BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50641
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby ramana » 07 Apr 2014 23:44

How many seats will NDA win?
Assign probabilities to each of 6 outcomes in your reply. They must add to 1. If you don't we assume you have assigned 1 to your answer. The method works better if you assign probabilities.

Eg. Saral writes My Answer based on current biases: [0%,5%,15%, 20%,30%,15%,15%,]

1) Less than 200
2) Between 200-220,
3) Between 221-240,
4) Between 241-260,
5) Between 261-280,
6) between 281-300
7) or greater than 300

We can allow the members to post their take of the probabilities after each round of the poll schedule.
Eg 4/7, 4/9, 4/10, 4/12, 4/17, 4/24, 4/30, 5/7, and 5/12

Eg Archan posted his choice right now. On 4/9 he can give post his take and so on and so forth.

Please participate and help trial this process.

archan
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6821
Joined: 03 Aug 2007 21:30
Contact:

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby archan » 07 Apr 2014 23:46

I am fuss! 261-280

EDIT: adding probabilities..

1) Less than 200 10%
2) Between 200-220, 25%
3) Between 221-240, 40%
4) Between 241-260, 20%
5) Between 261-280, 0%
6) between 281-300, 5%
7) or greater than 300, 0%

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50641
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby ramana » 07 Apr 2014 23:48

So whats your probability for that number? This works differently than a poll. One has to say what are the chances for the other choices?
If you dont give any numbers it will be 1.0 for your answer and zero for the others.

Saral
BRFite
Posts: 1653
Joined: 16 Jan 2005 14:05

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby Saral » 07 Apr 2014 23:49

archan wrote:I am fuss! 261.280


Please also provide your probability distribution. Else you are betting the farm on one option.

ramana: the 7th option should be > 300.

jamwal
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5004
Joined: 19 Feb 2008 21:28
Location: Somewhere Else
Contact:

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby jamwal » 07 Apr 2014 23:51

1) Less than 200 - 0
2) Between 200-220, - 5
3) Between 221-240, - 10
4) Between 241-260, - 38
5) Between 261-280, - 35
6) between 281-300 - 10

7) Above 300 - 2

Added later: Shouldn't it be outside GDF for more visibility ?
Last edited by jamwal on 07 Apr 2014 23:55, edited 1 time in total.

Patni
BRFite
Posts: 803
Joined: 10 Jun 2008 10:32
Location: Researching sub-humans to our west!

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby Patni » 07 Apr 2014 23:53

1) Less than 200
2) Between 200-220,
3) Between 221-240,
4) Between 241-260,
5) Between 261-280,
6) between 281-300 or greater
7) More then 300
[0%,3%,15%,45%,25%,10%,2%]
Last edited by Patni on 08 Apr 2014 00:04, edited 1 time in total.

fanne
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2753
Joined: 11 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby fanne » 07 Apr 2014 23:54

1) Less than 200 - 25
2) Between 200-220, - 35
3) Between 221-240, - 35
4) Between 241-260, - 5
5) Between 261-280, - 0
6) between 281-300 - 0
7) Above 300 - 0

Saral
BRFite
Posts: 1653
Joined: 16 Jan 2005 14:05

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby Saral » 07 Apr 2014 23:55

Patni, the last option is > 300 please add one more number and ensure all adds to 100.

Virupaksha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 3110
Joined: 28 Jun 2007 06:36

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby Virupaksha » 07 Apr 2014 23:57

[60%,40%,0%,0%,0%,0%,0%]

KJo
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9449
Joined: 05 Oct 2010 02:54

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby KJo » 07 Apr 2014 23:59

225 :((
I hope I am wrong and Modiji gets 300+

Virupaksha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 3110
Joined: 28 Jun 2007 06:36

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby Virupaksha » 08 Apr 2014 00:00

this poll is biased from the outset in that it doesnt give bjp detractors room. Whatever the result, it will have a pro-bjp tilt.

A GJP poll only works if such a tilt doesnt exist.

choices should start right from 0 all the way to 540.
Last edited by Virupaksha on 08 Apr 2014 00:02, edited 1 time in total.

Saral
BRFite
Posts: 1653
Joined: 16 Jan 2005 14:05

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby Saral » 08 Apr 2014 00:02

Saral's estimates on 04-07-2014:

Code: Select all

1)   Less than 200 : 0
2) Between 200-220 : 5
3) Between 221-240 : 15
4) Between 241-260 : 20
5) Between 261-280 : 30
6) between 281-300 : 15
7)       Above 300 : 15


We can modify estimates once a week. So please don't edit old estimates (make a new post in this thread). You can paste my format and use that (just change my numbers)

Or just use the simpler format [0%,5%,15%, 20%,30%,15%,15%]
Last edited by Saral on 08 Apr 2014 00:04, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50641
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby ramana » 08 Apr 2014 00:02

Thanks for the input but lets stick to the experiment.

KJo you need to give probabilities just as others have done.

muraliravi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2819
Joined: 07 May 2009 16:49

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby muraliravi » 08 Apr 2014 00:03

200-220 is the my take with 185 for BJP and 35 for alliance partners

Saral
BRFite
Posts: 1653
Joined: 16 Jan 2005 14:05

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby Saral » 08 Apr 2014 00:05

muraliravi: Please give prob estimates for all 7 ranges. Give zero for others if you are absolutely sure of your range.

SRoy
BRFite
Posts: 1832
Joined: 15 Jul 2005 06:45
Location: Kolkata
Contact:

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby SRoy » 08 Apr 2014 00:11

1) Less than 200 : 15
2) Between 200-220 : 5
3) Between 221-240 : 15
4) Between 241-260 : 15
5) Between 261-280 : 50
6) between 281-300 : 0
7) Above 300 : 0

RamaY
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17260
Joined: 10 Aug 2006 21:11
Location: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby RamaY » 08 Apr 2014 00:22

I voted 6 (281-300) and I give the probability of 6/10

1) Less than 200 : 0
2) Between 200-220 : 0
3) Between 221-240 : 10
4) Between 241-260 : 10
5) Between 261-280 : 20
6) between 281-300 : 40
7) Above 300 : 20


[0%,0%,10%,10%,20%,40%,20%]
Last edited by RamaY on 08 Apr 2014 00:26, edited 3 times in total.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50641
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby ramana » 08 Apr 2014 00:23

You need to give the probabilities for the rest unless you want to say 0 for them.

Saral
BRFite
Posts: 1653
Joined: 16 Jan 2005 14:05

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby Saral » 08 Apr 2014 00:24

Virupaksha wrote:this poll is biased from the outset in that it doesnt give bjp detractors room. Whatever the result, it will have a pro-bjp tilt. A GJP poll only works if such a tilt doesnt exist. choices should start right from 0 all the way to 540.

100% to NDA < 200 would be clearly anti-NDA sentiment. We have narrowed plausible ranges based on pollsters. Its up to you to refine it further as per your bias. Yes, our forum is slanted but the question is if this slant affects our estimates. Maybe it does; we will find out surely at the end.

Saral
BRFite
Posts: 1653
Joined: 16 Jan 2005 14:05

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby Saral » 08 Apr 2014 00:25

RamaY: Do you realize that your 2 statements are logically inconsistent? You said 60% and then you gave a 40% estimate for that range. In fact, your beliefs got moderated as you considered multiple possible ranges. Which is interesting.
Last edited by Saral on 08 Apr 2014 00:27, edited 1 time in total.

RamaY
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17260
Joined: 10 Aug 2006 21:11
Location: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby RamaY » 08 Apr 2014 00:27

Saral wrote:RamaY: Do you realize that your 2 statements are logically inconsistent? You said 60% and then you gave a 40% estimate for that range.


Shouldn't it calculate up to that point? I gave 40 to that range and 20 to next range.

Saral
BRFite
Posts: 1653
Joined: 16 Jan 2005 14:05

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby Saral » 08 Apr 2014 00:28

RamaY: Just nitpicking.. You are correct.

vivek.rao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3775
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby vivek.rao » 08 Apr 2014 00:29

Being an eternaml optimist, my guesses are

BJP: 248

NDA: 312

Gus
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8097
Joined: 07 May 2005 02:30

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby Gus » 08 Apr 2014 01:01

250 for bjp and 300 for NDA.

Saral
BRFite
Posts: 1653
Joined: 16 Jan 2005 14:05

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby Saral » 08 Apr 2014 01:05

Vivek and Gus: Could you indicate the probabilities for each of the 7 ranges? A single estimate means that you are saying 100% for one range and 0% for the rest. Question pertains to NDA numbers not BJP alone. Thanks.

Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3870
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby Manish_Sharma » 08 Apr 2014 01:20

275 for BJP and 320 for NDA

NaMo Narayan

Image

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50641
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many Seats will NDA win?

Postby ramana » 08 Apr 2014 01:28

Folks its not helpful if you dont work a little bit hard. Please post the probablities for the questions in the given format.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6968
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Mort Walker » 08 Apr 2014 01:47

I think it is too early for this poll and after 10 April 2014 we'll have a better understanding.

5% 1) Less than 200
10% 2) Between 200-220,
15% 3) Between 221-240,
20% 4) Between 241-260,
30% 5) Between 261-280,
10% 6) between 281-300
10% 7) or greater than 300

Now that said, I am predicting at least 10% better for BJP than 1999 which is ~200 seats, but much depends on turnout.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50641
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby ramana » 08 Apr 2014 01:53

You all will get more chances till 5/12.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50641
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby ramana » 08 Apr 2014 01:54

Saral, Can you run the numbers for those members who posted as of today?

Thanks, ramana

KJo
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9449
Joined: 05 Oct 2010 02:54

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby KJo » 08 Apr 2014 02:12

ramana wrote:Thanks for the input but lets stick to the experiment.

KJo you need to give probabilities just as others have done.


okay saar, here they are.

1) Less than 200 - 0%
2) Between 200-220, - 5%
3) Between 221-240, - 5%
4) Between 241-260, - 5%
5) Between 261-280, - 20%
6) between 281-300 - 60%
7) or greater 300 - 5%

Note, I am assigning percentages for NDA, not just BJP as I had earlier.

Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9860
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Postby Vayutuvan » 08 Apr 2014 02:15

1) Less than 200
2) Between 200-220,
3) Between 221-240,
4) Between 241-260,
5) Between 261-280,
6) between 281-300 or greater
7) More then 300
[5%,20%,40%,20%,10%,5%,0%]

kish
BRFite
Posts: 959
Joined: 07 Jun 2010 23:53

Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby kish » 08 Apr 2014 02:59

My prediction

5% 1) Less than 200
20% 2) Between 200-220
40% 3) Between 221-240
20% 4) Between 241-260
10% 5) Between 261-280
5% 6) between 281-300
0% 7) or greater 300

In the results section above this thread, I was expecting a normal Bell curve to represent the seat share in this poll, but surprised to see a unrealistic 300+ got more vote. In the pic below i have shaded the states in yellow where BJP/NDA has very little presence. So literally NDA is contesting from 390 seats, expecting it get more than 300 seats is unreasonable.

Image

Saral
BRFite
Posts: 1653
Joined: 16 Jan 2005 14:05

Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Saral » 08 Apr 2014 03:02

Ramana, This is week 1. Can we wait for a few days before posting aggregates etc? Don't want to spoil the party for people who vote for the next few days. Maybe we can have a schedule of posting summaries on Friday? and telling people to make a new estimate from Monday onwards? Also I see some folks are shying away from giving 7 numbers. Surely it can't be that hard?

krisna
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5767
Joined: 22 Dec 2008 06:36

Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby krisna » 08 Apr 2014 03:21

1) Less than 200 - 5%
2) Between 200-220, - 10%
3) Between 221-240, - 35%
4) Between 241-260, - 35%
5) Between 261-280, - 5%
6) between 281-300 - 5%
7) or greater 300 - 5%

My guess at present is around 220-260 >50%

will come touchingly close to magic 272. :(
NaMo will get the first shot at forming govt by Pranab da.
He will form govt. My only hope is that ladies - amma benehji or didi shoudl not have a say in securing govt majority. Ok with Naveen Patnaik.

The reason I give 5% for ech category above 260 is difficult becasue of major swings will occur to cause a jump at that range. same with lower ranges NDA/Modi wave is a reality.

If more people vote say >70-75% in each constituency then I predict a perfect Tsunamo with over 272 by NDA.

niran
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5388
Joined: 11 Apr 2007 16:01

Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby niran » 08 Apr 2014 06:22

>300, yeall know me, me is cowbelti know nothing probability wability
i go by house flies wishpers

SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 36031
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby SaiK » 08 Apr 2014 06:57

if bjp gets 272 all by themselves, booze on me!

Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7845
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Pratyush » 08 Apr 2014 06:57

What are the basis of assigning probability for any of the outcomes stated above. If I understood that I may be able to participate in this poll.

SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 36031
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby SaiK » 08 Apr 2014 06:58

one basis i could think is your interaction with speaking to your family and friends.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50641
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby ramana » 08 Apr 2014 08:23

Pratyush wrote:What are the basis of assigning probability for any of the outcomes stated above. If I understood that I may be able to participate in this poll.


it can be WAG or a SWAG. Let the mind speak and you can get to correct over the elections.


Return to “BR Nostalgia Archive”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests