## BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

ramana
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### BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

How many seats will NDA win?
Assign probabilities to each of 6 outcomes in your reply. They must add to 1. If you don't we assume you have assigned 1 to your answer. The method works better if you assign probabilities.

Eg. Saral writes My Answer based on current biases: [0%,5%,15%, 20%,30%,15%,15%,]

1) Less than 200
2) Between 200-220,
3) Between 221-240,
4) Between 241-260,
5) Between 261-280,
6) between 281-300
7) or greater than 300

We can allow the members to post their take of the probabilities after each round of the poll schedule.
Eg 4/7, 4/9, 4/10, 4/12, 4/17, 4/24, 4/30, 5/7, and 5/12

Eg Archan posted his choice right now. On 4/9 he can give post his take and so on and so forth.

Please participate and help trial this process.

archan
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

I am fuss! 261-280

1) Less than 200 10%
2) Between 200-220, 25%
3) Between 221-240, 40%
4) Between 241-260, 20%
5) Between 261-280, 0%
6) between 281-300, 5%
7) or greater than 300, 0%

ramana
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

So whats your probability for that number? This works differently than a poll. One has to say what are the chances for the other choices?
If you dont give any numbers it will be 1.0 for your answer and zero for the others.

Saral
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

archan wrote:I am fuss! 261.280

Please also provide your probability distribution. Else you are betting the farm on one option.

ramana: the 7th option should be > 300.

jamwal
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

1) Less than 200 - 0
2) Between 200-220, - 5
3) Between 221-240, - 10
4) Between 241-260, - 38
5) Between 261-280, - 35
6) between 281-300 - 10

7) Above 300 - 2

Added later: Shouldn't it be outside GDF for more visibility ?
Last edited by jamwal on 07 Apr 2014 23:55, edited 1 time in total.

Patni
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

1) Less than 200
2) Between 200-220,
3) Between 221-240,
4) Between 241-260,
5) Between 261-280,
6) between 281-300 or greater
7) More then 300
[0%,3%,15%,45%,25%,10%,2%]
Last edited by Patni on 08 Apr 2014 00:04, edited 1 time in total.

fanne
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

1) Less than 200 - 25
2) Between 200-220, - 35
3) Between 221-240, - 35
4) Between 241-260, - 5
5) Between 261-280, - 0
6) between 281-300 - 0
7) Above 300 - 0

Saral
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Patni, the last option is > 300 please add one more number and ensure all adds to 100.

Virupaksha
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

[60%,40%,0%,0%,0%,0%,0%]

KJo
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

225
I hope I am wrong and Modiji gets 300+

Virupaksha
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

this poll is biased from the outset in that it doesnt give bjp detractors room. Whatever the result, it will have a pro-bjp tilt.

A GJP poll only works if such a tilt doesnt exist.

choices should start right from 0 all the way to 540.
Last edited by Virupaksha on 08 Apr 2014 00:02, edited 1 time in total.

Saral
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Saral's estimates on 04-07-2014:

Code: Select all

`1)   Less than 200 : 02) Between 200-220 : 53) Between 221-240 : 154) Between 241-260 : 205) Between 261-280 : 306) between 281-300 : 157)       Above 300 : 15`

We can modify estimates once a week. So please don't edit old estimates (make a new post in this thread). You can paste my format and use that (just change my numbers)

Or just use the simpler format [0%,5%,15%, 20%,30%,15%,15%]
Last edited by Saral on 08 Apr 2014 00:04, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Thanks for the input but lets stick to the experiment.

KJo you need to give probabilities just as others have done.

muraliravi
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

200-220 is the my take with 185 for BJP and 35 for alliance partners

Saral
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

muraliravi: Please give prob estimates for all 7 ranges. Give zero for others if you are absolutely sure of your range.

SRoy
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

1) Less than 200 : 15
2) Between 200-220 : 5
3) Between 221-240 : 15
4) Between 241-260 : 15
5) Between 261-280 : 50
6) between 281-300 : 0
7) Above 300 : 0

RamaY
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

I voted 6 (281-300) and I give the probability of 6/10

1) Less than 200 : 0
2) Between 200-220 : 0
3) Between 221-240 : 10
4) Between 241-260 : 10
5) Between 261-280 : 20
6) between 281-300 : 40
7) Above 300 : 20

[0%,0%,10%,10%,20%,40%,20%]
Last edited by RamaY on 08 Apr 2014 00:26, edited 3 times in total.

ramana
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

You need to give the probabilities for the rest unless you want to say 0 for them.

Saral
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Virupaksha wrote:this poll is biased from the outset in that it doesnt give bjp detractors room. Whatever the result, it will have a pro-bjp tilt. A GJP poll only works if such a tilt doesnt exist. choices should start right from 0 all the way to 540.

100% to NDA < 200 would be clearly anti-NDA sentiment. We have narrowed plausible ranges based on pollsters. Its up to you to refine it further as per your bias. Yes, our forum is slanted but the question is if this slant affects our estimates. Maybe it does; we will find out surely at the end.

Saral
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

RamaY: Do you realize that your 2 statements are logically inconsistent? You said 60% and then you gave a 40% estimate for that range. In fact, your beliefs got moderated as you considered multiple possible ranges. Which is interesting.
Last edited by Saral on 08 Apr 2014 00:27, edited 1 time in total.

RamaY
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Saral wrote:RamaY: Do you realize that your 2 statements are logically inconsistent? You said 60% and then you gave a 40% estimate for that range.

Shouldn't it calculate up to that point? I gave 40 to that range and 20 to next range.

Saral
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

RamaY: Just nitpicking.. You are correct.

vivek.rao
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Being an eternaml optimist, my guesses are

BJP: 248

NDA: 312

Gus
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

250 for bjp and 300 for NDA.

Saral
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

Vivek and Gus: Could you indicate the probabilities for each of the 7 ranges? A single estimate means that you are saying 100% for one range and 0% for the rest. Question pertains to NDA numbers not BJP alone. Thanks.

Manish_Sharma
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

275 for BJP and 320 for NDA

NaMo Narayan

ramana
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many Seats will NDA win?

Folks its not helpful if you dont work a little bit hard. Please post the probablities for the questions in the given format.

Mort Walker
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

I think it is too early for this poll and after 10 April 2014 we'll have a better understanding.

5% 1) Less than 200
10% 2) Between 200-220,
15% 3) Between 221-240,
20% 4) Between 241-260,
30% 5) Between 261-280,
10% 6) between 281-300
10% 7) or greater than 300

Now that said, I am predicting at least 10% better for BJP than 1999 which is ~200 seats, but much depends on turnout.

ramana
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

You all will get more chances till 5/12.

ramana
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Saral, Can you run the numbers for those members who posted as of today?

Thanks, ramana

KJo
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

ramana wrote:Thanks for the input but lets stick to the experiment.

KJo you need to give probabilities just as others have done.

okay saar, here they are.

1) Less than 200 - 0%
2) Between 200-220, - 5%
3) Between 221-240, - 5%
4) Between 241-260, - 5%
5) Between 261-280, - 20%
6) between 281-300 - 60%
7) or greater 300 - 5%

Note, I am assigning percentages for NDA, not just BJP as I had earlier.

Vayutuvan
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll: How many Seats will NDA win in 2014 elec

1) Less than 200
2) Between 200-220,
3) Between 221-240,
4) Between 241-260,
5) Between 261-280,
6) between 281-300 or greater
7) More then 300
[5%,20%,40%,20%,10%,5%,0%]

kish
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

My prediction

5% 1) Less than 200
20% 2) Between 200-220
40% 3) Between 221-240
20% 4) Between 241-260
10% 5) Between 261-280
5% 6) between 281-300
0% 7) or greater 300

In the results section above this thread, I was expecting a normal Bell curve to represent the seat share in this poll, but surprised to see a unrealistic 300+ got more vote. In the pic below i have shaded the states in yellow where BJP/NDA has very little presence. So literally NDA is contesting from 390 seats, expecting it get more than 300 seats is unreasonable.

Saral
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Ramana, This is week 1. Can we wait for a few days before posting aggregates etc? Don't want to spoil the party for people who vote for the next few days. Maybe we can have a schedule of posting summaries on Friday? and telling people to make a new estimate from Monday onwards? Also I see some folks are shying away from giving 7 numbers. Surely it can't be that hard?

krisna
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

1) Less than 200 - 5%
2) Between 200-220, - 10%
3) Between 221-240, - 35%
4) Between 241-260, - 35%
5) Between 261-280, - 5%
6) between 281-300 - 5%
7) or greater 300 - 5%

My guess at present is around 220-260 >50%

will come touchingly close to magic 272.
NaMo will get the first shot at forming govt by Pranab da.
He will form govt. My only hope is that ladies - amma benehji or didi shoudl not have a say in securing govt majority. Ok with Naveen Patnaik.

The reason I give 5% for ech category above 260 is difficult becasue of major swings will occur to cause a jump at that range. same with lower ranges NDA/Modi wave is a reality.

If more people vote say >70-75% in each constituency then I predict a perfect Tsunamo with over 272 by NDA.

niran
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

>300, yeall know me, me is cowbelti know nothing probability wability
i go by house flies wishpers

SaiK
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

if bjp gets 272 all by themselves, booze on me!

Pratyush
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

What are the basis of assigning probability for any of the outcomes stated above. If I understood that I may be able to participate in this poll.

SaiK
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

one basis i could think is your interaction with speaking to your family and friends.

ramana
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### Re: GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Pratyush wrote:What are the basis of assigning probability for any of the outcomes stated above. If I understood that I may be able to participate in this poll.

it can be WAG or a SWAG. Let the mind speak and you can get to correct over the elections.