Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby IndraD » 13 May 2014 02:58

I am afraid EVM magic may lead to instability in coutry

interesting
6. 2009 के मुकाबले इस बार बीजेपी को मिले एससी-एसटी के वोटों को प्रतिशत दोगुना हो गया है.
BJP's SC/ST vote share twice of 2009

7. बीजेपी को मिले एससी-एसटी के वोट कांग्रेस से ज्यादा है.
BJP ges more dalit vote than Con

8. मुस्लिमों के लिए बीजेपी अब अछूत नहीं है.
Muslims do not consider BJP untouchable

9. बीजेपी को मिलने वाले मुस्लिम वोटों में इस बार 6 प्रतिशत का इजाफा हुआ है.
6% vote gain from muslims

10. कांग्रेस को मिले मुस्लिम वोटों का प्रतिशत 2009 के बराबर ही है.
con's muslims vote share same as 2009

11. बीजेपी को छोड़कर सभी पार्टियों को मुस्लिम वोटों का नुकसान हुआ है.
Every party other than BJP suffered on Muslim votes

12. बीजेपी को मिलने वाले महिला वोटों में जबरदस्त इजाफा हुआ है. यह 18 प्रतिशत (2009) से बढ़कर 32 प्रतिशत (2014) हो गया है.
Naari Shakti rooting for BJP, 32% vote share

13. युवाओं ने भी बीजेपी को वोट किया है. बीजेपी को वोट शेयर इस बार डबल हो गया है. यह 17 प्रतिशत से बढ़कर 35 प्रतिशत पहुंच गया.
Youth vote for BJP, share 35%

14. दूसरी पार्टियों को युवाओं ने नकारा है. इसमें बीजेपी के सहयोगी दल भी शामिल है.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby amdavadi » 13 May 2014 03:03

Well It is going to be anandiben patel for CM of Guj after 16th.....

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby IndraD » 13 May 2014 03:04

Is she same lady who was education minister in 2002?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby IndraD » 13 May 2014 03:06

deleted
Last edited by IndraD on 13 May 2014 03:12, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Suraj » 13 May 2014 03:06

Moderator Note
Thread derailment with constant EVM magic conspiracy theory mongering will lead to this thread being locked. Everyone's anxiously waiting for the actual results. That's not an excuse for people to worsen moderator workload with unsubstantiated loose talk. Please keep this thread focused on the actual topic.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Gus » 13 May 2014 03:07

from thanthi, live

1. vaiko should definitely win sivakasi for mdmk
2. anbumani should win by a low margin at dharmapuri for pmk
3. c.p.radhakrishnan of bjp is leading barely in coimbatore. modi campaigning there seems to have pushed him up.
4. dhayanithi maran ahead in central chennai. poor turnout could mean that dmk base would have higher share among actual votes.
5. kanyakumari - pnr.radha definite win.
6. pondy - should be NDA

overall 4 in the bag for NDA. if cbe falls, then 5. Which is a VERY GOOD showing by BJP.

not only that, by putting the coalition that comes 2 or 3 in most places, they have thwarted dmk, congress and left of many seats.

jj is more amenable to bjp than con party. so overall, this is good for NDA.

congress biggies not even getting second place, may go to third and fourth. will prolly be the most embarrassing showing in all of nation.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby amdavadi » 13 May 2014 03:09

AS will be part of PMO or task with growing BJP in UP.....AS wants Mullah mulayam & son out of power.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ashish raval » 13 May 2014 03:11

amdavadi wrote:Well It is going to be anandiben patel for CM of Guj after 16th.....


Not a fan of hers. At best keshubhai Patel's calibre. Like saurabh dalal. He was brain behind making Gujarat electricity surplus and also electrification of all of Gujarat and all solar projects.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Mort Walker » 13 May 2014 03:13

fanne wrote:Btw guys, not to loose focus, this is exit poll, not the actual result. I still shiver due to EVM Magic.


More like vote fraud which the EVM will confirm.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby amdavadi » 13 May 2014 03:17

IndraD wrote:Is she same lady who was education minister in 2002?


Yup same lady who was education minister ....She is NaMo lite........Guj will be in safe hand

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby amdavadi » 13 May 2014 03:20

He will be CM in the future but right now it is going to be ananiben patel...If saurabh dalal becomes CM of guj...Every damn media house will do a story
on how reliance & mota bhai(MA) is running gujarat.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby IndraD » 13 May 2014 03:55

many modi baiters are openly calling for dismissing elections and results if Modi becomes PM-on FB & Twitter

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SwamyG » 13 May 2014 03:58

muraliravi wrote:He should not be in jail. Let him express him opinion. No one should go to jail for expressing their opinion of any sorts on Twitter/FB or even in public unless they create a law and order situation. Actually Namo should strive for an India with full freedom of speech just like the US.

If you are going to bring in USA, then USA has strong laws and implementation on hate speech and threat of violence. This Moron has been saying dangerous things for a long time. It is not freedom of speech.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Yagnasri » 13 May 2014 04:45

One of UP leaders son I have spoken yesterday says Chanikyan poll may even come true. What he is seeing is the Hindu v/s Muslim voting in UP and Bihar and NM is being chanted in remote villages of UP and BJP winning in places which no one predicting it will win. While he is a Jat and now seriously prejudiced, he was a month back critical of BJP candidate selection and was angry that BJP may lose few seats because of it. Now he is saying that no one has given a S**t about the candidate and just voted of NM enmass. He has not seen this kind of voting in UP and Bihar even during RJB days.

BJP likely to get Majority with NDA partners this time.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ShyamSP » 13 May 2014 05:00

Narayana Rao wrote:One of UP leaders son I have spoken yesterday says Chanikyan poll may even come true. What he is seeing is the Hindu v/s Muslim voting in UP and Bihar and NM is being chanted in remote villages of UP and BJP winning in places which no one predicting it will win. While he is a Jat and now seriously prejudiced, he was a month back critical of BJP candidate selection and was angry that BJP may lose few seats because of it. Now he is saying that no one has given a S**t about the candidate and just voted of NM enmass. He has not seen this kind of voting in UP and Bihar even during RJB days.

BJP likely to get Majority with NDA partners this time.


Tathastu. BTW Nellore is going to TDP+BJP if Municipal voting continued to general elections.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Suraj » 13 May 2014 05:08

Another pointer to why exit polls may not fully reflect the potential for a winner to win more comprehensively than what estimates suggest is a combination of two factors:

1. Historical high turnout
The 2014 Lok Sabha polls saw 66.38% of the 827-million-strong Indian electorate exercising their franchise, helping the country set an all-time voter turnout record.

The polling percentage in the world's biggest democratic exercise comfortably surpassed the 1984 turnout of 64% when Rajiv Gandhi became the prime minister after the assassination of Indira Gandhi.

It takes quite a bit of political and emotional mobilization to outdo a historically high turnout wave election by more than 2% in turnout. Turnout varies by several percent across 'typical' elections, but one you approach extremes, it's far harder to outdo a record by a substantial margin.

2. The 18-35 voting bloc is 48% of electorate
A large number of them are first time voters due to the excitement of these elections. In terms of actual voters, they may exceed 50% . They are more keen on their immediate socio-economic progress than in any historical voting pattern.

The combination of record high turnout + majority youngster/firsttime electorate is a new political landscape in India. These may be factors driving Chanakya's upper bound estimates. It will take another 3 days to tell if they're correctly predicting a wave, or if they're being too optimistic.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Yagnasri » 13 May 2014 05:18

I am told Jagan is winning Nellore seats including MLA seat.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby KJo » 13 May 2014 05:30

I hope Modiji starts off by announcing 5 things he will focus on, and how he is to be measured. And in each year, how much progress he hopes to make. This way he will gain credibility and be able to get re-elected.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Ashok Sarraff » 13 May 2014 05:33

I am intrigued by his 100 new cities promise. How and where will he build them will be interesting to watch. Has he elaborates on this idea much?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby KLP Dubey » 13 May 2014 05:47

Suraj wrote:Moderator Note
Thread derailment with constant EVM magic conspiracy theory mongering will lead to this thread being locked. Everyone's anxiously waiting for the actual results. That's not an excuse for people to worsen moderator workload with unsubstantiated loose talk. Please keep this thread focused on the actual topic.


Thanks, I fully agree. These EVM magic theories are getting old now.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Prem » 13 May 2014 05:58

India TV Exit Polls: Who will become next PM? Part 6 .
AS at 12.01
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bc4Qcso80ZU

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 13 May 2014 06:00

Ashok Sarraff wrote:I am intrigued by his 100 new cities promise. How and where will he build them will be interesting to watch. Has he elaborates on this idea much?


kyun bhai, wanna buy land now itself? Me too...

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby subhamoy.das » 13 May 2014 06:19

It is only 1 magic - a mass dabang leader. Thats all. BJP did not have one in 2004 and niether in 2009. And all this talk about how this is a Modi sarkar and not a BJP sarkar. Nonsense. It has always been a Indira sarkar, a Rajeev sarkar and a ABVP sarkar and a MAMTA sarkar and a Nitish sarkar ..... The party/dynasty is as tall as its tallest leader. So in future, if Dynasty can give birth to a dabang mass leader, well, he/she can sure run the country but it will not be called a Gandhi sarker!

Abki bar Modi Sarkar.....
Ache din ane wale hain...

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Yagnasri » 13 May 2014 06:27

For the 340 being a crazy idea, just one question? what happence if there is a great mobilisation of Hindu votes in any any elections in favour of one party? Just like rajiv after 1984. He had Muslim votes also at that time with no serious opposition. Now if there is a solid Hindu mobilisation in favour of BJP now, will it not be possible for NDA to cross 300? With all the new young voters voting for BJP enmass or in huge numbers? What will happen NM gets these votes in significant numbers every where from TN to NE. By all the reports he is getting these votes in huge numbers. Who can stop him with such support?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 13 May 2014 06:36

Hari Seldon wrote:
Ashok Sarraff wrote:I am intrigued by his 100 new cities promise. How and where will he build them will be interesting to watch. Has he elaborates on this idea much?


kyun bhai, wanna buy land now itself? Me too...

golden quadrilateral is the map. now tell where you want to buy? :twisted:

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby KLP Dubey » 13 May 2014 06:40

Narayana Rao wrote:For the 340 being a crazy idea, just one question? what happence if there is a great mobilisation of Hindu votes in any any elections in favour of one party? Just like rajiv after 1984. He had Muslim votes also at that time with no serious opposition. Now if there is a solid Hindu mobilisation in favour of BJP now, will it not be possible for NDA to cross 300? With all the new young voters voting for BJP enmass or in huge numbers? What will happen NM gets these votes in significant numbers every where from TN to NE. By all the reports he is getting these votes in huge numbers. Who can stop him with such support?


NDA has likely crossed 300. The exit polls are unanimous that NaMo will form the goremint. Let us see the exact tally on May 16.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby KJo » 13 May 2014 07:13

Modi's fate, and ours (as Indians), sealed in the EVMs.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SwamyG » 13 May 2014 07:18

Still very nervous, like Jaggi points out in First Post; May 16th could hold surprises. More over if the exit polls get it wrong, BJP would be in a tough spot, especially if UP and Bihar go down. Again, like Jaggi points out, these agencies have come to the total NDA numbers with different state figures, so it is likely that State swings are possible when the results are announced. If UP gets less than 40 and Bihar less than 15, then BJP though might be the largest party will be at the mercy of other parties.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Dasari » 13 May 2014 07:28

These exit polls have been a case of hit and miss for lack of sanctity in the sample. Look at Chanakya's sample size. It is a total of 38584 voters across India. For a presidential elections where the aggregate votes are taken ( at least within a state), a random sample across the state, roughly equal to 1500 voters (= 38584 /25) per state is sufficient. But in a parliamentary elections, the 38584 number translates to 75 ( = 38584/ 543) voters per constituency. The constituencies are not homogeneous where each constituency is different from other in terms of the candidate, the caste, the money, and the religion etc. In that sense a sample size of 75 voters representing the collective behavior of more than 12 lakh voters is statistically not sufficient ( or gives huge margin of error).

This is a very fundamental sampling issue and with so much history of polling from the likes of Gallup, I'm surprised that Indian pollers didn't catch up with the most advanced sampling techniques. Even assuming my observation about the sample size is not accurate, there is another issue that the pollers in India grapple with.

In a country like india with different languages and varying degree of accessibility, the last mile logistics of collecting the voters input is outsourced, and there is lot of cheating and dishonesty in these sources. For example there is a rumor in AP, that whenever YSRCP leader Jagan comes to know of these 3rd party contractors conducting interviews on behalf of national pollsters, he buys them off. Effectively, the sample is neither random nor big enough. As a result, at best they may catch the overall direction of the voters mood but cannot predict with any certainty the constituency by constituency result. Perhaps this is the reason why the local pollers (localized to the state) offer better predictions of their state than any national pollers. The best example I've is Lagadapati from AP where his company conducts surveys within AP with remarkable accuracy.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby vina » 13 May 2014 07:29

Gus wrote:2. anbumani should win by a low margin at dharmapuri for pmk

That would be sad. If any jokers deserved to be wiped out , it would be the absolutely casteist and medieval PMK. I hope he loses. What happens in Dharmapuri belt against the Dalits is unconscionable and it is sad that electoral arithmetic on caste calculations gives formations like the PMK an opening.

Gus wrote:4. dhayanithi maran ahead in central chennai. poor turnout could mean that dmk base would have higher share among actual votes.

Yes. This was expected. There was chatter that Dayanidhi Maran was going to win in Chennai central.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anand K » 13 May 2014 07:33

Dasari wrote:These exit polls have been a case of hit and miss for lack of sanctity in the sample. Look at Chanakya's sample size. It is a total of 38584 voters across India. For a presidential elections where the aggregate votes are taken ( at least within a state), a random sample across the state, roughly equal to 1500 voters (= 38584 /25) per state is sufficient. But in a parliamentary elections, the 38584 number translates to 75 ( = 38584/ 543) voters per constituency. The constituencies are not homogeneous where each constituency is different from other in terms of the candidate, the caste, the money, and the religion etc. In that sense a sample size of 75 voters representing the collective behavior of more than 12 lakh voters is statistically not sufficient ( or gives huge margin of error).

This is a very fundamental sampling issue and with so much history of polling from the likes of Gallup, I'm surprised that Indian pollers didn't catch up with the most advanced sampling techniques. Even assuming my observation about the sample size is not accurate, there is another issue that the pollers in India grapple with.

In a country like india with different languages and varying degree of accessibility, the last mile logistics of collecting the voters input is outsourced, and there is lot of cheating and dishonesty in these sources. For example there is a rumor in AP, that whenever YSRCP leader Jagan comes to know of these 3rd party contractors conducting interviews on behalf of national pollsters, he buys them off. Effectively, the sample is neither random nor big enough. As a result, at best they may catch the overall direction of the voters mood but cannot predict with any certainty the constituency by constituency result. Perhaps this is the reason why the local pollers (localized to the state) offer better predictions of their state than any national pollers. The best example I've is Lagadapati from AP where his company conducts surveys within AP with remarkable accuracy.


Word.
I had posted a few doubts on the opinion poll thing in India, from the Contract (between NDTV and Hansa for instance) and Market Research point of view.

Wish I could know more.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Dilbu » 13 May 2014 07:34

NaMo will lose onlee. :(( :(( :((

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby vina » 13 May 2014 07:42

Narayana Rao wrote: What he is seeing is the Hindu v/s Muslim voting in UP and Bihar and NM is being chanted in remote villages of UP and BJP winning in places which no one predicting it will win. .

That is a sad dynamic if it was true. While I do agree that the UPA dispensation must be thrown out of office, I am disquieted with this kind of dynamic. Let Modi win on the basis of governance and programs and positive appeal. I was enthused when his campaign focused entirely on that.

The SP others would definitely try to make it into a Hindu vs Muslim election. Shamefully the Congress too tried to make it into a "cry wolf" election by turning it into a secularism under threat rubbish. The BJP with the momentum it had could have risen above that this time, and which I think it largely did .

But somehow at the ground level, if the attempt to scare the muslims to vote en bloc on an anti BJP platform for Congress /SP saw a reaction of the Hindus consolidating on the other side, it is a sad day overall for India.

Whatever said and done, the AAP have put up a creditable show, especially if they manage to win 3 seats in Punjab as the polls predict. . They remain relevant and will need to go from strength to strength. The Congress is in decline. We need the AAP. The AAP needs to build a strong grass roots organization to convert votes into seats. Kejriwal's task is cut out now.

Congress needs radical surgery . I do hope Rahul baba and other old coots with socialism, command and control fetish now realize that the primary reason the Congress lost is that India has changed. The Indian of today is not enamored with the Congress style dole and welfare politics. Promises of a PDS system where a Rs 10 item is sold at Rs 5 is not going to cut ice. This is an asiprational India now which wants strong growth, upward mobility and the right to script it's own path and not be under the thumb of some welfare dole out and the associated Baboo giri. They want jobs where they can go and pay full price at wherever they want and live with dignity.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby BijuShet » 13 May 2014 07:45

vina wrote:
Gus wrote:2. anbumani should win by a low margin at dharmapuri for pmk

That would be sad. If any jokers deserved to be wiped out , it would be the absolutely casteist and medieval PMK. I hope he loses. What happens in Dharmapuri belt against the Dalits is unconscionable and it is sad that electoral arithmetic on caste calculations gives formations like the PMK an opening.

Gus wrote:4. dhayanithi maran ahead in central chennai. poor turnout could mean that dmk base would have higher share among actual votes.

Yes. This was expected. There was chatter that Dayanidhi Maran was going to win in Chennai central.

A bit rich for UPA I & UPA II lungi dancer to be talking about caste equations of NDA allies. You seem to have forgotten about mullah mulayam, Owais et all

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby RamaY » 13 May 2014 07:49

Ashok Sarraff wrote:I am intrigued by his 100 new cities promise. How and where will he build them will be interesting to watch. Has he elaborates on this idea much?

Hari Seldon wrote:kyun bhai, wanna buy land now itself? Me too...

SaiK wrote:golden quadrilateral is the map. now tell where you want to buy? :twisted:


Even if Modi achieves 50% of what he promissed every Indian will reap great profits.
Do not forget that this country increased Britain's GDP from 3% to 25% of world GDP in <90 yrs.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby BijuShet » 13 May 2014 07:55

Vinaji stop this secularism natak. This con game of secularism is more important than development is how elite Indians like yourself cost India and Indians a lost decade of development.
The rural poor are now well aware of how elites in India game the system to keep themselves at the top and deny their poorer counterparts an opportunity to grow. You may lament your vote in the last general election but please stop acting innocent and pretending that you are not a hand party supporter.
Chaddiwallas have long memories.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Yagnasri » 13 May 2014 07:55

We need PAAP???? Vinaji I have not seen your postings for some time but with such statements you seems to be in great form now. We need PAAP??? Traitors who on CIA pay and trying to do a "color revolution" for their gora pay masters? Come on.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby sivab » 13 May 2014 08:03

GAURAV C SAWANT @gauravcsawant · 15h

Confident of Ghaziabad victory &BJP+ crossing 272 @Gen_VKSingh tells me on. @ElectionExpress economy 1st priority, then national defence

GAURAV C SAWANT @gauravcsawant · 15h

Govt's intentions not honourable in pushing Gen Suhag's name as next COAS: @Gen_VKSingh on @ElectionExpress

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby vina » 13 May 2014 08:04

BijuShet wrote:A bit rich for UPA I & UPA II lungi dancer to be talking about caste equations of NDA allies. You seem to have forgotten about mullah mulayam, Owais et all

How so, I did rail against the medieval and casteist PMK even when it was in UPA ! I slammed Anbumani when he wrecked the AIIMS with his casteist agenda. I hope he is firmly kept in the doghouse and pray that the BJP alone has enough seats to allow it not to dole out any position of influence to jokers like PMK.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby vina » 13 May 2014 08:10

Narayana Rao wrote:We need PAAP???? Vinaji I have not seen your postings for some time but with such statements you seems to be in great form now. We need PAAP??? Traitors who on CIA pay and trying to do a "color revolution" for their gora pay masters? Come on.

Whatever said and done, the AAP IS a clean party with a transformational agenda. They make all the right noises in terms of devolution of power and accountability and corruption. Politics is always about balance. If the BJP is right of centre (context matters, it is India after all, the BJP is actually LEFT of the Democrats who would be a radical right wing party in India), you need someone to the left of center. The Congress is on it's knees and there is space for an alternative there to vaccum up the jokers who would otherwise graduate to the Lalus and Mulayams and Owaisis and other sectarian formations into a bigger more positive umbrella.

I do hope that the AAP forms a good alternative to those and gets in the non BJP votes into a that agenda.


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