## BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

panduranghari
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

panduranghari 95 5 0 0 0 0 0

krisna
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

<100: 60
101-110: 10
111-120: 10
121-130: 10
131-140: 5
141-150: 5
>150: 0

RamaY
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

RamaY 70 20 10 0 0 0 0

Vayutuvan
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

[matrimc,upa,[5%,5%,10%,30%,30%,10%,10%]]

Klaus
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

GJP Week 2, UPA values

40%, 20%, 20%, 20%, 0%, 0%, 0%

klaus 40 20 20 20 0 0 0
Last edited by ramana on 14 Apr 2014 21:02, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: ramana

disha
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Updated based on first phases of polling:

1) Less than <100 20%
2) Between 101-110 30%
3) Between 111-120 50%
4) Between 121-130 0
5) Between 131-140 0
6) Between 141-150 0
7) Greater than > 150 0

Put it this way., 100% confidence that CongIs will not cross 120.

(Edit'ed to make it saral for Saral)

Disha 20 30 50 0 0 0 0
Last edited by disha on 13 Apr 2014 22:41, edited 1 time in total.

Vayutuvan
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

matrimc wrote:[matrimc,upa,[5%,5%,10%,30%,30%,10%,10%]]

Saral Same info but easier format for second week.

matrimc 5 5 10 30 30 10 10

rvishwak
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

rvishwak 50 50 0 0 0 0 0

Patni
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

UPA 2nd week:

Patni 70 25 5 0 0 0 0

brihaspati
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Waters are very muddy:

Last week: Did not post.
This week:
1) Less than <100 1%
2) Between 101-110 4%
3) Between 111-120 10%
4) Between 121-130 15%
5) Between 131-140 35%
6) Between 141-150 30%
7) Greater than > 150 5%

brihaspati 1 4 10 15 35 30 5

Saral
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Saral 5 35 35 15 10 0 0

chaanakya
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Chaanakya 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 ( for INC)

Chaanakya 40 60 0 0 0 0 ( for UPA)

kapilrdave
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Sadly there is no choice for <75.

100%... rest all shunya.

Saral
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

18 entries so far in round 2 of UPA (21 in week 1)

chaanakya
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Chaanakya 100 0 0 0 0 0

Sorry Ramana Garu that was some confusion. I was posting for INC whereas thread was for UPA. INC will be below 100 so I will be posting only for UPA as is required. Pressure of election is too much. Need to shuffle between both Election and BRF.
Last edited by chaanakya on 18 Apr 2014 21:52, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

C are you updating your input?

ramana
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Thread locked for data processing. Saral post a request in GJP thread to unlock.
Thanks,ramana

ramana
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Unlocked and incremented the vote by +1 for this week. Will increment again after nex round, ie 4/28th

RamaY
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

RamaY week 3

70 0 0 30 0 0 0

sivab
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

ramana wrote:Unlocked and incremented the vote by +1 for this week. Will increment again after nex round, ie 4/28th

Next round is on 4/30, not 4/28.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... theme=true

krisna
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

same as last phase of elcetions for this phase also.

Saral
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Week 2 UPA

Table 1 is sorted in order of mean estimates (ESTIMATE) from each of the 18 distributions (rows). I use the center of each range as the weighting factor for each frequency (so 105.5 for the range 101 to 110). I used 85 and 165 as weights for the end ranges.

Table 2 is sorted by CONFIDENCE inferred from each distribution. A perfectly uniform distribution indicates zero confidence (extreme hedging). At the other extreme, a confidence of 100 is assigned to people who put everything in 1 bin (zero hedging). Calculation: Each column in a row has an entropy term -p*log(p). Sum these up for each row and take the exponential of the entropy (sum of terms within row). Subtract from 7, divide by 6, and multiply by 100 to map the score to the range 0 to 100.

ESTIMATE has mean=104, median=99, and SD=16. CONFIDENCE has mean=68, median=75, and SD=23. The correlation between deviation of ESTIMATE from the mean (of 104) and the CONFIDENCE score is negative at -0.37. If we weigh each ESTIMATE by the CONFIDENCE, then the weighted estimate is 99.

Table 1

Compared to Week 1, UPA median has gone down to 99 from 105 and the consensus across judges has increased (SD declined to 16 from 20). The median confidence at 75 is also higher than that for week 1 where it was 68. Jingos seem a lot more confident about UPA non-performance than NDA over-performance.

Code: Select all

`         JINGO      UPA85 UPA105 UPA115 UPA125 UPA135 UPA145 UPA165    ESTIMATE    CONFIDENCE              chaanakya      100      0      0      0      0      0      0          85           100    kapilrdave      100      0      0      0      0      0      0          85           100 panduranghari       95      5      0      0      0      0      0          86            96         RamaY       70     20     10      0      0      0      0          92            80         Patni       70     25      5      0      0      0      0          92            82          SaiK       75     10      5      4      3      2      1          94            73      rvishwak       50     50      0      0      0      0      0          95            83     Chaanakya       40     60      0      0      0      0      0          97            84          saip       50     30     15      5      0      0      0          98            64        krisna       60     10     10     10      5      5      0         100            56         Denis       30     60     10      0      0      0      0         100            76         klaus       40     20     20     20      0      0      0         103            54         disha       20     30     50      0      0      0      0         106            70         Saral        5     35     35     15     10      0      0         114            49    HariSeldon        0     10     60     30      0      0      0         118            76       matrimc        5      5     10     30     30     10     10         130            24        Marten        0     10     10     20     30     20     10         134            26    brihaspati        1      4     10     15     35     30      5         135            37 `

Table 2

Code: Select all

`         JINGO     UPA85 UPA105 UPA115 UPA125 UPA135 UPA145 UPA165    ESTIMATE    CONFIDENCE                matrimc        5      5     10     30     30     10     10         130            24        Marten        0     10     10     20     30     20     10         134            26    brihaspati        1      4     10     15     35     30      5         135            37         Saral        5     35     35     15     10      0      0         114            49         klaus       40     20     20     20      0      0      0         103            54        krisna       60     10     10     10      5      5      0         100            56          saip       50     30     15      5      0      0      0          98            64         disha       20     30     50      0      0      0      0         106            70          SaiK       75     10      5      4      3      2      1          94            73         Denis       30     60     10      0      0      0      0         100            76    HariSeldon        0     10     60     30      0      0      0         118            76         RamaY       70     20     10      0      0      0      0          92            80         Patni       70     25      5      0      0      0      0          92            82      rvishwak       50     50      0      0      0      0      0          95            83     Chaanakya       40     60      0      0      0      0      0          97            84 panduranghari       95      5      0      0      0      0      0          86            96     chaanakya      100      0      0      0      0      0      0          85           100    kapilrdave      100      0      0      0      0      0      0          85           100             `

Denis
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

3rd week : 30 65 05 0 0 0 0

RamaY
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

RamaY week 3

70 0 0 30 0 0 0

chaanakya
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Chaanakya 70 30 0 0 0 0

panduranghari
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

0 80 20 0 0 0 0

devesh
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

devesh 25 25 25 25 0 0 0

Revision: didn't realize this was for entire UPA coalition, and not just INC.

devesh 0 0 5 25 30 25 15
Last edited by devesh on 19 Apr 2014 20:35, edited 2 times in total.

brihaspati
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

B: 0 0 0 10 40 40 0

johneeG
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

I think there is no UPA. UPA was a post-poll alliance and many of its constituents have changed. There is no such thing as UPA, in my opinion. It depends on the seat tally of congress. I think congress will get 40-60 seats which means BJP can get around 270 on its own. Then, all opposition(including left and congress) will unite.

KLP Dubey
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

20 30 40 10 0 0 0

Saral
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Saral 15 35 35 15 0 0 0

Patni
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

week 3
Patni 65 25 10 0 0 0 0

brihaspati
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

0 0 40 40 10 10

Klaus
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

GJP, Week 3, UPA

klaus 0 20 20 20 30 10 0

KLP Dubey
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

20 30 50 0 0 0 0

jamwal
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Week 3, UPA
jamwal 0 0 5 40 25 15 15

ramana
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Marten . We are still in 3 week. Wait till Friday.

ramana
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Saral, Its 5:00pm EST. Please use data from posts above this.

Thanks,

ramana

Saral
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Week 3 UPA

Table 1 is sorted in order of mean estimates (ESTIMATE) from each of the 12 distributions (rows). I use the center of each range as the weighting factor for each frequency (so 105.5 for the range 101 to 110). I used 85 and 165 as weights for the end ranges.

Table 2 is sorted by CONFIDENCE inferred from each distribution. A perfectly uniform distribution indicates zero confidence (extreme hedging). At the other extreme, a confidence of 100 is assigned to people who put everything in 1 bin (zero hedging). Calculation: Each column in a row has an entropy term -p*log(p). Sum these up for each row and take the exponential of the entropy (sum of terms within row). Subtract from 7, divide by 6, and multiply by 100 to map the score to the range 0 to 100.

ESTIMATE has mean=113, median=109, and SD=17. CONFIDENCE has mean=63, median=66, and SD=21. The correlation between deviation of ESTIMATE from the mean (of 113) and the CONFIDENCE score is negative at -0.23. If we weigh each ESTIMATE by the CONFIDENCE, then the weighted estimate is 109.

Table 1

Compared to Week 2, UPA median has gone up to 109 from 99 and the consensus across judges has remained the same (SD is 17 vs. 16 in week 2). The median confidence at 66 is lower than 75 for week 2, but is higher than NDA estimates. Jingos seem more confident about UPA non-performance than NDA over-performance. Participation rate for UPA is dropping, from 18 folks in week 2 to 12 folks in week 3.

Code: Select all

`         JINGO      UPA85 UPA105 UPA115 UPA125 UPA135 UPA145 UPA165    ESTIMATE    CONFIDENCE     chaanakya       70     30      0      0      0      0      0          91            86         Patni       65     25     10      0      0      0      0          93            77         RamaY       70      0      0     30      0      0      0          97            86         Denis       30     65      5      0      0      0      0         100            80      KLPDubey       20     30     50      0      0      0      0         106            70 panduranghari        0     80     20      0      0      0      0         108            89         Saral       15     35     35     15      0      0      0         109            55         klaus        0     20     20     20     30     10      0         124            38    brihaspati        0      0     40     40     10     10      0         124            62        Marten        0     10     10     20     20     30     10         134            26        jamwal        0      0      5     40     25     15     15         136            47        devesh        0      0      5     25     30     25     15         139            43 `

Table 2

Code: Select all

`         JINGO     UPA85 UPA105 UPA115 UPA125 UPA135 UPA145 UPA165    ESTIMATE    CONFIDENCE        Marten        0     10     10     20     20     30     10         134            26         klaus        0     20     20     20     30     10      0         124            38        devesh        0      0      5     25     30     25     15         139            43        jamwal        0      0      5     40     25     15     15         136            47         Saral       15     35     35     15      0      0      0         109            55    brihaspati        0      0     40     40     10     10      0         124            62      KLPDubey       20     30     50      0      0      0      0         106            70         Patni       65     25     10      0      0      0      0          93            77         Denis       30     65      5      0      0      0      0         100            80     chaanakya       70     30      0      0      0      0      0          91            86         RamaY       70      0      0     30      0      0      0          97            86 panduranghari        0     80     20      0      0      0      0         108            89    `

RamaY
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### Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Week 4: 50 0 0 50 0 0 0

Revelation 425:
The Anti-Modi mafia has only two political centers - Congress & 3rd-Front.
If it comes to grouping under one safe & well-funded umbrella the termites will prefer Congress and not some Turd-fronts.
It is also easy to manage EVMs/Voters list in this direction.
Keep the opposition united. It also helps Congress to survive and no one cares about Turd-front regional parties.