AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

ramana
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AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 24 Jul 2013 03:44

PP guy had an op-ed where he says that BJP will takeover Telangana after the 2014 elections for a while. he suggest INC take a second look if they want to be there beyond the next elections.
In other words he says T will becoem like one of the newly divided Northern states.

I didn't get the analogy there.

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Added two more posts for completeness:

Narayana Rao wrote:With Ramanaji closing 2012 Assemebly election and it is strongly suspected that 2013 budget with lot of sops will be followed by an early general election I am starting a new thread. Hope it will also go for next 200 pages.

Tomorrow is the all party meeting on Telangana and CBN has to act tactfully. interesting post about CBN -

http://krishnarjun108.wordpress.com/201 ... ty-of-cbn/

I happen to agree with some points - He will never allow any other leader to grow in the party. He had a golden opp to have long term relationship with BJP and NDA but his insecurity and short term oppertunisums resulted in present condition. He prevented other leaders from becoming ministers and having got huge benifits under BJP rule at Delhi for his state govt he returned back to "secular" fold and now finds himself in this useless conditon.


-------------------------
Muppalla wrote:Let us use this thread to discuss some real strategy. Though we all like to see UPA out of the door, the ground reality of electoral math is not in favor of such a thing yet. As things stand and if there is an election next month UPA-3 is a sure shot thing.

Here is an important pointer that ShauryaT posted in the closed assembly election thread on 21st December.

many in this thread are still missing a ground to earth reality that exists in Gujrat. It is the rural-urban divide

The BJP may not be able to repeat its handsome win in the civic polls in the October 21 district panchayat, taluka and nagarpalika polls, if statistics of past elections are to go by.

Voters who showed a pro-BJP trend in the civic and Assembly elections have shown a tilt towards the Congress in the rural and Lok Sabha elections.

Besides, the gap in the vote share between the two parties in the rural polls is narrower compared to the urban polls. In Ahmedabad city, the gap was 12.48 per cent, which narrowed down to 1.94 per cent in the district panchayat polls last time. In Vadodara city, the gap was 21.09 per cent, but the Congress pipped the BJP in the district panchayat elections by getting its share up by 2.48 per cent.

The scene was no different in Surat and Rajkot. The municipal corporation polls showed a 23.84 per cent vote share in favour of the BJP in Surat and 22.11 per cent share in its favour in Rajkot, which narrowed down to 3.45 per cent in the district polls.

In Jamnagar, the civic poll share gap was 17.82 per cent in favour of the BJP and 3.28 per cent in panchayat body. In Bhavnagar though, the vote share in favour of the BJP was 4.16 per cent in the municipal corporation and 5.37 per cent in the district panchayat.

In the Assembly election of 2007, the vote share was 11.12 per cent in favour of the BJP which dipped down to 3.16 per cent in the Lok Sabha election of 2009.

The overall vote share gap in 2005 in the district panchayats was 4.75 per cent and in case of municipalities 4.78 per cent. But in the case of the taluka panchayats in 2006, the Congress had an upper hand with 15.11 per cent vote share.


Just before the actual election results came B.Raman and some those who has internal IB connection in India tweeted that congress gameplan of making Modi to CBN level. We should not brush aside such statements as some fantacy just because we don't like.

Congress has an APization plan for some states

The game plan of INC is whereever there is a straight fight and a pushy urban middleclass (the media wrongly puts is neo-urbanclass like neo-rich of Russia), you have to create fissures and divide it so that the votes of this class is irrelevant. That is the fundamental game here.

(1) They achieved it in AP using the Telangana bandwagon. TDP is almost irrelevant. It is easy to call it as some basket case today but just rewind back to 2000-2004 timeline. CBN being the CEO, all IT-Vty stuff and the world praising the state as a most forward looking etc. Not that AP does not have backwardness. Who is the reason for such a forward looking image? The so called neo-middleclass. The backbone of such an image was broken and the electorate is now splintered.

(2) Congress just tried APization on Gujarat. Do not take away the success of Keshubhai and his achievement in this election. It was Modi's electoral strategy that got seats but he did not win in places where he was expected to win. But congress will do a very micro level analysis in planning new strategies for LS2014. GJP will be the new RajT/Chiranjeevi of Gujarat and I am sure Modi will not take it lightly inspite of victory.

(3) Now the APization of Karnataka seems to be complete - The corruption is Karnataka is like a bird's drop in a ocean when compared to anything that happened in YSR's AP or central government. However, the extra brutal push on Yeddi and recently on Eshwarrappa tells that the push is as simple as the operation APization. You need several parties fighting for each other for the same space so that INC can win. Here is the survey (little biased towards congress as they gave alway 15 to 20 seats in all their surveys more to INC). http://www.daijiworld.com/news/news_dis ... _id=158171

Congress will be back to power in the state with a clear majority of 115 seats in the coming assembly elections, a survey conducted by C fore (Centre for Forecasting & Research) has revealed.

As per the survey, the ruling BJP will take second place with 58 seats, JD(S) will improve its tally from last elections to 31 seats and Yeddyurappa's KJP will be pushed to a corner with only 14 seats.

The survey conducted by C fore has considered 158 towns and 658 rural places with opinions from 10,279 voters around the state. The survey includes men and women from all castes, religions and age groups.

More number of youth and women have favoured Congress in the survey. Congress is expected to bag 36% of the total votes. Out 224 sitting MLAs, only 85 MLAs are expected to be re-elected this time, while the rest would be rejected by the people.

BJP will be a major loser losing about 60 sitting MLAs.

While 54% of the Lingayat community voters favoured B S Yeddyurappa, only 25% were in favour of BJP. Minorities Muslim and Christians are expected to back Congress strongly this time, along with backward castes. But Vokkaliga voters have shown support to JD(S).


In all the three cases above, it is just a line of political divisions that will keep a state looking like economically forward with development politics Vs completely casteistic backward. Gujarat was able to beat the plot where AP failed and KA is in the process.

Modi needs to do a VPSingh+ABV of 1989 to unite the voters and beat the divisions that are being plotted and executed.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 24 Jul 2013 09:59

bjp is almost no where in panchayath polls of ap and we expect them to hold telangana or any part of AP? It needs to do lot of work before that happens. It may win here and there in urban areas as of now. Good news is TDP is doing much better and is ahead of INC in many districts.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 24 Jul 2013 10:16

^^What surprises me narayan rao garu, is the fact that INC held its own so much despite all the shenanigans against it.

In fact INC + YSRCP tally beats TDP's. No? Fact not lost on anyone, am sure.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Aditya_V » 24 Jul 2013 21:10

Yup which means AP will have 3 continous terms of INC rule once YSR joins coalition with INC after elections. there will anther 5 years of Yes/No Telegana which will continue to wonders to the Hyderabad and AP economy as a whole.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby sum » 24 Jul 2013 22:14

^^ Wow, AP seems to deserve what is reaping if it still keeps voting in INC with such vigour!!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 25 Jul 2013 19:26

money power is in full display. 10k per vote in some places. INC and Jagan spending like anything. TDP is trying to match. But in the end CBN is gaining slowly. I am now worried if he can do sufficient for kick INC in the a**, He should join with BJP just like 2004. But unfortunately he is continuing his sickular stupidity.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 25 Jul 2013 23:34

^^^
I have a feeling TDP will go the "Janata" way.
Jagan coming out of jail will set in motion the next transformation of AP elites.
TDP will kick and scream valiantly, but won't be enough to force convincing or even slight majority.
Jagan will become the new 21st century subahdar.
and if he has half the brains of his father, he will divert the "development"/"progress" stream of the Hindus into his kitty.

But I think it will be a transitory transformation. A kind of hedging process where the power brokers will most probably decide to divvie up between INC and the Subahdar, for obvious reasons.

the real unrest will come when the Subahdar will try to break free of self-imposed shackles.
this is when the remnants of TDP will come into play. but as long as TDP remains as "TDP", they won't amount to much more than a marginal player in the coming years. for "TDP", the name, to have a legacy, "TDP", the spirit, has to cease to be TDP.

it's important that Desam thinkers realize the requirements of future. they don't lie in its current form. it must be something more.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 26 Jul 2013 01:17


ShyamSP
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 26 Jul 2013 01:27

devesh wrote:^^^
I have a feeling TDP will go the "Janata" way.
Jagan coming out of jail will set in motion the next transformation of AP elites.
TDP will kick and scream valiantly, but won't be enough to force convincing or even slight majority.
Jagan will become the new 21st century subahdar.
and if he has half the brains of his father, he will divert the "development"/"progress" stream of the Hindus into his kitty.

But I think it will be a transitory transformation. A kind of hedging process where the power brokers will most probably decide to divvie up between INC and the Subahdar, for obvious reasons.

the real unrest will come when the Subahdar will try to break free of self-imposed shackles.
this is when the remnants of TDP will come into play. but as long as TDP remains as "TDP", they won't amount to much more than a marginal player in the coming years. for "TDP", the name, to have a legacy, "TDP", the spirit, has to cease to be TDP.

it's important that Desam thinkers realize the requirements of future. they don't lie in its current form. it must be something more.


For some time, you somehow have been parroting the idea that BJP comes to AP and TDP vanishes. BJP for all its strengths in other states and all tactics in the state can't penetrate into AP to win a few villages. TDP continues with its core strength and the core base regardless of Telangana issue that currently engulfs AP politics.

YSR party is nothing but extension of Congress party. They haven't shown long-term plan for party existence. They are positioning themselves as sub-regional party in non-Telangana areas. (This can be observed from today's resignations :lol: of their MLAs). As long as people keep the equation TDP vs INC+YSRC, their chances are always tied with Congress chances. However, if YSRP broadens their ideology they have chance to throw INC out of AP completely making AP like TN. However, both YSRC and TRS are limited in scope to be alternative to TDP yet.

In AP, the fight still is and will be TDP vs INC, YSRC, TRS.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 26 Jul 2013 02:22

ShyamSP wrote:For some time, you somehow have been parroting the idea that BJP comes to AP and TDP vanishes. BJP for all its strengths in other states and all tactics in the state can't penetrate into AP to win a few villages. TDP continues with its core strength and the core base regardless of Telangana issue that currently engulfs AP politics.


there is a search feature on BRF. go look up my posts. point out one post where I said BJP will coming swinging into AP.
at best, I might have predicted BJP developing pockets of strength, but nothing more.

I don't believe that TDP will "continue with its core strength". It is a party with no scope beyond CBN.
TDP rose specifically because of a certain compact with certain sections of Andhra (all regions) population.
the trend in those sections has to be understood. you have to talk to people outside of the K-B-R-V castes.

the K's have won respect. but the sections they helped will not remain forever "bound" to the old compact.
people will want more. TDP does not have a vision beyond the region. you don't understand the specific kind of frustration that people are developing. it is not just the roti-kapda-makan anymore. YSR tapped into that. but nobody will ever work that magic on that scale again.

ultimately, my vision for Andhra region is different from your's and many others. I don't see any "glory" or "atma gauravam" in electing either a corrupt shadow-colonial entity or a glorified regional entity whose claim to fame is past deeds and who have no inspiring vision beyond "Telugu vari atma gauravam". I want something more. and I sense that I am not alone. I don't mind being the minority on this at all. I have embraced this fact within my own close blood-relatives. I am willing to wait till whenever my fellow brothers and sisters are ready for it. and if there are only 10 people who I can convince, that's fine. it just means that time is not right, but time will come. it will come.


YSR party is nothing but extension of Congress party. They haven't shown long-term plan for party existence. They are positioning themselves as sub-regional party in non-Telangana areas. (This can be observed from today's resignations :lol: of their MLAs). As long as people keep the equation TDP vs INC+YSRC, their chances are always tied with Congress chances. However, if YSRP broadens their ideology they have chance to throw INC out of AP completely making AP like TN. However, both YSRC and TRS are limited in scope to be alternative to TDP yet.

In AP, the fight still is and will be TDP vs INC, YSRC, TRS.



TRS is a shadow of a shadow. I have never considered it anything more than a puppet, its strings first attached by YSR. then obediently handed over to INC. the real movers on T will be INC and "Center". TRS is a distraction created so that the coastal elites have a convenient "figurehead" to point their population at. and so that T-people can hang onto KCR's words, when real power is not with him.

yes, in the grand scheme, YSJ will collaborate with INC. but he still wants an independent Subah. and he still hasn't been bumped off. He is being well fed and "protected". No, he is not going to "die" that easily. and I think INC is in a dilemma. they fear, yet also want to accommodate him to an extent.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 26 Jul 2013 03:59

devesh wrote:I don't believe that TDP will "continue with its core strength". It is a party with no scope beyond CBN.
TDP rose specifically because of a certain compact with certain sections of Andhra (all regions) population.
the trend in those sections has to be understood. you have to talk to people outside of the K-B-R-V castes.


Compacting is part and parcel of the politics. TDP compacted with certain sections doesn't mean it is against other sections. BJP also did compact with Telangana but its vision there blurred as it is against non-Telangana, where it got flushed out for that reason. Pity is Telangana also didn't give a few villages for BJP to win.

devesh wrote:ultimately, my vision for Andhra region is different from your's and many others. ... I want something more. and I sense that I am not alone. I don't mind being the minority on this at all. I have embraced this fact within my own close blood-relatives. I am willing to wait till whenever my fellow brothers and sisters are ready for it. and if there are only 10 people who I can convince, that's fine. it just means that time is not right, but time will come. it will come.


All the best with your vision. Hope you and your 10-people clan will bring 42 MP seats for BJP. Is your 10-people clan working for BJP in ongoing Panchayati elections to win a few villages? :D

devesh wrote:yes, in the grand scheme, YSJ will collaborate with INC. but he still wants an independent Subah. and he still hasn't been bumped off. He is being well fed and "protected". No, he is not going to "die" that easily. and I think INC is in a dilemma. they fear, yet also want to accommodate him to an extent.


YSRC is okay to be in INC with some independence. Independent Subedar mindset is that of YSR as he in my opinion felt inadequate with respect to CBN, his contemporary in politics, and run politics like him being the high-command. It is also symptom of the region YSR comes from where feudal lords became "ronin" types after fall of Hindu empires.

INC is moving from Reddy compact to Kapu compact. How YSRC will pull INC to its side or move to be an independent is to be seen. This INC, YSRC, and Chiru/Kapu internal tussle is only at the beginning.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Kakkaji » 26 Jul 2013 06:13

Is Andhra Pradesh on the way to becoming another Uttar Pradesh?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 26 Jul 2013 06:56

ShyamSP wrote:
Compacting is part and parcel of the politics. TDP compacted with certain sections doesn't mean it is against other sections. BJP also did compact with Telangana but its vision there blurred as it is against non-Telangana, where it got flushed out for that reason. Pity is Telangana also didn't give a few villages for BJP to win.


once again, you need to get out of your own white noise and focus on what I'm saying. you are commenting on what you believe I have said in the past. not what I really said. there was nothing in my post about "TDP against other sections." those are your words. it is not about being "against other sections". it is about satisfying the same compact with the same sections. I am saying that people's expectations will start turning different. MORE.

ShyamSP wrote:All the best with your vision. Hope you and your 10-people clan will bring 42 MP seats for BJP. Is your 10-people clan working for BJP in ongoing Panchayati elections to win a few villages? :D


are you sure you are reading right? I mean, do you need translation and help in paraphrasing what other people say? where did "clan" come from? I suppose it's a Freudian slip though. you are stuck in your "clan"/"caste" state. stay there and the generation will leave you behind. one day you will look back and be stunned at your own blindness. don't get there.

ShyamSP wrote:YSRC is okay to be in INC with some independence. Independent Subedar mindset is that of YSR as he in my opinion felt inadequate with respect to CBN, his contemporary in politics, and run politics like him being the high-command. It is also symptom of the region YSR comes from where feudal lords became "ronin" types after fall of Hindu empires.

INC is moving from Reddy compact to Kapu compact. How YSRC will pull INC to its side or move to be an independent is to be seen. This INC, YSRC, and Chiru/Kapu internal tussle is only at the beginning.


the best bet is to confine him to Andhra in a Trishanku situation like Pawar, where he cannot grow out of his own regional base. I cannot claim any "inside" sources, but the "feeling" is that the Son is as cunningly resourceful as the Father. INC's fear is that if Jagan were to attain gaddi for even a couple of years, he will manage to squirrel his fingers into enough pockets to do serious damage.

But let's see how it goes. we won't have to wait for long anyway. some resolution has to be reached before Elections.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 26 Jul 2013 07:18

Kakkaji wrote:Is Andhra Pradesh on the way to becoming another Uttar Pradesh?


easy thing would be to bemoan that it has already happened.

but a very complicated question, I think. and not an easy one to answer.

one of reasons UP is the way it is, is the massive population. the sheer logistics involved in getting that scale of population under a convincing "umbrella" for a considerable amount of time is probably the major contributor to the fractured polity. Andhra doesn't have that problem. 9 crore people in a state the size of Andhra is not that unmanageable. it's still huge. but the odds are still favorable. neighboring Maharashtra, roughly same size geographically, has 2.5 crore more. Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are considerably less, but the geographic size is also smaller. to the North, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, and Jharkhand are all much less densely populated, and hence far lesser population size.

and Andhra generally has a much more amicable inter-caste atmosphere than UP (or at least that's the impression I get from watching UP from afar). contrary to the general impression, Andhra caste relations have grown much more fluid in the past couple of decades. so there is hope in that too.

but there is one aspect in Andhra that remains same as the Northern Plains. our AG, the one who got banned, had some interesting things to say about Arthur Cotton. I think those posts are still there for those who want to see. look up his posts and you can see why I am saying this. Until I had read brihaspati ji's posts on BRF, specifically on the topic of "mercantile mentality", I could never quite figure out how elite sections behave the way they do. lot of things clicked into place after I imbibed that theory though. I don't want to rehash old stuff, but look up his posts on "Arthur Cotton", and you will see what I speak of. it is the hedging mentality of a privileged elite coterie which has the good fortune to be born on the fertile plains and which have historically hosted large business and trading networks.

he also had interesting things to say about "using the mussalman to put the T-vadis in their place". I regretted that he got banned. seriously. he was a virtual loud speaker that would have helped us get a direct look at our elites. especially those who like to camouflage themselves under "pro-backward"/"anti-brahminical" rubric.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 27 Jul 2013 08:18

http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/1866038/ ... ifurcation

The suspense is over. The Congress is understood to have taken a call on the Telangana issue by bifurcating Andhra Pradesh. But in an anti-climax of sorts, claim insiders, the new state will be called Hyderabad and not Telangana.

The comeback of the historic state of Hyderabad is significant: it was once ruled by the Nizams and and was on the Indian map from 1724 to 1948. At the time of the Partition, the State of Hyderabad was the largest and most prosperous of all princely states. After the reorganisation of states based on linguistic lines in 1956, the State of Hyderabad was split up between Andhra Pradesh and Bombay. Later, it was again divided among Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka.

This is absolute BS. What the heck guys? Will the patrons of telangana keep quiet?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krishnan » 27 Jul 2013 08:44

Each state will have 21 seats each and Hyderabad -- the current capital -- would be made a Union Territory and the capital shared by both the states for the next 10 years or until a fresh capital is made after which it will be given to Telangana.


they are murdering AP ... R.I.P

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 27 Jul 2013 08:48

Wonder if the larger plan is to resurrect complete Hyderabad state combining the three split parts from AP, Maha and Ktaka.

It will bring a congress ruled large state (40+ seats) with critical Minority population together. It can also act as the Congress's IM hand in south.

This will also weaken the competition in Andhra, Maha and Ktaka regions by reducing them to Rajasthan size states.

This is the congress for dhimmis.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby geeth » 27 Jul 2013 09:23

Kangress will be firing on their own foot by naming the new state Hyderabad. All BJP has to tell the folks all over India is that Kangress is bringing Muslim rule back - for any gain in AP, Kangress is likely to lose heavily in rest of India. So, even sikularism comes at a price in Modi Era (loh Purush would not have made it an issue, since Jinnah is sikular onlee).

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krishnan » 27 Jul 2013 10:55

making telangana capital is not going to down well with most of AP as well

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 28 Jul 2013 09:29

so is August 6th the date of the division? didn't see that in any of the reports.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 28 Jul 2013 09:36

meanwhile...

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... elatedNews

In a major setback to the YSR Congress, senior leaders from Telangana snapped ties with it after failing to get convincing answer from the honorary president Y. S. Vijayamma on the resignations tendered by 16 MLAs.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 28 Jul 2013 09:50

devesh wrote:so is August 6th the date of the division? didn't see that in any of the reports.

Aug 5th is supposed to be the deadline, is it not? Widely reported. No, I don't have any inside track - pointedly never discuss a highly emotional issue to all concerned.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krishnan » 28 Jul 2013 10:12

no date fixed and they have given Aug 15 as the deadline for the split or the entire telengana will descend on Hyderabad

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 28 Jul 2013 10:56

I was saying from the start INC will only look for political gains in T issue and 2014 is a generation level election with Amul Baba's future at stake. If failed miserably Rahul and establishment may lose their base irreparably. So They have to win at any cost. With 10 years of Modi there will be almost nothing left of DyNaste. AP being the main power center they have to somehow get most of the 42 seats and control both the sides. The present ideas seems to be Diggi ideas. One thing happend in case of MP after the division INC never won the states divided. I hope it happen to INC in case of AP if AP is divided. Diggi is always next election type politico. % of Muslim votes in Telangana may not protect it and BJP may yet emarge as the main force to oppose INC and it has its own Ironwore lobby. If division is announced CM may resign and AP state government will surely fall. He seems to be very vocal internally and personally I never expected it. Most of the Non Telangana Minister in Delhi may also resign. If they hesitate to resign the Jagan Criminal gang will force them. Even their own self interest will force them.

All said and done INC may lose most of the 42 seats in the end. I am now in Hyd for the last one month and there is slow Modi under current here in the city. Hyd and Nagam Janardhan may surely for BJP this time. If Modi extensively tour then they may get few more seats.

In the end it may even all media hype delibarately created by INC to test the waters. We can never be sure.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Aditya_V » 28 Jul 2013 11:16

I would be suprised if INC gives Telegana because it can be only a short term gamble useful for 2014 elections. They have kept the Telegana pot boiling since the 1960's. IN 2000 the T movement was nearly dead until it was used as Bramastra as KCR was pulled out from TDP by YSR in 2001. ALong with the 2002 drought in T it played a crucial part in the INC victory in 2004. It has completly thrown the TDP off balance.

BJP on Telengana issue is wrank opportunism to make sure INC does suicide by creating Telengana as it knows it can never start to be a significant player in the whole of AP from the ground up.

So what was raked up for 2004 for kicking NDA is having some unintended consequences.

Doubt the INC will take a major gamble like giving T while they are in power. They are a blow hot-blow cold type of party who want to keep the issue perennially alive by playing one set off people against an anther.

Its a party with very good Politics and 0 governance as can be seen from the last 65 years.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 28 Jul 2013 15:08

devesh wrote:1. Rayala Telangana means the road to keeping the Ashraf-power alive in that region. Also keeps the possibility of M-EJ collaboration open.

2. actually, dividing Rayalaseema is crucial for keeping the water wars from breaking out. the Reddys of that region will become a crucial node between the 2 sides. ShyamSP has pointed out that this division of Rayalaseema is prompted by "hatred of coastals". but let's get out of rhetoric and see what it really means. it is a hedge by INC to keep both sides from gaining too much power. keep them balanced so that neither side gets any "crazy" ideas. in one stroke, this neutralizes the Telangana hotheads who might be thinking about overplaying their hand. it keeps them in check.

3. we might not realize this right now, but this bifurcation makes both sides heavily dependent on INC. it is practically guaranteed that any alternative power will have no chance of taking AP now. even after this division, the expected beating of INC at the elections might not happen. in fact, they might gain the kind of staying power that will surprise many, simply because they will place themselves in the position to be intermediaries between the 2 sides.


When the Krishna is mostly used by South-of-Krishna districts, giving control to upper state is nothing but for "control". Question is why do they want to control? You only get negative words - Fear, suspicion, hate towards others. This is root of more contention till that "control" is eliminated. Splitting RS doesn't solve water disputes if other districts are also users of Krishna water.
Last edited by ShyamSP on 28 Jul 2013 15:21, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 28 Jul 2013 15:20

I guess some here don't understand water but live in "pet" vision of having AP in BJP kitty.

----

This is what I wrote in 12/2009 (viewtopic.php?p=786421#p786421)
"If you join Mahaboob Nagar, Ranga Reddy, Nalgonda into rest of Andhra you get Chandigarh like border."

---

This is YSRC latest proposal - to create "Telangana-2 districts" instead of "Telangana+2 districts".

http://www.andhraheadlines.com/BrowseAr ... tId=117723
"As per this report, Jagan is bringing forward a proposal that Mahabubnagar, south Nalgonda (Nalgonda Parliament constituency), Khammam district and a part of the Indravati river catchment area should be merged in the Rayalaseema and Andhra regions, to create the state bifurcated from Telangana."...
"Jagan is bringing forward water disputes and Hyderabad in support of his formula. The report says that Jagan was putting forward his theory that there would be water wars if the state was divided as congress proposed, forming one state with the upper part of the state and another with the lower part. He is proposing that the Jurala, Srisailam and Nagarjunasagar projects should be totally in the state formed with Rayalaseema and Andhra regions."

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 28 Jul 2013 17:16

devesh wrote:^^^
yup, what did I say in one of the previous posts: dividing Seema is crucial in making sure that the Water-wars don't break out. it keeps both sides balanced. and makes sure that the hotheads are checked in their fantasies.


I don't understand this at all. How will the T folks can accept this?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 28 Jul 2013 17:46

ramana wrote:Now its Hindus!

Meanwhile TOI reports Kurnool aka YSR District and Ananthapur also throw in for free.Wonder what it will do to the local mix.

NEW DELHI: Disregarding opposition to Telangana from its ranks, the Congress added new urgency to the creation of the proposed state by deciding to hold consultations with UPA partners and calling the meeting of its apex decision-making body — Congress working committee (CWC) — on the vexed issue next week.

A discussion with the UPA partners is likely on July 29 or 30, and the CWC could meet on the same or the following day. The decision to call the partners is seen as the clear indication that the Congress may have made up his mind despite continuing opposition from party leaders hailing from non-Telangana regions in Andhra Pradesh.

The party managers discussed the vexed issue on Saturday, a day after it was conveyed to state leaders that a decision had been taken to divide Andhra.

The indication of twin meetings in the coming three days came even as four Union ministers advocating United Andhra met PM Manmohan Singh and urged him to stall the decision on statehood which they warned would create a mess.

The decision to carve out Telangana has been clinched but, sources said, the leadership is still discussing the final contours — like including two districts of Rayalaseema — of the proposed state.

It might be called Hyderabad state


The Rayala-Telangana proposal would include Kurnool and Ananthapur districts, and make Telangana a 12-district state. The proposal is seen by insiders as politically significant since it would considerably alter the social demographics of Telangana.

Sources said the population of Muslims in Telangana would go up by 2% while that of dalits would also increase if Kurnool and Ananthapur districts are made part of Telangana. The minorities and SCs are part of traditional Congress votebase and the party feels it would help its political cause.

Also, increasing the share of Muslims in Telangana would allay the fears of those sections who feel the proposed state could lead to the growth of BJP that is also promising statehood.


However, the critical reason, as claimed by experts, is the inclusion of two districts would do away with the need for water-sharing of Krishna river that passes through Rayalaseema districts.

If Rayala-Telangana gets the nod, the state may be called the "Hyderabad state". The nomenclature is loaded given that it would convey that the capital city is an integral part of the new state.

The feverish pitch of developments sent four Union ministers opposed to creation of Telangana to the doorsteps of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Saturday morning.

KS Rao, Chiranjeevi, Pallam Raju and D Purandeswari told the PM that Congress should not divide the state for short-term political gains and warned it would create a mess. PM Singh is learnt to have assured the bunch of Andhra ministers that he would apprise the leadership about their apprehensions.:)

The meeting came after ministers in Andhra government told the four that they should still try to convince the leadership against statehood for Telangana. The state ministers have announced that they would not like to be against the public sentiment in coastal and Rayalaseema regions and would tender their resignations if the announcement is made. They think their winnability would go down in 2014 if Telangana is created.:)

However, the mild protest from Union ministers, well short of resignation threats as against what was said by the Andhra ministers, showed they were reconciled to the leadership's decision.

{Param Eunuchs among other eunuchs!}

While concern about a backlash in Andhra region looms, reflected in the fears of Union ministers, Congress has done a cost-benefit analysis based on its condition in the state with 42 Lok Sabha seats.

The reaction of Chandrababu Naidu's TDP may decide if the Congress would be cornered in the non-Telangana regions on the sensitive issue.:) YSR Congress has begun to position itself to polarize anti-Telangana region against Congress, with 16 of its 17 MLAs tendering resignations last week when it became clear that carve-up of the state was on its way.


I will repeat again - TOI and Hindu are used to first throw the idea out and then see the reactions via the Telugu TV channels. The entire Rayala-T is only to make sure that Rayalaseema folks will say their first preference is keep the state united and in a worst case of division this type of division is totally unacceptable.

Consulting MIM and getting acceptance with Owaisi is all drama because consulting Muslims will give them credibility. MIM saying we want state to be united is also just an orchestration. The government just want to create Telangana with Hyd as capital and rest has to deal with their state. The central government may be sinister but they will not have capabilities to do certain things that are totally unnatural. (per the latest "throw of ideas to news", HYD will be UT for five years with Lt Governor.)

The 42 seat analysis and their drubbing in non-T areas is absolute truth. For non-AP folks this a must follow in elections. As we all predicted this 2014 election is a do-or-die for the dynasty. They are ready to kill their golden egg to be in power. They just cannot afford to lose 2014.

My take is that even in T-areas they will lose. If they really achieve this division, there will be re-alignment of forces and the contest will change in Telangana region.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 28 Jul 2013 17:49

Muppalla wrote:
devesh wrote:^^^
yup, what did I say in one of the previous posts: dividing Seema is crucial in making sure that the Water-wars don't break out. it keeps both sides balanced. and makes sure that the hotheads are checked in their fantasies.


I don't understand this at all. How will the T folks can accept this?


Splitting RS makes whole thing void. None of the parties agreed to it so it comes to full circle. That may be what they are trying for.

Congress is weaseling out with out explicitly stating what its position is. Other parties (TDP, YSRC) should ask Congress to explicitly state party's position. What government does is secondary that people and parties can fight or negotiate.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 28 Jul 2013 18:42

Muppalla wrote:
devesh wrote:^^^
yup, what did I say in one of the previous posts: dividing Seema is crucial in making sure that the Water-wars don't break out. it keeps both sides balanced. and makes sure that the hotheads are checked in their fantasies.


I don't understand this at all. How will the T folks can accept this?



They are not thinking that far yet. if this whole thing is true, there will be too much euphoria, and they will think "we are getting T+2 districts". reality sinks in later. I rest that dividing Seema between the two sides actually makes sure that neither side does anything out of the script. it keeps their fantasies in check. but they don't know that now, do they? the T side will accept anything as long as it keeps the "kosta" out. that is their attitude right now.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 28 Jul 2013 19:08

meanwhile, some recent news on TDP:

http://twocircles.net/2013jul14/modi%E2 ... naidu.html
Modi’s mentality not acceptable in India: Chandrababu Naidu

Former key NDA ally Telugu Desam Party chief N. Chandra Babu Naidu in strong words slammed the Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi for his ‘puppy’ remark comparing 2002 Gujarat riots victims to a puppy getting crushed under car wheels.

“Muslims were killed in huge numbers during 2002 Gujarat riots, comparing it to puppy getting crushed under car is shameful. It is disgraceful that man holding CM post is having such kind of feelings,” Mr. Naidu said while addressing press conference at his residence.

He said after every natural disaster, communal riots or any act of terrorism, it is the duty of the government to provide sense of security to its people and relief to the victims. But Naidu said, “Mr. Modi doesn’t even have any remorse for open killings of Muslims right under his Govt. He has overlooked that his comments would hurt the sentiments of families who lost their loved once in the riots, and it will boost motivations of communal roguish elements.”

Former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister even though was key partner in NDA central government but never shared cordial relations with Narendra Modi. He still considers NDA protection to Modi after Gujarat riots was the main reason for his defeat to the Congress.

After 2002 riots when even Nitish Kumar was coming out in support of Modi, Naidu emerged as the biggest opposition to him in NDA. In fact, the TDP president was the first person to demand the sacking of Modi after the massacre and had even threatened to withdraw support to the NDA then. Such was the hostility of Naidu towards Modi that he refused to nominate another TDP MP as the Lok Sabha Speaker, after the death of G.M. Balayogi in a helicopter crash in March 2002, in protest against the Gujarat riots. In August 2003, Mr. Naidu stalled the scheduled visit of Modi to Hyderabad to participate in Ganesh Visarjan program on the grounds that it would trigger communal riots in the city.

Recently when Mr. Modi won Gujarat elections, he invited Mr. Naidu to his swearing in ceremony which Naidu declined to accept and even stopped his brother in law and Telugu film star Bala Krishna from attending it.

Chandra Babu Naidu said people with outlook like Narendra Modi doesn’t have any place in such a secular country like India. He demanded Narendra Modi to withdraw his comments.


I suppose this is the "hope of all hopes" that AP has to look forward to?

the easiest way to neutralize BJP's stance on Telangana was for TDP to keep the channels open and stay friendly with BJP, perhaps even show up every once in a while to the NDA meetings. let's not forget that BJP dropped the separate-Telangana stance in 1998 due to its alliance with TDP.

so, before everybody dumps this on INC, let's carefully look at TDP's own behavior. the ideal thing for them would have been to keep the BJP happy. that would have taken out the BJP from this mess altogether.

instead, they completely sever ties. this is what I call head-in-sand behavior, and thinking that you are the center of the world.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Aditya_V » 28 Jul 2013 19:09

What about the folks in Kurnool and Anantapur districts, will they be happy going with the T state and not Seema Andhra??

I really doubt INC can take a T decision, they will keep the pot boiling with same indecisiveness. T congress leaders and Coastal will tell thier folks give us a mandate and we will give you T or stop T as applicable and YSRC will merge with INC after elections and TRS will support INC.. Thus people of AP will vote them again in 2014.

No one talks about what has INC rule has achieved in the last 10 years in AP. What is the state of Arogyasri which voted INC 2009? what about the loot of Jalnagyam. The huge increase in Liquor consumption, poverty in the state increasing, economy of state with brilliant talent and natural resources becoming stagnant after having same party in central and state govt for 10 years!!!!

All people can do is one part of state hating anther and each worrying whether division will happen or wont.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 28 Jul 2013 19:16

and looks like Naidu's delusions have not yet ended:

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/akhil ... t/1144838/
Akhilesh Yadav meets Chandrababu Naidu, talks third front

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, who is on a two-day visit to Hyderabad, met Telugu Desam Party (TDP) president N Chandrababu Naidu to discuss the possibility of forming a third front. He also met Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy and a few others on Sunday.

The UP CM was here to address the All-India Yadav Mahasabha and was the chief guest at its national executive meeting.

Yadav said that he discussed political issues with Naidu and explored the possibility of forming a third front. Yadav, who praised TDP for allocating 100 seats for backward classes, said UP government is also doing the same.

The UP CM also met Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy to understand the over two dozen welfare schemes being implemented in the state. There was a skirmish between the security personnel and Secunderabad MP Anjan Kumar Yadav and his supporters after the MP was left out of the convoy in which the UP CM was travelling. Police have registered a case against four supporters of Anjan Kumar Yadav for throwing stones at the convoy of the chief minister.



Jai Ho! "Dongalu Dongalu urulu panchukovadam"---"all the thieves sharing villages"-for loot.

but there might actually be some strategy to this: perhaps Naidu wants to make a deal where he agrees to get behind the "Third Front", in return for SP's votes against T/RT/Hyd State. perhaps, that's what Naidu is considering.

it would depend heavily on how many LS seats he can contribute. if he can get 17-20 out of the 42 seats, there is a serious possibility of the Third Front voting against T. but for that to happen, the T-issue will have to wait till after elections. but INC seems to be a in a hurry to position itself on both sides in AP. so ball is in their court.

is it possible to delay INC from taking any steps right now? that's what Naidu should focus on, if he wants to revive his party.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Aditya_V » 28 Jul 2013 19:20

I some how doubt INC will take a step before elections which they could have taken in the last 50 years.

I suspect this will go on until 2014.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 28 Jul 2013 19:21

Aditya_V wrote:What about the folks in Kurnool and Anantapur districts, will they be happy going with the T state and not Seema Andhra??

I really doubt INC can take a T decision, they will keep the pot boiling with same indecisiveness. T congress leaders and Coastal will tell thier folks give us a mandate and we will give you T or stop T as applicable and YSRC will merge with INC after elections and TRS will support INC.. Thus people of AP will vote them again in 2014.

No one talks about what has INC rule has achieved in the last 10 years in AP. What is the state of Arogyasri which voted INC 2009? what about the loot of Jalnagyam. The huge increase in Liquor consumption, poverty in the state increasing, economy of state with brilliant talent and natural resources becoming stagnant after having same party in central and state govt for 10 years!!!!

All people can do is one part of state hating anther and each worrying whether division will happen or wont.



for a State like AP, ideal thing would be to have an affordable public welfare system which makes sure that the specially disadvantaged sections like peasants and small time farmers, subsistence labor, etc. are given certain basic amenities for their welfare, like basic healthcare, education for kids, etc. This is what YSR tapped into, and the reason why INC did so well across AP in both 2004 and 2009. going forward, this should be the aim for India. I think a national-level public welfare system which guarantees certain basic things like affordable healthcare and education for kids, is the way to go. I think this will help in reducing the regional tensions, and play a role in reducing the jealousies.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 28 Jul 2013 19:25

This time INC is serious about division. They are being advised by top non-local/national leaders.*

I dont think YSRC party will support INC in future. The removing of Kurnool aka YSR district from Rayalseema is seen as negative action. Its not being doem for river waters etc. It is to cut YSRC size.


As for BJP in AP I think BJP is egging INC to commit suicide.
All recent elections show their miniscule strength in AP at all levels.
So its pipe dream to think they will gain if T happens or in AP after that.

The IINC national leaders who dodnt understand local issues are driven by two big goals
- Check mythical BJP in AP
- Cut down YSRC in AP
-Prevent any emergence of a capable leader like YSR who can challenge the 2Gs.

All else is bonus.

* INC non-local leaders advising on this division are: PC, Doggy Singh, Moily, Azad and Ahmad Patel.

The last one has figured he cant get any more loot form the INC local leaders.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 28 Jul 2013 19:27

Aditya_V wrote:I some how doubt INC will take a step before elections which they could have taken in the last 50 years.

I suspect this will go on until 2014.



if that is the case, then Naidu might be negotiating with "Third Front" for voting against T.

it also means that T-bill has to be introduced into Parliament and formally get rejected. so either INC or BJP has to introduce it, knowing that it is going to fail. if BJP does it, then they can claim that they kept their promise, but unfortunately, other members of LS have rejected. so, they might be more amenable to such a situation, if they do end up becoming the single largest party in 2014.

how long INC keeps this on the burner is the question.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 28 Jul 2013 19:28

Ramanaji

Two cats and Monkey story at play. At the end, the cats will stand hungry.

None of the cats are showing the big heart or confidence and clarity. That is the issue.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 28 Jul 2013 19:38

I get the feeling that BJP itself might not be as enthusiastic about this, as they were before. calling in "Hyderabad" and joining two districts of Seema have probably set the alarms off. I would think that from now on, they will be thinking of how to extract themselves from muddied waters.

they will go for any option which allows them to claim to the T's that they tried their best, but mood in country is against further division of states. this is best case scenario for them. keeps both the T's and the Kostas open for future negotiations.

I disagree that INC might be committing "suicide". I think we will be surprised by how they still might end up maintaining a good position of strength even if this division takes place.

but yes, I agree with Ramana garu on YSRC: they will be cut to size. their core base divided between two states...

also, the whole labeling is another issue which INC is deliberately throwing a spanner in. if BJP decides that they won't vote for that label, there you go....the whole thing goes to the drawing board all over again. it might also give the BJP the breathing room that they need.

so the real CT-mind in me thinks this could be a joint INC-BJP idea to throw in the two districts and calling it "Hyderabad". different objectives: INC wants to keep it on burner and gain leverage, BJP wants to extract and possibly look for a way out that keeps both sides open for future penetration.


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