Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

krishnan
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krishnan » 15 May 2014 07:31

mamta ‏@mamtan14 7m

“@airnewsalerts: Election Commission bans victory processions in UP tomorrow.” Long nose behaving like jealous woman

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby johneeG » 15 May 2014 08:00

SwamyG wrote:What does Su.Swamy mean by "Constitutional Amendment", on Arnab's show? People are running scared shit :-)


:mrgreen: I think the strategy will be: everyone is allowed to come, and everyone can get a good deal. However, the grand strategy or big picture will be decided by the lotus leadership. And despite all the nautanki, even Mamtha dhidhi may come around giving issue based support.
As far as I understand, 2/3rd majority is needed for constitutional amendments. 540/3=180*2=360. So, 360 are needed. Thats means if NDA is around 330 mark, then the NDA can slice and dice the opposition to take support from some of them to make constitutional amendments.

Uniform Civil Code and Art 370 are the first things that come to mind. Well, I think people are giving a full mandate to saffron and so, saffron cannot have any excuse if it fails(as Rahul Mehta alleges they will).

----
Suraj saar,
I think it is not about re-distribution vs growth but rather re-distribution and growth. Any govt that concentrates on only one of the two will find it hard. If growth is neglected, then there won't be anything to re-distribute. If there is no re-distribution, then the fruits of the growth will not reach all peopleand will be restricted to a few segments of society, so others will react adversely.

TDP in AP concentrated on growth without re-distribution while Yesu Reddy went for re-distribution neglecting growth. Infact, it seems that Antonio was inspired by Yesu Reddy's tactics.

It is easy to justify a poll result after knowing the result but all that is mindplay. The reality is that both 2004 and 2009 could have gone either way. AP was critical in both results. In 2004, TDP lost in AP because of lack of re-distribution. TDP also lost because it neglected the agriculture and concentrated only on Hyd, that too only on IT sector. Kongis promised heaven and earth to everyone. In 2009, dummy parties were created to cut anti-incumbency votes. (There was fire even in 2009 in AP secretariat. Fires are a sign that the incumbent may exit. I think there was magic that saved the day. I know you don't believe in magic but I think there was magic at that time). In 2009, there is another angle. AP voted against the split. AP supported kongis because after the T phase of elections were over, Yesu Reddy donned anti-split persona and put TDP in a tight spot because TDP was in alliance with TRS. So, AP voted to kongis(at central) to put a lid on split ideas. Irony is that the kongis split the state. At state level, it was more neck and neck and chiru's party played a critical role in making the kongis win.

For quite some time, people have been giving full mandate and expecting results. UPA got a good mandate for an avg job in 2009. Apart from all the factors that I mentioned in previous para, there was also support for Manly Singh and Nuke deal in urbane crowd. Manly Singh was projected by the radiamedia as the greatest economist. So, people gave him a good mandate.

UP gave a good mandate to young Akki hoping he would clear the state towards better days. Dilli gave a good mandate to young Fordriwal hoping he would usher in change. On the same lines, NaMo will get a good mandate(a thumping mandate). But, people will expect actions on ground. The actions expected will be:
a) economy: growth and re-distribution.
b) ideology: 'Hindhuthva' or abolishing of leftist and minority appeasement.
c) neutralization of kongi cabal structure: that means there has to be visible punishments to those who indulged in corruption or illegal activities in past decade.

If NaMo fails on any of the above, then some people will turn away from him.

Strictly speaking, people don't care what policies(especially economic) are followed by the govt. What people care for is the end-result. If their lives are more comfortable, then they will accept any policy. If their lives become less convenient, then they will reject any policy.

'Comfortable' or 'convenient' is measured against previous experiences. If a person was earning 100 Rs previously and he starts to earn 110 Rs, then his life has become more comfortable. If a person was spending 100 Rs previously and he starts to spend 110 Rs, then his life has become more inconvenient. Those who are inconvenienced are more likely to come out and vote then those who are comfortable. This is precisely where ideology helps in garnering votes. Ideological supporters are crucial to winning elections because they remain loyal. So, any administration that neglects its ideological supporters will also face tough time. 2004 was exactly that for lotus. In 2004, lotus gave up the ideology and hoped that its good work will be enough to carry the day. But, the problem is that such a strategy is completely flawed because
a) ideological opposers of lotus will vote against lotus anyway.
b) ideological supporters of lotus will not vote because they have been neglected.
c) those who are happy with the general performance will not vote because they are convenient and don't have to bother about voting and stuff.
d) those who are unhappy with the general performance will vote because they want to get rid of the administration.

When people don't care about the Govt, then it means the Govt is doing a good job. When people start noticing that Govt is not doing its job, it means the Govt has really failed. If the water is available; roads are nice; jobs are available; railways, ports and airports are well connected and well-maintained; food is affordable and clean;...etc then people don't care who is ruling and what policies he is following. At best, they are just intellectual exercise.(BTW, same logic applies to the world: the fact that world is running perfectly shows that there is a system which is making the world run properly)

kongis did the opposite of what the lotus did: they concentrated only on their vote bank i.e. ideological issues. And they also went for re-distribution model without growth(I think the growth was deliberately sabotaged). This strategy is also flawed because people who are inconvenienced will come out and vote in large numbers.
a) all the ideological opposers oppose
b) all the ideological supporters support
c) all those inconvenienced by the administration will vote against
d) all those who are convenient won't care about voting(BTW, most of the supporters of Fordriwal seem to fall in this category).

Re-distribution can happen only when there is growth in the first place. If there is no growth, then re-distribution efforts are not going to be a huge success.

One way to get rid of the problem is by making the voting compulsory. However, people may still take the good performance of a govt for granted just as people can ignore the good running of the world and become atheists.

People also compare with their immediate friends, family and neighbours. If man is earning much more than people he knows, then he'll be happy. If man is earning much less than people known to him, then he'll be sad. So, there are two factors that people use to judge govts:
a) their(people's) present condition vs their previous condition
b) their(people's) condition vs condition of friends, family, neighbours and colleagues.

When they are doing alright on these two factors, then people will not mind. If they are doing exceedingly well, then people will love such an administration and support it. If they are doing badly on these two factors, then people will try to get rid of such an administration.

People had a good life style until 2010. Then, the situation started to get progressively worse. Most people's lives were effected negatively on above two factors due to inflation and lack of jobs(i.e. lack of growth).

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vina » 15 May 2014 08:01

Can't understand the Hyd disturbance. Sikh flag burnt down, there are Muslim-Sikh disturbances, rumours floating around that MIM did this because Sikhs voted for BJP over MIM, and then Al-hindi has a write up ,with the Dal Khalsa "appealing" to local leaders of both"minority " communities to settle and the de rigour warning against miscreants of Right wing Hindus trying to divide minorities . something is going on, can't think exactly what.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 15 May 2014 08:05

MIM might actually lose their seat this time. just expressing their displeasure.
sikhs seem to have hit back hard looking at the pix of burnt tailor shops and such typically muslim owned...

tomorrow is Friday, and by afternoon prayers the results will be clear in trends leading. a day of rage can be expected in various places.

nothing better than a good round of communal riots to put new Govt on the defensive and "I told you so, Namo becoming PM will increase and spread hate in Yindia" commentaries.

Namo's first executive order has to be release all state and central agencies to CRUSH such miscreants with no letup.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SaiK » 15 May 2014 08:11

Singha, I hope your cavalry to imperium is gaining the strengths.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 15 May 2014 08:12

Singha wrote:MIM might actually lose their seat this time. just expressing their displeasure.


I don't know as many are saying the same. It is a seat with 60% Ms. However, the theory is most of 55% votes polled are from hindu colonies and M voting abysmal which makes MIM vulnerable. But no exit-poll has given HYD seat other than MIM.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Victor » 15 May 2014 08:17

SaiK wrote:baseball bats!?

Exactly my reaction. These make perfect riot weapons besides guns of course but are not normally available in India afaik.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SaiK » 15 May 2014 08:20

I am more scared of the guns that be built inside these baseball bats. Future is bad if we have aapturds loitering with such weapons. OTOH, I encourage dilli wimmen to carry pocket stun guns to generate 8M volts.

I'm sure if you would inspect these turd bats, you will see marks of made in pakistan

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SwamyG » 15 May 2014 08:23

johneeG wrote:
SwamyG wrote:What does Su.Swamy mean by "Constitutional Amendment", on Arnab's show? People are running scared shit :-)


:mrgreen: I think the strategy will be: everyone is allowed to come, and everyone can get a good deal. However, the grand strategy or big picture will be decided by the lotus leadership. And despite all the nautanki, even Mamtha dhidhi may come around giving issue based support.
As far as I understand, 2/3rd majority is needed for constitutional amendments. 540/3=180*2=360. So, 360 are needed. Thats means if NDA is around 330 mark, then the NDA can slice and dice the opposition to take support from some of them to make constitutional amendments.

Uniform Civil Code and Art 370 are the first things that come to mind. Well, I think people are giving a full mandate to saffron and so, saffron cannot have any excuse if it fails(as Rahul Mehta alleges they will).

Something must be cooking. Arnab kept talking about "Super NDA". The Super NDA would have around 310 seats. So at this stage 360 seats would be difficult to get, unless Congress joins NDA. :mrgreen:

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Victor » 15 May 2014 08:25

Singha wrote:Namo's first executive order has to be release all state and central agencies to CRUSH such miscreants with no letup.

Yup. If there are to be riots, let's make them really count.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 15 May 2014 08:28

SaiK wrote:Singha, I hope your cavalry to imperium is gaining the strengths.


my pen will start its march tonight from the starting gate at yamuna, karnal and alwar... :wink:

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 15 May 2014 08:32

>> but are not normally available in India afaik.

I have never seen kids playing baseball anywhere in india except in the diamond behind the american consulate. but baseball bats are available in every department store for unknown reasons. maybe we are a exporter and maker of wooden baseball bats and part of that stock gets dumped internally. maybe in villa communities the kids play baseball, I dont have visibility into that.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Chandragupta » 15 May 2014 09:14

Nobody plays baseball except for very chi chi international schools. But 3 out of 5 cars in the Naarth will have a baseball bat inside, for defense or offence, according to user's shraddha. I used to keep one during my madrassa days too.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mort Walker » 15 May 2014 09:17

Singha wrote:>> but are not normally available in India afaik.

I have never seen kids playing baseball anywhere in india except in the diamond behind the american consulate. but baseball bats are available in every department store for unknown reasons. maybe we are a exporter and maker of wooden baseball bats and part of that stock gets dumped internally. maybe in villa communities the kids play baseball, I dont have visibility into that.


I've seen it around NCR a few years back.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Gus » 15 May 2014 09:34

Singha wrote: but baseball bats are available in every department store for unknown reasons. maybe we are a exporter and maker of wooden baseball bats and part of that stock gets dumped internally. .


in mid 90s, in coimbatore, at a very sdre school (it was a ramakrishna mission school), the PT room had couple of baseball bats and balls. we used to play cricket with it :lol:

i think it is from some sort of aid that dumps these things to sports dept at state level and flows down.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby JE Menon » 15 May 2014 09:47

^^Very often the high-end boarding schools in the Nilgiris and I'm sure in Mussoorie (where cricket pitches are hard to find, or create), students played the below (a sort of cross between cricket and baseball)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_cricket

...and a baseball bat was used.

However, what that gent is carrying in the photo where the shooter is shown, looks like an "Indian club" which is widely used for exercising in traditional gyms, as well as modern ones. The "bat" in his hand is not shaped like a baseball bat and seem too short to be one.

The Indian club is an old exercise instrument however, and uniquely Indian as far as I know.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_23651 » 15 May 2014 10:04

Guys are we confusing softball bat with baseball? Because softball is played in schools and college sponsored teams. I have not seen Softball being played at "gullee" level.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Pratyush » 15 May 2014 10:23

It is a Base ball bat. The reason is very simple. It makes for a better blunt force weapon in some circumstances. When compared to say a Hocky stick.

Most people with macho predilections keep one around. Including a few of my co workers.

But why is it being discussed on this thread.
Last edited by Pratyush on 15 May 2014 11:22, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vikas » 15 May 2014 10:34

Why would MIM goons attack Sikhs in Hyderabad. Sikhs are Minority among Minority outside Punjab.
Is this to cause polarization before the upcoming Assembly elections by M leadership ?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 15 May 2014 10:35

Aakash Gauttam ‏@AakashGauttam Apr 20

I am not sure whether Adani received land for free or not but China received 62000 sq km of land for free from Pt. Nehru.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Pratyush » 15 May 2014 10:39

What about land gifted to TSP in 47 -48?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby manju » 15 May 2014 10:47

Chandragupta wrote:Nobody plays baseball except for very chi chi international schools. But 3 out of 5 cars in the Naarth will have a baseball bat inside, for defense or offence, according to user's shraddha. I used to keep one during my madrassa days too.


That must from local akhada...kusti place.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 15 May 2014 11:00

pls take the discussion of the riot to internal security thread in other forum.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby kmkraoind » 15 May 2014 11:20

scroll.in ‏@scroll_in May 9 : [Election pics] - An instashot of Election Commission volunteers guarding boxes containing #EVMs in Hajipur, Bihar. http://ow.ly/i/5vAwr


Image :shock:

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby JE Menon » 15 May 2014 11:23

^^Nothing to be really that concerned about. It only reflects the fact that, for the most part, elections in India are peaceful and very routine. Everyone knows their role, and they are cool with it.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krishnan » 15 May 2014 11:31

amma sacks min who spoke about supporting modi

Retweeted by mamta
ananya dasgupta ‏@ananyadg 13m

#newslaert:Jayalalithaa sacks partyman Malaisamy.He spoke yesterday on possibility of AIADMK supporting Modi. Reports @anna_isaac. @ibnlive

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dilbu » 15 May 2014 11:55

Is it because she has a problem with the alliance? I think it has got more to do with a party member stepping out of line and saying something which could damage her negotiations with Namo.


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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krishnan » 15 May 2014 12:07

Dilbu wrote:Is it because she has a problem with the alliance? I think it has got more to do with a party member stepping out of line and saying something which could damage her negotiations with Namo.


ego, how can someone talk about these things when she is there, she is the supreme god in AIADMK

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dilbu » 15 May 2014 12:11

I saw the video of that guy speaking to media yesterday. He was a decent guy with enough language skills to be projected on national scene. May be he played his cards a bit too early. It is this unpredictable extreme reaction streak in Jayalalitha that makes her a nightmare as coalition partner. Hope NDA gets enough numbers and don't have to depend on her support to survive.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dilbu » 15 May 2014 12:11

NaMo will lose onlee. :(( :(( :((

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 15 May 2014 12:16

New Indian Express ‏@NewIndianXpress 4h

#NitishKumar First to Face @narendramodi Heat? - http://tnie.in/1jvWoMg

Nitish, who earlier used to call the shots in the JD(U), would now find it increasingly hard to convince the party workers that his decision to sever ties with the BJP was taken in the party’s best interests.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby nagesh » 15 May 2014 12:19

Its 65 BJP,2 Cngress and 13 others,as per list sent by a bjp person.Dont know how to attach the list with the post here.

yesterday on poll of polls on justice arnab show one of the senior journalists was saying that 30% in UP means 40 tickets and for every % after that corresponds to 4-5 seats.[/quote]

TodaysChanakya is going to be right guys.

65-70 for UP is damn sure[/quote]

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dilbu » 15 May 2014 12:21

Nitish will soon have a rebellion in his party. People are keeping quiet until results are out. The decision to break ties with NDA was made solely because of Nitish's PM ambitions.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby chaanakya » 15 May 2014 12:46

He is a goner.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 15 May 2014 12:47

BJP ladies: Smriti unseats Sushma

http://www.abplive.in/india/2014/05/15/ ... ats-Sushma
New Delhi: Smriti Irani may win or lose from Amethi but she appears set to unseat Sushma Swaraj as the BJP’s first lady.

Like Sushma three elections ago, Smriti has won the admiration of the party for her “courage and resolve” in taking on a Gandhi and making a fight of the contest.

...
If Smriti wins the election and the BJP forms a government at the Centre, a ministry would be hers for the asking, except the top four, sources said. Even if she loses, Modi could “reward” her with a cabinet berth for her “boldness”.

There is speculation over whether Sushma, the leader of the Opposition in the outgoing Lok Sabha, will find a place in a government headed by Modi whose rise she hasn’t been able to stomach.
Old guard making way for new folks. Modi's gambit??
Last edited by pankajs on 15 May 2014 12:53, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby chaanakya » 15 May 2014 12:48

I hope 5forty4 plans to give his poll predictions before 5PM on 16th.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sumeet » 15 May 2014 13:23

What time will official result announced for general election 2014 ?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Virendra » 15 May 2014 13:47

Gentlemen/Ladies,

I'll be in office tomorrow, while the D day unfolds.
Please suggest some websites that would provide reliable and latest seat results/trends.
I found TimesNow way behind Hindi news channels during the 5 states elections last year.

Regards,
Virendra

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Comer » 15 May 2014 13:50

^^ BRF :-)


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