BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Mihaylo
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Mihaylo » 09 May 2014 22:04

Mihaylo
Week 6:
0 0 5 40 50 5 0

brihaspati
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby brihaspati » 10 May 2014 02:54

B week 6 0 0 0 90 10 0
Also the numbers 258 268

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Saral » 10 May 2014 06:06

Week 5 NDA

Good Participation with 30 folks. The median reduces to 259 but the mean is now 266. If we weigh each estimate by the confidence, then the weighted mean estimate is exactly 8) 272! Median confidence is high at 72, so there has been the expected tendency to narrow the range. If we believe in the wisdom of the crowd, then the most likely range is 260 to 280 which seems to be consistent with one stray twitter report regarding an exit poll leak.

Code: Select all

         JINGO    NDA180 NDA210 NDA230 NDA250 NDA270 NDA290 NDA320    ESTIMATE    CONFIDENCE
         
        AnandK        50     25     25      0      0      0      0         200            70
      Rudradev        20     40     35      5      0      0      0         213            61
        merlin         0     50     45      5      0      0      0         221            77
       Mihaylo         0     45     40     15      0      0      0         224            71
        Marten         0     30     40     20     10      0      0         232            57
   MukeshKumar         0     25     45     25      5      0      0         232            61
       matrimc         0     20     40     30      5      5      0         237            52
 panduranghari         0      0     60     30      5      5      0         242            73
          kish         3     12     24     33     19      9      0         246            34
        Vamsee         0     15     25     30     20     10      0         247            39
      rvishwak         0      5     10     70     15      0      0         249            75
        SwamyG         0      0     40     35     10     10      5         252            53
         Klaus         0      0     30     30     40      0      0         252            67
    brihaspati         0      0      0     80     15      5      0         256            86
      Supratik         5     10     10     20     30     20      5         258            19
  vijaykarthik         0      0     12     38     38     12      0         260            59
    MortWalker         0      0      0     40     50     10      0         264            74
   NarayanaRao         0      0      0     30     50     20      0         268            70
          Kati         0      5     10     20     15     30     20         275            28
         Denis         0      0      0     10     30     60      0         280            76
         Patni         0      0      0      0     55     35     10         282            75
        deejay         0      0      5     15     25     30     25         284            43
    ShankarCag         0      0      0      0      0    100      0         290           100
         Saral         0      0      0      0      0     40     60         308            84
      KLPDubey         0      0      0      0      0     30     70         311            86
       rajithn         0      0      0      0      0     10     90         317            94
         RamaY         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
       harbans         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
     chaanakya         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
 chandturakhia         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100

Shaktimaan
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Shaktimaan » 10 May 2014 14:42

Shakimaan Week 6 : 0 40 40 10 10 0 0

I've been consistently feeling that the pre-poll NDA is headed to 230-240 seats. Whatever positive news comes out, is balanced by bad news of EVM magic, rigging in WB and UP, Sampath = Janpath, etc.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Mort Walker » 10 May 2014 17:57

Mort Walker Week 6: 0 0 0 50 50 0 0

Turning a little pessimistic as the last 3 phases of Bihar are yielding 12/21, Andhra appears to be toward YSR (Jagan), and massive voter fraud in other states.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 10 May 2014 23:44

Mukesh.Kumar Week 6-
0,20,50,30,0,0,0

SwamyG
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby SwamyG » 10 May 2014 23:56

SwamyG: Week 6
0,5,45,40,10,0,0

narrowing down a little bit from Week 5: 0,0,40,35,10,10,5

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby rajithn » 11 May 2014 00:05

Rajithn:

Week 5: 0 0 0 0 0 10 90

Somehow my contribution is missing in Saral's summary for week 5.

Week 6: 0 0 0 0 0 10 90

Saral
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Saral » 11 May 2014 00:15

rajithn wrote:Rajithn:
Week 5: 0 0 0 0 0 10 90
Somehow my contribution is missing in Saral's summary for week 5.


It is there. For week 6, using exit poll info is allowed. we will do it in 2 parts.. Pre exit-poll (currently active, assumed to be same as week 5 unless you make an active entry) and Post-exit poll after Monday 6 pm IST.
Last edited by Saral on 11 May 2014 03:14, edited 1 time in total.

SwamyG
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby SwamyG » 11 May 2014 00:23

Oh i thought we ought to predict before the exit polls, that was part of the fun. If exit polls are allowed then it becomes a little "tainted" no?

Saral
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Saral » 11 May 2014 03:06

Well, we have plenty of data from weeks 1 to 5 to know your judgments. Last week can be a bit different and contaminated .. that's ok. If people do want to give their inputs before exit polls that's fine too; at this point there's really not too much reason to shift from week 5 ratings. I am poll fatigued and am looking towards May 16.

So at this point, I am assuming that everyone's week 6 pre-exit poll ratings are the same as week 5. If not, post your mods here as SwamyG did. Anything after exit polls start can be labelled "Post Exit Polls".

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Saral » 11 May 2014 03:11

ok, eating my own dog food..

Week 6 pre-exit poll

Saral 0 0 0 0 0 0 100

toning down a bit and banking on NDA to land above 280

300+ is a possibility and Chaanakya could be our winner.
Last edited by Saral on 12 May 2014 01:43, edited 1 time in total.

brihaspati
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby brihaspati » 11 May 2014 07:09

B wk 6 pre exit poll 0 0 0 5 90 5 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby vijaykarthik » 11 May 2014 08:57

mrkts were up smartly based on a "leaked" exit poll. Wonder who leaked it. In the meanwhile, John Dreze calls the Gujurat model a middling model. [Quite fair too, to be honest. I don't see anything great about the model based purely on ground truths. However, that doesn't make Modi any lesser / better]

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Patni » 11 May 2014 09:05

Week 6
Patni 0 0 0 0 65 35 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby vijaykarthik » 11 May 2014 09:13

Saral wrote:
rajithn wrote:Rajithn:
Week 5: 0 0 0 0 0 10 90
Somehow my contribution is missing in Saral's summary for week 5.


It is there. For week 6, using exit poll info is allowed. we will do it in 2 parts.. Pre exit-poll (currently active, assumed to be same as week 5 unless you make an active entry) and Post-exit poll after Monday 6 pm IST.


-- this is brilliant. Some way by which we can cover how we take our judgments into consideration given new facts is good. that's as important as blindly judging estimates based on group think / bias.

[trick qn / food for thought: if our estimates are just on basis of our minds (aka bias) how good is the actual estimate / judgment? Wink]

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Yagnasri » 11 May 2014 09:40

Narayana Rao 6th week same as before.

I fee the rigging has taken some toll. But there is also increase in possible winnable seats and both cancelled out. Rigging will help only so much and mainly effective against an opponent not having equal power to ring like BJP in WB. Otherwise in placed like UP BJP will not allow wholesale rigging and will rig where ever they can. So now much advantage there.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby panduranghari » 11 May 2014 12:44

0 0 60 30 5 5 0

vijaykarthik
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby vijaykarthik » 11 May 2014 15:14

Has anyone thought of the possibility of the BJP rigging? They have a lot at stake and if the other parties do it, why not the BJP too?

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby member_28173 » 11 May 2014 17:38

Week 6: 0 0 0 0 0 10 90

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ramana
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby ramana » 11 May 2014 20:21

vijaykarthik wrote:Has anyone thought of the possibility of the BJP rigging? They have a lot at stake and if the other parties do it, why not the BJP too?


You need to have EC appointed by BJP for this to happen. BJP run states are still managed by CEC.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby rvishwak » 11 May 2014 20:49

rvishwak

Week 6 [Pre Exit Poll] :

0 0 0 60 40 0 0


Changed from Week 5 which was 0 5 10 70 15 0 0.
1) Sensex rise
2) Namo not present in Varanasi during last 2-3 days before it goes to polls, shows the confidence.
3) Congi trying everything from raising Gujrat Coastal Security issue to EC raiding BJP's Varanasi office shows the desperation to stop Namo becoming PM and implicate him in something
4) Reports talking about NDA making inroads in states where they didn't even had a chance till few weeks back like WB, TN, Oddisa. If the reports are correct then NDA should do well in states where they are strong/ semi-strong.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby RamaY » 12 May 2014 03:39

RamaY week6: 0 0 0 0 0 0 100

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby deejay » 12 May 2014 09:38

deejay week6: 0 10 10 10 15 25 30

suryag
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby suryag » 12 May 2014 10:03

Sir - can someone post all opinion poll data before the election started here please?

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby vijaykarthik » 12 May 2014 12:23

^^ I had put up a few links earlier already. pl chk the first few pages for the links.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Manish_Sharma » 12 May 2014 15:19

So the inputs from posters would keep pouring like this till May 16th or some average is going to be taken from all the inputs and presented here before May 16th?

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby chaanakya » 12 May 2014 15:28

Ok my Last posting prior to Close of the Poll.

Wk6
Chaanakya 0 0 0 0 0 100

Shanmukh
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Shanmukh » 12 May 2014 17:01

My one and only prediction.

NDA - 220-240 (50%)
NDA-240-260 (45%)
NDA (260-280) (5%)

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Saral » 12 May 2014 17:12

Ok since exit polls are almost upon us time to move to post-exit polls shortly.

Week 6 pre-exit poll (last minute shivers)

Saral 0 0 0 0 20 60 20


from now on please add "post exit-polls" to your forecasts.
Bonus: Also include a specific number for NDA as your best guess.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby SRoy » 12 May 2014 19:09

SRoy 0 0 0 0 0 50 50

Saral
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Saral » 12 May 2014 20:49

Reminder: You can also put a specific number as NDA total.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby vijaykarthik » 12 May 2014 20:56

vijaykarthik 0 0 0 12 82 6 0 [260 59]


Somehow, I got the vague number a few days back that NDA will get 268. UPA at 112. Lets see how it goes.

I will put it at 262-268 currently for NDA.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Denis » 12 May 2014 21:44

Denis

Week 6: 0 0 0 0 0 75 25

NDA Final Expected: 291

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Patni » 12 May 2014 21:50

Post Exit-Polls
Patni 0 0 0 0 5 70 25
NDA : 305

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby brihaspati » 12 May 2014 23:21

post exit polls, but not considering exit polls: not much change from previous
B: 0 0 0 0 95 5 0
Number as I have been saying for some time now : 268

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Mihaylo » 13 May 2014 00:59

Post Exit Polls:
Mihaylo: 0 0 0 100 0 0 0
NDA: 260
Last edited by Mihaylo on 13 May 2014 09:11, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Vayutuvan » 13 May 2014 06:26

matrimc 0 0 10 30 45 10 5

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby Yagnasri » 13 May 2014 06:32

Narayana Rao
post poll
0 0 10 20, 50 10 10

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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Postby KLP Dubey » 13 May 2014 06:49

Post poll: 0 0 0 0 0 25 75
NDA: 310


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