BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 25 Apr 2014 19:41

5 10 10 20 30 20 5

No change. East-South is still speculation.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 25 Apr 2014 22:13

looks like week 4 is set to be quite interesting.. anti-jinx mantras, dhoti-shivers all in full display

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 25 Apr 2014 23:32

I don't want to second-guess the "thread managers", but my suggestion is that people NOT post the "reasoning" behind their assessment.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 26 Apr 2014 00:22

I think its fine and even good for post-mortem after May 16 to also list reasons if we can. Not compulsory but I am encouraging it. There isn't any super-secret stuff that one or a few of us have privy to. In any case, the judges here are a stubborn lot and are not swayed much by others opinions.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Apr 2014 01:22

I upped the vote to 3 times for this week.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 26 Apr 2014 02:13

ramana wrote:I upped the vote to 3 times for this week.

I think the vote on the top is only vote once (I did that in the beginning). Is there something else we should know? Or are you saying that you scaled it up by a factor of 3 (likely meaning). What's the reason for doing so?

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 26 Apr 2014 08:13

Saral 0 0 0 0 0 0 100

Based on weakness of UPA. If UPA does badly the seats must go someplace else. Seems like the third front isn't going to be the main beneficiary except where they dominate already (Bengal). And the increase in vote turnout is highly significant and driven by younger demographics. So this is really based on a global pov. Specific recent trends pertain to TN trends and MH trends (notwithstanding voter list mess-ups, discounting EVM conspiracies).

p.s. If I was betting real money I'd hedge across the 281-300 and > 300 categories, 40 vs. 60. Since there is no money but only reputation involved, I can take more risk and hope for more reward.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Apr 2014 08:39

Hope you are right and muh me ghee shakkar or splenda!

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 26 Apr 2014 15:39

0 0 20 20 30 25 5

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 26 Apr 2014 21:23

Its going to be landslide, oops , old word, Super Tsunamo

Chaanakya 0 0 0 0 0 100

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 26 Apr 2014 23:07

Week 4: 0 0 0 0 10 10 80

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 26 Apr 2014 23:42

Saral wrote:p.s. If I was betting real money I'd hedge across the 281-300 and > 300 categories, 40 vs. 60.

Myself doing like that only for last two weeks

I hope your good self is having the correct prediction!

disha · Post by **disha** » 27 Apr 2014 00:09

Week 4

Disha 0 0 0 0 10 50 40

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 27 Apr 2014 00:23

B: 0 0 0 80 20 0
258 or 268

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 27 Apr 2014 22:26

Week 4 NDA:
Patni 0 0 0 10 60 25 5

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 28 Apr 2014 17:01

Week 4, NDA

klaus 0 0 40 35 25 0 0

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 28 Apr 2014 20:52

Week 4, NDA - It will be wave compared 2009, but not as big as we expect. We need to be realistic and Baba Ramdev may have done damage to prevent going over 300.

Mort Walker: 0 0 10 15 40 35 0

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 28 Apr 2014 22:41

Week 4

0 0 0 0 10 40 50

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 29 Apr 2014 01:15

Mihaylo - 0 40 40 15 5 0 0

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 29 Apr 2014 21:51

updating my week 4

Saral 0 0 0 0 0 55 45

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 30 Apr 2014 04:43

Vamsee week 4
0 20 20 30 20 10 0

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 30 Apr 2014 10:57

Mukesh Kumar- Fourth week predictor

<200 0%
200-220 20%
221-240 40%
241-260 30%
261-280 10%
281-300 0%
>300 0%

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 30 Apr 2014 14:56

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_po ... on%2c_2014

updated till April if anyone wants to have a quick look. Likely BJP wave? A few more days and we should know for sure!

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 30 Apr 2014 15:02

rajithn wrote:Week 4: 0 0 0 0 10 10 80

If editing is allowed, then I wish to change my Week 4.

0 0 0 0 0 15% 85%

If editing is not allowed, please go with my original. Thank you.

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 30 Apr 2014 15:04

Now that this round is ending in an hour or two I think I can say,

Anand K - 50 25 25 0 0 0 0

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 30 Apr 2014 19:16

You can edit or change till sometime tomorrow when Ramana will post a message here.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 30 Apr 2014 20:30

SRoy - 0 0 0 30 30 35 0

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 30 Apr 2014 23:31

Mort Walker wrote:Week 4, NDA - It will be wave compared 2009, but not as big as we expect. We need to be realistic and Baba Ramdev may have done damage to prevent going over 300.

Mort Walker: 0 0 0 30 40 30 0

EDITED 4/30/14.

rvishwak · Post by **rvishwak** » 01 May 2014 00:58

For Week4:

rvishwak 0 0 10 40 40 10 0

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 01 May 2014 01:26

B: 0 0 0 85 10 5
258 or 268

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 01 May 2014 03:49

My official prediction as of today

BJP between 180-250
Other NDA Allies 25-50

So Pre-Poll NDA 205-300

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 01 May 2014 04:55

Week4 devesh 0 0 0 40 60 0 0

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 01 May 2014 17:39

Joining in on week4

deejay: 0, 10, 10, 15, 20, 25, 20

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 01 May 2014 22:41

Week 4

Shakimaan 0 40 40 10 10 0 0

The election is going more or less as expected for us, but I still don't see a blockbuster performance anywhere that will boost pre-poll NDA over ~230 seats.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 May 2014 22:54

Saral, Does it make sense to run it today itself as the 7th phase concluded on 4/30? And can you graph the previous three rounds? Show the 272 target line horizontal to X-Axis which is the dates or round 1, 2 etc....
Show seats on Y axis. Maybe a bar graph or a line graph upt you.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 02 May 2014 05:47

I guess its ok to wait until tomorrow. Maybe we get a few more entries. I see that vijaykarthik has not yet provided his estimate for week4. I can provide median estimates for each week (1-4) and other basic stats as a table with 4 columns. Reserve graphing till its all over (post May 16).

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 02 May 2014 06:19

updating my week 4

Saral 0 0 0 0 0 75 25

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 02 May 2014 10:26

So far I have not seen any reason to downgrade my estimates of NDA getting more than 300+. In fact there are few states which where zero in my estimates might get few seats as bonus,: these are AP and WB. However, the undercurrent of voting seems to be Buddhu Vs Modi and People want to see Modi, irrespective of their local candidate, as PM. Only strong opposition candidate might survive the Tsunamo. Now this belieft is primarily based on three factors:
1. Large number of voter additions , mostly first timers , young ones. That is one constituency which NaMo has tried to build up assiduously. Addressed their concerns. Irrespective of their income level ( poor people, lower middle income group from rural hinterland of Bihar and UP have seen what Gujarat means to them, I know this first hand). They would vote keeping aside their caste affiliations.
2. Young professionals and Middle class. They are bearing the brunt of unemployment, low or stagnant wages, high aspirations, higher social status not commensurate with expected earnings, economic policies of UPA. They are hopeful of better opportunities if NaMo comes.
3.Women, for obvious reasons. They would be voting irrespective of castes.
The positive for congis would be Narega but it had negative impact on rural farming practices. So those who could not go out of the villeges and benefited from Narega may actually vote for congis besides menfolks who are not in any one of the productive age group, would vote based on caste affiliations. They are large in numbers yet not large enough now to affect NDA chances.
NAREGA had limited impact on Bihar anyway.

SO after 30th Poll

Chaanakya 0 0 0 0 0 100

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 02 May 2014 16:45

Narayana Rao - 0,0,0,30,50,20,0

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 02 May 2014 18:11

Week 5 for me

merlin 0 50 45 5 0 0 0