AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

member_28533
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_28533 » 12 May 2014 04:01

BRF Gurus,

Surprising to see 5forty3 guy predict a narrow NDA victory, even though this is not a general perception from what I gathered..

Spoke with my cousin in Seemandhra who canvassed for BJP and currently has contact at ground level. He confided that TDP leaders are not confident from earlier on, as new data is arriving in and that is the reason why they are scaling down from initial brags of 130+ to about 90-100 at present. Among different segments of population, the mood is anti-Kamma, as they are being blamed for bifurcation and also the fear that they would clannishly dominate the state building, if they were voted to power.

The only reason why several middle class voters voted for Jagan is due to a perceived notion that he was anti-Kamma, even if he were an EJ or corruption-czar didnt register with voters as much as his ability to withstand Kammas.

Another interesting snippet, which he vowed to be true - apparently, some YSRCP agents were instructing the mass labor voters who were swayed by cash and liquor to cross vote for BJP in lok sabha for reasons best known to them. Apparently, the voters messed up between Lok sabha and assembly poll ballots and cast the first segment of votes for Jagan and next for BJP.. the result - YSRCP for LS and BJP in assembly. This implies that cross voting data, even if based on booth-level exit poll data, may be incorrect due to voter confusion.
Last edited by member_28533 on 12 May 2014 04:03, edited 1 time in total.

RamaY
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 12 May 2014 04:01

Rumor started because his family built/managed a school funded by missionaries. nJR also worked in that school.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Virupaksha » 12 May 2014 04:29

religious politics and personal religions are not always one and the same.

Infact one can find the persons who play the worst religious politics to be cynical athiests in their personal beliefs.

One example is the vijayawada politics. Vangaveeti ranga and devineni nehru played cynical caste politics and created huge caste wars between kamma-kapu there. How many of know that both were friends and had mentored tens of inter caste marriages at the start of their careers? During emergency, they even shared the same prison cell. But tens of people were murdered because of their so called caste rivalry.
Last edited by Virupaksha on 12 May 2014 04:37, edited 1 time in total.

Muppalla
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 12 May 2014 04:37

NJR is Christian irrespective of what he says out. Brahmananda Reddy was too. Later he said that he back into Hinduism. Kotla is not. KKR is a doubtful character.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby hanumadu » 12 May 2014 05:13

Muppalla wrote:NJR is Christian irrespective of what he says out. Brahmananda Reddy was too. Later he said that he back into Hinduism. Kotla is not. KKR is a doubtful character.


And you know this because? Do you seriously believe what you say? I think there is some thing called showing proof when you claim something. Just shows how much of hot air you are on every thing you say and how hard it is to take you seriously.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby suryag » 12 May 2014 05:20

one thing that i know about NJR is during the time he was CM and i was a small kid, we were visiting Keesaragutta and we were stopped because the CM was coming to the temple. he was visiting with his wife so it is possible he was acting a good hubby or he believed in Lord Shiva or he was a crypto, may be he changed afterwards

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 12 May 2014 05:57

hanumanudu boss, I know from my dad side relations who are very deeper into congress party of that era. No one is alive these days. I think I don't need to do an expose dance here as that will not be a good idea in open world.

One thing is that these are not like YSR type converts as their families are not converts and hence there is ambiguity. There is big diff between KBR and NJR. KBR confessed that he converted to Xtian but also said that he re-converted back. NJR always hid openly and he is actually irreligious one.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby hanumadu » 12 May 2014 06:10

Muppalla wrote:hanumanudu boss, I know from my dad side relations who are very deeper into congress party of that era. No one is alive these days. I think I don't need to do an expose dance here as that will not be a good idea in open world.

One thing is that these are not like YSR type converts as their families are not converts and hence there is ambiguity. There is big diff between KBR and NJR. KBR confessed that he converted to Xtian but also said that he re-converted back. NJR always hid openly and he is actually irreligious one.


Means nothing. You do not have an iota of proof. Its still hot hair and rumour mongering.
Last edited by hanumadu on 12 May 2014 06:17, edited 1 time in total.

suryag
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby suryag » 12 May 2014 06:13

Cheers gurus, the man is dead so it doesnt matter much

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 12 May 2014 06:14

hanumadu wrote:Means nothing. You do not have an iota of proof. Its still hot hair and rumour mongering.


whatever. I don't care and willing to lose credibility in your world.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_28555 » 12 May 2014 06:40

RamaY wrote:It should be easy to find out by checking how NJR's last rites were done.


njr was cremated, video below


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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 12 May 2014 06:40

NJR is called as John Paul Reddy. His girls married Gora Christian. KKR family is now join the faithful. Kasu family was already. They are secretive about this and regularly get huge money payments from Churches abroad while pretending as Hindus with their Reddy sir name.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby KLP Dubey » 12 May 2014 06:44

ragha.batluri wrote:njr was cremated, video below


So were Maimuna Begum and Roberto Gandhi. Don't mean nuthin'. Just a charade to dupe the Indian public.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby hanumadu » 12 May 2014 06:51

Narayana Rao wrote:NJR is called as John Paul Reddy. His girls married Gora Christian. KKR family is now join the faithful. Kasu family was already. They are secretive about this and regularly get huge money payments from Churches abroad while pretending as Hindus with their Reddy sir name.


:rotfl: I guess that's where he must have got the money to build the temple in his village for SCs of course denied entry by Brahmins, which is much more than most of us can say. If anything he should be credited for saving a few souls from being harvested.

Added later:
http://www.newscounty.com/former-andhra-pradesh-cm-n-janardhana-reddy-passes-away/

He is lived by wife and four sons.


http://indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/former-andhra-pradesh-cm-n-janardhana-reddy-dead/
Reddy is survived by his 4 sons and wife Rajyalaxmi.


Congratulations Narayana Rao Garu for impeccable research about NJR. While the news papers mention only 4 sons, you have unearthed a daughter too, perhaps illegitimate.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vamsee » 12 May 2014 07:00

Is there any site which shows the municipal election results today from AP?

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 12 May 2014 07:08

ABN Tv or ETV might show the results. By 12 noon all results should be out. Results before the results. :)

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vamsee » 12 May 2014 07:09

Yes and those elections were before Modi+PK+Babu blitz. So I expect better performance in Assembly compared to Municipal elections.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 12 May 2014 07:15

Vamsee wrote:Yes and those elections were before Modi+PK+Babu blitz. So I expect better performance in Assembly compared to Municipal elections.


One thing is there. In TG you may see TDP and INC winning these and TRS coming less but in Assembly there will be very less TDP. These will tell who has good grass root level cadre.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_28533 » 12 May 2014 07:20

Hanumadu garu,

I admire your forthright observations.. please comment whether my cousin's observations are correct about YSRCP's resurgence and rumours of cross voting being encouraged by some YSRCP leaders.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dasari » 12 May 2014 07:28

Muppalla wrote:Regarding why Vijayamma will lose Vizag,

Vizag MP : 60k Andhra university votes.. 1lakh North Indian votes... 1.2 lakh Velama vote's... All these are solid NDA votes .. KHB will win for sure


Muppala garu, For the last few days I keep accumulating my sample, though it is not a scientific study in terms of its randomness, i'm predicting that Vijayamma will win by narrow margin. All working labor whether an auto driver or CMR sales woman or maid worker they all voted for YSRCP. They are vey happy, as they got Rs 500 per vote from both parties.

On the other hand, when 25% of registered voters didn't vote, they fall into the above first two categories you mentioned. So that doesn't help. Even here there is no absolute support for NDA.

The velama vote is split between NDA and YSRCP, though NDA got majority of their votes. Had Sabbam Hari withdrawn and supported NDA sooner, it would have made huge difference. Right now I give only 70%-30% split in favor of NDA.
Last edited by Dasari on 12 May 2014 07:44, edited 1 time in total.

hanumadu
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby hanumadu » 12 May 2014 07:29

mchilian wrote:Hanumadu garu,

I admire your forthright observations.. please comment whether my cousin's observations are correct about YSRCP's resurgence and rumours of cross voting being encouraged by some YSRCP leaders.


I am far away from ground zero and I have absolutely no idea what your cousin is talking about. Sorry.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gpati » 12 May 2014 07:38

Vamsee wrote:So I expect better performance in Assembly compared to Municipal elections.


Not necessarily true, those who voted for TDP in muncipal elections voted for YSRCP in Assembly elections and vice versa.

Godavari and Krishna disctricts will go to TDP based on ground level reports and my relatives who were on election duty. Uneducated men were asking for help to locate cycle on EVM. Even, christian youth voted for TDP. On the flip side, uneducated women may have voted for YSRCP. My relatives who are loyal congress voters have not voted.
Last edited by gpati on 12 May 2014 07:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_28555 » 12 May 2014 07:39

KLP Dubey wrote:
ragha.batluri wrote:njr was cremated, video below


So were Maimuna Begum and Roberto Gandhi. Don't mean nuthin'. Just a charade to dupe the Indian public.


i concur and was merely documenting to Ramay garus response.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 12 May 2014 07:48

Dasari wrote:Muppala garu, For the last few days I keep accumulating my sample, though it is not a scientific study in terms of its randomness, i'm predicting that Vijayamma will win by narrow margin. All working labor whether an auto driver or CMR sales woman or maid worker they all voted for YSRCP. They are vey happy, as they got Rs 500 per vote from both parties.

On the other hand, when 25% of registered voters didn't vote, they fall into the above first two categories you mentioned. So that doesn't help. Even here there is no absolute support for NDA.

The velama vote is split between NDA and YSRCP, though NDA got majority of their votes. Had Sabbam Hari withdrawn and supported NDA sooner, it would have made huge difference. Right now I give only 70%-30% split in favor of NDA.


You are right. It is very close race with an edge to YSRC and it is sad to lose after a good fight.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby bhavani » 12 May 2014 08:31

Muncipal election results are coming out. TDP is leading.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 12 May 2014 08:33

bhavani wrote:Muncipal election results are coming out. TDP is leading.


In SA it is in good leads. Godavaris are in sweep. In TG, INC is leading and TRS and TDP in close second and third. Greater HYD, TDP is leading. But these are early trends.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dasari » 12 May 2014 08:38

One caution in extrapolating municipal elections. These elections were held in an atmosphere of frenzy where many sitting MLAs of ruling party left INC and joined various other parties. A month later the dust was settled and battle lines were clearly drawn. Whoever wins these municipal elections regret that the results were not released before the assembly elections

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 12 May 2014 08:42

Dasari wrote:One caution in extrapolating municipal elections. These elections were held in an atmosphere of frenzy where many sitting MLAs of ruling party left INC and joined various other parties. A month later the dust was settled and battle lines were clearly drawn. Whoever wins these municipal elections regret that the results were not released before the assembly elections


Dasari garu, Vizag district is looking like a sweep by TDP. The parl seat has to be very close I guess.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 12 May 2014 08:46

Muppalla wrote:
bhavani wrote:Muncipal election results are coming out. TDP is leading.


In SA it is in good leads. Godavaris are in sweep. In TG, INC is leading and TRS and TDP in close second and third. Greater HYD, TDP is leading. But these are early trends.



As of now from TVs:

AP: TDP, INC, YCP, TRS are leading in that order. win+leading I think but results are in expected lines.
Let's see how final numbers turn out.

Seemandhra: TDP (60%) : YCP (40%)

Telangana: INC (37%) : TRS (25%) : TDP (16%)

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dasari » 12 May 2014 10:17

As the municipal election results are coming out, the biggest surprise is the extent of destruction for congress in SA. They literally got wiped out. Even in my wildest imagination, never expected Congress to be destroyed like this. So far out of 1200+ ward results of different municipalities across the 13 districts, they won mere 28 seats. This got to be a record for any party going from some 500+ seats to 28 in one term. Hope same thing repeats in assembly and parliament elections.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 12 May 2014 11:36

Ratnakar Sadasyula ‏@ScorpiusMaximus 2h

@alok_bhatt TDP+BJP will do overwhelmingly well in urban seats, especially in Coastal area.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_28352 » 12 May 2014 11:40

Dunno about KBR but NJR was definitely Christian, even if he and his family were crypto christians. KVBR, JCDR and MVMR were/are Hindus as far as I know. KKR is prima facie Hindu though dunno much about his family.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 12 May 2014 11:53

India Today ‏@IndiaToday 28m

Results so far for municipal polls held on March 30
Telangana: Cong-22, TDP-4, TRS-11, BJP-2, BSP-1, MIM-1.
Seemandhra: TDP-49, YSRC-16.

S. Sudhir Kumar ‏@ssudhirkumar 42m

Congress has won a massive 52 out of the 2570 wards in AP elections. @priyankac19

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 12 May 2014 12:41

dna ‏@dna 31m

Congress ahead in Telangana, Telugu Desam Party in Seemandhra municipal polls http://dnai.in/ccMX
S. Sudhir Kumar ‏@ssudhirkumar 48m

It was neck and neck between TDP and YSRCP in the morning. Now, good majority for TDP in Seemandhra.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby a_bharat » 12 May 2014 12:46

Municipalities: T+AP : Cong-17, TDP-61, YSRCP-21, TRS-3
Wards AP: Cong-55, TDP-1438, YSRCP-845, Left-17, Others-119
Source: eenadu.net

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 12 May 2014 12:50

So we can expect the same pattern for Assembly more or less. Right???

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 12 May 2014 13:19

gandikota vasu ‏@gandikotavasu 33m

TDP wins most muncipalities in Andhra; ysr cong says this is an urban trend nd results of assembly polls will be different. 4 more days.
gandikota vasu ‏@gandikotavasu 28m

zero for congress in Andhra; has not done impressively even in telangana in the urban bodies polls; may 16 result unlikely to be different.

ANI ‏@ANI_news 36m

Prakash Javadekar,BJP : Results of Municipal elections in Seemandhra where TDP has won decisively is indication of things to follow on 16th

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby a_bharat » 12 May 2014 13:36

pankajs wrote:So we can expect the same pattern for Assembly more or less. Right???

We will know tomorrow if the trend is same in rural areas. If there are no urban-rural differences, TDP should do even better in VS & LS elections because there should be the additional impact of Pawan Kalyan & Modi.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby a_bharat » 12 May 2014 14:58

Image

Two interesting bits:
- In T, TDP+BJP is ahead of TRS
- In Kadapa district, TDP won 4 of 7 municipalities

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 12 May 2014 15:19

In these polls there was alliance between TDP and BJP in T. For tomorrow result (Zilla Praja Parishads) and MPP(Mandal Praja Parishads) there was some understanding). The formal alliance happened way later than these elections.

Municipal elections are significant pointers - Though YSRCP pushes as Urban crap. The Urban AP =104 Assembly seats and 72 wins for TDP in these 104 :)

Few pointers:
(1) It was congress who did not want these elections. Supreme Court forced these.
(2) Proxies for YSRC went to court to postpone these results. Actually they are slated to be released before LS nominations. Had the results declared then, there would have a huge boost for BJP+TDP alliance.

TDP+BJP fought Assembly/LS elections with its back on the wall with huge disadvantages on several fronts. Media, Administration, timing of bifurcation are all done to see TDP+BJP does not succeed.


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