AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 29 Jul 2013 10:28

How are they going to divide AP w/o a resolution being passed in the state assembly for the same?

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 29 Jul 2013 11:46

Supratik wrote:How are they going to divide AP w/o a resolution being passed in the state assembly for the same?

The constitution doesnt require that AP assembly pass it. All it requires is that assembly vote on it one way or another.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 29 Jul 2013 12:12

I don't the INC will create political suicide diving AP. BJP demand is all about hari kiri for INC based on the politics it started in 2002. I think INC will keep this on boil till 2014 with people on both sides hating each other without talking about governance.

Quite frankly for INC giving Telegnana is like breaking a piggy bank. It would be gross fullishness if they go through with this.

Ithink they threaten and pull short of this.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Jul 2013 15:03

Here are the real election results. No need to go after spins of surveys. I will update after the final results. Urban areas are pretty much fed up the government and the expectation is that TDP will do better in urban centers. It did pretty impressively and on the rise.

Here are the results of the villages from AP based on results at the end of second phase elections. Remember there are about 7000 more villages to go. Another important factor is that this is purely rural electorate. About 30% of the total electorate is Urban in AP.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Jul 2013 15:07

ShyamSP wrote:Mulayam asks correctly what is reason to divide Telangana?

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Mulayam kudos to Kiran: Says division is dangerous
http://www.andhraheadlines.com/BrowseAr ... tId=117750
Bangaluru, July 28: Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav clearly expressed himself against division of the states. He said the country wound be in as much danger as it would be made into as many pieces.

Mulayam touring Karnataka spoke to the media here.

Referring to the creation of Chattisgarh, Uttarakhand and Jharkhand, he questioned about the fate of these states. He said good governance was possible because UP was united. “Divide the state if you can and see what would happen to the country” he said. Mulayam also congratulated the AP Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy for stoutly opposing the Congress High Command.

Any bill to get Telangana will be easily passed in Parl. Mayawati, Sharad pawar, Ajit Singh and Left are all on board. BJP is always a supported. We need to watch and see if they support the variants such as HYD as UT, Anatapur and Kurnool as part of T etc.

There is no need from state to pass the resolution.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Jul 2013 15:21

Congress’s leaky Telangana policy

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 29 Jul 2013 15:59

Muppalla wrote:Here are the real election results. No need to go after spins of surveys. I will update after the final results.

Which election results are those? What is the source of that chart?

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 29 Jul 2013 16:35

On the T-State.
1. Understand that the T-State would have areas which were part of the Hyderabad Nizam clubbed into this one. So what happens to Karnataka districts/places like Bellary, Yadgir etc.? They go back to T-State?
2. How much of a vote share will the modern day's Nizams and Razakars - Owaisi brothers & MIM have in this state? Would it be a case where they have some good vote share and policies would be based on the ideas of these fanatics? Don't really wish to see another Kashmiri coming up in the south.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 29 Jul 2013 16:42

^
1. There is no way T-state will get other nizam state regions. T-state is telugu speaking nizam state.
2. MIM has 7 MLAs and 1 2 MP currently. I do not think they will ever win more than that. On top of it, with their anti-T stance, they may not get support in one or two MLA seats. But nowadays they are trying to expand base by taking Hindu leaders into MLA positions.

http://www.apsmfc.com/ministry-population-cenus.html

But besides hyderabad district (40% of population) another 4 or 5 districts in Telangana have 10%+ Muslims. This will be a key constituency for INC.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Jul 2013 18:50

muppalla garu, is it possible to group that result by telangana vs. ap?

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 29 Jul 2013 19:06

As per IndiaTV poll Cong(7)+TRS(11)+YSR(14)=32

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 29 Jul 2013 19:08

ashashi wrote:
Muppalla wrote:Here are the real election results. No need to go after spins of surveys. I will update after the final results.
Which election results are those? What is the source of that chart?

These are Panchayati election results for village head (Sarpanch) seats. One gotcha is elections are not held on party symbols so number of seats are only loosely associated with parties . In many cases each candidate identifies with a party so that table may be close to voting pattern with some exception like ruling party has advantage in terms of money power and distribution of goodies.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Jul 2013 19:53

SaiK See the chart - they are grouped by Telangana, Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra. The source is Andhra Jyothy. it was in Telugu and all I did was translation and some additions where they did not provide. The last phase of village elections (7000 more villages to go) will be on 31st July. I will put a final chart. There is no better chart than this. Going by survey is useless for the rural AP. But the urban areas of AP is more than 30% of the total electorate and it will have a different story.

TDP TRS and INC have three way equal split in Telangana. In non-Telangana TDP did very good and congress is also in the race. Jagan is good in about couple of districts but a good competetor in rest.

When just about TDP is reviving, INC again created a 2009 December.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Jul 2013 19:55

Sushupti wrote:As per IndiaTV poll Cong(7)+TRS(11)+YSR(14)=32

This is a state in complete flux. The actual results I posted are good indciator as compared to these numerous surveys.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Jul 2013 20:02

oops muppalla, i missed.
7373/18216 -> 40% total part of telangana..

but for telangane (1004/4086) 20% vote bank talk where the other 25% is tdp and kangrez each. still, if kangrez sides with trs, that means near 55% support for separation on the states.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 29 Jul 2013 20:18

^
These numbers are in flux until Congress gives clarity as some realignments come into play.

Assuming T is given, Congress+TRS will sweep Telangana. It is YSRC vs TDP in Non-Telangana. Congress can give concessions to Jagan so YSRC can support it later at Center. If it splits Hyderabad between two states, it is Congress+TRS vs BJP+TDP in Telangana. It is still YSRC+INC vs TDP.

If no T, it is TRS vs INC vs TDP in T. It is INC vs TDP vs YSRC in non-T.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 29 Jul 2013 20:27

Issue of T will be perfect distraction if Congress wants to throw BJP off-balance and pass any bills in the next parliament session.

They can release T-monkeys and non-T-monkeys in Parliament and get all the bills the way they want passed as BJP-monkeys (Sushma for example) will be busy with distracting monkeys.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Jul 2013 20:33

Tomorrow is a big day again regarding T. They are now two conflicting reports. Hyd being permanent UT Vs UT until a capital is found.

ShyamSP garu, you being a supporter of United AP, but you and your family will probably part of new Telangana. Late Paritala Ravi is also now a puccka Telanganite. All pointers are that there will be a Rayala T which INC is hell bent on. I wish some brains prevail.

I want to know what is the religious and caste composition of Anatapur and Kurnool and why is central INC hell bent on this even without any request from any one in AP.

yvijay · Post by **yvijay** » 29 Jul 2013 20:48

^Rumors are that Telangana politicians are strongly resisting adding two Rayalseema districts to Telagana.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Jul 2013 20:50

There was a HT report that KCR is miffed at the INC stealing his thunder and might not align with them. But then there is CBI to make him an ally.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Jul 2013 21:16

yvijay wrote:^Rumors are that Telangana politicians are strongly resisting adding two Rayalseema districts to Telagana.

Makes sense. In the end INC will yield probably. Have anyone heard "kukkalu chinchina vistara" and that is what INC is doing to AP.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 29 Jul 2013 21:42

Muppalla wrote:Tomorrow is a big day again regarding T. They are now two conflicting reports. Hyd being permanent UT Vs UT until a capital is found.

ShyamSP garu, you being a supporter of United AP, but you and your family will probably part of new Telangana. Late Paritala Ravi is also now a puccka Telanganite. All pointers are that there will be a Rayala T which INC is hell bent on. I wish some brains prevail.

I want to know what is the religious and caste composition of Anatapur and Kurnool and why is central INC hell bent on this even without any request from any one in AP.

I have 3 legs in 3 regions in terms of immediate relatives and properties. May be I have to take "Visa" to visit each state.

Regardless of what happens, Hyderabad freezes to be dynamic city. Property values in Hyderabad periphery will fall dramatically so there will be some material loss. Many people now have to suck money out of Hyderabad to invest elsewhere.

As for INC wanting Rayala Telangana is nothing but politics and control. Remember JC Diwarkar Reddy. One day he was for United AP, next day he was for Rayala Telangana. That got hacked into Shri Krishna Commission report.

--------
Somireddy makes some of comments I made earlier. RT means inserting another state to control water release (Krishna, Tundabadra, Penna)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ep88-uuSbzc
Rayala Telangana not acceptable - TDP's Somireddy - Tv9

Or RT is all but negotiating tactic. You start at 10 (UT). I start at 1 (split). You come to 7 (T-Hyd) , I come to 3 (RT), we settle at 5 (T).

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Jul 2013 21:46

-Google headlines mostly from TOI and ET

- Centre rushes 1000 paramilitary troops to Andhra Pradesh prior to decision in addition to 1200 already deployed. To be deployed in Rayalseema and Coastal Andhra
- Congressmen with business interests retarding T decision:Kodandaram, JAC.
-More clamour of other states:Gorkhaland, Bodoland, Vidarbha etc.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 29 Jul 2013 22:10

I sense there is not much angst among AP folks about all this from the posts. More like a political redistricting. Hardly a mention of where BJP stands in all this. Are they for the split ?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Jul 2013 22:14

bjp will spell troubles even if they side one way or the other.. it best left to the people of AP to decide.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 29 Jul 2013 22:15

Bade wrote:I sense there is not much angst among AP folks about all this from the posts. More like a political redistricting. Hardly a mention of where BJP stands in all this. Are they for the split ?

Telugus cry or rejoice for their state is being split. It doesn't matter who is for/against T-state for everyone changed their stance more than once including BJP.

The pain is due to the manner the state is being split.
- No due process. SKC didn't give any specific recommendation because it was not its mandate.
- No involvement of people. No referendum or not even elections (if elections are the criteria then TRS lost much of its sheen). It is all just manufactured agitations on both sides
- No clarity of thought. Which districts to form T-state and what about others etc., At this point everything is up for grabs. How silly it is to add 2 districts to Telangana and why not the remaining 13 seemandhra districts? Why not add all AP districts into Telangana?
- Most importantly, there is no leadership in sight that even talks about people. Every party/leadership is doing it for their political fortunes.

No one cares, thinks and feels about Telugu people.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Jul 2013 22:17

I guess you don't get the irony at all.

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AP Herald claims KCR told Kodandaram of JAC, Nov elections will be held before mOdi develops momnetum.
Once TRS gets power they want to cede the two districts as their movement was for Telangan only and not this T+ state.

Owaisi reportedly told INC that he wants united AP as he is afraid that Velamas and Reddis who were the suppressed people under the Nizam will take revenge in the new state! But he is glad to stick it to Kiran Kumar Reddy whom he has big differences with.

Meanwhile even WSJ reports Rajnath Singh of BJP dares INC to create Telangana ASAP!
----

Now we know what the East Bengal and Punjab Hindus felt on Partition.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Jul 2013 22:18

I have a thought.. why not rename AP as Telangana?!?!

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Jul 2013 22:23

Bade sir, please read a 100 page locked thread called as Telangana on start forum. AP ites are very very emotionally divided for and against. For not APites, all the 8 crore folks are big fools.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Jul 2013 22:26

SaiK wrote:I have a thought.. why not rename AP as Telangana?!?!

"Neee faceu naaku nachaledu " and we drink Tea as opposed to coffee plus we only eat biryani Vs white rice is the reason for Telangana seperation. How can you give my precious Telangana name to the ugly Talibs across the durand line?

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 29 Jul 2013 22:30

Irrespective of which way people vote to their favorites, the commoner Telegus can be on the street in peaceful protest against a split. It makes no sense to me to do this, for a few votes now, which can change in the following decades.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Jul 2013 22:37

muppalla garu, i could understand except the word nachaledu. naaki telugu konchum onlee vastundi

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Jul 2013 22:38

"nee facu naaku nachaledu" == I don't like your face

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Jul 2013 22:44

gotcha.. see that is where the politics can be broken to pieces.. take the name away, and they will go baseless.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 29 Jul 2013 22:48

Then it will be called West Telengana and East Telengana !

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Jul 2013 22:52

by all means.. keep calling and arguing about it, while the state remains intact.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 29 Jul 2013 22:56

This seems along the lines of splittist

tendencies I see in comments between folks from Kochi and Tvm (old Travancore) in Kerala. All artificial barriers onlee in the head. Unfortunate to say the least, even when sharing a common language.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Jul 2013 23:05

is divided states by languages written in the constitution?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 29 Jul 2013 23:06

SaiK wrote:muppalla garu, i could understand except the word nachaledu. naaki telugu konchum onlee vastundi

You dont even know our language

.. we want a separate state

PsyQ mahasaya... that proposal was made a long time ago by yours truly... but our friends on the forum didnt accept.. for they didnt like my andhra face

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Jul 2013 23:08

yama r, is it not (y)our language a dharmic one?