BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby panduranghari » 12 Apr 2014 01:17

panduranghari 95 5 0 0 0 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby krisna » 12 Apr 2014 01:33

<100: 60
101-110: 10
111-120: 10
121-130: 10
131-140: 5
141-150: 5
>150: 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby RamaY » 12 Apr 2014 04:03

RamaY 70 20 10 0 0 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby Vayutuvan » 12 Apr 2014 04:06

[matrimc,upa,[5%,5%,10%,30%,30%,10%,10%]]

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby Klaus » 12 Apr 2014 18:41

GJP Week 2, UPA values

40%, 20%, 20%, 20%, 0%, 0%, 0%

klaus 40 20 20 20 0 0 0
Last edited by ramana on 14 Apr 2014 21:02, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: ramana

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby disha » 13 Apr 2014 04:51

Updated based on first phases of polling:

1) Less than <100 20%
2) Between 101-110 30%
3) Between 111-120 50%
4) Between 121-130 0
5) Between 131-140 0
6) Between 141-150 0
7) Greater than > 150 0

Put it this way., 100% confidence that CongIs will not cross 120.

(Edit'ed to make it saral for Saral)

Disha 20 30 50 0 0 0 0
Last edited by disha on 13 Apr 2014 22:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby Vayutuvan » 13 Apr 2014 08:44

matrimc wrote:[matrimc,upa,[5%,5%,10%,30%,30%,10%,10%]]

Saral Same info but easier format for second week.

matrimc 5 5 10 30 30 10 10

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby rvishwak » 13 Apr 2014 14:58

rvishwak 50 50 0 0 0 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby Patni » 14 Apr 2014 16:52

UPA 2nd week:

Patni 70 25 5 0 0 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby brihaspati » 15 Apr 2014 03:03

Waters are very muddy:

Last week: Did not post.
This week:
1) Less than <100 1%
2) Between 101-110 4%
3) Between 111-120 10%
4) Between 121-130 15%
5) Between 131-140 35%
6) Between 141-150 30%
7) Greater than > 150 5%

brihaspati 1 4 10 15 35 30 5

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby Saral » 15 Apr 2014 06:15

Saral 5 35 35 15 10 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby chaanakya » 15 Apr 2014 10:50

Chaanakya 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 ( for INC)

Chaanakya 40 60 0 0 0 0 ( for UPA)

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby kapilrdave » 17 Apr 2014 17:08

Sadly there is no choice for <75.

100%... rest all shunya.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby Saral » 17 Apr 2014 19:41

18 entries so far in round 2 of UPA (21 in week 1)

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby chaanakya » 17 Apr 2014 22:49

Chaanakya 100 0 0 0 0 0

Sorry Ramana Garu that was some confusion. I was posting for INC whereas thread was for UPA. INC will be below 100 so I will be posting only for UPA as is required. Pressure of election is too much. Need to shuffle between both Election and BRF.
Last edited by chaanakya on 18 Apr 2014 21:52, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby ramana » 18 Apr 2014 01:43

C are you updating your input?

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby ramana » 18 Apr 2014 03:37

Thread locked for data processing. Saral post a request in GJP thread to unlock.
Thanks,ramana

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby ramana » 18 Apr 2014 05:25

Unlocked and incremented the vote by +1 for this week. Will increment again after nex round, ie 4/28th

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby RamaY » 18 Apr 2014 05:31

RamaY week 3

70 0 0 30 0 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby sivab » 18 Apr 2014 05:34

ramana wrote:Unlocked and incremented the vote by +1 for this week. Will increment again after nex round, ie 4/28th


Next round is on 4/30, not 4/28.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... theme=true

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby krisna » 18 Apr 2014 05:58

same as last phase of elcetions for this phase also.

:(( :((

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby Saral » 18 Apr 2014 06:10

Week 2 UPA

Table 1 is sorted in order of mean estimates (ESTIMATE) from each of the 18 distributions (rows). I use the center of each range as the weighting factor for each frequency (so 105.5 for the range 101 to 110). I used 85 and 165 as weights for the end ranges.

Table 2 is sorted by CONFIDENCE inferred from each distribution. A perfectly uniform distribution indicates zero confidence (extreme hedging). At the other extreme, a confidence of 100 is assigned to people who put everything in 1 bin (zero hedging). Calculation: Each column in a row has an entropy term -p*log(p). Sum these up for each row and take the exponential of the entropy (sum of terms within row). Subtract from 7, divide by 6, and multiply by 100 to map the score to the range 0 to 100.

ESTIMATE has mean=104, median=99, and SD=16. CONFIDENCE has mean=68, median=75, and SD=23. The correlation between deviation of ESTIMATE from the mean (of 104) and the CONFIDENCE score is negative at -0.37. If we weigh each ESTIMATE by the CONFIDENCE, then the weighted estimate is 99.

Table 1

Compared to Week 1, UPA median has gone down to 99 from 105 and the consensus across judges has increased (SD declined to 16 from 20). The median confidence at 75 is also higher than that for week 1 where it was 68. Jingos seem a lot more confident about UPA non-performance than NDA over-performance.

Code: Select all

         JINGO      UPA85 UPA105 UPA115 UPA125 UPA135 UPA145 UPA165    ESTIMATE    CONFIDENCE
         
     chaanakya      100      0      0      0      0      0      0          85           100
    kapilrdave      100      0      0      0      0      0      0          85           100
 panduranghari       95      5      0      0      0      0      0          86            96
         RamaY       70     20     10      0      0      0      0          92            80
         Patni       70     25      5      0      0      0      0          92            82
          SaiK       75     10      5      4      3      2      1          94            73
      rvishwak       50     50      0      0      0      0      0          95            83
     Chaanakya       40     60      0      0      0      0      0          97            84
          saip       50     30     15      5      0      0      0          98            64
        krisna       60     10     10     10      5      5      0         100            56
         Denis       30     60     10      0      0      0      0         100            76
         klaus       40     20     20     20      0      0      0         103            54
         disha       20     30     50      0      0      0      0         106            70
         Saral        5     35     35     15     10      0      0         114            49
    HariSeldon        0     10     60     30      0      0      0         118            76
       matrimc        5      5     10     30     30     10     10         130            24
        Marten        0     10     10     20     30     20     10         134            26
    brihaspati        1      4     10     15     35     30      5         135            37
 


Table 2

Code: Select all

         JINGO     UPA85 UPA105 UPA115 UPA125 UPA135 UPA145 UPA165    ESTIMATE    CONFIDENCE
         
       matrimc        5      5     10     30     30     10     10         130            24
        Marten        0     10     10     20     30     20     10         134            26
    brihaspati        1      4     10     15     35     30      5         135            37
         Saral        5     35     35     15     10      0      0         114            49
         klaus       40     20     20     20      0      0      0         103            54
        krisna       60     10     10     10      5      5      0         100            56
          saip       50     30     15      5      0      0      0          98            64
         disha       20     30     50      0      0      0      0         106            70
          SaiK       75     10      5      4      3      2      1          94            73
         Denis       30     60     10      0      0      0      0         100            76
    HariSeldon        0     10     60     30      0      0      0         118            76
         RamaY       70     20     10      0      0      0      0          92            80
         Patni       70     25      5      0      0      0      0          92            82
      rvishwak       50     50      0      0      0      0      0          95            83
     Chaanakya       40     60      0      0      0      0      0          97            84
 panduranghari       95      5      0      0      0      0      0          86            96
     chaanakya      100      0      0      0      0      0      0          85           100
    kapilrdave      100      0      0      0      0      0      0          85           100         
   

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby Denis » 18 Apr 2014 15:22

3rd week : 30 65 05 0 0 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby RamaY » 18 Apr 2014 21:03

RamaY week 3

70 0 0 30 0 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby chaanakya » 18 Apr 2014 21:47

Chaanakya 70 30 0 0 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby panduranghari » 19 Apr 2014 01:49

0 80 20 0 0 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby devesh » 19 Apr 2014 02:24

devesh 25 25 25 25 0 0 0


Revision: didn't realize this was for entire UPA coalition, and not just INC.

devesh 0 0 5 25 30 25 15
Last edited by devesh on 19 Apr 2014 20:35, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby brihaspati » 19 Apr 2014 08:28

B: 0 0 0 10 40 40 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby johneeG » 19 Apr 2014 08:53

I think there is no UPA. UPA was a post-poll alliance and many of its constituents have changed. There is no such thing as UPA, in my opinion. It depends on the seat tally of congress. I think congress will get 40-60 seats which means BJP can get around 270 on its own. Then, all opposition(including left and congress) will unite.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby KLP Dubey » 20 Apr 2014 04:14

20 30 40 10 0 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby Saral » 20 Apr 2014 22:36

Saral 15 35 35 15 0 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby Patni » 20 Apr 2014 22:46

week 3
Patni 65 25 10 0 0 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby brihaspati » 20 Apr 2014 23:34

0 0 40 40 10 10

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby Klaus » 21 Apr 2014 09:20

GJP, Week 3, UPA

klaus 0 20 20 20 30 10 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby KLP Dubey » 21 Apr 2014 10:05

20 30 50 0 0 0 0

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby jamwal » 23 Apr 2014 14:37

Week 3, UPA
jamwal 0 0 5 40 25 15 15

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby ramana » 23 Apr 2014 23:35

Marten . We are still in 3 week. Wait till Friday.

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby ramana » 25 Apr 2014 02:04

Saral, Its 5:00pm EST. Please use data from posts above this.

Thanks,

ramana

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby Saral » 25 Apr 2014 04:07

Week 3 UPA

Table 1 is sorted in order of mean estimates (ESTIMATE) from each of the 12 distributions (rows). I use the center of each range as the weighting factor for each frequency (so 105.5 for the range 101 to 110). I used 85 and 165 as weights for the end ranges.

Table 2 is sorted by CONFIDENCE inferred from each distribution. A perfectly uniform distribution indicates zero confidence (extreme hedging). At the other extreme, a confidence of 100 is assigned to people who put everything in 1 bin (zero hedging). Calculation: Each column in a row has an entropy term -p*log(p). Sum these up for each row and take the exponential of the entropy (sum of terms within row). Subtract from 7, divide by 6, and multiply by 100 to map the score to the range 0 to 100.

ESTIMATE has mean=113, median=109, and SD=17. CONFIDENCE has mean=63, median=66, and SD=21. The correlation between deviation of ESTIMATE from the mean (of 113) and the CONFIDENCE score is negative at -0.23. If we weigh each ESTIMATE by the CONFIDENCE, then the weighted estimate is 109.

Table 1

Compared to Week 2, UPA median has gone up to 109 from 99 and the consensus across judges has remained the same (SD is 17 vs. 16 in week 2). The median confidence at 66 is lower than 75 for week 2, but is higher than NDA estimates. Jingos seem more confident about UPA non-performance than NDA over-performance. Participation rate for UPA is dropping, from 18 folks in week 2 to 12 folks in week 3.

Code: Select all

         JINGO      UPA85 UPA105 UPA115 UPA125 UPA135 UPA145 UPA165    ESTIMATE    CONFIDENCE

     chaanakya       70     30      0      0      0      0      0          91            86
         Patni       65     25     10      0      0      0      0          93            77
         RamaY       70      0      0     30      0      0      0          97            86
         Denis       30     65      5      0      0      0      0         100            80
      KLPDubey       20     30     50      0      0      0      0         106            70
 panduranghari        0     80     20      0      0      0      0         108            89
         Saral       15     35     35     15      0      0      0         109            55
         klaus        0     20     20     20     30     10      0         124            38
    brihaspati        0      0     40     40     10     10      0         124            62
        Marten        0     10     10     20     20     30     10         134            26
        jamwal        0      0      5     40     25     15     15         136            47
        devesh        0      0      5     25     30     25     15         139            43
 


Table 2

Code: Select all

         JINGO     UPA85 UPA105 UPA115 UPA125 UPA135 UPA145 UPA165    ESTIMATE    CONFIDENCE

        Marten        0     10     10     20     20     30     10         134            26
         klaus        0     20     20     20     30     10      0         124            38
        devesh        0      0      5     25     30     25     15         139            43
        jamwal        0      0      5     40     25     15     15         136            47
         Saral       15     35     35     15      0      0      0         109            55
    brihaspati        0      0     40     40     10     10      0         124            62
      KLPDubey       20     30     50      0      0      0      0         106            70
         Patni       65     25     10      0      0      0      0          93            77
         Denis       30     65      5      0      0      0      0         100            80
     chaanakya       70     30      0      0      0      0      0          91            86
         RamaY       70      0      0     30      0      0      0          97            86
 panduranghari        0     80     20      0      0      0      0         108            89
   

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Re: BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Postby RamaY » 25 Apr 2014 19:21

Week 4: 50 0 0 50 0 0 0

Revelation 425:
The Anti-Modi mafia has only two political centers - Congress & 3rd-Front.
If it comes to grouping under one safe & well-funded umbrella the termites will prefer Congress and not some Turd-fronts.
It is also easy to manage EVMs/Voters list in this direction.
Keep the opposition united. It also helps Congress to survive and no one cares about Turd-front regional parties.


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