AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

johneeG
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby johneeG » 01 Jan 2014 14:35

gpati saar,
my present post is based on more intuitions than on 'facts', so take it for what its worth:

I think Buddhism and Jainism were ascetic sects of Vaishnava sect. They were both formed in the region of Ganga-valley. Both of them spread out from this core region. If you look at all the prominent pilgrimages of Buddhism, you will find that they are located in a small cluster in UP-Vihar region. This is the place where Buddhism was born. From there, one branch seems to have spread to Nepal. Another branch went south wards towards the coast. From the coast, one went east wards(i.e. Vangal), while the other towards the south(i.e. towards AP). The Nepal branch went to Kashmir and from there to Afghanisthan. The Vangal and Nepal branch mixed in the Tibet region. From AP, it went further south to TN, and Kerala and then to the west coast.

Jainism may have a more or less similar route. This sort of spread requires long time periods. I am assuming that Buddhism was born at some time during 1500 BCE. While the spread takes several years, some of the regions will give up the Buddhism or Jainism and revert back to Hindhuism. One must also remember that the number of actual formal converts would be quite less. Mostly, most of the people would be followers due to Buddhism or Jainism being perceived as hip/cool/new/rebellious/...etc. When the initial conditions of the success are removed, people revert back.

Another important thing to understand is that Buddhism was driven by elites(intellectuals, traders and rulers). Marginalized intellectuals, traders and rulers could use this new religion for their social/political/economical postures. Naalandha and Thakshashila played a very important role in propagation of Buddhism. Kashmir also played an important role. Varanasi has always been a Hindhu intellectual seat apart from the religious pilgrimage spot. One of the attempts during the spread must have been to take over this seat. But, it seems, it was not complete success. So, instead new intellectual seats were developed. Thakshashila, Nalandha and Kashmir play this role. These places act as the brain. Coastal regions with their trader settlement areas act as the economic engine. The new claimants to throne were offered help if they allowed Buddhism to prosper.

I don't think Andhras or Tamils are the only ones to use the maritime tools to conquer Indo-China. I think most of the eastern coast must have done it at some point. And Buddhism seems to have benefited from this.

Buddhism seems to have two branches primarily:
a) maritime based: this could be the theravada
b) land based: this could be the mahayana

Ironically, the maritime based ones(which conquered Indo-China) used the older version of Buddhism which was born in Vihar/UP region. While the land based ones which conquered Tibet and China used the Mahayana version which was born in south.

It seems, initially, Buddhism was based on Maritime networks. But later, it was able to spread to land networks also(silk route). From there, it went to China. The maritime network must have been able to enter Egypt and Greece.

When the initial conditions for the success were removed, the Bhaarathiya regions generally reverted back to Hindhuism. So, the Buddhist regions(primarily the eastern coast) seems to have reverted back to Vaishnava. Perhaps, the later Vaishnava sects were active in these erstwhile Buddhist regions. Ramanuja, Chaithnaya Mahaprabhu, ...etc. Jaina regions seem to have gone to Shaiva.

Maurya and Shaathavahana period seems to be the time when Buddhism was at its height of glory. From then on, Buddhism's slow decline in Bhaarath seems to have started. It must have taken long time for Buddhism to reach the height and it would consequently take a long time for it to decline.Buddhism always had close collaboration with rulers of Bhaarath who were of foreign origin or rulers who were weak. These rulers seem to have supported Buddhism officially and in turn expected loyalty. Once these foreign origin patrons were lost, Buddhism decline seems to have started. From then on, one sees that Buddhist literature alleges persecutions by the later rulers. What must have happened is that the new kings did not patronize Buddhism(because it had become too powerful for comfort), but they did not persecute it either. One must understand that Buddhism is an organized religion with a church(sanga). This can create a parallel state like setup that can compete with the official state. Once Buddhism weakened in Bhaarath, its trade networks became more mercenary in nature and had to slowly cede space to other maritime powers. Middle-east seems to have gained in maritime networks. The middle-eastern guys slowly took over the maritime network and infact, scavenged on the dying Buddhism in many areas even in land based networks. Viharas were one of the primary targets of the jihadhis. It is ironic because Buddhism seems to have collaborated with these guys mostly in the initial phases.

Before that, one of the maritime branches of Buddhism seems to have spread to Egypt(Alexandria) via Crete. While in Egypt, this branch seems to have lost contact with Bhaarath due to loss of maritime networks. Similarly one of the land based branch seems to have spread to middle east. Once the contact was broken, these branches may have undergone mutation. From Egypt, the branch must have gone to Rome. The land based network in middle east(say syria), spread to the eastern part of Roman empire.

Roman empire officially seems to have patronized this religion with its various sects and tried to make an official religion out of it. This is where X-ism was born.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gpati » 02 Jan 2014 00:40

johneeG garu,

Thank you for answering my questions. Has the caste system existed during the height of Buddhism? My understanding is, varna sytem is not same as caste sytem. A brahmin can become a shudra or vice versa under varna system.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 02 Jan 2014 05:01

There is very high confidence in those who are leaning towards Telangana about the formation of T-state in February. They think that the game is up for the SA-lobby. But on the same lines, the argument is that if we can ward off this bill in last and final parl session the game goes to next parl.

The strategists of main parties TDP, BJP, YSRC, TRS are on planning for both scenarios. This is the reason for non-declaration of alliance. However, seat level adjustments and who will contest from where is being discussed and strategized.

The rumor is that Lagdapati, Purandareswari, Rayapati are joining BJP and will contest from Eluru, Bapatla and Narsaraopeta. So much gossip in vernacular press.

I spoke to a relative who is a pure-T in HYD to wish new year greetings. He is small time real estate biz. I taunted him saying there will no bifurcation and TDP+BJP will get more parl seats, Jagan is not pulling much, TRS may not get much. He replied saying that sir-jee please talk good news and we all want TRS and YSRC winning and we are all betting revival of "our side" business. If TDP wins it will all be huge big fish only.

Bottomline is Hyderabad for movers and shakers of T-movement or rhona-dhona for SA is also Hyderabad. Rest is all just catalyst onlee.

One thing is there and no one even thinks that congress has any chance. The talk is even if bifurcation happens TRS will not go with INC and the strategy of INC in T not working at all. Per somayajulu in YSRC as said to my friend, congress can get some respect if they roll back everything and forget/forgive Jagan and go back to merger with Jagan. He says merger with Jagan gets more seats for INC than merger with TRS.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 02 Jan 2014 05:27

I heard very disquieting reports about spread of foreign mafias in Hyderabad, in particular Russian ones! Nigerians in drug trade dominate. MIM is consolidating all muslims in all Andhra Pradesh and reaching out to Maha and Karnataka old Nizam areas.
Also it seems property values are cut in half.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 02 Jan 2014 08:30

Russian mafia in Hyd! and Nigerians too! sounds like the west coast situation. if true, those signs should not be ignored.

and MIM consolidation is definitely happening. they will gain more space in Hyderabad, going forward. all the signs are there.

the vertical highway connecting Hyderabad to Nizamabad will be a hotbed of mafia activity. even Karimnagar might get roped into this extending presence of a host of colluding interests. as such, the triangle with end points at Hyd-KNagar-N'bad will be the hotspot of concentration (demographic and economic) for the Ashraf-Hindu-elite alliance.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 02 Jan 2014 08:40

Nigerian mafia for sure is there.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 02 Jan 2014 23:44

Lilo wrote:Btw matrimc ji why are you referring to people as if they are animals in your serious arguments?


My inexpert attempt at an animal fable, a type of allegorical form of literary writing, panchatantra being the oldest example and Orwell's Animal Farm one of the most popular. Obviously you don't expect me to come up to their levels :!:
Last edited by Vayutuvan on 03 Jan 2014 10:09, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 03 Jan 2014 06:15

SeemaAndhra MPs getting ready to desert the sinking ship.

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... into-BJP-/

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 03 Jan 2014 10:24

Some more Andhra news.

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/131231/n ... aiah-naidu

Would welcome comments from our resident experts.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 03 Jan 2014 10:42

Mupalla has been saying this since a couple of years. On these very forum.

The idea is to have two parties where they can go:TDP or BJP. these folks need some respite from YSR gang.
Its true Vizag has some BJP appeal.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby a_bharat » 03 Jan 2014 17:19

One Telugu TV channel is speculating that Pawan Kalyan (Chiranjeevi's brother) and/or CBI JD Narayana (who investigated Jagan) might join AAP.

If this happens, they will split the votes that might go to TDP and make it easy for Jagan to sweep SA.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Virupaksha » 03 Jan 2014 17:30

a_bharat wrote:One Telugu TV channel is speculating that Pawan Kalyan (Chiranjeevi's brother) and/or CBI JD Narayana (who investigated Jagan) might join AAP.

If this happens, they will split the votes that might go to TDP and make it easy for Jagan to sweep SA.

AAP will be a superflop in andhra, remember the original experiment was done here by YSR through loksatta. There is a reason why all the lokpal agitations were a complete flop in andhra. CBN tried to take it up, but realized that nobody in andhra cared about it.

There is no issue in andhra other than telangana. Both AAP and Pavan (due to film business reasons) can never take a firm stand one way or other on telangana.

After Chiru's backstabbing, how many of his fans will go for Pavan?
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Virupaksha » 03 Jan 2014 17:35

ramana wrote:Mupalla has been saying this since a couple of years. On these very forum.

The idea is to have two parties where they can go:TDP or BJP. these folks need some respite from YSR gang.
Its true Vizag has some BJP appeal.

BJP will be better off if it doesnt take these high profilers. It is the networks of these people which are important. The lagadapatis and daggupatis are baggages better left alone. People are sick of these faces.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gpati » 03 Jan 2014 18:52

Just a data point. All of my business doing relatives and family acquaintances who were flying high during YSR's tenure are financially struggling since last 1-2 years. They are into real estate, commodities trading, mining, and power plant projects. These are supporting united Andhra and pro Jagan.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 03 Jan 2014 21:45

gpati, about your question on importance of Kakatiya kingdom, Cynthia Talbot has written a book on "Precolonial India in Practise" that is based on study of Kakatiyas. Its available for download. its around 300 pages and 18 Mb or otherwise I would have sent you.

I had a talk with my guest during xmas and we agreed the fall of KK was the root cause of the disarray in Andhra/Telugu people.
We wondered why a local/native reaction to Sultanate rule like in Maharashtra or Karnataka was unable to be formed in AP. One reason was the Mughal garrison was shigted from Aurnangabd to Golkonda by the first Nizam. But still there was no mass resentment against Sultanate rule.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 03 Jan 2014 22:09

ramana wrote:gpati, about your question on importance of Kakatiya kingdom, Cynthia Talbot has written a book on "Precolonial India in Practise" that is based on study of Kakatiyas. Its available for download. its around 300 pages and 18 Mb or otherwise I would have sent you.

I had a talk with my guest during xmas and we agreed the fall of KK was the root cause of the disarray in Andhra/Telugu people.
We wondered why a local/native reaction to Sultanate rule like in Maharashtra or Karnataka was unable to be formed in AP. One reason was the Mughal garrison was shigted from Aurnangabd to Golkonda by the first Nizam. But still there was no mass resentment against Sultanate rule.


Ramana-ji,
If my memory serves me correct, the Musunuri Nayaks did rule Warangal after the fall of the Kakatiya kingdom. IIRC, they even launched a bunch of successful raids against both the Delhi sultanate, and the Bahamani kingdom. The best chance they all had was, when in 1355-56, in alliance with Vijayanagar, Vinayaka Deva (son of Musunuri Kaapaneedu) launched an attack on the Bahamani sultanate. The war went very well initially for the allies, with the Musunuri kingdom capturing Bidar and Kaulas, and Vijayanagar taking Sagar, and Mudhol. However, the death of Harihara I of Vijayanagar led to a brief but ferocious civil war, and Bukka Raya (eventual successor of Harihara I) withdrew from the coalition to secure his own kingdom at home. In the absence of Vijayanagar, Vinayaka Deva was lured into a trap and killed, and the Musunuri Kingdom, with its armies and treasury ruined, went into a death spiral, with Singama of Bhuvanagiri siding with the Bahamani kingdom (due to his enmity with Vema Reddy of Addanki). But even after 1371, the Addanki kingdom remained intact for nearly another century, until it was weakened in conflicts with the both Bahamanis, and the Gajapatis of Kalinga, and merged into Vijayanagar. So - I am not sure why you think there was no reaction. In reality, it was in Maharashtra and the northern half of Karnataka that there was no real successful opposition until Shivaji rose up in the 1600s. The Bahamani hold north of the Krishna was excellent, and even worse, Andhra was caught in a three way conflict between Bahamanis, Gajapatis,and Vijayanagar. But for Vijayanagar, most of its soldiers were recruited from the Rayalseema Mysore regions, so I am not sure we should be so sweeping in our analysis. What is correct to say is that Bahamani hold on Telangana region was very strong, but it was similarly strong in both northern Karnataka, and non-Konkan Maharashtra.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dasari » 04 Jan 2014 19:15

ramana wrote:Mupalla has been saying this since a couple of years. On these very forum.

The idea is to have two parties where they can go:TDP or BJP. these folks need some respite from YSR gang.
Its true Vizag has some BJP appeal.


Vizag was the power house of BJP between 1978 to 1991 where the BJP ruled the city with BJP mayors from NSN Reddy to D Subba Rao. However, this is a distant memory. The demographics of the city have changed a lot with the influx of huge low income labor, migrated from neigbhoring villages and cities, and eventually the city became a victim of vote bank politics. During my last visit two weeks ago, I was shocked to hear the noon time quran broadcasts over public mic sets in a city that has very little muslim population. Yet, the city can boast itself as city of middle class and can turn around for BJP for a leader like Modi. My interactions show huge fan base for Modi and it is inversely proportional to the dramatic decline of Congress in the last 2 years. The alliance with TDP will compensate the lack of cadre that got decimated in the last 20 years. However, the aliiance will not materialize if the state is divided and that is how the game will be played by Congress.

As far as congress, they will lose deposits not only in Vizag but vast majority of seats across seema andhra. The anti congress wave is so intense and I've never seen this kind of hatred towards one party Everybody, from auto rikshaw driver to a raitu bazaar vegetable vendor, can give a lecture on congress ill intent on the division. Any amount of money is a futile excercise and most of the congress leaders are willing to sit sideline. It is amazing how congress HC is ignoring this as if either the world would come to end after 2014 or they are so sure of short memory of ap voters to forget everything by 2019.
Last edited by Dasari on 04 Jan 2014 23:56, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 04 Jan 2014 19:19

Dasari garu, 2014 seems be a truly a 1947 moment for India. Let us how the destiny will be written. Two consecutive surveys have put BJP above 200. I used to argue vehemently that BJP will never cross 180.

The alliance with TDP will be made public on Makar Shankranti per new outlets.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 05 Jan 2014 04:49

Muppalla wrote:Dasari garu, 2014 seems be a truly a 1947 moment for India. Let us how the destiny will be written. Two consecutive surveys have put BJP above 200. I used to argue vehemently that BJP will never cross 180.

The alliance with TDP will be made public on Makar Shankranti per new outlets.


Muppalla-ji,
Here is an article that puts the support for the TDP at 16-18% in (United) Andhra, and for the BJP at 8% or so. Is this an accurate survey in your opinion?

http://www.greatandhra.com/politics/gos ... 52740.html

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 05 Jan 2014 05:04

Greatandhra survey is always like politicsparty survey. All seats will go to Jagan :).

A lot of movement is happening. CBN is building a Kapu base like never before which will have Godavari, Visakha and northern districts. Basically TDP strategy is to push Jagan our of coast and relegate him to Rayalaseema. If a thaw on Telangana happens with Modi visits to SA region will bring a lot more change. Jagan's strategy is just on YSR legacy which is basically attracting vested interests(not negligible) and SC+Christian voters. One bottomline is clear in SA region and it is just between TDP and Jagan and there is no congress. We have to take surveys after Jan 31st regarding AP. I think there will be some clarity.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 05 Jan 2014 06:53

Muppalla wrote:Greatandhra survey is always like politicsparty survey. All seats will go to Jagan :).

A lot of movement is happening. CBN is building a Kapu base like never before which will have Godavari, Visakha and northern districts. Basically TDP strategy is to push Jagan our of coast and relegate him to Rayalaseema. If a thaw on Telangana happens with Modi visits to SA region will bring a lot more change. Jagan's strategy is just on YSR legacy which is basically attracting vested interests(not negligible) and SC+Christian voters. One bottomline is clear in SA region and it is just between TDP and Jagan and there is no congress. We have to take surveys after Jan 31st regarding AP. I think there will be some clarity.


As I mentioned in the same thread, YSRC sphere of power is limited to a few districts. Beyond that it is legacy power YSR got from being in Congress ruling as you rightly put it. Congress really back-stabbed Kapus by having taken PRP which is pro-United AP and then declaring split. This didn't go well with Kapus, esp people as leaders may compromise. On top of it Congress is playing with Polavaram project and Bhadrachalam as like proverbial putting chilli powder on wounds.

TDP or BJP should get them all if BJP played correct cards. TDP is rightly playing to get original TDP Kapu/Balijas voters into its fold. Kadapa district will be interesting to watch as it has Reddy MP (Jagan) and Balija/Kapu MP (Sai Pratap) as how the caste dynamics play out. 4-5 MP seats are guarantee for YSRC and 10-12 seats for TDP, rest 9 seats will see slugfest in Coastal and Rayala Seema regions. You'll have voting with violence in many seats, esp in South of Krishna river districts.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dasari » 05 Jan 2014 08:10

If BJP says that it is not supporting current division as the assembly is against it, and it can take the responsibility of convincing the assembly when it comes to power, can you imagine the reaction from congress? It will ruin them on both sides and the whole game it started totally boomerangs on them. Even on T side, it is TRs ( for the last time) that will be cashing the inability of congress to form the T state. BJP may not get much in T, but it is no different even if they vote for T. On the other hand, BJP will gain significant seats in SA. However, congress is betting that BJP will not do this. In other words, a party with no ehics or ideolgy, except promotion of dynasty, is betting on ethics and ideology of BJP to promote their chances in AP. BJP needs to wake up to this reality and give a feeler to assembly that if they reject the bill, rest assured the bill will be stoped in parliament.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 05 Jan 2014 08:20

Dasari wrote:If BJP says that it is not supporting current division as the assembly is against it, and it can take the responsibility of convincing the assembly when it comes to power, can you imagine the reaction from congress? It will ruin them on both sides and the whole game it started totally boomerangs on them. Even on T side, it is TRs ( for the last time) that will be cashing the inability of congress to form the T state. BJP may not get much in T, but it is no different even if they vote for T. On the other hand, BJP will gain significant seats in SA. However, congress is betting that BJP will not do this. In other words, a party with no ehics or ideolgy, except promotion of dynasty, is betting on ethics and ideology of BJP to promote their chances in AP. BJP needs to wake up to this reality and give a feeler to assembly that if they reject the bill, rest assured the bill will be stoped in parliament.


Dasari-ji,
Grapevine has it that this is precisely what was communicated to KKR by Parrikar when Parrikar went to meet the Andhra CM. That if KKR would ensure the defeat of the Telangana Bill, BJP would vote against it in Parliament. But, there is much belief in BJP that the Bill will never see the light of the day in Parliament, But, if it comes down to it, as long as the Assembly rejects it, they will bite the bullet and vote against the Bill.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 05 Jan 2014 08:24

ShyamSP-ji, Muppalla-ji,
Thanks for the comments. Couple of Qs to you ShyamSP-ji,
You said 5 seats are definite for Jagan. Would they be Cuddapah, Rajampet, Nellore, Chittor, and Tirupathi? What about the rest of Rayalseema? Which way would Nandyal, Kurnool, Hindupur and Ananthapur go?

Thanks for your answers.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 05 Jan 2014 09:07

BJP has already declared that they will not vote for Congress T-bill. Ball is in TDP court now.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby johneeG » 05 Jan 2014 09:27

johneeG wrote:
Narayana Rao wrote:BJP has 2 MLAs now and for long used to win Hyd LokSabha seat. But not now, Support in rural ares isnot much. May win Mehboob Nagar with Nagam Janardhana Reddy. Major gains in 2014 may not be possible than that. It will not win a single MLA or MP seat in rest of AP.


This is a Goddess sent opportunity for BJP to capture AP. Kongis were in a jam in the AP. So, they are playing tricks there to divert people's attention from Kongi performance in last 10 years. So, they are playing with T(and consequently AP). For the first time, they have presented pro-separate T stance at center level. So far, they have been doing a careful balancing act without tilting either side after the Dec 9. But I don't think they will form T because
a) they don't have the numbers in assembly or parliament(without BJP) to push it
b) it is detrimental to kongis in the long run(i.e. next elections in 2017-2018).
c) kongis don't take any decisions. They only keep stoking the fires.

But, kongis are pretending to go with separate T. Fine. Now is the time for BJP to take pro-united AP stance. Why? Because, there is too much competition in T region. TRS and Kongis are trying for the same share. And it is not possible for BJP to compete with them at this stage. Even TDP is in a jam because they have also announced the pro-separate T stance. So, everyone is trying for the same share of votes.

That means, there is no one to represent the voices of pro-united AP in AP. And Yrus party is making the most of it. Jagan is being given a clean path to go ahead. But, even he has not really done anything dramatic to win the pro-unity voices.

So, BJP can capitalize on it. If BJP takes a pro-unity stance, then it stands to gain regardless of other factors. First and foremost, kongis are a national party and they have taken a pro-separate stance. Now, only a national party can match a national party. So, if BJP goes with a pro-unity stance, then it would be ek teer do nishan.

I think kongis started this tamasha because they were afraid of Modi coming to Hyd and taking a strong T stance. So, they tried to pre-empt him. Now, BJP can push the kongis into a corner and checkmate them by taking pro-unity stance. By such a move, BJP can gain in Coastal AP and Rayalaseema(and even in T because I think there are lots of people who are not in favour of separate T in T). So far, BJP has not made any gains despite taking staunch separate T stance.

And if BJP gains in AP(in coastal and seema), then that would be a big big jolt to kongi-system.

BTW, breaking AP is not at all good for the country or for telugu people. Remember that AP was formed in direct consequence to Dravidian movement. Formation of AP, deflated Dravidian movement in India, so it was exported into Lanka. IF, Goddess forbid, AP is broken, then it will re-ignite Dravidian movement in India. All the factors are still in place.

Then, there is another point. Separateness of T is based on erstwhile kingdoms. So, that will lead to another thing, sooner than later. Like separate Jaisalmer...etc. And such seperate movements near border areas(like Gurkhaland) will have a very negative impact.

Also, any out of power politician can stir up such movements. KCR took inspiration from Shibu Soren. Now, IF this goes through many more will take inspiration. I won't be surprised if 600 new states are formed in next 50 years. Because there is no dearth of power-hungry selfish politicians in desh.

Finally, it is the jihadi rule of Nizams is being used to project T as separate from rest of the Telugus. And this has all the tendencies of pakiness. Infact, this is very similar to partition and a new state will act like a paki state only trying to foster separateness by focusing on nizams(just like pakis focus on mughals). BTW, I am a telanganite(born and bred && through and through).

It is a wrong idea to think that all telanganites support separate T. Infact, the great mischief is the term 'seema-andhra'. The right term is 'seema-coastal andhra'. All the three regions T, seema and coastal are Andhra only. Disassociating from the identiy of Andhra itself is ignorance or worse pakiness. KCR and his gang(or more precisely his family) are already trying to exaggerate the slight differences that may exist. KCR has even praised Nizam. No wonder because people like him were imported by Nizam from coastal region to undermine the native T guys. If a seperate state gets formed, it will be worse. It is very recently that the system of Dhoras is getting undermined. A T state can regress in terms of social justice and again the advent of Dhoras may also happen. And of course, there will be political instability due to the smallness of the state, that means the minority votes will increase in value. Further, small new state will be vulnerable to naxals(like Jharkhand and Chattisgarh). So, that opens the opportunities for naxals to implement their plans of Thirupathi to Pashupathi.

All in all, this is not good for country or telugus or Hindhus. But, there seems to be no party that can take a stance in this regard. Everyone seems to be trying only for pro-seperate votes only(not just in AP). It is quite similar to how everyone is trying for minority votes. That means there is no competition for majority votes. Similarly, there is not competition for pro-unity votes(particularly in AP). So, BJP can take advantage of this situations. Even RSS is supposedly against seperate T state, and righly so. Because it is based on the legitimacy of jihadi state of Nizam.

I believe the kongis are only faking it, so as to divert, obfuscate and fool people(of both pro-separate and pro-unity sides). KCR and Jagan are kongi puppets just like Chiru. And CBN has failed spectacularly showing that he is not fit to play politics and he has been trapped. Just when the CBN was again raising, kongis open it again. They have been doing this for last 5 years, yet CBN has not caught on. Kongis have given worst rule in AP, especially the load-shedding(even in Hyd for 3-4 hours) everyday for 3 years. Yet, CBN is unable to capitalize on it. He seems to be mega-failure just like Advani at center. Just as BJP has come up with a new face, maybe TDP can go with a new face and change in policies.

The advantage that Modi has is that he has not spoken on T so far. So, he can easily justify a pro-unity stance. Because the leadership in BJP has changed, a change in stance can be justified. And I think the reason Modi has not come to Hyd, so far is because he was waiting for kongis to clear their stand one way or the other. Now, that kongis have done it, Modi can take opposite stand. There is a huge number of votes waiting to be taken, if BJP can take pro-unity stance.

I think the Kongi strategy is that they will pretend to go with pro-separate T. But, they will not form it. They will stop short of it. Then, they will ask for votes on it. TRS and Kongis will either merge or form an alliance. That will leave the field open for Jagan. And he will form a post-poll alliance. Thats the kongi strategy.

This strategy is based on the assumption that BJP is going pro-separate. So, kongis are also pro-separate. They have already played their hand. If in this critical juncture, BJP makes a new move, that too in coastal and seema area, it will be a disaster for the kongis. It seems like AP is going to be waterloo of kongis. But, the question is can BJP capitalize on this? And will telugus and country suffer as kongis destroy themselves?

In last elections, TRS had an alliance with TDP. BJP had gone very strongly with pro-separate T. Yet, all the three parties failed spectacularly in T region itself(not talk of rest of AP). Yet, no one seems to have learned any lessons. On the contrary, kongis got more MP seats than MLA seats. There was a perception that Kongis will not form T. This perception was further stoked by YSR who declared that visas would required to go to Hyd if a separate T is formed. The irony is that it was YSR who had played with separate T and formed alliance with TRS to defeat TDP. TDP tried to emulate YSR and kongis. They failed.

What does that show? Why did Kongis win more MP seats than MLA seats? Because, there is a strong pro-unity block that voted kongis because they were trusted not to give separate T. Now, the same block will vote for any party(particularly a national party) if it takes a pro-unity stance. People are quite intelligent to differentiate between MP elections and MLA elections. So, BJP can definitely hope to win at least 10 MP seats in AP, if it takes pro-unity stance now. And such a stance will also provide BJP with workers and leaders(who are already trying for united AP).

As I said, all the parties are only trying for pro-seperate votes. So, the politicians are also in a jam(specially in coastal and seema regions). If BJP, a national party, takes pro-unity stance, such people can jump ship to BJP. And it will be a big blow to kongis.

This move, right now, I think will be a master stroke. IF BJP can pull it off. At least, it should try. Instead of going with the same old failed formula. I don't think BJP can really get any seats in T region, now that kongis themselves have put up this new stand. And this new stand by kongis was put up precisely to stop any potential votes/seats going to BJP. Kongis are playing with a fear of Modi in their minds. That is making them do extra-ordinary things. Can BJP capitalize on this?

All the BJP leaders in T region are really jaded lot. And have not done anything. So, even if they are against such a change in stance, their voices can be ignored because they don't have much following in the first place. Even the seats that BJP has won in T, it had to heavily depend on TRS for it. And TRS is a kongi puppet out and out. So, it is like depending on kongis. And that is not a good strategy.

I think Modi should immediately go to coastal and seema regions and talk of pro-unity. This is an opportunity that will not come twice. It is times like these when people are ready to switch loyalties and BJP can be a beneficiary.

And BJP has enough arsenal to target kongis on this case. Because the bill cannot be passed in assembly. Many people are against it and their opinions are not being taken into consideration. Even the Sri Krishna commission did not take a pro-separate stance. Kongis did not present the bill all this while and wait till the elections come. Kongis are trying to hide behind this issue to skirt the issue of development, governance and corruption. All the states that were formed till now were formed in a sub-region that did not have the capital. So, by all the above points BJP can target the kongis and take a pro-unity stance. It will immediately bring them close to many people in AP. Even those who never looked at BJP as an option will think about it because there are not many choices for pro-unity votebank.


It was MP seats from AP that gave an edge to Kongis and allowed the UPA to survive all this while. So, no wonder, kongis are playing all these tricks on AP to preserve their power. Without AP, kongis cannot come to power in their present situation. And kongis have a really good thing going in AP because they don't have to compete with BJP in AP. And CBN has failed to check the kongis. He has been successfuly entangled by the kongis using proxies like KCR, Chiru and Jagan apart from low level kongis. On the other hand, BJP cannot hope to get into power without capturing the southern states. And this is such an opportunity. BJP was trying to get into AP through pro-separate stance. Now, BJP gets a chance, a clear field without much competition to get pro-unity stance votes. At the minimum, that means many votes from coastal and seema regions. They may even get votes form T region for this stance. Also, a strong hindutva stance will earn them votes, particularly in T region and especially in old city of Hyd. Add development and Modi, you have a very good combo.

I hope BJP has the good sense to see this opportunity instead of trying to compete with so many in T region for the same voteshare.

Also, the onus is on pro-separate party to present the bill and get it passed. On the other hand, the pro-unity party can simply vote against it and it is status quo. So, the job of pro-unity party is easier than the other side. So, BJP does not have to give anything new. All it has to do is to promise to vote against it in parliament, if it is presented in parliament and speak against it in public forums. Even if BJP continues with pro-separate stance and promises to vote in favour of separate state in parliament if a bill is presented, it will not get any credit. The credit will go to kongis and TRS. And both of them will either merge or form an alliance. Even otherwise, KCR will dance to the tunes of Maino. TDP and BJP will look like losers even if they vote in favour of separate T if the bill is presented in first place. Of course, TDP will not be able to make its MLAs and MPs from coastal and seema regions to vote in favour of separate state. And same will be the case with Kongis. Because there is extra-ordinary public pressure on the MPs and MLAs from coastal and seema regions.

In short, BJP stands to gain nothing from separate T stance. It has already tried and failed. And the number of competitors has only increased from last elections. So, better to change the stance specially and justify it on the basis of change in leadership(Modi).

Goddess forbid, If a separate T goes through, then sooner than later there will be calls for separate Vidharbha and separate Saurashtra. And separate states in Rajasthan based on erstwhile Rajputhana kingdoms. And kongis will be expected to play very enthusiastic role in it specially in stoking separate Saurashtra(which is similar to T because it is an arid area). Saurashtra like T can also claim to be backward. Of course, it has been proven that T is no more backward than other regions of AP. So, separate T can hit BJP in some of its states and one can trust kongis to do it.

Now that BJP has lost n Karnataka, it needs to urgently gain in another southern state. I think AP is ripe for the situation. The ploy should be a combination of pro-unity stance, development and hindutva. Hindutva in T region to counter MIM. pro-unity stance for coastal and seema regions. And development and governance to take on the dismal rule of kongis and their allies. Such a combination will be very effective. By such a strategy BJP can rise in AP in next 10 years. On the other hand, if it sticks to its losing strategy, then it cannot blame people for not voting it in(whether assembly or parliament).

Link to the post

Frankly, I think BJP is wasting a golden opportunity. This is not just another routine situation. This is a moment when it can get a hold in a new area. I think it should go with a complete united stance. NaMo should make a huge deal out of it and go to to coastal regions and do some mega rallies there. I think TDP should go with separate T stance. And since BJP is going to oppose it, it is not going to get passed in parliament. Anyway, I don't think kongis are serious about this, it is just dramas to divert people's attention from their misrule of a decade. The above post was posted in Aug. If they had done at that time, it would have given them much better yields. Now, the yields may not be so great. Yet, there will be some result. But, if they let go of this opportunity, they themselves are to be blamed.

----
Muppalla wrote:There is very high confidence in those who are leaning towards Telangana about the formation of T-state in February. They think that the game is up for the SA-lobby. But on the same lines, the argument is that if we can ward off this bill in last and final parl session the game goes to next parl.

The strategists of main parties TDP, BJP, YSRC, TRS are on planning for both scenarios. This is the reason for non-declaration of alliance. However, seat level adjustments and who will contest from where is being discussed and strategized.

The rumor is that Lagdapati, Purandareswari, Rayapati are joining BJP and will contest from Eluru, Bapatla and Narsaraopeta. So much gossip in vernacular press.

I spoke to a relative who is a pure-T in HYD to wish new year greetings. He is small time real estate biz. I taunted him saying there will no bifurcation and TDP+BJP will get more parl seats, Jagan is not pulling much, TRS may not get much. He replied saying that sir-jee please talk good news and we all want TRS and YSRC winning and we are all betting revival of "our side" business. If TDP wins it will all be huge big fish only.

Bottomline is Hyderabad for movers and shakers of T-movement or rhona-dhona for SA is also Hyderabad. Rest is all just catalyst onlee.

One thing is there and no one even thinks that congress has any chance. The talk is even if bifurcation happens TRS will not go with INC and the strategy of INC in T not working at all. Per somayajulu in YSRC as said to my friend, congress can get some respect if they roll back everything and forget/forgive Jagan and go back to merger with Jagan. He says merger with Jagan gets more seats for INC than merger with TRS.


Muppalla saar,
in my extended family, people supporting separate T are connected with real estate. And also lawyers(particularly high court lawyers) seem to support separate T. State govt employees also seem to be supporting separate T. Apart from these people who seem to be expecting immediate benefits due to elimination of competition, others don't seem to support T. Infact, some oppose T(like me) on principle that Thelugu people should be united.

Yep, its all about Hyd and Govt employment. Earlier, in 70s, it was all about Govt jobs. Now, its mostly Hyd real estate.

There is another thing that has not come to fore so far: many Hyderabadis will support a great Hyd similar to dilli. Many Hyderabadi politicians will also support such a thing. The reason it has not come up so far(though they were some rumblings initially) is because of the loud voices from separate T side. But, notice that most of the separate T leaders are not from Hyd. Their bases are outside Hyd. Similarly, the coastal and seema politicos are also fighting for Hyd, but their bases are outside Hyd. At some point, people and politicians of Hyd will says Hyd is ours first and foremost. It does not belong to T or coastal or seema, but to us...

Muppalla
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 05 Jan 2014 09:57

devesh wrote:BJP has already declared that they will not vote for Congress T-bill. Ball is in TDP court now.


BJP's decision is not final and it does have two factions on the topic of Telangana. Per my info, Modi wants to just forget T-state and go with AP state as for him defeating congress is absolutely more important than anything. He is seeing a glimmer of hope by actually filling in the space of SA vacated by INC on the shoulders of TDP. He don't see that opportunity in Telangana. The Telangana BJP (like any Telanganite) wanted to first see Telangana that they truly think is more important and if it does not come this Feb it will not come. LKA, Sushma and even Rajnath are with T-BJP. Modi is in minority inside BJP. The discussion is not over but to keep their options open they restricted everyone to stop talking. In addition, they opened up by making some thawing statements in favor of SA. During this time the Modi's team, SA top honchos are increasing the noise of not losing the big picture focus. TRS sweep of T is something they don't hate as opposed to giving space to INC. However, it is 100% guaranteed that BJP will go with T if there is no division of state before elections.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 05 Jan 2014 10:33

nageshks wrote:ShyamSP-ji, Muppalla-ji,
Thanks for the comments. Couple of Qs to you ShyamSP-ji,
You said 5 seats are definite for Jagan. Would they be Cuddapah, Rajampet, Nellore, Chittor, and Tirupathi? What about the rest of Rayalseema? Which way would Nandyal, Kurnool, Hindupur and Ananthapur go?

Thanks for your answers.


YSRC can get these: Cuddapah, Nellore, Nandyal, Ongole, Ananthapur or Kurnool. TDP can win many in Bapatal onwards MP seats.
Some are literally battleground seats. We already have preview of bloody violence * in 2-3 places between TDP and YSRC recently.

*http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKLi4r2E4d8

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 07 Jan 2014 15:16

Sachin Reddy, a self-styled psephologist is saying

Coastal Andhra
YSRCP: (5) Vizianagaram, Sreekakulam, Araku, Nellore, Ongole
BJP+TDP: (12) Rest

Rayalseema
YSRCP: (5) Rajampeta Nandyala Kadapa Kurnool Anantapur
BJP+TDP: (3) Tirupati Chittoor Hindupur

Telangana
TRS: Nizamabad, Medak
BJP+TDP: Secunderabad, others
MIM: Hyderabad

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dasari » 07 Jan 2014 18:10

RajeshA wrote:Sachin Reddy, a self-styled psephologist is saying

Coastal Andhra
YSRCP: (5) Vizianagaram, Sreekakulam, Araku, Nellore, Ongole
BJP+TDP: (12) Rest

Rayalseema
YSRCP: (5) Rajampeta Nandyala Kadapa Kurnool Anantapur
BJP+TDP: (3) Tirupati Chittoor Hindupur

Telangana
TRS: Nizamabad, Medak
BJP+TDP: Secunderabad, others
MIM: Hyderabad


If the state formation stops, these numbers are accurate although TRS will win more than what is projected above. This is the precise reason, why Congress is desperate to finish the division in Feb parliament session. Without state division, they will be decimated on both sides. Even YSRCP has bleak prospects without state division. If the state division is stopped, even KKR may take few seats, bringing the above TDP numbers slightly down. I see why YSRCP wants to stall assembly discussion to pave the path for division, but don't understand why TDP is obstructing the bill discussion. Pethaps they are wary about the resurgence of KKR, and his future party cutting into their numbers. The tragedy is that even at this 11th hour, parties are jockeying for positions in the upcoming elections while the state, especialy SA, is facing bleak prospects.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 08 Jan 2014 02:38

PoliticsParty guy on Congress Hamlet mode "to divide or not to divide":

http://www.politicsparty.com/shownews.php?newsid=343

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 08 Jan 2014 02:59

RajeshA wrote:
Telangana
TRS: Nizamabad, Medak
BJP+TDP: Secunderabad, others
MIM: Hyderabad


This will be a miracle at this time. BJP+TDP getting 14 out of 17. Miracles do happen though. But based on survey data TRS will get at least 8 if not 10.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 08 Jan 2014 03:08

Muppalla wrote:
RajeshA wrote:
Telangana
TRS: Nizamabad, Medak
BJP+TDP: Secunderabad, others
MIM: Hyderabad


This will be a miracle at this time. BJP+TDP getting 14 out of 17. Miracles do happen though. But based on survey data TRS will get at least 8 if not 10.


Muppalla ji,

misunderstanding here. From the tweet, I could glean info only for these seats. I don't know how the rest of the 13 in Telangana are divided.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 08 Jan 2014 03:12

ramana wrote:PoliticsParty guy on Congress Hamlet mode "to divide or not to divide":

http://www.politicsparty.com/shownews.php?newsid=343


Sonia does not have any long term strategy if congress loses 2014. For her party the loss of 2014 means there will be no such party called congress in India.

RajeshA ji, That makes sense.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 08 Jan 2014 03:50

Muppalla wrote:
ramana wrote:PoliticsParty guy on Congress Hamlet mode "to divide or not to divide":

http://www.politicsparty.com/shownews.php?newsid=343


Sonia does not have any long term strategy if congress loses 2014. For her party the loss of 2014 means there will be no such party called congress in India.


There are too many signs that Sonia wants to call it quits and go back to Italy. I think her dilemma is the same one as that of USA pulling out its troops from Afghanistan: how to prevent a blowback and a total loss on investments, and how to safeguard the support ecosystem one is leaving behind.

I sometimes wonder why there were court summons from USA for Sonia Gandhi in 1984 Sikh pogrom case. One possibility is that USA is blackmailing Sonia Gandhi that she can retreat only after making sure that Western investments in Indian political system are not jeopardized, saying they want an alternative pliant government. May be that is the reason Sonia Gandhi is trying to give support to Aam Aadmi Party, as much as she can, so much so that she has cannibalized Delhi Congress and may be willing to throw Sheila Dixit under the wheels as well, should the need arise.

For Sonia Gandhi it is important that she gets an interim third front government for two years. During this time the dynasty can retreat from India, especially as they would not have any legislative or executive responsibilities, perhaps intentionally having lost their seats. One sees Kumar Vishwas of AAP going to candidate from Amethi. Possibly Rahul Gandhi would be transferring all of his vote-bank there to AAP, pumping up Kumar Vishwas apparently into a giant killer.

So one issue is of a safe passage to the Dynasty and their hanger-ons. The other is to install an American-controlled government at the Center.

An AAP-led Third Front fulfills both of these aims.

However Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi perhaps think that Modi too would give them a safe passage if they ask him politely, as long as they promise never to set foot in India again. So their heart does not seem to be really in the fight.

But USA would have none of this "throwing up of hands". They want to see the Dynasty to see this transition through and provide a good fight and to stall Modi. USA seems to be angry with the Dynasty and with Manmohan Singh and so we see repeated humiliations and disinterest from the USA. Similarly we see USA hardly enthused publicly about a NaMo PMship.

Let's also not forget that the Nuclear deal did not bring about any orders for American nuclear plants due to liability issues. Now the Americans may be getting a party in power who were not really a party to the deal, and may not stick to the unilateral moratorium either. That may be just one reason why the Americans don't want Modi. Anti-Conversion Law is another. But more important is that India may try to break out of the Macaulayist, socialist straitjacket in which the Anglo-Americans have kept India contained.

Also a Dynasty retreat back to Europe does not really mean they would stop meddling in India. They would want to keep their proxies as well, and their control would be far more in background than up front playing the general.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 08 Jan 2014 08:46

Dasari wrote: I see why YSRCP wants to stall assembly discussion to pave the path for division, but don't understand why TDP is obstructing the bill discussion. Pethaps they are wary about the resurgence of KKR, and his future party cutting into their numbers. The tragedy is that even at this 11th hour, parties are jockeying for positions in the upcoming elections while the state, especialy SA, is facing bleak prospects.


Tragedy is the bill came with objectives with blank and financial details with blank. Some cases they cut&pasted from Madras presidency split carrying even the name Tamil Nadu instead of Andhra Pradesh.

If they discuss, they agree to "blank" objectives and "blank" financial details. Central Congress can deviously fill those blanks with anything they want. If they didn't discuss, it is also problematic that Central Congress can say that bill referred to Assembly and they can proceed. Very diabolical bill.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby kmkraoind » 08 Jan 2014 09:05

Rajesh Garu, if they sense such thing i.e. Dynasty's Italy vanavas and AAping, how will Cong's satraps behave, will they raise revolt banner against Dynasty or will be blackmailed by Mafia to lay low or just shift allegiances to AAP. What percentages of revolt can wreck the plan of Con-AAP nexus?

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 08 Jan 2014 11:31

Ayyo moment of the day... soniamma as telengana talli....

Image

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Klaus » 08 Jan 2014 16:57

ramana wrote:I heard very disquieting reports about spread of foreign mafias in Hyderabad, in particular Russian ones! Nigerians in drug trade dominate. MIM is consolidating all muslims in all Andhra Pradesh and reaching out to Maha and Karnataka old Nizam areas.


So my initial projections for MIM in the Hyderabad-Karnataka region have been validated. They will indeed try to link up with the West Coast, in Konkan and Goa. MMR will be bypassed, atleast for now. The next 3-5 years is crucial for Indics to reclaim lost niches in MMR areas.

Looks like I was right on the count with regard to drug distribution networks too.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 08 Jan 2014 18:44

Klaus ji, Ramana garu, I really pray and wish MIM succeed in consolidating ALL muslims towards MIM. Every action will have 100% equal and opposite reaction.


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