Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Yagnasri
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Yagnasri » 13 May 2014 20:50

How is Nandan faring? Is Infi having a chance to become MMS2.0 for mafia?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 13 May 2014 20:53

BijuShet wrote:
Anantha wrote:No the current projections are 40% SS and 35% Deora

From Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbai_Sou ... nstituency)

Past 6 election results for Mumbai South
1991: Murli Deora, Indian National Congress
1996: Jayawantiben Mehta, Bharatiya Janata Party
1998: Murli Deora, Indian National Congress
1999: Jayawantiben Mehta, Bharatiya Janata Party
2004: Milind Murli Deora, Indian National Congress
2009: Milind Murli Deora, Indian National Congress

Each time BJP formed the Govt, BJP took this seat. But last time MNS candidate Bala Nandgaonkar did take more than half of non UPA votes to enable a hand party win.

Code: Select all

Party   Candidate   Votes   %   ±%
INC   Milind Deora    2,72,411   42.48   
MNS   Bala Nandgaonkar   1,59,729   24.91   
Shiv Sena   Mohan Rawale   1,46,118   22.78   
BSP   Mohammad Ali Shaikh   33,799   5.27   
Independent   Meera Sanyal   10,157   1.58   
Majority   1,12,682      
Turnout   6,41,171      


Good analysis, except we have a Modi wave now. MNS guy is getting 8% of the votes this time. SS has already countered this mischief as people have become aware of this. Let us wait for 16th. Any way I will take Milind deora over the sAAP candidate. Pre election this seat was a key target of the sAAPs

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby fanne » 13 May 2014 20:54

Murali, check your minimum of 205 corresponds to minimum of 204 of 543!!

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 13 May 2014 20:54

Narayana Rao wrote:How is Nandan faring? Is Infi having a chance to become MMS2.0 for mafia?

Nandan is losing in Bangalore by about 6% less votes polled, no links

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby RamaY » 13 May 2014 20:54

If exit polls are any indication, BJP need to work on following states to get into power in states.

South: TN & AP/TG
East: OD, WB, AS, BH
West: MA
North: HA, JK, HP

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Victor » 13 May 2014 20:55

Narayana Rao wrote:How is Nandan faring? Is Infi having a chance to become MMS2.0 for mafia?

Losing per last post in previous page.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 13 May 2014 20:56

Narayana Rao wrote: I live in this constituency and tried my level to find a single person who voted to congress. Not secular peaceful people of course. Theya re with mafia. Middle class floks. Not one person voted for him. They do not know who contested for Shiva Sena. But they simply voted for it because it is BJP allies. Even serious south people who normally would have thought twice before voting for SS voted to it because of BJP and NM.

I have similar info from South Mumbai. Shiv Sena is winning comfortably. That EJ padri needs cow dung on his face

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaraLax » 13 May 2014 21:20

krishnan wrote:
SaraLax wrote:
I am very circumspect about GVLNR's numbers for TN. I don't know about rest of India number.
They have given 2 seats for INC in TN when even 1 appears impossible for INC in TN+Pondicherry.
They have also given 12 for NDA and i believe it is very very optimistic.

I am inclined to go with Exit Polls of local TN channels like Thanthi TV for a more realistic output. CNN-IBN's CSDS formulated TN exit poll numbers also tally with Thanthi TV's TN Exit Poll numbers.


INC might win a few in TN.


Which constituencies do you feel INC even has a chance ?.
- They are coming 4th in Kanyakumari ... the seat with most probable winning chance for INC in TN. Apparently Hindu Nadar vote consolidated towards Hindu Nadar candidate of BJP as against the Hindu Nadar candidate of INC (& richest candidate in TN) .
- As per Thanthi TV, Union Minister Narayanasamy is losing in Pondicherry too.
I don't know where else INC has good winning chances in TN than these two seats which they always win or enable their combine to win ...since a long time in the past.
Last edited by SaraLax on 13 May 2014 21:29, edited 1 time in total.

chaanakya
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby chaanakya » 13 May 2014 21:24

Its T-2 days to Launch and counting. Papu will achieve escape velocity..

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Dilbu » 13 May 2014 21:30

NaMo will lose onlee. :(( :(( :((

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Singha » 13 May 2014 21:31

We must thank nilekani for his huge economic stimulus spending pkg for south blr.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby vic » 13 May 2014 21:33

Can somebody analyze the party positions in Rajya Sabha?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby abhik » 13 May 2014 21:34

chaanakya wrote:Its T-2 days to Launch and counting. Papu will achieve escape velocity..

More precisely 57 hours and 48 minutes left.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ramana » 13 May 2014 21:48

Victor wrote:Some guy on TV don't remember which channel pointed out that the previous exit polls were wrong but while they overestimated the also-rans, they mostly underestimated the front runner's lead.



Our own Muppalla made this observation and is on twitter also. So some aelrt folks might have read it.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby ramana » 13 May 2014 21:53

SRoy wrote:I think arnab and co. outsourced to some noobs in the business (which coincidentally has the acronym ORG in the name) that have messed up.
So, since last evening all he is doing is revising his numbers to look credible. but damage is done, he's looking like a village bumpkin now.



I think this is fraud using a bogus similar sounding poll company to bolster Congress bargaining power before the real results are known.
Arnab and TimesNow have been Congress A team.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby abhik » 13 May 2014 21:53

vic wrote:Can somebody analyze the party positions in Rajya Sabha?

as per the official Rajya Sabha site(I think) as on May 13, 2014
Party Seats
Indian National Congress (INC ) 68
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP ) 46
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP ) 14
ALL INDIA TRINAMOOL CONGRESS (AITC ) 12
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (AIADMK ) 10
Nominated (NOM. ) 10
Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M) ) 9
Independent & Others (IND. ) 9
Janta Dal (United) (JD(U) ) 9
Samajwadi Party (SP ) 9
Biju Janata Dal (BJD ) 6
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP ) 6
Telugu Desam Party (TDP ) 6
Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (DMK ) 4
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD ) 3
Shiv Sena (SS ) 3
Communist Party of India (CPI ) 2
Indian National Lok Dal (INLD ) 2
J&K National Conference (J&KNC ) 2
Bodoland People's Front (BPF ) 1
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM ) 1
Kerala Congress (M) (KC(M) ) 1
Lok Janasakti Party (LJP ) 1
Mizo National Front (MNF ) 1
Nagaland People's Front (NPF ) 1
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD ) 1
Republican Party of India (A) (RPI(A) ) 1
Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF ) 1
Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS ) 1

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Sanku » 13 May 2014 21:55

ramana wrote:
SRoy wrote:I think arnab and co. outsourced to some noobs in the business (which coincidentally has the acronym ORG in the name) that have messed up.
So, since last evening all he is doing is revising his numbers to look credible. but damage is done, he's looking like a village bumpkin now.



I think this is fraud using a bogus similar sounding poll company to bolster Congress bargaining power before the real results are known.
Arnab and TimesNow have been Congress A team.


They were with CVoter till recently, and switched due to AAP pressure and mud throwing.

Never ascribe to malice what you can to incompetency.

If they were really totally sold (partially eveyone is to survive) -- then they would not drastically revise today.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby chaanakya » 13 May 2014 21:59

I see Abhik has posted latest figure.


Alliances (after 2012 election) Party MPs

United Progressive Alliance
Seats: 82

Indian National Congress : 72
Nationalist Congress Party : 6*
National Conference : 2
Indian National Lok Dal : 1*
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha : 1*

National Democratic Alliance
Seats: 61

Bharatiya Janata Party : 47
Shiv Sena : 4
Telugu Desam Party : 4**
Shiromani Akali Dal : 3
Lok Janshakti Party : 1
Nagaland People's Front : 1
Mizo National Front : 1

Other Parties

Seats: 52

Communist Party of India (Marxist) : 11**
Janata Dal (United) :9** Need to topple Bihar to get this number to BJP
All India Trinamool Congress : 9
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam : 7***
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam : 6**
Biju Janata Dal :6
Communist Party of India: 2*
All India Forward Bloc : 1**
Asom Gana Parishad : 1

Parties supporting UPA from outside
Seats: 28

Bahujan Samaj Party : 15**
Samajwadi Party : 9*
Rashtriya Janata Dal : 2*
Bodoland People's Front : 1
Sikkim Democratic Front : 1
Nominated : 9
Independents : 9
Vacant Seats : 1

Total 245


Starred will either decrease or increase depending of the states and parties. Like RJD CPI , DMK , BSP numbers will go down. SP TMC and AIADMK will increase. On the whole UPA is comfortable in RS and can pose challenge since all other "Like minded parties" will get together to oppose BJP in crucial reforms.


Upcoming Vacancies

June 2014
Karnataka : 4

July 2014
Miz :1

Nov 2014
UP:11

Feb 2015
J&K: 4

April 2015

KL: 3

Oct 2015
Pdy:1

Nov 2015
Nominated:2

March 2016

Nominated:5


April 2016

KL:3
PJ: 5
TR:1
HP:1
AS:2
NG:1
Last edited by chaanakya on 13 May 2014 22:01, edited 1 time in total.

Anantha
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 13 May 2014 22:01

Latest
BJP misused Government machinery to win polls
should read
BJP abused Congress missionaries to win polls

SaiK
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby SaiK » 13 May 2014 22:04

the best way to conduct exit poll is asking people to identify symbols that are randomly arranged, to pick out some known symbols they are acquainted with. the first one they pick is what they would vote for. right off their brains!
Last edited by SaiK on 13 May 2014 22:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Rahul M » 13 May 2014 22:04

muraliravi wrote:
Rahul M wrote:GVLNR giving 303 to NDA, 89 to UPA.
http://www.lensonnews.com/lonspecial/1/ ... _Q.twitter

I guess this is the one amit shah is relying upon.


Rahul Sir,

I am sure Amir Shah is not relying on a horrible pollster like GVL Rao. If I start posting all the wrong predictions by him (both prepoll and exit, it will probably take up 2 pages of this thread). I dont know who in BJP made him the in house pollster for 2009 LS. I assume he still does not hold that position.

thanks MR ji. I hope so too.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby member_28025 » 13 May 2014 22:05

abhijitm wrote:
Anantha wrote:Big loss to Milind Deora in Mumbai South. Shiv Sena Arvind Sawant is winning. This is the same place where the EJ padri was paid 10 crores and he asked people to vote for non communals and so that educated people do not mis-understand gave he Gujrat model as example of communal and poor development

I think M Deora will win - with slim margin. Thanks to MNS eating valuable NDA votes.


Isn't AAP (Meera Sanyal) eating Congi votes?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 13 May 2014 22:13

Sanku wrote:
They were with CVoter till recently, and switched due to AAP pressure and mud throwing.

Never ascribe to malice what you can to incompetency.

If they were really totally sold (partially eveyone is to survive) -- then they would not drastically revise today.


Sanku sir,

I will just add that cvoter's record itself is mediocre at best. They have got several of the polls wrong including simple assembly polls in straight bjp vs cong states.

From what I have seen, trust only csds and chanakya.

BJP should be comfortably placed if we go by these 2 polls.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby fanne » 13 May 2014 22:18

543 is also doing a good job. There sample size, reason between the lines is something like 70,000 to 80,000. This is 2 times to three times of the csds/chanakya. Maybe the shortcoming in technique (if any) and experience (if any) gets compensated by the sample size?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby BijuShet » 13 May 2014 22:20

Shamlee wrote:Isn't AAP (Meera Sanyal) eating Congi votes?

Shamleeji, Meera Sanyal is a non factor. At best she may get 20,000 votes (double of what she got last time) compared to the winner from last time who got close to 270,000 votes.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Virupaksha » 13 May 2014 22:21

fanne wrote:543 is also doing a good job. There sample size, reason between the lines is something like 70,000 to 80,000. This is 2 times to three times of the csds/chanakya. Maybe the shortcoming in technique (if any) and experience (if any) gets compensated by the sample size?

not necessarily, if you can remember his 543 (pravin patel aka albatrossinflight) numbers from 2012.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby gandharva » 13 May 2014 22:23

BJD chief whip indicates conditional support to NDA

"Keeping in view the opinion of the whole country and the state's interest, there should be no problem in providing conditional support to NDA to form government at the Centre," BJD's chief whip Pravat Tripathy told a news channel. :rotfl: :rotfl:

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-bj ... da-1988046

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 13 May 2014 22:25

Gents good news
Breaking news on
@abpnewstv - BJD may support NDA.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby saip » 13 May 2014 22:26

How long does it normally take to know the results after the counting starts? How do the EVMs work? Are they plugged into a computer and down load their data?

Anantha
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 13 May 2014 22:27

gandharva wrote:BJD chief whip indicates conditional support to NDA

"Keeping in view the opinion of the whole country and the state's interest, there should be no problem in providing conditional support to NDA to form government at the Centre," BJD's chief whip Pravat Tripathy told a news channel. :rotfl: :rotfl:

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-bj ... da-1988046


yes conditions are BJD MPs will do 10 uthak baithaks and Murga in front of Modi ji every day

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Shanmukh » 13 May 2014 22:28

Virupaksha wrote:
fanne wrote:543 is also doing a good job. There sample size, reason between the lines is something like 70,000 to 80,000. This is 2 times to three times of the csds/chanakya. Maybe the shortcoming in technique (if any) and experience (if any) gets compensated by the sample size?

not necessarily, if you can remember his 543 (pravin patel aka albatrossinflight) numbers from 2012.


Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought that his UP prediction was just his impression after each phase of polls. I don't think he did any sampling of voters in 2012.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Anantha » 13 May 2014 22:28

saip wrote:How long does it normally take to know the results after the counting starts? How do the EVMs work? Are they plugged into a computer and down load their data?


Each machine vote is recorded manually and the totals are done manually from that document. Most results will be out by 1 pm IST

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby chaanakya » 13 May 2014 22:30

saip wrote:How long does it normally take to know the results after the counting starts? How do the EVMs work? Are they plugged into a computer and down load their data?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhAp5Mb ... e=youtu.be

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby fanne » 13 May 2014 22:33

His Technique is out in the open, how he is sampling and predicting, please feel free to criticize that, compare that against other techniques...that would be much more helpful exercise, then just saying I dont trust his numbers.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby IndraD » 13 May 2014 22:54

if NDA has 275+ on own how many feel they should still get more alliance as indicated by Modi?

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 13 May 2014 23:04

Virupaksha wrote:
fanne wrote:543 is also doing a good job. There sample size, reason between the lines is something like 70,000 to 80,000. This is 2 times to three times of the csds/chanakya. Maybe the shortcoming in technique (if any) and experience (if any) gets compensated by the sample size?

not necessarily, if you can remember his 543 (pravin patel aka albatrossinflight) numbers from 2012.


Before the 4 assembly elections in 2013, all his (543) predictions were armchair psephology, it was only from the assembly polls last year he started doing ground level surveys with a team

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby gandharva » 13 May 2014 23:07

Image

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Virupaksha » 13 May 2014 23:09

fanne wrote:His Technique is out in the open, how he is sampling and predicting, please feel free to criticize that, compare that against other techniques...that would be much more helpful exercise, then just saying I dont trust his numbers.

I am not his employee nor is he paying me any money to test his "trust". Trust has to be earned.
His known track record shows he is a complete failure. I dont need to go anymore than that. As of today I agree he has been doing good marketing, but I dont confuse marketing with reliability.
Let him give his numbers for 2014 in open and we will check the result. Then based on his numbers of 2012 and 2014, his "trust" deficit can be reevaluated.

As of now, I agree that he has been a tremendous enterpreneur taking in a lot of people on twitter.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby Virupaksha » 13 May 2014 23:11

muraliravi wrote:
Virupaksha wrote:not necessarily, if you can remember his 543 (pravin patel aka albatrossinflight) numbers from 2012.


Before the 4 assembly elections in 2013, all his (543) predictions were armchair psephology, it was only from the assembly polls last year he started doing ground level surveys with a team

Doesnt matter, he put his reputation behind it and it was complete and utter nonsense.

If he was reliable and trustworthy, he should have kept his mouth firmly shut. That he blabbed isnt my problem.

I give you this, he does tremendous marketing without a product to back it.

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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections

Postby muraliravi » 13 May 2014 23:15

Virupaksha wrote:Doesnt matter, he put his reputation behind it and it was complete and utter nonsense.

If he was reliable and trustworthy, he should have kept his mouth firmly shut. That he blabbed isnt my problem.

I give you this, he does tremendous marketing without a product to back it.


Well, he was the only one to get the 4 assembly polls bang on, if you want to discuss the product.


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