BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Rudradev » 02 May 2014 19:45

Week 5- Rudradev

20 40 35 5 0 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby RamaY » 02 May 2014 20:02

RamaY Week5

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby member_28352 » 02 May 2014 20:04

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby KLP Dubey » 02 May 2014 22:34

Week 5: 0 0 0 0 0 40 60

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby rajithn » 02 May 2014 22:54

Week 5: 0 0 0 0 0 10% 90%

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Saral » 02 May 2014 23:12

Haha.. I didn't see Ramana's usual post.. Will Consider all the week 5 entries as such, although we have till next Thursday evening to edit. Week 4 entries are one above merlin.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Kati » 03 May 2014 03:12

Kati: Week-5

0% 5% 10% 20% 15% 30% 20%

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Saral » 03 May 2014 06:40

Week 4 NDA

Week 1 median is 250, Week 2 is 259, Week 3 is 265 and Week 4 is 262 (mainly due to newbies who downshifted the distribution, else it should've stayed the same or gone up a bit). After May 16, I'll redo the analysis by carrying forward estimates of people who drop out. Am going to deviate from the normal format and just post estimates for 4 "groups" of judges. Even if you haven't estimated so far, here are the 4 groups, and you can place yourself in one of the groups. It looks like that no matter what, people aren't going to change a whole lot, going forward. Some new people joined in but they tend to give lower estimates mostly.

I think we need to understand why (i) we give the estimates we do, I will take a crack at this once I make this post (ii) why we differ from others (both above and below us) and (iii) is there any evidence that will make us shift our estimates, before exit-polls on May 12? Although muraliravi isn't here, I think he's clearly probably in the first or second group.

Pessimists :

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        AnandK        50     25     25      0      0      0      0         200            70
          kish        25     45     20     10      0      0      0         211            58
        merlin         5     50     35     10      0      0      0         220            67
       Mihaylo         0     40     40     15      5      0      0         227            63
     Shakimaan         0     40     40     10     10      0      0         228            62



Cautious Pessimists

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   MukeshKumar         0     20     40     30     10      0      0         236            57
        Vamsee         0     20     20     30     20     10      0         246            38
         klaus         0      0     40     35     25      0      0         248            68
    brihaspati         0      0      0     85     10      5      0         254            89
      Supratik         5     10     10     20     30     20      5         258            19
          SRoy         0      0      0     30     30     35      0         258            67



Cautious Optimists

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  vijaykarthik         0      0     12     38     38     12      0         260            59
      rvishwak         0      0     10     40     40     10      0         260            62
        devesh         0      0      0     40     60      0      0         262            84
 panduranghari         0      0     20     20     30     25      5         266            42
         Denis         0      0      5     25     60     10      0         266            70
   NarayanaRao         0      0      0     30     50     20      0         268            70
    MortWalker         0      0      0     30     40     30      0         270            67
        deejay         0     10     10     15     20     25     20         272            22
         Patni         0      0      0     10     60     25      5         276            70



Optimists

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         Saral         0      0      0      0      0     75     25         298            87
         Disha         0      0      0      0     10     50     40         300            74
      KLPDubey         0      0      0      0     10     40     50         303            74
         RamaY         0      0      0     20      0      0     80         306            89
       rajithn         0      0      0      0      0     15     85         316            91
     Chaanakya         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100

Saral
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Saral » 03 May 2014 07:01

Let me explain my judgments. Week 1 = 268. This was mostly based on various polls particularly NDTV in early April and the fact that the trendline across polls was in favor of NDA, since there was a month or more to go, I added a few more seats. Week 2 = 272, not a whole lot but things (based on twitter, reports from 5forty3 and others) were not going in the wrong direction. Week 3 = 275 again a modest shift tempered by reports of EVM and voter roll shenanigans. Week 4 = 296, Actually I clearly thought of 300+ If BJP lands 240+, Cannot NDA cross 300? But tempered my estimates later to move it below 300. Effect is based on performance in TN, Bengal, Odisha, Punjab where NDA wasn't expected to do much. As a raw number 296 sounds like a lot, say compared to 262 but I think this election is special, a referendum on Modi and stats from 2009 are mostly irrelevant as anchors. I do think that the Pessimists are arguably more irrational than the Optimists. Irrationality is not just about giving high estimates but also about giving needlessly low estimates. My optimism is really based on NDA performance in Metros (Delhi, Mumbai), Rural UP and Bihar and strongholds, as well as places like Chandigarh and Amritsar. And places like TN, Odisha, Bengal are a surprise (and maybe even AP/Telengana). All of this adds to one thing alone: The Modi factor, unflagging crowds and his campaign execution which is unprecedented and maybe will never be repeated or surpassed. That has to count for something. You can bet that if I keep hearing positives, I will go firmly in the 300+ camp.

An interesting single number contest could emulate "the price is right". Give the number that is a floor for NDA (ie real NDA would definitely be above it). The highest number that is less than or equal to the NDA total wins. If I took part in such a contest, I would say something like 282 as a max lower bound. If a new thread can be created (NDA estimate without going over the actual number) for that it might be interesting.. but there has to be deadline before May 12 for it to be locked as exit polls would have too much info and after that it becomes a random thing.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Klaus » 03 May 2014 12:30

Week 5, NDA

klaus 0 0 30 30 40 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby deejay » 03 May 2014 15:51

Week 5,
deejay 0 0 5 15 25 30 25

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby harbans » 03 May 2014 16:30

0,0,0,0,0,0,100%

Have been on NDA 300 plus since long before commencement of elections. Waves are not +40/50 seats shifts. That kind of shift occurs in anti-incumbency. This is anti-incumbency: shift of 50 seats + Modi wave: Shift of 50-80 Plus seats or more. IF we assume that then we easily go 300 plus for NDA.

http://oi60.tinypic.com/xle33c.jpg

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Mihaylo » 03 May 2014 23:59

Week 5
Mihaylo: 0 25 50 25 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby SwamyG » 04 May 2014 00:11

NDA, week 5:

0 5 35 35 10 10 5

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Mort Walker » 04 May 2014 01:06

Week 5:

Mort Walker: 0 0 0 40 50 10 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby panduranghari » 04 May 2014 04:18

0 0 60 30 5 5 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Yagnasri » 04 May 2014 05:45

Narayana Rao - 0,0,0,30,50,20,0

Noting major changed now. People already made up their mind. Last minute adjustments, booth capturing plans like TMC did were already factored. SP will try and fail in UP.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby vijaykarthik » 04 May 2014 09:34

Saral wrote:Let me explain my judgments. Week 1 = 268. This was mostly based on various polls particularly NDTV in early April and the fact that the trendline across polls was in favor of NDA, since there was a month or more to go, I added a few more seats. Week 2 = 272, not a whole lot but things (based on twitter, reports from 5forty3 and others) were not going in the wrong direction. Week 3 = 275 again a modest shift tempered by reports of EVM and voter roll shenanigans. Week 4 = 296, Actually I clearly thought of 300+ If BJP lands 240+, Cannot NDA cross 300? But tempered my estimates later to move it below 300. Effect is based on performance in TN, Bengal, Odisha, Punjab where NDA wasn't expected to do much. As a raw number 296 sounds like a lot, say compared to 262 but I think this election is special, a referendum on Modi and stats from 2009 are mostly irrelevant as anchors. I do think that the Pessimists are arguably more irrational than the Optimists. Irrationality is not just about giving high estimates but also about giving needlessly low estimates. My optimism is really based on NDA performance in Metros (Delhi, Mumbai), Rural UP and Bihar and strongholds, as well as places like Chandigarh and Amritsar. And places like TN, Odisha, Bengal are a surprise (and maybe even AP/Telengana). All of this adds to one thing alone: The Modi factor, unflagging crowds and his campaign execution which is unprecedented and maybe will never be repeated or surpassed. That has to count for something. You can bet that if I keep hearing positives, I will go firmly in the 300+ camp.

An interesting single number contest could emulate "the price is right". Give the number that is a floor for NDA (ie real NDA would definitely be above it). The highest number that is less than or equal to the NDA total wins. If I took part in such a contest, I would say something like 282 as a max lower bound. If a new thread can be created (NDA estimate without going over the actual number) for that it might be interesting.. but there has to be deadline before May 12 for it to be locked as exit polls would have too much info and after that it becomes a random thing.


Fascinating thoughts. Can you elaborate a bit of 282 as a max lower bound? That seems kind of shocking to me. So, you basically mean that NDA can make it to a wee bit more than majority _under_its_own_steam_. Mmh. I will put it at 240-250ish. Nothing more. A few seats here there in UP and Bihar can really shift the pattern quite significantly. And BJP for all its advantages, is just not a national party in terms of presence everywhere [they have an office and chai boys, attendants, office bearers, etc etc alright. That doesn't translate to (LS) seats though.]. So, in effect, we are talking about having a lot of eggs in a few baskets and if one of the baskets turn out rotten, well, that adds a lot of pressure. And though I have been an early bird in calling out for Modi and will want him in power [been so for about 8 years now, which is quite something], I will not be comfortable with a guy like Modi having a seat advantage of more than 10% more than that is reqd of majority -- that can add a new dimension that we cant factor -- Modi forming his own agenda. And we cant predict if its going to be a good thing or a bad thing. I will rather see him with all attendant checks and balances and as time goes by, give him more credit and more latitude.

Lets also remember, Modi is a divisive character and that makes me pause and worry. If it were really mentioned that its a referendum of Modi, I am guessing we will see only 150-180 seats. [But it might be fascinating to see how many actually are rooting for Modi vs rooting for change vs rootin for BJP etc etc].

All said and done, at the end of the day, I want mature adults who can take reasonably good decisions while at the helm. He seems to be one and I am all for it. The rest of the leadership crop don't seem to cut it currently. So, its a bit of a TINA factor too.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Saral » 04 May 2014 19:32

vijakarthik : Good points. We really need probability models a la American elections but we don't have those models. Intuition and gut is usually bad, except when it works. I am hoping this is one of those times when gut is accumulating various bits of correlated information that indicates a wave-type election. In my case, the rumored performance in Punjab and Maharashtra and TN where for various reasons NDA was weak. Ultimately, 260 NDA vs 300 NDA is the difference between mild wave+ strong anti-incumbency and strong wave+strong anti-incumbency; in retrospect, I went from the first narrative (theory) to the second and probably overshot in my fourth round; maybe I will scale back in the fifth round to a mean of 282 or so unless new info supports second model further. All I meant was that in a "price is right" gambling format where going-over the actual number is an automatic loss, I'd put 282 to minimize regret (It is as though I am imagining possibilities from 262 (true min) to 302 (true max) and choosing the middle, better to have fought and lost than not having fought at all). There will be fellows who will bid higher. You will bid higher than low 260s in this format, surely? I should've named it better. The fellow from chennai math institute @rkarandikar who does modeling for CNN-IBN places NDA at min of 240 based on late March polls. But recall that NDA hadn't peaked. So just how much is that worth and what about April events? Indian elections are much more than ideology.. its based on sense of obligations via caste etc. etc. trumping rational considerations. Thats why the youth (who are not saddled with such past connections) are giving a clear mandate and hopefully they've turned up in larger numbers than expected (no info on this). What about the media and the rallies? All these have favored NDA at an intensity not anticipated. Surely, there should be some effect of media/rallies?

Maybe in the end, NDA will just squeak past or just fall short of 272. I am just going with my gut here and am predicting 10 to 20 more as I don't have a model to rely on.

btw: I think we need more not less divisiveness (of the right kind), right now. Ultimately its calling the bluffs of various entrenched interests. For that you need to be blunt and be divisive (draw line in sand, show willingness to act, display positive options for adversary) and call the bluff (of course, this has to be calculated with moves planned ahead). This is OT but here is a really borderline crazy interpretation of Guj 2002. Let's assume that Modi did not do all that he could've done. Say the deaths would've been 200 and not 1000 if he did everything in his power. Remember this is a thought experiment onlee. Maybe we'd have seen a lot of low level rioting incidents throughout the next decade and less development. Maybe the ROP people did get a signal on what is "out of bounds" and beyond tolerance. Obviously, this kind of "what-if" analysis is too risky and out-of-bounds. More likely, he did do everything in his powers and what happened, happened but they had unintended (positive) effects overall for the state.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby vijaykarthik » 04 May 2014 22:40

mm, a fair argument. I am not bothered about the Gujarat 2k2 riot at all, actually. Heck, I don't remember seeing another riot or mass deaths due to questionable circs in Gujarat after 2k2 riots... which is something. So, I am not basing a lot of emphasis on 2k2 at all.

But I am more worried about Modi now that I see him closely -- he is an autocrat, sure and that is a good thing in a few ways. [I consider good leaders to be gentle autocrats as that's the only way to get stuff done - decisive and also give enough latitude]... however, I see a streak of stupidity in him. And that is a worry for me: stuff like taking a pic of a lotus plus him on the date of the elections. Stuff like "challenging / daring the EC to file another case against him" and a few of the talks and counter speeches that he gave. Besides, handling of the seniors of the party has left a lot of people disenchanted. He doesn't need to do things like these at all -- he is a serious PM candidate for gods sake... not some 3rd grade loafer who is attempting at a poor shot at becoming PM. And things like this aren't doing any good for his image at all... and the more he does strange stuff like this, the more he antagonizes the intellectuals... and once that happens, he will be in for a rude shock after the honeymoon period is over. He needs an image make over. And needs it quickly. He becomes PM in a matter of few weeks and idiocy of this kind wont cut it.

The best will be W Churchills words: "In victory: magnanimity. In peace: goodwill". Someone who is close to Modi will do well to talk to him about it. I don't know if he has a mentor at all. Or someone who can dress him down or check mate and check point him. Everyone seems to be in awe of him and no one who can really overrule him or make him see sense. And we badly need one in place... mainly because Modi is someone who is perhaps capable of a lot of things but he can presumably undo it himself because of his quirky character. And India cant afford to have a poor time now. That's my biggest worry. Besides, India is no Gujarat either. The challenges are immense and it doesn't take just 1 person to fix the problems.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby SwamyG » 04 May 2014 22:57

Vijay karthik: Politicians across the planet use emotions and rhetoric to sway voters. Showing lotus or challenging EC is not stupidity but part of a gameplay or rhetoric. The seniors did zilch, and they are where they are because of themselves. In fact Modi went out of way to pay respects to them.

These are not strange stuff, politicians of all hue and cry use such tactics.

As for one person fixing stuff, in any successful organizing the CEO charters and sets the vision for the company. The board of directors support him. Along with COO, CFO and other xCO they plan policies and ensure the right things are done. The people in the organization gets the things done. So Modi is not going to get into the Ganges to clean it up, but will call and set the direction. He will call the priorities out, and people will plan and execute them.

It comes to doing the right thing versus doing things right. Many of us expect and hope Modi will identify those right things to do.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby vic » 05 May 2014 00:05

I hope NDA gets 320 expect 300 and am prepared to settle for 260.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby kish » 05 May 2014 02:10

Week 5

3 12 24 33 19 9 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Denis » 05 May 2014 11:04

Week 5:

Denis: 0 0 0 10 30 60 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Supratik » 05 May 2014 13:58

Week 5 No change

5 10 10 20 30 20 5

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby deejay » 05 May 2014 14:04

vijaykarthik wrote: --" he is an autocrat, sure and that is a good thing in a few ways. [I consider good leaders to be gentle autocrats as that's the only way to get stuff done - decisive and also give enough latitude]... however, I see a streak of stupidity in him. And that is a worry for me"


Good Point sir. We have an example of an autocratic leader in a bout of stupidity derived from overconfidence has helped recreate the very challenge he had suppressed. The CM, Nitish Kumar, is fairly equal to Mr. Modi in his leadership style (a few notches milder, may be, but autocratic). His dictatorial rule controlled his own Ministers, M.P.s and M.L.A.s, policemen and also the mainstream media. His strong leadership pulled out a state from a fast tightening inverted spin. The people responded to it and gave him a landslide in 2010. Lalu and his goons were practically finished.

The huge landslide was attributed to solely Nitish by one and all. Here, the autocrat in Nitish made the stupid errors which every over confident autocrat makes. He broke ties with BJP sure of the 'secular vote bank'. Unfortunately, it has back fired. The secular vote bank has shifted to RJD because of the RJD - Congress tie up. The Giriraj mess up has further tightened this group. The damage to BJP will still be contained, but the JDU and not the RJD suddenly appears to be a spent force. The spectre of Lalu comeback in state elections, which will be precipitated to second half this year if Mr. Modi comes to power, is real and worrisome.The rise of Lalu and his goons could be the worst spinoff of this elections, all because a strong alliance of BJP and JDU was broken and the RJD has moved to fill in. The Sonia Gandhi trip to Imam Bukhari, has meant far more to Muslims in their identification of Congress as their party of choice and the JDU lost out. Nitish Kumar suddenly has no friends. A good leader doing a good job may loose out.

Mr. Narendra Modi will do well not to be over confident. 300+ seats is a sure way to make him over confident, arrogant and stupid. There is a narrow band for India's well being. 260 - 285 seats for NDA. I am afraid, anything more we will see Mr. Modi becoming stupid.
Last edited by ramana on 05 May 2014 23:18, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Added quote tag. ramana

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby chaanakya » 05 May 2014 15:41

In three terms that NaMo has been CM of GJ , he has not shown much of autocratic style of functioning. Let us not mistake a strong and decisive leadership style with that of Autocratic one. Also we should not make the mistake of manipulative , compromising and effeminate style of functioning with a consensus building visionary style of leadership. If we need to see what could be autocratic style then we should look no further than Nehru and Indira Gandhi. Afterall India suffered its worst during those periods when Emergency was imposed. It was Public which stood up against and voted IG out. Rest assured Public would get plenty of chance to correct NaMo if his style of proved to be autocratic. I think this line of thinking is BS and must be taken with loads of salt.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Saral » 05 May 2014 20:31

deejay: your post lacks depth. Learn how to use quotes. Know the difference between "loose" and "lose". Please observe how BR works before posting.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Vayutuvan » 06 May 2014 03:41

Week 5 (missed week 4)
matrimc 0 20 40 30 5 5 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby brihaspati » 06 May 2014 07:04

B wk5 000 80 15 5 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Vamsee » 06 May 2014 07:23

Vamsee Week 5
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby chaanakya » 06 May 2014 11:16

In my opinion NaMo Amethi Blockbuster Rally would affect results more in other seats than in Amethi itself. This has shown NaMo in stronger light that he is not afraid of taking on the Mafiosi. He is now pulling out all those traditional cards and throwing the political rule book at the opponents and daring EC to act. in last four days of electioneering. Someone was commenting earlier that he was named PM candidate he may peak early causing voter fatigue. Not only he shows no sign of peaking as yet but also keeping voters' interest glued to his rallies across the country. The undercurrent of support is now becoming quite visible, just as Tsunamo approaches the coast. This has left opposition fuming and ranting and even the core and charming young heartthrob leaders are revealed as shallow.

deejay
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby deejay » 06 May 2014 13:23

saral: Yes, will keep it in mind. Still trying to get the quote tag proper. Will lake care of the grammar too. The increased depth part - ... Well, in time , I guess.

Mukesh.Kumar
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 06 May 2014 13:59

Mukesh Kumar:

W2 W3 W4 W5
<200 5% 5% 0% 0%
200-220 15% 25% 20% 25%
221-240 25% 35% 40% 45%
241-260 20% 25% 30% 25%
261-280 20% 10% 10% 5%
281-300 15% 0% 0% 0%
>300 0% 0% 0% 0%

Much as I would want to be proved wrong, I feel that the pro-BJP feeling and confidence has gone down a bit in the last week. Maybe it's fatigue setting in, but there is an increasing divergence in result forecasts and headlines across pro and anti BJP houses. My reading is that the level of uncertainty has increased. Generally crowds pick up and amplify underlying themes and trends, and when that is missing then wilder speculation starts to increase. The tea leaves don't look good. I would say that by now the trend is settling in on around mid 200's or slightly lower.

Also, I am looking at weekly data on the Sensex. Though the last few days has seen a slight rise, it is lower than in the last few heady days of end April. If one assumes that the market is rooting for a stable government under NDA, is a barometer of popular perception of how business perceives coming days, then things don't look so rosy.
Image

Sorry could not embed the image. If anyone could help me on how to do this without publishing my Gmail id, would really be helpful

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby vijaykarthik » 06 May 2014 14:23

Pretty interesting, actually. The last report I checked says that Shah is sort of confident that BJP can win in Amethee. My thoughts: even if that doesn't happen, if Modi can prick the possibility of Congress losing a safe seat, the GOP will suddenly feel like _the_emperor_who_didnt_wear_clothes. And Shah from what I have read is pretty practical as a person. [Will he _actually_ conjure up a win in Amethi? Boy, that will have seismic shifts in the political circle! I sure will love it. :-)]

A qn which can be interesting: By <what margin> should Rahul win for him to consider it a victory? I would say it should be at least 100k votes. Anything lesser basically means that the balloon has been pricked and the effects are going to be quite telling. Thoughts?

If he actually ends up losing it, I will stick my neck out and say Congress is finished as a party for at least 2 terms unless there is a new priyanka factor (possible) or BJP does very badly (I will say there is less than a 20-25% chance of that happening)

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 06 May 2014 14:45

Guys, I know I am being slightly pessimistic, but don't stay in India, and I don't watch TV. The Internet, second hand reports of TV, and talking to people back home are my other sources of info other than BRF. But somehow, it seems from afar that all is not hunky-dory. I get the same initially feeling of exultation, which I have learned to temper with caution, that I get at Sales Conferences. Not everyone who, gushes effusive about the new product buys it. Call it gut.

And never ever before in my life have I wished to be proved wrong so strongly.

The important thing is not to worry too much. Last leg, slog overs. Calling up folks back in WB, need to get the vote out early tomorrow morning.

कर्मणयेवाधिकारस्ते मा फलेषु कदाचन।
मा कर्मफलहेतुर्भूर्मा ते सङ्गोऽस्त्वकर्मणि।

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby chaanakya » 06 May 2014 15:00

I guess I am the only member who is from India and who is also feeling confident of NaMo win. :D

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby member_28173 » 06 May 2014 19:01

0 0 0 0 0 100% for Nda
0 0 0 0 100 0 for bjp

Mihaylo
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Mihaylo » 07 May 2014 00:27

I am revising down my last projections just because I feel we are discounting the possible significant impact of EVM magic and rigging.

Before:
Week 5
Mihaylo: 0 25 50 25 0 0

After
Week 5
Mihaylo: 0 45 40 15 0 0

ramana
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby ramana » 07 May 2014 05:26

I think 'extreme aversion" bias is at play with members for NDA along with 'status quo' bias for UPA because of reports of EC, voter fraud, booth capturing etc....


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