AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 07 Oct 2013 18:40

It is time for BJP as opposition party to gather its experience during NDA -or any time when such processes occured- and given clear options or what will NDA do.

Any state in India is proper place for democratic process and proceeds. Dilli billi tantrums at cost of public money doesn't mean anything.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 07 Oct 2013 18:42

Dasari wrote: If Jagan assures people of SA that he will never support Congress after elections, the division may be stoped. He may go back to jail as breach of contract but the division may stop as Congress cannot afford to forfeit SA.

The trust deficit is running too deep in SA. They will no believe at all. They need action and that too immediately.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 07 Oct 2013 19:36

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 07 Oct 2013 19:49

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/131007/n ... seemandhra

Nellore BJP plans to back Seemandhra
____________________________

my prediction is BJP will end up na-ghar-ka-na-ghat-ka.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 07 Oct 2013 19:59

The tantrums in AP bhavan must come to light. It is indicative of dilli billis not able to do anything anywhere well unless it benefits cronies in terms of propaganda.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 07 Oct 2013 20:10

(Cross-posting)
I just spoke with an agent from AP (a neutral observer, not a khaki, pink, or lal chaddi wala) and below are his views (TIFWIW):

1. People are fed-up with Congress in both Telangana and Seema, not only because of the bifurcation mess but also because of rising prices and all the scams
2. Telangana people also know that TRS is corrupt to the core, and may throw them away like a paki condom after the bifurcation
3. There are some constituencies in Seema where Congress will win because of local congress leadership irrespective of any other factor
4. People are aware of Jagan's antics and corruption too and they do not trust him at all
5. A new powerful front (non Jagan, non-Congress, non-TDP) in Seema may emerge with time
6. CBN is not all that hated in Telangana because it was he who initially prompted the bifurcation idea
7. Telangana people remember that BJP supports the division
8. TDP is likely to emerge stronger in both Seema and Telangana because of the above. His estimate is that CBN will win 40% of the seats.
9. Modi is highly respected and liked all over AP, and in a direct contest between Modi and Rahul, he is likely to emerge as a clear winner (I guess that's how BJP should frame the next election)
10. CBN+Modi is likely to result in more than 50% seats going in their kitty in both regions
11. Seema agitation will ultimately fizzle-out in a month or so and the division will be firmed-up on the ground. People have already accepted the idea in their mind and are now thinking about the next step.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 07 Oct 2013 20:17

Also remember how Sonia was elected con race president by kicking out former one. Sonia's style now catching on in AP bhavan?

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 07 Oct 2013 20:40

Ashok Sarraff wrote:(Cross-posting)
I just spoke with an agent from AP (a neutral observer, not a khaki, pink, or lal chaddi wala) and below are his views (TIFWIW):

1. People are fed-up with Congress in both Telangana and Seema, not only because of the bifurcation mess but also because of rising prices and all the scams
2. Telangana people also know that TRS is corrupt to the core, and may throw them away like a paki condom after the bifurcation
3. There are some constituencies in Seema where Congress will win because of local congress leadership irrespective of any other factor
4. People are aware of Jagan's antics and corruption too and they do not trust him at all
5. A new powerful front (non Jagan, non-Congress, non-TDP) in Seema may emerge with time
6. CBN is not all that hated in Telangana because it was he who initially prompted the bifurcation idea
7. Telangana people remember that BJP supports the division
8. TDP is likely to emerge stronger in both Seema and Telangana because of the above. His estimate is that CBN will win 40% of the seats.
9. Modi is highly respected and liked all over AP, and in a direct contest between Modi and Rahul, he is likely to emerge as a clear winner (I guess that's how BJP should frame the next election)
10. CBN+Modi is likely to result in more than 50% seats going in their kitty in both regions
11. Seema agitation will ultimately fizzle-out in a month or so and the division will be firmed-up on the ground. People have already accepted the idea in their mind and are now thinking about the next step.

Ashok,

I agree with most of it, except point #4. I think Jagan's party will emerge as single largest party. The CBN's interview in Delhi is very good. If he can take that message consistently across AP, he can overtake Jagan. But in the long run, your comment about new party or coalition emerging out of SA is a definte possibility. In that respect what is happening in SA should be welcomed. We need to turn this into revolution.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 07 Oct 2013 20:50

Dasari, welcome back. What is your read on the political situation in AP. A detailed reply is welcomed!!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Oct 2013 20:59

My hunch also is Jagan will emerge single largest party. iexpect INC will replace KKR with someone else.

We are also seeing demographics at work.

disha · Post by **disha** » 07 Oct 2013 21:03

Muppalla wrote:Every leader worth their salt know that T state is inevitable and then why there are agitations? It is a chaos that Sonia wants in SA region to help Modi factor never enters. BJP and TDP needs to seal the deal and announce it fast. CBN has to yield a lot for this round and the Delhi fast is most foolish thing to do IMO.

Actually that is what I expected of CBN! He is pitching himself directly against Jagan and actually elevating Jagan and lowering himself. He does not realize the Dilli media tricks of focus on Jagan and any positive to SA will be attributed to Jagan., and further from latest news there are indications of disrupting CBN's fast. And CBN is undermining himself.

What CBN should do is be in SA and start taking charge of protests. And give it proper direction. There is a huge power vacuum in SA and that can be utilized by CBN to step in. And as I pointed out earlier, he does not need to be king, but king maker. He needs to launch somebody from NTR family - basically Jr. NTR as a visible icon for a power center for SA's aspirations.

Long term, TDP should think of becoming BJP-B team in SA/Telangana.

Can CBN do it? Or will he back-stab himself again? The way CBN is now is like HP Inc., never misses an opportunity to miss an oppurtunity.

disha · Post by **disha** » 07 Oct 2013 21:07

ramana wrote:My hunch also is Jagan will emerge single largest party. iexpect INC will replace KKR with someone else.

We are also seeing demographics at work.

And if that happens, major fault will be CBN's! This is an excellent opportunity to destroy Jagan & CongIs from SA for at least next 10-20 years. New commanders on the field need to be brought in. I just suggested that time is ripe for NTR Jr to step in and become the vox populi of SA (and he can do his chota-mota rebellion within TDP to form TDP-B). Yes he may become big and become TDP itself and there is risk of CBN having a curtailed career!

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 07 Oct 2013 21:41

disha wrote:
ramana wrote:My hunch also is Jagan will emerge single largest party. iexpect INC will replace KKR with someone else.

We are also seeing demographics at work.
And if that happens, major fault will be CBN's! This is an excellent opportunity to destroy Jagan & CongIs from SA for at least next 10-20 years. New commanders on the field need to be brought in. I just suggested that time is ripe for NTR Jr to step in and become the vox populi of SA (and he can do his chota-mota rebellion within TDP to form TDP-B). Yes he may become big and become TDP itself and there is risk of CBN having a curtailed career!

Jagan beyond a 3-4 districts is less influentially, like in 125+ seats esp in Coastal . We saw rural people voting in recent Panchayat elections. Traditional vote bank of TDP that got destroyed by INC antics with YSR and PRP is coming back. It is lot more work for TDP in Telangana to beat the INC/TRS combo. In non_T areas, INC weakened further after announcement so it is only Jagan now and it is reason TDP is putting more focus on Jagan than INC. Once TDP makes Jagan weaker the INC+YSRC deal weakens.

CBN with his fasting is doing more pressure on INC to relent to negotiations that INC tactfully/cruelly avoided so far. Once central INC come directly negotiations instead of managing through proxies/illegitimate leaders, it is different ball game. Once INC and Center come to negotiations INC will have to answer to peoples' demands.

There was drama enacted by Chidu with KCR in 2009 to announce T for Sonia's Birthday. Now there is another drama through note to pass bill before next the Birthday. Looks like Gandhis are obsessed to have some great events and celebrations on their Birthday. So for opposition it is 2-month project to trip Congress on T actions.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 07 Oct 2013 22:01

devesh wrote:http://www.deccanchronicle.com/131007/n ... seemandhra

Nellore BJP plans to back Seemandhra
____________________________

my prediction is BJP will end up na-ghar-ka-na-ghat-ka.

BJP is no where and wish to win few in Telanaga. They may. As for as their proposal for agitation I hope they survive their drama with all their limbs.

disha · Post by **disha** » 07 Oct 2013 22:07

ShyamSP'ji., if that is the way you are describing - more power to you. I think this is a golden opportunity to finish of CongI-YSR/Jagan in SA for good. Telangana being a small rump part of AP can be brought around easily - Telangana is landlocked - nearest ports are either vishakapatnam or machilipatnam. Machilipatnam can be developed as the commercial port freeing Vizag for naval.

So any government in Telangana can be brought around to negotiating table if SA is under control. The same holds for SA (waters/minerals etc) but SA has options to minimize such an impact from Telangana.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 07 Oct 2013 22:19

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 07 Oct 2013 22:23

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 07 Oct 2013 22:26

The krishnarjun guy is right,
No caste should be solely bearing such burden in current Bharat - as be it in the past or present all have equally effed up in creating the messed up situation in "aaj ka Bharat"

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 07 Oct 2013 22:35

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Oct 2013 22:37

its not right to target any particular group any time.

Meanwhile Jagan says:

Keep AP united, I will develop Telangana

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 07 Oct 2013 22:41

Kakathiyas fell due to caste fight? This is the new one. How did it happen.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Oct 2013 23:04

Hisotry being invented as they go along.

I guess Muhammad Tughlaq didn't have anything to do!

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 07 Oct 2013 23:12

Sushupti wrote:

I thought Khammam is native Kamma dominant area in Telangana. Current Khamman MP (Nama Nageswar Rao) and ex-MP (Renuka Choudhary) are native Kammas.

Besides Khammam there are a lot of migrant population (post 1900) to Godavari Rivers areas in Karimnagar and Nizamabad.
Post AP formation, there are many migrants in Hyderabad/Ranga Reddi districts.

Main grudge is against these migrants whether Kammas or Reddies into Hyderabad.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 07 Oct 2013 23:26

Narayana Rao wrote:Kakathiyas fell due to caste fight? This is the new one. How did it happen.

Probably he is referring to Musunuri Nayakas' (Kammas) Kakatiya who fell due to Recherla Nayakas (Velamas) supporting and taking support from Bahmanis. Vema Reddy of Addanki who was with Musunuris retained rest of Kakatiya other than Warangal and Bhuvanagiri (Bhongiri nearer to Hyderabad) and ruled Reddy Kingdom from Kondaveedu and later from Rajamahedravaram, which eventually got absorbed into Vijayanagara.

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 07 Oct 2013 23:52

I think Jagan will win SA as Xtians are over 30% in AP. Add to that 12% Muslims and AP is firmly out of BJP's grasp.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 08 Oct 2013 00:04

TonySoprano wrote:I think Jagan will win SA as Xtians are over 30% in AP. Add to that 12% Muslims and AP is firmly out of BJP's grasp.

Dude - instead of spouting rubbish about India (about which you have demonstrated your lack of knowledge, time and again), start worrying about Buddhism in Cambodia and Mongolia. Buddhism is going to join the dodo in both countries in a generation or two. The rate at which Christianity is spreading in the former Communist cadres destines Buddhism to the museums there. By the way, if and when Communism breaks in Vietnam, Buddhism is going to die there as well.

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 08 Oct 2013 00:13

nageshks wrote:
TonySoprano wrote:I think Jagan will win SA as Xtians are over 30% in AP. Add to that 12% Muslims and AP is firmly out of BJP's grasp.
Dude - instead of spouting rubbish about India (about which you have demonstrated your lack of knowledge, time and again), start worrying about Buddhism in Cambodia and Mongolia. Buddhism is going to join the dodo in both countries in a generation or two. The rate at which Christianity is spreading in the former Communist cadres destines Buddhism to the museums there. By the way, if and when Communism breaks in Vietnam, Buddhism is going to die there as well.

What are you taking about, in Cambodia there is a revival of the Sangha like no other. I bet Buddhism will last longer than you Hindus who can't even stand up to the Islamic and Christian threat.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 08 Oct 2013 00:27

TonySoprano wrote: What are you taking about, in Cambodia there is a revival of the Sangha like no other. I bet Buddhism will last longer than you Hindus who can't even stand up to the Islamic and Christian threat.

Dude - the number of Christians was 2000 in 1987 in Cambodia (Pol Pot butchered them all). Today it is about 300-400K (depending on what source you want to believe). The entire hill tribes of Khmer Loeu are being converted en masse.

In Mongolia, Christians were non-existent in 1992. The first Christian missions arrived in 1997-98, In 2010, it was approximately 3%. They have a target of 10% Christians by 2020, and are well on their way to reaching that target.

In Andhra, even in the most missionary pasand district of Praksasm, the Christian population is not yet 20%. Where did you pull your 30% Christian statistics from? Don't worry about us Yindoos. We can take care of ourselves. Start worrying about your Buddhists, who are getting their heads handed to them by everyone, everywhere from Tibet and South Korea to (southern) Thailand and Indonesia.

I am a regular visitor to Japan, and visit Buddhist shrines often when I go there. This time, in Japan too, there were vanishingly few Buddhists, even in major Buddhist shrines like Oto Kannon in the Nagoya region. On the other hand, I saw a lot more devotees in the Shinto temples, like the Atsuta shrines. Wonder why that is so ....

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 08 Oct 2013 01:13

let's stop falling for troll baits! please ignore such posts and don't respond. you only add fuel to fire!
thread will go completely OT.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Oct 2013 02:51

Uncertainty stares at flip-flop Jagan

YSR Congress president YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, out of jail after 16 months, finds life outside no different. The heady days of June last year, when he won 15 of the 18 Assembly bypolls, are a blur at best. Caught between the devil and the deep sea as it were, he finds himself in an unenviable position.

His inconsistent stand on division of the state—he had initially demanded justice for Telangana and now, opposes a separate state altogether—absence of strong cadre and more importantly, talk of his alleged deal with the Congress, widely believed to be the reason for his bail, have put the YSRC chief on the backfoot.

Though Jagan launched an indefinite hunger strike on Saturday against division of the state, his united Andhra Pradesh stand has been questioned for a good reason. By pitching openly for Seemandhra interests, he has vacated political space in Telangana for good. Denting his credibility further are statements from Congress leaders that he was released on bail after a deal with the party leadership. This apart, his U-turn from ‘respecting Telangana sentiment’ to ‘opposing bifurcation’ has not gone down well even with people in Seemandhra as it flies in the face of his own oft-repeated claim that he doesn’t go back on his word. A joke doing the rounds in political circles is that though Jagan claims he is committed to an integrated state, he is desperate, even more than the separatists themselves, to have the state divided for he could have a free run in Seemandhra.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Oct 2013 02:55

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Oct 2013 03:03

BJP Seemandhra leaders force rethink on support for Telangana

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — comfortable so far in Andhra Pradesh despite virtually backing the Congress move to divide the state — has received the first jolt on Wednesday.

Its leaders in the coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions — now being called Seemandhra — are pressing the party for a clear shift from its commitment to the creation of Telangana.

On Wednesday, even as the home ministry was preparing a note on Telangana for next day’s cabinet meeting, more than 70 BJP leaders from the 13 Seemandhra districts met party chief Rajnath Singh and veteran LK Advani.

They wanted the party to go slow on its Telangana policy, considering the 65-day public protests in the region against the Congress decision. “We cannot be blind to the anger pouring out on the streets,” one of the BJP leaders from Seemandhra told HT.

BJP national executive member Somu Veerraju said, “They (Singh and Advani) listened patiently and reacted positively. But we want them to take a strong stand to reflect our concerns.”

The BJP passed its first resolution on Telangana in 1997 — even before the Telangana Rashtra Samithi was formed exclusively on the statehood demand — and has been pressuring the UPA for bringing in the bill. But now, it faces the same internal niggles as the Congress.

Finally, the party had to issue a statement, saying it would urge the Centre to evolve a proper mechanism to address the Seemandhra concerns while introducing the Telangana bill.

The calculation is clear: Although the party is poised equally in Telangana and Seemandhra with two seats in each region, it has a bigger stake in Seemandhra, which has 25 Lok Sabha seats compared to 17 in Telangana.

But this fresh position of the BJP may spell trouble for the Congress, which has so far been confident of getting the Telangana bill passed in winter session of Parliament with BJP support.

The 25 Lok Sabha MPs from Seemandhra — including 19 from the Congress — may oppose the state’s bifurcation. And parties like the Samajwadi Party and the CPI(M) have already stated their opposition to the division.

What triggered the internal protests in the BJP so late in the day was a comment by leader of opposition in Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj. She said at a rally in Mahbubnagar in Telangana last week that the Congress must honour its decision and give Telangana — including Hyderabad — away.

First, Hyderabad is one of the touchy issues — besides sharing of water, revenues and natural resources — for Seemandhra leaders, as their people are fighting hard to keep Hyderabad and the Bhadrachalam area, which was a part of Andhra before it had been merged with the Telangana region in 1959.

Second, the fact that their leader made the comment while sharing the dais with Telangana Joint Action Committee leaders also provoked a sense of betrayal.

The faux pas caused much heartburn, especially as it might neutralise the gains the party made in coastal Andhra, following its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s rallies.

Modi took extra care during his Andhra tour. At his Hyderabad rally on August 11, he confined himself to blaming the Congress for “mishandling the issue and creating a rift between the two regions”.

With her party in a tight spot, Swaraj is said to have assured at a meeting with Seemandhra leaders on Friday that the party would insist on resolution of all issues before the division.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Oct 2013 03:07

Is that from Vizianagram? What exactly is going on there?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Oct 2013 03:10

Sushma Swaraj was acting like a small party operator. There was no need for her comments before even Congress made its statement.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 08 Oct 2013 03:19

One strategy Bhanapa can follow is to declare that it cannot support the T-Bill in parliament for it cannot bifurcate the state without consent from both sides of the split and put the onus on T-Parties to address the concerns of SA people.

This will achieve few things -
1. For the first time T-vadis will be forced to engage SA people in their state demand.
2. At the same time Bhajapa can facilitate discussions between various interest groups from both sides. Make sure that these discussions happen in public (this can be done)
3. At the same time support T-vadi demand for a separat state.
4. Let both parties comeup with a plan and the endorse it. If INC declines such a compromise let it comeup with an alternative.

So far only congress is leading this process, however political it is. Time for BJP to play the role of right leader.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 08 Oct 2013 03:22

RamaY wrote:One strategy Bhanapa can follow is to declare that it cannot support the T-Bill in parliament for it cannot bifurcate the state without consent from both sides of the split and put the onus on T-Parties to address the concerns of SA people.

This will achieve few things -
1. For the first time T-vadis will be forced to engage SA people in their state demand.
2. At the same time Bhajapa can facilitate discussions between various interest groups from both sides. Make sure that these discussions happen in public (this can be done)
3. At the same time support T-vadi demand for a separat state.
4. Let both parties comeup with a plan and the endorse it. If INC declines such a compromise let it comeup with an alternative.

So far only congress is leading this process, however political it is. Time for BJP to play the role of right leader.

Should the BJP not insist on a resolution from the AP Assembly before the division can be finalised? As I remember, Bihar, MP and UP all passed a resolution approving the formation of the new states. If BJP insists on this precedent, then it can gain some mileage, I think (how much depends on BJP and other circumstances, too).

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Oct 2013 03:33

ramana wrote:Is that from Vizianagram? What exactly is going on there?

The picture is from Anantapur

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Oct 2013 03:34

OK. I heard there is a lot of angst in Vizianagaram, Botsa's home town.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Oct 2013 03:43

Yes.Curfew and shoot at sight orders. The reason why they are targetting Botsa ? Watch this

PCC chief Botsa Satyanarayana double standards on AP bifurcation

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nK2DeQjaJUY

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Oct 2013 03:56

BJP accuses Congress of causing Andhra unrest

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Monday held the Congress Party responsible for the unrest in Andhra Pradesh, caused by the bifurcation decision.

Speaking to media in Allahabad, Uttar Pradesh state, BJP spokesperson Siddharth Nath Singh said: "The way the Congress has bifurcated Andhra Pradesh in a hurry, without consulting anyone, and in view of the vote bank, just before the 2014 elections, they have divided the state. The Bharatiya Janata Party has always supported the formation of Telangana, but it should have been done after having talks with all concerned parties. There is civil unrest in that region."

Violent protests, burning of buildings and telephone towers and huge bonfires were a common site in various parts of the state over the weekend.

Irate anti-state protesters came in groups and attacked the police forces who retaliated with batons. Markets and shops were closed as authorities had imposed a curfew in the region.

But the major brunt of the curfew and violent protests was borne by the common man who could not get his daily supplies of milk and other essential commodities.

Congress lawmaker Panna Lal Punia said in New Delhi: "This is not the first time a new state has been created. Several states were created during the rule of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), States have been bifurcated, including Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. So, this is not a new thing and this was the commitment of the government, it was the will of the people and this bifurcation has been done only after that. And if there is any misunderstanding, it can be resolved through talks. Nothing is impossible."