AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Vayutuvan
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 21 Apr 2014 09:52

Johneeg garu: tomorrow for a detailed serious post, too tired right now.

ramana garu: you absolutely nailed what was in my mind. Thanks.

Rajesh ji: I don't follow. Looks like johneeg garu, ramay garu and you are on the same wavelength. I am not getting it. It has to be tomorrow.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 22 Apr 2014 01:46

No updates on AP?

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 22 Apr 2014 03:09

X-post...
Rony wrote:Channel war: The fuss over English news

Hindi and Telugu are the dominant languages of television news in India. News is one of the most-watched genres of programming on TV, on a par with kids television and much higher than sports. And not a single English news channel made it to the top-10 news channels in India, in the last three years.

Those among other things is what the television audience measurement data for 2013, sourced from news broadcasters and analysed by Business Standard shows. (Click for tables)

As we race towards the end of, arguably, one of the most scrutinised-by-media elections, these numbers are a telling commentary on the state of the media in India. The over one per cent share that Telugu news channels get nationally looks good. However, Andhra Pradesh, where most Telugu channels originate from, is one of the most chaotic and fragmented news market. At last count there over 20 channels undercutting each other. It is an accurate reflection also of the pathetic state of news broadcasting in India. At 135, India has a world-beating number of news channels in a Rs 1,800 crore stagnant market. Only four news broadcasters of the dozens operating in India, make money. Many of the others are funded by politicians, real-estate barons or people who are in it to use the channel as a lever for their main businesses.

The good part of the report is the slivers that languages other than Hindi and English show, especially Assamese, Gujarati, and Oriya. It indicates that diversity is creeping in, albeit at a very basic level.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 22 Apr 2014 03:21

Official TDP poster trying to outdo YSRC .

Security to Christian properties
Will try to include Dalit Christians to SC status
Christian Community Hall in every district
Subsidy in transportation costs for Bethlehem pilgrimage

Image

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 22 Apr 2014 03:33

Friends tell me 3-4 in ten refuse to take Prasadam nowadays saying they took belief.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mort Walker » 22 Apr 2014 07:09

^^^That is just the beginning. In SoKo it has gotten so bad that youngsters are refusing to bow to their elders and teachers. It will lead to disintegration of society.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby yvijay » 22 Apr 2014 07:18

Ramaaa ! CBN turned out to be bigger crook than I thought him to be. I thought he was just a corrupt one, but never knew he's also a 'Sickular' person. AP is really is in bigger shit, if alternative to Jagan is another closet EJ. :cry: :evil:

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 22 Apr 2014 07:21

Yvijay garu...

If CBN is the fox that everyone says he is, he knows which side of his bread is buttered.
I am not worried, yet!

P.S: the danger is always there.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby yvijay » 22 Apr 2014 08:22

RamaY garu,
I wish, I share your optimism, but let's see.
P.S: Please don't use garu. You are older than me.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gpati » 22 Apr 2014 09:51

RamaY garu,

If Modi comes to power at center and CBN at state, would coastal Andhra be more conductive for new startup ventures?

The current startup trends in US are

1. Get early funding as well as customers through crowdfunding and demonstrate market traction. Then, approach venture capitalists for funding.
2. Build community and get one customer. Enchant the customer with the product or service so that he/her refers friends using word of mouth or social media. Enchant the friends and the process repeates. Bootstrap using the revenues from sales and scaleup.
3. Combination of 1 and 2.

Would above models work in India and would relying on Telugu NRIs for crowfunding is a good strategy?

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dasari » 22 Apr 2014 11:42

yvijay wrote:Ramaaa ! CBN turned out to be bigger crook than I thought him to be. I thought he was just a corrupt one, but never knew he's also a 'Sickular' person. AP is really is in bigger shit, if alternative to Jagan is another closet EJ. :cry: :evil:


The truth is much more complicated. This is very similar to what Pravin Togadia is accusing Modi of.

The situation in AP is:

One person is a staunch evangelistic Christian, but camouflages Christianity, and selectively visits temples to makeover on hindus.
Net result: 15-20% guaranteed communal votes en-mass and 2 wins in a row.

The second person is a staunch Hindu with strong family connections to Tirumala/Tirupati, but no makeover on Christianity to get any communal votes,
Net result - 0% communal votes , two losses in a row.

The truth is that Muslims and Christians vote en-mass based on religion and don't give damn on economic policies. On the other hand Hindus don't give a damn on religion, but vote based on loyalties that are formed anything other than religion.

In this situation what should the second person do? Hope one day the 'sickular' Hindu opens his/her eyes, sees the game and votes accordingly, or Does he do the reverse on the first person to beat him at his own game? Not an easy answer.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 22 Apr 2014 12:05

Dasari wrote:In this situation what should the second person do? Hope one day the 'sickular' Hindu opens his/her eyes, sees the game and votes accordingly, or Does he do the reverse on the first person to beat him at his own game? Not an easy answer.


Polarize!

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SanjayC » 22 Apr 2014 12:07

CBN promises Y'day Rally:Build Church in every Village (with Tax payers money ). SC status to Dalit-Xians.Special budget for Christians.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 22 Apr 2014 12:17

I think Dasari said it nicely. so called vote banks like muslims and rural christians tend to vote based on religious perceived benefits only. and hindus tend to vote on anything but religion.

so correct Gajar has to be shown to get every rabbit moving in approx same direction.

its preferable as much as possible of religious votes go to CBN than Jagan such that Jagan support in the end does not become mandatory to get NDA across the 272 line. with Jagan in the NDA how does one propose to get the camel outside the tent and CRE on EJ's as some are proposing ?

in a highly complex and korrupted env, it might take a while to restore some dharmic feelings of unity among the hindus and the state unit of BJP has to take the lead there I guess.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 22 Apr 2014 15:14

SanjayC wrote:
CBN promises Y'day Rally:Build Church in every Village (with Tax payers money ). SC status to Dalit-Xians.Special budget for Christians.


I really hope neither Jagan nor CBN gets a majority.

BJP needs to become the third force after CBN and Jagan in Seemandhra, and become the king-makers. Get all MLAs not in YSRCP or TDP under the BJP banner.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vishvak » 22 Apr 2014 15:23

SanjayC wrote:
CBN promises Y'day Rally:Build Church in every Village (with Tax payers money ). SC status to Dalit-Xians.Special budget for Christians.

Now, weren't Europeans here to educate Indians about civilized European life. Not to forget separation of state and religion and such and such ideas within Europe for others to emulate only!

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 22 Apr 2014 16:29

^Its now clear why Ap had to be bifurcated. the kosta-seema portion is well-nigh lost to Indic forces, seems like. Any and I mean *any* govt in SA will need the xtian votebank to survive. :(

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SRoy » 22 Apr 2014 16:37

Hari Seldon wrote:^Its now clear why Ap had to be bifurcated. the kosta-seema portion is well-nigh lost to Indic forces, seems like. Any and I mean *any* govt in SA will need the xtian votebank to survive. :(

This is what many of us posted and tried explain when our biraders from AP were shooting left and right in rage after the bifurcation bill was passed. :D
BJP need to get out of partnership drama with TDP and contest alone. Concentrate on Telangana on time being and plan a long term consolidation in Seemandhra.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 22 Apr 2014 17:01

^^Modi seems to have gotten the message...

Uma Sudhir ‏@umasudhir 1h
Is @ncbn a burden for BJP in #Telangana? @narendramodi made raving references to actor Pawan Kalyan but did not refer to Naidu even once !!

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 22 Apr 2014 17:21

This happens everywhere and AP is not a exception.But AP probably has more money bags and black money than any other state and combined with the fact that for many players this election is a do or die battle, money is flowing like anything this time.

Andhra Pradesh, the state where money talks in politics

But over the weekend, a wife of a minister in Kiran Reddy's government that's just gone out of office, was found with Rs 45 lakh in long-distance night bus. Though she denied it, the lady was carrying the money to hubby dearest's constituency for election expenses.

Money has always played a huge role in elections, but this time all limits have been broken with money being ferried even in ambulances and television OB vans to avoid detection by sleuths. The latter are stopping even vans carrying bank money to check them.

Money, It's a Gas

Other innovative means like cash transfers to party agents through banks — using services of friendly companies — are also being taken recourse to. So alarming is the situation that the chief election commissioner rushed to Hyderabad last Saturday to review the situation. He told media that Andhra Pradesh was the most 'expenditure sensitive' state accounting for 46% or Rs 105 crore of all the cash seized since the model code of conduct kicked in. He did not say so, but the seizures are only the tip of the iceberg.

Political pundits estimate that winnable Lok Sabha candidates will spend anything betweenRs 40 to Rs 60 crore and assembly candidates will cough up amounts in the region of Rs 10 to Rs 15 crore.

Considering that there will be two or more winnable candidates in each constituency, the total amount of cash spent can well be imagined.

Thus political parties have thought it prudent to set up moneyed candidates — usually businessmen with no previous experience of politics — putting aside the claims of career politicians.

A good example is the Malkajgiri Lok Sabha seat in Greater Hyderabad, where the TDP has put up a candidate whose only claim to fame is that he owns a chain of highly profitable colleges.


This is much to the chagrin of partymen who wanted the seat and who protested outside Naidu's house. According to stories doing the round, many winnable candidates have 'bought' their candidature from party bosses but will have to spend more money in paying off area party organisers, MLA candidates, local honchos and voters.

In one particular instance, a Lok Sabha candidate is believed to have paid his party boss a staggering Rs 30 crore to secure a ticket. In another instance a businessman threw a tantrum because the BJP did not name him but instead put up an RSS man from a Lok Sabha seat.

His tantrums were not before BJP bosses but in front of TDP's Chandrababu Naidu. Apparently this businessman had first joined Jagan, but fought with him and then ran to Naidu. The TDP boss advised him to join the BJP and promised to 'take care' of him.

Armed with this promise, the businessman started cultivating the who's who of his chosen seat, only to be disappointed. Naidu was so taken in by his protestations that last week this was one of the reasons for which he was ready to break his alliance with the BJP! And in some cases parties have even withdrawn candidates after naming them because they could not cough up cash.

Clearly the elections on the eve of Andhra Pradesh's bifurcation have less to do with politics and more with money.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 22 Apr 2014 17:27

SRoy wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:^Its now clear why Ap had to be bifurcated. the kosta-seema portion is well-nigh lost to Indic forces, seems like. Any and I mean *any* govt in SA will need the xtian votebank to survive. :(

This is what many of us posted and tried explain when our biraders from AP were shooting left and right in rage after the bifurcation bill was passed. :D
BJP need to get out of partnership drama with TDP and contest alone. Concentrate on Telangana on time being and plan a long term consolidation in Seemandhra.


Saar-before hyperventilating on CBN's overtures to the Christians, please to consider the shameless wooing of Muslims in Telangana by KCR and Congress. SA is in no worse case, may in fact be better off, to elect a pure Indic government than Telangana.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SRoy » 22 Apr 2014 17:37

^^
^^
Already said that BJP need to get rid of TDP at both the places. How does KCR and Cong come into the picture?

This is totally OT, but let me say it again. Nationally the template to be followed is strong BJP in all state, or if already a Indic party in place then BJP+SAD and BJP+SS type arrangements.

TDP could have been AP's SS.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 22 Apr 2014 19:02

Any feedback on Modi's Telangana meetings?

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 22 Apr 2014 19:30

Live speech on narendramodi.in

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby AjayKK » 22 Apr 2014 19:36

RamaY wrote:Live speech on narendramodi.in


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXrnVJ829EM

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 22 Apr 2014 20:23

Code: Select all

Seemandhra/Residual AP/Rayalaseema+Kosta Predictions
Version 1 date: 04/15/2014
=========================================================================
Party   | No. of Seats |  MP constituencies
=========================================================================
INC     |       1      |  Araku
=========================================================================
BJP     |       2      |  Narasapuram, Tirupati
=========================================================================
YCP     |       6      |  Kadapa, Rajampeta, Nandyala, Nellore,
        |              |  Amalapuram, Visakapatnam
=========================================================================
TDP     |       16     |  Chittoor, Hindupur, Ananthapur, Kurnool, 
        |              |  Ongole, Bapatla, Guntur, Vijayawada, 
        |              |  Machilipatnam, Eluru, Rajamundry, Kakinada, 
        |              |  Anakapalli, Vijayanagaram, Srikakulam
=========================================================================

Telangana Predictions
Version 1 date: 04/21/2014
=========================================================================
Party   | No. of Seats |  MP constituencies
=========================================================================
INC     |       6      |  Nalgonda, Bhongir, Mahbubabad, Malkajgiri,
        |              |  Nizamabad, Zahirabad
=========================================================================
BJP     |       2      |  Secundarabad, Mahabubnagar
=========================================================================
MIM     |       1      |  Hyderabad
=========================================================================
TRS     |       5      |  Medak, Peddapalli, Karimnagar,
        |              |  Warangal, Adilabad
=========================================================================
TDP     |       3      |  Khammmam, Nagar Kurnool, Chevella,
        |              | 
=========================================================================

Note: A few seats are too close to call but were put under a party.
Last edited by ShyamSP on 22 Apr 2014 20:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 22 Apr 2014 20:24

India needs Modi as the Prime Minister of India says Chandrababu Naidu. He is dropping Modi's name in every second line. LB stadium in Bhagyanagar is packed with TDP cadres (as per one account there are more TDP cadres than BJP cadres in the meeting). All these media reports about differences between Modi and CBN is just hogwash.


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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 22 Apr 2014 21:21

Rony garu, I wrote long time ago, irrespective of who needs whom (TDP, BJP), the media and some forces definitely wanted to see this alliance does not happen. Several things happened. Today infornt of millions they have seen it happened and the bonhomie between Modi and CBN. Whatever may be the end result, this is a needed thing to defeat certain destructive forces. BJP's contribution to the split does not matter at all and that is evident from TDP's strategy for a long time.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 22 Apr 2014 21:26

ShyamSP garu, Amalapuram is a close call. Rajampeta is tough fight and Vizag is YCP because Mrs.YSR. Malkajgiri will not be INC even if TDP loses.

Bhongir, Nizamabad and Zahirabad are very tough for INC. They could go to TRS

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vipins » 22 Apr 2014 22:12

Is there any alliance between BJP n Lok Satta? Jaiprakash Narayan is fighting from Malkajgiri where TDP has also fielded a candidate.I am first time voting from AP, had my name in UP's voters list in 2009.Cant imagine in 2009 that next lok sabha election I might have to press Cycle button. :(( :((

Modi will lose onlee.. :(( :(( :(( :((

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 22 Apr 2014 22:24

Muppalla wrote:ShyamSP garu, Amalapuram is a close call. Rajampeta is tough fight and Vizag is YCP because Mrs.YSR. Malkajgiri will not be INC even if TDP loses.

Bhongir, Nizamabad and Zahirabad are very tough for INC. They could go to TRS


This is data-driven based on 2004 and 2009 EC data and my allocation of voting % shifts. Malkajgiri and Adilabad are closely lost from TDP. If Loksatta backs down, Malkajgiri will go to TDP. I plan to do another iteration of data analysis, which is more complicated this time than in 2009, before elections.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 22 Apr 2014 22:29

Loksatta does not have any alliance.Ideally Jayaprakash Narayan should be the joint candidate for TDP-BJP-LS . JP should be in Loksabha. TDP candidate Malla Reddy is a corrupt moneybag ayaram-gayaram type fellow. But his money power and his reported promise to CBN to finance TDP in other seats as well is the reason why he got that seat.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 22 Apr 2014 22:31

I suggested that JP should be considered for Rajya Sabha and help make sure NDA wins.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 22 Apr 2014 23:44

Published on Apr 22, 2014
JP meets Modi: The Hindu

Lok Satta Party (LSP) national president Jayaprakash Narayan on Tuesday met BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi at the Begumpet airport here and exchanged views.

They supported each other’s agenda for people.

“We are united by our development agenda and commitment to economic growth. This is our common refrain that transcends party lines,” Dr. Narayan said after the meeting.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 23 Apr 2014 02:49

AjayKK wrote:
RamaY wrote:Live speech on narendramodi.in


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXrnVJ829EM


By Telugu standards, NaMo speeches in AP are not effective and he looks tired. CBN sounded much better. Also why BJP is having Pawan Kalyan accompany NaMo rallies., esp in Telangana (Hyderabad may be ok) and increasing PK profile unnecessarily. BJP seemandhra counterparts are not entertaining him anyway.

BJP can win Sec'bad and Mahbubnagar by candidates' (Dattatreya and Nagam) merit.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 23 Apr 2014 05:33

It would be better if we do not go too deep into tdp party candidate selection. Cbn has no inclination to develop party cadre or structure. Only being a money bag is the criteria. Any popular leader will be reduced in size.

Just wait and see he will not join nda govt. Outside support. He don't want any other party member to become powerful.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 23 Apr 2014 05:55

WTF did i just watch ? :eek:


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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 23 Apr 2014 06:03

Narayana Rao wrote:It would be better if we do not go too deep into tdp party candidate selection. Cbn has no inclination to develop party cadre or structure. Only being a money bag is the criteria. Any popular leader will be reduced in size.

Just wait and see he will not join nda govt. Outside support. He don't want any other party member to become powerful.


Malla Reddy, TDP Malkajgiri candidate, himself is well qualified for the post. He is self-made man by building commercial educational institutes. He is decent man, has money, and wants to work for the party. What else political party needs?

Coming to JP of Loksatta. He was asked to get seat under BJP quota which BJP didn't give. TDP then asked for merger which he didn't agree. Beggers can't be choosers. Why would CBN give seat to him when JP is not agreeing to TDP even ignoring constant criticism/crying of JP on CBN.

TDP needs to somewhat match with YSRCP in money/black money/bartering during elections. That is current reality.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 23 Apr 2014 06:10

Rony wrote:WTF did i just watch ? :eek:


Apparently that central chair was for Modi and he (Modi) was supposed to have Nagam & Kishan Reddy was on his sides.

Modi pulled Naidu to sit in the central chair and he sat next to him. Kishan Reddy sat next to CBN.

Nagam requested BJP leadership to make CBN come to Palamuru as he needed TDP ground support and CBN's presence will make it sure.

Good to see Modi respecting CBN for it is a matter of respect in Telugu land.

I know lot of people dont like CBN for various reasons, but he survived 9yrs of YSR/YSRCP cabal, which is no small feat.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 23 Apr 2014 06:18

Too much melodrama about JP. Why he needs a party? Could have merged into either TDP or BJP and work on the goals.


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