Dasari wrote:Historically there is a tendency here to overestimate BJP and its allies seats ( i distinctly remember how we were all wrong in 2009). The reason I urge you all caution is based on what I see at ground level, which is quite different from above predictions. In fact based on the opinions of working class (the one that really vote), communal votes, TV ads , and the intensity of the campaigning on the streets, i think the YSRCP is going to do lot better than what is projected. Granted my extrapolation based on observations is not scientific and largely confined to Vizag and Vizianagram districts, but i suspect the above projections for TDP/BJP are grossly overestimated.
Vizag is high profile and I can see huge spending by YSRC. Opinion polls don't capture as most surveys are based on low samples and I'm yet to see standardized and unbiased surveys to take any of them with seriousness.
Coming to the estimations, I'm providing some clarifications. YSRC party votes are Congress votes but main question is how many Congress votes will transfer to it as is from 2009? Mine is data analysis with my own bias, which I tried to minimize and stick to what numbers say. My error in 2009 numbers was to minimize PRP effect thinking it affected both INC and TDP. Although I knew PRP sold to INC last minute from Parakala Prabhakar I didn't adjust.
A few examples of Seemandhra criteria I used for raw 2009 numbers from EC. The posted results are based on numbers. Only issue I have with these numbers is this time because of lack of time I didn't do MLA constituencies which made my 2009 results much more superior than this time. I'm still looking to adjust based on YSRC and INC understanding. It is in INC interest to move its votebank in entirety to YSRC.
- Kept TDP %s minus caste criteria
- Applied caste criteria for INC %s
- Shifted INC and TDP votes to YSRC.
- Applied some political considerations and back-testing of the 2009