for secular tactical voting, that is the last wild card.


Fanne Sir,

I am not worried about Secular voting at all. Here is the reason. Secular voting was quite high in 1998 also. As long as BJP's vote share is in the mid 30's in UP, no amount of secular voting can stop them from crossing 40 seats at a minimum. In 1999, their performance in UP cam down simply because their vote share came down from 36% in 1998 to 27% in 1999. In 1996 it was 33%. Now there is an outside chance that in 1996 secular vote was low, because they did not expect BJP to do so well (even though they actually did well in 1991 itself, which forces me to believe that in 1996 itself secular vote was in very high proportions), but in 1998, they voted in leaps and bounds in their hope of stopping BJP. But once BJP is above 32-33%, their chance of stopping BJP in a 4 way race declines drastically. They may have gotten smarter in tactical voting (they were always tactical) which may enable them to stop BJP from converting Votes to seats, but whatever they try, at 35%, BJP is well ahead in the game.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby fanne » 05 Apr 2014 01:16

Momentum effect may take that % higher. I believe they may be crossing their high of 36%. a 1% increase may translate into increase of 5 seats.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SBajwa » 05 Apr 2014 01:33

by Muraliravi
I will repeat again, the only true long term method to ensure our survival is to start active reconversion. There is no point ignoring or dilly dallying on that. On war footing, we should prepare dedicated Hindu missionaries and educate them on all religions and teach them how to convince and convert christians and muslims in India slowly back to Hinduism. It will not be easy or fast. But in the long run, it will yield us unprecedented gains. The GOI can help by 1st freeing temples from Government control so that there is no lack of funds for hindu orgs to start this effort. Approx 1 Lakh preachers need to be trained across the nation with 50:50 Men/Women ratio. They need to be trained in psychology/ religion etc..


Before converting we need to

1. Provide Security to the people from their religions leaders (Imams,Bishops) i.e. FATWAS.
2. Which means that police needs to enforce the law where a threatening fatwa to kill a converted person is not allowed.

For converting we need to

1. Show them the futility of keeping their 50% of the force at home if they convert then their women will work, etc.
2. We need to take care of Shazia Ilmi type (leeches of democracy to enforce islamic slavery in future).


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