Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Rahul Mehta
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Rahul Mehta » 13 May 2014 19:25

The polls assume that they have chosen the sample scientifically and so the sample represents the universe. One say, the sample selection will be so perfect that by choosing just 1 person in uber-scientific way, we will be able to predict the outcome of election so accurately that elections wont be needed at all !!!

====

Why exit polls in India go wrong? Because large stock market manipulators want it so

Across West, Japan etc, the exit polls get % votes accurately. And also get seat count accurately, except when margins are razon thin. In India, exit polls , forget opinion polls, have been terribly wrong in 2004 and 2009. The reason is big stock market players in 2004 and 2009 paid the paid-media to over-report BJP's seat to fool the small investors, and thus made a killing.

This is how it works

1. The small investors think that if BJP gets more seats then stock market will rise. So if right or wrong opinion polls are planted, that BJP will get more seats, some 2-4 days before counting, then small investors rush in

2. Thats when when big investors sell stocks

3. If BJP gets less than expected seats, then stock market crashes, and thats when big investors buy back their shares

4. small investors lose in this process and big investors gain

This was done in 2004 and 2009.

This doesnt mean that THIS polls are exaggerated. Basically, I never put faith in paid exit polls and paid opinion polls. And all polls are paid-polls.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby negi » 13 May 2014 19:28

"A group of people from various sections, may be from within BJP are determined not to make Modi PM, because of various reasons, least is communal ones. I will not be surprised if BJP ends up 190 and so tempts them to a shaky government. This will push India further downward further and destroy BJP's further chances in elections of 2017 or 2019. Any outcome is possible." ----Comments section Niti Central.


Echos my views.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SRoy » 13 May 2014 19:28

Added one more to foe list.
Log mantey nahi hai.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Sanku » 13 May 2014 19:31

SRoy wrote:Added one more to foe list.
Log mantey nahi hai.


I reported the post.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby anmol » 13 May 2014 19:32

Anantha wrote:talked to a Sanghi guy who will be part of counting. He says no further EVM manipulation is possible. Small EVM frauds have happened typically in rural areas. So the numbers S Swamy put 5 days ago is more accurate 260-320 where the lowest number represents higher EVM fraud.
Let me repeat, no further EVM fraud is possible.


Is this a pro-modi sanghi ? Because a very Anti-Modi Sanghi told me same thing.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby negi » 13 May 2014 19:33

Sanku wrote:
SRoy wrote:Added one more to foe list.
Log mantey nahi hai.


I reported the post.

which one ?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 13 May 2014 19:34

EVM rigging is no different from rigging or booth capturing during ballot box era. It presents all parties with equal opportunity to rig (not that I am endorsing the same). Hacking is a totally different ball game. But if evm's can be hacked, we should not even discuss election outcome.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Singha » 13 May 2014 19:34

Amit shah now coming live on timesnow...he says if NDA>45 seats the thermometer theory is out of window and any number is possible...he says 55 is possible.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby member_28025 » 13 May 2014 19:34

anmol wrote:
Anantha wrote:talked to a Sanghi guy who will be part of counting. He says no further EVM manipulation is possible. Small EVM frauds have happened typically in rural areas. So the numbers S Swamy put 5 days ago is more accurate 260-320 where the lowest number represents higher EVM fraud.
Let me repeat, no further EVM fraud is possible.


Is this a pro-modi sanghi ? Because a very Anti-Modi Sanghi told me same thing.


Are there anti-Modi Sanghis as well? What are their reasons for being so?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Sanku » 13 May 2014 19:35

negi wrote:which one ?


Above your previous one.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Rahul Mehta » 13 May 2014 19:35

Dear BJP\Namo bhagats,

I wish you PM-position. No problems with that.

But please dont curse EVMs now or even after may-16.

Election commission, some 1 year before election had called representatives of ALL parties including BJP. NaMo's own IT-experts who create fake users on twitter were present in that meeting with EC. All parties representatives including representatives of NaMo supported EVMs.'

So either EVMs are right, your leaders have no courage to oppose EVMs.

So in either case, now please stop crying against EVMs.

====

As per anti-EVM-activists like me, I dont think I will win or lose no matter whether EVMs were rigged or not. A few votes here or there makes me no difference anyway. So I have no DIRECT locus standii against EVM. as per my anti-EVM campaign that I started way back in jun-2009 on BR and outside BR as well, the biggest damage to anti-EVM-campaign was done by RSS-apex !! It was RSS-apex who ordered all district heads to stop anti-EVM campaign !!!

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby member_22733 » 13 May 2014 19:36

It aint over till its over (on May 16th).

Did anyone notice the Headlines Today program on how twitter was data mining Indian elections and how politicians in India have to "plan for" "influencing" twitter on the next big one: 2019?

The implications are scary, basically with more population of India getting exposed on twitter a lot of manipulation can be done BEFORE the election.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby negi » 13 May 2014 19:37

^ Possible ? Yes. But our gobermund and it's agencies do not have the capability to do so their data analytics abilities sck.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby panduranghari » 13 May 2014 19:38

Shamlee wrote:
Anantha wrote:Today NCP congress has offered support to NDA. It seems unconditional. So if it is 250for NDA, NCP can give 15 seats and with independents it will be 272. No chance for 4M crooks


Do you have link?

I am not too comfortable about NDA taking support from a crook and opportunist like Sharad Pawar who didn't lift a finger to help save the farmers commiting suicide. His nephew Ajit Pawar should also be kept as far as possible from NDA. Praful Patel is not a person to be trusted either, what with his role in the decline of Air India.

I would prefer to have support of Naveen Patnaik or even Jayalalitha for that matter.


If NDA does well in MH, it could very well try to do the same in assembly polls. SP, the wily fox that he is, wants to be associated for namesake with NaMo just to prevent this. I trust Munde and Phadnavis will not let this happen.

So this seems like a non starter.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 13 May 2014 19:39

anmol wrote:
Anantha wrote:talked to a Sanghi guy who will be part of counting. He says no further EVM manipulation is possible. Small EVM frauds have happened typically in rural areas. So the numbers S Swamy put 5 days ago is more accurate 260-320 where the lowest number represents higher EVM fraud.
Let me repeat, no further EVM fraud is possible.


Is this a pro-modi sanghi ? Because a very Anti-Modi Sanghi told me same thing.


ultra-pro Modi with a scholarly approach guy, a well connected guy in BJP

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 13 May 2014 19:41

my bets are that bjpmodi will get 272+

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby anmol » 13 May 2014 19:44

Sanku wrote:
chaanakya wrote:TimesNow has just discovered a very strong Anti Modi vote in Bihar. They must be smoking something very powerful.


No not Arnab, and his pollster (now CVoter :wink: ) is not either -- only Sankarshan Thakur and others are falling over themselves.

Chaanakya san, it is possible that Arnab goofed up by hiring the org -- remember, they were with CVoter, and jumped ship to these noobs only just before the election (thanks to AAPtards sick campaign)

I do believe we can give him the benifiet of doubt.


Now they are back to CVoter ? :eek:

Anantha wrote:ultra-pro Modi with a scholarly approach guy, a well connected guy in BJP


I will still be dhoti shivering, but this does calm my nerves a little. :(
Last edited by anmol on 13 May 2014 20:03, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 13 May 2014 19:44

Dorknob has changed his projection to 292 for NDA with 101 for deshdrohis. He says there were errors in rajastan, Bihar projections.
Now rNDTV is the only odd ball that has to come up with projections. looks increasingly like, there wont be any furtehr EVM damage.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Sanku » 13 May 2014 19:46

anmol wrote:Now they are back to CVoter ? :eek:


They are basically focussing on CVoter on numbers, they have buried their pollsters.

Thats a first, the news agency threw out its own hired hands. What a waste of money.
Last edited by Sanku on 13 May 2014 19:46, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby kmkraoind » 13 May 2014 19:46

Modi writes to Delhi businessman who predicted Rajiv Gandhi's win in 1984, AAP performance in Delhi

BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi has written to a Delhi businessman who had predicted around 300 seats for the NDA in the polls.

In his letter to Vijay Bansal, a resident of Rohini in west Delhi and running a construction business, Modi said he was pleased to have been apprised of the estimate made "according to your inner voice".

Modi's letter was dated March 20, and came in response to Bansal's letter sent March 3.

Bansal has a history of making poll predictions.

In his letter to Modi, Bansal wrote that "two months before the 1984 Lok Sabha elections, I wrote to Rajiv Gandhi on the basis of my inner voice and told him that he will get around 365 seats. The astrologers and opinion polls at that time were talking of 225 seats for him".

After Gandhi got over 400 seats in the polls, he sent a thank you note to Bansal and invited him for tea, according to the letter.

Accpording to Bansal, he told Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal, whom he claimed to know personally, before the results for December 2013 Delhi assembly elections were out, that he will get around 28 seats when "no opinion poll was giving the AAP more than 6 seats".

"When I told him, he started to laugh. Even he did not believe me," Bansal told IANS.

Bansal said that after AAP got 28 seats, "Kejriwal called me to the Delhi secretariat and we had tea".

Bansal gives around 292 seats to the National Democratic Alliance. He also wrote in his letter that Modi-led NDA will receive the support of "28 other MPs".

While Bansal sent his predictions to Bharatiya Janata Party president Rajnath Singh, and other senior leaders like L.K. Advani, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley and others, only Modi replied, he said.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Rahul M » 13 May 2014 19:51

GVLNR giving 303 to NDA, 89 to UPA.
http://www.lensonnews.com/lonspecial/1/ ... _Q.twitter

I guess this is the one amit shah is relying upon.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby abhijitm » 13 May 2014 19:53

muraliravi wrote:EVM rigging is no different from rigging or booth capturing during ballot box era. It presents all parties with equal opportunity to rig (not that I am endorsing the same). Hacking is a totally different ball game. But if evm's can be hacked, we should not even discuss election outcome.

I hope evm's are unhackable. During the days of paper ballots one of my friends witnessed paper votes getting replaced in full police protection. It was after the election and before counting. At least evm is better in that scenario...if secured well.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Supratik » 13 May 2014 19:56

The astrologer thing is bs. I am not aware of any astrology that can predict seats in an election.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 13 May 2014 20:11

Big loss to Milind Deora in Mumbai South. Shiv Sena Arvind Sawant is winning. This is the same place where the EJ padri was paid 10 crores and he asked people to vote for non communals and so that educated people do not mis-understand gave he Gujrat model as example of communal and poor development

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaraLax » 13 May 2014 20:12

Rahul M wrote:GVLNR giving 303 to NDA, 89 to UPA.
http://www.lensonnews.com/lonspecial/1/ ... _Q.twitter

I guess this is the one amit shah is relying upon.


I am very circumspect about GVLNR's numbers for TN. I don't know about rest of India number.
They have given 2 seats for INC in TN when even 1 appears impossible for INC in TN+Pondicherry.
They have also given 12 for NDA and i believe it is very very optimistic.

I am inclined to go with Exit Polls of local TN channels like Thanthi TV for a more realistic output. CNN-IBN's CSDS formulated TN exit poll numbers also tally with Thanthi TV's TN Exit Poll numbers.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby disha » 13 May 2014 20:12

kmkraoind wrote:Modi writes to Delhi businessman who predicted Rajiv Gandhi's win in 1984, AAP performance in Delhi

BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi has written to a Delhi businessman who had predicted around 300 seats for the NDA in the polls.

In his letter to Vijay Bansal, a resident of Rohini in west Delhi and running a construction business, Modi said he was pleased to have been apprised of the estimate made "according to your inner voice".



That guy Vijay Bansal is a genius, at least he gets invited for tea by PM and CM! I want to get invited for tea by NaMo onleee :(( :((

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 13 May 2014 20:17

My poll of poll on the exit polls. I am looking at the minimum predicted by each exit poll at a state level. I have omitted the horrible survey by ORG.

Image

So worst case, BJP should get 205 and NDA 241 which will be still a quite comfortable position for BJP. All they will need is 30 seats.

BTW, for both csds and chanakya polls, I have taken the lower bound number of their range. My goal was to see the absolute minimum prospects for BJP.
Last edited by muraliravi on 13 May 2014 20:22, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby panduranghari » 13 May 2014 20:19

Muraliravi ji what is your very optimist number?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 13 May 2014 20:20

Rahul M wrote:GVLNR giving 303 to NDA, 89 to UPA.
http://www.lensonnews.com/lonspecial/1/ ... _Q.twitter

I guess this is the one amit shah is relying upon.


Rahul Sir,

I am sure Amir Shah is not relying on a horrible pollster like GVL Rao. If I start posting all the wrong predictions by him (both prepoll and exit, it will probably take up 2 pages of this thread). I dont know who in BJP made him the in house pollster for 2009 LS. I assume he still does not hold that position.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 13 May 2014 20:21

panduranghari wrote:Muraliravi ji what is your very optimist number?


My optimist number (I will say that my numbers are heavily influenced by these exit polls) is 250 for BJP alone. But if you had asked me 2 days, I would have said my optimist number is 210.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 13 May 2014 20:22

disha wrote: :(( :((


Not that I am any big figure, but will definitely invite you for a chai (and charcha) for your efforts. Let me know your co-ordinates off-line

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby abhijitm » 13 May 2014 20:23

Anantha wrote:Big loss to Milind Deora in Mumbai South. Shiv Sena Arvind Sawant is winning. This is the same place where the EJ padri was paid 10 crores and he asked people to vote for non communals and so that educated people do not mis-understand gave he Gujrat model as example of communal and poor development

I think M Deora will win - with slim margin. Thanks to MNS eating valuable NDA votes.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 13 May 2014 20:25

abhijitm wrote:
Anantha wrote:Big loss to Milind Deora in Mumbai South. Shiv Sena Arvind Sawant is winning. This is the same place where the EJ padri was paid 10 crores and he asked people to vote for non communals and so that educated people do not mis-understand gave he Gujrat model as example of communal and poor development

I think M Deora will win - with slim margin. Thanks to MNS eating valuable NDA votes.


No the current projections are 40% SS and 35% Deora

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby abhijitm » 13 May 2014 20:31

panduranghari wrote:If NDA does well in MH, it could very well try to do the same in assembly polls. SP, the wily fox that he is, wants to be associated for namesake with NaMo just to prevent this. I trust Munde and Phadnavis will not let this happen.

So this seems like a non starter.

Maharashtra is the next big frontier for BJP. They came so close last time. State level political dimension is different. If they cannot bring Thakray brothers together then MNS will again play the spoilsport. In that scenario plan-b could be NCP. just my guess..because in his last days Bal Thakray tried to bring NCP in NDA and I think..I think...he almost succeeded.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby RajeshA » 13 May 2014 20:38

#VipExitPoll ABPNews VIP Poll showing

Jyotiraditya Scindia losing from Guna, MP.
Kamal Nath winning from Chhindwara, MP.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby krishnan » 13 May 2014 20:41

SaraLax wrote:
Rahul M wrote:GVLNR giving 303 to NDA, 89 to UPA.
http://www.lensonnews.com/lonspecial/1/ ... _Q.twitter

I guess this is the one amit shah is relying upon.


I am very circumspect about GVLNR's numbers for TN. I don't know about rest of India number.
They have given 2 seats for INC in TN when even 1 appears impossible for INC in TN+Pondicherry.
They have also given 12 for NDA and i believe it is very very optimistic.

I am inclined to go with Exit Polls of local TN channels like Thanthi TV for a more realistic output. CNN-IBN's CSDS formulated TN exit poll numbers also tally with Thanthi TV's TN Exit Poll numbers.


INC might win a few in TN.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby krishnan » 13 May 2014 20:42

ABP News ‏@abpnewstv 29m

#VipExitPoll Nandan Nilekani (INC) could lose from Bangalore South seat. Ananth Kumar (BJP) ahead.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby BijuShet » 13 May 2014 20:45

Anantha wrote:No the current projections are 40% SS and 35% Deora

From Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbai_Sou ... nstituency)

Past 6 election results for Mumbai South
1991: Murli Deora, Indian National Congress
1996: Jayawantiben Mehta, Bharatiya Janata Party
1998: Murli Deora, Indian National Congress
1999: Jayawantiben Mehta, Bharatiya Janata Party
2004: Milind Murli Deora, Indian National Congress
2009: Milind Murli Deora, Indian National Congress

Each time BJP formed the Govt, BJP took this seat. But last time MNS candidate Bala Nandgaonkar did take more than half of non UPA votes to enable a hand party win.

Code: Select all

Party   Candidate   Votes   %   ±%
INC   Milind Deora    2,72,411   42.48   
MNS   Bala Nandgaonkar   1,59,729   24.91   
Shiv Sena   Mohan Rawale   1,46,118   22.78   
BSP   Mohammad Ali Shaikh   33,799   5.27   
Independent   Meera Sanyal   10,157   1.58   
Majority   1,12,682      
Turnout   6,41,171      

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Aditya_V » 13 May 2014 20:47

Rahul Mehta wrote:The polls assume that they have chosen the sample scientifically and so the sample represents the universe. One say, the sample selection will be so perfect that by choosing just 1 person in uber-scientific way, we will be able to predict the outcome of election so accurately that elections wont be needed at all !!!

====

Why exit polls in India go wrong? Because large stock market manipulators want it so

Across West, Japan etc, the exit polls get % votes accurately. And also get seat count accurately, except when margins are razon thin. In India, exit polls , forget opinion polls, have been terribly wrong in 2004 and 2009. The reason is big stock market players in 2004 and 2009 paid the paid-media to over-report BJP's seat to fool the small investors, and thus made a killing.

This is how it works

1. The small investors think that if BJP gets more seats then stock market will rise. So if right or wrong opinion polls are planted, that BJP will get more seats, some 2-4 days before counting, then small investors rush in

2. Thats when when big investors sell stocks

3. If BJP gets less than expected seats, then stock market crashes, and thats when big investors buy back their shares

4. small investors lose in this process and big investors gain

This was done in 2004 and 2009.

This doesnt mean that THIS polls are exaggerated. Basically, I never put faith in paid exit polls and paid opinion polls. And all polls are paid-polls.


Except- Stock market jumped after INC winning the elections in 2009 was announced. BJP was nowhere in 2009, it was whether left will control UPA

However, no way stock market can justify these levels and will crash anyway post elections

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Yagnasri » 13 May 2014 20:48

Anantha wrote:Big loss to Milind Deora in Mumbai South. Shiv Sena Arvind Sawant is winning. This is the same place where the EJ padri was paid 10 crores and he asked people to vote for non communal and so that educated people do not mis-understand gave he Gujrat model as example of communal and poor development


I live in this constituency and tried my level to find a single person who voted to congress. Not secular peaceful people of course. Theya re with mafia. Middle class floks. Not one person voted for him. They do not know who contested for Shiva Sena. But they simply voted for it because it is BJP allies. Even serious south people who normally would have thought twice before voting for SS voted to it because of BJP and NM.


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