Expressing his willingness to enter into a pact with the CPI and the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, which he called “our party,” Mr. Rao said the objective of the TRS was to form a government in Telangana.http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/c ... 789276.ece
I spoke to few folks. Irrespective of the initial euphoria, couple of things are happening. (1) The T-sentiment will not stay for long (2) the caste lines will be there in elections. Initially the euphoria was people will just vote to the victor.
Forward castes led by Velamas are solidly with TRS. Reddys are with congress. The T-state is now a 13% Muslim state. The OBCs are neither with TRS nor with congress. This block though euphoric of T state formation, they are really a politically floating population. Every passing week reduces the T-state victory euphoria. T-state has a total of 30% SC+ST population. Most of them are with INC.
The problem for both INC and TRS are they just cannot go together because they cannot accommodate all their important leaders with seats. TRS has more troubles because they can just jump to anyone as it still not strong at grassroots like a seasoned political party.
With a pure Reddy leadership or Velama leadership, there is no way one can unite a host of OBCs under one banner. Hence both TRS and INC are trying to compete for Muslims + SC votes. The muslims are substantial in about 25 to 30 of the 119 constituencies. To add to congress woes, there are a percent of Reddy voters who still vote to a losing Jagan in Telangana (this is not a surprise).
Add to this complexity, the voters in Khammam district (10 seats), few constituencies in Nalgonda, Mahaboobnagar, Twin cities are with substantial SA folks who will not vote to either congress or TRS. In other districts too there are so called settlers who are not going to vote for TRS or congress.
BJP and TRS alignment at a pre-poll looks like a nice thing for those who don't understand the caste and religious demographics however, it is suicidal for TRS to go with BJP because it will lose the Muslim vote without any gain. If MIM aligns openly with INC as pre-poll in the next week or so then as an SOS TRS could try BJP route. In that case if BJP relents, there will be no BJP+TDP on either side.
This is where the OBC CM and 100 seats to OBCs from TDP looks a catalyst in fight for TG. TDP will get a tonne of settlers and SA voters of TG. If he declares a CM candidate pre-poll with real show of OBC candidates there is a remote chance of comeback. On top of it the OBC PM Modi with a BJP alliance boosts this block post T-sentiment euphoria. Here CBN does not lose anything as he is restarting at zero with a lot of cadre and ground knowledge. BJP sulks because it has forward caste leaders who are more ingrained to Telangana and does not want an SA party to grow again.
This is kind of the picture that is the reason for no alliance yet for BJP in AP. Every party that gets more than 5000 kills TRS chances. Hence don't rule out the destruction due to Jagan, communists etc.