AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

vivek.rao
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 06 Oct 2013 01:36

No one is ready for big message. Sonia made sure that every Indian hates the guy next to him. Smart move.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 06 Oct 2013 02:32


Karan M
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Karan M » 06 Oct 2013 02:35

Rony wrote:As per sometimes over exaggerated "people vote by their caste and nothing else" line of thought,

Samuel Jagan (YSRCP) will get the votes of : Reddy's, Dalits/SCs, Brahmins, Christians & Muslims

Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) will get the votes of Kammas, BCs/OBCs including possibly Kapus

Caste war simmers beneath the surface in Seemandhra

A bloody caste war is all set to unfold in Election 2014 in Coastal Andhra-Rayalaseema.

While people are more or less united in their opposition to division of the State, appearing beneath the surface are caste contours that are likely to firm up as polls draw close. A little over two days of travel in Andhra, one could make out who represents which caste, depending on their response to what the future holds for the Telugu Desam of Nara Chandrababu Naidu or YSR Congress of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy.

We stopped by at a make-shift camp for Samaikyandhra at Pedaparapudi village before Gudivada in Krishna district, this one put up by teachers and employees. The discussion was sober, with each of the dozen present coming out with his/her own reasoning on why the State should remain united.

The cracks appeared as we began to scratch the surface to get a feel of the political thought-process. The tent itself was put up in the forecourt of Prashant’s house, a farmer from the Kamma community. “I voted for YSR in 2009 because he genuinely did good to farmers but this time, it will be for Telugu Desam,” he declared. Within no time, Nagaraju, a Brahmin and a teacher who owns 10 acres, literally pounced on the farmer. “What wrong has Jagan done? Who is clean in present day politics? No one talks about missing coal files in the PMO but everyone questions how Jagan got bail?”

As we tried to change the discussion to figure out if an alliance between the Telugu Desam and the BJP would help, revenue officer Koteswara Rao was inclined to say Yes. If you have not understood, he is a BC, a good number of whom are said to be moving towards the Telugu Desam. The lowest strata among them, who had benefited during the YSR regime, along with the SCs, are, however, still with the YSRC. The officer was quickly cut short by another teacher, a Dalit, who made no secret of his love for the YSRC, justifying the same with the assertion that if there was one party committed to Samaikyandhra, it’s Jagan’s.

He then told everyone this was not the time to talk politics.

A little further, at Jamispeta village junction, the equation plays out more clearly. “Jagan is like a flowering Jasmine,” claimed Venkateswara Rao, a daily-wage earner. No prizes for guessing: he is a Dalit. Srinivasa Rao, a farmer, fumed: “Don’t you see foreign (read Christian) influence behind his bail?” He then pressed the auto-start button to zoom off on his new motorbike. He is a Gowda, one of the BC communities.

The exception to this are constituencies where one community - Kammas in Andhra or Reddys in Rayalaseema - maintains a stranglehold and the rest follow the diktat depending on whose patronage they desperately need for livelihood. In such places, we found powerful leaders of the same community aligning with different parties, one with the TDP and the other with the YSRCP - as it happened in the recent Panchayat elections in Bommuluru village in Gudivada constituency, where two Kamma leaders fought for the post of sarpanch and the one aligned with the TDP scraped home by 30 votes. That was in a village which has 2400 votes. Or in Velpur in Tanuku constituency where two women belonging to the same community contested for the sarpanch’s post and the TDP nominee won by 500 votes against the one backed by the YSRC. Auto-driver Suryanarayana, himself a Kamma and a YSRC loyalist, offered this logic: the relatively rich sections backed the TDP nominee while others including the low income groups among Kammas supported the YSRC candidate.

If there is one community which still appears undecided and has historically never sailed in one direction, it is the Kapus, despite indications that many of their leaders are looking towards the Telugu Desam.

Women, of course, and as always remain an enigma as Nani, a backward class TDP member and taxi driver, explained at Mudinepalli junction. “My wife was jubilant after Jagan got bail and says she will vote for him this time.” So will Sharif, a Muslim, part of a group of drivers standing on the roadside, waiting to ferry passengers.

The Reddy-Kamma war for political control will, perhaps for the first time in the history of state politics, come out in all its true colours and nakedly at that.


Interesting.

http://www.andhrafriends.com/topic/2190 ... ercentage/

BC 35-40% SC 16% Kapu 10-12% Reddi 8-10% Kamma 4-5% Brahman 2-3% Vysya 2-3% Velama 1-2%

If the above is correct, TDP+BJP has a good chance of a number of seats?

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 06 Oct 2013 03:09

What is the Telugu Brahmin fascination with Jagan and EJs? They love Jihad and EJfication now?

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 06 Oct 2013 03:11

Rony wrote:Some Seemandhra Congress leaders are playing double game

PCC chief Botsa Satyanarayana double standards on AP bifurcation

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nK2DeQjaJUY

I won’t quit, says Union minister of state Panabaka Lakshmi

Union HRD minister Pallam Raju having second thoughts on resignation after meeting Sonia


None of them can quit. They are all tainted and looters/dalals. She can threaten them with CBI and judiciary. No one can dare. There is only Modi against whom the MAFIA did not have levers. That's why Teestas, Vinod Mehtas,AROy,NDTV,Tehelka,IBN,Sardesai,Barkha,Sagarika,Mulyam,Laloo all had to work together. In spite of this Modi is there. In spite of this, he makes one statement. He is analyzed to the core, crushed into pieces by people. So many conspiracies and motives are attributed. Shows why he will fail miserably because many Hindus don't trust even their shadows not even person who worked all his life and proved he is beyond appeasement. No wonder we trust ITALIAN MAFIA and hand over the country

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby manju » 06 Oct 2013 03:27

The seemandra people participating in bandh/violence is ridiculous. They are destroying their own property and disrupting their own lives.

I think the mob mentality has taken over and I doubt if aam janth knows why they are doing what they are doing.

If I were BJP, I would stress on:
- Congress and YRSRC (its min me) as the cause of this hatred. Making fellow telugu people hate each other.
- Just because brothers separate out in real life.. they dont have to hate each other. They are still connected by Andhra Talli (andhra mother) and maintain good family ties. I feel Modi can weave a nice story/thread and bring out this point.
- emphasize if telugu people are making it big in Benglauru and Chennai whey they cannot make big in each other's state.
- There is a golden opportunity for BJP to repeat emphasize on this.. just like Modi did in Hyd speech.
- If we BJP come to power in center we will allocate x 1000 crore to develop a new capital that will be world class (aka Chandigarh, etc build from scratch). Disclaimer: I have not a clue about the details- the logistics and finances).
- We will ensure nobody will be forced to leave Hyd.
- I wonder, if it makes sense to say that x % of Hyd revenues will go to develop this new capital..
- In summary, BJP needs to talk about the future and emphasize on bhaicara... etc; like what Modi did recently in Hyd.
- 100 lashes ( :) to any jerk in BJP who is going jingo on Telangana and pissing off Seeamandra people unnecessarily.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Karan M » 06 Oct 2013 03:34

If making Hyderabad a permanent joint capital makes it like Chandigarh, with Punjab and Haryana peacefully living besides and betwixt each other, that would be a good thing. And bring the Andhra people closer. Thoughts?

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 06 Oct 2013 03:41

vivek.rao wrote:What is the Telugu Brahmin fascination with Jagan and EJs? They love Jihad and EJfication now?

There is no love of Jagan in the first place.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 06 Oct 2013 03:43

Karan M, non-contiguity is a problem. Hyderabad is almost bang in the middle of Telangana.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SwamyG » 06 Oct 2013 03:46

Karan M wrote:If making Hyderabad a permanent joint capital makes it like Chandigarh, with Punjab and Haryana peacefully living besides and betwixt each other, that would be a good thing. And bring the Andhra people closer. Thoughts?

Chandigarh bordered the two States, right? Hyderabad would be well inside 'Telangana' state with no geographical link to the 'Andhra' state. It would be weird to have a capital outside the state's geographical boundaries. Joint capital is just a recipe for more takleef in the future.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 06 Oct 2013 03:54

Narayana Rao wrote:
vivek.rao wrote:What is the Telugu Brahmin fascination with Jagan and EJs? They love Jihad and EJfication now?

There is no love of Jagan in the first place.


of Prashant’s house, a farmer from the Kamma community. “I voted for YSR in 2009 because he genuinely did good to farmers but this time, it will be for Telugu Desam,” he declared. Within no time, Nagaraju, a Brahmin and a teacher who owns 10 acres, literally pounced on the farmer. “What wrong has Jagan done? Who is clean in present day politics? No one talks about missing coal files in the PMO but everyone questions how Jagan got bail?


Not first time. I have seen several other instances of this from several Telugu folks especially Brahmins

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 06 Oct 2013 04:15

But there is no community voting for him sir. Jagan and YSR criminals created the idea that corruption is everywhere. You ask anyone in AP, they may say the same thing. The basic idea is to make looting a non issue. Just like mafia doing in Delhi. But u have to note that CBN won most seats in Panchayath elections in entire AP despite being in opposition. This is 3 months back. 2009 lost by him by 1% vote after chirangivi stole 18%. Anti congress votes to CBN this time will help him to win handsomely. That is why mafia decided to divide AP.
Last edited by Yagnasri on 06 Oct 2013 04:16, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 06 Oct 2013 04:16

Image

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 06 Oct 2013 04:25

Image

Image

Yagnasri
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 06 Oct 2013 04:38

1. Joint capital will not allow overwhelming advantage in Telangana.
2. INC continued in power in AP by manipulation. it fears lose of AP in a anti mafia sweep now. So the division.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 06 Oct 2013 05:15

Congress high command is now Blackmailing State congress leaders from Seemandhra with income tax/CBI investigations on their black deeds if they cross the limit on Telangana

Image

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 06 Oct 2013 05:30

vishvak wrote:This blindsiding of Andhra samaaj is a big concern, is it not. This is why NDA should immediately clarify on steps such as creating twin cities near Telangan border and such. Such a clarity would help all- including Telangan and Seemandhr.

The issue of Telangan is only used during elections but it is used since 1956 and not yet resolved. It is not the job of political parties as well as dillibillis to have amendable resolution? The gaming of fear mongering is not civilized. NDA achieved such resolutions quite well and quite peacefully.


Yes it is a concern. Then where is the national responsibility to unblind it? So far most national leaders come and say we are giving Telangana in 100 days or tomorrow. Did anyone even once talk to untangle it? Only Modi said in an equal tone. The national leaders needs to repeat consistently that kind of tone.

The congress party (national ones) are very clear to create the fear and dance to use it for electoral purposes. The common population has no means to think right. It is always the biggies in the society that makes it or breaks it. Go and read any world history. It is the clear failure of all the biggies together.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 06 Oct 2013 05:45

vivek.rao wrote:What is the Telugu Brahmin fascination with Jagan and EJs? They love Jihad and EJfication now?


Why in the cow belt (UP) the Brahmins vote to Sonia/Rahul congress? Why not Mulayam?

Jagan == EJ is only on super-duper idle analysts on forums such as this :). In the normal caste arithmetic, Brahmins are back office boys of the rulers Reddys. This combination is what congress worked for several ages. TDP came with a game change to this setup but in the process they went anti-Brahmin. In normal times also they go with anyone who can defeat TDP. In 1998 when BJP went alone, large portions of this section went with BJP. This time there is no chance as BJP is seen as a divider of the state.

They see congress as dead and the party's inheritor is Jagan Reddy. The whole EJ ****** is only on the digital world. People are not ready to listen that yet. The blinding is far deeper and Telangana issue has made more deeper darkness to Telugus.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 06 Oct 2013 05:53

Rony wrote:Image


This is good comment. While back I made similar comment like whether Congress takes such gamble to risk losing entire eastern coast-line.

Now that they did, we need to see their gamble pays off. Unfortunately, Karnataka screwup by BJP made Congress cocky to take decision on AP.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 06 Oct 2013 05:55

Narayana Rao wrote:But there is no community voting for him sir. Jagan and YSR criminals created the idea that corruption is everywhere. You ask anyone in AP, they may say the same thing. The basic idea is to make looting a non issue. Just like mafia doing in Delhi. But u have to note that CBN won most seats in Panchayath elections in entire AP despite being in opposition. This is 3 months back. 2009 lost by him by 1% vote after chirangivi stole 18%. Anti congress votes to CBN this time will help him to win handsomely. That is why mafia decided to divide AP.



I hope you are right

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 06 Oct 2013 06:00

vivek.rao wrote:
Narayana Rao wrote:"vivek.rao": What is the Telugu Brahmin fascination with Jagan and EJs? They love Jihad and EJfication now?
There is no love of Jagan in the first place.


of Prashant’s house, a farmer from the Kamma community. “I voted for YSR in 2009 because he genuinely did good to farmers but this time, it will be for Telugu Desam,” he declared. Within no time, Nagaraju, a Brahmin and a teacher who owns 10 acres, literally pounced on the farmer. “What wrong has Jagan done? Who is clean in present day politics? No one talks about missing coal files in the PMO but everyone questions how Jagan got bail?


Not first time. I have seen several other instances of this from several Telugu folks especially Brahmins


Three instances TDP went against their interests. Probably such hatred still lingers on in some for them to abandon Congress/YSRC. Vundavalli Arunakumar resigning for MP seat as well as to Congress party is good sign. TDP and BJP should capture such people.

1. Abolishment of Patel-Patwari-Karanam system. Karanams are Brahmins
2. Abolishment of Mirasidarulu (shareholders) system in Temples. Vast majority of Mirasidarulu were Brahmins
3. Being tough on Babus system (from IAS to low-level government employees). Although it affected everyone. Many Brahmin Babus were actively campaigning against TDP.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 06 Oct 2013 06:07

ShyamSP wrote:This is good comment. While back I made similar comment like whether Congress takes such gamble to risk losing entire eastern coast-line.

Now that they did, we need to see their gamble pays off. Unfortunately, Karnataka screwup by BJP made Congress cocky to take decision on AP.


Unless YSRC loses, we cannot consider that congress is really lost.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 06 Oct 2013 06:13

Muppalla wrote:
ShyamSP wrote:This is good comment. While back I made similar comment like whether Congress takes such gamble to risk losing entire eastern coast-line.

Now that they did, we need to see their gamble pays off. Unfortunately, Karnataka screwup by BJP made Congress cocky to take decision on AP.


Unless YSRC loses, we cannot consider that congress is really lost.


YSRC doesn't have very strong sthanabalam in Coastal districts except for western Prakasam. Nellore Reddys although support, they have their own mind. Their loyal votebank in Coastal is EJ votebank.

TDP need to ensure INC and YSRC are divided in local level despite they purpose and agreement at higher level.
Last edited by ShyamSP on 06 Oct 2013 06:14, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 06 Oct 2013 06:13

manju wrote:The seemandra people participating in bandh/violence is ridiculous. They are destroying their own property and disrupting their own lives.

I think the mob mentality has taken over and I doubt if aam janth knows why they are doing what they are doing.

If I were BJP, I would stress on:
- Congress and YRSRC (its min me) as the cause of this hatred. Making fellow telugu people hate each other.
- Just because brothers separate out in real life.. they dont have to hate each other. They are still connected by Andhra Talli (andhra mother) and maintain good family ties. I feel Modi can weave a nice story/thread and bring out this point.
- emphasize if telugu people are making it big in Benglauru and Chennai whey they cannot make big in each other's state.
- There is a golden opportunity for BJP to repeat emphasize on this.. just like Modi did in Hyd speech.
- If we BJP come to power in center we will allocate x 1000 crore to develop a new capital that will be world class (aka Chandigarh, etc build from scratch). Disclaimer: I have not a clue about the details- the logistics and finances).
- We will ensure nobody will be forced to leave Hyd.
- I wonder, if it makes sense to say that x % of Hyd revenues will go to develop this new capital..
- In summary, BJP needs to talk about the future and emphasize on bhaicara... etc; like what Modi did recently in Hyd.
- 100 lashes ( :) to any jerk in BJP who is going jingo on Telangana and pissing off Seeamandra people unnecessarily.


+100.

TDP should start telling to Seemandhra about no going back on unification. Prepare to fight for rights. Put the blame entirely on 10 year rule of YSR+INC+Jagan for the mess. They need to explain honestly their inabilities to differently. Now give a hope of new life with a new big city for jobs (Visakhapatnam) and another capital city if vizag is not acceptable. Lobby for regional dev council for Rayalaseema. Bring the BJP's Modi to center face of Seemandhra. Cool down the folks. Make sure that TRS+INC does not win big in T region by yielding to BJP.

This way even if the states are divided the treachery can be defeated.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 06 Oct 2013 06:15

ShyamSP wrote:YSRC doesn't have very strong sthanabalam in Coastal districts except for western Prakasam. Nellore Reddys although support, they have their own mind. Their loyal votebank in Coastal is EJ votebank.


Out of curiosity, if Naidu gets elected, can he dismantle the EJ power structure?

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 06 Oct 2013 06:18

nageshks wrote:
ShyamSP wrote:YSRC doesn't have very strong sthanabalam in Coastal districts except for western Prakasam. Nellore Reddys although support, they have their own mind. Their loyal votebank in Coastal is EJ votebank.


Out of curiosity, if Naidu gets elected, can he dismantle the EJ power structure?


They were really lethargic in the last round. But this time they will if they come to power. This time if the BJP+TDP materializes, there will really be more action.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 06 Oct 2013 06:21

If Samuel Reddy wins SA, both Telangana and Seemandhra will have Congress&Allies govt with Reddy chief ministers in both.More things change, more remains the same :lol:

Race for Telangana CM post hots up

With the Cabinet nod for Telangana, there are more than half-a-dozen contenders for the Telangana state Chief Minister’spost.

The jubilant Telangana Congress leaders now expect formation of T state by December as Central Congress leadership is keen to get the Telangana Bill passed during this Winter Session.

It is only matter of adjusting the schedule of the Parliament’s Winter Session, as the Election Commission decided on Friday to hold elections to five state Assemblies in November-December.


Normally the Winter Session of Parliament commences on November 23 and concludes on December 22. This time, there may be a slight change in the schedule this time owing to Assembly polls.

Several big names are doing the rounds in Telangana Congress circles, including that of Union minister S. Jaipal Reddy who has an honest and clean image and amicable nature apart from seniority in politics.

Panchayat Raj minister K. Jana Reddy, housing minister N. Uttamkumar Reddy and information minister D.K. Aruna are the other contenders from the same (Reddy) community. Deputy Chief Minister Damodar Raja Narasimha is also an important contender for the post.

Among the other names being discussed are former PCC president D. Srinivas and IT minister Ponnala Laxmaiah who hails from a backward community, and civil supplies minister D. Sridhar Babu, a Brahmin.

After formation of Telangana state, the total strength of the Telangana state ministry, including the chief minister, will be reduced to 18 (15 per cent of the total Assembly strength of 119) as per the statute.

If one goes by its present strengths across various parties in Telangana, the Congress will be the largest political party in the new state with 48 MLAs, it falls short of a simple majority in the house of 119.

Unless the Congress decides to share power with likeminded TRS with 17 members or with MIM which has 7 members, it will be difficult to form the government in the opposition-dominated Telangana Assembly
.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Prem » 06 Oct 2013 06:46

Madhu Kishwar ‏@madhukishwar 8h
Hard hitting comment by Jagan Reddy: "Sonia has cleared Andhra division just to make Rahul Gandhi PM"
Expand

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 06 Oct 2013 07:05

Vizianagaram is having curfew first time in its History

Curfew in Vizianagaram as violence continues

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 06 Oct 2013 07:11

ShyamSP wrote:Many Brahmin Babus were actively campaigning against TDP.
Weell, one of my classmates who is a brahmin and a babu was an adviser to CBN. CBN himself was in Congress and was close to Sanjay Gandhi (a 1/2 brahmin-1/2 parsi). I don't know where you are getting your stories from or for that matter (latest) history. Granted you are on the ground (I am taking you at face value and giving you the benefit of doubt - not that it matters).

In any case, Andhra turning violent is not good for the state(s) nor good for themselves, IMHO.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 06 Oct 2013 07:22

ShyamSP wrote:Karanams are Brahmins

In Telangana that is what they are called. In Andhra (well, if you prefer I will use your word - ceded), they are called karNa kamma vEpArlu (which is actually vyApArulu - mercantile). There are also "Aru vEla niyOgulu" or a straight translation "six thousand without yOga" - not sure whether the "six thousand" refers to 6000 communities or 6000 progenitors. But please to continue.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 06 Oct 2013 07:29

manju wrote:They are still connected by Andhra Talli (andhra mother) and maintain good family ties.


Make that "Andhra talli and telugu tanDri" just like my kids or "telugu talli and Andhra tanDri" in case of Muppalla gari extended family.

Or do you believe the song should have been "mA Andhra talli ki malle pU danDa" instead of "mA telugu talli ki mallepU danDa"?

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 06 Oct 2013 07:43

Pro-Telangana Twitter folks are promoting this video about a Nizam era 1857 veteran.Not sure why they picked this one of all the people.

Telangana Hero Pathan Turrey Bhaj Khan.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3EGS65yI3c
Last edited by Rony on 06 Oct 2013 07:48, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 06 Oct 2013 07:46

matrimc wrote:
ShyamSP wrote:Many Brahmin Babus were actively campaigning against TDP.
Weell, one of my classmates who is a brahmin and a babu was an adviser to CBN. CBN himself was in Congress and was close to Sanjay Gandhi (a 1/2 brahmin-1/2 parsi). I don't know where you are getting your stories from or for that matter (latest) history. Granted you are on the ground (I am taking you at face value and giving you the benefit of doubt - not that it matters).

In any case, Andhra turning violent is not good for the state(s) nor good for themselves, IMHO.


If you take away the exceptions, ShyamSP's description is on dot regarding Brahmins and TDP. It is difficult to change. Also, read the vengeance against Brahmins written by now banned Ashok Gottipati. Those are the reason why Brahmins of AP may easily go with Jinnah instead of CBN. These are fissures that makes Jagan acceptable.

But Jagan's acceptability is being inferred here as some thing like Andhra has 75% Christians. In reality even an exxagarate count does not put at 20% even in a worse affected district like prakasam.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 06 Oct 2013 08:22

^^ Even if it is 20%, they blindly vote for him where as Hindus are not even aware of the situation. They support Jagan for their own vested interests or corrupt practices.

Muppalla
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 06 Oct 2013 08:28

vivek.rao wrote:^^ Even if it is 20%, they blindly vote for him where as Hindus are not even aware of the situation. They support Jagan for their own vested interests or corrupt practices.


90% of AP Christians as dalits. Irrespective of their religion dalits always vote INC. INC==YSR and it is natural that they will solidly vote for Jagan especially he himself is Christian. The 1980s caste combinations did not change much in AP it only got divided into multiple parties. Reddy+Dalit+Brahmins+Muslims are always INC. Kammas+BCs are always TDP. Kapus are the swing. Christian conversion hasn't changed this equation. This whole Jagan is Christian and hence a lot has changed is all armchair analysis. In fact it is otherway round. His religion is actually being used to polarize against him by his opponents.

vivek.rao
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 06 Oct 2013 08:52

^^ This theory will be tested in the elections. I only wish you are right.

Theoretically even if 20% of the Dalit/Christians stay with CONGis, that should hurt CONgis and Jagan. We have to see if it works that way
Last edited by vivek.rao on 06 Oct 2013 09:14, edited 1 time in total.

Vayutuvan
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 06 Oct 2013 09:10

vivek.rao wrote:What is the best thing Modi should do now?
...
5. Support a clandestine faction and create violence to prevent elections in Seema Andhra in 2014

Most people say Modi+Naidu do some thing but what some thing? Define


Sire, do you really want to keep No. 5 in that list of yours after this?

vivek.rao says thusly wrote:No one is ready for big message. Sonia made sure that every Indian hates the guy next to him. Smart move.


There is a theory that one can win chess games by mirroring the opponent's moves. You believe?

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 06 Oct 2013 09:14

I believe that the Kamma-Brahmin tussle goes back much further. The early 20th century Non-Brahmin movement in Andhra was spearheaded by Justice party dominated by Kammas like Tripurneni Ramaswamy Choudhary and Duggirala Raghavachadraiah.I read somewhere that there used to be debates in early 1900s between the orthodox Brahmins who refused to allow Kammas (and Reddis and Velamas) to practise Vedic rites and refusing to acknowledge them as kshatriyas and the Kammas in turn mocking the Brahmins about how the Kamma ancestor rulers gave agraharas to Brahmins and quoting scriptures to prove that one does not have to be a Brahmin to do vedic rites. Unlike the Tamil anti-brahmin movement which equated brahmanism = hinduism and hence anti-brahmanism = anti hinduism, the Telugu non-brahmin movement spearheaded by Kammas in early and mid 1900s was anti brahmin but Pro-Hindu. In fact the Kamma leader Duggirala Raghavachadraiah even started a Hindu national congress in opposition to congress party in Andhra (dominated by brahmins at that time) which he viewed as brahmin nationalism as opposed to Hindu nationalism.

May be this is a OT for this thread, I never understood why so many communities have beef with the Kammas who are not more than 4 or 5 % of AP population.They have issues with the Reddis, Brahmins and even Kapus. They are like the Jews of AP -very few in numbers but extremely intelligent and successful which results in resentment and jealousy and accusations of 'kamma domination' and 'kamma conspiracy'
Last edited by Rony on 06 Oct 2013 09:18, edited 1 time in total.

Muppalla
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 06 Oct 2013 09:17

vivek.rao wrote:^^ This theory will be tested in the elections. I only wish you are right.


As many try to analyze, this Christianity and EJism unfortunately is/was never a election issue in the mentally bania state like Seemandhra. Not of that sort will happen in election.

Jagan's advantage is that he is YSR's son and YSR is always for united AP and he served the interests of poor, Reddys and stopped Kammas from occupying too much of space. That is what will go to elections and EJism or Christianity are never issues anyway.

CBN's advantage is that there was no mess during his time and he is the reason for progress and he needs to be brought back. Kammas and BCs traditionally voted for him and he will get the same.

The violence against Botsa in vijayanagaram will have repercussions. Which way kapus will swing will decide few seats. My hunch is they will swing to both Jagan and TDP.

This entire EJ growth is a mirage to me. I made a field trip about an year ago. I really did not see any massive new establishments that was not there in my childhood. So I asked a friend of mine what the hell is this hurrah. He told me that "you are too foolish to just see establishments. see each hill top and you will see a cross there". I said then what's the difference, all those dalits who were anyway converting during 80 rapidly. He said to me then they were converting and now there is none who is not converted. So a 5% may have reached 20% in certain districts.

My point is today we have an icon like YSR, or Jagan to punch a bag. But this was a sustained effort that went on during the rule of TDP. The growth of EJs is far higher during TDP rule than under the star called YSR. In the name of rationalism, the merchantile elites have left this to thrive. Punching a big cross holder like Jagan will not cut ice with AP population. If you talk about Jagan as some serious cultural destructor with AP population, they will laugh at you because the growth of this menace is way older than YSRs.

Right now Jagan is savior that the villians BJP or congress did not help them. TDP and CBN did not have similar potential to stop the division. The politics of not-going with the popular mood is the casuality that we are seeing and Jagan is a default benefactor in this region. Casting aspiration on population as some cultureless folks is what's going on in discussions which is also natural for those who are at 100,000 feet view.


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